RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will
continue through the early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast
northeastward into the southern Appalachians.
...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob.
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.
A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.
..Smith/Halbert.. 01/10/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.
...20Z Update...
Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper
Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through
parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later
this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually
diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has
encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward.
This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH
VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe
probabilities have been removed with this update.
..Wendt.. 01/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/
...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob.
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.
A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move
across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the
Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night.
The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at
the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the
FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential.
An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will
move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid
Atlantic through the day. In association with these features,
shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm
potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible
buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated
lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.
..Dean.. 01/10/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm
development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to
move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts
of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of
these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is
expected to limit lightning potential.
..Dean.. 01/10/2026
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