RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.
..Thornton.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.
Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.
Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2025
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