359
FXUS63 KIND 021047
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
647 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and
  storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall
  and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Wind Advisory for this afternoon with southerly winds gusting up
  to 45 to 50 MPH

- Strong to severe storms possible late today into tonight, as well
  as Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday; all hazards possible,
  though damaging winds will be the primary concern

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows
  in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or
  freeze conditions possible

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The active pattern will continue into the first part of the weekend
with at least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, along
with windy conditions today and perhaps Saturday as well.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are ongoing this
morning across central and northern portions of the area atop a
strongly sloped frontal zone. This activity will push off to the
northeast as the front quickly returns back northward later this
morning as a warm front in response to fairly potent low pressure
moving out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes. As a result,
much of the day will be dry across central Indiana, with
significantly warmer temperatures and windy conditions as a well-
mixed PBL in the open warm sector pushes back into the area. Strong
low level flow approaching or exceeding 50KT near the top of the
mixed layer will likely easily produce gusts of 45-50 MPH at times
across the majority of the area, with a few higher gusts not out of
the question, particularly in areas that manage to break out into
some sun and see even deeper mixing. Have expanded the wind advisory
to all of central Indiana as a result.

A subtle capping inversion centered around 800 mb should keep a lid
on convective activity over the area much of the day, with renewed
convective development occurring to our west aided by large scale
ascent and a prefrontal instability axis, likely growing upscale
into one or more line segments and moving into the area late today
into tonight. Plentiful deep layer shear and low level shear will
promote at least some risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado or two despite the relatively weak and decreasing
instability with time.

The cold front will likely not make it fully into the area before
pushing back northward in response to development and northeastward
movement of another low pressure system tonight into Friday, keeping
the area within the warm sector and continuing thunderstorm
potential into the day on Friday. Soundings indicate early day
capping eroding eventually being overcome by diurnal heating, with
moderate instability in a modest shear environment supporting
potential for isolated strong to severe storms Friday afternoon into
evening.

The primary cold front will finally sweep through the area on
Saturday, with deep saturation (PWATs at or above climo max)
promoting a heavy rain threat, and at least an isolated strong to
severe storm threat despite the weak instability given the continued
strong low and deep layer flow fields.

Winds may again gust to around 40-45 MPH ahead of the front on
Saturday as well, depending upon the depth of mixing, and this will
bear monitoring.

Precip chances will finally come to an end for at least a few days
once the front has passed, with an immediate cooldown for the latter
part of the weekend on the order of 20 to 25 degrees, but until
then, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs today
and tomorrow in the mid 70s to low 80s, and Saturday in the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

The aforementioned anomalous precipitable water values along with
the expectation of multiple rounds of additional convection will
keep hydrologic concerns top of mind into the weekend, and even
beyond for the slower responding main stem rivers. Current one hour
flash flood guidance on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour across
the area will likely become lower by tomorrow night into Saturday
when the most widespread substantial precipitation appears likely,
and some small streams have already responded back into action stage
with at least one location approaching flood. The Wabash is likely
to reach minor flood along most if not all of its central and
southern Indiana reach in the coming days, perhaps along with
portions of the lower White and East Fork White given relatively wet
antecedent conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Sunday...

Dry but cooler weather is expected on Sunday. Models show the
forcing dynamics associated with the upper trough and cold front that
impacted Indiana on Saturday will have pushed to the east. This will
allow for the arrival of subsidence and drying on the back side of
the trough through the day on Sunday. As we start the day at the
surface, strong high pressure over the plains will be pushing into
Indiana. Forecast soundings show a very dry column. Thus a mostly
sunny and cooler day will be expected.

Monday...

Models suggest a weak surface trough within the northerly flow to
swing across Indiana through the day. This is associated with a weak
trough within the upper flow. Best moisture with this appears to
remain well northeast of Indiana. Furthermore, lower level moisture
remains unavailable due to the ongoing dry northerly flow. Thus,
more clouds will be expected on Monday as these features pass. There
is low confidence for a stray very light rain shower or sprinkle
through the day due to minimal upper forcing and possible cyclonic
flow aloft. Cool highs in the 50s will continue.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Models suggest strong ridging aloft to build across Central Indiana
on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be within a quick, Pacific
originating flow. Little in the way of forcing appears to pass as the
quick flow aloft protects Indiana from any cold air intrusions.
Within the lower levels, very strong high pressure will pass across
through the Great Lakes, reaching NY State by Wednesday. This will
result in Tuesday being slightly cooler than Wednesday due to
northerly flow on Tuesday, and warmer, southeast to southerly flow
on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to IFR conditions persist through this morning

- Showers and storms possible late today into this evening

- Winds become southerly today sustained at 20-25KT with gusts
  approaching 40KT at times

Discussion:

widespread IFR conditions are in place north of the currently
stationary boundary to the south. This boundary is lifting
northward, with winds gradually shifting to the south and ceilings
gradually improving as it does so. VFR conditions should return to
all sites by 17-19Z.

Winds will strengthen significantly as we reemerge into the warm
sector with deep PBL mixing and strong flow just off the surface.
Sustained winds will reach as high as 20-25KT with gusts as high as
35-40KT at times. An isolated higher gust is possible. Gusts will
remain, though drop back into the mid 20KT range this evening.

Showers and storm chances will ramp back up late today. Will carry
showers and VCTS where chances are highest this evening, and PROB30
elsewhere.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield