RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and
central Gulf states.
...Mid-South/Central Gulf States...
Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the
southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into
central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by
10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight
hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are
forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a
result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation
as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the
southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.
Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into
portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew
points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should
spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of
the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is
increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just
before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then
potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF
members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm
clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time.
Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and
hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat
will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward
northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA
during the evening.
...Southern AZ...
Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just
south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for
large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will
develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was
given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this
region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle
to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could
accompany the strongest convection.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.
...East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity...
A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper
troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of
the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave
trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the
northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of
these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend
from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a
cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern
Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through
the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the
central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.
Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf
moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of
the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection
regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in
how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with
northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat
stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where
richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will
support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear
convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow
parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent
overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado
potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the
vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary
surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains
highly uncertain.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu...
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu
across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward
the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold
front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from
GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be
ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result
in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse
rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential
appears less than 15 percent.
...Days 5-8/Fri-Mon...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a
prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary
layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to
deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some
moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold
front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This
could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the
south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better
moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
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