019
FXUS63 KIND 291437
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1037 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return today, highs return to the 70s on
  Monday with low 80s expected by Tuesday.

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph expected on Monday and up to 40 mph on
  Tuesday.

- A wet pattern emerges for Tuesday Night through Friday, with
  strong to severe storms possible on Tuesday afternoon and night.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Forecast is in good shape and only minimal adjustments were needed.
Southerly flow is solidly in place, warming temps to the 60s today.
Satellite shows clouds pushing eastward and mostly clear skies are
expected through the afternoon before additional clouds move in.
Main impact today will be breezy winds this afternoon with gusts up
to 25 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Today through Monday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Monday night as
surface high pressure to the E/SE remains the dominant feature. The
surface high will continue shifting east with time. This along with
a tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and a
developing low pressure system near the Plains will support
strengthening S/SW flow. Look for temperatures to warm up into the
upper 50s to mid 60s by this afternoon as a result.

Deep mixing today may drop minimum RH values to around 25-30% and
promote gusts up to 25 mph at times. Recent rainfall should limit
fire weather potential though. Stronger winds are expected the next
few days as the developing low pressure system begins to approach.
Wind gusts between 30-35 mph are likely Monday with gusts up to 40
mph expected on Tuesday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

The quiet pattern comes to an end by late Tuesday once the
aforementioned system moves into the region. Ensemble guidance still
shows disagreement regarding the track and evolution of this system
leading to uncertainty. Models do generally depict a developing
surface low moving from the High Plains to the Great Lakes Region.
Meanwhile, moisture advection and daytime heating ahead of an
associate cold front will promote destabilization. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop roughly from central IL northeastward to
northern Indiana along the approaching cold front around the late
afternoon hours. These storms should then eventually move into
central Indiana as the front pushes southeastward. Guidance depicts
modest to moderate instability and sufficient effective shear for
organized convection.

One caveat though is that instability will likely diminish in
typical diurnal fashion given weak low-level theta-e advection. If
storms move into the forecast area well after sunset then the
overall severe threat may be limited by decreasing instability.
Details should become clearer once model guidance becomes better
aligned. Some guidance is hinting at a complex of storms developing
Monday night into Tuesday morning across Iowa and Western Illinois
which then propagates eastward. This will need to be monitored as
outflow from any overnight convection could help initiate
thunderstorms sooner than models currently depict. The frontal
boundary stalling near the area by Tuesday night may lead to
localized flooding in any areas that see repeated rounds of
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

An active weather pattern will be in place for Wednesday through
Saturday.

On Wednesday, a zonal flow with slight hints of a SW flow will be in
place across Central Indiana. Models suggest that a cold front will
be draped across Indiana as Wednesday begins. Models differ on the
extent to how far south the cold front will progress, but it is
clear it will remain in the vicinity of Central Indiana on Wednesday
into Thursday.

Further support for showers and storms look to arrive
on Thursday as models suggest an upper trough passing through the
Ohio Valley.  The lower levels also remain favorable for precip with
warm and humid gulf flow streaming into the Ohio Valley to interact
with a trough and upper support.

This pattern remains in place into Friday, although there does
appear to be some differences in the models resulting in lower
confidence for rain on Friday. The main difference is the
positioning of an upper ridge which could either protect Central
Indiana from additional rain on Friday and Friday night, or result
in more rain chances. Low confidence in either of these outcomes
will result in continued chance for rain on Friday and Friday Night.

By Saturday, yet another upper wave will be pushing out of the
plains toward Indiana along with an associated cold front. Here
again, Indiana looks to be within the warm sector in a prime
position for for more rounds of thunderstorm.

Temperatures through the week look to be above normal as several
days, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, look to be spent within mainly
the warm sector or the warm side of the lingering frontal boundary
dominated by mainly southerly flow. Friday and Saturday look to be
the warmest days with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 18-23 kt this afternoon

- Non-Convective LLWS expected tonight

- Winds gusts between 25-32 kt on Monday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with surface high
pressure in place. Mid-high level clouds will continue to push
through the region during the period. S/SE winds around 04-08 kt are
expected through daybreak before turning southwesterly later today
and increasing in magnitude.

Wind gusts between 18-23 kt are likely this afternoon. Non-
convective LLWS is expected tonight before then diminishing Monday
morning. Look for stronger wind gusts on Monday between 25-32 kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Melo