807
FXUS63 KIND 042348
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy light rain ending late this afternoon

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  this week through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 147 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Tonight...

Widespread rain has exited the area to the east of central Indiana
early this afternoon. Radar showed additional patchy light rain
across portions of the forecast area as well as east central
Illinois. Extensive cloud cover extended west beyond the Mississippi
River, with a few breaks.

Will keep some low PoPs around most areas through this afternoon
based on trends on radar. Temperatures will begin to fall across the
area from west to east, with readings already falling across eastern
Illinois as of 18Z.

Expect the cloud cover to remain across the area tonight. Cannot
rule out some patchy drizzle if enough forcing in the cloud layer
remains, but for now am not confident enough of this happening to
include in the forecast.

Cold advection will bring in cooler air, but cloud cover will help
keep readings from bottoming out. Will go a little above guidance
for lows given the cloud cover.

Thursday...

Some warm advection and mixing will likely clear some of the clouds
out of the forecast area for a while on Thursday, especially south.
Clouds will be on the increase though from the northwest during the
afternoon ahead of the next system. If enough sunshine breaks out,
highs in the south will be in the lower and middle 60s. Elsewhere,
highs will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

Thursday night and Friday...

An upper trough and surface cold front will move through Thursday
night into Friday. There won`t be much moisture to work with as the
Gulf will basically be cut off. Will go with some chance PoPs north
Thursday night closer to the better forcing and dry PoPs south.

On Friday, there may be some lake enhanced showers sneaking into the
northeast forecast area as colder air flows in, so will have some
slight chance to chance PoPs for this.

Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to middle 50s for most
areas with the cold advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday onward...

Central Indiana will generally remain in northwest flow aloft. This
will allow a couple of weak fronts to move through, but the Gulf
will but cut off keeping moisture out of the area. Will go with a
dry forecast.

The fronts will not have much cooler air with them as they move
through. This will allow temperatures to moderate from the lower and
middle 50s on Saturday to the lower and middle 60s for most areas
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 648 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR conditions possible through tonight.
- Wind gusts between 20-25kt on Thursday.

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions persist across central Indiana as of 00z.
Ceilings are not far off from MVFR, however, with readings between
3500-4500 ft agl reported at all terminals. Brief dips into MVFR
territory appear possible at any point tonight and into Thursday
morning.

Winds are diminishing now that the sun has set and the boundary
layer is stabilizing. Winds overnight should prevail between 5-10kt
out of the west-southwest, eventually becoming more southerly by
morning. Winds again become west-southwesterly Thursday as boundary
layer mixing resumes. Gusts to 25 knots are possible during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...50