RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.
...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this
afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.
Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.
Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.
...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.
...20Z Update...
Relatively minor changes were made in portions of Central Texas
where stabilization has occurred behind earlier-day convection. A
line of convection moving into East Texas is still expected to
intensify later this afternoon as the shortwave trough progresses
east and the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Some
semi-discrete/discrete activity also remains possible in the
vicinity of San Antonio. Outflow pushing south and deep-layer shear
parallel to the outflow continues to suggest large hail and damaging
wind potential will remain isolated. See the previous discussion for
additional information.
..Wendt.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this
afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.
Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.
Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.
...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern
Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential
for a strong tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge
with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build
across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the
mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken
through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the
western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.
...Southeast...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability
is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong
low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential
where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows
varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line
becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps
it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough
and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain
more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this
line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and
northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and
strong low-level jet overlap.
12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South
Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the
forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern
North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat
Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool
Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE
around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this
time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but
no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.
...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2026
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