101
FXUS63 KIND 241342
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
942 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers today, along with scattered
  thunderstorms

- Daily chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the rest of
  the week with near to slightly above normal temperatures

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure in place over KS
and MO. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough over WI and
much of the Mississippi valley. A plume of moisture was streaming
north across Indiana ahead of the trough. Radar shows an area of
showers over southern Indiana, and KY, pushing northward. A second
line of showers were found over NE IL, pushing east toward Indiana.

A few more hours of dry weather is expected before the showers over
southern Indiana begin to arrive across Central Indiana. Given radar
trends, best areas for rain will be along and southeast of a
Anderson-Indianapoils-Bedford line. The showers to the northwest
should begin to push across the already mid afternoon, Impacting
Lafayette, Kokomo and Indianapolis in the later afternoon.  Overall
coverage may not be continuous, but rather hit and miss. The upper
trough axis should arrive across Indiana by mid to late afternoon,
allowing subsidence to arrive along with a west to east clearing of
the rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Early This Morning...

Patchy fog, which may be locally dense, will continue across
portions of the area. However, believe that the higher clouds will
help prevent any widespread dense fog. Stratus may still develop,
but higher clouds should help keep conditions mostly cloudy if not.

Today...

Unfortunately, uncertainty still remains on the timing of rain
across central Indiana today.

Forcing will come from an upper wave as well as a surface front.
Moisture is decent for the system to work with, so expect scattered
to numerous showers. Instability will be enough for some scattered
thunderstorms, but parameters don`t favor severe storms.

Forcing from the upper wave this morning will help remnants of
convection from south of the area to move into central Indiana and
linger into this afternoon. Questions remain on how far north this
gets and how much will coverage of the rain will remain. Will have a
brief period of likely PoPs southeast early this afternoon with
chance PoPs otherwise. (The Indy area should remain north of the
bulk of this area).

The biggest question is how fast will the line of convection
associated with a surface cold front move through from northwest to
southeast. Saturday`s forecast trended faster, and some models such
as the GFS still agree with this solution. However, CAMs are now
slower with the development and progression of the line of
convection.

The latest HRRR keeps the line northwest of Indy until late
afternoon, but the HRRR can be too slow. Even moving it`s solution
up a couple of hours is still slower than previously thought.

With not great confidence, have slowed down the timing of the line
from previous forecasts, but not as slow as the HRRR and some other
CAMs. This puts rain at Lafayette late morning/early afternoon, at
Indy roughly 3-5PM, and not exiting the southeast until closer to
7-8PM.

With expected cloud cover and rain chances, lowered guidance high
temperatures some and went mainly in the middle 70s.

Tonight and Memorial Day...

Kept some slight chance PoPs in the far east this evening for any
lingering convection. Otherwise tonight should be dry. High clouds
are expected to persist across the area, but if these are thin
enough wouldn`t rule out some patchy fog.

Surface high pressure will be the main influence across central
Indiana on Memorial Day, so went dry for most areas. The extreme
southern forecast area might see an isolated shower if the old front
doesn`t move far enough south.

Tuesday into next weekend...

The old front to the south of central Indiana will meander north and
south through the week with help from upper waves. At the moment, a
stronger upper wave will likely move the front back into the
southern portion of the area around Wednesday, which will bring the
highest PoPs of the period. However, the proximity of the front will
keep low PoPs most areas through the first half of next weekend.

Confidence in the details remains low with uncertainty remaining in
the timing and strength of the upper waves that will influence the
surface front.

Temperatures will remain above normal until late week/next weekend,
when readings will return to closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Impacts:

- Fog early, mainly at KBMG
- Patchy MVFR ceilings this morning
- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms mainly after 15Z
- Winds become northwest this afternoon

Discussion:

Stratus has failed to develop so far, so went more optimistic with
sky cover. Patchy MVFR ceilings will still be around this morning
though. Some fog is possible very early in the period, mainly at
KBMG.

A couple of areas of scattered to numerous showers will move in
today. Lighter rains will be possible this morning, then a line of
showers and some storms will move NW to SE this afternoon.
Confidence in timing and coverage of the line remains low to medium.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50