RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid
Atlantic States this afternoon...
* LOCATIONS...
Eastern Virginia
Eastern North Carolina
Maryland
A small part of northeast South Carolina
District of Columbia
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few tornadoes, a couple strong
* SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield
potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few
strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic
States.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Thompson.. 03/16/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA......
...SUMMARY...
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could
become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
...Southeast States...
An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley,
with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the
Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of
thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western
SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these
storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and
embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms
have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and
strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a
severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale
ascent arrives.
...Mid Atlantic States into NY...
Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE
values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid
level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold
front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to
strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into
central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening.
Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear
values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and
several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially
from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be
present.
In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over
VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level
moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level
winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary
risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms
after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern
PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England.
..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON D.C. AND
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield
potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few
strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a
separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have
greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the
Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with
the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this
afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern
SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See
MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.
Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving
across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon
severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low
60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line.
Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded
tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain
spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer
destabilization over eastern NY into New England.
In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped
convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the
Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and
persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying
lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb
jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a
renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line.
Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts
should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity
through this evening.
...GA/FL...
Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will
persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented
convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level
convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region,
there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist
in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through
mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this
evening.
..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026
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