RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.
...Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated
the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a
strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies. Large-scale
height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will
result in marginal instability over TX and the development of
scattered thunderstorms later today.
Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX
this morning. Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX
through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and
central TX this evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited
moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and
limit updraft strength/severe potential. Nevertheless, the
strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.
Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.
..Leitman.. 11/28/2025
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