RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over CA this morning will move
east-northeastward across the Great Basin/Southwest today while
acquiring a negative tilt. Although low-level moisture will remain
quite limited, cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates
aloft associated with the upper trough/low may support convection
deep enough to generate occasional lightning flashes across parts of
the Four Corners states into WY. A separate upper trough will
approach the West Coast late tonight, with large-scale ascent
associated with a strong mid-level jet overspreading parts of CA.
Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/ahead of a cold front tonight
through early Monday morning across this area. For all regions, weak
instability is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms,
although gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/16/2025
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