247
FXUS63 KIND 181403
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1003 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances on Thursday

- Above normal temperatures return late week into the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Minor updates were made to the forecast this morning - dry air
largely won out overnight and prevented much in the way of flakes
making the ground. There is one last area of slightly more
substantial radar returns passing through the area this morning,
that will cause some brief visibility reductions and maybe a very
light dusting, but impacts should be limited at most, and warming
temperatures this afternoon will take care of any remaining trace of
snow on the ground.

Cloud cover will begin to give way to more sun from the west this
afternoon, though this gradual process will result in a decent
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest across the area -
from highs around 40 to around the mid 50s, with Indy metro and
points northwest/southeast reaching largely the mid to upper 40s by
late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Early this morning, some forcing ahead of an upper impulse was
producing patchy light snow in central Illinois. Radar was showing
echoes across central Indiana, but thanks to very dry air in the
lower levels, little if any was reaching the ground. Meanwhile,
additional forcing was producing snow in southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois.

The first area of snow will continue to have a hard time reaching
the ground as it moves through in the predawn hours as the dry low
levels persist. Will have some chance category or lower PoPs west
and southwest to account for this.

The other area of snow will continue to work south and east into
central Indiana predawn into the morning hours of today. Some
weakening has been noted on regional radar, but surface observations
still show decent coverage. Will keep some likely PoPs across the
far northern forecast area toward 12Z.

Will go with mainly chance PoPs elsewhere and for most areas after
12Z. There remains uncertainty on whether this band will weaken and
where exactly the lower visibilities will set up. Will continue to
monitor and adjust PoPs as needed. At any rate, any snow
accumulations will remain less than an inch.

Warmer air will move into central Indiana this afternoon and clouds
will decrease some, especially west as forcing/moisture from the
earlier system exits. This will allow for highs in the lower 50s
southwest, with lows cooling to the lower 40s northeast.

Clouds will increase again tonight ahead of the next system. This
combined with light southerly winds will help keep temperatures
milder, with lows in the 30s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

An upper high will dominate the western CONUS early in the period,
with central Indiana on the periphery. An upper wave riding the
ridge will bring a chance for precipitation on Thursday. With best
forcing east, will keep PoPs in chance category or lower. Thermal
profiles indicate that rain will be the precipitation type.

The upper ridge will nudge into the area on Friday, providing warmer
temperatures with highs around 70 most areas.

Uncertainty then ramps up starting Saturday. Deterministic GFS (and
hinted at by the end of the NAM) shows a cold front making it
through the area Friday night, allowing much cooler temperatures for
Saturday than previously thought. The ECMWF holds fast with the
warmer temperatures. With upper heights not changing much, not sure
that the cold air will move that far south. For now, will keep with
warm temperatures for Saturday with highs still around 70.

Sunday still looks warm ahead of the next system, but as the upper
ridge gets flattened, cooler air will return to central Indiana
early next week. Some uncertainty remains on how cool, but below
normal temperatures are expected Monday, with some recovery into
mid-week next week.

Some weak forcing could bring low chances for precipitation at times
Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Impacts:

- Period of -SN, with at times high-MVFR...ending west-east 14Z-16Z
- Winds veering slightly from SSE to S by 14Z...and mainly SSW by 18Z
- Winds sustained up to 10-15KT early this afternoon...gusting up to
  18-23KT

Discussion:

Low-VFR/less frequent high-MVFR conditions will prevail into this
morning, with lower visibility leading deterioration in brief bursts
of steadier snow through 14Z-15Z.  Decks climbing through VFR after
15Z ahead of clouds scattering out from west to east this afternoon.
Winds diminishing late today, falling below 7KT around 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM