RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. See
the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 11/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.
Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Saturday
evening/night, across parts of the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will encompass the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS on Saturday morning. A cold front will stall across the Deep
South and become a stationary front during the day. A
positively-tilted mid-level trough and associated jet streak will
move quickly through the Plains and to the Lower Mississippi Valley
by Saturday night.
...Deep South...
Some convection may be ongoing along the stalled frontal zone at the
beginning of the period. Warm mid-level temperatures should limit
the overall intensity of these storms, but long-straight hodographs
may support some organization and an isolated threat for large
hail/damaging wind gusts. The lack of strong convergence along the
front, and mostly neutral height tendencies aloft should keep
convective coverage limited during the day Saturday. However, by
Saturday night, as the mid-level trough digs into the southern
Plains, and a deepening cyclone develops in the Lower Ohio Valley,
forcing along the cold front should support increased thunderstorm
activity. The timing of this threat (likely after 00Z) is not
favorable for widespread severe storms. However, the increasing
forcing amid moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing
shear may support some large hail/damaging wind gusts.
Additional storms may develop Saturday evening/night across Georgia
and South Carolina as a low-level jet strengthens east of the
Appalachians. This will result in isentropic ascent within a region
of weak to moderate instability and moderate deep-layer shear. A few
elevated thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail will be the
primary threat Saturday evening/overnight.
..Bentley.. 11/06/2025
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