435
FXUS63 KIND 021048
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
548 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for light snowfall this morning with a dusting to few
  tenths of an inch possible

- Patchy freezing drizzle may produce a thin layer of ice on
  surfaces this morning...mainly over the northern Wabash Valley

- Another round of accumulating light snow is expected late tonight
  into Tuesday, primarily across the southern half of the area, with
  1-2 inches the current expectation

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Radar echoes continue to increase early this morning across western
Indiana as a weak wave aloft moves into the area. However other than
a few locations with flurries...precipitation is not reaching the
ground over most of the western forecast area. One exception is a
small area of light snow that briefly dropped visibilities to 2
miles in Greencastle shortly after 07Z. Temperatures early this
morning ranged from the mid teens to mid 20s which feels balmy
compared to overnight readings since last weekend.

The deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country the
last couple days will move off the east coast before reorganizing in
a weaker state by midweek in response to an upper low diving across
eastern Canada. On the back side of the modifying trough...waves
aloft continue to track across the region with two set to impact
central Indiana over the next 36 hours with opportunities for light
snow. The first one will move across the region this morning
followed by a stronger system late tonight into Tuesday.

The upper wave moving through the region this morning is weak and
displaced from a surface trough trailing the upper forcing. A narrow
axis of mainly light snow and flurries is moving across the western
counties currently with a slightly broader axis of light snow across
northwest Indiana set to pivot across the northeast half of the
forecast area over the next several hours. As mentioned above the
overall system is weak and disorganized but a dusting to few tenths
of an inch is certainly a possibility through just after daybreak
where heavier returns briefly occur...most likely over areas
northeast of the Indy metro. Of additional concern is an area of
light freezing drizzle moving southeast behind the light snow across
the northern half of Illinois. The southern flank of the freezing
drizzle may cause a very thin layer of icing across the northern
Wabash Valley through mid morning and will need to be monitored.
Scattered light snow showers and flurries may linger through midday
until the surface trough can pass the region.

Weak surface ridging will briefly expand into the region for the
afternoon and evening but model soundings show moisture remaining
trapped beneath a low level inversion with stratus lingering all
day. Drier air aloft may be able to work down into the boundary
layer for a short time this evening to break up the stratus in spots
but it will remain cloudy with upper level moisture advecting into
the region ahead of the next upper level wave. Any scattering of the
lower deck will thicken back up late tonight as increasingly
deeper boundary layer moisture arrives.

A surface low will develop over the Ozarks late tonight and shift
east into the lower Ohio Valley by midday Tuesday. The
aforementioned upper level wave will be initially out of phase with
the surface low but as they become better aligned near daybreak
Tuesday...light snow will become more prevalent across the forecast
area. An axis of steadier snowfall is likely to align just north of
the developing baroclinic zone and at this point...that appears to
set up across the southern half of the forecast area. Impacts from
the light snow will be greatest after 12Z Tuesday...but confidence
has increased in snow increasing in coverage in the predawn hours.
More on this system in the Long Term section below.

Temps...the warmest highs since January 22 are expected today with
highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The cloud cover will keep
temperatures up tonight with lows ranging from the upper teens north
to mid 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Expectations for the long term period remain roughly consistent as
in recent days - for the most part, continued below normal
temperatures, and at least a couple opportunities for light
accumulating snowfall.

Deterministic models have continued to stick with a weaker and
further south depiction of the mid week system, though some
potential for light accumulations will still exist, primarily during
the day on Tuesday across the southern half or so of the area in a
deformation zone north of the surface low. This could produce a
narrow but fairly intense band of snow, which obviously may present
impact concerns. High-resolution models, however, could hardly be
more different. For the time being, given consistency in the larger
scale models in recent days, will continue to go with decent PoPs in
the south Tuesday, and potential for a quick 1-2 inches of
accumulation.

Another fairly potent clipper will move through the upper Great
Lakes into the northeast late in the work week, and though guidance
has trended a bit further northeastward with this system, still see
some potential for light accumulating snow, though maybe more over
the northeastern half of the area, with some potential for
additional flurries or lake effect snow showers into the early
portion of the weekend depending upon the flow orientation in the
wake of the system.

The continued intrusion of Arctic airmasses into the region will
keep temperatures below normal, sometimes well below normal,
throughout the period. If the freezing mark is going to make it into
Indy metro, it may be on Friday ahead of the aforementioned clipper,
though this will depend significantly upon timing of said system,
and there is a perhaps substantial chance that guidance temperatures
are too warm here. It is entirely possible Indianapolis does not
reach the freezing mark until the week of the 9th.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 548 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Impacts:

- Light snow and flurries end this morning
- MVFR ceilings developing for most if not all of the day
- Light snow will develop across the region predawn Tuesday with
  lower ceilings returning

Discussion:

Light snow and flurries will shift east of the terminals later this
morning as MVFR ceilings settle over the region. The lower stratus
will linger throughout the day as moisture remains trapped beneath
an inversion. Stratus may mix out for a few hours this evening into
the early overnight before reestablishing early Tuesday ahead of the
next upper level wave. Light snow will develop and increase in
coverage during the predawn hours then continuing through the first
half of Tuesday.

South-southwest winds this morning will veer to westerly this
afternoon with the passage of an associated surface trough. Winds
may increase to 10-15kts for a few hours before becoming light and
variable tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan