865
FXUS63 KIND 071846
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for light showers later this afternoon into tonight,
  mainly across north Central Indiana.

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with numerous showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- Additional chances for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
  and again towards mid week, temperatures remaining near to
  below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

This afternoon through Sunday...

Quiet weather conditions are ongoing across central Indiana as
surface high pressure remains overhead. Current satellite imagery
depicts clear skies, but there is an enhanced area of cloud cover
and precipitation further northwest of the area associated with a
weak disturbance. This disturbance will move in later today into
tonight supporting a chance for showers. Very dry air in the lower
troposphere limits confidence on the potential for measurable
precipitation though, especially given dewpoint depressions are
around 20 to 25 degrees.

Any heavier showers that develop could saturate the pocket of
drier air in the lower levels through evaporative cooling so POPs
remain around 20 to 40 percent. A sub- severe strong wind gust
cannot be completely ruled out this evening as forecast soundings
show deep inverted V profiles. However, overall instability is
very weak which limits the threat.

Look for low rain chances to remain in the forecast through the
overnight as a weak boundary associated with the disturbance stalls
near northern portions of Indiana. A better chance for precipitation
is then expected on Friday once a slightly more organized system
moves through. Strengthening southwesterly flow in the low levels
will provide deeper moisture while a mid-level shortwave traverses
the region. This combined with a weak surface wave developing
supports the potential for numerous showers and isolated storms.
Severe weather is not expected due to weak instability, but a few
strong sub-severe storms are possible which could produce small hail
or gusty winds.

Precipitation will clear out from NW to SE Friday night as the
aforementioned system departs. Increasing heights aloft along with
weak surface ridging building in should keep weather conditions
quiet on Saturday. That said, a stray light shower cannot be ruled
out across northern counties. Breezy conditions are also expected
into the afternoon hours. Rain chances return to the forecast
Saturday night into Sunday following another subtle wave moving in.
Confidence is relatively low regarding the coverage or timing of any
precipitation due to diverging model solutions. Some guidance now
suggest the system may move out by Sunday morning with mostly quiet
weather during the afternoon. POPs will need to be refined in future
updates if models continue trend towards a quicker departure.

Warm air advection will allow temperatures to moderate through
Saturday. Look for highs to reach the 70s by Saturday before then
cooling into the 60s again on Sunday.

Sunday night onward...

Quiet weather conditions are likely through Monday with most
guidance depicting strong high pressure building in. Rain chances
return once again on Tuesday ahead of another low pressure system.
Coverage of precipitation and overall QPF amounts remain uncertain
this far out. One of the main caveats is moisture return appears
subtle ahead of the approaching system. An amplified shortwave
should promote surface cyclogenesis north of the area so light
precipitation does appear likely for at least parts of central
Indiana. This system is expected to depart on Wednesday supporting
drier conditions. Look for temperatures to gradually moderate
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated light showers possible this evening through tonight,
  mainly near LAF

- Sporadic gusts between 18-23 kt possible on Friday

Discussion:

VFR conditions will likely prevail across central Indiana
terminals into Friday morning. SCT/BKN mid clouds are expected
this afternoon through tonight. A few light showers crossing north
central IN later this evening into tonight may briefly impact
KLAF, but MVFR visibilities appear unlikely. Lower VFR ceilings
are possible by Friday morning around 040 to 060. Westerly winds
will become S/SW this evening into tonight. Look for sporadic
gusts between 18-23 kt on Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo