554
FXUS63 KIND 090204
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
904 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry through midweek with mix of rain and snow chances
  returning late Thursday through the weekend, uncertainty remains

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder
  temperatures expected

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Surface analysis the evening shows strong high pressure in place
over the eastern Great Lakes, with a southeasterly flow of cold and
dry air streaming across Indiana. Weak and poorly defined low
pressure was found over the plains states. GOES19 showed mostly
clear skies across Central Indiana with the exception of the thin
band of mid level clouds that were lingering earlier. This area of
clouds continues its slide eastward. Otherwise only a few high
clouds were found across the region. Dew points remained mainly in
the teens.

Little overall change in the forecast and in the weather is expected
overnight. Warm air advection is expected to continue overnight
aloft, but this will be countered by mostly clear skies and light
winds. Thus the ongoing forecast of mostly clear skies and lows
mainly in the teens seem on the mark. By 12Z, the surface high will
have moved farther northeast as low pressure strengthens in the
northern plains. This will allow the set-up of southerly flow for
Monday along with warming southerly wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

A long but relatively narrow band of altocumulus stretches from
northern Minnesota southeastward to eastern Kentucky. This band of
cloud cover is associated with weak isentropic lift along the
western edge of a NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone. Satellite imagery
shows gradual narrowing of the band, though it has been fairly
stable through the afternoon so far. Continued thinning is likely
overnight as warm air advection wanes a bit and moves northward.

These clouds have kept temperatures down this afternoon compared to
guidance. The temperature at IND at 2pm is 24 degrees. Outside the
altocu, temperatures are warmer by a few degrees both north and
south. Low temperatures tonight should be less impacted by the
clouds due to gradual dissipation, though a few thick patches should
linger here and there beyond midnight. Combined with a light east-
southeasterly breeze, radiative cooling potential is not expected to
be ideal. However, it should be efficient enough to allow for
pockets of low teens and a few isolated single digit readings. In
areas that maintain cloud cover, lows in the high teens to near 20
are more likely.

Continued clearing is expected on Monday as surface high pressure
builds in. Abundant sunshine combined with the effects of
continued weak warm air advection aloft should bring above-
freezing temperatures for most. Highs in the mid to upper 30s,
with 40s across our far SW, can be expected. NBM guidance tends to
be on the upper-end of the overall guidance suite, sitting at the
75th percentile. We`ve trended a bit lower towards the 50th
percentile, especially across the northeastern parts of our CWA.
Deeper snowpack and a residual colder air mass should keep
temperatures more muted in these parts. Further southwest, deeper
into the warm air advection and with less snowpack, we`ll see the
highest likelihood of being on the warm side of guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Milder temperatures are a welcome expectation during the coming
week. Opportunities for precipitation will return, mainly from late
week onward, though uncertainty remains fairly high at this point.

The synoptic pattern looks to deamplify significantly during the
week, with upper level flow becoming significantly more zonal for
much of the week and even some weak upper level ridging possible at
times. Complex evolution of upper level disturbances and a frontal
zone that may set up to our south later this week, along with
guidance discrepancies that grow significantly with time, lead to a
lower confidence forecast with respect to precipitation, which will
keep chances low to middling at best during the latter portion of
the forecast for the most part, and uncertainty with respect to type.

The early week will be dry under the influence of strong surface
high pressure to our east. A dry cold front will pass through the
area Tuesday, with the tail end stalling to our south at least
temporarily. Convergence along this boundary and a rapidly weakening
upper level disturbance moving into the southern states may promote
the development of precipitation, but trends continue to shift this
southward, to where the majority of guidance leaves central Indiana
dry.

Late week into next weekend, models diverge significantly on their
handling of an incoming upper level trough and resultant
cyclogenesis, as well as associated potential for precipitation. The
latest guidance suite leaves the area under the influence of a
fairly strong surface high, with precip chances held off until the
very end of the period or into mid next week, but it will take the
blend some time to catch up.

Confidence is somewhat greater that temperatures, especially during
the first half of the week will be near to above normal, perhaps
well above normal on Tuesday, with the remainder of the week
settling somewhere in the range of seasonal normals, which, at least
for Indianapolis are in the upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows
currently. That said, blend deterministic guidance is well into the
upper half of its envelope, which appears to be a result of
struggles with the impact of what remains a decently substantial
snowpack and how quickly it may be overcome by what modest warm
advection will take place. Forecast temperature errors in the long
term, if any, will likely be on the warm side.

The warm up early next week along with rain chances will lead to
growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along
rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but most
guidance keeps rainfall amounts relatively light at this time. The
potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice begins
to thaw.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 554 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

GOES19 shoes a thin mid level cloud deck stretching across Central
Indiana. These clouds were exiting central Indiana to the east. To
the west, mainly clear skies were found amid very weak and poorly
organized surface low pressure over the plains. Forecast soundings
tonight and Monday suggest continued very dry lower levels amid weak
and dry southeasterly surface flow.

Thus continued VFR with the occasional passing high to mid level
cloud.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma