892
FXUS63 KIND 110827
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy at times today returning near normal readings...ample sun
  and/or lighter winds, and milder through remainder of the week

- Saturday night-Sunday...any rain showers most likely south of I-
  70...with low certainty on timing/rainfall amounts

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week amid milder
  conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Central Indiana will experience quiet weather through tonight as
surface high pressure builds into the area. The main questions will
be sky cover and effect of that on temperatures.

Lower clouds were across northern Ohio and portions of northern
Indiana early this morning. These are moving southeast, with some
dissipation on the western edge. At least some of these will move
through the northeastern forecast area in the predawn hours, with
perhaps some lingering in the early daylight morning hours in the
far east/southeast.

Some additional lower clouds will develop across northeast Indiana
in the cold advection during the morning, and these may sneak into
the far northeast forecast area at times into early afternoon.
Otherwise, some passing high clouds will move through at times today.

Will go with generally mostly sunny skies west and partly cloudy
skies east. As mentioned above, parts of the far northeast may be
mostly cloudy for brief periods.

Even with decent sunshine, cold advection will keep temperatures in
check. Blended guidance looks reasonable for highs, with readings in
the middle 30s northeast to the middle 40s southwest.

Tonight, high and mid clouds will increase ahead of an approaching
wave. This will work against radiational cooling, but lows in the
lower to middle 20s still look likely as the thicker clouds arrive
overnight. The coolest readings will be east where the clouds will
arrive last.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 326 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Fair weather to oversee gradual moderation to throughout most of the
long term...as current zonal pattern slowly lifts towards Canadian
border north of H500 ridge building over most of CONUS by early next
workweek.  Amplified, yet less-intense surface high pressure aligned
over the Upper Midwest Thursday morning...will slowly drag is center
east across the Midwest by early Friday.  This ridge to only weaken
as it settles near the Appalachians by the end of the
week...limiting strength of warm advective return flow. Nevertheless
seasonable conditions Thursday should trend to low 50s for most
central Indiana locations by Saturday, especially if thickening
clouds can hold off until late day.

Weekend to host a cut-off system tracking from West Texas to Gulf
coast, with confidence in rainfall amounts only trending downward
across most of the CWA.  Model disagreement on position of northern
extent of precipitation shield, from mid-level ridging attempting to
advance into Indiana before better precipitable water has the
opportunity to advect past the Ohio Valley...will limit precip
chances to Saturday night into Sunday.  Potential still exists for
up to 1.00 inch towards the Ohio Valley, with low certainty for
moderate rainfall even reaching Bloomington-Columbus.  High
confidence in lack of any northern energy/forcing supplying rain-
only precip type, with readings likely about 10 degrees above normal
Saturday-Sunday.

The long term will end with broad upper ridging building from the
Rockies to the Appalachians.  Corresponding broad, yet rather weak
surface high aligned from Lower Mississippi Valley to New England
will provide an increasing southerly breeze into the Hoosier State.
Despite expected increasing cloudiness, H850 temperatures
approaching 10 degrees Celsius will promote widespread early-April
conditions...with readings forecast to be overall more than 30
degrees higher than the average of the 2-weeks that followed the
late January winter storm.  Broad ridge to discourage organized
precipitation through most of Week 2.  The normal max/min at
Indianapolis through the long term is 41/24.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1159 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Impacts:

- Chance for MVFR ceilings at KBMG/KIND around 12Z

Discussion:

An area of clouds across northern Indiana will continue to move
south southeast and will likely reach the eastern sites by 10-12Z.
Low VFR to high MVFR ceilings will occur with them. These should
exit around 15Z.

Otherwise some high clouds will pass through at times. Winds will
remain northwest, up to near 15kt at times this afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50