795
FXUS63 KIND 102350
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/t-storms possible late this afternoon and
  overnight. Gusty winds and localized flooding possible.

- Hot and humid today and Thursday. Heat indices between 100 and 105
  degrees.

- Thunderstorms likely again late Thursday into Thursday night.
  Strong to severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with near average
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

As of this afternoon, central Indiana has low lying cumulus
clouds that have thinned out over the past hour with slight drying
aloft but satellite is already showing the cumulus clouds filling
back in from the SW. CAMs continue to try to have isolated
showers pop up this afternoon, but confidence remains low on those
occurring due to a lack of lift and just not enough instability
yet. The next best chance for showers and storms will be this
evening into tonight with slight severe risk in our far NW.

The pattern aloft is characterized by ridging over the eastern US
and into Canada with troughing over the western US. A slow-moving
vort max displaced from the jet stream meanders over the Great
Lakes. This feature is what has been bringing the near daily rain
chances to Indiana lately. As the western trough moves eastward, the
vort max will eject northeastward. Southwesterly flow aloft then
intensifies, bringing the warming trend for today and tomorrow.

High temperatures through tomorrow will be near 90, with dew points
into the low to mid 70s. Max heat indices are forecasted to be
between 100 and 105, which may lead to enhanced heat risk for
vulnerable populations.

Can`t rule out the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Despite minimal forcing, it doesn`t take much in such a
humid environment to generate some convective activity. Buoyant
forces alone can get the job done, however as mentioned above,
confidence is low as in hot humid environments, will be hard to pin
point exactly where these showers/storms develop if they do in fact
develop. Activity likely remains isolated to scattered during the
afternoon.

Things change as we head into tonight. Convection initiated from the
approaching trough should propagate southeastward out of Illinois.
This activity is likely to be more organized, especially if it
develops a cold pool and can consolidate into a line. Guidance
suggests that these storms may be outflow dominant as it heads
deeper into Indiana and the system is expected to lose steam as it
approaches our forecast area. If the storms maintain their strength,
can`t rule out some severe weather potential with damaging winds as
the main threat and our north having the highest threat.
Additionally, given recent rainfall, a flooding threat could again
materialize.

After a mostly dry day tomorrow, another round of convection
associated with a wave ejecting from the broader trough looks to
arrive late Thursday. Guidance shows a bit more energy in the
atmosphere which could lead to severe thunderstorms at times,
especially northwestern portions of central Indiana. Like this
evening, storms likely become outflow dominant as they head
southeast away from the best forcing and shear. Strong to severe
wind gusts and localized flooding are the primary hazards with the
highest threat in our NW.

Once that system and its cold front pass through late Thursday
night, a transition to a cooler and less active pattern appears
likely. Broad troughing aloft looks to persist this weekend and
into next week, with near-average temperatures (highs near 80 and
lows near 60) along with lower humidity. A few weak waves embedded
within the broader trough may bring rain chances on Sunday and then
again on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. These are subtle
features and are hard to pin point this far out. So we will maintain
only chance PoPs next week until the signal become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Impacts:

- Thunderstorms with strong gusty winds and brief IFR conditions
  developing between 04-07Z ending by 09Z.

- Gusty SW winds from 20-25 kts after Thursday afternoon.

- Thunderstorms approaching KIND during freighter inbounds Thursday
  night.

Discussion:

Thunderstorm activity that recently move through KLAF has been
weakening as it moves away from the best forcing aloft in northern
IN and southern MI.

Additional larger clusters of thunderstorms over eastern IA,
northern MO and NW IL will move quickly SE to near KLAF around 04Z
and KBMG/KIND between 06-07Z. Given the expected intensity of these
thunderstorms, have added brief IFR vis and variable gusts over 35
kts for a 1-2 hr period both ahead of and in the wake of the
convective line.

Residual showers behind the thunderstorm line will diminish by 12Z.
Tomorrow should be characterized by VFR conditions and increasing SW
wind gusts of 20-25 kts by afternoon.

Another convective line will move across central Indiana Thursday
night possibly affecting KIND during the middle part of the
freighter inbounds, and have added VCTS to account for the
likelihood of this occurrence.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...KF/Eckhoff