RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today
as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the
western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be
associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through
the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and
Upper Midwest.
Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act
to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across
the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception
currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting
modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in
the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering
some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently
been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for
occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast
FL Coast throughout the day.
Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast
tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift
associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper
trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region
free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do
show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is
low potential for a flash or two across this region.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed for the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today
as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the
western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be
associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through
the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and
Upper Midwest.
Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act
to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across
the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception
currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting
modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in
the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering
some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently
been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for
occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast
FL Coast throughout the day.
Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast
tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift
associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper
trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region
free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do
show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is
low potential for a flash or two across this region.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys on Wednesday.
...Southeast FL and the Keys...
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough encompassing the
eastern half of the CONUS, a midlevel shortwave trough will advance
eastward across the Gulf of America toward the FL Peninsula. In
response, an initially stalled front will move eastward across
Southeast FL and the Keys during the afternoon. Most guidance (with
the exception of the RAP) depicts marginally sufficient buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front during the
day. A secondary/stronger cold front will approach western FL late
in the period, though thunderstorms are not currently expected owing
to limited buoyancy.
..Weinman.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and
the Keys on Thursday.
...Southern FL and the Keys...
A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Southeast
into the western Atlantic during the day, while a related cold front
moves southeastward across far southern FL and the Keys. While
buoyancy will be limited, frontal convergence and at least modest
midlevel height falls should support isolated thunderstorms during
the morning and afternoon. Despite ample deep-layer shear, the weak
buoyancy should tend to limit updraft strength and related severe
potential.
..Weinman.. 01/13/2026
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