884
FXUS63 KIND 111811
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
211 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers along with a few storms return
  tonight and continue into Saturday

- Generally above normal temperatures through the period, with the
  exception of Monday.

- Rain chances return Sunday and again Tuesday through next Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Saturday...

This afternoon, an upper trough was across Missouri into Arkansas.
Most rain to the south of the area had dissipated. Thicker clouds
continued across the far southern forecast area.

The upper trough will gradually move northeast through the forecast
area through Saturday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible late this afternoon into this evening across the southern
forecast area, but better chances for rain will arrive overnight as
the upper trough gets closer.

Increasing mid level winds will lead to increasing isentropic lift
overnight, and this flow will also bring in better moisture. These
should be enough for scattered to numerous showers to develop
overnight and continue into Saturday morning. The highest coverage
will be across the eastern forecast area where forcing will be
highest.

Some thunder is possible, but severe weather is not expected.

Some patchy fog may also form overnight as the atmosphere moistens
up.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east on Saturday afternoon
as forcing from the upper trough exits.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s, with highs on Saturday in the 80s.

Sunday and Monday...

Guidance has trended stronger with an upper trough on Sunday, which
will send more cooler air into the area behind a front, which should
now move south of the area Sunday night. The front will bring
scattered convection with it, so will have some chance PoPs Sunday
into Sunday night.

Some guidance is quite aggressive with the cooler air moving in
Sunday afternoon, with falling temperatures in the late afternoon.
Am not confident of this occurring though. At any rate, temperatures
will peak in the 80s on Sunday.

High pressure should keep Monday quiet and cooler. Uncertainties
remain on just how cool it will be now. NBM 25th and 75th Max T
percentiles for Indy are 76 and 84 respectively. Will stick close to
the mean for now given the uncertainty.

Tuesday onward...

The upper ridge should quickly return north into the area on
Tuesday. This and southwest winds on the west side of exiting high
pressure will allow temperatures to quickly rebound into the upper
80s to lower 90s for highs Tuesday.

For Wednesday into Friday, an upper trough well to the north of the
area will try and push the ridge south and west again. As it does, a
surface front will attempt to move south into the area.

Guidance continues to vary in how fast this occurs, and this
increases the uncertainty in high temperatures and when the best
chances for rain will be during this period. Given this uncertainty,
see no reason to deviate from blended guidance.

This results in PoPs Wednesday through Friday, with gradually
cooling temperatures from the upper 80s/lower 90s Wednesday to upper
70s/lower 80s by Friday. However, the details will likely change.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible early, mainly KBMG/KHUF
- Scattered to numerous showers at most sites, mainly overnight
  into Saturday morning
- Patchy fog possible predawn Saturday
- MVFR ceilings Saturday

Discussion:

Scattered to broken cumulus may still be at MVFR levels early the
period, mainly at KHUF/KBMG. Otherwise, VFR clouds will gradually
increase into this evening.

Isolated showers are possible for the southern sites late this
afternoon into the evening, then scattered to numerous showers will
move southwest to northeast across the sites. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible. KLAF will have the lowest odds of seeing any rain.

Showers will continue into Saturday morning then diminish. MVFR
ceilings are likely Saturday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50