RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east
toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs,
upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become
flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build
over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the
Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in
the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but
the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be
located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch
eastward toward the Mid-South.
Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from
central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated
convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front
late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK
within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is
expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further
south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be
limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude
destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and
cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country
throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could
develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days
4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf
Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated
thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday
afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the
Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should
remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to
convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
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