RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today
across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface
cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the
central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the
base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage
showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas
through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to
support severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the
central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very
cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of
winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but
a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast
vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold
front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday.
Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm
potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and
the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the
weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding
thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.
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