RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.
As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and
well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.
...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.
Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/07/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.
...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a
related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and
eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal
surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA
during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest,
diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass
(lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak
surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with
around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely
organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before
quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Weinman.. 03/07/2026
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