RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly
tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread
most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development
will be limited over most locales given static stability. However,
through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the
developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to
a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA
coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over
southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely
elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe
potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming
week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the
southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day
4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast
Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and
associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development
over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this
point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may
foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is
plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may
develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday)
time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support
greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance
agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the
introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
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