268
FXUS63 KIND 131304
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
904 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through early Friday

- Daily rain chances begin Friday and continue into next week

- Much warmer this weekend with the first 90 degree day of the year
  possible next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Expect quiet weather conditions today as surface high
pressure builds in. Current surface analysis depicts the high
pressure system centered near the Central Plains which will
continue to shift eastward through the day. A modestly tight MSLP
gradient between a departing low pressure system and the
approaching high supports breezy conditions. Look for cooler
weather today due to cold air advection behind the aforementioned
low with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Overview.

Showers will come to an end over the next couple of hours as a cold
front exits central Indiana. In its wake, a shift to strong
northwesterly winds will bring a cooler and drier airmass for the
through Friday. High pressure dropping southeastward from the
northern Plains will build into the region with no hazardous weather
expected through early Friday. Daily rain chances start Friday
continue through the weekend with a near stationary front in the
vicinity. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning Saturday as highs
climb into the mid 80s. The pattern looks to remain active going
into next week with the potential for the first 90 degree day Monday
along with a low-end threat for severe weather.

Today.

As the cold front departs to the east early this morning, lingering
low-level moisture will maintain a deck of stratocumulus clouds
through the morning hours. However, rapid drying in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere will quickly erode this cloud cover, yielding
mostly sunny skies by midday. The main impacts during the afternoon
will be breezy conditions. High-resolution convective-allowing
models and statistical blend guidance suggest that a tightening
surface pressure gradient, combined with robust solar heating, will
induce deep boundary layer mixing. This mixing will efficiently tap
into stronger winds aloft, translating to widespread northwest wind
gusts up to 30 mph during peak afternoon heating. As colder air
moves in aloft, there could be a few afternoon showers across north
central Indiana but confidence is low. The incoming airmass will
establish a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient across central
Indiana. Areas across the northern portion of the state will
struggle to rise out of the upper 50s and lower 60s, while southern
and southwestern Indiana will see temperatures recover into the
lower 70s.

Tonight.

Winds will quickly diminish after sunset as the boundary layer
decouples and surface high pressure centers itself closer to the
Ohio Valley. A very dry airmass will settle over the region,
characterized by surface dew points dropping into the middle 30s.
The combination of clear skies, light to near-calm winds, and
exceptionally low atmospheric moisture will optimize conditions for
maximum radiational cooling throughout the overnight hours.
Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s across southern Indiana,
while northern portions of the forecast area are expected to drop
into the low 40s. Frost is not anticipated due to the dry air and a
slight lingering gradient wind, but very isolated areas of frost
cannot be ruled out in sheltered, low-lying rural locations across
north-central Indiana by early Thursday morning.

Thursday.

Surface high pressure and increasing heights aloft will provide
quiet but cooler than average weather. Highs will be in the 60s with
lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

Friday through Sunday.

Friday will have near to above normal temperatures, but well above
normal readings will move in for the weekend behind a warm front.
Highs in the middle to upper 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday,
especially if rain coverage and clouds are not widespread as
discussed below. Dewpoints rising into the 60s will make it feel
more humid as well.

An upper wave will bring chances for showers and some thunderstorms
late Thursday night into the first half of Friday, although some
uncertainty remains on the timing.

Friday night into Saturday night, upper waves along with the warm
front will bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty on timing is higher here, but better instability in the
afternoon and evening hours should help coverage then.

On Sunday, heights will rise locally as upper troughing deepens in
the western USA. This will help limit coverage of rain, but rain
cannot be ruled out with the available instability.

Parameters may become favorable for a few severe storms into the
weekend, and some analogs/machine learning agree. However, given the
uncertainties, confidence is low in anything specific.

Monday and Tuesday.

Chances for rain will increase into Tuesday as the upper trough and
a surface cold front move into the area. Very warm temperatures may
continue, especially Monday where the first 90 degree day is
possible. One failure mode for the higher temperatures would be if
the cold front arrives sooner and rain coverage ends up being higher.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 552 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Impacts:

- Northwesterly gusts up to 25kts 15Z to 00Z
- Low chance for MVFR cigs at LAF and IND 15Z to 21Z

Discussion:

Rain has come to an end with winds beginning their shift to the
northwest. Skies are expected to continue to clear over the next few
hours before cooler air aloft allows of an expansive cu field
towards the afternoon. There may be some MVFR cigs depending on the
coverage of cu with the best potential for MVFR towards LAF.
Isolated showers will also be possible, but chances are too low for
a mention in the TAF at this time. Northwesterly winds are expected
to gust upwards of 25kts at times beginning around 15Z with gusts
ending towards 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White/50