465
FXUS63 KIND 310542
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
142 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts from 30-40 mph Tuesday.

- A wet pattern late Tuesday through Saturday.

- A few strong t-storms and locally heavy rainfall is possible
  across northern portions of central Indiana Tuesday night.

- Potential for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather for
  late Thursday and again late Saturday.

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Surface analysis this evening shows a tight pressure gradient in
place across Central Indiana. This was due to low pressure over MN
and a much stronger high off the coast of the Carolinas. This was
resulting gusty SW flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows some mid and
high clouds over Illinois, poised to push into Central Indiana.

THe advancing clouds along with ongoing warm air advection and
excellent mixing overnight will prevent temperatures from dropping
too much. Thus ongoing lows in the lower 60s appear on the mark,
along with increasing clouds overnight. Overall, ongoing forecast is
in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today and tomorrow will be breezy and warm as the region sits under
strong southwest flow between high pressure to the east and an
approaching surface low. Pressure gradients overhead will tighten
through the period as that surface low approaches from the west.

Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.
The ongoing WAA could also bring us a chance to break the record
high minimum temperature tonight, as lows are forecast to only reach
the low to mid 60s. Deep mixing has been promoting gusts between 30-
35 mph at times today. Overnight, gusts are only expected to
decrease by 5-10 mph, but can`t rule out a stray higher gusts.
Stronger winds are likely Tuesday as the developing low pressure
system approaches. Look for gusts up to 40 mph during the day. Rain
and storms from the approaching system could reach our NW/N counties
as early as midday tomorrow, but better and more widespread chances
are expected after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tuesday Night...

Surface cold front across the lower Great Lakes region Tuesday
afternoon will be the primary focus for convective development to
the N-NW of central Indiana. Thunderstorms are expected to be
numerous in coverage and gradually shift E-SE Tuesday night aided by
modest frontal/outflow propagation. Given the nearly unidirectional
shear profiles parallel to the frontal boundary and relatively
modest instability (MUCAPE under 1000 j/kg) and PWATs over 1.2 inches
near the climatological max, heavy rainfall threat looks to be the
biggest forecast concern. The northern zones remain in the Day 2
marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Have bumped up QPF in these
area to over 0.5 inch/6 hrs to account for the greater thunderstorm
coverage and timing of the front after 06Z. Far northern portions of
the CWA presently have soil moisture values less than 50 percent,
meaning that the risk for flash flooding is low. Although there will
be plenty of vertical shear, the potential for severe wind/hail is
marginal given the paucity of instability.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...

The front is expected to stall somewhere near the I-70 corridor
Wednesday morning, with the further south position in guidance
preferred owing to convective outflow enhancement of the fronts
southward component Tuesday night. Disagreement exists in the model
guidance how soon the front begins to move northward as a warm front
during this period. This complicates the threat for rainfall amounts
and also leads to high bust potential for high temperatures
Wednesday especially across the I-70 corridor. For now have gone
with the NBM blend which suggests the front will remain generally
near I-70 until evening when stronger pressure falls commence as a
low deepens over the Central Plains. Although scattered showers are
possible along the boundary with weak convergence and a moist
airmass, overall mid level height rises and resultant poor mid level
lapse rates are expected to preclude the threat for heavier showers
and thunderstorms.  As the front moves northward Wednesday night,
PoPs have been decreased to account for the decreasing low level
forcing and negligible mid-upper level forcing.

Thursday and Thursday Night...

As low pressure and an associated cold front move east out of the
Plains, model consensus is for renewed convective development to
occur in the vicinity of the MS river valley during Thursday
afternoon. Have lowered PoPs for Thursday to account for this
frontal position being further west. Fairly strong low level winds
(850 mb around 50 kt) combined with strong pressure gradient will
support southerly wind gusts up to 35 mph, mainly in western zones.
Forecast soundings suggest marginally instability, (less than 1000
j/kg of MUCAPE) which is being limited by a noteworthy inversion
aloft around 500 mb and modest low level moisture owing to deep BL
mixing. As the shortwave trough and associated low pressure and
front move east Thursday night, a weakening trend in the wind fields
should support a slower speed of the cold front into central Indiana
leading to another threat for heavy rainfall and minor flooding.

Friday into Saturday Night....

The cold front is expected to stall across central Indiana early
Friday before lifting north as a warm front Friday night. Like
Wednesday, gradual height rises and limited convergence will support
showers but threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms looks minimal.
The primary shortwave will move into the Plains Friday. A much
stronger mass response is expected with this system at the surface
with stronger low level forcing/frontal convergence. Although it`s
too early to tell the magnitude of the severe threat, strong wind
fields do support the potential for a slight or higher risk of
severe weather late Saturday as the cold front approaches from the
west. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible with any
thunderstorms given PWATs near record climatological levels and
shear values parallel to the frontal boundary. The threat for heavy
rain/severe weather should end during the night Saturday night.

Sunday into Monday...

In the wake of the cold front much cooler temperatures are expected
with highs near or slightly below normal with much lower humidities
and breezy conditions on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Impacts:

- Low Level Wind Shear through daybreak

- Southwest winds gusting 20-25KT through daybreak, gradually
  increasing to 30-35KT during the afternoon

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms after 00-02Z Wednesday

Discussion:

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Elongated
low pressure along a surface cold front to our northwest will
produce wind gusts at times through Tuesday afternoon, generally
from 200-220 degrees. Gusts during the overnight will be 20-25KT at
times, strengthening this afternoon to 30-35KT.

Additionally, strong low level flow will produce borderline LLWS
conditions at times, with 2kft winds around 230 degrees at 40-50KT
across the area. Will carry LLWS at all sites until the low level
jet weakens slightly mid morning.

As the front drops into the area this evening, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase, particularly over the north. Will
carry prevailing showers at LAF after 00Z with a VCTS mention.
Otherwise will carry a PROB30 thunder mention after 00Z at IND/HUF
and 02Z at BMG. Occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in the
stronger showers/storms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Nield