RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cool
and dry airmass over much of the nation will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development. No severe threat is
expected today and tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/11/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Stable and/or dry conditions will preclude lightning-producing
convection across nearly the entire CONUS. One exception is along
the West Coast from the Bay Area to southwest OR on Wednesday night
into early morning Thursday. A broad upper trough will move east
across the northeast Pacific. Within the low-level warm conveyor
ahead of it, a swath of low-topped convection should reach the coast
between 08-12Z Thursday. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop amid
the onshore flow regime and support an isolated thunderstorm risk.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Thursday morning to
afternoon, from central CA to western OR. Embedded within a broader
upper trough initially off the West Coast, a leading shortwave
impulse should eject northeast and move inland by Thursday night.
The attendant low-level warm conveyor will be most pronounced
Thursday morning before diminishing as it separates southward in CA.
While a few lightning flashes are possible amid flimsy instability
within this regime, mid-level lapse rates will steepen in its wake
with approach of the cold core. This should focus isolated,
low-topped thunderstorms from northern CA through western OR on
Thursday afternoon. Small hail may accompany a storm in the northern
Sacramento Valley but scant buoyancy should limit severe potential.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent
EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday.
The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the
downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central
Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance
remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and
progress it into the South-Central States.
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late
weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the
South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days.
Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI
NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15
percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS
trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or
mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest
towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest
Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may
develop around mid-week next week.
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