630
FXUS63 KIND 220109
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
909 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend

- Daytime lows will be near normal with above normal highs through
  the period.

- Very small chances of rain next Tuesday, better chances late next
  week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Surface analysis late this evening shows strong high pressure
stretching from the eastern Great Lakes across Indiana and Illinois
to MO and Arkansas. GOES19 shows mostly clear skies across the state
and winds were light to calm with dew points mainly in the 40s.

Aloft, strong ridging was in place across the Plains, extending
north into Canada. This was providing NW flow aloft over Indiana and
water vapor shows subsidence across the region.

Overall, another quiet and cool night will be in store as good
radiational cooling conditions exist. Look for the clear skies to
continue as lows fall into the 40s. HRRR fails to suggest much in
the way of fog development. This still cannot be ruled out however
due to expected low dew point depressions and calm winds. Ongoing
forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Tonight through Sunday....

Mostly quiet weather will be the rule through the weekend as
sensible weather over central Indiana is dominated by surface high
pressure centered to the N through E, while upper level ridging
builds in from the Plains states. Low dewpoints and longer nights
will keep min temps near seasonal normals in the 40s. Clear skies
will support strong radiational cooling at night. Despite the
recent dry spell, this will lead to late night/early morning
patchy ground fog in favored low lying areas. Any fog will be
short lived as a quick rise of temperatures into upper 60s to mid
70s occurs for afternoon highs, some 5-10 degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday...

The remnant of the large upper level trough will move out of the
western states into the Plains and MS valley. As this system
progress eastward towards Indiana it will deamplify as it encounters
the upper ridge centered over the SE states. As this system
approaches, BL winds will become more southerly. However, a broad
and dominant area of surface high pressure centered over the SE will
severely limit any moisture return. As a result, recent model
consensus has backed off on precip chances with this system. The
next and much better chance for rain looks to be after the
forecast period late next week with the arrival of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 620 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions this period
- MVFR visibility in FG possible at KBMG Thursday morning

Discussion:

Strong high pressure was stretching from the eastern Great Lakes,
across Indiana to MO and Arkansas this evening. This high pressure
system will continue to dominate our weather tonight and again on
Thursday. Forecast soundings through Thursday show a dry column with
no CU formation. Thus clear skies with light winds will be expected.

There is a non-zero chance for MVFR fog at LAF, HUF and BMG toward
diurnal lows. This however seems too low confidence for a mention at
this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Crosbie