RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper
trough, with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the Interior
West today. The first of the two mid-level impulses will approach
the Rockies while the second impulse impinges on the CA coastline,
especially late in the period. Cooler temperatures aloft, associated
with each impulse, will overspread both the central/southern Rockies
and the CA coast, resulting in scant buoyancy. While instability
will be meager in both regions, strong deep-layer ascent with the
aforementioned buoyancy may support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Midwest to the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will build into the
central CONUS ahead of a larger trough pivoting across southern
California and the Southwest. A frontal zone will persist from the
Ohio Valley to north Texas with low to mid 60s dewpoints to the
south of the front.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms with small hail may be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across the Lower Ohio Valley, on the nose of
the low-level jet. A few strong storms may continue through the
morning, but should wane by the afternoon as the low-level jet
continues to veer/weaken and the thunderstorm activity moves east of
the better instability axis. While some surface based instability is
forecast along the frontal zone during the afternoon, subsidence in
the wake of the morning activity should suppress any additional
surface based thunderstorm activity.
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may develop along the frontal zone in
the southern Plains as modest enhancement of the low-level jet
occurs ahead of the next trough. However, storm coverage appears
isolated at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/16/2025
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