061
FXUS63 KIND 081839
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid through at least mid week next week

- Daily chances for showers and storms

- At least an isolated severe threat at times Sunday into late
  Wednesday, with damaging winds and localized flooding the
  primary threats

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

A weakening cold front will continue to sink into the area into
tonight. Temperatures in the middle 80s to around 90 combined with
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s have aided in creating MLCAPE
values between 2000-3000 J/kg. However, shear is weak. Although the
front doesn`t have any upper support, it might be able to tap into
the instability and generate some isolated convection.

Will continue with mainly slight chance PoPs (isolated wording) into
early this evening as the front stalls out in the area. With the
lack of shear, severe storms are not expected.

Overnight, light winds and mostly clear skies will allow some fog to
develop across the area. Widespread dense fog looks unlikely, but
favored areas may see brief dense fog.

Slightly cooler air behind the front will allow the far northeast
forecast area to get low temperatures in the lower 60s, but most
areas will be in the mid 60s to around 70.

Sunday and Sunday night...

Fog will mix out early Sunday morning. Otherwise, Sunday morning
will be quiet. Sunday afternoon, remnant thunderstorms or new
thunderstorms created from outflow from remnant thunderstorms to the
west of the area may move in/develop. Best forcing will be north of
the area, so kept PoPs no higher than the chance category and near/
north of I-70. Confidence is low in coverage not only because the
best forcing will be north of the area, but also whether outflow
from the storms may spark additional storms to the south.

Sunday night, more convection will develop northwest of central
Indiana on the nose of an 850mb jet and with some upper energy.
These storms will move southeast and may get into the northern
forecast area. Will have some low PoPs there. Will have to watch and
see if the storms can build farther south than expected.

Shear will be better on Sunday, so some isolated severe storms are
possible, mainly north.

Sunday will be hot and humid, with heat indices approaching 100
degrees across the south.

Monday onward...

An upper level high/ridge will remain to the west and south of
central Indiana through much of the period. Energy riding around the
high will bring forcing to the area at times. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a front will meander in the vicinity.

For much of the week, ample moisture will be in place. Surface
dewpoints will be in the 70s. Forcing from upper energy and the
surface front will produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms at times into next weekend.

Strong instability should be able to build at times into mid-week
next week, and shear will increase at times. These will keep the
threat for severe weather around at times into mid-week next week.
The primary severe threat looks to be damaging winds. The plentiful
moisture content of the atmosphere will also keep heavy rain and
localized flooding a threat.

However, uncertainty on the timing and strength of the upper energy
moving around the upper high leads to uncertainty on timing and
coverage of severe storms. For now, the threat looks to gradually
shift south across the area into mid-week next week as the upper
ridge gets pushed farther south.

Late week next week into next weekend, the threat for convection
will continue, but with some milder air sneaking into the area,
instability will be lower, leading to a lower severe threat.

Looking at temperatures, the proximity of the upper high will lead
to hot conditions early next week, with highs around 90. Lows will
only be in the 70s. With the dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will
be around 100 degrees. Heat Risk may reach the Moderate category for
parts of the area on Monday and Tuesday. Of course, the
aforementioned thunderstorms could easily impact how warm it gets,
adding to the uncertainty. Will have to watch for the potential for
a Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday, mainly south where the warmer
temperatures and lower chances for rain will be.

Temperatures will moderate into the end of next week, with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s expected.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR ceilings very early in the period

- MVFR and worse fog possible overnight

- Low chance for showers/storms

Discussion:

Scattered to broken cumulus will continue this afternoon. Brief
ceilings around BKN030 may linger at KLAF very before lifting to
BKN035 or higher.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a weak cold
front stalls in the area, but coverage is expected to be too low to
mention in the TAFs.

Lingering low level moisture and light winds will lead to areas of
fog overnight, with MVFR and worse conditions possible. KIND should
remain VFR. Fog will mix out early Sunday.

A few wind gusts near 20kt may occur this afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50