268
FXUS63 KIND 110456
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday.
  Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A
  few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

On the heels of a rare unseasonably mild yet nearly calm November
day, quiet conditions will continue overnight...albeit amid
increasing chances of at least patchy fog that will likely include
visibility locally below 1 mile.  Synoptically, central Indiana will
continue to rest within a doldrum between very weak surface ridge
along Gulf coast and next surface low pressure crossing Iowa to Quad
Cities area by 12Z.  Approaching wave will bring increasing high
cloud across northern tier after 300 AM EST...and down to I-70 by
pre-dawn. Any modest surface gradient on the periphery of this
next small system arriving by dawn...will not be able to boost
winds above 2-4KT.

Therefore, expect patchy fog to bring noteworthy visibility
reductions towards pre-dawn hours, especially across central and
southern zones. While impacts would be greatest towards dawn, fog
formation is certainly possible by the early overnight...
especially given relative humidity observations as of 1000 PM EST
near 100 percent from Terre Haute to Danville to Mount Comfort and
New Castle. Seasonable dewpoints will guide further drop in
temperatures, with lows by daybreak ranging from upper 30s north
of I-70 corridor to low 40s over many southern counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

A subtle surface trough is progressing through Indiana this
afternoon and a wind shift has occurred around 1pm. Winds were light
out of the southwest and are now out of the north-northwest from
Indianapolis northward. This weak boundary is expected to stall
across central Indiana this evening.

Winds should become light and variable overnight as the boundary
layer stabilizes. With clear skies in place we are expecting
excellent radiational cooling potential overnight. We have therefore
went a bit below guidance for low temperatures with weight towards
MOS and high-res short term guidance. This leads to forecast low
temperatures in the upper 30s over rural areas and low 40s in
urbanized locations.

With subtle moisture convergence in place along the weak boundary,
patchy fog is possible overnight given the ideal radiative cooling
potnetial. Fog may be locally dense along the axis of the boundary
once it stalls. Areas from Terre Haute to Indianapolis eastward have
the best chance of locally dense fog. Elsewhere, fog is possible but
to a lesser degree.

Wednesday...

Satellite shows a potent vort max over the Dakotas as of this
writing (1pm Tuesday). This system is diving southeastward embedded
within broad west-northwesterly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance shows
the vort max amplifying with time as it moves towards Indiana. This
amplification will help induce surface cyclogenesis tonight. By
Wednesday morning, all guidance shows a closed surface low over
northern Illinois roughly around 1007mb. Surface winds around the
developing low increase throughout the day Wednesday, with a cold
front taking shape by mid day.

A narrow band of higher moisture is modeled to lift northward along
and ahead of the cold front. With cooling temperatures aloft, lapse
rates are expected to increase allowing for modest MLCAPE around 500
J/Kg. Shear may be quite robust, between 35-45kt effective,
especially across southern Indiana. Shear vectors are easterly and
perpendicular to the cold front. As such, cellular/discrete
convection is anticipated with eventual upscale growth.

As for potential hazards, it appears the isolated strong/damaging
wind gust are the most probable. With steep lapse rates it wouldn`t
take much to mix some momentum aloft to the surface. However, the
low-level jet appears quite weak so the threat will be limited.
There is enough low-level shear and turning with height to allow for
a very isolated tornado threat. This is dependent on how much
moisture lifts northward and how strong the low-level jet gets.
Right now, this threat appears to be a very low chance...but worth
mentioning. Some small hail is possible but potential updraft
strength does not appear enough for severe hail.

Wednesday Night into Friday...

Strong northerly flow behind Wednesday`s departing system will lead
to wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Cold air advection should
limit temperature recovery during the day Thursday. Lows in the
lower 40s may only rebound into the upper 40s despite some sunshine
peeking through. Additionally, precipitation is likely to develop by
mid day Thursday as the core of the upper-level vort max arrives.
Steeping lapse rates and fetch off of Lake Michigan should lead to
showery/convective precipitation. Temperatures aloft may be cold
enough for graupel or snow to mix in at times late Thursday into
Thursday night. Precipitation diminishes for most of the region by
sunset with only a narrow band lingering immediately downwind of
Lake Michigan. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning look to be in
the low to mid 30s. Highs friday top out in the high 40s mostly
cloudy skies. Clouds should begin clearing during the afternoon but
may persist longer downwind of the lake.

Saturday through Early Next Week...

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
well into next week. Widespread near to below freezing temperatures
are expected on Saturday and Sunday mornings under clear skies and
light winds. Other than the potential for lingering scattered
diurnal cu on Saturday as the upper low moves away... expect a
return to mainly clear skies that will likely extend into the middle
of next week as strong high pressure settles over the region. The
onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with
highs rising from the mid and upper 40s on Saturday back into the
mid and upper 50s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog developing through daybreak Wednesday with lowest
  visibilities anticipated at KHUF

- Scattered showers with embedded storms impacting the terminals
  late day Wednesday into the evening

- Gusty N/NW winds with MVFR ceilings developing Wednesday night

Discussion:

Thin cirrus beginning to overspread the area from the northwest late
this evening with patchy fog as largely calm winds are present in
the near surface layer. Expect further expansion of fog overnight
especially focused in the vicinity of a weak remnant boundary
sitting just south of Interstate 70. KHUF likely to be impacted the
greatest through daybreak with LIFR and lower visibilities with
periodic impacts at the other terminals largely after 09Z.

Fog will gradually dissipate during the first half of the morning
Wednesday as mid and high level clouds slowly increase in advance of
a surface low pressure approaching from the west. As this feature
moves into the region during the second half of the afternoon...
convective coverage will increase along the trailing cold front as
it sweeps across central Indiana during the early evening. May see
embedded thunder with briefly stronger wind gusts accompany the
convection with the bulk of the activity east of the terminals by 00
to 01Z. Winds will veer to N/NW and become gusty immediately behind
the front during the evening. MVFR stratocu will gradually fill in
as well for Wednesday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Eckhoff