930
FXUS63 KIND 111950
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures and quiet conditions through
  Friday

- Rain chances increase Late Saturday, but bulk of precipitation
  is expected to remain south of central Indiana.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week amid milder
  conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Weak CAA in the wake of a departing wave will create pressure rises
over the upper Ohio Valley today through tomorrow. In return,
central Indiana will experience a brief period of mundane weather.
That said, there will be slight differences in weather between today
and tomorrow as the low level pressure slowly builds.

For today, temperatures are likely to be slightly higher as the
bulk of the cold air remains to the north and a well mixed PBL
allows for low level drying; current forecast is for Indianapolis
to top out around 45 degrees, with most of central Indiana
exceeding 40. Also, winds will be slightly higher today; initially
to be out of the WNW/NW between 10-13kt with occasional gusts to
20kt.

Tonight, diurnal decoupling will calm winds some with generally
sustained winds between 5-7kt out of the NNW/N. This should lead to
a typical diurnal curve with lows in the mid to low 20s. For
tomorrow, the center of the surface high will near leading to much
calmer, and variable winds with similar temperatures of highs in the
low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

The long term will enter a slightly more active stretch as the east
coast trough breaks down and the low level jet stream interacts with
the ridge over the plains. In return strong WAA across the mid-
Mississippi valley will lead to low level pressure drops, eventually
creating a mid level shortwave as CVA increases. High pressure over
the Great Lakes region will likely shift the steering flow to
easterly, of which is placing a majority of ensemble surface low
pressure output south of Indiana. This will likely place a majority
of the forcing south of the area as well, with the greatest
precipitation axis over the southern Ohio Valley to Tennessee
Valley. There is a contingent of ensemble members that are pointing
towards a weak deformation zone over southern Indiana Saturday
night, of which could lead to light to moderate stratiform rain, but
confidence is not high as low level moisture return is expected to
be weak.

The aforementioned WAA will lead to a 5 to 10 degree warm-up this
weekend, but this warming trend will be curtailed some by an
increase in mid level cloud cover. Current expectation is for high
temperatures each day in the upper 40s to low 50s, but any areas
that receive rain or an increase in low level cloud cover Saturday
could end up slightly lower.

Following the passage of this mid level wave, pressure increases
throughout the whole column will lead to a significant warm up for
early next week. How warm we get will depend on the placement of the
polar jet; regardless there is high confidence in temperatures well
above normal for Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances are
more uncertain and will depend how the emerging trough over the
Eastern Pacific interacts and phases with the previously discussed
mid-continental ridge.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Pressure will build over the area today and tomorrow resulting in
weakening and varying winds throughout the TAF period. Initially
winds are expected to be out of the WNW/NW between 10-13kt;
occasional gusts to 20kt are possible this afternoon but have
only been included at KLAF due to expected frequency of
occurrence. Tonight, winds will shift towards the NNW/N but remain
below 10kt. Tomorrow, winds will continue to weaken and vary
considerably under 5kt.

Mostly clear skies are expected outside of passing 20-25kft cirrus.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Updike