949
FXUS63 KIND 101810
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ending by
  early evening

- Dry this weekend with much warmer air returning by Sunday

- Chances for rain and storms returns through next week, with
  the potential for severe weather and renewed flooding

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Rest of This Afternoon...

A lack of decent moisture has kept shower coverage lower than
expected into early this afternoon. Although moisture is increasing,
am not confident that enough moisture will arrive to go with
anything higher than chance category PoPs. An isolated thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out, mainly south where temperatures have warmed into
the 70s.

Temperatures will fall north as colder air behind the front works in.

Tonight through Saturday...

High pressure will work in tonight, allowing for at least partial
clearing. Cold advection will bring temperatures down into the upper
30s north to middle 40s south. Far northern parts of the area may
dip into the middle 30s, but light winds should keep most if not all
frost at bay.

The high will keep conditions quiet on Saturday, but clouds will
increase again as warm advection kicks in aloft. Highs will be in
the 60s.

Saturday night through Sunday night...

A surface warm front will move through Saturday night into early
Sunday. Upper ridging will nudge into the area, keeping upper
support north of the area. While cannot rule out an isolated shower,
feel that odds are too low to mention.

Sunday night, a stronger upper wave will move into the area.
This will produce scattered to perhaps numerous showers along with a
few thunderstorms, mainly later Sunday night.

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Monday through Friday...

Southwest flow will continue aloft through much of this period, with
an upper trough across the western USA and upper ridging across the
southeastern USA.  At least into mid-week next week, high pressure
will be off to the southeast of central Indiana with a slowly moving
front to the west and northwest.

Uncertainty ramps up mid to late week next week as guidance differs
on when an upper trough will move east and allow a surface front to
move into or through the area.

The result will be in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Early in the week rain chances will from upper impulses moving
through the southwest flow aloft generating forcing. Mid to late
week chances will come from the potential from the upper trough and
front move into/through the area.

Temperatures will be well above normal with southwest flow
persisting through much of the period. Highs could reach the mid 80s
at times, depending on timing of any rain.

There is severe weather potential at times early to mid week as the
surface front gets into the area, with warm and unstable air ahead
of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1148 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered rain showers this afternoon with MVFR ceilings.
- Returning to VFR conditions tonight.

Discussion:

A cold front just north of the TAF sites early this afternoon will
slowly sag southward across central Indiana and the TAF sites
through the  rest of the day. As the front passes, MVFR ceilings, as
seen on upstream observations, are expected to pass across the TAF
sites. Radar returns across the area have been diminishing, but HRRR
suggests new development this afternoon as the front slides
southward and warmer and a bit more humid air amid max heating of
the day. Areal coverage of any precipitation should be light and
limited, so any prevailing showers are not expected for a great
duration.

As cold air advection begins, some MVFR cigs are expected to linger
this evening, as seen in upstream observations and forecast
soundings. Overnight, stronger high pressure over the upper midwest
along with the continued southward progress of the front will lead
to a return to VFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...50