RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.
An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and
modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).
Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.
...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.
..Guyer/Jirak.. 10/14/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave
disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast,
eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the
developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the
southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection
will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some
severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.
...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...
Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will
develop over south-central IL during the day and spread
east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms
will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS
River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This
early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of
persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector
destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected
poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low
levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support
transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection
develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing
low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this
activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across
south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado
probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale
trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day
convection.
Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the
nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms
shift east/northeast.
...Southern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern
OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the
region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow
below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also
will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes.
Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger
storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
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