RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place
across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure
will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front
advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a
large surface high will settle into the central states. This will
reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and
tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from
the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface
cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains
as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight
toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in
response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing
for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor
boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal
plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and
weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude
thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will
swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain
toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow
convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal
and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very
weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a
general thunderstorm area.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
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