519
FXUS63 KIND 301035
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
535 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries and light snow over the northeast half of
  central Indiana this evening

- Greater risk for snow and light accumulations Wednesday afternoon
  and evening along and northeast of Interstate 74

- Seasonably cold through much of the rest of the week with
  temperatures warming by late this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Stubborn stratus deck remains over much of the forecast area early
this morning as clearing remains stalled near the Illinois border.
Scattered flurries and a few light snow showers continue to impact
much of the northeast half of central Indiana and have produced a
fluffy dusting in several locations. 07Z temperatures were in the
teens with brisk W/NW winds.

Upper level forcing has lingered across the region as a wave aloft
pivots around the back side of the deep upper level low currently
over western Quebec. This will shift east of the region over the
next few hours which should finally bring an end to the flurries
prior to daybreak. RH progs support the back edge of the lower
stratus shifting east into the forecast area through mid morning
aided by a subtle infusion of drier air aloft as weak surface
ridging briefly builds in.

Any sunshine this morning will gradually diminish into the afternoon
as mid and high level clouds expand back into the Ohio Valley from
the north in advance of a weak clipper system dropping out of the
Canadian prairies. This feature will weaken as it moves southeast
into the Great Lakes by late day but will spread flurries and light
snow into the northeast half of the forecast area for this evening.
Cannot rule out a dusting focused mainly over our far northeast
counties but more than anything the passage of this system will be
to bring a return of the snow globe style flakes we have seen since
Monday morning with brisk southwest winds.

Flurries will depart the forecast area after 06Z Wednesday with some
clearing focused mainly across the southwest half of central Indiana
as weak surface ridging once again tries to expand albeit briefly
into the Ohio Valley.

Temps...low level thermals support highs between 25 and 30 degrees
this afternoon. Lows tonight will only fall into the low to mid 20s
with the clouds and brisk winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A fairly typical winter pattern will continue as we enter 2026
with broad northwest flow aloft across the region. An upper wave
with an associated cold front will sweep through the area late
Wednesday into Wednesday night with the potential for light snow
accumulations and a reinforcing surge of colder air. Strong ridging
aloft over the western U S will spread east this weekend into early
next week allowing for a recovery in temperatures to near normal
levels.

Wednesday through Thursday

Weak surface ridging will briefly poke into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday morning before clouds once again increase into the
afternoon. A deep upper level wave will pivot around the base of a
sub 490dam upper low over James Bay and aid in sharpening the upper
trough focused across the region by Wednesday evening. A cold front
will sweep south with snow expanding into the forecast area by late
afternoon and persisting through the evening. CAMs have continued a
gradual strengthening of the system further south with higher
confidence now present in light snow accumulations and minor travel
impacts for late afternoon and evening.

Model soundings show the column saturating up to around 600mb and
through the dendritic growth zone for a couple hours which may allow
for a brief period with higher snowfall rates focused across the
northeast half of the forecast area. Snow ratios initially will be
near climo norms in the 10:1 to 12:1 range but as progressively
colder air builds south...expect ratios closer to 15:1 by the time
snow ends around or shortly after 06Z Thursday. Have nudged up
accums along and northeast of I-74 up to around a half inch with the
potential for areas from Delphi and Kokomo southeast through Muncie
and Winchester around an inch if not slightly higher. Even with
accums being light...the timing is not ideal as it will coincide
with New Years Eve activities.

A reinforcing surge of Arctic air will follow Wednesday night and
Thursday in the wake of the frontal boundary and snow. Despite
increased sunshine for New Years Day as high pressure moves across
the region...temperatures will remain firmly in the 20s north of I-
70 with lower to mid 30s further south.

Thursday Night through Monday

The amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a ridge in the
western U S and a trough over the eastern half of the country will
break down as the ridging weakens but presses east towards the area.
High pressure will maintain largely dry weather for the end of the
week as a surface wave passes well to the south of the region.
Temperatures will begin to rise for Friday and Saturday with most of
the forecast area in the 30s. By the second half of the
weekend...surface flow will swing around to the south as the high
shifts east of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm back to near
above normal levels largely in the 40s by Sunday and Monday in
response.

Confidence in the forecast for next week is low as overall flow
pattern across the country becomes messy and could potentially see
the redevelopment of a ridge in the west and trough in the east.
There are hints of a return to a more extended period of colder and
unsettled weather by the second week of January.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 535 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings departing this morning

- W/SW wind gusts peaking at 20 to 25kts at times this afternoon and
  evening

- Scattered flurries possible at KIND and KLAF this evening

- MVFR ceilings returning predawn Wednesday

Discussion:

Scattered flurries will diminish over the next couple hours as an
upper level wave moves off to the east. The back edge of the stratus
deck was into far western Indiana and will slowly shift east across
the region through midday. Any clearing will be temporary as mid
level clouds overspread the region from the north this afternoon as
low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. Scattered flurries or
light snow showers will likely expand across the northeast half of
central Indiana for a few hours this evening before departing off to
the east late tonight. MVFR stratus will expand south across the
terminals during the predawn hours Wednesday.

Winds will again become brisk this afternoon and evening with peak
gusts around 20 to 25kts at times from the W/SW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan