811
FXUS63 KIND 020114
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies gradually clearing tonight

- Dry weather through Friday with seasonable temperatures

- Next chance for widespread rain will be late Saturday into Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Sprinkles and very light rain continue to drift south through the
forecast area this evening as an upper level wave passes through the
region. 01Z temperatures varied widely from the mid 60s around the
Indy metro courtesy of the light showers to the upper 70s in the
lower Wabash Valley.

Despite the dry air present below 800mb sprinkles and light showers
have been able to drop trace amounts with a few spots recording a
hundredth of an inch. The area of light rain has already shifted
south of I-70 and will exit the southern counties around 03Z. Mid
clouds remain over the area but anticipate clearing skies into the
overnight from the north as drier air filters into the region.

Lows ranging from the mid 50s northeast to around 60 in the lower
Wabash Valley are supported well by low level thermals. Zone and
grid updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Overview.

A tranquil and pleasant start to meteorological summer is underway
across central Indiana. The primary takeaway for the week ahead is a
prolonged period of dry, comfortable weather with near-average
temperatures before widespread rain chances return by the upcoming
weekend. A mix of sun and clouds will give way to completely clear
skies by tomorrow as high pressure positioned north of the Great
Lakes maintains firm control of the regional weather pattern.

Tonight through Tuesday.

As a weak upper-level trough exits the region this evening, any
lingering mid-level cloud cover will dissipate during the overnight,
giving way to clear skies and quiet conditions towards Tuesday
morning. Latest model guidance shows strong atmospheric ridging
expanding from the central Plains into western Ontario in the
aftermath of the exiting system. This setup will induce subsidence
across Indiana, effectively suppressing cloud development and
keeping the column incredibly dry.

At the surface, the strong high pressure system situated to our
north will continue to advect cool and dry easterly flow into the
area. Excellent radiational cooling tonight will allow overnight low
temperatures to comfortably drop into the lower to mid-50s. On
Tuesday, ample solar insolation will easily counter the cool
easterly breeze, bringing afternoon maximum highs to near-seasonal
normals in the upper 70s.

Wednesday through Monday.

The extended forecast period features a gradual transition from a
highly stable regime to a warmer and eventually unsettled pattern.
Dry and sunny conditions will persist through Wednesday as the
primary ridge axis shifts overhead, pushing afternoon high
temperatures into the lower 80s. By Thursday and Friday, global
model ensembles indicate that the upper-level ridging will begin to
break down, shifting to a more west-to-east, or zonal, flow aloft.
Concurrently, surface high pressure will slide to the southeastern
United States, establishing a southerly return flow that will bring
a warmer and humid airmass into the Ohio Valley.

While a weak frontal boundary will approach central Indiana from the
northwest on Friday afternoon, forecast soundings indicate that
precipitation chances remain very low. Strong mid-level capping and
an atmospheric temperature inversion will limit available CAPE,
keeping conditions mostly dry through Friday evening.

The next opportunity for widespread rainfall and impactful weather
arrives on Saturday. Global models continue to struggle with the
broader synoptic pattern with differences on how quickly the
aforementioned ridge will break down which bring significant
uncertainty to the overall forecast. Generally trended the forecast
towards a drier solution for Saturday with models likely tampering
down the ridge a bit too soon without a strong system behind it.
This keeps rain chances fairly low until late Saturday night into
early next week.0

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 641 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Impacts:

- Northeast wind gusts peaking around 20kts on Tuesday

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

Mid and high level clouds associated with an upper level wave remain
over the region early this evening. Clouds will diminish from the
north overnight as high pressure expands across the Great Lakes.
Deep subsidence will advect into the area for Tuesday with mainly
clear skies expected. Northeast winds will become gusty at around
20kts late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...White