RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
to southern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Northern Indiana
Northern and Central Illinois
Southern Lower Michigan
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a couple intense
Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today
and tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes
vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for
multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very
large hail.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Gleason.. 03/10/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST/CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes
vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for
multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large
hail.
...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak surface low over eastern KS late this morning will translate
northeastward along a front towards northern IL through tonight.
Low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes, where surface
dewpoints of at least low to mid 60s will likely be present by this
evening. Large-scale ascent across this region will remain fairly
nebulous, as an upper trough ejects eastward over the northern
Plains. Still, a strengthening low-level jet across MO into IL/IN
from late afternoon into this evening should promote scattered
supercell development along/near the front in north-central IL.
Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates,
and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable
environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+
inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells.
Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase
around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level
jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to
quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense
low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the
front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense
tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%)
and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of
northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update.
Convection should eventually grow upscale along/near the front late
this evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday. But, the
threat for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds will likely continue
with eastward extent across the Midwest/OH Valley, as both
sufficient instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will be
present across the warm sector.
...Texas into Oklahoma...
A closed mid/upper-level low over northern Mexico will move eastward
across the Southwest and southern High Plains by this evening while
devolving into an open wave. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft and
pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will
encourage robust thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon
along the length of a surface dryline extending southward across
much of west TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will support updraft organization, with an attendant threat
for supercells initially. Very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter)
will be possible with this discrete activity, before a transition to
more linear structures occurs through the evening. An increase in
the severe/damaging wind threat will likely be realized as this mode
transition occurs across parts of central TX into southern OK. Some
threat for embedded tornadoes will also exist, especially into
central TX where greater low-level moisture and shear are forecast.
A separate area of severe potential may develop this
afternoon/evening across parts of central into northeast TX in the
low-level warm advection regime. While weakly forced, there is some
chance for at least isolated supercells to develop and pose a risk
for large hail and a few tornadoes. This scenario remains uncertain,
but 5% tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward to account
for this conditional potential.
...Oklahoma/Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley...
A dryline will be in place across western OK today, with a cold
front forecast to move slowly southward across KS and parts of MO
through tonight. While this area will largely remain between
stronger large-scale forcing to both the north and south, it appears
probable that additional thunderstorms will eventually develop this
evening/tonight along/south of the front. Tornadoes and large hail
appear possible with any sustained supercells, while damaging winds
should occur with line segments that can develop and spread eastward
through early Wednesday morning.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/10/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for
Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor
imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will
traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification
of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH
Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave
and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will
promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses
from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning.
A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture
return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A
trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push
east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and
northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe
thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front
through the day as it pushes east/southeast.
...Upper OH Valley...
A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may
emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning
into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good
agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the
lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this
strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of
higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western
Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle
low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of
regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order
of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including
supercells.
The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across
the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late
Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley,
though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and
intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help
maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust
severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to
modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of
daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture.
Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent
calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across
far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind
probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where
one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a
threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be
needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent
thermodynamic environment emerges.
...Lower MS Valley...
One or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region
Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is
anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the
southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a
re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly
flow through a deep layer will promote along-boundary storm motions
and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in
storm coverage is anticipated through the lower MS Valley as the
primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late
afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken
by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the
northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the
afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe
gusts and embedded circulations.
Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for discrete,
pre-line convection across eastern LA into southern and central MS
as heating and modest ascent erodes weak capping within the warm
sector. Kinematic profiles - characterized by 40 knots of effective
bulk shear and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH - will support supercells
capable of all hazards, though coverage and longevity of supercells
remains uncertain given disparity between 12z CAM solutions and
modest signals in calibrated guidance.
..Moore.. 03/10/2026
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