916
FXUS63 KIND 041832
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
232 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers ending this evening

- Gusty winds through the evening and turning colder

- Drier and cooler weather Sunday through much of the first half
  of the upcoming week. Frost/freeze potential exists Monday and
  Tuesday nights

- Warmer weather returns for the second half of the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Much of the forecast area has been spared by the convective risk as
storms have intensified over far eastern Indiana over the last hour.
These storms are already pressing into western Ohio with only a
small threat for lightning lingering until the cold front passes
later this afternoon. Winds have been gusty in the prefrontal
environment peaking at 35 to 40mph. Temperatures at 18Z remained
largely in the mid and upper 60s over most of the region.

The initial focus will be on the passage of the cold front over the
next few hours ushering in a return to a much cooler regime set to
last through the first part of the week. Concerns for a freeze are
growing for Monday night as well.

The position of the cold front at 18Z extended from west of Kokomo
southwest to near Terre Haute and Sullivan. This will push steadily
east and cross the forecast area over the next 4-5 hours.
Scattered low topped convection remains a possibility until the
frontal passage but a lack of appreciable instability will largely
mitigate any lightning concerns. A wind shift to west/northwest
will accompany the frontal passage along with a brief bump in peak
wind gusts as cold advection establishes. Obs over eastern
Illinois have carried wind gusts up to 35-40mph for an hour or two
behind the front.

The temperature drop is delayed slightly but the dewpoints fall 8 to
10 degrees almost immediately with the frontal passage and that will
be felt as the humidity drops quickly. There appears to be about a
15 degree fall in temps over the 4 hours following the frontal
passage which would equate to readings falling into the 40s by late
afternoon in the northwest and across the rest of the area
throughout the evening. Winds will remain brisk all evening making
it feel noticeably colder for evening outdoor activities as wind
chills slide into the upper 30s by 02-03Z. Scattered showers will
linger for a couple hours behind the front but expect dry conditions
across the forecast area by the second half of the evening.

Skies may briefly clear overnight but the arrival of the trailing
cold pool aloft will spread stratus back into the region from the
north by daybreak Sunday. Cold advection and cyclonic flow
maintaining mostly cloudy skies for much of the day will keep
temperatures in the low and mid 50s all day. Sunshine will become
more prevalent from the southwest during the afternoon as
progressively drier air builds in with high pressure.

The first half of the upcoming week will be highlighted by cooler
temperatures as a broad upper level trough settles over the region
and a couple of fronts early Monday and Tuesday reinforce the cooler
airmass across the area. With sunshine Monday expect highs to climb
into the upper 50s and lower 60s but the secondary frontal passage
Monday night will bring the coldest air in on Tuesday with highs
likely to hold in the mid and upper 40s over most of the forecast
area.

Concerns for frost and freeze conditions remain front and center
focused especially on Monday night. Lows Sunday night will fall into
the upper 30s but winds should remain elevated with a tighter
pressure gradient and mitigate more substantial frost accrual.
Monday night however under clear skies lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s are possible. Freeze headlines will be needed for Monday
night and Tuesday morning if these trends hold.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The second half of the upcoming week will see a return to above
normal temperatures as high pressure shifts east and the upper level
flow regime returns to general ridging over the eastern U S with a
broad trough in the west. Warm advection in the low levels will
resume as a frontal boundary oscillates across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest in response to the influence of multiple
disturbances. Ultimately though...much of the extended will be less
active than what we have experienced over the last several days.

Dry weather will continue midweek as the region remain under the
influence of the departing high pressure. The aforementioned frontal
boundary will slip south into the lower Great Lakes on Thursday and
may get close enough to warrant an isolated convective threat over
the northern Wabash Valley on Thursday. Otherwise...the risk for
rain and thunderstorms will likely hold off until next weekend as
low pressure ejects along the boundary and moves into the region.

Another chilly night is on the docket to start Tuesday night with
growing confidence in the need for frost/freeze headlines. Beyond
that though a progressive warming trend will commence on Wednesday
after the chilly start to the week with 70s common by Friday and
Saturday. There are hints of a more active pattern returning
returning in the 7 to 14 day period along with persistent warmer
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Impacts:

- Rain through the afternoon with a small threat for embedded
  thunder at KBMG and KIND
- MVFR ceilings with lower visibilities within rain
- Showers scatter late day then end this evening
- Winds veer to W/NW with the frontal passage late day with peak
  gusts at 25 to 30kts into this evening
- MVFR stratus returns Sunday morning with gusty northwest winds

Discussion:

Widespread showers across central Indiana early this afternoon with
the primary threat for thunder already shifting east of the
terminals. Will keep a VCTS mention at both KBMG and KIND for a
couple hours but the potential for -TSRA is rapidly diminishing at
both sites. Cold front at 16Z was approaching the northwest part of
central Indiana and expect that to pass across the terminals between
18Z and 22Z. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will veer to
W/NW with its passage. Peak wind gusts near or just above 25kts will
persist into the evening before dropping back into the overnight.
Steadier rain will be east of the terminals by 22Z with lingering
scattered showers ending from northwest to southeast this evening.

Periodic MVFR ceilings with the rain this afternoon will return to
VFR this evening and may even briefly clear overnight before the
trailing cold pool pivots into the region early Sunday. Expect a
fairly extensive MVFR deck to return after daybreak Sunday with the
possible exception of KBMG. Wind gusts will resume as well from the
northwest at 20-25kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan