624
FXUS63 KIND 200054
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
854 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be around at times
  this weekend.

- An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible Sunday
  afternoon.

- Shower and storm chances persist for much of the time into
  early next week, with temperatures turning cooler next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface analysis this evening shows a weak surface front stretching
across Central IL to Central Indiana and then to eastern KY. A few
showers were found in NW Indiana drifting SE as mid level cloud
continued to overspread the state. The showers were making slow
progress SE.

Overnight, the wave associated with the showers is expected to push
east, keeping the precipitation mainly contained to the northern
parts of the forecast area. HRRR also suggests this, but tends to
keep most of the precipitation across northern Indiana. Overall,
ongoing forecast handles things well. Will continue to keep best
pops in place across the northern parts of the forecast area, albeit
they will remain at the lower end of the chance category. Overnight
lows in the lower 70s and upper 60s look on the mark.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of
central Indiana this afternoon, though modest instability and weak
shear is limiting coverage and intensity significantly. This
activity should largely come to an end this evening as heating is
lost, though a weak upper wave may allow a few showers to linger,
mainly north.

A slightly more substantial upper wave arrives Sunday, and will
promote scattered to potentially widespread showers and storms,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Modest
instability and deep layer shear may promote slightly better
coverage and a slight uptick in intensity tomorrow, and possibly a
small hail threat in addition to the localized strong wind threat,
and the continued heavy downpour threat.

Though the surface front pushes further south as we move into the
work week, a slow-moving upper level low will pass through the area
through mid week, with chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday, though chances should be
highest when diurnally favored/near peak heating.

High pressure in the wake of the upper low should bring mild and
pleasant weather to the area late in the week.

Temperatures will remain warm through Sunday, though the gradient
will be relatively strong with the surface front in the area. Once
the front is shuttled southward, temperatures through the remainder
of the period should be near to below normal, with highs largely in
the 70s and lows largely in the 50s from Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 603 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF Period.

Discussion:

Diurnal showers associated with a passing upper wave will diminish
this evening leading to VFR cigs overnight.

Another short wave is expected to pass on Sunday along with a
surface cold front. This will continue to bring VFR cigs through the
morning. HRRR suggests a few scattered light rain showers possible
across the northern half of the state, but confidence is low. Will
use a VCSH mention for now.

By late Sunday afternoon the surface front will have passed and
winds will become northerly. Models suggest cold air advection MVFR
CU arriving late on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Nield