710
FXUS63 KIND 111451
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
951 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Cloudy today with wind gusts around 25 mph.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday through the weekend, with
occasional rain chances Saturday into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected today with a dry
airmass still in place. Warm air advection ahead of an approaching
shortwave is aiding in slight moisture advection over the region.
This will continue to promote enhanced cloud cover during the day.
There is also a low chance for very light precipitation due to
forcing from the upper wave, but measurable precipitation appears
unlikely. Forecast soundings shows slight saturation in the mid-
upper levels with dry air near the surface. Will keep a mention of
sprinkles in the forecast later today as sufficient top-down
saturation could occur.

Chances for flurries should quickly diminish over the next few hours
as warm air advection continues to warm the thermal profile. The
combination of diurnal mixing into a strong LLJ and a tightening
MSLP gradient will promote increasingly windy conditions later
today. Gusts between 25-35 mph are expected. Isolated gusts as
high as 40 mph cannot be ruled out, but cloud cover should mostly
limit the depth of mixing and potential for these higher gusts.
Look for highs to reach the low-mid 40s this afternoon thanks to
strong SW flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

GOES19 shows mostly clear skies across Central Indiana early this
morning. Lake cloud was streaming across NE Indiana into western OH.
Abundant mid level cloud was found over IA MO and MN. These were
associated with an upper short wave near the Dakotas. Otherwise,
strong NW flow was in place aloft as seen on Water Vapor. A deep
upper low was found over NY and PA, keeping cyclonic flow in place
across the east coast. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high
pressure was in place over the deep south, with a ridge axis that
extended north into the Ohio valley and across Indiana. A weak
trough was found over the high plains, but precipitation was not
occurring with that. Thus the main weather feature impacting central
Indiana at the moment was the surface ridge of high pressure and the
associated clear skies.

Today...

Quiet weather is expected today, with passing clouds. Models show
the NW flow aloft persisting, allowing the previously mentioned
short wave to push across Indiana. This will allow the associated
clouds as seen on GOES19 to push across Indiana, resulting in partly
sunny skies through the day. Forecast soundings are on board with
this showing saturation aloft, but plentiful dry air within the
lower levels will keep the weather dry.

Warm air advection is in play today as the core of the cold air from
the previous system finally begins to exit to the east. 850MB temps
are expected to rise to around 0C by the end of the day. Furthermore,
southerly winds will arrive as the surface ridge axis slides east of
Indiana. This will allow for the melting of any snow and
temperatures should recover into the middle 40s for highs.

Tonight...

Models show the weak, dry trough pushing across Indiana tonight as
stronger high pressure remains anchored over Florida. Aloft, the
northwest flow on the lee side of ridging over the Rockies continues
to stream across Indiana, with little to no forcing available and
subsidence remains in play. Forecast soundings through the night
show a top down drying through the night. Thus we will expect mostly
clear skies with lows in the middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing upper-level ridging
building throughout the remainder of the week. Continued warm air
advection is expected after a brief, slightly breezy, cold front on
Wednesday. By Saturday, highs could even reach the mid 60s to low
70s.

The next chance of rain comes this weekend, ahead of a troughing
system moving through the northern half of the continent and
associated surface front. Rain could arrive as early as Saturday
night but best chances appear to be for Sunday. Behind the front,
temperatures are forecasted to drop back to near normal with highs
in the mid 50s. Models are showing brief ridging behind the front
but should be quickly followed by another low approaching at the end
of the period, out of the desert SW. This will bring additional rain
chances for early to mid next week but exact timing is yet to be
clear so will keep with guidance that has PoPs each day to end the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 654 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting to near 25 kts today

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A passing upper
level weather disturbance along with the beginning of warm air
advection will result some passing high mid level clouds through the
day. Forecast soundings show dry air within the lower levels through
the period which should limit precip but can`t rule out a few
isolate flurries.

A moderate pressure gradient across the area area will allow for
wind gusts to around 25 kts during the day today and a threat for
LLWS tonight as gradients remain aloft and gusts mixing down becomes
limited.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF