307
FXUS63 KIND 012310
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
610 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures will continue, with below normal temperatures
  likely to persist well into mid February

- Light snowfall possible Monday morning with a dusting to half an
  inch possible.

- Another round of accumulating light snow is possible on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Satellite imagery shows a weak clipper system diving southeastward
out of the northern Plains today. High clouds are already streaming
in from the west ahead of it. This system is expected to bring light
snowfall later tonight into Monday.

TEMPERATURES

First, temperatures tonight may be a bit tricky given the timing of
the aforementioned system. Some guidance suggests that high clouds do
not become thick enough soon enough to prevent a period of ideal
radiative cooling early in the night. Recent nights with such
conditions have ended up well-below guidance in terms of low
temperatures. With high cirrus already entering central Indiana we
do not expect ideal conditions to persist through the night.

However, it does appear that the cirrus may take long enough to
thicken to allow for at least partially effective cooling potential.
The most likely locations for this would be across our northeast and
eastern counties, where the cirrus will take the longest to arrive.
Sufficiently thin cirrus may not be as much of a hindrance as low
stratus. Therefore, we once again went below guidance on low
temperatures tonight but only across the northeast and eastern
portions of our CWA. Elsewhere, we went more with the general model
consensus for temperatures.

Increasing clouds and a light southerly wind should promote a
gradual warming during the second half of the night. As such, even
in the coldest areas temperatures likely reach their lows early in
the night before slowly rising.

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL

As mentioned earlier the clipper system looks to bring a period of
light snowfall to portions of central Indiana. There remains some
model uncertainty regarding amounts, with CAMs being more aggressive
and global models being lower overall. Regardless, almost every
model shows amounts under 1 inch, with the majority showing a
dusting to a half inch. We`ll lean towards CAMs for now, but not
completely...and our forecast will be for a dusting to a few tenths
of an inch. Of particular interest is snowfall timing which looks to
be around rush hour Monday morning. Snow flurries could persist well
into the afternoon as well given sufficient low-level moisture and
broad cyclonic flow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Global teleconnections continue to favor the current synoptic
pattern present over North America. Ensemble guidance shows a
positive Pacific North American pattern as well as a negative Arctic
Oscillation. Both of these favor ridging over the western CONUS with
troughing across the east. Such a jet stream configuration promotes
colder than average temperatures over Indiana.

Ensemble guidance, however, does show a trend towards at least
neutral conditions for both teleconnections by mid February. Scaling
down a bit, GEFS/EPS clearly show the ridge trough pattern describes
above through the next 7 days at least. Therefore, confidence is
fairly high for continued colder than average temperatures through
the Long Range period.

Troughing over the eastern US also favors drier than normal
conditions, mainly due to the prevailing storm track being from the
northwest. Systems in this pattern tend to be clipper-like with
limited QPF. Even so, each clipper may bring a period of light
snowfall with it. This looks to be the case for the coming week,
with the first clipper arriving tonight as described in the short
term discussion.

A second clipper arrives on Tuesday, and guidance shows some
interaction with a southern stream shortwave. Guidance is in good
agreement showing this interaction allowing for the formation of a
narrow but potentially potent band of precipitation. This band, in
conjunction with mid-level frontogenesis, could put down a couple of
inches of snow given its west-east orientation and west to east
motion. The exact position of this band is critical in forecasting
how much snow any particular location receives. Guidance has been
waffling back and forth but generally favors the southern half of
the CWA. We broad brushed Pops from about Indy southward, for now,
with the intention on refining the forecast as high-resolution
guidance comes into better agreement. Stay tuned for updates.

A third clipper looks to arrive later in the week. This system may
produce another opportunity for light accumulations Thursday night
into Friday, with some potential for additional flurries or lake
effect snow showers into the early portion of the weekend depending
upon the flow orientation in the wake of the system.

The continued intrusion of Arctic airmasses into the region will
keep temperatures below normal, sometimes well-below normal. If the
freezing mark is going to make it into Indy metro, it may be on
Friday ahead of the third clipper, though this will depend
significantly upon timing of said system, and there is a perhaps
substantial chance that guidance temperatures are too warm here. It
is entirely possible Indianapolis does not reach the freezing mark
until well into mid February.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Impacts:

- Light snow showers arrives overnight
- MVFR ceilings return Monday morning with brief IFR possible
- Light snow showers / flurries continue Monday afternoon

Discussion:

Increasing mid/high clouds will continue the rest of the evening
with light snow arriving between 06-09Z from west to east. Light
snow showers should continue through the morning while gradually
becoming more scattered and diminishing from the west after 18Z.
MVFR ceilings are expected to return with the snow as low-levels
saturate with IFR ceilings expected for a time mid- late Monday
morning into the early afternoon.

South winds overnight will become southwest and then west tomorrow
afternoon with the passage of an associated surface trough. Speeds
remain less than less than 10kt for most of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Nield/Eckhoff
AVIATION...Crosbie