068
FXUS63 KIND 090818
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 35-45 mph possible this morning, especially further
  north.

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms ending early this morning.

- Cloudy and mild on Friday

- Rain showers to snow showers Saturday night, colder Sunday...near
to slightly above normal readings next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 318 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface low pressure around 990mb is passing just north of Chicago
as of 07z. A strong southerly low-level jet, between 60-80kt (925mb-
850mb), has lead to rapid expansion of warm moist air northward.
Much of central Indiana has warmed into the mid 60s through the
night so far. Continued warm moist advection is anticipated until
the low`s surface cold front pushes eastward into Indiana around 10-
12z.

Scattered convection is ongoing ahead of the front, albeit with
little lightning activity. Storms appear too shallow and updrafts
too weak for lightning at the moment. ACARS soundings out of IND
show generally moist adiabatic lapse rates through about 600mb,
above which very dry air is noted. With large-scale forcing being
displaced just to our north, little in the way of severe weather has
been reported. This trend is expected to continue as forcing remains
weak and warm moist advection becomes less effective with time. A
stray severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, however, as very strong
flow associated with the LLJ remains just above the surface. It
would not take much to bring some of this momentum to the surface.

Outside of convection, synoptic wind gusts have been strong as well.
Gusts between 35 to 45 mph have been common across the region
tonight. Some locally higher gusts up to near 50 mph have been
reported as well, though these have not been widespread. The
marginally stable boundary layer has largely prevented such winds
from being more of a problem. A second period of gusty winds looks
probable immediately behind the cold front, especially further north
closer to the departing low. Magnitude of wind gusts is tricky, with
high-resolution guidance suggesting 35 to 45 mph gusts once again.
Most guidance shows the MSLP gradient rapidly diminishing, however.
This should limit the duration of strong winds to just a few hours
this morning. By early to mid afternoon, most locations will see
gustiness quickly decrease.

As mentioned above, temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s.
These values are very likely the high for the day, and its all
downhill once the front arrives. As such, our forecast will show
highs in the 60s but keep in mind that is likely occurring very early
or has already occurred. Most of the region will see temperatures
dropping into the 40s today. By tonight, low temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

A strengthening upper level low will dive into the upper Midwest
Saturday and serve as the catalyst to reintroduce a more typical mid
winter pattern for the region as it carves out a deep bu t
progressive trough over much of the eastern part of the country for
late this weekend. A quasi northwest flow regime aloft will briefly
modify temperatures through midweek before an increasingly amplified
pattern aloft highlighted by a ridge west and trough east by late
next week.

There is potential for brief clearing of clouds Friday night
as drier air passes through the Ohio Valley before thicker mid and
high level cloudiness quickly expands back over the region in
advance of a cold front. Signals hinting at the deepest moisture may
split central Indiana with an area closer to the front and low
pressure over the northern Great Lakes and a broad area with a
secondary low tracking across the southeast U S. Highs Saturday will
remain in the 40s with temps falling by late day as the cold front
passes. This lack of more appreciable moisture will limit coverage
and keep rainfall light on Saturday. Any lingering light showers will
transition to light snow Saturday night and Sunday but again the
lack of an overall deep moisture profile will limit precipitation to
flurries or scattered light snow showers as the trailing upper low
pivots across the region. It will be noticeably colder Sunday with
highs struggling to reach the freezing mark and brisk W/NW winds
holding largely in the teens.

High pressure will move from the central Plains to the Carolinas
early next week as lower upper level heights retreat back north in
the wake of the trough aloft shifting east. This will enable a quick
recovery in daytime highs recovering into the mid and upper 40s on
Tuesday. Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday as another
front swings through with colder air returning in its wake. Could
see light snow in the backwash of this system as well Wednesday
night and Thursday. The bigger impact beyond Wednesday will be the
potential establishment of a broader and more extended period of
colder than normal conditions that is likely to last beyond the
extended and into Week 2 as the aforementioned amplified upper level
pattern develops across the country. There are hints as well in the
7 to 14 day period of one or more opportunities for more impactful
winter weather.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1252 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Impacts:

- Robust southerly winds gusting up to 30-40KT through 11Z
- VCSH to include possible brief RA through 11Z
- MVFR/VFR ceilings into pre-dawn...MVFR CIGs return by 12Z-15Z

Discussion:

Broad mild/humid warm sector ahead of cold front approaching from
Missouri will continue to host gusty southerly flow under MVFR/VFR
ceilings through pre-dawn.  Slowly rising dewpoints will promote
increasing coverage of -SHRA from west to east...with potential RA
and even TSRA through 10-11Z.  Ceilings may vary between MVFR and
VFR with slight improvement or even brief scattering-out around the
10Z to 13Z timeframe...before widespread MVFR prevails through most
of the daytime hours.

South-southwesterly winds gusting up to 30-35KT, and possibly 40-
45KT in any stronger -SHRA/lone TSRA...will then veer through
westerly directions this morning before finally diminishing through
midday/ afternoon hours.  TAF period to end amid light winds with
generally VFR CIGs...before IFR expected on Saturday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM