983
FXUS63 KIND 202302
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River and stream flooding continues across southern portions of
  Central Indiana.

- Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before
  showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the
  holiday weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Large-scale troughing over the front range of the Rockies has placed
Indiana within broad southwesterly flow aloft. Subtle mid-level
disturbances have been embedded within this flow. Additionally, a
slow-moving cold front has been crossing Indiana from north to south
over the past day. All these factors combined has lead to prolonged
rainfall for much of the area.

Rainfall continues for most as of this writing, with some heavier
pockets noted south of the Indy metro. Rainfall totals overnight
were impressive in some areas, especially further south and west.
For instance, a pocket of 3-5 inches was observed in the Knox,
Daviess, Martin, and Greene County area. This has lead to flooding
along main stem rivers and smaller creeks and streams. Additionally,
minor overland flooding has been observed at times.

Most high-resolution guidance shows showers lingering at least
through the afternoon, potentially to as late as 8pm. After that,
the front exits to our southeast with surface high pressure building
in to our north. A chilly northeasterly breeze develops and a period
of below-average temperatures is anticipated to end the week.

Troughing persists to our west, however, so the overall weather
pattern is not expected to change much. Southwesterly flow quickly
reestablishes itself by Friday, with another embedded mid-level
disturbances lifting northward out of the lower Mississippi Valley.
A round of rain is likely across Indiana late Friday morning into
the afternoon.

The upper-level pattern continues into next week, with multiple mid-
level disturbances bringing on and off again rain chances Saturday,
Sunday, Monday and onward. These disturbances are hard to time,
since they depend on convective processes upstream that cannot be
resolved by medium-range guidance. As such, we will keep continuous
PoPs in the forecast for all of next week...capping them at chance
since the signal is modest at best.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Impacts:

- Rain ends at BMG by 04Z.

- Mainly MVFR ceilings overnight.

- Low VFR Cigs on Thursday.

Discussion:

A steady stream of upper level moisture remains in place over
southern Indiana and the Ohio River. This feature is expected to
drift east and exit the BMG area this evening. In the wake of the
rain, MVFR cigs are expected to develop tonight as northeast winds
across the area result in more clouds than fog overnight due to
mixing.

Forecast soundings on Thursday show saturation persisting within the
lower levels through the day, resulting in low VFR cigs. Easterly
winds will continue to persist through the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff