599
FXUS63 KIND 101954
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 30-35 mph on Tuesday.

- Flurries or scattered light snow showers possible on Tuesday.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday onward, with occasional rain
  Friday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Snow is ending across central Indiana as of 2pm. We`ve seen
amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches on average with some pockets of
2 to 4 inches north of Indy. Skies are rapidly clearing behind
the departing system, and increased sunshine will help much of the
snow melt before sunset despite temperatures still near freezing.

Winds should diminish with time as well as weak surface ridging
advances from the west. Mostly clear skies and light (but not calm)
winds should promote decent radiative cooling potential tonight.
Another night with lows in the low 20s appears likely. A few pockets
of upper 10s are possible, especially in places where the snowpack
survives into the night.

Aloft, the large upper tough responsible for today`s snow will begin
departing eastward. Ridging begins in earnest with mid-level warm
air advection commencing. A weak vort max dropping southeastward
ahead of the ridge should lead to a period of cloudiness tomorrow.
Some of the high-resolution guidance hints are some flurries or
light snow showers at times. However, the primary effect this system
will have is gusty winds from the southwest. Low pressure passing
well to our north will allow the MSLP gradient to tighten
significantly resulting in winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30-35kt.

Strong southwesterly winds advecting in warmer air should bring
about a warmer day compared to today. Highs on Tuesday look to be in
the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing upper-level ridging
building throughout the remainder of the week. Continued warm air
advection is expected after a brief cold front on Wednesday.
Ensemble guidance differs regarding a warm front and how far north
it gets. This front, lifting northward beginning on Thursday, could
bring temperatures back into the 60s or near 70.

One key factor determining how far north the front reaches is a
large area of surface high pressure over southeastern Canada.
Scenarios with a stronger high hold the warm front back longer,
where scenarios with a weaker high allow the front to make more
progress northward. The GFS deterministic resides in the stronger
surface high camp with its ensemble trending in that direction as
well. In this scenario the warm front is slower or even stalls over
portions of our area leading to cooler temps or a large horizontal
temperature gradient across the area. The ECMWF tends to be weaker
and more transient with the high, thus is the solution with warmer
surface temps over most of central Indiana.

Regardless, a system passing to our north looks to kick the warm
front northeastward at some point during the weekend. We`ll likely
see an increase in surface winds around then with a cold front
following with colder air towards the beginning of next week. A
period of rain is possible as well, but a cut-off low to our
southwest may complicate things somewhat. Guidance differs with how
the cold front and cut-off low interact, which could lead to
substantially different rainfall amounts depending on how things
play out.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Impacts:

-Snow ending at BMG around the beginning of the TAF period.
-SW winds 15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt on Tuesday.

Discussion:

Snow is ending from north to south across central Indiana. Snow is
expected to end at BMG shortly before the start of the TAF period.

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon except for BMG where MVFR
will linger a bit longer. First half of the night should be mainly
clear with high cirrus arriving after midnight. A thick mid-level
cloud deck will arrive by sunrise with perhaps some flurries during
the day Tuesday.

Winds will diminish today to less than 10kt after 00z. Winds become
southwesterly on Tuesday while increasing to 15-25kt gusting to 25-
30kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff