234
FXUS63 KIND 131346
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning in effect across northeast central Indiana from
  5AM Through 8PM today; Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere

- Showers and storms return Sunday, with severe weather possible
  Sunday night.

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

No significant changes needed to the forecast this morning. We
continue to expect gusty winds today with frequent gusts between 45-
55 mph southwest of I-65 and between 50-60 mph northeast of I-65.
Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings are being maintained as they
currently are.

Wind gusts between 40-50 mph have already occurred across the
region, with Indianapolis Int`l Airport measuring 53 mph around 9am.
Winds may diminish briefly this morning before ramping up again, due
to the low-level jet axis passing through and before the tighter
MSLP gradient arrives from the west. Now that clouds have cleared,
increased boundary layer mixing will allow winds to increase
again quickly later this morning.

Temperatures likely rise into the 50s/low 60s early before
decreasing a bit as winds become more westerly. Dew points have been
lower than guidance, which has allowed for some greater mixing this
morning. We`ve lowered dew points to better align with upstream
observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Luck will run out today for those who were hoping for a quiet period
of weather.

Potent low pressure will move through the lower Great Lakes today.
The gradient between this low and high pressure across the southern
USA will create windy conditions for central Indiana.

Aloft, 850mb winds of 50kt to 70kt will move across the area this
morning, diminishing some during the afternoon.

Gusts around 30kt have already been noted upstream with the pressure
gradient, and as mixing occurs later this morning with heating, some
of the stronger winds aloft will bring down higher gusts. Cold
advection, especially in the northeastern forecast area, will help
mix down the stronger winds as well.

Guidance continues to show the potential for 50kt gusts in the
northeastern forecast area, and this makes sense given the above.
Will continue the High Wind Warning northeast with a Wind Advisory
elsewhere. 09Z might be a bit early for reaching criteria, but
moving the time at this point isn`t really worth it.

Winds will diminish as mixing diminishes and the pressure gradient
relaxes, so 00Z still looks like a good time to let the
warning/advisory expire. Winds will continue to diminish through the
evening, with gusts gone by the overnight.

Regarding precipitation, lift may generate some patchy light rain or
sprinkles across the northern forecast area before 12Z this morning,
but dry lower levels will help lower odds of any reaching the ground.

Temperatures will peak in the 50s today and fall into the lower 30s
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Saturday will be quiet with surface high pressure in control. Warm
advection may produce an isolated shower Saturday night across the
far northern portion of the area.

Sunday and Monday...

A deepening upper trough will produce a potent low pressure system
that will move into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. 850mb
winds in excess of 50kt will pump warmth and moisture into the area
Sunday. High temperatures could reach around 70 degrees.

Current timing for the cold front moving through central Indiana is
during the night Sunday night. This will help keep instability low,
but the impressive wind fields will keep a threat for strong to
severe convection going through the night.

Wrap around precipitation on Monday will be snow as much colder air
moves into the area. Some minor accumulation may occur on elevated
surfaces. Temperatures on Monday will only peak in the 30s most
areas.

Gusty winds will exist outside of any precipitation Sunday through
Monday, and a Wind Advisory may be needed at some point during this
period.

Tuesday...

Well below normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday with lows in
the teens Monday night and around 20 Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday
will only be around 30.

Wednesday and beyond...

A couple of weak systems in northwest flow aloft could bring some
light precipitation on Wednesday and then again Thursday night.
Temperatures will moderate, potentially reaching the 60s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts reaching 39-45kt by 15Z. Gusts gradually diminish
  during the afternoon

- Non-convective LLWS before 15Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid clouds will
persist into mid-morning then clouds will diminish.

Strong winds aloft will continue LLWS conditions early, then as the
pressure gradient tightens and mixing occurs in the daylight hours
of this morning, strong gusts will reach the surface. These will
gradually diminish during the afternoon as winds aloft weaken and the
pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts around 25kt will likely continue
through about 02Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-030-031-
038>042-048-049-057.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ028-029-035>037-
043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50