041
FXUS63 KIND 021048
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect for all of central Indiana through
  Thursday evening with peak heat index values up to 105 are
  possible each afternoon

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times
  late this week through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Deep ridging over the central CONUS will be the predominant driver
of our upcoming weather over the next several days. Warm SW flow has
pushed temperatures well above normal, with high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s through at least Thursday. This in combination with
dew points in the low 70s will push heat index values above 100 each
afternoon, prompting a Heat Advisories until 8PM Thursday.

The ridging is then expected to retrograde which could introduce
showers and storms into portions of the area as early as late in the
day Thursday. However, there is a bit of uncertainty with this as it
is unclear on how quickly the ridge will drift back west and it`s
amplitude. Confidence in convection on the northern periphery of the
ridge is high, but how far south this area of convection reaches is
where confidence wanes. Currently the expectation is for a majority
of any precipitation Thursday afternoon to remain just north of the
area, but the margin for error is small. Should these storms make it
into central Indiana, there is a threat of severe weather with them
with damaging winds the main threat.

A strengthening trough over the east coast will help to push the
ridge further west late week into the weekend. This could lead to
additional chances for showers and storms but again low confidence
on timing and location.

Temperatures will be slightly lower going into the weekend but still
expected to be above normal. The start of the new week could see
nearer to normal temps but well above normal can`t be ruled out for
the extended period with a few chances for PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 16KT possible this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions to continue through the period under a stacked, hot
subtropical ridge whose center will slowly drift from the TN Valley
into the Southern Appalachians.

Clouds through the period will include occasional cirrus flowing
around the ridge`s northern tier, and therefore most likely at KLAF/
KIND and afternoon cumulus that may occasionally reach SCT coverage.
Southwest winds expected through the period with an increase in
speed during the day today with gusts near 16kt possible at LAF
during the afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF/Updike