733
FXUS63 KIND 020704
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temps to continue through the weekend with frost
  likely this morning and possible Sunday morning

- Milder but still largely below normal next week, with multiple
  chances for rain; heavy rain possible at times

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

The general synoptic pattern will be rather stagnant over the next 7
to 10 days as a broad trough remains over Eastern Canada. The impact
to central Indiana will be a cooler than normal pattern with
temperatures peaks near seasonal and temperature valleys 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

For today, a significant dip in the aforementioned trough will keep
the much below normal temperatures across the region, signified by
850mb temperatures between -2 and -4C. Ahead of this dip will be
weak ascent, leading to broken cloud cover and very light rain
showers, mostly over SW portions of the region this morning.
Building pressure behind the trough axis late today and tonight
should aid in skies clearing leading to another night with frost
potential. Current expectation is for a bulk of the frost risk to be
over eastern portions of the state (closer to the trough axis and
cooler 850mb temps), but there is some uncertainty on how wide
spread this frost will be, mostly due to a consistent, but weak
surface wind. The daytime on Sunday will likely be partly to mostly
cloudy as a weak vort max pivots around the larger Canadian trough.
Some guidance is showing enough lift through a saturated 850-700mb
layer for light showers, and so PoPs have been increased across
northern central Indiana for Sunday afternoon and evening.
Regardless of this, any rain will be weak with QPF values less than
0.1".

The previously discussed temperature peaks will mostly reside ahead
of positively tilted shortwaves as ridging attempt to push in from
the west, the first of which will be Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will likely reach above seasonal for a brief period on
Monday as a narrow corridor of strong WAA ahead of the wave
coincides with peak diurnal warming; current expectation is for
Monday`s highs to be in the mid 70s. Confidence is high that there
will be precipitation over the Ohio Valley Late Monday through
Tuesday as the wave passes through, but there is still ensemble
spread on the precipitation axis, and therefor confidence in
location specific QPF is relatively lower. Initially, rain will
likely be associated with frontogenetical banding on Monday night,
but should transition to surface based convective processes
throughout Tuesday. There is some risk of hail on Monday night
within frontal convection due to modest lapse rates above the PBL,
but the severe risk looks low on Tuesday with lapse rates nearing
moist adiabatic and the upper level support not properly phased to
optimize shear.

As the upper level support arrives late Tuesday through Wednesday,
surface pressure falls across the southern Ohio Valley will likely
reinforce lift across central Indiana leading to additional rain
chances. Given the greater mid level lapse rates and mid-level shear
on Wednesday, stronger thunderstorms within elevated convection will
be possible despite greater near surface stability.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers possible at KHUF and KBMG

Discussion:

Isolated showers will continue to pass through overnight mainly SW
of all sites, but there is some potential at KHUF and KBMG. Any
shower can briefly reduce vis and cigs below VFR levels.

For the rest of the period, high pressure slides southeast through
the area over the next 24-36 hours, keeping VFR conditions and
fairly light winds at all sites. NNW winds at or below 10 kts this
evening become light and variable overnight, but remaining out of
the N or NE. Winds increase again during the afternoon hours
tomorrow to 8-12 kts due to daytime heating and mixing; however any
gusts should be fairly sporadic and under 15 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-054>057-065.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Updike