RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central
U.S. today, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle in over the western and central Gulf Coast states, as a front
moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front in south Florida, where surface
dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In the early to mid
afternoon, thunderstorm development will be possible along and near
the front. Deep-layer and instability are expected to be
insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/18/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing and expansive surface high pressure will
envelop much of the CONUS on Monday. Continental low-level
trajectories and cold temperatures will result in a dry and stable
boundary layer, precluding thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move
southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this
occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains.
This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing
low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf
moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period.
Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and
warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm
advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early
Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front,
thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
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