RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across
portions of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
...MT/ND/SD...
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough over ID
tracking east-northeastward. This system will emerge onto the
Plains of eastern MT/western Dakotas by late afternoon today, when
strong heating will result in a corridor of surface temperatures
near 90F along the MT/ND border ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorms will intensify in vicinity of this front through the
afternoon, tracking quickly eastward into parts of western/central
ND/SD by 00z. Morning CAM solutions suggest storms will organize
into a line with the risk of severe wind gusts. Given the strength
of the low and mid-level flow near the front, that scenario seems
plausible. Therefore have added a SLGT risk to parts of this
region.
...CO/KS/NE...
South of the primary severe threat, a secondary area of concern will
develop this afternoon as storms develop over the mountains of
central CO and spread eastward into the Plains. This activity will
be high-based and in a weakly unstable environment. Nevertheless,
strong outflow winds will be possible with the activity, spreading
eastward into western NE and northwest KS during the evening.
...UT/Western CO...
Considerable low-level moisture will remain over UT today, leading
to another round of strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Deep-layer
shear remains sufficient for rotating storms capable of damaging
wind gusts and hail. Activity should spread into western CO by
early evening before weakening.
..Hart/Broyles.. 08/30/2026
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