RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail,
isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible.
Marginally severe storms may also develop from Thursday evening into
the overnight across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
...Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, flow will become southwesterly across the Great
Plains on Thursday, as a strong low pressure system moves though the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a low will deepen across eastern
Colorado, as south-southeasterly flow strengthens across the
southern and central Plains. Low-level moisture will advect
northward across Oklahoma, northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle
during the afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop across west
Texas as a thermal/instability axis sets up over west-central Texas.
Scattered storms are expected to initiate near the dryline on the
Caprock in the late afternoon, moving eastward into the southern
Plains during the early evening. As moisture advection continues,
additional storms should develop further north into far southern
Kansas during the evening.
Late afternoon forecast soundings in west Texas from Big Spring to
Childress have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg,
and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. A tornado
threat, along with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the most intense cells. The storms are expected to
move eastward into western Oklahoma and the Lower Rolling Plains of
northwest Texas during the evening, with additional cells developing
across southern Kansas. The strengthening low-level jet will help
sustain a threat for hail and severe gusts.
Further north across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley,
moisture and instability will gradually increase during the evening
as a low-level jet strengthens. Scattered elevated storms are
expected to develop near the low-level jet around midnight and
should increase in coverage during the overnight period. MUCAPE in
the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the
7 to 8 C/km range should be favorable for hail. The severe threat is
expected to persist through late in the period.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into
the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot
mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from
central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the
moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late
afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow.
Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of
producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest
potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas
north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A
severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.
On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the
north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the
Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front
during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a
marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon
over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the
Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.
...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to
move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of
the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary
from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to
the south of the front during the afternoon.
On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place
from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow
again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be
favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that
heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong
upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central
U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central
Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the
forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model
guidance.
Read more
