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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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600 FXUS63 KIND 181808 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and very warm conditions will persist for the rest of the work week - Heat and low RH values each afternoon through Friday may lead to a marginally elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit overall concerns - Slightly cooler and more unsettled pattern developing by early next week with the potential for much needed rainfall && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Central Indiana remain is a dry and unseasonably warm/hot pattern today, and should generally stay this way into the weekend. The synoptic pattern currently showcases amplified troughing and ridging, but with an organized deep low to the west, the overall pattern will remain rather stagnant for the next few days. This allows for strong subsidence over the region and building low level high pressure. The result is continued upper 80s to low 90s across central Indiana with very light winds and deep PBLs. These conditions also support elevated ozone levels and thus an Air Quality Alert remains in affect through midnight tonight along with additional air quality issues tomorrow across SE Indiana. These dry conditions along with very dry fuel moisture will also lead to elevated wildfire concerns. Light winds and clear skies once again tonight should lead to idealized diurnal curves with temperatures dropping to near 60F overnight. Maximum relative humidity values generally below 90 percent should mitigate organized fog, yet patchy pre-dawn visibility reductions are again possible. && .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Despite the disorganization of the upper low, intermittent CVA alignment will still slowly push the broad area of lower pressure eastward, of which should reach the Ohio Valley late Saturday into Sunday. Prior to its arrival, there will be some moderate moisture advection, but low level high pressure along with antecedent very dry conditions should hold off any precipitation until Sunday. SW flow should keep temperatures above normal this weekend, although more moderated due to less low level mixing. Moisture advection increases noticeably within the boundary layer by late Sunday and Monday as southerly flow develops ahead of the approaching upper level wave and the surface ridge moves further away to the east. Precip water values rise to around 1.5 inches for the first half of next week and with modest forcing aloft now present as first the upper trough then the cutoff low impact the region. There is likely to be a non-uniform response to rainfall totals due to the scattered nature of the convection through much of the period but any rainfall would be welcomed at this point with how dry it has been of late. Have nudged temperatures down for Monday through Wednesday in anticipation of more cloud coverage and convection over the Ohio Valley as highs should be held down in to the upper 70s and lower 80s. High uncertainty remains for late next week into next weekend largely due to the length of time the cutoff low lingers over the Ohio Valley. That being said, broad upper level ridging is likely to return to the region for the last few days of the month into early October with a resumption of warm and dry conditions. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1247 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Impacts: - MVFR/Brief IFR visibility possible in fog at KBMG tomorrow morning Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions will continue into Friday morning over central Indiana terminals. Brief pre-dawn MVFR/IFR is possible again at KBMG tomorrow morning. Afternoon mixing within a strong area of high pressure will allow for light winds at most TAF sites. These should predominately be out of the SW, but they will likely be somewhat variable. A few diurnal cu may pop up at KHUF/KIND/KBMG Winds should become calm again overnight with mostly to all clear skies. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...Ryan/Updike AVIATION...Updike |
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