RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.
...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for
isolated/sustained convection is apparent.
...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave
trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass
resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to
northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate
instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid
afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support
a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind
gusts associated with supercells.
On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves
through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should
remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale
ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen
the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most
likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be
in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central
U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern
states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow.
Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability
will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that
scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be
supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting
northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be
associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting
scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist
sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be
maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas
northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few
tornadoes remain possible.
On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast
to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances
quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower
Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of
the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the
spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this
area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.
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