RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.
...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.
..Weinman.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Gulf Coast...
An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/12/2025
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