RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central
Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.
...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally
consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.
..Smith/Leitman.. 11/07/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
persist across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS for much of the
period. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from
the North Carolina coast to northeast Texas.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Weak to moderate instability will develop south of a stalled frontal
zone across the Southeast on Saturday. Mostly neutral mid-level
height tendencies and weak convergence along the front will likely
limit overall storm coverage. In addition, relatively warm
temperatures around 700mb will limit updraft strength in an
otherwise favorable deep-layer shear environment. The stronger
upper-level forcing does not appear to arrive until after 06Z, at
which time instability will also remain limited. Therefore, a few
stronger storms capable of small hail are possible, but the overall
severe weather threat appears limited during the Day 2 period.
..Bentley.. 11/07/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday midday into
early evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from north
Florida to far southeast Virginia.
...Synopsis...
A very strong, amplifying mid-level trough will become a closed low
across the western Great Lakes with a strong mid-level jet extending
from the Plains to the Gulf Coast and into the Northeast. A surface
low will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front
will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and eventually
into the western Atlantic.
...Southeast into the Eastern Carolinas and far southeast
Virginia...
Weak to potentially moderate instability will develop from north
Florida to southeast Virginia in advance of an eastward-moving cold
front. Storms are expected along and ahead of this front as it moves
east. Moderately steep lapse rates and steep low-level lapse rates
may support damaging wind gusts during the afternoon/evening.
Greater instability across southeast Georgia and eastern South
Carolina may support a more concentrated zone of stronger storms. In
addition, moderate shear will support the potential for a few
supercells. While a Slight Risk may be needed across this area,
storm intensity (due to only modest instability) uncertainties
preclude an upgrade at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/07/2025
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