RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.
Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.
Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.
...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.
...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet
strengthens.
...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
possible.
On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
the region.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.
The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.
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