282
FXUS63 KIND 270628
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
228 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with a warming temperature trend continues
  through the weekend.

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place over
Ontario with a trailing cold front across Lake Huron to Central
Indiana and Western KY. GOES19 shows thunderstorms ahead of the
front had advanced to the Ohio river while the rest of the forecast
area remained clear. Dew points across the area still remained
rather high, in the middle 60s, and some fog was beginning to form.
Aloft, water vapor shows strong ridging in place over the western
CONUS, and a deep trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes, resulting
in a highly amplified flow. Northwest flow and subsidence was found
across Indiana.

Today...

Models show the strong ridging over the Rockies continuing to slowly
build eastward. This will keep the northwest flow and lee side
subsidence in place, allowing strong surface high pressure to the
northwest to build across Indiana today. Forecast soundings show dry
air within the mid levels today, but do show signs of afternoon CU
development. Thus after morning fog burns off, mostly sunny skies
will be expected followed by a partly cloudy afternoon. Look for
highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Fog development will continue to need to be watched over night and
should dense fog become widespread, an advisory may be needed.

Tonight through Saturday...

Through Saturday, the upper ridging to the west continues to slowly
nudge eastward, keeping Central Indiana under northwest flow aloft
and ongoing subsidence. Mid level RH is very indicative of this,
showing low RH across the region through Saturday. Forecast
soundings tonight through Saturday show a very dry column with
unreachable convective temperatures. Thus mostly sunny days and
mostly clear nights will be expected. As the associated high
pressure system drifts east of Indiana by Saturday, southerly return
flow will begin to develop. Thus expect a warming trend in daily
high temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Hot weather looks to appear for the end of August and early
September across Central Indiana. Models are suggesting a strong
area of upper level high pressure setting up over the deep south,
with an associated ridge axis pushing north across the Great Lakes.
This looks to keep the main steering flow aloft well north of
Central Indiana, keeping any forcing dynamics out of our area.
Strong surface high pressure looks to set up over the southeastern
states extending east to Bermuda. This will result in a steady flow
of hot and humid air across Central Indiana. Surface temps are
suggested to easily reach the 90s each day with dew points surging
into the 70s. Early forecast soundings suggest 700mb temps in excess
of 12C, resulting in a cap with convective temperatures over 100F.
Thus at this point, diurnal storms are not in play, but this could
change as things progress and the eventual flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Impacts:

- Areas of MVFR fog and/or ceilings possible early this morning;
Otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms have exited south of the TAF sites. The associated
cold front was progressing across our state also, with light
northwesterly winds arriving in its wake.

GOES19 shows clear skies across the TAF sites, but dew point
depressions were already getting quite small. Patchy MVFR fog will
be possible overnight as light winds and clear skies will be
expected. Any morning fog will quickly burn off as heating resumes.

On Thursday, high pressure to the northwest will build across
Central Indiana, allowing for dry weather. Forecast soundings
suggest CU development due to to diurnal heating, and this will
result in some afternoon VFR Cigs.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma