458
FXUS63 KIND 230200
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will trend from slightly below normal to near
  normal through Saturday.

- There are periodic chances for showers and storms late Wednesday
  through Saturday.

- Potential for above normal temperatures (hot and humid conditions)
  by early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Conditions evolving as expected so far this evening as perhaps the
early summer`s last small blast of southern Canadian surface high
pressure builds southeastward into central Indiana.  Clouds will
continue to diminish as ceilings rise through the early overnight,
with mostly clear skies expected by pre-dawn.  Patchy fog will
limit visibility in a few areas, especially south of I-70 where heavy
to extreme rainfall last night has kept soils damp.  Light northerly
winds will allow readings to fall easily through the 60s...into the
low 50s near Lafayette to upper 50s south of the I-70 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This afternoon through Monday)...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Afternoon through Tuesday...

Low clouds and patchy drizzle linger through at least the mid
afternoon hours today near a lingering 925-850 mb trough axis. This
feature shifts off to the southeast by early this evening with
clouds scattering out as drier air advects in from northwest to
southeast. Ridging through the column then provides the area with
pleasant wx into Tuesday with ample sunshine and temperatures
slightly below seasonal norms.

Wednesday into Thursday...

A shortwave tracking east into the Great Lakes will drag a cold
front slowly southeast through the area late Wednesday into Thursday
with chances for showers and a few storms. More pronounced forcing
likely bypasses north and overall moisture return is not all that
impressive. Thus, have held PoPs mainly in the low to mid chance
range during these periods. Temperatures and humidity levels will
remain slightly below seasonal averages otherwise.

Friday through Monday...

Thursday`s front will stall out in the vicinity of the Ohio River by
Friday and Saturday with several convectively aided shortwaves
tracking through in quasi-zonal flow. The result will be periodic
rain/storm chances during these days, though confidence remains low
as any convective complexes will modulate where the instability axis
will set up for convection to organize. Ensemble and deterministic
model solutions then continue to point toward a hotter/muggy pattern
Sunday into early next week as upper level ridging expands northward
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Impacts:

- Any brief MVFR ceilings this evening departing east by 02Z
- Low chances of MVFR visibility in BR late tonight at KBMG

Discussion:

VFR conditions have returned to all central Indiana terminals...
excepting KBMG where MVFR stratus will linger to around 00Z.  Next
rather short-lived bubble of Canadian high pressure to track from
south-central Canada this evening to the Great Lakes/Midwest by the
end of the TAF period.  Decreasing SCT-low/BKN-mid this evening will
yield mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through Tuesday
night...although SCT cumulus field can be expected for some areas by
late Tuesday afternoon.

North to north-northwesterly flow through the TAF period will be
overall lighter, with flow sustained to 7KT/less through 15Z...and a
subtle increase to 4-8KT Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel