076
FXUS63 KIND 080300
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend, with lows
  around freezing through Sunday night

- Highs return to the 60s early in the work week, but cooler
  temperatures will return mid-late week

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday night into
  Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fair weather to continue overnight as high clouds from earlier this
evening have dissipated while sliding southeast over southern
central Indiana zones.  Somewhat weaker surface ridge aligned from
southern Plains up the Ohio Valley, will maintain a dry column with
light winds with most likely a southwest heading when not variable/
calm.  Only potential impact through dawn will be quick visibility
variations in any patchy fog...focused mainly south of Interstse 70.

Dewpoints near the low 30s will guide overnight lows, with upper 20s
expected for many rural locations...and a good chance of the
season`s first freeze at Indianapolis Intl Airport.  The
Indianapolis Area`s official first freeze has been observed as early
as September 30 (in both 1899 and 1993) and as late as November 27
(1902).  Continuous low temperature records for Indianapolis began
in May 1871.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over MO and
southern IL. This was resulting in a cool northwest flow across
central Indiana. GOES19 shows some high, thin wispy CI pushing
across Indiana. The upper pattern across the United States was
dominated by an upper low over WNY and another low just south of AZ.
This was resulting in Pacific upper flow streaming across much of
the country, streaming from the NW United States, across the Great
Plains to the Ohio Valley and the Carolinas. Dew points across
Central Indiana were in the lower to mid 30s.

Tonight...

Dry weather will continue to be expected tonight. An upper level
trough will push across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes, but
this forcing will stay well north of Indiana. Meanwhile at the
surface, the strong high pressure system to our west will continue
to build across Indiana. Forecast soundings and time heights
continue to show a dry column with subsidence through the night.
Thus Mostly Clear skies will be expected along with lows in the
upper 20s and lower 30s.

Sunday and Monday...

More dry weather with above normal temperatures will be expected on
Sunday and into Monday as we start the work week. Within the NW flow
aloft, a trough is expected to push across the Great Lakes tonight,
but any forcing with that system will remain well north of Central
Indiana. Furthermore moisture remains an issued as high pressure
south of Indiana blocks any gulf moisture. Time heights and forecast
soundings remain dry also. Thus a mostly sunny Sunday will be
expected. However a moderate pressure gradient will set up across
the area resulting in some afternoon wind gusts.

Upper ridging will build across Indiana on Sunday night through
Monday as the surface high pressure to the southwest rebuilds across
Indiana. Again forecast soundings show a very dry column with ongoing
subsidence. Thus expect another sunny day with highs reaching the
lower 60s.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Mainly dry weather will be expected through the week with the
exception of late Wednesday through Thursday.

Models show northwest flow in place across Indiana on Tuesday into
Wednesday with the main northern jet north of Indiana, across the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile high pressure over the northern plains on
Tuesday will be building east and passing across Indiana through
Wednesday. This will lead to continued dry and cool weather.

By Wednesday night and through Thursday, an upper trough is shown to
drop out of western Ontario and deepen as it pushes across the
Great Lakes and into Indiana with ample forcing available. An
associated surface low is projected to push across Indiana on
Wednesday Night and Thursday, as a cold front passes across the area
on late Wednesday night. With these features in play, Chances for
rain will need to be included.

By Friday, Indiana will find itself on the backside of the departing
low and trough as a cool and strong area of Canadian high pressure
builds across Indiana. Although an early, wrap around shower cannot
be ruled out on Friday, dry weather and cooler weather building
across the area will be the rule for Friday into Saturday, with
below normal temperatures expected at that time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility in patchy fog is possible around 12Z at KLAF
- Winds slowly veering from SW to W Sunday
- Gusts up to 16-23KT Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

Outside of possible brief MVFR towards 12Z at KLAF, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail near central Indiana terminals through
Sunday evening.  Broad but rather weak surface high pressure
currently spread across much of the central CONUS will shift its
axis to the southern states through the TAF period...with ridging
maintained across the Midwest while a quick short wave crosses the
Great Lakes.

Continued dry column will allow SCT high cloud through 02Z
near/south of I-70, followed by mainly SKC through 10Z...and more
FEW/SCT high cloud through much of Sunday ahead of subtle cool front
trailing the northern wave.  This boundary will have a dry passage,
veering winds slightly from southwesterly to mainly west by 00Z
Monday.

Light winds overnight should increase slightly pre-dawn, with 7KT
reached 13Z-15Z.  Gusts to climb to 17-23KT at KLAF-KIND Sunday
afternoon...with westerly winds near 7KT after 00Z Monday at KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Puma