778
FXUS63 KIND 192318
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
718 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect through 8AM Thursday across the northern
half of central IN with localized flash flooding possible

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this
afternoon into tonight, isolated severe storms are possible

- Generally drier late this week through early next week, but there
is a chance for showers and storms late Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

As of this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have popped up across
north-central Indiana. There is a marginal severe threat this
afternoon through the evening with isolated damaging winds
possible and some hail as well. With how saturated the ground is,
trees could more easily be knocked over.

Flooding continues to be the main threat for the forecast area
unfortunately. Some of these afternoon storms are already
producing rain rate of over 2 in/hr, across northern portion of
the forecast area. A flood watch is in effect through the morning.
Rivers and creeks are likely to rise again from this rain. Where
exact impacts occur will depend on which river basin the highest
amounts of rainfall fall. Models have been largely highlighting
that some of these highest amounts will fall over the White River
basin, which could lead to river points along the White within
Indianapolis to return to action stage by the weekend and can`t
rule out a chance of brief return to Minor flooding too.

Rivers remain high across the area, continue avoiding flood waters
and stay out of rivers.

Behind the wave, northwest flow will become more dominate aloft as
upper high pressure builds over the desert SW and upper troughing
builds to the NE of the forecast area. Meanwhile at the surface,
weak high pressure will generally be in the region leading to a
mostly dry rest of the forecast period outside of periodic chances
for showers and storms. Saturday seems to be the next best chance of
precipitation but again, those are still low chances. Temperatures
throughout the forecast period will see highs in the upper 70s to
low/mid 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly scattered SHRA...isolated TSRA...through 06Z Thursday
- FG/low stratus likely by 08Z Thursday for most terminals

Discussion:

Weak cold front currently aligned from Detroit back through the Quad
Cities area will slowly pass central Indiana terminals by 12Z
Thursday.  Ahead of this boundary`s slow motion, expect a west to
east area of numerous SHRA to slide from KLAF early this evening, to
KHUF/KBMG around 01Z-03Z...with more widely scattered -SHRA elsewhere
and otherwise.  Embedded, isolated TSRA will contain MVFR down to
brief IFR, although confidence only high enough for PROB30/ TEMPO
mention.  Fluctuating flight rules are likely in any stronger
convection through at least 04Z.

Post-frontal low stratus and/or BR/FG is likely to bring MVFR,
starting by 10Z...with IFR/worse possible, especially near areas
that receive the most rainfall tonight.  Winds outside of convective
cells to be sustained mainly under 7KT, shifting from southwesterly
early this evening...to north-northeasterly at most sites by 06Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
054>057.

&&

$$

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...KF