RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley.
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper ridge will continue to shift east over the next
48-72 hours towards the south-central CONUS. As this occurs, zonal
flow across the northern Rockies will promote lee troughing and a
strengthening southerly return flow regime through Thursday.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s may spread as far north as
southern Michigan by early Thursday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development is anticipated
along the cold front as it pushes east/southeast into the returning
moisture.
Strong low-level forcing along the frontal boundary will likely
favor convective bands and upscale growth into the evening hours
with a predominant severe/damaging wind threat. However, some
deterministic solutions suggest a combination of 40-50 knot
deep-layer shear vectors oriented off the frontal boundary over the
Midwest, lingering pre-frontal capping, and limited broad-scale
ascent through a deep layer may promote semi-discrete convection.
While confidence in this scenario is limited at this range, a threat
for sustained supercells with a significant hail, and perhaps some
tornado, threat could emerge.
Based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble guidance, the
severe risk appears greatest across central IL into IN and western
OH where strong QPF and convective environment signals (SCP values
of 4-6) are noted. However, some severe risk is expected
southwestward along the front into MO and far eastern KS where
convection may be more isolated. A damaging wind threat may persist
into parts of PA and WV overnight, but waning buoyancy eastward
towards the Appalachians limits confidence in the eastern extent of
the severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the
remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the
central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on
D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the
East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates
across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the
eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front -
combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the
western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for
much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely
promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around
the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and
ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper
ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over
the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather
potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early
D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
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