489
FXUS63 KIND 071412
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
912 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend, with lows
  around freezing through Sunday night

- Highs return to the 60s early next week, but cooler
  temperatures will return mid-late next week

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday night into
  Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure over WNY and High
pressure over eastern MO. This was resulting in a cool northwest
flow across central Indiana. GOES19 shows a cloud shield within the
flow, impacting far NE Indiana, but most of Central Indiana was
under sunshine. Some high clouds within the upper flow were
streaming across MO and IL, pushing toward Indiana. The upper
pattern across the United States was dominated by an upper low over
WNY and another low just south of AZ. This was resulting in Pacific
upper flow streaming across much of the country, streaming from the
NW United States, across the Great Plains to the Ohio Valley and the
Carolinas. Dew points this morning across Central Indiana were in
the crisp mid 30s.

Little overall change will be needed with the ongoing forecast. The
surface high to the west is expected to build slowly east across
Indiana through the day. Forecast soundings show a dry column and
convective temperatures will not be reached. Thus we will expect
mostly sunny skies along with some of those previously mentioned
high CI clouds arriving this afternoon. Highs in the lower to
middle 50s will be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 251 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Today through tonight...

Latest satellite observations depict low clouds have mostly cleared
out across central Indiana as northwest flow continues to filter in
drier air. Mostly clear skies along with winds becoming light from a
weakening pressure gradient has allowed for temperatures to quickly
drop well into the 30s already. Expect temperatures to continue
cooling with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Patchy fog
development also appears increasingly likely in climatologically
favored locations as winds have been very light or calm at times.
Any fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak.
Scattered to broken lake enhanced low clouds still remain across
far northeastern counties and will likely persist through at least
the first half of the day. These clouds may limit diurnal
temperature swings to some degree.

Surface high pressure centered near northern Missouri early this
morning will shift eastward through the day today promoting quiet
weather conditions. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight may
once again support patchy fog development in climatologically favored
locations, but winds will increase slightly late overnight leading
to some uncertainty. Look for highs in the low to mid 50s today with
lows dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight.

Sunday through late next next week...

Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue through the middle
of next week as surface high pressure generally remains in control.
Ensemble guidance depicts a few subtle systems pushing weak cold
fronts into the region, but gulf moisture remaining cutoff will keep
these fronts moisture starved, allowing for dry conditions to
persist. A cold front will move through on Sunday bringing breezy
conditions with southwesterly wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph
possible. Winds should then quickly taper off into Sunday night once
the pressure gradient relaxes as the cold front departs. Light winds
combined with mostly clear skies could support additional fog
development Sunday night into Monday morning.

A few shortwaves are expected to move through the region next week
after the cold front on Sunday passes. These upper waves will likely
push through a few more fronts through the area during the week. The
only system that could potentially support precipitation is a
shortwave moving in from the northwest late Wednesday into Thursday.
Weak to modest forcing and very limited moisture return supports a
low (20-30%) chance for rain.

Return flow will warm highs into the 60s early next week. Strong
cold air advection associated with deep troughing and a cold front
is then likely going to cool temperatures significantly mid-late
next week. Highs are only expected to reach the low to mid 50s by
Thursday and highs will struggle to get out of the 40s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 633 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog at LAF diminishing by 13Z today, additional patchy fog
  possible late tonight into Sunday morning at LAF

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period. Patchy
fog is ongoing at LAF and is expected to mix out by 13Z. Additional
patchy fog may develop late tonight into Sunday morning, mainly near
LAF.

Look for NW winds during much of the day. Winds will back to more
westerly and then southwesterly this evening into tonight as surface
high pressure slowly moves east. Winds will pick up some during peak
afternoon heating (17-21Z), but should remain at or below 10 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo