273
FXUS63 KIND 071954
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures over the next few days, especially
  Thursday and Friday

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Saturday, with areas of
  overall moderate rainfall possible

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph expected Thursday afternoon into
  Thursday night, higher gusts possible in convection overnight

- Near or slightly below normal temperatures expected Saturday
  night through early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Current surface analysis and observations depict surface high
pressure centered near the region with mostly clear skies. The high
is providing quiet weather conditions and helped quickly mix out the
stratus deck over the area earlier today. Plentiful sunshine since
then has warmed temperatures into the mid 40s over far NE counties
to the mid 50s across the SW.

Slight additional warming is possible before temperatures begin to
cool this evening. Diurnal cooling may be slightly limited by
southerly flow overnight despite mostly clear skies. Temperatures
are expected to range from the mid 30s to near 40F. Look for quiet
weather to continue for much of the period as subsidence induced dry
air remains in place.

Surface high pressure slides eastward tonight into Thursday allowing
winds to become more southerly. A strengthening MSLP gradient
between the departing surface high and a developing low pressure
system will lead to increasing winds. Sustained winds between 10-20
mph are expected with gusts around 25-35 mph possible.

An associated warm front will lift north Thursday afternoon which
may support isolated or scattered very light showers. Forecast
soundings depict a pocket of mid-level dry air limiting confidence
in measurable precipitation. If any precipitation occurs, amounts
would likely be around a trace to a few hundredths at most.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Thursday night through Saturday...

An unsettled pattern is expected early in the extended with multiple
low pressure systems likely moving through the region. Model
guidance depicts a shortwave embedded within broad upper level
troughing pushing across the region late Thursday into early Friday.
Diffluence aloft will aid in surface cyclogenesis across the plains
before the deepening low then lifts northeastward towards the Great
Lakes Region.

Increasing dynamics combined with a strong LLJ advecting anomalous
gulf moisture northward supports widespread precipitation, mainly
Thursday night into Friday morning. QPF amounts around 0.25 to 0.75
inches are expected. Locally higher amounts are possible given
latest guidance shows there may be some convective elements due to
weak instability. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Windy
conditions are expected due to a strong MSLP gradient and LLJ
overhead. Generally gusts around 25-35 mph are expected with the
potential for higher gusts within any convection overnight.

The strongest forcing for ascent will shift out of the area Friday
leading to more isolated convective coverage by the afternoon.
However, another low pressure system should develop and push towards
the region Friday night into Saturday. Increasing dynamics combined
with gulf moisture returning northward supports widespread
precipitation once again. A weakening pressure gradient should allow
for winds to begin diminishing Friday. Warm air advection ahead of
each system will help keep temperatures well above normal.

Saturday night through Wednesday...

Look for colder air to filter into the region over the second half
of the weekend behind a departing low pressure system. The parent
trough remaining overhead along with low-level cyclonic flow and
moisture may promote isolated light snow showers or flurries
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Little to no accumulation is
expected, but will continue to monitor trends as regional and global
models can struggle in these marginal setups. Expect breezy
conditions due to a tight pressure gradient across central Indiana.

Model guidance depicts surface high pressure building in late Sunday
into early next week providing quiet weather conditions. Aloft, a
few short waves are expected to pass through early next week though
limited moisture should inhibit precipitation. Rain chances return
toward the middle of next week ahead of an approaching deeper
trough. Exact details remain uncertain due to diverging model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings near LAF returning to VFR early this afternoon

Discussion:

Low level clouds are still lingering near LAF, but the clearing line
is quickly approaching with VFR conditions expected in the next
hour. VFR conditions will then persist at all sites through much of
the period. MVFR ceilings are likely to return late Thursday with an
approaching low pressure system.

Look for winds to remain under 10 kts through tonight while backing
to a more southerly direction. Winds then pick up during the day
Thursday with sustained winds around 10-15 kts for most sites and
gusts between 20-26 kts in the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Melo