950
FXUS63 KIND 312317
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
617 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow developing late today through this evening will bring
  light accumulations focused especially along and northeast of
  Interstate 74

- Seasonably cold and dry over the next couple days

- Temperatures warming next week to well above normal

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

For central Indiana, 2025 will end with another round of light snow.
An upper level wave with an associated surface low will rotate
around an upper level low over James Bay late today and tonight. The
cold front with this wave will move south across the region late
this evening and tonight. As of mid-afternoon, the snow is still
over Lake Michigan and south Michigan, so still a a few to several
more hours before it will arrive into the forecast area. Still
looking to mainly see snow accumulations along and north of the I-74
corridor with this system and from a few tenths to up to around an
inch to possibly 1.5 inches in the far north. Elsewhere in the
forecast area, little to no accumulations is anticipated. Roads may
become slight with this lighter snow so take precautions if out and
about celebrating tonight. Tight pressure gradients will also be
associated with this front, allowing breezy conditions with gusts of
20-25 mph into the early morning hours.

Behind the front, tomorrow mornings low temperatures will drop to
the teens across the north and to the mid 20s across the south.
Highs tomorrow will range from the mid 20s to mid to upper 30s.

.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

The first half of the extended, namely this upcoming weekend, will
be characterized by near normal temps and quiet weather as deep
layer NW flow occurs on the back side of a longwave trough centered
over eastern Canada/CONUS and ahead of the upper ridge centered over
the Rockies/High Plains. A shortwave, emanating from the longwave
trough off the CA coast, is expected to shift eastward undercutting
the ridge and move into the lower MS valley/Srn Appalachians
Sat/Sun. Model blends/NBM remain in good agreement that the only
sensible impacts will some increase in high clouds Friday afternoon
lasting into Saturday morning with precipitation expected to remain
well south of the forecast area.

The second half of the extended will feature a warming trend with
temps climbing well into the 40s Monday and Tuesday and eventually
into the lower to middle 50s by Wednesday. GEFS and EPS are in
remarkably good agreement with the large scale pattern, both showing
about 8-10 deg C warm anomaly at 850 mb overspreading much of
eastern CONUS next week. Assuming a neutral adiabatic BL profile,
conservatively this supports high temperatures roughly 10-15F above
normal. Although the low level temps will remain well above normal,
the ensembles don`t quite show nearly the same anomaly at 500 mb,
with the upper ridge being suppressed some by several weak shortwave
troughs during the mid week time period. The NBM has introduced low
POPs for Tuesday night into Wednesday with the primary shortwave
trough passage. This seem reasonable given timing and strength
uncertainties this far out. For future reference and just beyond the
extended period there is a strong signal in the ensembles for a
significant longwave trough/cold front initiating a heavy
rain/thunderstorm event over the region late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 617 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings persisting through much of the night

- Light snow with MVFR to occasional IFR conditions this evening
primarily at KLAF and KIND

Discussion:

A quick moving upper level wave in tandem with a lingering frontal
boundary over northern Indiana will move across Central Indiana this
evening. Radar shows an area of light snow associated with the upper
disturbance streaking into NW Central Indiana. This light snow
should only impact IND and LAF. HRRR suggests the wave should exit
the area by 06Z-07Z, leading to and end of any snowfall at all
locations. However the lingering frontal boundary will remain across
the area on Thursday. This will lead to continued MVFR Cigs on
Thursday morning.

Surface high pressure will build across Central Indiana on Thursday
afternoon, leading to a clearing trend and a eventual return to VFR
conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Puma