RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast.
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a shortwave trough
extending from the western Great Basin to off the central Baja
Peninsula. A lead vorticity maximum is ejecting northeastward ahead
of the main shortwave across northern Mexico, and ascent attendant
to this feature will likely begin interacting with the northwestern
periphery of the returning low-level moisture this evening. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this interaction should
support isolated thunderstorms across northwest TX and southwest OK.
Isolated hail is the primary risk with this activity.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand tonight from northwest
TX/southwest OK into much of west TX as persistent large-scale
ascent is augmented by a strengthening low-level jet and associated
warm-air advection. A few stronger storms and/or clusters remain
possible overnight, with perhaps even an embedded supercell. A
transition to a mix of hail/wind potential is still expected during
the overnight hours as the convective mode trends more linear.
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across OK
overnight, supported by strengthening warm-air advection, strong
shear, and modest buoyancy.
..Mosier.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.
Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.
One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may continue through the day into Sunday night
across parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast region.
...Parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area.
A QLCS may be ongoing Sunday morning from southeast LA into southern
MS and far southwest AL, as an initially vigorous mid/upper-level
trough/low and surface cyclone move eastward across a gradually
moistening environment. Some threat for locally damaging wind and a
brief tornado may accompany this QLCS Sunday morning, though scant
buoyancy and a tendency towards gradual dampening of the primary
shortwave trough and surface cyclone may result in a weakening trend
with the initial QLCS.
Despite the expected weakening trend, deep-layer flow/shear across
the warm sector will remain favorable for organized convection, and
continued low-level moistening may allow for deep convection to
redevelop near the Gulf Coast. Destabilization will likely remain
limited, but if sufficient buoyancy can be maintained, then some
threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado could evolve
across south AL/GA and the FL Panhandle into the afternoon, and
potentially spread into parts of the FL Peninsula by Sunday night.
Another area of storm redevelopment may evolve across parts of MS/AL
during the afternoon and evening, in association with the primary
midlevel low. The extent of recovery in the wake of the morning QLCS
remains uncertain, but cooling temperatures aloft could support
development of a few strong storms and potentially an isolated
severe threat.
..Dean.. 02/13/2026
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