496
FXUS63 KIND 040519
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
119 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant early summer weather with warming trend into the weekend

- Next chance for widespread rain will be late Saturday into Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Beautiful weather continues this evening as the region resides
under high pressure. 01Z temperatures were in the 70s with light
winds.

The forecast is in excellent shape for the overnight as conditions
remain tranquil. Cirrus drifting across the area currently will
diminish over the next few hours leaving another night with clear
skies. Temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 50s by daybreak.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface high pressure over the Midwest is expected to persist
through Friday. As such, mainly clear and dry weather is expected to
round out the week. The surface high begins to slide eastward on
Thursday, however, allowing winds to become southwesterly. Wind
direction has been predominately out of the northeast over the
past few days. This change of wind direction will allow for a
warming trend with highs climbing into the mid 80s both Thursday
and Friday.

As the high reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast, troughing over the Great
Plains will edge eastward into the Midwest. A low passing to our
north will drag a cold front southward through Indiana on Saturday.
This front, combined with gradual moisture advection northward, will
set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday.

Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Overall, upper-level
flow looks to be weak and sufficient shear for storm-scale
organization is not likely to materialize. Isolated downbursts can
not be ruled out, however, as is usually the case with single-cell /
pulse convection. Flooding may be a possibility if the cold front
slows in its progression southward. Slow-moving storms and or
repeated storms over a few days may allow for this possibility.

Ensemble guidance hints at the cold front lifting back northward as
a warm front early next week. This may keep showers and storms in
the area Monday through Wednesday. Additionally, the warming trend
resumes with high temps slowly climbing into the mid/upper 80s next
week. Low-level moisture looks to increase as well next week, with
dew points into the 60s becoming a common occurrence. As such, the
probability of heat indices near or over 90 degrees is increasing.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

Surface high pressure over the eastern part of the country will keep
winds light and variable overnight. As surface high pressure slides
further eastward today...winds will veer to south then southwest at
10 to 15kts into the afternoon before backing to light southerly
this evening.

Cirrus overnight will gradually diminish in coverage after daybreak.
May see a few diurnal cu sneak into the southern half of central
Indiana Thursday afternoon as a subtle increase in low level
moisture lifts into the region. Increasing cirrus will overspread
the region from the west this evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff