RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
Minimal changes were made to the thunder area over parts of the
Carolinas given the latest frontal position. Weak destabilization
has occurred over parts of the eastern Carolinas amid strong diurnal
heating of a modestly moist air mass. A strong storm or two remains
possible this afternoon ahead of the front beneath enhanced
mid-level flow. However, the coverage and duration of any stronger
storms appears limited. See the prior outlook for more info.
..Lyons.. 03/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/
...Coastal Carolinas/Georgia...
A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower
Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface
cold front sags across the southeast states. As the front
approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass,
showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous. This
process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong
storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves
out to sea. Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall
severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
To the north of a strong midlevel high over the southern Rockies, a
shortwave trough will move inland over WA during the day and
progress quickly eastward to MN/western ON by early Thursday.
Cyclogenesis in advance of this midlevel trough will help draw a
modifying air mass north and northeastward from the southern Plains
to the mid MS Valley. Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday,
moistening near/above the surface could be sufficient for elevated
convection in a warm advection zone across parts of the Midwest.
Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will be possible across FL along a
dissipating front, local sea breeze circulations and any lingering
convective outflow or differential heating zones. Isolated
lightning flashes will also be possible with low-topped convection
during the day in the post-frontal environment along and west of the
Cascades in WA.
..Thompson.. 03/23/2026
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