RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to
severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late
evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through
the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi
Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states.
...01Z Update...
The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing
cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating
toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal
plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward
through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next
few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by
steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer
with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and
Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in
weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread
gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower
to diminish.
Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal
moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew
points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume
of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern
Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop
northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow,
unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support
re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into
central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been
varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more
discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening
low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama
and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs,
forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 03/16/2026
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