039
FXUS63 KIND 211055
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
655 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River and stream flooding continues across southern portions of
  Central Indiana

- Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before
  showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the
  holiday weekend, along with a return to warmer temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Cool and dreary conditions, despite a break from rainfall, are
expected across the area today as cool east/northeasterly flow and
subsidence aloft trap low level moisture and keep expansive stratus
in place today into tonight.

The break from active weather will be relatively brief as the
departed frontal boundary returns northward on Friday in response to
the movement of upper troughing over the northern portion of the
country, and subtle at least partially convectively driven shortwave
disturbances within the tail end of this trough extending into the
southern plains and mid-Mississippi valley.

With the best forcing displaced somewhat, and forecast profiles
showing fairly substantial midlevel dry air early in the day on
Friday, onset of rain may be delayed and coverage lessened, at least
early on, from previous expectations, and will trend PoPs
accordingly.

Late Friday afternoon into Friday night looks to be a washout, with
another relative lull in rain chances from mid morning Saturday into
early Sunday and perhaps longer. Latest guidance has also backed off
coverage of rainfall Sunday, as the area receives only a glancing
blow from upper level support swinging through the Great Lakes.

Modest precip chances will continue through the remainder of the
forecast period as model inconsistencies and the fact that most
events will rely in part on mesoscale disturbances difficult for
longer range guidance to resolve and time limit the ability to
narrow down these windows a bit better.

Temperatures over the holiday weekend into next week will trend
steadily warmer, with widespread above normal readings likely to
return by Memorial Day and continue into the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings at BMG, periods of MVFR at HUF

- ENE winds as much as 10-15KT with a few higher gusts possible

Discussion:

An inversion aloft north of a stalled front to our southeast is
trapping low level moisture and promoting widespread stratus across
the area. MVFR will prevail much of the day at BMG, with periods
possible at HUF. All sites should see prevailing VFR by this evening
if they have not already by that time.

Winds will generally be out of the east-northeast (040-080 degrees)
as high as 10-15KT at times. LAF may see gusts to 20KT during the
daytime hours, and other sites could see a few gusts but not enough
to merit inclusion at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Nield