RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...
A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3
km.
Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.
...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...
A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday
night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow
upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance.
Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to shift east across the
central U.S. on Wednesday, becoming oriented from the Upper Great
Lakes to the central Gulf coast vicinity by Thursday morning. An
embedded shortwave within the base of this trough will move from the
southern Plains to the Deep South, while the northern branch of the
trough moves across the Midwest. Strong deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread a broad warm sector across much of the Midwest
and southern U.S. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast
through the period, tracking across much of the Mid/Lower MS, OH and
TN Valleys.
Uncertainty exists regarding where convection may be ongoing
Wednesday morning, and some potential exists for widespread
thunderstorm activity across parts of the Midwest. As a result, it
is uncertain how far north quality thermodynamics will exist.
Nevertheless, it appears likely at least some severe risk will exist
across the Ohio Valley given favorable boundary-layer moisture and
impressive vertical shear profiles. Further southwest toward the
Lower MS Valley into the Deep South vicinity, morning convection may
be more limited compared to further north, allowing for more
extensive destabilization ahead of the surging cold front. A
mixed-mode of supercells ahead of the cold front, and an organized
line of storms along the cold front will be possible across this
area.
As mesoscale details become better resolved in the coming days, the
severe area for Wednesday is likely to shift some. However, the
overall pattern suggests a broad area of severe thunderstorm
potential is probable on Wednesday.
...Day 5/Thu...
Some severe thunderstorm potential could persist into portions of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However, uncertainty is fairly high
given this potential will depend on evolution of convection on Day
4/Wed, which could be quite extensive and outpace the surface front
Wednesday night into early Day 5/Thu. As such, predictability is
low.
...Days 6-8/Fri-Sun...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the weekend as
broad upper troughing persists across the central/eastern U.S.
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