898
FXUS63 KIND 131915
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through early Friday

- Rain chances return late this week with additional chances for
  precipitation next week

- Much warmer this weekend into early next week with highs in the
  upper 80s to near 90F

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Thursday as upper
ridging and surface high pressure are centered across the region.
Diurnal mixing along with a modest pressure gradient between a
departing low pressure system and the approaching high has promoted
breezy conditions today. Look for these winds to quickly subside
this evening once the PBL decouples. Efficient radiational will
allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s overnight. A few
locations across the far N/NW may briefly fall into the upper 30s.
Temperatures then quickly warm back up well into the 60s to near 70F
in some spots.

Friday through Saturday night...

Guidance depicts a more active pattern developing towards the end of
the week once upper ridging shifts east. A few low amplitude
disturbances traversing the region and sufficient moisture advection
supports increasing rain chances. The first shortwave moves in on
Friday with a better chance for convection on Saturday ahead of a
more organized upper wave. Warm moist advection and daytime heating
should promote destabilization through the day. Meanwhile, a low
amplitude shortwave moving through supports strengthening deep-layer
flow. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but this setup could
promote a few strong storms. There is the potential for
destabilization to be significantly limited by early day convection
so confidence on the severe weather remains low.

Sunday onward...

Upper ridging building in will likely keep weather conditions quiet
from Sunday through much of the day Monday. Increasing warm air
advection during this period should allow for temperatures to warm
well into the 80s. Dewpoints are also going to rise well into the
60s making it feel muggy. Rain chances quickly return late Monday
into Tuesday and onward as additional shortwaves move through the
region. Long range guidance depicts deeper gulf moisture returning
northward with these systems which should support the potential for
storms at times.

Severe weather is not expected at this time due to the more
favorable deep-layer shear and instability remaining further west,
but this will continue to be monitored closely. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Tuesday before returning to
near seasonal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Impacts:

- Northwesterly gusts up to 25kts through 00Z this evening

Discussion:

An expansive cu field has developed and is moving through central
Indiana. MVFR ceilings are unlikely with only low end VFR ceilings
expected through the afternoon. An isolated shower cannot be ruled
out, but chances are too low for a mention in the TAF at this time.
Northwesterly winds are expected to gust upwards of 25kts at times
through the afternoon, ending around 00Z or shortly after.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo