875
FXUS63 KIND 150758
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
258 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering snow showers early this morning across our northern
  counties.

- Gusty winds 20-30 mph with wind chills dropping to near zero this
  morning. Winds diminish through the day today.

- Light accumulating snow tonight into Friday morning, up to an
  inch or two possible.

- Locally heavy brief snow showers possible Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Well-below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week
  with subzero wind chills at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Deep troughing have moved across Indiana over the past 24 hours
bringing much colder weather and occasional snow showers. A few snow
showers continue across our northeast, associated with a lengthy
lake-effect snow band off of Lake Michigan. This activity may
continue on and off through morning across our northern counties.

Strong northwesterly winds continue between 15-20 mph gusting to 30
mph. This should diminish with time as transient shortwave ridging
builds in from the west. Skies should begin to clear as the
subsident shortwave ridge arrives. However, high clouds will begin
arriving later in the afternoon associated with a second deep trough
immediately behind it.

This trough approaches the region tonight, inducing cyclogenesis far
to our north over Lake Superior. Strong mass reponse will allow
winds to become southwesterly with relatively strong (but brief)
warm air advection. Temperatures may not drop all that much
tonight from the prior day`s high temp.

Snowfall Potential...

Of particular interest is precipitation potential in the form of
snow. Isentropic lift associated with the brief bout of warm air
advection along with favorable dynamics aloft (exit region of jet,
vorticity advection), will allow for a period of snow after about
02z tonight. Given the fast-moving nature of the system amounts
should be light, generally a coating (south) to an inch or two
(north).

Snow should end Friday morning with warm air advection continuing.
Temperatures may warm up to near 40 on Friday before an even
stronger Arctic front arrives Friday night. Snow shower potential
returns coincident with the front`s arrive and within the unstable
post-frontal environment. Model snow squall parameter is quite high
between 1-5 across much of Indiana. As such, few heavier snow
showers are possible which may lead to quick drops in visibility and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Last bit of the short term`s light snow to linger into Friday
morning before readings creep above freezing Friday afternoon.  This
will be the last period with near-normal temperatures before a broad
and deep upper trough descends over most of North America through
the solid majority of the long term...effortlessly providing
prolonged frigid, subfreezing mid-winter conditions.  Associated
arctic air mass to plunge down the Plains through the early workweek
and cross the Midwest around the Tuesday night timeframe.  At least
moderate confidence in a reinforcing, smaller area of surface high
pressure to maintain cold advective flow into Indiana through the
remainder of the mid-week... under an eventually modifying, zonal
upper pattern.

Through this arctic outbreak, the hemisphere`s effective north pole,
sporting a mere 480 dm 1000-500 mb thickness...is progged to curl
from northwestern Ontario across Lake Superior and to Maine during
the Monday to Wednesday timeframe.  This will all translate to
readings over central Indiana easily 10-15 degrees below normal from
Saturday through at least Tuesday night.  Many locations north of
the I-70 corridor will not climb out of the teens Sunday-
Tuesday...while widespread single-digit minimums can be expected for
at least two overnights.

Weaker surface low pressure lingering near Lake Huron will likely
provide enough of a surface gradient with the arctic ridge to
provide light to moderate breezes over the region, with winds
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times...especially around the
early work week when the broad upper trough`s western short wave
crosses the Midwest.
Moderate certainty in widespread subzero wind chills on multiple
nights from Saturday night to Tuesday morning...with Advisory
criteria possibly on the table for northern Indiana.

At least scattered no-impact snow flurries can be expected through
the arctic outbreak, as is usually the case across the CWA in such
cold/troughy set-ups.  Likely also a period of better-organized snow
showers when the cold air first arrives Friday night into Saturday,
when the conditionally unstable thermal profile should be saturated
in the dendritic growth zone around the 800-700 mb layer.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR stratus possible this morning, especially from LAF to IND
- NW winds gusting to 25kt at times through 12z
- Snow arrives after 04z tonight with reduced visibilities

Discussion:

Stratus has been diminishing except immediately downwind of Lake
Michigan. Some of this stratus may meander westward overnight
towards LAF and IND. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

NW winds continue to be brisk at roughly 10-15kt gusting to 20-25kt,
though the trend has been gradually diminishing with time. This
trend should continue through the morning and into the afternoon.
Winds become SSW tonight ahead of an approaching storm system,
rising to over 10kt by the end of the TAF period.

The aforementioned storm system will bring a round of light snow with
reduced visibilities. A more steady snowfall is expected this time
around compared to the scattered snow showers yesterday. Light snow
will continue until the end of the TAF period, ending shortly after.
Ceilings may become MVFR at times during the period of snowfall.
Additionally, visibility may become briefly reduced more than what
is explicitly shown in the TAFs. A Tempo group may need to be added
during subsequent updates once guidance comes into a better
consensus on timing and intensity.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Eckhoff