448
FXUS63 KIND 131950
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers possible through this evening.

- Cool conditions this weekend with below freezing low temps in the
  20s. Highs generally in the 40s to near 50.

- Dry weather returns this weekend through much of next week

- Warming trend begins mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Deep troughing remains over the Great Lakes with broad cyclonic flow
and cold temperatures aloft. Widespread stratocumulus persists as
broad lift within the cyclonic wind field works with abundant low-
level moisture. Showers can still be found over portions of southern
Indiana, but these are becoming less widespread as the afternoon
goes on. The best forcing is beginning to depart to the east, so
shower activity looks to remain very isolated through tonight.

Breaks in the stratocumulus have begun appearing due to drier air
working in from the north as well as the parent trough beginning to
depart east. Continued, but gradual, clearing is anticipated
tonight. Fetch remains off of Lake Michigan so a band of enhanced
cloud cover may persist well into the night and perhaps into the day
tomorrow. This band of clouds should gradually shift eastward with
time as winds become more west-northwestly.

Surface high pressure begins building into the region tomorrow.
Northwesterly surface winds continue, however, so stratocumulus from
Lake Michigan may linger as mentioned above. For the most part, the
bulk of our CWA will see clearing skies and decreasing winds.
Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side with troughing
aloft. The biggest difference will come during the overnights as
radiational cooling potential is maximized. Lows each morning
through Sunday morning may dip well into the 20s, especially in
rural areas. The biggest caveat is the residual cloud cover, which
could insulate the boundary layer and keep lows near 30.

Fog chances increase through this weekend as clearing skies become
more common. Lingering boundary layer moisture combined with an
increasingly subsident atmosphere should allow for the possibility
of patchy fog at times. However, lingering cloud cover remains a
mitigating factor at least through Saturday night.

Similar radiational cooling conditions exists into next week, just
with even less cloud cover. Lows in the 20s are likely Monday night
and Tuesday night. Despite the cool starts, each day looks to be a
bit warmer as ridging builds in aloft. High temps rise into the 50s
by Monday and potentially into the 60s by Wednesday. A weak system
passing to our north Thursday may lead to a brief bout of warm air
advection, pushing temperatures close to 70 by the end of the week.
Guidance is having a difficult time handling that system, however,
so the magnitude of late week warming remains in question.
Nevertheless, all indications point towards a warming trend next
week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers possible until this evening.

- Near MVFR ceilings this afternoon, possibly into this evening

Discussion:

Low pressure overhead continues to provide extensive cloud cover and
breezy northwesterly flow. Cloud cover begins to diminish though
MVFR ceilings could persist into the evening hours...especially
downwind of Lake Michigan. An isolated rain shower is possible from
LAF to IND this afternoon into the early evening. Cloud cover
decreases further overnight, becoming SCT though pockets of BKN
skies will remain. Skies are expected to become mostly clear on
Saturday.

Wind gusts this afternoon may approach 20 knots. Speeds should
remain between 10-15 knots this afternoon before diminishing during
the evening. Winds should remain elevated enough to limit fog
potential overnight. However, patchy fog at LAF, HUF, and BMG cannot
be ruled out.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff/SB
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff