942
FXUS63 KIND 211943
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rainfall through tonight; warmer and sunnier this weekend

- Additional rainfall early next week with much cooler weather
  likely post-Thanksgiving

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Dreary conditions will persist across central Indiana into Saturday
morning.

Isentropic lift will continue into the evening hours ahead of an
area of surface low pressure. Moisture will continue to be enough to
work with the forcing to keep rain at times across the area. Will
continue with high PoPs at times from this afternoon into the
evening. Some elevated instability may sneak into the far southern
forecast area, but feel odds of thunder will be too low to mention.

During the overnight, an upper trough will move through. This will
be enough to keep some patchy light rain around, so will go with
some chance PoPs overnight.

Forcing should be far enough east by 12Z Saturday to go with a dry
forecast. Drier air will work into the area as high pressure moves
south. Some questions remain on how fast the drier air arrives and
when it will be enough to scour out the persistent low level
moisture. For now will go closer to the more pessimistic blend of
short term higher res guidance. Even with this, some sunshine is
expected most locations by the end of the day.

Clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, even
after the area of low pressure exits to the east. Will go with lows
in the upper 30s to middle 40s most areas. On Saturday, will go a
little cooler than guidance for highs given the more pessimistic
cloud cover forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

After the passage of the low tonight, modest WAA in the lower levels
will aid in the emergence of high pressure across the central CONUS,
with dry and above normal temperatures expected Saturday night
through Monday. This dry pattern will be short lived however, as a
deep trough will approach from the southwest late Monday through the
middle of next week. This trough is currently spinning over the
southwest coast, but will eventually push eastward as the upper
level jet phases.

As this trough passes over the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected
to begin on Monday, quickly advancing to the NE within strong upper
level flow. The current expectation is for this surface low to pass
well to the north, with rain chances along a subsequent pressure
trough Monday night and Tuesday. Uncertainty begins to increase
significantly after the low passage mid week, with a widespread in
ensemble solutions dealing with this low`s interaction with a strong
baroclinic zone across southern Canada. This interaction could push
much colder air and chances for snow into the Ohio Valley late week,
but confidence in any specific hazards is low. At the moment, highs
are expected to be in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Impacts:

- Poor flying conditions continue into tonight
- Some improvement possible Saturday morning, more likely
  Saturday afternoon
- Rain at times into tonight

Discussion:

Poor flying conditions will continue into tonight with rain at times
at the TAF sites. Ceilings are likely to bounce around the lower
categories, with visibility varying at times too.

Rain will diminish tonight, but clouds will take longer to exit.
Some questions remain on how fast they will clear out and when the
improvement will occur.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50