RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.
...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Southeast...
A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward
quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands
from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the
secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow
aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over
the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should
also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern
Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will
sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore
early Thursday.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of
the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective
cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm
sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their
wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass
could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms
in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC
into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse
rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should
limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore
Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions.
...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts...
Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped
convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite
limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still,
strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray
convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of
lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.
..Lyons.. 11/25/2025
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