249
FXUS63 KIND 230247
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1047 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong storms are possible late this afternoon/evening,
  with gusty winds and hail across far N-NE portions of central
  Indiana.

- Rain and thunder chances Friday and Friday night again next and
  again late Monday. Threat for severe weather is greatest on
  Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures through early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Forecast is in pretty good shape with only minor adjustments made.
First to temperatures as current obs show temps cooling off slightly
faster than previously forecasted but overnight lows still remain in
the mid to upper 50s. Then was to refine PoPs. A few lingering
showers remain in and just north of our far northern counties. These
will continue to weaken and push eastward today, and have PoPs
ending around midnight.

A boundary will remain along our northern forecast border tonight
but will mainly be noticed by higher dew points to the north and
lower dew points for much of our area to the south, plus subtle
shifts in wind. This boundary is expected to again push northward by
tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Rest of this afternoon/early evening....

See the most recent mesoscale update for current thinking on storm
evolution and severe weather potential impacts to far north-NE
portions of central Indiana late this afternoon.

Tonight...

With loss of daytime heating and passage of the weak shortwave
trough, thunderstorm chances are expected to end by 04Z. Mostly
clear skies and light winds will be the rule as high pressure
centered over the SE states becomes reinforced with the ridge axis
from the surface up through mid levels extending across the region.

Thursday...

A shortwave trough will eject out of the Rockies into the Plains on
Thursday. As surface pressure falls increase over the MS/MO valleys,
increasing gradient winds will result with S-SW wind gusts from 20-
25 mph during the afternoon with temperatures once again well above
normal from 75-80F. Convection will rapidly develop and intensify
over the Plains during the afternoon along an associated cold front.

Thursday Night...

Convection will move quickly east into the MS valley supported by a
40-50 kt low level jet and ample instability (MUCAPE 1000-2000 j/kg).
There is varying degrees of placement on the leading edge of
precip/TS potential into western portions of central Indiana towards
12Z Friday. Have opted with a slightly slow solution generally
slower than the HREF blend and more in line with the operational
Euro model with only slight chance late.

Friday/Friday Night...

Cloud cover and potential for remnant showers/TS and consequent
marginal mid level lapse rates will likely be the mitigating factors
for a more substantial severe threat. However, with a frontal
boundary crossing central Indiana during the early-mid afternoon,
and moderately strong kinematic fields, greater destabilization may
favor a slight risk for severe weather in later SPC outlooks. In the
wake of the system Friday, there is some indication of an MCV coming
out of KS/MO to graze southern central Indiana Friday night. Have
upped PoPs across southern portion of the forecast area to account
for this potential.

Saturday through Sunday...

Fairly quiet weather will be the rule during the period as high
pressure build southeast behind a cold front and intensifies over
the Great Lakes. Another strong mid-upper level shortwave will move
into the western CONUS during the period as a prelude to more active
weather for central Indiana.

Monday...

A vigorous and fast moving shortwave trough will move out of the
Plains and into the MS valley during the day. Fairly strong
kinematic fields combined with sufficient instability favor the
threat for all hazards severe weather along a cold front and
potentially pre-frontal confluence bands as the primary surface low
pressure moves into the western Great Lakes. Present indications are
this activity will push towards central Indiana towards early
evening, but this far out timing remains uncertain. SPC has a Day 5
slight risk out just south of the forecast area. Expectation is for
this risk to eventually be shifted to include much if not all of
central Indiana in later outlooks.

Tuesday/Wednesday...

Quieter weather returns Tuesday with temps cooling to near normal
and drier conditions in the wake of Monday/Monday night convective
event. Another shortwave is progged to move out of the desert SW
into the central and southern plains with some potential for
showers/TS for central Indiana late Wednesday. Timing and coverage
is even more uncertain for this event, so for now low end PoPs seem
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 754 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts around 20kt Thurs afternoon

Discussion:

Fairly tranquil conditions at present across the TAF sites with VFR
conditions and winds generally out of the SW from 8-12 kts.

Overnight, winds will be generally 4-6 kts from the SW with mostly
clear skies. Thursday will see VFR conditions with gradually
increasing SW winds during the afternoon with a few gusts around 20
kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...Crosbie