RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys today.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will deepen and pivot eastward over the
eastern half of the CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the
base of the large-scale trough will move across the eastern Gulf and
FL today. This will provide large-scale ascent atop a stalled
frontal boundary across the southern FL Peninsula. Adequate moisture
will support modest buoyancy. However, lackluster lapse rates/warm
temperatures through the midlevels will preclude strong-storm
potential, though a few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
...South Florida...
Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the
upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong
surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most
part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore
around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep
convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor
lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look
favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly
buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the
southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10
percent.
..Darrow.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the
central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge
along the west coast. Model guidance suggests that low-level
moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable
conditions. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.
..Hart.. 01/14/2026
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