186
FXUS63 KIND 141745
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
145 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms return late Sunday, with severe weather
  possible Sunday night

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, wind chills near zero Tuesday
  morning

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

No significant changes needed to the forecast this morning. We have
been watching a band of warm advection-driven precipitation slowly
working its way eastward from Illinois. As of right now, a dry lower
atmosphere seems to be winning the battle and no precipitation has
reached the ground...yet. High-resolution guidance does indicate
that this will eventually reach the ground. Thermal profiles as
mentioned are dry, and wet bulb temperatures are below freezing. As
such, precip likely begins as a bit of snow before mixing with rain.
We have added the mention of flurries and sprinkles to the northern
half of our CWA for the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Mid and high clouds were moving across much of central Indiana in
northwest flow aloft early this morning. At the surface, high
pressure was building in and providing dry low levels.

A narrow band of stronger isentropic lift will move across portions
of the northern half of central Indiana this morning, mainly 12Z-
16Z. This lift may produce some light snow in the mid levels. This
snow will have to survive very dry low levels though to reach the
ground.

Will include a narrow area of slight chance PoPs in the
aforementioned time frame for portions of mainly the northern half
of the area, with low confidence. Even with temperatures above
freezing, wetbulb effects would keep the precipitation type as snow.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy today with mid and high
level moisture lingering across the area. Highs will be closer to
normal, with readings in the upper 40s north to middle 50s south.

Tonight, upper flow will become southwest ahead of the next system.
At the surface, a warm front will move north through the forecast
area. The front won`t have much forcing with it, so only expect some
clouds as it moves across. Winds will remain up as the pressure
gradient tightens. Lows will be in the 40s thanks to the warm front,
sky cover, and winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Sunday and Monday...

Guidance continues to agree that a deepening upper trough will
produce a potent low pressure system that will move into the lower
Great Lakes by Monday morning. 850mb winds in excess of 50kt will
pump warmth and moisture into the area Sunday. High temperatures
could reach around 70 degrees, with surface dewpoints in the 50s.

Guidance is speeding up the cold front, with the potential for it to
arrive in Indiana near 00-03Z Monday and moving out of the area by
06-09Z. The system will have some instability via strong advection
of warmth and moisture, but arriving earlier could add a bit more
instability.

With strong wind fields in place, it wouldn`t take much instability
to bring down damaging winds at any rate, so will continue to
mention the severe threat Sunday night. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat, but a few tornadoes may be possible along the line
storms given the shear.

The strong wind fields will lead to another breezy/windy period
Sunday into Sunday night, with gusts near 50mph possible outside of
any convection. For now believe winds will remain below High Wind
Warning criteria, so do not feel a watch is necessary at the moment.
A Wind Advisory will likely be needed though.

Wrap around precipitation on Monday will be snow as much colder air
moves into the area. Some light accumulation may occur. Temperatures
on Monday will only peak in the upper 20s to lower 30s most areas.

Tuesday...

Well below normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday with lows in
the teens Monday night and around 20 Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday
will only be around 30. Wind chills near zero are likely Tuesday
morning.

Wednesday and beyond...

A clipper system could bring some light snow to the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. An upper ridge will try and build east into
the area late week and may return temperatures to above normal, but
there looks to be another shot of cold air in the week 2 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Impacts:

- Non-convective LLWS tonight into Sunday morning.
- South winds with gusts between 40-45kt late Sunday morning into
  Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. SCT to BKN cloud
decks between 10k ft and 25k feet at times.

Strong surface low pressure will begin developing over the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening. Southerly flow increases
significantly tonight as a low-level jet develops in response to the
deepening low. A period of low-level shear is expected from 09z to
16z. After that, diurnal mixing will allow strong winds to begin
reaching the surface. Wind gusts at the surface likely range from 40
to 45 kt late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected just beyond the end of the
current TAF period, from 00z to 06z Monday. Some of these may be
strong to severe with hazardous flying conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Eckhoff