662
FXUS63 KIND 121004
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
604 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and windy today with much warmer air returning

- Chances for rain and storms returns for much of the upcoming week
  with a risk for severe weather focused late Tuesday into Wednesday

- Warm temperatures expected all next week with multiple days in the
  lower to mid 80s

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Mid and high level clouds drifted across the region this morning
with upper level ridging present. Temperatures were in the 50s at
06Z.

A warm front will lift across the region this morning then become
quasi-stationary from the central Plains into the upper Midwest as
multiple surface waves track along the boundary. A warmer and
progressively humid airmass will advect into areas south of the
front for much of the upcoming week. Periodic opportunities for
convection will exist all week especially by Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front drifts south closer to central Indiana. The
front will finally move through the Ohio Valley next weekend
bringing cooler temperatures.

Today through Monday Night

High pressure has moved into New England early this morning but
remains close enough to the region to maintain its influence. Not
expecting any light rain accompanying the warm front as it lifts
north this morning with limited low level moisture and forcing
aloft. A tightening surface pressure gradient and dry adiabatic flow
developing up to near 750mb as the day progresses strongly supports
a windy afternoon for the forecast area with gusts in excess of 30
mph at times. Highest wind gusts are likely to be concentrated in
the northern Wabash Valley in closer proximity to the stronger low
level flow. The combination of the well mixed boundary layer and the
gusty southwest winds will enable temperatures to surge into the
lower 80s this afternoon. RH values may slip into the 30-40% range
across the southeast half of the forecast area for a few hours this
afternoon which could lead to a subtle uptick in fire danger.

Clouds will thicken from the west late day into the evening ahead of
an approaching upper level wave moving out of the Missouri Valley.
Scattered showers will move into the Wabash Valley as early as near
or just after sunset and expand east...but model soundings continue
to highlight dry air lingering within the boundary layer into the
early overnight. An expansion in shower coverage will likely hold
off until an increase in isentropic lift courtesy of an 50-60kt
850mb jet arrives around 06Z and after. Will focus greater rain
chances in the second half of the overnight. An isolated thunder
risk remains bout the overall thermodynamic profiles late tonight
are not particularly conducive for stronger convection through
early Monday.

Deeper moisture associated with the upper level wave will shift east
of the area shortly after daybreak Monday but an increasingly
unstable airmass aided by diurnal heating will maintain a risk for
scattered convection into the afternoon prior to ridging aloft
reestablishing by Monday evening. Highs will rise in the upper 70s
and lower 80s on Monday with a noticeable uptick in humidity.

Tuesday through Saturday

An amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a western trough and
an eastern ridge will set up a favorable southwest flow regime into
the region with convective risks persisting through much of the rest
of the week.

Potential for strong to severe storms continue to focus across the
forecast area late Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a sharper
upper wave tracks into the upper Midwest and the frontal boundary
drifts south closer to central indiana. Given the forecast
thermodynamic profiles and available instability...all modes of
severe weather would be in play across central Indiana during this
timeframe. Locally heavy rainfall would also be a concern. The front
will drift south but likely linger in the Ohio Valley into next
weekend before finally clearing the region as a strong upper level
low tracks across southern Canada and forces the ridge axis east
into the western Atlantic. Signs are pointing towards another risk
for severe weather Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front
sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures from the upper 70s to
mid 80s will be common this week with the potential to approach
record highs on Tuesday. Cooler weather will arrive in wake of the
frontal passage next weekend and may last into early the following
week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 604 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts at 25 to 30kts this afternoon
- Low level wind shear developing this evening
- Scattered showers mainly late this evening into the overnight

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Ridging aloft remains across the Ohio Valley early this morning and
will linger for much of the day. A warm front will shift north of
the area this morning with winds veering to southwest and becoming
gusty from midday through tonight. Peak gusts this afternoon will
approach 30kts at times.

Mid and high clouds will drift across the area throughout the day
before thickening and lowering tonight in advance of an upper level
wave that will move across the area. Scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will impact the terminals focused especially
overnight as a low level jet moves into the region. With winds near
50kts at 3kft agl...low level wind shear will develop for several
hours during the evening and early overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan