RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central
California. Severe weather is not forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low within a positive-tilt upper trough will slowly move
eastward toward the West Coast today, with abundant midlevel
moisture and lift overspreading much of CA. Within the moist plume,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability during the day,
mostly elevated in nature. Despite strong veering wind profiles with
height, shear is expected to be ineffective as SBCAPE remains near
zero.
Elsewhere, an upper trough will remain over the eastern states with
northwest flow from the Plains across the MS Valley. A surface high
will remain over much of the east, with little to no instability for
thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/13/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential should remain negligible across the CONUS,
outside of coastal southern CA. A closed upper low will fully cutoff
from the westerlies by Friday night, offshore of southern CA.
Low-topped, elevated convection may increase with slight
strengthening of the low-level warm conveyor late as the low drifts
east. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and buoyancy should be
flimsy, likely supporting very isolated thunderstorm probabilities
near 10 percent.
..Grams.. 11/13/2025
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