RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of
west to north-central Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed
max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist
across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse
rates aloft.
At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface
temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints
will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into
central TX by 12Z Monday.
As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will
move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air
mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be
substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e
advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will
be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As
such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into
western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where
instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely
after about 18Z.
Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,
surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort
Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to
stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form
along the weak boundary.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day.
...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur.
A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where
cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
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