RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder
probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold
front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the
forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term
mesoscale details.
..Wendt.. 03/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.
...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.
...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
...Midwest and Great Lakes region...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central Plains
northeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and evening on
Thursday. At the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet
will overspread the Midwest ahead of a deepening surface low
tracking northeastward across IA into WI. Showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an
eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period.
In the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are
that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates -- yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery
ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low
and northward-moving warm front. Despite some uncertainty with the
early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged
clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized
clusters -- posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. As the details become more clear regarding early-day
convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe
probabilities may eventually be needed.
...Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys...
The latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of
broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. While relatively weaker
forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with
southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid
weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective
shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.
..Weinman.. 03/31/2026
Read more
