469
FXUS63 KIND 300540
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
140 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return, highs in the 60s today and 70s
  tomorrow, with low 80s expected by Tuesday

- Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph Monday...and up to 30-40 mph Tuesday

- A wet pattern late Tuesday through Saturday, with strong t-storms
  possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Only minor adjustment needed to the forecast was to add
some low POPs to the southeastern counties towards daybreak tomorrow
with some weak isentropic lift expected within the MVFR stratus
deck. Confidence isn`t very high with the weak nature of the lift,
but do think the threat is high enough to warrant an isolated shower
mention.

Dew points have gradually begun to recover with the loss of deeper
mixing and continued southerly flow. The LLJ is expected to continue
to ramp up tonight with saturation associated with the aforementioned
isentropic lift helping to bring thicker low level clouds towards
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The short term will see zonal flow aloft with high pressure set up
over the Gulf. At the surface, a high will start off over the mid
atlantic coast and push NE while a surface low ejects out of the
central to northern plains to the Great Lakes then towards NE
Canada. This will place central Indiana under SW flow with moisture
and warm air advection through the period as well as stronger winds
aloft that are expected to mix down to the surface during the
afternoon hours. Gusts up to around 25 mph expected this afternoon
and around 30 to 35 mph for tomorrow afternoon.

Highs today will be in the 60s and increase tomorrow to the 70s
thanks to the WAA.

Can`t rule out some isolated sprinkles at times tonight and again
tomorrow afternoon across the east from just enough lift and
moisture with the low passing to the north, but low confidence on
this. Better precipitation chances arrive Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The period will start as increasing south-southwesterly flow brings
gusts nearing 20-30 mph by dawn Tuesday.  Only a small diurnal drop
following anomalous warmth Monday will set the table for a record
high minimum temperature Tuesday, with lows  at least 5 degrees
above normal highs.  Despite flow turning windy Tuesday with gusts
up to 30-40 mph, bringing moderate humidity by late morning...mainly
rain-free conditions will prevail until better forcing arrives later
in the day.

The remainder of the long term will turn the page into April by
maintaining a damp and at times rainy pattern into next weekend.
Three distinct periods of more organized rain are expected around
the Tuesday night-Wednesday...Thursday-Thursday night...and weekend
timeframes.  Yet another zonally-elongated and slowly-passing cold
frontal zone during the mid-week will hold a precipitation axis over
the CWA, with at least a few, possibly strong t-storms.

Broader deep Gulf moisture will be established by the time the next
short wave crosses the central CONUS on Thursday, placing open wave
surface low pressure near the Middle Mississippi Valley up through
the northern Midwest...which will provide enough gradient to hold
above normal dewpoints while boosting precipitable water values to
1.2-1.5 inches as the Gulf fetch is focused into much of Indiana.
Perhaps a stronger upper wave late in the week will track farther
north, and likely drag a stronger cold front through the
region...which would promote a quicker, final period of rain, with
potential t-storms.  While drizzle and a few widely scattered rain
showers are expected otherwise, these three main periods of numerous
to widespread showers will bring the solid majority of the week`s
rainfall.

Long term precipitation totals will most likely reach 1-3 inches
through Thursday night and possibly 2-4 inches by the end of the
long term when the pattern will likely become less rainy.  At least
isolated minor flooding is possible by the late week, although water
will pass through soils less than from early March`s heavy rains as
the growing season begins.

Temperatures to be consistently well above normal, although a
seasonably cool Wednesday is most likely along the Upper Wabash
Valley behind the cold front`s initial progress through much of the
region.  Lows will often be near normal highs.  The normal max/min
at Indianapolis through the long term is 59/38.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Impacts:

-LLWS 05Z to 14Z
-Low chance for MVFR cigs after 12Z today
-South-southwesterly wind gusts between 25-30 kt during the day today

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through daybreak before low stratus
moves across much of central Indiana during the day. Confidence in
MVFR ceilings has decreased, but MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out
after 12-14Z today. Ahead of the stratus, non-convective LLWS is
possible through about 13-14Z as the LLJ ramps up and surface
winds remain at or less than 10kts. Surface gusts between 25-30 kt
are expected out of the south to southwest during the day.
Slightly weaker gusts may persist sporadically tonight at some
sites.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Melo