043
FXUS63 KIND 071828
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
228 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and Warmer on Tuesday.

- Brief return of heat midweek with a chance of storms Late
Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over Lake Huron, providing easterly surface flow to Central Indiana.
Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the upper midwest, resulting
in NW flow across Indiana. Water Vapor imagery shows subsidence in
place across Indiana and OH. Dew points were in the 50s as mixing
has produced lower values. GOES19 shows mostly sunny skies
across the area.

Tonight and Tuesday...

The upper ridging over the northern plains states will push east to
the eastern Great Lakes tonight and Tuesday, keeping any forcing
dynamics well north of Central Indiana. The strong surface high
pressure will drift SE to the middle Atlantic states by Tuesday, but
continue to maintain control of our weather. Forecast soundings and
time heights show a dry column with subsidence in place through
Tuesday. Dew point depressions tonight may be small, resulting in
patchy fog, especially in rural areas.

On Tuesday a mid level inversion appears to remain in place, and
this should again prevent much in the way of CU development,
resulting in another mostly sunny day. Temperatures will be warmer,
as southerly flow will develop allowing warm air advection. Look for
Highs to reach the middle and upper 80s

Wednesday...

The upper ridging across the area will have broken down to a
progressive, nearly zonal, flow across the northern CONUS by
Wednesday. A short wave within this flow will be pushing across
southern Canada through the day, keeping the best forcing dynamics
there. Within the lower levels the tail of an associated cold front
will be pushing across the Upper midwest and central Plains. Upper
forcing along the tail of the front is limited. However, southerly
flow ahead of the front streaming into Indiana will allow for an
even warmer and more humid air mass to arrive. Dew points will surge
into the 60s. Forecast soundings by late afternoon show diurnal
convection possible with marginal CAPE available. Thus will keep
things dry through 18Z, but afterward due to diurnal heating and
instability, chance pops for showers and storms will be included,
into the evening hours. Look for highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday...

With upper flow nearly parallel to a surface front early on
Thursday, chances for rain will continue, especially south. An upper
impulse should finally push the front south by early Thursday night.

Locally heavy rain will be a threat with precipitable water values
over 2 inches and the potential for training storms (with the slow
movement of the front).

Clouds/rain will keep temperatures cooler with highs around 80 for
most areas.

Friday and beyond...

Uncertainty rises in this period. The upper ridge to the southwest
will try and increase its influence over central Indiana. Meanwhile,
upper waves moving through the flow to the northeast of the ridge
will try to keep the ridge away and bring rain chances to the area.

For now, believe the best chances for rain will be on Saturday, but
that may change. Temperatures will begin to increase again as the
ridge attempts to build northeast, but readings should remain below
90 for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

High pressure northeast of Indiana will drift Se through the TAF
period. This will allow the easterly flow across the TAF sites to
become southerly on Tuesday. Forecast soundings through the period
continue to suggest a dry column with subsidence aloft.

The subsidence is due to the NW flow aloft on the lee side of
ridging over the northern plains. Dew point depressions are
suggested to become quite small tonight and winds will be light. Fog
may be possible at the outlying TAF spots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma/50