RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor
satellite imagery this morning over the central High Plains will
move eastward towards the Mid MS Valley by tonight. As this occurs,
a narrow swath of around 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will
overspread parts of the southern Plains to lower OH Valley.
Large-scale ascent should remain modest with this system, resulting
in only a weak surface low developing northeastward along a
quasi-stationary surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of
the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing
into generally the low to mid 60s. This increasing moisture beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should
support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow
corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability
should develop across north-central into central TX where stronger
daytime heating is expected.
Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest in closer proximity to
the mid-level jet and surface front from eastern OK into AR,
southern MO, and the lower OH Valley. Effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection across these areas.
However, convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad
ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the
surface front. Additionally, ongoing elevated convection this
morning across the northern OK/southeast KS vicinity and related
cloudiness may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream. Farther south into north/central TX, weaker deep-layer
shear may limit updraft organization to some extent.
Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists today and tonight. An
isolated hail threat should persist with ongoing elevated convection
this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and
southern IL. By this afternoon, surface-based thunderstorm
development should occur closer to the surface front. A mix of
supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging
winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates
can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not
forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km
SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any
sustained supercells/clusters near the surface boundary.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/04/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains
southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A
cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern
Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F
with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe
threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable
concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current
thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two
areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into
northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A
15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in
later outlooks.
On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the
western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal
severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.
...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday
across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture
return is forecast to take place over the southern and central
Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be
possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be
possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any
severe threat will be the greatest.
On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an
upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An
associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of
the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the
trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This
combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered
severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe
threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central
Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the
Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as
the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is
considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this
extended range.
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