831
FXUS63 KIND 010619
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
219 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly Sunny to Mostly Cloudy Today. A sprinkle possible.

- Dry and pleasant weather ahead this week. Near-average
  temperatures, highs near 80, lows in 50s/60s.

- Next best chance for widespread rain will be on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Surface analysis early this morning reveals a easterly flow due to
strong high pressure north of the Great Lakes. Aloft, water vapor
shows ridging in place over the plains and an broad upper trough
stretching Ontario and the Great Lakes. A ribbon of pesky middle and
upper level moisture under the ridge was found stretching from the
southeastern states, across Indiana to the upper midwest. The clouds
across Central Indiana were preventing a quick temperature fall.

Today...

The upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will sag across
Indiana today. As this feature passes, it will interact with the
pesky mid and upper level moisture as seen on water vapor. This will
lead to mostly cloudy skies. HRRR shows a few showers and storms
trying to develop this afternoon amid this upper forcing. Forecast
soundings do not appear very favorable for any convection with mid
level capping in place and very dry lower levels. A sprinkle or
virga will be more likely, but a very isolated one-hundreth of an
inch of precipitation is possible. Confidence remains very low for
that as high pressure and low dew points remain dominate at the
surface. Clouds should limit high temperatures today as they reach
only the upper 70s to near 80.

Tonight through Wednesday...

A continued period of dry and clear weather will arrive tonight in
the wake of the upper trough. Models suggest strong ridging in place
stretching from the central Plains to western Ontario, leading to
subsidence across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This will result in a
strong area of surface high pressure setting north of Indiana,
continuing to provide cool and dry easterly lower level flow.
Forecast soundings will remain very dry through this time, leading
to mostly clear skies. Look for daily highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Thursday and Friday...

Continued dry weather will be expected to end the work week. Models
shows the ridging aloft breaking down on Thursday before a more
zonal flow arrives aloft on Friday. Strong surface high pressure
will remain in place over the southeastern states, allowing a warmer
and more humid air mass to begin to arrive in the area. A weak
frontal boundary will approach Central Indiana on Friday afternoon
from the northwest, but overall forcing remains limited, and very
limited CAPE appears available for the moment in the late afternoon
as an inversion is signaled aloft. Thus some low pops may be
included on the chance something changes, but confidence for rain on
Friday is low.

Saturday and Sunday...

The best chances for rain will return on Saturday. Models suggest a
weak wave will push across Central Indiana within the flow aloft on
Saturday. The warmer and more humid lower level flow will provide
moisture and forecast soundings suggest more CAPE available on
Saturday afternoon and Saturday. Thus convection and rain chances
cannot be ruled out.

More chances for rain will persist on Sunday. Even though ridging
will be in place aloft, the warm and humid air mass favorable for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms will remain present. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE available for diurnal instability
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1227 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

With strong ridging in place west of the TAF sites, a upper trough
is expected to push across Indiana today, sagging south from the
Great Lakes. The lower levels remain very dry with ongoing easterly
flow. However mid level saturation is expected to persist from time
to time as the upper trough passes. This will lead to mid level VFR
cigs through the day.

An isolated shower or sprinkle will be possible, but confidence for
that is low due to very dry lower levels and 30+ degree dew point
depressions.

Clear skies should return on Monday night as high pressure over the
Great Lakes continues to build across Indiana providing cool and dry
easterly winds.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma