RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1015 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.
..15_ows.. 02/12/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.
.... 02/12/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1118 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas into south central Oklahoma.
...Texas and Oklahoma...
A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from
southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through
the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern
Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low
development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary
layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.
Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across
western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid
moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization
is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE
values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into
central OK.
Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With
temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial
convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become
elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly
flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization.
Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel
lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk
with convection over western TX into south central OK, though a
couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are
surface-based.
Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast
extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.
A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the
nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse
rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.
..15_ows.. 02/12/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of
Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind
gusts are the most likely hazard.
...Synopsis...
A strong positively tilted, southern-stream shortwave trough is
forecast to extend from the central High Plains southwestward into
northern Mexico early Saturday. A pair of vorticity maxima will be
embedded within this shortwave: the lead vorticity max moving
through OK into the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks with the other farther
southwest at the base of the trough over northern Mexico. This
shortwave is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the
southern Plains throughout the day, with the vorticity max (and
associated jetlet) remaining within the base of the trough
throughout the period. This evolution will result in strong forcing
for ascent across TX and the Lower MS Valley as the shortwave moves
eastward.
Mass response ahead of this system will result in significant
low-level moisture advection across TX and the Lower MS Valley, with
60s dewpoints likely in place by late Saturday afternoon across much
of east TX and adjacent far west LA. Mid 60s dewpoints are possible
from the middle TX Coast through the Brazos Valley. Thunderstorms,
including some severe storms, are expected as the progressing
shortwave interacts with this moist and modestly buoyant airmass.
...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across
northwest TX and western OK, supported by strong warm-air advection
in the vicinity of a sharpening frontal zone. Buoyancy will be
modest, but strong deep-layer vertical shear suggests a few
organized updrafts capable of hail are possible. These storms will
likely be elevated, but localized ascent attendant to the lead
vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis (and associated
potential for a more linear storm mode) could still result in a gust
or two reaching the surface.
Additional thunderstorms will likely begin during the afternoon
across the Edwards Plateau vicinity as the shortwave trough moves
into the region, resulting in increased large-scale ascent as well
as supporting an eastward push of the cold front. Thunderstorms are
expected along this front as it surges eastward, with storms likely
remaining close to the primary frontal zone. As such, a strong
convective line appears probable. However, despite the airmass
modification mentioned in synopsis, modest heating and poor lapse
rates will support only modest destabilization over the warm sector.
This should temper updraft strength and the overall severe
potential. Damaging gusts within the frontal convective appears to
be the primary risk, which could extend as far east as southwestern
MS and southeast LA given the expectation that modest buoyancy will
remain in these regions throughout the night.
Moderate to strong low-level shear supports a low-probability
tornado risk from the middle TX Coast into southwest LA, but only if
updrafts can be maintained ahead of the front. Confidence in this
scenario is currently low given the warm temperatures aloft and
resulting modest buoyancy within the warm sector.
..Mosier.. 02/12/2026
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