999
FXUS63 KIND 231026
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
626 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today with a warming trend through the workweek.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday Night.

- Cooler on Friday, with a warming trend resuming over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Brisk northerly flow continues behind yesterday`s cold front. North-
northwesterly winds between 15-20kt gusting to 30kt have been common
through 06z. These winds are expected to remain brisk through
sunrise, though very gradually decreasing with time. Winds continue
to diminish through the morning and into the afternoon, remaining
above 10kt however. Winds diminish more substantially after 00z as
surface high pressure builds in from the north.

Low stratus currently blankets central Indiana within the post-front
environment. Clouds stick around through the morning hours, and
likely into the afternoon. Clearing is anticipated, albeit slowly,
as surface flow transitions from cyclonic to anticyclonic.
Additionally, diurnal mixing should help break up cloud cover to
some extent (from OVC status to SCT/BKN stratocumulus) but may also
allow it to persist through the afternoon. Low clouds should clear
completely by 00z with high cirrus building in around the same time.

Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be much cooler than
yesterday, by as much as 40 to 50 degrees. Cold air advection
continues within the brisk north-northwesterly flow. Highs today are
expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows tonight should dip
into the upper 20s/low 30s under good radiative cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Anomalous ridging out west combined with low-amplitude troughing
over the northeast will promote progressive northwesterly flow aloft
across the Midwest. This pattern has allowed for variable conditions
with periods of above-normal warmth interrupted by brief but potent
cold fronts. This is expected to continue, as the cold air mass
behind yesterday`s front will already be moderating by the start of
the Long Range.

Surface high pressure slides east of Indiana on Tuesday, with winds
taking on a southerly component by the afternoon. Combined with
strong sunshine and modest warm air advection aloft, temperatures
are expected to rebound into the mid to upper 50s, possibly near 60.
This trend continues into Wednesday, though at an accelerated rate
due to a strengthening low-level jet. Highs may climb into the upper
60s/low 70s Wednesday afternoon.

MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

The low-level jet reaches peak intensity late Wednesday night into
Thursday. Some models are hinting at a subtle shortwave arriving
Wednesday night. Combined with isentropic lift from warm air
advection and surface convergence at the nose of the LLJ, these
models show isolated convection developing before sunrise Thursday.
Instability appears low, which would limit updraft intensity...but
shear is plentiful and long straight hodographs suggest a non-zero
hail risk.

The pattern then repeats again with another strong cold front
modeled to drop south late Thursday. Temperatures may once again
push 80 degrees across the region before the front arrives. The
synoptic set up is actually very similar to yesterday. Strong
warm/moist advection, broad synoptic-scale forcing, with moderate to
high levels of shear and instability. This all points towards
another round of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for
severe weather, late Thursday.

Guidance is already trending towards anafrontal convective
development, with elevated storms intensifying behind a shallow but
strong cold front surging southward. Details still need to be ironed
out, including timing and how steep mid/upper-level lapse rates are
which will determine storm intensity behind the front. Shear is
plentiful, and given the elevated nature of modeled convection it
would appear large hail is again the primary hazard.

THIS WEEKEND ONWARD

Another significant cool-down is likely by Friday with highs back
into the 40s/50s. As with previous iterations of this pattern, the
cool-down is short-lived and a warming trend begins again over the
weekend. Temperatures may once again push into the 60s/70s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Impacts:

- NNW winds gusting to 20-30kt before 15z Monday
- MVFR ceilings through 15z Monday

Discussion:

Brisk northerly winds continue behind a cold front that passed
through earlier Sunday. Winds out of the north-northwest are
sustained between 15-20kt gusting to 20-30kt at times. These winds
should gradually diminish this morning but remain above 10kt with
gusts to 25kt at times. Winds diminish further during the day Monday
while gradually gaining a northeasterly direction by 00z. Winds
become easterly by Tuesday morning as surface high pressure builds
in to our north.

MVFR ceilings extend across central Indiana with a few breaks
appearing on satellite as of 10z. Overall, a BKN to OVC sky is
expected through 15z. After that, slow improvement is expected as
low-level flow becomes anticyclonic. High cirrus is expected at
times overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff