314
FXUS63 KIND 061436
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1036 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending today, skies will remain mostly cloudy.

- Slight warmer on Thursday and again on Friday.

- More showers are expected on Friday Night. A thunderstorm possible.

- Largely below normal temperatures through Tuesday with more
  chances for rain on Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Forecast is in relatively good shape this morning, with only minor
adjustments necessary. Some sunshine through thin mid-level cloud is
helping temperatures slowly recover this morning. Though cloud cover
will gradually increase into the afternoon, visible satellite
indicates some thinness to this additional cloud as well, which
along with neutral or even some modest warm advection late in the
day may take high temperatures a degree or two above prior forecast.
Have bumped max temps up just a bit to account for this, as well as
adjusting sky cover in line with satellite trends.

Though regional radar mosaic does show some very light returns, the
vast majority of this will produce no noticeable droplets at the
ground, at least not enough to merit a mention of sprinkles. Dry
conditions will be the rule through the day and into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a trough of low pressure
stretching from NE PA across OH to central KY. High pressure was
found over the Dakotas and MT, spilling SE across the plains and into
the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows a plume of tropical moisture
stretching from TX to MO, across Indiana and then NE to the St.
Lawrence Valley. Radar shows a large area of showers beneath this
plume, in the wake of the front stretching from NY State across IN
to MO. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow was in place due to a deep area of
low pressure over NRN Quebec. A trough axis rotating around that
low was moving through the upper midwest, with the previously
discussed plume of moisture streaming ahead of it.

Today...

The upper trough axis is expected to sag father south. This will
also steer the moisture plume farther south, and away from Indiana
later this morning, bringing an end to the rain. Still abundant
clouds and moisture will remain, allowing for continued mostly
cloudy skies through the day. Forecast soundings suggest mid level
clouds remaining through the day. Thus will keep some ongoing pops
this morning, before trending toward a dry forecast this afternoon.
Given the clouds and north winds in place, will keep highs in the
upper 50s.

Tonight...

The upper trough axis will sag farther southeast, allowing for more
subsidence to arrive within the mid levels. Furthermore the high
pressure system over the plains will continue to build across
Indiana. Thus, dry weather will be expected with decreasing cloud
cover. Ongoing cold air advection should allow temperatures to fall
into the upper 30s to around 40.

Thursday...

Mainly dry weather will be found across southern parts of central
Indiana as the surface high and westerly winds continue to remain
dominate. Forecast soundings here show mainly a dry column. However
across the northern parts of the forecast area a quick moving short
wave moving through the cyclonic upper flow is expected to pass. Mid
levels suggest saturation during the afternoon, but lower levels
look to remain rather dry with dew points in the 30s. Thus at a
minimum increasing clouds will be found on Thursday as this wave
passes. Some sprinkles or very light rain showers resulting in 0.01
or 0.02 inches of rain could be possible. Will include some low
pops, but confidence for measurable rain is low. Warm air advection
will be starting, allowing warmer highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Cool and dry NW flow will remain in place aloft. Little in the way
of forcing dynamics appear to pass, while surface high pressure
remains over the southeastern states. This will allow for a warmer,
southerly flow of air to return to Indiana but the column will
remain dry. Look for partly cloudy skies then, with warmer highs on
Friday reaching the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday Night...

A weak short wave is suggested to pass on Friday night. This will be
our next best chance for organized rainfall. A weak surface trough
will accompany the the upper wave. Forecast soundings show the
arrival of deep saturation on Friday night with pwats reaching over
1 inch. A moderate 40 knt LLJ will also be present. Thus will
include at least high likely pops as these features pass on Friday
night.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Continued passing weather systems will bring chances for rain to
central Indiana nearly every other day during this period. Showers
may be lingering for a little while on Saturday morning as a cold
front and low pressure system that is expected to pass on Friday
night could be lingering through the morning hours on Saturday.
Otherwise, Saturday should evolve into a dry and warmer day. Ridging
and high pressure are shown to quickly set up east of Indiana on
Saturday, allowing a southerly flow of warm air to arrive.

Rain chances will return on late Saturday night and into Sunday as
yet another cold front and surface low pressure system will pass
across Indiana. Accompanying this low will be an upper short wave
providing ample dynamics. Forecast soundings suggest deep saturation
on late Saturday and into Sunday. Thus will use high pops and cooler
temperatures as these features pass.

Sunday Night into Monday will transition into dry weather as ridging
builds across the Rockies, resulting in lee side NW flow spilling
across the plains into the Ohio Valley. This will result in
subsidence and high pressure building across Indiana.

By Tuesday, the surface high drifts east of Indiana, allowing
warmer, southwesterly return flow to develop once again. A warm
front is suggested to pass through the afternoon. THis feature may
be capable of producing some light showers as it arrives as broad
lift is indicated.

Overall, temperatures will remain at or below seasonal normals with
the exception of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- None anticipated

Discussion:

Broken VFR ceilings are expected much of the afternoon based around
6kft or so, with winds from 290-300 degrees around 8-9KT. Winds will
relax a bit and become variable at a few sites tonight around 2-6KT
with some clearing, though some thin mid and high cloud will likely
persist into the night. This cloud cover and some light wind should
prevent widespread fog, though a brief drop in visibility near
sunrise at the outlying sites, particularly HUF/BMG where winds will
be lightest and rainfall was on the heavier side in the past 36
hours, cannot be entirely ruled out.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Puma