220
FXUS63 KIND 140456
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1256 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms return late Sunday, with severe weather
  possible Sunday night.

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Recent high winds quickly departed central Indiana earlier this
evening as supporting potent storm system tracked out of Michigan
into far southeastern Ontario.  Fair weather as already settling
into the region with sustained winds as of 930PM EDT at 10-20 mph
for most locations...although 25 mph flow is hanging on at
Anderson...while Terre Haute has diminished to 5 mph. Stronger
breezes will track out of northeast zones over the next couple
hours as weak surface ridging slides into Indiana. Winds to fall
below 7 mph for all counties overnight tonight as flow veers to
N/NE by daybreak Saturday. Partly cloudy skies will oversee
readings falling to seasonably cool levels with most areas
reaching 30-35F by 12Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low pressure passing through lower Michigan with a tight MSLP
gradient has produced widespread wind gusts between 45 to 65 mph.
The strongest winds have been across the northeastern portion of our
CWA, closer to the surface low. Winds are at their peak now, and
should gradually diminish as the low pulls away. High Wind Warnings
and Wind Advisories will be allowed to expire at 8pm.

Our attention then turns to this weekend with a second system
expected to emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. This low pressure
is expected to strengthen rapidly through the day Sunday while
moving northeastward into the Great Lakes. Guidance is in good
agreement showing a broad warm sector lifting northward in response
to the developing low. Temperatures begin to climb through Saturday
night, and may be warmer at sunrise Sunday than during the previous
high temp Saturday afternoon. High temps on Sunday are expected to
climb into the 70s.

The warmth will be driven by strong mass response, as mentioned
above. A very strong low-level jet, between 60-80kt, is modeled to
develop. Diurnal mixing during the day Sunday will promote strong
wind gusts, between 40-50 mph, with some locally higher gusts
possible. Winds likely continue into the evening/night as the
surface low continues to strengthen.

A very sharp, strong cold front is modeled to accompany this system.
With a broad warm sector with abundant moisture lifting north ahead
of it, the possibility of severe weather appears increasingly
likely. Model soundings show only modest instability, though models
tend to under represent instability in advection-driven events such
as this. Regardless, shear profiles are very impressive to say the
least. Though just on the edge of their range, some high-resolution
guidance depicts long, curved hodographs with 30-40kt of shear in
the 0-1km layer.

Despite only modest lapse rates, strong frontal forcing is likely
more than enough for thunderstorms to initiate. However,
thunderstorms should largely be confined along the boundary itself,
thus favoring a squall line over free-roaming warm sector storms.
This, combined with the shear profiles, favors severe wind gusts and
QLCS tornadoes as the primary hazards. In terms of timing, right now
most guidance is locked onto the 00z to 09z timeframe. As such, this
looks to be a nocturnal event. This does not mitigate the severe
threat, however, since strong warm/moist advection is anticipated
into the night.

As mentioned above, the cold front itself is very sharp. A quick
drop in temperatures is expected once it passes through.
Temperatures are shown by guidance to quickly plummet into the
30s/40s and even into the upper 20s by daybreak Monday. Most
guidance is in good agreement showing a transition to snow by Monday
morning. Potential accumulations are uncertain, given model
differences with the position of the parent low and how quickly the
temperature drops behind the front. Still, a dusting to an inch or
two is possible. Temperatures plummeting into the 20s Monday morning
may allow for icy/slick spots to develop on roadways.

Strong winds remain likely through Monday on the back side of the
low as it exits into eastern Canada. Wind gusts between 35-45 mph
are likely throughout the day Monday. Combined with temperatures in
the 20s, wind chills may be well into the teens and possibly into
the single digits. Cold temperatures continue into Tuesday with
morning lows in the teens.

Wednesday and beyond...

A couple of weak systems within northwesterly flow aloft could bring
some light precipitation on Wednesday and then again Thursday night.
Temperatures look to moderate, potentially reaching the 60s by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Impacts:

- Winds varying in direction overnight, becoming east by 15Z
- Low chance for light rain/snow this morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mainly mid and
high clouds at times. Surface high pressure building in will bring
east winds by mid-morning.

Some weak lift in the mid levels may bring a small area of light
rain/snow to mainly KIND this morning after 12Z, but for now
confidence in anything reaching the ground is too low to include in
the TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50