RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama.
...MS/AL/GA...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west
TN/northern MS. Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has
resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.
These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air
mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s. This should limit
downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.
In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow
gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into
east-central MS and central/northern AL. Large-scale forcing will
be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be
sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by
early afternoon. Those storms that form will be in an environment
of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient
deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.
Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak
forcing mechanisms. Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are
the main concern.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited.
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited.
Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.
...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
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