RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...
CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.
...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an
increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.
As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.
At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.
Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.
..Kerr.. 05/02/2025
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA....
AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through
tonight.
Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of
central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly
confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme
buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional
tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced
low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical
stretching.
...20z...
The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of
the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe
hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of
the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and
Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker
vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm
remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should
curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today.
Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to
occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area
this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk
for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust
potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and
the SLGT has been removed.
Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of
the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells,
are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds
and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern
CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over
parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are
possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly
low-level jet will support the development of additional storms
ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose
a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight
across parts of central OK and the Red River valley.
..Lyons.. 05/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/
...OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave
trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and
central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and
moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with
sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to
spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.
...Central TX...
A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into
central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture
along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000
J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least
isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms
that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.
Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern
Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.
...TX Panhandle into OK...
A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the
Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms
over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track
southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over
the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are
expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large
hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected
to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a
risk of large hail.
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