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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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503 FXUS63 KIND 122242 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 642 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures continuing - Rain and storms possible next weekend with gusty winds and cooler temperatures && .SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday)... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Beautiful afternoon as skies were sunny with light easterly winds. 18Z temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Ridging aloft and at the surface remain the dominant features across the region...largely remaining in place as a strong low pressure system becomes nearly stationary off the North Carolina/Virginia coast. Few cu trying to form over far eastern portions of the forecast area but the broad subsidence over the Ohio Valley was largely limiting development. Any cu will dissipate prior to sunset and set the stage for clear skies for most of the night before slightly deeper moisture aloft advects into the region with scattered mid and high clouds predawn into Monday. Patchy shallow ground fog will again be a possibility late tonight and Monday morning focused mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. The advection of subtly higher dewpoints from the northeast overnight may aid in more favorable conditions for fog development. Again though...coverage will remain patchy and largely confined to the river valleys and low lying areas at best due to the presence of the subsidence and dry air across the region. Temps...another cool night with ideal radiational cooling. Expect lows predominantly in the mid and upper 40s. Upper level heights will increase with the ridge expansion Monday supporting highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Dry and quiet weather will continue through late week with broad ridging aloft and at the surface. Skies will be mostly clear through much of the period with the bulk of any increased cloud cover largely confined to midweek as a weakening frontal boundary drifts into the lower Great Lakes. It is not entirely out of the question that the boundary will get close enough to generate a few light showers over northern portions of the forecast area but the lack of significant moisture pooling ahead of the front will likely mitigate any rainfall. Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout the extended. Have continued recent trends of nudging highs and lows to the farther ends of the guidance envelope through Tuesday considering the ongoing drought and dry ground conditions with highs in the mid and upper 70s...possibly even rising into the lower 80s across the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will generally remain in the low to mid 50s through midweek. Heights aloft will buckle slightly for the second half of the week in response to a stronger upper low diving into New England. This will bring a brief cooldown with easterly flow while forcing a retrograde to the ridge back into the Mississippi Valley. Highs will slip back into a range from the mid 60s to lower 70s east to west Wednesday and Thursday but the cooldown will be especially noticed at night with the potential for some localized frost across eastern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night as temps fall into the upper 30s. The ridge will shift back east by Friday and Saturday with a noted increase in southerly flow and warmer temperatures in response to a developing surface wave over the Plains that will intensify as it lifts northeast into the Great Lakes through the weekend. This system is likely to bring the best chance for widespread rain and storms over the next 7 to 10 days while also bring gusty gradient winds and a more substantial but brief cooldown by the early part of the week of October 20. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 642 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Impacts: - Chance for some MVFR fog at KBMG Discussion: Some moisture will try and work west into the area overnight and could allow some MVFR fog to form at KBMG. Confidence is low, so only included 6SM for now. Cannot completely rule out brief fog at KLAF/KHUF, but odds are too low to mention. Otherwise, some passing high and perhaps mid clouds will move through at times. A few pop up cumulus may develop on Monday as well. Winds will be light and vary some, but they will generally have an easterly component. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...50 |
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