923
FXUS63 KIND 091824
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible into this evening,
  mainly southeast. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- More widespread showers and storms Thursday, mainly south

- Cooler Thursday and Friday, but warmer air returns by early
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Thursday...

Scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon along
boundaries ahead of a cold front. Instability will be enough for an
isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across the southeast half of
the area which has seen the most sunshine so far today. Damaging
winds will be the primary severe threat.

Thanks to the sunshine, the southeast half of the area will see hot
and humid conditions this afternoon.

By 00Z, the best chances for rain should be across the far southeast
forecast area as the boundaries shift southeast. However, with the
front still in the vicinity, the threat for at least an isolated
shower will continue most other locations.

Overnight into Thursday morning a wave will move through the area,
bringing another surge of moisture and forcing. The best of these
will be across the southern forecast area, so went likely PoPs there
at times during this period. Chance PoPs will continue farther to
the north.

Thursday afternoon into the evening, PoPs will end from northwest to
southeast as forcing exits.

Still could be some locally heavy rain tonight south with
precipitable water values over 2 inches. However, local probability
matched means from the CAMs have shifted the focus farther south
than previous runs.

Clouds will help keep highs in the upper 70s to around 80 on
Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...

With the old front in the vicinity and some weak upper impulses
moving through, there will remain a chance for showers and
thunderstorms during this period. Present indications are that the
southern and eastern forecast areas will have the highest chances,
but given the weak expected forcing will only go low chance PoPs.

Cooler air behind the front will keep highs from around 80 to the
lower 80s on Friday, but warmer air will begin to return Saturday
with highs in the middle 80s for much of the area.

Sunday and Monday...

The upper ridge to the southwest will once again try and nudge its
way into the area, bringing a return of very warm to hot conditions.
At the moment, it appears that the ridge will be enough to prevent
most convection. However, with a warm front in the area, wouldn`t be
surprised to see at least isolated convection.

Highs by Monday will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday and beyond...

There remains some uncertainty on how well a stronger upper trough
to the north will be able to push the upper ridge off to the
southeast into mid-week next week. This will determine how far south
a cold front gets.

Will go with some broadbrushed chance PoPs for Tuesday and
Wednesday. With more confidence in the ridge on Tuesday, will keep
temperatures hot with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. For
Wednesday will allow some cooling a bit with readings generally in
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Impacts:

- Peak wind gusts around 20kt this afternoon
- Scattered convection mainly before 00Z
- Additional showers late tonight into Thursday, especially south
- Some potential for MVFR early Thursday

Discussion:

Scattered cumulus and broken mid cloud will continue into tonight,
then lower VFR ceilings will develop late tonight into Thursday
morning. Some MVFR ceilings will be around on Thursday morning.
Also, some fog is possible near sunrise.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along
multiple boundaries this afternoon. The threat will gradually move
south and east, ending most areas by 00Z. Additional showers and
isolated storms will move in overnight into Thursday, especially
south.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50