826
FXUS63 KIND 071654
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1254 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasion showers/t-storms today into next week

- Localized ponding/flooding of low-lying areas will be possible
  where repeated rounds of downpours occur

- An isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out...mainly
  Saturday night into Monday night

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Today through Saturday night...

High humidity and seasonably warm conditions will continue through
this weekend across Indiana amid at times southwesterly breezes and
overall higher heights from stronger upper trough retracted to Upper
Midwest and north.  A few weak ingredients for convection should
come together at times, especially through early evening and perhaps
again for several hours Saturday, although confidence is low at any
given time for more than widely scattered showers and/or more than
isolated non-impactful storms.  Rain chances to trend from west to
east today through early evening, with lower certainty for this
morning`s POPs and higher confidence in at least briefly scattered
coverage from this afternoon along/south of I-70 and especially
later today over eastern counties.  Greatest potential impacts will
continue to be ponding of low-lying areas from localized downpours.

Potential for more scattered convection around the midday to early
evening timeframe on Saturday should small wave coming from northern
Illinois arrive late enough to catch daytime heating, which is not
expected.  More likely scenario is isolated showers early Saturday
and perhaps a few organized RW/TRW- after 18Z south/east of
Indianapolis. Only foreseeable impact would again be high water
following any downpours.

Sunday through Thursday...

From a synoptic standpoint, next week will be characterized by quasi-
zonal or very weakly cyclonic flow, with broad subtropical ridging
stretching from the southeastern CONUS into the Four Corners region,
evolving into a more amplified pattern as the ridge near and just
east of the west coast, with stronger upper level troughing dropping
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions late week.

This will translate into near normal temperatures early in the week
cooling slightly to just below normal by the latter part of the work
week. Additionally, low to moderate precipitation chances early in
the week will accompany low amplitude, low predictability shortwave
disturbances, with somewhat higher rain chances late in the week as
larger scale troughing enters the picture.

Despite the more limited rain chances early and higher chances late
in the week, heavy rainfall will remain a primary concern throughout
the week, as GEFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport progs show robust
moisture advection into or near the region much of the week, with
regional precipitable water values near to well above climatological
mean, and seasonably high wet bulb zero heights on the order of 12-
14kft much of the week all pointing toward high rainfall efficiency
in a background setting of plentiful recent rains.

Experimental machine learning guidance suggests at least a low
chance for a few strong to severe storms at times, but
predictability limits inherent in the overall synoptic pattern along
with those accompanying convection that is largely
thermodynamically/cold pool driven limit the ability to focus in
more detail on a particular period for severe risk, aside from
stating the obvious that late afternoon to evening time frames would
likely be the primary concern for most days at least until late in
the week when more significant synoptic forcing becomes a factor.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Impacts:

- VFR cigs this afternoon and early evening amid ISO-SCT -SHRA
- MVFR visibilities possible overnight

Discussion:

A warm and moist air mass across Central Indiana with some weak
forcing aloft will allow for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to
develop this afternoon and into the evening. ACARS soundings shallow
CAPE available near 1700 J/KG. This will be sufficient for shra/tsra
development due to diurnal heating. HRRR shows scattered convection
developing across the area after 20Z, persisting until 02Z. Morning
clouds have delayed convective initiation, but GOES19 shows a bit
more clearing to the west should allow for heating to proceed within
the next couple of hours.

After convection ends this evening, a return to VFR is expected, but
dew point depressions overnight remain small amid light winds which
will be an ideal recipe for MVFR fog development.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Nield/AGM