RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon
into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central
Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the
expected hazards.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated with an expansive
trough east of the Rockies and a ridge over the West. Associated
with one of the several shortwave impulses embedded within the broad
trough, primary surface cyclone should track from the Upper OH
Valley towards the Northeast/southern New England coast. A cold
front will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and off the
Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Monday.
...Central FL to Southeast VA...
As has been the case for the past few days, some models have
struggled with run-to-run consistency in the degree of convective
coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Latest trends have
settled back into indicating a drier/more mixed boundary layer ahead
of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be
confined from central FL to southeast GA where MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg should be common by Sunday afternoon. While low-level shear
will be weak, strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies should
support a threat for isolated severe wind/hail.
Farther north, decreasing surface-based instability should be
compensated by stronger deep-layer shear. This will support a more
conditional risk for severe, with mainly marginal intensities. Storm
coverage may be quite limited through sunset before isolated
convection develops during the evening as increasing mid-level
height falls occur just prior to the front shifting offshore.
..Grams.. 11/08/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm risk appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.
...Discussion...
With a surface cyclone near the Northeast/southern New England coast
on Monday morning, the attendant full-latitude cold front will
likely have moved across the Eastern Seaboard by about 12Z,
curtailing thunder potential in the CONUS. A few lightning flashes
are possible early within snow bands over Lake Michigan and Erie,
supported by very cold mid-level temperatures within the highly
amplified eastern trough.
..Grams.. 11/08/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be negligible through much of the
period in the wake of a continental airmass overspreading the Gulf
on D3/Monday. Modified return flow should slowly build across the
western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass
approaching the northwest Gulf next weekend. Guidance still lacks
run-to-run continuity and timing spread is large, but consensus
indications are for an upper-level trough to progress into the
Southwest around next weekend. This could yield a return to severe
potential in the South-Central States after D8/Saturday.
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