RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous storms with isolated severe potential are
likely over parts of southern and eastern Texas and western
Louisiana Saturday.
...Southern/eastern TX to western LA...
The upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will continue eastward
Saturday, overspreading East TX and LA before reaching the lower MS
Valley by early Sunday. Embedded within the broader trough, a
shortwave feature will move out of northern Mexico and across the
northwest Gulf coast with an accompanying basal speed max. A weak
surface low over OK will drag a cold front eastward over central TX
while strong ascent from the upper trough and cold front will
overspread a plume of rich low-level moisture but modest lapse rates
from the Gulf Coast to OK.
Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected early
Saturday as one or more convective complexes from the previous day
will likely be ongoing over eastern TX/OK. Significant uncertainty
remains with respect to diurnal destabilization and the resulting
severe threat across northeast TX, southern OK and northwestern LA.
Continued southeasterly low-level flow and the arrival of stronger
forcing from the approaching trough suggests multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely through Saturday evening. Relatively
stronger heating on the southwestern flank of this activity over
southern and coastal TX could allow for more robust surface-based
buoyancy to develop by early afternoon. With sufficient veering for
organized storms amid the strong low-level warm advection regime, at
least an isolated severe risk is likely.
The primary uncertainty this outlook cycle is the potential for a
messy convective mode and sagging outflow to limit the surface-based
warm sector over southeast TX. Relatively strong low and mid-level
shear ahead of the upper trough could support supercells or bowing
clusters with damaging gust and tornado potential. Will introduce 5%
severe probabilities for now given the uncertainty from antecedent
convection. However, enlarging low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
m2/s2) and the potential for stronger destabilization may
necessitate higher outlook probabilities in subsequent updates.
..Lyons.. 10/23/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper trough over East TX is forecast to weaken as it moves over
the lower MS Valley late this weekend and into early next week.This
system will merge with several weaker perturbations over the eastern
US as a second trough and strong zonal jet are forecast to move out
of the Rockies and into the Plains. Mid-level ridging is expected to
develop across the Great Lakes and Southwest early next week. This
will likely result in blocked and split mid-level flow before deeper
troughing consolidates over the eastern half of the CONUS. As the
western ridging builds, flow aloft will trend more northwesterly,
suppressing overall amplification of the Plains trough.
Isolated severe potential remains possible D4/Sunday and D5/Monday
over parts of the southern Plains and the ArkLaMiss where remnant
moisture should intersect with enhanced flow aloft. However, poor
lapse rates and several rounds of proceeding storms lends low
confidence to specific hazards or spatial coverage.
Through the remainder of next week, broad eastern US troughing will
persist with strong northwesterly flow aloft over the western and
central US. A strong cold front will develop and sweep eastward
midweek, with surface high pressure developing in its wake. This
will likely keep substantial moisture return and resulting buoyancy
subdued for the foreseeable future.
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