628
FXUS63 KIND 031344
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
944 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions with slightly below or near normal
  highs through Wednesday

- Generally humid, seasonably warm with occasional rain/storm
  chances Wednesday night through Sunday...rain most likely
  Thursday-Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Current satellite and surface observations still depict low stratus
across a large portion of central Indiana. East/northeast portions
of central Indiana have already cleared out significantly over the
past few hours. A strong August sun and subsidence from surface high
pressure will continue to clear out the low clouds later this
morning into the early afternoon. Minor visibility reductions are
still being reported at a few sites, but these sites should quickly
improve in the next hour. Look for mostly clear skies later today
and quiet weather conditions. Enjoy a relatively pleasant afternoon
with slightly cooler than normal highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
and dewpoints generally in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Early this morning through tonight...

Areas of reduced visibility are possible through the pre-dawn hours
and Monday morning commute among light winds and rather damp
conditions in the mid-60s.  Quick changes/drops in visibility are
possible, especially around open fields and bodies of water.  Fog is
expected to clear by 900 AM EDT.

Narrow upper riding will slide from the Upper Midwest to
southeastern Canada over the next two periods...while corresponding
amplified, yet weak surface high pressure shifts from the Great
Lakes to central Appalachians by early Tuesday.  Despite ample
sunshine by this afternoon, light northeast breezes under H850
temperatures near 16 degrees Celsius...will yield sub-seasonal
readings, with highs around 80F for most locations. Lack of
stronger northerly advection will, however, still allow
seasonable/moderate humidity...with dewpoints maintained in the
mid-60s through much of this evening.

Tonight will feature a smaller transition to brief cooler conditions
as the surface ridge`s center passes just to the north of the CWA.
Flow will likely veer towards an easterly heading while trending
to light and variable...as noticeably lower dewpoints around
55-60F reach most counties by dawn. Mostly clear skies will
promote temperatures falling to the upper 50s/around 60F for most
zones...which will present potential for widespread fog and and
patches of visibility under 1 mile...especially where heavy
rainfall has fallen since Saturday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Central Indiana will be in between an upper low to the southeast and
a large upper trough approaching from the northwest. At the surface,
high pressure looks to remain in control. Will continue with a dry
forecast, but will have to keep an eye on the upper low. If it
drifts farther to northwest than expected, some low PoPs may have to
be added to the forecast for parts of the area.

Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 80s.

Wednesday night and beyond...

The large upper trough will move into the area at least into
Saturday. Various shortwaves will move through this trough, bringing
rounds of forcing. At the surface, a front will meander across the
area. These will be enough to keep PoPs around through the period.
Uncertainty remains relatively high on when the best forcing will be
in the area, but for now odds favor Thursday afternoon and night.

With increasing moisture, instability will be able to increase
across the area late in the week. For now, odds are low for any
severe storms, but will continue to monitor in case one of the
shortwaves becomes stronger than currently expected.

Some guidance hints at the ridge across the western USA nudging into
the area late in the weekend into early next week. This would lower
rain chances and allow temperatures to return to around 90 degrees.
Given the uncertainty, will keep highs mainly in the middle and
upper 80s into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Impacts:

- LIFR/IFR ceilings possible through 13Z
- MVFR/worse visibility in BR through 13Z at KHUF/KBMG
- Potential MVFR ceilings in cumulus through 16Z

Discussion:

Damp early morning underway for all central Indiana terminals, with
stratus ceilings at only 200-500 feet locked-in, with lowest decks
over KBMG/ KHUF...and concurrent visibility reduction from BR to
MVFR at KHUF and IFR/MVFR at KBMG.  Expect conditions to improve
through 13Z...with ceilings rising to MVFR and/or scattering out by
14Z for most locations.

Further occasional MVFR ceilings are possible across the region thru
midday should low cumulus field reach BKN coverage.  Remainder of
TAF period to favor most-often VFR conditions amid light northeast
flow through 06Z tonight.  Calm and mostly clear conditions later
tonight could once again promote fog.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...50/AGM