007
FXUS63 KIND 051446
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s today with the potential
  for scattered showers or drizzle this evening into tonight

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected
  Friday through the weekend with lows near freezing at times

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Clouds are increasing a bit faster than expected this morning. A
southern band extends from the main cloud deck down to around Terre
Haute as well. Updated sky cover to match current trends, both
speeding up arrival north as well as adding that southern extension.

Forecast highs already have cooler temperatures northwest due to the
sky cover, so left high temperatures alone for now but will continue
to monitor.

Some light rain across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana
looks to remain north of the area into this afternoon. Guidance has
slowed down arrival of additional rain later this afternoon, so have
lowered PoPs in the northwest during that time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Today through Friday...

Latest satellite imagery depicts extensive low clouds persisting
across Indiana with considerable clearing noted across southern
portions of Illinois. This clearing is associated with dry air
advection which will help to eventually clear out clouds across
much of the area this morning. The clearing is only expected to
be brief as a weakening low pressure system and parent trough
approach later in the day.

Modest moisture advection from the approaching system will quickly
filter in extensive low clouds during the afternoon hours. Weak
forcing from the aforementioned features and an associated cold
front are also likely to promote scattered showers or drizzle this
evening into the overnight hours. Cooler 850mb temperatures combined
with low clouds filtering in will keep temperatures about 10
degrees cooler than yesterday. Look for highs to generally range
from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Extensive low clouds are likely to persist through the overnight
into Friday morning as guidance suggest the aforementioned cold
front does not move through until very late tonight. Cold air
advection behind the front will help to cool temperatures into the
low-mid 40s despite the clouds. At least partial clearing is
expected during the day Friday once drier air begins to filter in.
However, scattered to broken low clouds should persist for much of
the day aided by lake enhanced low-level moisture. Limited diurnal
on top of continued cold air advection will keep highs in the low-
mid 50s. A few lake enhanced showers or patchy drizzle cannot be
ruled out, mainly across far northern counties.

Friday night through the middle of next week...

Quiet weather conditions are expected towards the end of this week
through the middle of next week as surface high pressure generally
remains in control. Ensemble guidance depicts a few subtle systems
pushing weak cold fronts through the region. Gulf moisture remaining
cutoff will keep these fronts moisture starved allowing for dry
conditions to persist. Look for highs to remain in the 50s over the
weekend before moderating back into the 60s early next week.
Meanwhile, it appears Friday night through Sunday night will feature
near or sub-freezing lows across portions of central Indiana. Cloud
cover leads to some uncertainty in forecasted lows, primarily Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional wind gusts between 18-24 kt are possible today.

- MVFR conditions return by this evening, light showers or drizzle
  possible, mainly near LAF after 02Z

Discussion:

All of the TAF sites have improved to VFR this morning as drier air
has filtered in. Look for MVFR ceilings to return by this evening as
a weak system approaches. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible at
times during the day, mainly near LAF. Scattered light showers or
drizzle will also be possible near LAF tonight after 02Z. There is a
low chance for precipitation at HUF/LAF, but confidence is still too
low for a mention in the TAFs.

Winds should prevail between 5-10kt out of the south-southwest
before increasing slightly during the day. Winds should become more
west-southwesterly through the day as boundary layer mixing resumes.
Occasional gusts between 18-24 kt are possible during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo