742
FXUS63 KIND 311052
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
652 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH at times today and Thursday

- Wet pattern through the week and into the weekend, with multiple
  rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce renewed
  flooding along area waterways

- A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are
  possible across mainly northern portions of central Indiana late
  today and tonight

- Potential for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather for
  late Thursday and again late Saturday

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A frontal zone to the north will slowly push southward into the
region late today into tonight. A good surface pressure gradient,
steep low level lapse rates, and strong low level flow will combine
to produce wind gusts to around 40 MPH at times this afternoon,
despite increasing mid and high cloud ahead of the approaching front
and as a consequence of upstream convection. Additionally, despite
this cloud cover, temperatures should climb well into the 70s across
the area, with the low 80s likely south.

As the boundary approaches the area later today and moves into the
region tonight, shower and storm chances will increase from north to
south across the area. Moderate instability developing along and
ahead of the boundary coupled with ample deep layer shear will
present the potential for a few strong to severe storms, with the
best chances over the north late this afternoon into this evening.
How early the severe threat begins will depend upon the activity of
one or more remnant outflow boundaries from ongoing convection over
eastern Iowa/northern Illinois. Earlier activity would be more
likely to pose a threat for all hazards, with wind becoming more of
a concern with time as upscale growth becomes more probable.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be likely tonight into
Wednesday evening as the front stalls in the region before lifting
back northward Wednesday night as a warm front. Despite only subtle
midlevel disturbances, strong frontal forcing in a deeply moist
environment will work to produce these showers and storms, which may
produce heavy rainfall at times as precipitable water values
approach or exceed climatological maximum for the time of year.
Given ample rainfall and flooding in recent weeks, will have to
closely monitor hydrologic situation with time, particularly as
multiple rounds of precipitation occur. Current hydrologic ensemble
forecasts indicate a substantial likelihood of at least minor
flooding developing this week along much of the Wabash and portions
of the White and East Fork White as well.

A much more substantial upper level low will drive a stronger
surface system into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night,
bringing high PoPs for showers and thunderstorms back to the area.
The even more substantial surface pressure gradient will produce
another quite windy day on Thursday, with gusts pushing 40 MPH again
likely. Additionally, sufficient instability and shear is likely to
exist for another at least minor severe threat Thursday into
Thursday night, though uncertainty is obviously greater with time.

With the exception of Wednesday, with the front in the area,
temperatures will be well above normal, as much as 20 to 25 degrees.
Even Wednesday appears likely to still be above normal across much
of the area, if cooler than today and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Friday into Saturday Night....

A progressive upper pattern is suggested to be in place as we start
Friday. The wave of forcing dynamics producing Thursday`s rain will
have exited east, while weak ridging builds across the upper
midwest. Meanwhile a stronger upper trough and low will emerging
from MT and WY.

Models suggest the frontal boundary left in the wake of Thursday`s
systems will get hung up over northern Indiana, keeping Central
Indiana within the warm sector on Friday. Forecast soundings suggest
dry mid and upper levels through the day with some saturation within
the lower levels through the day. The dry air aloft looks to be due
to subsidence from the weak upper ridging aloft. This should allow
for mainly a dry and warm day, but small chances for rain cannot be
ruled out because of the lingering frontal boundary and the warm and
moist surface flow within the warm sector.

This warm and an moist air mass with little forcing available looks
to remain in place on Friday night and into early Saturday. Thus at
this point many dry hours will be expected, but pops cannot be
removed due to the low, stray shower chance. Temperatures on Friday
and again on Saturday will remain rather warm, and above normal as
we reside within the warm sector. Highs in the 70s will be common.

The best chances for rain will be on Saturday afternoon and Saturday
Night. The previously mentioned upper support over MT and WY will
arrive across Central Indiana by Saturday afternoon, and the upper
wave will pass through Saturday Night. This systems will drag a cold
front across Indiana on Saturday evening and Saturday night as low
pressure moves through through the Great Lakes. Given the favorable
ingredients for precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will be
expected and high pops will be used. Confidence for rain on Saturday
afternoon and night is growing.

Sunday and Monday...

Outside the chance for a lingering morning showers behind the front
on Sunday morning, Sunday and Monday will be mainly dry days across
central Indiana. The upper trough axis is suggested to exit east of
Indiana while ridging over the western CONUS builds. This will lead
to leeside subsidence flowing across the northern plains and allow
surface high pressure to develop and build across Indiana on Sunday
afternoon into Monday. The cooler, Canadian high pressure system
will provide slightly below normal temperatures, with highs in the
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Impacts:

- Low Level Wind Shear through 14Z

- Southwest winds gusting 20-25KT early, gradually increasing to
  30-35KT during the afternoon

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms after 00-02Z this evening

Discussion:

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Elongated
low pressure along a surface cold front to our northwest will
produce wind gusts at times through this afternoon, generally from
200-220 degrees. Gusts this morning will be 20-25KT at times,
strengthening this afternoon to 30-35KT.

Additionally, strong low level flow will produce borderline LLWS
conditions at times, with 2kft winds around 230 degrees at 40-50KT
across the area. Will carry LLWS at all sites until the low level
jet weakens slightly mid morning.

As the front drops into the area this evening, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase, particularly over the north. Will
carry prevailing showers at LAF after 00Z with a VCTS mention.
Otherwise will carry a PROB30 thunder mention after 00Z at IND/HUF
and 02Z at BMG. Occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in the
stronger showers/storms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield