RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AN SOUTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.
... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...
As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.
If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.
... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...
Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.
... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.
... Southwest Texas ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.
A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe
gusts.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.
...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
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