342
FXUS63 KIND 130450
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1150 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers through tonight, possibly mixed with
  snow tonight into Friday.

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible this evening into tonight.

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Made minor upward adjustments to both min temperatures and cloud
cover overnight - guidance suggests low overcast should remain in
place throughout the night, which even with modest cold advection
continuing should keep temperatures a few degrees above dewpoints.
Still anticipate mid 30s lows across central Indiana. Diurnal
warming tomorrow will depend upon when breaks in the clouds begin to
form, which may not be until late in the day, which may only allow
5-8 degrees of rise tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low pressure currently resides over western Pennsylvania with broad
cyclonic flow extending throughout the Great Lakes region. Broad
lift combined with multiple subtle surface troughs are leading to
scattered showers this afternoon. With cold air advection ongoing
aloft and steepening lapse rates, precipitation has been convective
in nature. There have been a few reports of graupel at times. Mixed
precipitation will remain possible overnight as temperatures
continue to cool.

Additionally, fetch off of Lake Michigan is maximized with
northwesterly flow. This could allow for an enhanced band of
precipitation extending into the northern or northwestern portions
of our CWA. Some snow may mix in especially within this lake band
tonight into Friday morning.

Winds remain elevated as the MSLP gradient around the low remains
tight. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible through tonight.
These winds should gradually diminish tomorrow as the low pulls
away. Cloud cover may linger well into the afternoon and evening
hours on Friday as cyclonic flow maintains enough weak lift to
support stratocumulus.

As for temperatures a small diurnal spread is anticipated due to
wind and cloud cover. Highs today in the 40s will drop into the 30s
overnight. Temperatures rebound into the upper 40s again on Friday.
Skies clear over the weekend which will allow the temperature spread
to widen. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to dip
into the 20s both Friday night and Saturday night.

One caveat to the temperature forecast Saturday and Sunday is
lingering northwesterly flow. A narrow band of cloud cover extending
downwind of Lake Michigan may persist so long as the fetch remains
off the primary axis of the lake. These clouds will insulate the
boundary layer keeping lows closer to 30 compared to the mid 20s
elsewhere. Based on the expected wind field, this temperature
uncertainty is greatest across our northeastern counties.

Monday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
for much of next week. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into
the Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to
quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of
next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming
trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of
next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s
through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and
lower 30s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1150 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers at times through Friday afternoon

- Gusty northwest wind decreasing tonight

- MVFR ceilings through Friday afternoon, with occasional
  IFR possible late tonight

Discussion:

A large upper level low will continue to pivot over the area during
the forecast period with widespread low stratus...scattered showers
and chilly northwest winds expected. Widespread MVFR ceilings have
developed late this evening and will persist into Friday afternoon
with improvements by late day Friday. Some brief drops to IFR
ceilings are possible late tonight into Friday morning, but are
highly uncertain.

Northwest winds will be the rule through the period. Wind gusts
peaking at 20 to 25kts late this evening will gradually decrease
overnight. Expect winds at 10 to 15kts for most of Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Eckhoff