RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.
...TX to SE States...
A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the
CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into
the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of
the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and
tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.
...Southwest States...
A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this
afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting
northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states. Model guidance agrees
that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late
afternoon and through the evening. A few of the HREF members
indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
over southeast AZ. However, forecast soundings do not appear
sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated
Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central
Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level
trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into
the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop
across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will
lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend
from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.
...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and
Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead
of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive
cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but
sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the
ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area
where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with
largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado
threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest
threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some
threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly
uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid
rich low-level moisture.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.
...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
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