808
FXUS63 KIND 111921
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
221 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild today with showers and embedded thunderstorms developing late
  day

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible late today into this
  evening focused primarily across the southwest half of central
  Indiana. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A
  few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

A positively tilted shortwave will aid in the development of a
surface low, of which will pass through central Indiana later today
through tonight. Satellite imagery shows a well defined warm frontal
boundary with modest elevated instability just to the north. There
is a faintly defined cold front developing along/near the
Mississippi, but it is in the very early stages of FGEN with mainly
low level convergence as the primary driver. As the day progresses,
diurnal/differential heating along with low level pressure depletion
will aid in some additional FGEN, but without strong temperature
advection, the overall low pressure system will likely remain
relatively immature until after is pushes east of central Indiana.

Without strong temperature advection, the primary driver for today`s
convective threat will likely default to modest vorticity advection
and low level pressure depletion just ahead of the shortwave.
Current observations showcase an amplified and concentrated area of
CVA across IA/IL, but RAP analysis is indicating that this will
become for diffuse as the day progresses, with a more broadly
defined area of CVA this afternoon and evening. Pressure depletion
is likely to follow closely to the already defined warm front of
which is currently over northern portions of central Indiana. This
is where we expected the greatest concentration of convection to
occur, with mores scattered to isolated cells developing south of
this area over the rest of central Indiana.

Regarding the severe threat today, the primary concern is for
consistent small hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. While
tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of low level
directional shear along with a fairly dry and well mixed PBL will
inhibit tornadogenisis considerably. If a tornado were to occur, it
will likely be near or along the frontal boundary where locally
enhanced backing is observer, or where cell mergers occur within a
more organized convective cluster.

The main focus for damaging winds is expected to be along the I-74
corridor where greater mid level dynamics will likely aid in
convective organization, tapping into a very dry mid level layer.
Outside of this area, very isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled
out, but should mostly be contained to 35-45MPH winds within sparse
convective cells. Small hail is likely to be fairly prolific within
strong cells today due to the HGZ well within the area of steep
lapse rates (7.2-7.7C/km). Weak shear within this layer along with a
shallow corridor of CAPE is likely to keep most hail stones below
1". That said, there is a low end threat for these smaller hail
stones to congeal together to create large hail clusters. We will
watch for this within strong convective updrafts where numerous
cells are merging.

After the low passes to the east overnight, strong NW flow is
expected to develop as the PBL maintains instability beneath modest
CAA. Gusts are expected to peak around 30-35MPH, with consistent
gusts around 25MPH. This NW flow will push much cooler air into the
region with the coldest air of the Fall arriving for Thursday and
Friday. This cold air will be further reinforced by an amplifying
upper trough with a close low developing over the eastern Great
Lakes by Friday night. Multiple waves will pivot around the flank of
the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low level clouds and
periodic precipitation through the period.

The strongest of the short waves will track across the region on
Thursday. As it does so the wave will interact with strong cold
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered
to numerous light rain showers peaking in coverage during the
afternoon and focused particularly across the northeast half of the
forecast area. The addition of brisk northwest winds and broad
stratus will make for a raw chilly day across the area with highs
remaining in the 40s.

A strong upper level trough will continue to remain in place during
the day Friday. Despite limited moisture with dew points in the
upper 20`s to low 30`s, 15-25 kts of cold NNW flow off of Lake
Michigan supports the development of a north-to-south oriented band
of precipitation extending down towards the I-70 corridor. Even with
temperatures in the mid 30`s to low 40`s at the surface, freezing
temperatures just above the surface support the potential of a few
embedded snow showers and/or graupel.

The upper level trough is expected to shift east starting Saturday
bringing with it the transition to a ridging pattern that is
expected to persist through the end of next week. Other than some
scattered lingering cloud cover Saturday and Sunday, next week will
bring the return of more quiet seasonable weather and mainly sunny
skies. High temperatures next week will range in the 40`s through
upper 50`s with lows in the low to mid 30`s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 111 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers with embedded storms impacting the terminals
  between 21-02Z

- Gusty N/NW winds with MVFR ceilings developing tonight into early
  Thursday

Discussion:

As the low moves into the region late this afternoon convective
coverage will quickly increase. Scattered showers with embedded
thunder is expected after 21Z, with the threat continuing at KBMG
until 02Z. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with gusty W
winds and brief IFR visibilities. Winds will veer to N/NW and become
gusty immediately behind the front during the evening. MVFR stratocu
will gradually fill in as well for much of tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike/SM