934
FXUS63 KIND 261852
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
252 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances this evening into tonight with
  additional convection possible on Wednesday

- Localized flash flooding possible tonight through Wednesday

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

A challenging forecast lies ahead as a mid level vort max pushes
northward, impinging on a broad area of high pressure. This is
leading to a dichotomy of weather conditions across the forecast
area, with slightly warmer and dry surface conditions over far N/NW
central Indiana, and the rest of central Indiana slightly cooler and
elevated dew points. Clouds will remain over most of the area, with
a few pockets of sunshine possible over that same N/NW portion of
the area.

Current radar imagery depicts rain pushing northward with our
southern tier of counties currently beneath light rain. This area of
rain will mix out some as it lifts northward and interacts with the
previously mentioned high pressure. Still period of light rain will
be possible all the way up to the I-70 corridor through the early
evening.

After 02Z, mid level lapse rates will begin to cool and broad lift
will continue to push northward, eventually leading to a narrow zone
of weak elevated instability. This zone is expected to be about 50-
100mi wide and produce consistent convective cells. Models still
vary on where this zone of convection will be located, ranging from
just north of the I-70 corridor a line from Bloomington to Seymour.
Those within this zone will likely see a broad inches of rain, with
pockets of 2 inches depending on how transient this line progresses.

As cold pools develop some of the available energy for updrafts will
diminish leading to a brief period of lower PoPs tomorrow morning.
PoPs and thunder chances will increase again in the late morning to
early afternoon S/E of Indianapolis, with rain and thunder pushing
east with time.


Thursday onward:

Look for rain chances to quickly diminish as a disturbance moves out
of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Long range guidance
depicts an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging
centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the
north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week
through early next week. The stagnant mundane weather pattern
could continue beyond day 7. Expect another warm day Thursday in
the low 80s with temperatures then holding nearly steady in the
mid to upper 70s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Impacts:

- Chance of showers this evening (KBMG), with widespread showers
  later tonight (KBMG/KIND/KHUF)

- MVFR this evening at most sites; IFR possible at KBMG

Discussion:

High clouds will remain throughout the afternoon with low clouds
pushing in from the south. MVFR ceilings will likely begin shortly
at KBMG, reaching KHUF and KIND this evening. As showers push
further north, IFR ceilings will be possible at KBMG. Lesser
confidence in MVFR ceilings at KLAF, with some potential after 08Z.

Showers are possible this afternoon primarily at KBMG, but better
chances for rain spread north tonight. Banded rainfall is expected
to set up near KIND overnight where thunder will be possible. This
area of showers and storms will push to the S/E over time, with
possible impacts to KBMG between 12-18Z tomorrow.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Updike/Melo