RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.
...Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity...
A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains
to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced
westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the
Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the
expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central
Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX
along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity
within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will
be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow
will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger
destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse
rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface
boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of
strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the
Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A
strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the
cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and
warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an
eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.
Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains
into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture
return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into
the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop
across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface
cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger
southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.
However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given
the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.
Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as
details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become
better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and
Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting
broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist
into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper
trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in
medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and
associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
Read more
