077
FXUS63 KIND 301803
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 70s today with highs in the low 80s expected by
  Tuesday

- Wind gusts up to 30-35 mph today and 30-40 mph Tuesday

- Expect a more active and wet pattern late Tuesday through
  Saturday

- A few strong t-storms possible across northwest portions of
  central IN Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday night

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tweaked and slightly increased the temperatures and wind gusts for
today. Southwest winds and WAA should get central Indiana into the
mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Winds are already gusting to 25
to 30 mph which will continue through the day, reaching up to 35
mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Tuesday morning as
surface ridging remains across the region. The surface ridging
extends into the area from high pressure near the southeast coast
which will continue shifting east with time. A tightening pressure
gradient between the departing high and a developing low pressure
system near the Plains supports strengthening S/SW flow. This will
warm temperatures into the 70s by this afternoon. Deep mixing is
expected to promote gusts between 30-35 mph at times. Stronger winds
are likely Tuesday as the developing low pressure system approaches.
Look for gusts up to 40 mph during the day.

The quiet pattern comes to an end by late Tuesday once the
aforementioned system moves into the region. Guidance still shows
slight disagreement regarding the track and evolution of this system
leading to some uncertainty in the forecast. Models are coming into
better agreement though depicting a developing surface low moving
through the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, moisture advection and
daytime heating ahead of an associated cold front promotes
destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop roughly from
central IL northeastward to northern Indiana along the approaching
cold front by the late afternoon hours. These storms should then
eventually propagate towards central Indiana as the front pushes
southeastward.

At least modest instability and effective shear may support
organized convection Tuesday evening into the early overnight hours
across northwest portions of central Indiana. Isolated damaging wind
gusts and large hail would be the primary threats. Instability will
likely diminish in typical diurnal fashion given weak low-level
theta-e advection ahead of the front. This will limit the overall
severe threat if storms move in after sunset. The frontal boundary
is expected to stall near the area by Tuesday night. Localized
flooding becomes the main hazard overnight into Wednesday as
repeated rounds of storms are possible.

Confidence in the flooding threat remains limited due to diverging
model solutions, but the stalled boundary will keep precipitation
chances elevated through Wednesday night. Warm air advection should
warm temperatures into the uppers 70s and low 80s on Tuesday. The
aforementioned front and greater rain chances will then help cool
temperatures midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Thursday through Sunday...

Thursday through Saturday Night looks to be an active, warm and wet
pattern with dry weather arriving for Sunday.

Starting on Thursday, Models suggest a moderate upper wave just over
the plains, pushing forcing dynamics through the Mississippi
Valley. This upper wave will pass through the area on Thursday.
Meanwhile within the lower levels, low pressure and an associated
cold front looks to be approaching and passing on Thursday Night into
Friday. This will place central Indiana within the warm sector on
Thursday with warm southerly winds in place as the front approaches.
Given these ingredients and the approaching front, pops will be
needed by Thursday afternoon and Thursday Night, with highs in the
70s.

On Friday into Friday Night, little in the way of upper forcing
appears to pass within the flow aloft as weak ridging appears.
However within the lower levels the remnants of the previous systems
frontal boundary are suggested to be lingering across Central
Indiana. Given the lingering boundary and the continued arrival of
warm and humid air into the region, pops will still be needed on
Friday and Friday Night, but confidence for rain at that time
remains low due to a lack of organized forcing.

Our second upper wave arrives on late Saturday into Saturday night.
This moderate upper wave within the flow aloft will pass into the
Great Lakes on Saturday night into Sunday, again spreading ample
forcing dynamics across Indiana. A surface cold front will once
again accompany this feature, passing across Indiana on Saturday
afternoon into Saturday Night. There is better confidence for high
pops at that time due to the expected ingredient being present.

Subsidence and high pressure looks to arrive in the wake of the
front for Sunday. This should bring dry, but cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Impacts:

- VFR is expected during this TAF period.
- Gusty SSW winds of 25-30 kt through tonight and gusts up to 35 kt
tomorrow afternoon
- Rain may start by the end of the period at LAF and IND

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Rain may
arrive at the end of the period at LAF and IND which could have
lower vis and ceilings in heavier rain.

SW gusts of 25-30 kt will continue through today and evening gusts
of 20-25 kt overnight. Despite the gusts, there will still be a low
level wind shear threat from 03z-13z. Then, even higher gusts are in
the forecast tomorrow of around 35 kt.

Mostly scattered cloud deck through the period in the lower ranges
of VFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...KF