RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today.
...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly
transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at
500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft
partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm
sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized
low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is
ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast
Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across
additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even
with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could
occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across
parts of the near-coastal Northeast.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will
feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances
across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand
north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the
Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain
generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the
potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each
day.
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