RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...CA/Great Basin...
Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.
...Southeast...
Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely
driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a
dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast
to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA.
Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a
lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity.
However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given
midlevel drying after about 15z.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas.
...West TX Vicinity...
Friday will begin with upper level ridging centered over the
central/southern High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow
across the western Gulf into west TX will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northwestward into the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin, and
northward into the TX South Plains and Red River Valley. Meanwhile,
an upper trough oriented over southern CA/northwest Mexico will
steadily shift east toward the southern Rockies by early Saturday.
As this occurs, the upper ridge will shift east and midlevel
moistening/cooling will occur after 00z. Furthermore, deep-layer
southwesterly flow will increase across western TX.
Elevated instability is expected to develop by late afternoon/early
evening across the region in response to increasing moisture and
cooling aloft. As large-scale ascent overspreads the southern
Rockies/High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Convection will
likely remain elevated given post-sunset timing and nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer. Nevertheless, supercell wind
profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 3km are present
in forecast soundings, along with steep midlevel lapse rates.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce marginally
severe hail to near 1-inch diameter during the evening/overnight
hours.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun -- Texas to the Southeast...
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day
4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer
moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a
surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will
deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before
moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front,
first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday
night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and
Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end
severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak
destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector.
However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is
unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement
of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt
trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary,
training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These
uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern
U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from
the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the
period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive
upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing
over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond
Monday.
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