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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may affect south Florida this morning.
...South FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a persistent large upper trough
over the eastern states, with a significant shortwave trough digging
southeastward over LA/MS. This feature will quickly rotate across
the Gulf and approach FL by early afternoon. Strong large-scale
ascent ahead of the feature could be sufficient for showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the moist and marginally unstable airmass
along/ahead of a cold front over far southern FL, the Straits, and
near-shore waters. This threat will end by early afternoon as the
front moves off the east coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and
marginal instability should limit any severe threat.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/15/2026
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