RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia
northward into extreme southeast Virginia.
... Overview ...
A western ridge will support northwest midlevel flow across the
eastern US on Monday. Within that flow, a broad shortwave trough
will move through the Northeast out into the Atlantic Ocean. At the
surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will quickly move
east-northeast, dragging a cold front south along the East Coast.
The cold front will be draped across the northern Florida Peninsula
Tuesday morning.
... Eastern Georgia northward to extreme Southeast Virginia ...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the
southward moving cold front. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain lean as veered low-level flow ahead of the front acts to
limit convergence along the front. The airmass ahead of the front
will become weakly unstable during the afternoon, with the degree of
instability strongly dependent upon the quality of boundary layer
moisture. However, even if boundary layer moisture is greater than
00Z guidance indicates, generally neutral height tendency, poor
midlevel lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear will further hinder
sustained robust thunderstorm updrafts. As such, organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
..Marsh/Wendt.. 03/23/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the
Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western
Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental
U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist
airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected
to be weak, and no severe threat is expected.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move to the Eastern Seaboard on
Wednesday. The southern part of the trough will be over the Florida
Peninsula, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon. Instability is forecast to be relatively
weak across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday suggesting that
storms will likely remain below severe limits. Elsewhere, no severe
threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2026
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