926
FXUS63 KIND 021854
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant early summer weather with warming trend into the weekend

- Next chance for widespread rain will be late Saturday into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure remains the dominant weather influence over Central
Indiana through the remainder of the week, however a pattern change
arrives by the weekend leading to a stormier, warmer, and more
humid outlook for mid June.

Today through Friday...

A fairly dry airmass for this time of year will stick around for the
next few days as easterly flow on the southside of the Canadian High
keeps warm, moist Gulf air well to the south and west. Latest ACARs
soundings show a deep mixed layer to 2km agl this afternoon,
bringing down stronger gusts aloft in the 20-25 kt range. Went well
below guidance for humidity values today as much drier air is also
mixing down from aloft. RH values have already plummeted into the 25-
30% range with dew points in the 30s!

Over the next several days, high pressure over Ontario shifts into
the Southeast CONUS, switching flow from the northeast today, to
easterly tomorrow then to southerly on Thursday. Return flow from
the south will gradually bring a more summertime airmass northward
from the Gulf, increasing both temperature and humidity values into
the weekend. Forecast soundings show a dry column through Thursday
as the strong high moves through the area, leading to three days of
mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

There will be little in the way of temperature advection until
Thursday. Easterly surface flow today and Wednesday will result in
daily highs at or just above persistence, mid 70s to low 80s. Once
southerly flow kicks in, expect a jump in highs to at least the mid
80s across the region.

Saturday into early next week...

Rain chances return to the area on Friday night as the pattern of
ridging aloft begins to flatten out and become more zonal. A
shortwave and associated front pass near the area on Saturday
sparking off showers and thunderstorms from the northwest. Forecast
soundings continue to show favorable profiles for convection,
particularly on Saturday afternoon and evening when some instability
will be highest. Not ruling out the threat for severe weather
locally, but confidence remains low at the moment until the
mesoscale features and details become clearer in the coming days.

Forecast confidence decreases going into the latter half of the
weekend and next week due to large model discrepancies on how the
overall pattern evolves. Some longer range guidance suggest stronger
ridging re-developing aloft on Sunday and Monday, keeping the storm
track to the south and west. Other long range models hint at a
boundary stuck near the area with continued chances for showers and
storms within a humid and warmer airmass. Thus with mixed signals at
this time confidence is low. Given the warm and humid air mass along
with attainable convective temperatures, some small chance pops will
be reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected this TAF period.
- Gusts 20-25 kts through 00z

Discussion:

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period as high pressure
remains the dominant weather influence over Central Indiana. Latest
ACARs soundings show deep mixing to nearly 2km agl allowing for
higher gusts to mix to the surface. Going well over guidance for
wind gusts this afternoon in the 20-25 kt range. NE winds should
subside to under 10 kts after 00-02z as a nocturnal surface
inversion sets up. As high pressure shifts south, winds will become
easterly on Wednesday with sustained winds likely under 10 kts due
to weaker low level flow. No vis or cig concerns in the near future.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...CM
DISCUSSION...CM