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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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100 FXUS63 KIND 031122 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 622 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor snow accumulations from a trace to less than half an inch possible today across much of central IN with the potential for 1- 2 inches across far SE counties. - Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7AM to 7PM today across far SE counties, greatest chance for impacts during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Temperatures have remained steady overnight underneath a low stratus deck. Current temperatures are in the 20s across central Indiana. Latest KIND radar imagery and surface observations depict a narrow band of snow over northern IL moving southeastward towards the area. This band of snow is associated with a mid-upper level wave quickly approaching. Guidance has been struggling with some high resolution models not even depicting precipitation where visibilities are around 2 miles or lower in the narrow band of snow. Given recent trends and high-res models overdoing the low-mid level dry air across northern IL, POPs were increased slightly over northern central IN later this morning. Drier air ahead of the incoming narrow axis of snow should still result in gradual weakening or dissipation, but it appears some light snow could work its way into northern counties. Minor accumulations from a trace to a few tenths of an inch are possible. Will continue monitoring near term trends to see if the dry air can manage to win out like some guidance suggest. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected near the Ozarks this morning ahead of the aforementioned wave aloft. Current surface analysis already shows the developing surface low over SW Missouri slowly moving eastward. Modest moisture advection and forcing ahead of the system is expected to result in increasing coverage of flurries or light snow later this morning. Low-mid level frontogenetical forcing shifting into the area towards the late morning or early afternoon hours will then likely lead to a developing narrow band of heavier snow. Uncertainty remains on the evolution or exact location of this band, but guidance continues to favor far southeastern counties and locations eastward for the greatest snow chances. Where exactly the band develops and how long it takes to organize will determine exact snowfall amounts. At this time, guidance suggest the potential for around 1 to possibly 2 inches of snow over far southeast central IN. If the heavier band takes too long to develop though these amounts could end up lower as forcing shifts eastward. The rest of the forecast area should see minor accumulations between a trace and half an inch. Mesoscale trends are going to be key today given the uncertainties so continue to monitor the forecast for updates. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far southeast portions of central Indiana from 7AM to 7pm today with no changes made at this time. The greatest chance for impacts would likely be during the afternoon. Expect quiet weather conditions tonight as surface high pressure builds in behind the departing system. Look for cold air advection to drop temperatures into the single digits to teens. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 An amplified upper level trough will remain the prominent feature across much of the eastern part of the country through the end of the week with another strong upper low diving southeast from James Bay on Friday and deepening the trough along the East Coast for the weekend. With the Ohio Valley on the back side of the trough in a northwest flow regime...moisture return will remain limited with only a limited opportunity for light snow late week as low pressure passes to the northeast of the region. The eastward expansion of ridging aloft by early next week will initiate the onset of milder air into the region and most likely the warmest temperatures in a few weeks. Dry weather is expected for most of the second half of the week with the exception of the aforementioned low pressure passing through the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. This could provide a glancing blow of snow showers to the northeast part of the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday morning with the potential for a few flurries to follow during the day Friday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Dry conditions then return for the weekend into early next week as high pressure passes through the Ohio Valley. Highs will remain colder than normal through much of the extended but a more pronounced warming trend will commence near the end of the forecast period early next week. Highs will hold in the 20s Wednesday and Thursday followed by a brief bump up in temperatures Friday before resuming daytime highs in the 20s and lower 30s for the weekend. There remain signals for a more active weather pattern developing next week as the ridge expands east with high uncertainty in precipitation type as temperatures reside near or above the freezing mark with increasing frequency. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 621 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings possible at times today and again this evening into tonight - Confidence in snow decreasing, but brief period of snow still possible later this morning into the early afternoon Discussion: Ceilings have improved to VFR across central Indiana. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out today though along with additional MVFR ceilings possible this evening into tonight. A weak storm system moving in today brings the chance for light snow. Dry air has limited snow chances thus far, but a brief period of light snow still appears possible later this morning into the early afternoon, predominately near BMG. Brief MVFR visibilities are possible if snow develops, especially near BMG. All TEMPO groups were changed to PROB30 groups due to lower confidence in snow potential. Snow was completely removed from LAF. Winds will be light and variable until the passage of a secondary cold front late morning with winds picking up out of the north-northeast from 5-10 kts. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ064- 065-071-072. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Melo |
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