RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
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