697
FXUS63 KIND 311836
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather expected today through next week.

- Near-average temperatures, highs near 80, lows in 50s/60s.

- Isolated showers Monday; next best chance for widespread rain will
be on Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Fairly quiet start to Meteorological Summer ahead as ridging
dominants the weather pattern locally over the next week. There will
be some subtle changes in the overall set up, but sensible weather
at the surface should remain fairly consistent with mainly dry
conditions and near normal temperatures.

An upper level omega blocking pattern is currently set up over the
CONUS with a thin ridge axis from Winnipeg, Manitoba southeastward
to the lower Mississippi Valley. Indiana remains just to the east of
the ridge axis, which is acting as almost a wall keeping any
convection south and west of Central Indiana. Surface high pressure
resides over Ontario for the next few days resulting in
northeasterly flow keeping a drier airmass in place for this time of
year and temperatures largely around average with highs in the 70s
to near 80 and lows in the 50s to near 60.

Minor change to the overall pattern occurs tomorrow as the omega
block briefly reorients itself and ridging sharpens over the Plains,
placing Indiana within a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. The NW-SE
boundary which had been in place over the Plains, keeping storms
away from Indiana, briefly shifts eastward tonight, potentially
placing portions of the state in the vicinity of the storm track.
High pressure at the surface will still be the dominant weather
influence locally keeping the low levels fairly dry, so not
expecting widespread rain or storms in the area; however CAMs
guidance has been consistent in showing the potential for some
precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. A shortwave within the
NW flow aloft dives southeast into Illinois tonight, sparking off a
nocturnal MCS just to the south and west of Central Indiana. This
system could impact far western and southwestern Indiana in the
morning hours, then additional showers may develop during peak
heating of the day along leftover boundaries.  Keeping 20-30 PoPs
across Central Indiana for tomorrow. Confidence is still low on how
the mesoscale features will evolve upstream going into tonight and
tomorrow as CAMs struggle in these situations. Will raise PoPs as
needed based on trends later this evening and tonight in Illinois
and Missouri. Overall not expecting a washout of day for Monday, but
thicker cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers with highs in
the 70s is the most likely outcome.

For the rest of next week, upper ridging redevelops overhead while
high pressure over Canada shifts southward into the southeast CONUS.
This pattern supports continued dry conditions for Central Indiana
with a warming trend by next weekend as flow becomes southwesterly.
Expect highs to gradually warm into the mid 80s by the end of the
week with lows in the mid 60s as humidity values gradually increase.
Longer range guidance introduces the chance for rain and storms by
Saturday the 6th as Gulf moisture streams northward along a
boundary. Will be monitoring the storm threat next week and updating
the forecast daily as confidence increase on the exact pattern
evolution and associated threats to Central Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers possible Monday

Discussion:

No impactful changes to the ongoing forecast. VFR conditions to
persist through the period as high pressure northeast of Indiana
continues to provide dry lower level easterly flow across the TAF
sites. High cloud caught up within the upper ridging to the west
will continue to stream in overhead, becoming thicker into tonight.

CAMs continues to hint at isolated showers with high bases near
Central Indiana and points west on Monday. Some Hi-res guidance has
been more aggressive showing the potential for isolated convection
by tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is low on this occurrence, so will
keep the TAFs VFR and dry for now and will update them accordingly
based on the evolution of upstream mesoscale processes this evening.
Due to low level dry air, cigs and vis will likely remain VFR even
if showers do form tomorrow.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...CM
DISCUSSION...CM