129
FXUS63 KIND 190224
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1024 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers are possible late this afternoon.

- The next best chance for rain will be Sunday into Monday

- Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the period

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Minimal changes were needed for the forecast as it was in good shape
this evening. Only a few clouds remain across central Indiana and
should remain mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight. This will
allow decent drying and cooling for June and expect morning lows to
be in the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure over
eastern Ontario, providing cyclonic flow across Indiana. High
pressure was found across the NW plains states. A frontal boundary
was found still lingering across KY. A secondary cold front was
pushing south across Indiana. GOES19 shows convection over KY,
associated with the frontal boundary. Otherwise, some high clouds
were pushing across IL into IN within the WNW flow aloft. A few
showers were found with this. Water vapor overall shows mainly a
zonal flow in place across the CONUS, with subsidence in place
across the plains into Indiana. Large Surface high pressure was
found over the northwestern plains, building east.

Tonight...

Clouds associated with the passing weak upper wave will quickly exit
the area overnight as high pressure continues to build across
Indiana. This will lead to mostly clear skies. Cold air advection
and falling dew points should allow for lows in the middle 50s.

Friday through Saturday...

The large surface high pressure system over the plains will drift
toward and across Indiana on Friday through Saturday, providing fair
and mild weather. Time heights show broad subsidence remaining in
play through this period as little in the way of upper forcing
passing in the W-NW flow aloft. That flow was due to the weak
ridging building across the western CONUS. Otherwise, forecast
soundings show a dry column on Friday that should lead to partly
cloudy skies at that time.

Forecast soundings on Saturday show some mid level saturation, but
dry lower levels as some slight warm air advection comes in to play.
We will expect a few more clouds on Saturday as compared to Friday,
but there will still be some sun. Expect below normal temperatures
with highs near 80.

Sunday and Monday...

Sunday and Monday will be the next best chance for showers and
thunderstorms across Central Indiana. Within the mainly zonal flow
aloft, a moderate short wave will pass across Indiana. An associated
warm front will approach central Indiana early Sunday morning,
followed by an area of surface low pressure and associated cold
front passing across Indiana on Monday. Ample moisture appears in
place as this forcing passes. Thus continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be needed.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Mainly dry weather will be expected through this period. The mainly
zonal flow will remain in place aloft and little in the way of
forcing dynamics are suggested to pass until Thursday. Surface high
pressure will be lingering across the area on Tuesday through
Thursday, with mainly westerly flow in place. Thus only some low
pops will be included for now on Thursday as the subtle forcing
aloft is suggested at the moment. The mainly zonal flow aloft with
will keep hot and humid air at bay, resulting in slight below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Impacts:

- WNW winds gusts near 20 kts Friday afternoon.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Scattered to broken VFR deck between 040-060 will decrease this
evening. Winds will be light out of the W-NW overnight thanks to
weak pressure gradient and nocturnal effects.

Tomorrow will start out with mostly clear skies, gradually turning
into a BKN deck of clouds by afternoon as daytime heating develops
and sufficient moisture in the lower altitudes remain. Cloud
ceilings are expected to be similar to today, around 050. As deeper
mixing develops (aiding in the cloud development) WNW winds will
increase with some gusts between 18-20 kts developing by early
afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma