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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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462 FXUS63 KIND 132245 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 645 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures continuing - Increasing risk for rain and storms over the weekend with gusty winds accompanying a cold frontal passage - Turning cooler Sunday and Monday && .SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Remnants mid and high level clouds from the weakening front to the west have made it into the western half of the forecast area this afternoon while a diurnal cu field had formed where dewpoints were slightly higher further east. 18Z temperatures were in the 70s. The aforementioned front to the west had a broader area of light rain over central and northern Illinois earlier in the day but as the front has weakened further and the rain has moved east into a progressively drier airmass...have seen the precipitation area diminish significantly. This trend will continue over the next few hours although may see a few sprinkles sneak over the state line into the northern Wabash valley before fully dissipating. Ridging at the surface and aloft will remain prevalent over the Ohio Valley through the short term with moisture aloft gradually retreating to the west into Tuesday. The mid and high clouds currently over the western counties will remain in part across the area into the evening before clear skies reestablish. Easterly flow will remain light through tonight across central Indiana. Surface flow will back on Tuesday to more of a northeasterly direction aided by the expansion of high pressure into the upper Midwest. Model soundings do appear to be more favorable for scattered cu development on Tuesday focused especially across the northeast half of the forecast area. Temps...lows will be warmer tonight with a range from the mid and upper 40s over northeast counties to the lower 50s for most of the area west of I-65. Low level thermals support highs in the upper 70s for much of central Indiana with lower 80s possible in a few locations in the Wabash Valley. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Dry and quiet weather will continue through late week with broad ridging aloft and at the surface. Skies will be mostly clear through much of the period with the bulk of any increased cloud cover largely confined to midweek as a weakening frontal boundary drifts into the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout much of the extended...even as a brief cooldown arrives Wednesday and Thursday in response to heights aloft buckling slightly as a stronger upper low dives into New England and the ridge retrograding back into the Mississippi Valley. Highs will slip back into a range from the upper 60s to mid 70s east to west both days with lows sliding back to near 40 or perhaps even a touch cooler over eastern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday night. The ridge will shift back east by late week with a noted increase in southerly flow and warmer temperatures in the mid and upper 70s in response to a strong cold front moving east out of the Plains. Timing differences linger within the extended model suite but there is a growing confidence in a frontal passage Saturday night and early Sunday. This will bring the best chance for widespread rain and storms over the next 7 to 10 days with a convective risk as well. At this point...a damaging wind threat is likely to align to our southwest from the lower Ohio Valley south into the mid South in the first in this series of stronger Fall systems impacting the region. The front will also usher in gusty gradient winds for the weekend. Behind the front for late weekend into early next week...a trailing yet progressive upper trough will bring a brief but notable shot of cooler air to the Ohio Valley before airmass modification and warmer temperatures by the middle of next week as ridging aloft reestablishes. Trends do suggest that this cold front this weekend...which will be the strongest we have seen over the region so far this Fall...is likely to be the initial transitional piece in a more amplified and active weather pattern highlighted by increased variability in temperatures and precipitation chances set to extend through late month into early November. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Impacts: - None. VFR through the period. Discussion: Mid level clouds associated with a remnant frontal boundary to the NW of central Indiana will continue to diminish through the late evening hours. Meanwhile, lower clouds with ceilings between 040 and 060 over northern Illinois/Indiana will push southward into portions of central Indiana /primarily KLAF/ late tonight lasting through midday Tuesday before scattering out during the afternoon. Otherwise, broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will keep winds generally light from the north-northeast. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Crosbie |
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