571
FXUS63 KIND 141901
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
201 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool conditions through the weekend

- Dry weather expected over the next 7 days

- Progressively warmer next week with highs into the 60s by
  Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a large area of high pressure
in place through the Mississippi Valley. Cool northwest flow was in
place across Indiana. GOES19 shows some lake cloud steaming from
Lake MI, pushing south across north central Indiana. Aloft, a highly
amplified pattern was in place. A sharp omega block was in place
with ridging over the plains states, low pressure over the northeast
and a deep trough in place over the Pacific northwest extending into
the intermountain west. Dew points across the area were in the lower
30s.

Tonight...

The strong ridging aloft to the west will nudge slightly eastward.
Indiana will continue to remain under the influence of lee side
subsidence and NW flow aloft through the overnight hours. Meanwhile
at the surface, the strong high pressure system will also nudge
east, arriving over IL and WI. This will keep light NW flow across
Indiana, but should result in clearing skies across our area as the
lake clouds drifts farther to the northeast and heating is lost. Dew
point depressions overnight may fall to less than 2F. This with
clearing skies and light winds will be a good set-up for radiational
cooling and fog. Look for overnight lows around 30.

Sunday and Monday...

The strong ridging aloft will build east across Indiana on Sunday
and Monday. Furthermore, a secondary ridge aloft is suggested to
develop within the pattern over the Central Plains on Monday,
reinforcing subsidence across the area. Meanwhile within the lower
levels, the strong surface high pressure system to west will build
eastward, settling over Indiana and Ohio on Monday. This will bring
more dry and cool weather to our area for this time. Forecast
soundings on Sunday suggest that convective temperatures may be
reached producing some flat topped stratocu, but more sunshine is
indicated on Monday with a dry column in play. Thus a partly cloudy
Sunday and mostly sunny Monday will be in store. Slight warm air
advection is indicated for Sunday and Monday. Thus highs around 50
on Sunday should warm to the lower 50s for Monday. These values are
at or below seasonal normals.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Surface high pressure positioned over the central CONUS will slowly
settle into the region through the week. Deep subsidence and
increasing heights from the subsequent surface high will keep skies
mostly clear through late Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, a
subtle shortwave trough will start to take shape over the Great
Plains. A subsequent surface low pressure system is expected to form
over the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a cold front extending
south towards the MO River Valley. While the subsequent surface low
will remain well north of central Indiana, subtle isentropic ascent
will promote the development of SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds
through the rest of the forecast period. While rain chances look to
hold off until Sunday morning at the earliest, models indicate a 10-
20% chance an isolated shower or two occurring Thursday through
Saturday morning. However, confidence is too low at this time to
include any mention in the forecast.

10-20 kts of southerly WAA from the subsequent surface high pressure
will usher in the transition from more seasonable high temperatures
in the low to mid 50s Tuesday with low`s in the mid 30s to
temperatures 10-15 degrees above average by the end of the week.
High`s by then will approach the mid to upper 60s with lows in the
upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Impacts:

- VFR most of the TAF period.
- Possible MVFR conditions 09-13z due to fog.

Discussion:

Northwest flow off of Lake Michigan continue to favor
areas of stratocu that will continue to drift southeast today.
Ceilings will reside at VFR levels through the afternoon before clouds
diminish tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible Sunday morning due
to the potential of patchy light fog, mainly for KHUF, KBMG, and KLAF.

Northwest winds up to 15kts are expected for the rest of the afternoon
with winds diminishing to less than 5kts tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma/SM
DISCUSSION...Puma/SM