RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight.
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper
trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja
California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably
lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak
thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south
Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.
..Smith/Lyons.. 03/29/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.
...20z...
No changes were made to the prior outlook, see the previous
discussion.
..Lyons.. 03/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight.
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper
trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja
California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably
lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak
thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south
Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-amplitude but intense shortwave trough will move across the
northern Rockies during the day Monday, and will move into the
northern Plains through 12Z Tuesday, with height falls arriving late
into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern plains
during they day, and will move into IA/southwest WI area by Tuesday
morning. East of the low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across WI and Lower MI, with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints to the
south. Meanwhile, a cold front will move to a southeast MN to
western KS line by 12Z Tuesday.
Though capping will inhibit development at least through 00Z,
increasing theta-e advection along with the 40-50 kt 850 mb jet will
lead to lift along/north of the stationary front, with isolated hail
possible as far north as northern WI/Lower MI. Other isolated
development may occur south of this boundary, depending on the
degree of elevated CIN, from IA into IL. Hail would be the most
likely threat.
Late in the period and into Tuesday morning, lift will be strongest
near the surface low, and scattered storms producing both hail and
locally damaging gusts will be possible given the dry sub-cloud
layer and steep lapse rates aloft.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the early evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains across
the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 50+ kt 500 mb winds extending
as far south as IL/IN/OH. At the surface, low pressure will move
across WI and Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward from northern IN/IL into OK by 00Z. This front is
forecast to proceed across NY and into PA overnight, trailing into
the OH Valley at that time.
A broad fetch of moisture with 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints is
likely across the region ahead of the cold front, resulting in
MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. This will exist beneath moderately strong
westerly winds aloft, aiding forward storm motion and shear. Storms
forming along the front late in the afternoon and into the evening
will be the primary focus for severe potential, though a daytime
risk is also possible if early storms remain strong across WI.
...From WI/IL into western NY/PA...
Some uncertainty exist regarding storm evolution on Tuesday.
Regardless, strong winds aloft along with areas of destabilization
should support corridors of damaging wind potential, along with
sporadic large hail.
On Tuesday morning, ongoing storms are expected over parts of WI,
perhaps along or north of the east-west stationary front. This
activity may be severe with damaging gusts or hail, and could
persist into Lower MI. The amount of early storms may play a role in
which areas experience a severe risk later in the day due to
potential stabilizing outflows.
As the warm sector destabilizes further during the afternoon, storms
are likely along the cold front, and perhaps near any leftover
outflows from early day storms. Deep-layer mean wind speeds near 50
kt will support fast-moving storm complexes capable of damaging
winds. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor hail production as well,
although most of the shear will be in the lower 3 km. That said,
mesoscale factors such as destabilization near any boundaries may
conditionally support a tornado risk for rightward-propagating
cells.
...Southern KS into western OK...
Strong heating will occur over the southern Plans, near and south of
the cold front moving into northern OK. Forecast soundings indicate
inhibition but lift along the front may yield a few cells capable of
hail from the eastern TX Panhandle into perhaps far southern KS.
This severe threat will likely be localized due to slow storm
motions and modest shear.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
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