RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.
Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of
multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the
southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and
southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone
will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the
second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front
will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on
Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX
Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.
...Northwest TX to eastern KS...
Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears
slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse
rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak
convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will
increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south,
with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective
development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast
TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low,
there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable
environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated
convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest
OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight.
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through
the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an
increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of
the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream
in the early morning Wednesday.
..Grams.. 03/02/2026
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