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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and
central Gulf states.
...Mid-South/Central Gulf States...
Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the
southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into
central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by
10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight
hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are
forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a
result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation
as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the
southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.
Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into
portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew
points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should
spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of
the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is
increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just
before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then
potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF
members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm
clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time.
Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and
hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat
will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward
northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA
during the evening.
...Southern AZ...
Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just
south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for
large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will
develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was
given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this
region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle
to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could
accompany the strongest convection.
..Darrow.. 03/09/2026
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