RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.
..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in
south Florida.
...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin
ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the
mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance
northward through the day in response to lee
cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return
into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should
help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A
southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and
into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in
tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough.
Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances
for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS
between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings
from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and
strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized
thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind,
threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat
low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and
drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal
along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate
buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in
extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
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