579
FXUS63 KIND 072314
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
614 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is possible late tonight into Sunday morning with an
  inch or less possible

- Light rain and snow may occur at times mid to late
  week next week

- Ice Jam development remains a concern next week with milder
  temperatures expected

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Satellite shows lake-effect clouds extending from Lake Michigan to
about the Indianapolis area. These clouds have gradually evolved
from stratus to stratocumulus in conjunction with peak daytime
heating. Surface observations show high pressure building in from
the west, though the high`s center is not quite here yet. With
diminishing winds off the lake, broad subsidence arriving, and the
dependence of stratocumulus on diurnal heating, we expect these
clouds to diminish quickly this evening.

We do not expect skies to become completely clear, however, as a
clipper system approaches from the west. High cirrus is already
beginning to appear on the western sky. Cirrus should remain thin
through the evening hours, which may allow for a period of decent
radiative cooling potential before midnight. Combined with light
winds and a residual snowpack, temperatures likely drop fast after
00z before leveling off as thicker mid/high-level clouds arrive.
Lows tonight are therefore tricky since they depend on how quickly
thicker cloud cover arrives. We`ve trended lower than guidance
across the eastern half of our CWA and near to above guidance across
the west, since the clouds arrive from the west.

Focusing back on the aforementioned clipper system...guidance is
showing decent warm air advection arriving late tonight ahead of the
system. This, combined with some broad mid-level convergence, leads
to a narrow area of frontogenesis on the northeastern flank of the
approaching system. Additionally, some upper-level divergence will
help with overall lifting. Nearly all guidance shows a band of light
snow developing late tonight into Sunday morning coincident with
this region of forcing. Some CAMs are a bit aggressive showing a
couple of inches of snowfall, though most guidance is on the light
side with around an inch on average. The biggest question is
placement of the band, as guidance is in relatively poor agreement
on its exact location. A loose consensus puts it over the
northeastern portion of our CWA. As such, we`ve included a broad
area of slight to chance PoPs from Indianapolis northeastward.

A potential limiting factor for snowfall overnight into Sunday is a
very dry layer of air between 900mb and 800mb. This could easily
prevent most of the snow from reaching the ground, especially
outside of the primary axis of lift. If anything, this likely keeps
the snow band narrow as lighter snow on the edges fails to reach the
ground. Only in the middle of the band could the snow be heavy
enough to reach the surface. Tonight`s forecast will likely need to
be refined as guidance comes into better agreement on the exact
placement of the snow band.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Substantially warmer temperatures are a welcome expectation during
the coming week. A couple of opportunities for precipitation are
expected from mid week onward, though uncertainty is fairly high at
this point.

The synoptic pattern looks to deamplify significantly during the
week, with upper level flow becoming significantly more zonal for
much of the week and even some weak upper level ridging possible at
times. Complex evolution of upper level disturbances and a frontal
zone that may set up to our south later this week, along with
guidance discrepancies that grow significantly with time, lead to a
lower confidence forecast with respect to precipitation, which will
keep chances fairly low for the most part, and uncertainty with
respect to type.

The early week will be dry under the influence of strong surface
high pressure to our east. A dry cold front will pass through the
area late Tuesday, with the tail end stalling to our south at least
temporarily. Convergence along this boundary and a modest upper
level disturbance may promote the development of rain late Tuesday
into early Wednesday, with some potential for mixing north, though
as guidance continues to trend steadily southward with this precip,
there are significant questions as to how far north the
precipitation threat will get, and indeed whether it will make it
into central Indiana at all.

Late week into next weekend, models diverge greatly on their
handling of the aforementioned frontal zone and potential for
additional precip associated with it, or with a potential stronger
low developing over the central CONUS. Low chances will be needed
roughly from late Thursday onward, with some question as to type at
times, but this portion of the forecast is extremely low confidence.

Confidence is greater that temperatures, especially during the first
half of the week will be near to above normal, likely well above
normal on Tuesday, with the remainder of the week likely settling
somewhere in the range of seasonal normals, which, at least for
Indianapolis are in the upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows
currently.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances will lead
to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding
along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but
most guidance keeps rainfall amounts relatively light at this time.
The potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice
begins to thaw.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF Period
- Low chance of snow showers near IND early Sunday

Discussion:

High pressure was in place across Indiana late this afternoon.
Visible imagery shows high CI streaming across Indiana within the NW
flow aloft. Some Lower clouds, still VFR were found over western IL
and WI, also pushing southeast within the flow. Radar shows some
returns with these clouds, but it remains virga. Dew Points across
Central Indiana remained very dry, around 10F.

The lower clouds associated with a short wave will push across
Central Indiana overnight, resulting in an increase of mid
cloudiness. Due to the dry lower levels, no confidence for snow at
the TAF sites, but HRRR does suggest some precipitation near the
Anderson/Muncie/Winchester areas. Thus have used a VCSH for IND and
LAF with low confidence.

Mid level clouds are expected to persist on Sunday as forecast
soundings show mid level saturation through the day with dry air
within the lower levels. Thus more continue VFR Cigs through much of
the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Nield/Melo
AVIATION...Puma