381
FXUS63 KIND 040111
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
911 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry throughout the next week with most days at near to above
  normal temperatures under the influence of high pressure

- Fire weather conditions will require monitoring as several
  afternoons will likely feature minimum RH values well down into
  the 30s if not lower at times

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Quiet evening as high pressure resides across the region. Thin
cirrus had drifted back across the southern half of the forecast
area with clear skies further north. Temperatures were falling
quickly with 50s common over much of the area as of 01Z.

Forecast is in excellent shape for the overnight. Cirrus will linger
across the southern half of the forecast area for much of the night
before shifting away to the southeast towards daybreak. Chilly night
anticipated with low to mid 40s anticipated for much of the area
north of I-70. Could see a few locations over our northeast counties
approach 40 degrees by daybreak.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Quiet weather will continue across central Indiana through the first
half of next weekend. For much of the period, the area will be under
northwest flow aloft with high pressure in control of the surface.

A couple of cold fronts will move through during the next week. The
first will be on Sunday. Forcing from the associated short wave will
be well north of the area, and there will be no moisture for the
front to work with as the Gulf will be cut off. Another front will
move through mid to late week next week, and it too will have no
moisture.

High temperatures will remain near to above normal for most of the
next week. The exception will be Monday, which will be cooler with
the passage of the first cold front. While that second front will
move through later in the week, most guidance keeps cooler air out
of the area.

With the cooler air Monday night, some locations will dip into the
upper 30s. Cannot rule out some patchy frost in favored cold spots,
especially northeast.

The only other concern this week will be afternoon humidity values
around 30 percent for some areas. With a drying ground, this could
cause some increase in fire weather concerns. Will have to watch for
the potential for even lower humidity, as blended guidance can miss
lower dewpoints from better mixing. Winds at least do not look to
add to any concern.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 548 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

High pressure will remain largely in control throughout most of the
forecast period. Scattered cirrus will drift across the area tonight
but should depart prior to daybreak. Not expecting any fog impacts
at the outlying terminals on Sunday morning with dry airmass present
through the boundary layer.

A weakening cold front will pass through the region Sunday afternoon
but with limited moisture...it will just bring a subtle increase in
clouds and a noted shift to northwest winds around 10kts. Skies will
then clear Sunday evening as high pressure reestablishes.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...50