866
FXUS63 KIND 180753
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries or snow showers late this afternoon and
tonight.

- Cold today and tonight. Wind Chill values around 0F today and -5
to -15 tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over Quebec
along with a trough axis that extended across Ontario. High pressure
was found over Texas, thus Indiana was caught between these two
systems. Lower level flow this morning remained mainly cyclonic due
to the influence of the low to the northeast. Ridging from the high
was found across the plains. Aloft, a highly amplified pattern was in
place, with strong ridging in place over the western CONUS and a
largely cyclonic flow in place east of the Rockies due to a large
trough stretching from the Great Lakes to eastern TX. The air mass
over Central Indiana was an arctic one, with temperatures mainly in
the teens and single digit dew points. GOES19 shows an area of
clouds over IL and western Indiana advancing eastward across the
state within the cyclonic flow. The clouds were producing only
flurries or very light snow showers.

Today...

The surface and upper trough are expected to push across Central
Indiana today. This will lead to morning cloudiness and as this wave
passes. However, in the wake of the wave, weak ridging arrives for
the late morning and early afternoon amid subsidence aloft. Forecast
soundings at that time show a dry column with descending cold air
through the afternoon. Things will change quickly late this
afternoon as another quick moving upper trough within the cyclonic
flow aloft passes across Central Indiana. Forecast soundings here
indicates a top down saturation occurring through the mid to late
afternoon hours. Within the lower levels dry air remains in place
with very low dew points. Thus clouds are expected to return, and
perhaps a flurry or snowflake will be seen, but it will not be very
impactful.

What will be impactful today will be the temperatures and the
associated winds. A very cold air mass will be in place across
Central Indiana as 850mb temps will remain near -12C to -14C. This
with translate to steady temperatures in the teens along with winds
around 10-15 mph. These two elements will lead to wind chill values
in the around zero. Although this will be well above advisory
criteria, it will still feel like a very cold day.

Tonight...

The afternoon trough axis will be pushing across Central Indiana
during the evening hours and exiting overnight. Cyclonic flow
remains in place within the lower levels as another area of low
pressure lingers in the Great Lakes providing a cold NW flow of air
to central Indiana. More cold air advection will be expected
tonight, as 850mb temps once again fall to near -18C, leading to
another cold night with single digit lows. Digressing back to the
passing trough,  Forecast soundings again shows saturated mid and
upper levels as this feature passes late this evening and early
overnight. Lower levels remain quite dry, indicative of the very dry
air in place at the surface. Thus as this wave passes, more very
light snow showers or flurries will be expected, with minimal to no
accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Monday Through Wednesday.

Much of the early portions of the long term period will be dominated
by persistent cyclonic flow aloft and much below normal
temperatures. There may be a few lingering flurries across north
central Indiana Monday morning, but expect this to be brief with the
better forcing closer to the Great Lakes. It will remain breezy
through the day with strong pressure gradients with gusts to around
25-30 mph likely at times during the day. This will keep wind chills
sub-zero through the day for areas along and north of I-70.

Surface flow will gradually become more southwesterly and weaker
Monday night into Tuesday as the upper level system exits to the
northeast. This will help to bring somewhat warmer temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday, but overall only expect a 6-8 hour window
Wednesday afternoon where temperatures will climb above freezing. A
clipper system will interact with the strengthening southerly flow
during the daytime hours on Wednesday which could bring
precipitation to portions of central Indiana but there remains quite
a bit of model spread on the timing of the clipper and how much
moisture is available across central Indiana by the time the better
forcing arrives. With temperatures near freezing, precipitation type
also remains uncertain with the potential for both rain and snow.

Thursday Through Saturday.

Another blast of colder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
in the aftermath of the system but the magnitude of the colder air
doesn`t look quite as robust as what is expected for the early
portions of the week. Surface flow will quickly then return to a
more southerly direction Thursday night into Friday with another day
where temperatures briefly climb back above freezing before the next
system moves in to start the weekend.

The Saturday system has seen quite a bit of attention over the last
week with some model runs showing extreme amounts of either freezing
rain or snow. These more extreme runs have been the outliers with
both the ensembles and latest deterministic runs showing the
potential for accumulating snow across central Indiana, but nothing
significant at this time. There remains quite a bit of spread in the
strength of the system and with precipitation type so will continue
to monitor forecast trends in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Impacts:

- Some VFR early overnight before coming MVFR late overnight and on
Sunday.

Discussion:

Cyclonic flow remains across central Indiana due to low
pressure found well to the northeast. GOES16 shows some breaks in
the cloud across the TAF sites, however an area MVFR cigs were found
over IL, poised to push across Central Indiana. This will allow our
current VFR cigs to become MVFR overnight.

The cyclonic flow will lessen after 12Z as the low to the northeast
pulls away and ridging associated with high pressure over the
southern plains builds across Indiana. Time heights continue to
suggest lower level moisture present, thus will continue with some
MVFR conditions through the morning, before heating allows the
possibility of brief VFR Cigs in the afternoon.

Another low and associated cold front will push quickly toward
Central Indiana by late Sunday. This will usher a return of lower
level moisture and expected MVFR cigs as this trough passes on
Sunday night. Moisture remains limited with this feature but a few
light snowflakes or snow showers cannot be ruled out.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Monday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>055-060-061-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma