121
FXUS63 KIND 210203
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1003 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through the weekend, with near record
  highs on Sunday

- Showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday, a few strong to
  severe storms cannot be ruled out.

- Mostly dry and warmer than average conditions expected next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Forecast is in good shape and only minor adjustment were needed. The
main adjustments were tweaks to the winds to better match current
observations as the weak cold front makes it`s way through central
Indiana. As of 10 PM, the front has made it through 2/3 of the
forecast area, and should pass to the south by midnight. Wind gusts
have finally started to back off and winds should continue to
decrease overnight as high clouds move in. Overnight lows in the 40s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad but weak low
pressure over SE MI while much stronger high pressure was found over
the southeastern states. This was resulting in westerly surface flow
across central Indiana along with a moderate pressure gradient. A
cold front trailed from the low, stretching across southern MI,
southern WI to IA. Aloft, strong high pressure and ridging was found
over the western CONUS, and this was resulting in lee side NW flow
spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley. Ridge
riding clouds were streaming across Indiana within this northwest
flow aloft. These high clouds were found in the water vapor imagery
as Pacific moisture. Temperatures were in the upper 60s early this
afternoon and should reach the lower and middle 70s by late
afternoon.

Tonight and Saturday...

The strong ridging over the western CONUS
found in the upper pattern is expected to flatten tonight and on
Saturday, however the quick flow over this ridge will keep any cold
air intrusions away, along with keeping a flow of mild, Pacific air
flowing across the northern parts of the United States and spilling
SE toward the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile within the lower levels the
cold front to our northwest is suggested to push across our area
this evening as the low pressure system to the NE Pushes toward New
England. Forecast soundings while this front passes shows limited
lower and mid level moisture, and no precipitation is found along
the front. Thus will trend toward a dry frontal passage with just
some passing high clouds through the night. As winds become
northerly thus evening cold air advection is minimal as only a
glancing blow of cold air passes mainly across the Great Lakes.
Thus expect lows mainly in the 40s.

On Saturday, high pressure will quickly arrive in the eastern Great
Lakes, once again allowing for the return of warm southerly lower
level flow. Again, forecast soundings remain dry, with subsidence as
the predominate feature. Thus only some high passing clouds within
the quick flow aloft will be expected. Highs should once again reach
the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Primary focus for the long term is on Sunday`s potential for near
record high temperatures, gusty winds, and thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front - including a fairly conditional threat for
severe storms.

Blended guidance continues to suggest high temperatures will make
the 80s across a significant portion of central Indiana on Sunday.
82 is the record for the date at Indianapolis, set in 1907.
Potential for afternoon convection and slightly earlier arrival of
the front introduces uncertainty here.

Additionally, steep low level lapse rates and a fairly deeply mixed
boundary layer will promote momentum transfer from stronger flow
aloft. Wind gusts midday into Sunday afternoon outside of any storm
activity will likely approach or even exceed 30 MPH at times.

Though upper level support will be modest, good convergence and some
low level moisture pooling along the approaching boundary may allow
for thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening. A
midlevel inversion at the base of an elevated mixed layer, as well
as PBL mixing promoting some near surface drying with time, call
into question whether deep, moist convection will occur, or if it
does, the degree of coverage, but any storms that form and persist
will have access to plentiful deep layer shear, and would likely
become severe. Instability profiles are likely to be concentrated in
the midlevels in an environment with midlevel lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km, tending toward a large and locally very large
hail threat, particularly early prior to any upscale growth
occurring. A damaging wind threat would be present as well given
significant midlevel dry air, especially as storms coalesce with
time.

Dry and substantially cooler conditions will return for the early to
mid portion of the work week in the wake of the front, though
temperatures would likely only return back to near to a bit above
seasonal normals.

The next opportunity for precipitation looks to hold off until late
in the week as a stronger area of low pressure organizes to the
northwest, though significant guidance differences exist here.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Impacts:

- Winds shifting through the period

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Low pressure
will drag a cold front across Central Indiana at the very beginning
of the period, allowing winds to shift from the west-southwest to
the north. A few gusts will still be possible for the first couple
of hours, then drop off through the night.

Forecast soundings through the period remain dry within the mid and
lower levels. Thus only high passing clouds will be expected this
TAF period due to the northwest flow aloft. Winds will subside to
around 5 kt by the morning. High pressure will then move through,
further shifting winds throughout Saturday. Winds will generally be
out of the east in the morning, out of the south by the afternoon,
and finally out of the SW by the end of the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...KF