RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.
...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/22/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail is possible from Sunday late afternoon into
Sunday night across parts of west to north-central Texas.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress from the Southwest
into the central/southern High Plains through early Monday. This
will induce a weak surface wave over eastern CO, displaced well
north of a front that is currently along the Upper TX Coast to south
TX. This boundary should remain quasi-stationary into Sunday
afternoon before gradually advancing north on Sunday night over
south-central TX.
...TX Trans-Pecos to north TX...
A confined plume of surface-based destabilization should develop
into the TX Trans-Pecos by late afternoon, with otherwise elevated
buoyancy across western to central TX. Severe potential should
commence towards late afternoon with initial cells that may be
sustained along the eastern periphery of the surface-based
instability corridor before becoming elevated downstream. Within a
persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, regenerative
elevated convection is expected through Monday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates appear modest, but adequate low-level moisture should be
present amid strong effective bulk shear to pose an isolated severe
hail risk. A few supercells might occur early, with a predominately
messy cluster mode by Sunday night. This setup could warrant a
mesoscale corridor of greater hail probabilities in the Permian
Basin vicinity, with lower confidence in the overnight extent of
severe potential towards central and north TX.
..Grams.. 11/22/2025
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