786
FXUS63 KIND 101739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through early Wednesday afternoon

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A
  few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 236 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Dry and mild weather will continue through the first part of
Wednesday. Low pressure will track quickly across the Ohio Valley
late Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms accompanying a
cold front. In its wake...a cold continental airmass will spill into
the region as a deep upper level trough expands across the eastern
half of the country. Chilly temperatures are expected with the
chance for scattered light precipitation Thursday and Friday. As the
upper trough moves away to the east over the weekend...dry and
seasonable weather will return.

Today through Wednesday Night

Quiet conditions continue this morning with clear skies under broad
high pressure. 07Z temperatures were generally in the 40s with light
southwest winds.

A weak frontal boundary currently across the Great Lakes will move
south across the forecast area later today but will have little to
no impact on sensible weather. Little moisture is present along the
boundary with a shift to W/NW winds serving as the only signal of
its passage from mid morning into the early afternoon. The front
also will not take away from what will be another superb mid Fall
day with temperatures well into the 60s. Skies will remain clear
initially this evening but mid and high level clouds will increase
predawn Wednesday as a compact low pressure system moves into the
upper Mississippi Valley. Even despite the increase in higher
clouds...light and variable winds tonight will present a greater
potential for areas of fog to develop with the greatest risk likely
to exist over our northeast counties.

Southerly flow will increase quickly on Wednesday as a sharp wave
aloft associated with the surface wave approaches from the
northwest. A narrow axis of subtly higher dewpoints will be drawn
poleward along the attendant cold front and will approach the Wabash
Valley by mid to late afternoon. Surface heating will promote weak
instability with MLCAPEs rising to around 500 j/kg which should
promote a gradually increasing but broken line of convection by late
day that will shift across the area into the evening. The best
instability will remain closer to the Ohio River extending north
into far southern portions of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
isolated stronger wind gusts with a few cells in these areas
considering modest BL shear values peaking near 50kts...but poor
lapse rates will serve as an overall limiting factor. Showers will
shift to the east Wednesday night with the front...followed by
noticeably colder air in the post frontal airmass as cold advection
commences in concert with gusty northwest winds.

Temps...despite the passage of the weak front today...low level
thermals support highs warming into the mid 60s and across southern
parts of the forecast temps rising potentially into the upper 60s.
Wednesday will remain mild ahead of the approaching surface low and
cold front...with low to mid 60s anticipated.

Thursday through Friday Night

The coldest air of the Fall so far arrives for the latter part of
the week as the upper trough amplifies and settles over the eastern
part of the country. A sharp shortwave will pivot around the flank
of the parent trough on Thursday and interact with strong cold
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered
to numerous light rain showers focused especially across the
northeast half of the forecast area. The addition of brisk northwest
winds and broad stratus will make for a raw and unpleasant day
across the area with highs likely to hold in the 40s.

Subtle ridging Thursday evening will aid in decreasing shower
coverage but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region
Friday morning which will maintain at least a broken stratus deck
with the potential for renewed light precipitation. A more
pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan early Friday supports
the development of a more persistent north-south band of rain and
snow that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the
northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs
and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in
response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Low clouds will
slowly decrease from the west Friday night as the upper low swings
into the eastern Great Lakes and drier air begins to advect in from
the west. Low level thermals on Friday suggest 45 degrees is
probably the upper limit for a high and there is potential for much
of the northeast half of the forecast area to not make it out of the
lower 40s. This will set the stage for the coldest night of the Fall
so far Friday night with a hard freeze for the entire area as lows
fall into the mid 20s.

Saturday through Early Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
well into next week. Other than the potential for lingering
scattered diurnal cu on Saturday as the upper low moves away...
expect a return to mainly clear skies that will likely extend into
the middle of next week as strong high pressure settles over the
region. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming
trend with highs rising from the mid and upper 40s on Saturday back
into the mid and upper 50s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog tonight, IFR or worse possible.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the day Tuesday,
continuing into tonight. Patchy fog is expected to develop which may
lead to poor flying conditions...IFR or worse. The best chance of
fog is from IND to HUF. Lesser chances at LAF and BMG but still
enough to include as a tempo group.

Fog gradually dissipates after sunrise Wednesday with increasing mid
to high-level cloud cover ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. Eventually, a BKN to OVC mid-level cloud deck is expected
late in the day Wednesday around 22z-00z.

Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are likely
beginning just after the end of the TAF period.

Winds should remain light and variable, perhaps calm, overnight
tonight into Wednesday. Light southwesterly surface winds are
possible by mid day ahead of the approaching low.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Ryan