RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the southwest states today, with
broad troughing over the east. Dry and stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorms over most areas today, with the only area of
some risk being over southeast FL late tonight. Given the weak
forcing, minimal CAPE, and unfavorable timing, 10% coverage of
thunderstorms is not anticipated.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/19/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH
Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN
Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and
into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend
southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F
dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models
appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as
such predictability is low. However, there is at least some
potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to
upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup
given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm
sector.
This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with
high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move
across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying
across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As
this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest,
with little overall severe potential for those days.
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