RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.
Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.
..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/07/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Discussion...
Mid-level ridging will deamplify across the western CONUS on Sunday
as a mid-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. In the
wake of the surface cold front/surface low, cooling temperatures
aloft will lead to weak convective destabilization. A few lightning
flashes are possible late Sunday evening into early Sunday morning
across western Oregon and southwest Washington.
Beneath this ridge, an upper-low will move east across northern
Mexico. Some of the cold air aloft on the northern periphery of this
surface low may overspread southeast Arizona and southwest New
Mexico with some weak instability developing. Scattered to
widespread storms are likely across much of northern Mexico. A few
of these storms may spread into southern Arizona and southwest New
Mexico.
East of the Rockies, a dry airmass and high pressure will keep
conditions stable and limit thunderstorm activity.
..Bentley.. 02/07/2026
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