RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.
...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will be prevalent across much of the CONUS
as a broad region of high pressure builds over the eastern Plains/OH
Valley in the wake of a strong frontal passage during the D2/Friday
to early D3/Saturday period. This front is forecast to reside across
the northern Gulf and into the northern FL peninsula by 12 UTC
Saturday, and will continue to migrate south through the day before
stalling over south FL during the evening/overnight hours. Although
forcing for ascent should steadily diminish given the frontolytic
nature of the boundary, weak low-level ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment may support a few thunderstorms.
Displacement from stronger flow aloft will limit storm organization
and longevity, which should preclude organized convection. Based on
extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, as well as ensemble QPF
signals, the best potential for thunderstorms should emerge across
the Lake Okeechobee vicinity and areas westward to the FL Gulf
coast.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the
upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather
potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains
limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions
continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward
translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards
the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only
result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but
will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant
uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly
above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the
D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is
expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses
embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the
returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions,
some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday
into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across
the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front
pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface
low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among
deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the
evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments
beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as
long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance,
show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies
limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising
at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it
remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat
will substantially improve.
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