RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...20Z Update...
No changes.
..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move
southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be
accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates,
but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable
buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.
An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach
southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible
to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential
appears low at this time.
Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible
across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak
forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region.
A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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