655
FXUS63 KIND 181412
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and localized freezing temperatures will occur
  this morning

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for much of eastern and portions of
  central Indiana, Frost Advisory elsewhere

- Dry and quiet weather persists through the next 7 days with
  temperatures rebounding well above normal by midweek

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Temperatures are warming across the area this morning, sitting in
the 40s as of mid-morning with clear skies overhead. Pleasant, sunny
fall weather is expected for the day with highs this afternoon in
the 60s.

With clear skies and calm winds expected again tonight, temperatures
are expected to again drop into the 30s but should not be as cold as
we saw last night. That said, at least patchy frost is probable with
widespread frost possible tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Current observations show low 30s to mid 30s dew points across
the area of which matches up with the ongoing forecast of near to
below freezing temperatures over N/NE portions of central Indiana
and widespread frost over the remainder of the area. The one caveat
to this is E/SE portions of the Freeze Warning where current dew
points of 35-37.

The surface high will push off to the east on throughout the day,
allowing for weak S/SE flow to develop over the Ohio Valley by this
afternoon. This along with mostly clear skies will lead to a slight
rebound in temperatures with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
low 60s. Clear skies and dry surface conditions will continue large
diurnal swings, but there will be enough of an air mass change to
keep temperatures above freezing Sunday night into Monday morning.
Frost potential will remain high over NE portions of the area, but
headlines will depend if any hard freezes occur this morning.

Upper level riding will continue to build throughout the beginning
of next week leading to subsidence and dry conditions. Continued S/SW
flow west of the surface high will maintain the steady warming trend
early next week as well. 850mb temperatures are expected to increase
above 10C by Tuesday. This along with dry adiabatic lapse rates in
the PBL should lead to daily temperature above seasonal normals
Monday through Wednesday. Expect large diurnal swings to continue
with lows in the 40s.

By later in the week, mid to low level northerly flow upstream of a
building ridge will likely curtail daily temperature gains. This
should maintain highs in the low 70s into next weekend. Subsidence
will remain high with continued large diurnal temperature swings
and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Surface high pressure will move off to the east throughout the day.
This will allow for winds to shift towards southerly this morning,
sustained around 5-7kt. Winds will likely become calm again tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Updike