SPC Mar 10, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as
a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central
U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies. 

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S.
will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies
and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this
occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX
into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across
the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and
shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast
across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential
could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as
the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack
of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the
Midwest.  

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day
7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop
across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low
given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system
moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears
low on Day 8/Tuesday.


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