RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A cyclonic flow pattern will remain over the U.S. today, as a
large-scale upper-level trough moves through the flow into the
southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle into the Great Plains. This airmass will reinforce cold and
dry conditions across much of the nation. Thunderstorms may occur
offshore from the central Gulf Coast or eastward off the coast of
south Florida. However, no thunderstorms are forecast across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/17/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S., moving offshore
the Atlantic coast Sunday night. Meanwhile, broad upper troughing
will be maintained across much of the CONUS, reinforced by shortwave
impulses over the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula
through the afternoon, while a second cold front moves southeast
across parts of the Midwest and Plains overnight.
A dearth of boundary layer moisture and a cold/stable airmass will
preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS. The
exception may be across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula and
the Keys. Modest boundary layer moisture will support weak buoyancy
near the coast and just offshore as the upper trough and surface
front provide forcing for ascent. A few lightning flashes are
possible, but the bulk of thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain offshore where better instability will support deeper
updrafts.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will spread across much of the CONUS on Monday
behind a prior cold frontal passage. Continental trajectories will
keep Gulf moisture cut-off, and a cold/stable airmass will preclude
thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
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