533
FXUS63 KIND 291713
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1213 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday,
  with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several
  degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Potential for a light dusting of snow south of a Terre Haute to
  Seymour line this evening

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid
  week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and
  Wednesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over the upper midwest. Low pressure was found over OK. The
surface high was nosing SE, across IL to central Indiana, resulting
in light to calm winds across our area. GOES16 shows an area of mid
and high cloud over IA and northern IL, drifting SE and elongating
within the flow aloft. Broad cyclonic flow remained in place aloft
over Ontario, influencing the flow aloft over the NE quadrant of the
CONUS.

Ongoing forecast appears in good shape. Another quiet and cold
afternoon is expected as the surface high to the northwest is
expected to continue to build across Indiana. Forecast soundings
show dry lower and mid levels with some saturation arriving aloft
through the day. This suggests the cloud cover upstream will advance
across our area through the day, resulting in increasing cloudiness.

Temperatures will be similar to persistence with a similar cold air
mass in place. Highs in the upper teens and low 20s appear on the
mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Another quiet and cold night is in process across central Indiana,
with 2 AM temperatures mostly ranging from around 10 above to nearly
10 below, and significant variation over short distances, as is
common over a deep snowpack.

Increasing mid and high cloud in the latter half of the night,
continuing into the daytime, will serve to both slow cooling a bit
and limit diurnal warming today, keeping highs similar just a bit
below persistence despite increasing thicknesses, around the mid
teens to low 20s.

The diurnal range will continue to be limited by cloud cover
tonight, though the persistent snowpack will again allow lows well
down into the single digits, with some areas again getting below
zero.

Models depict an area of weak midlevel frontogenetic forcing on the
northern periphery of low pressure passing well to the south late
today into tonight, which is coincident with a moist dendritic
growth zone over southern portions of the region, primarily during
the evening hours into the early overnight. Will carry low PoPs
during this time - low level dry air will be a complicating factor,
though this should be overcome eventually allowing at least some
light snow to make the ground. Any snow that falls should be light,
fluffy, and fairly dry - a thin coating of a tenth or two is
certainly possible with minimal liquid equivalent.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Cold continues through the long term but relief, albeit quite
relative, is finally in site with highs returning to the 20s next
week. This weekend will provide one last blast of frigid air and the
chance for flurries at times. Highs will be in the teens Friday and
Saturday with lows near 0. A short wave passing through will produce
just enough wind to potentially drop wind chills back into advisory
criteria Friday night so one last headline may be needed. The wave
could also bring chances for flurries periodically this weekend, but
moisture will largely be lacking thanks to blocked Gulf moisture and
nearby surface high pressure.

Going into the new week, the highly amplified trough is expected to
finally break down, becoming more zonal and allowing for a warmer
southerly flow at times. Parts of the area could even creep into the
30s around midweek with lows in the teens. Models remain in decent
agreement of another trough passing through that could bring
additional snow midweek, potentially accumulating snow. Beyond this
system, the upper pattern hints at a cold airmass stretching back
into the area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the period. High pressure at
the surface across central Indiana will lead to light and
variable winds for much of the afternoon.

Mid and high clouds will increase through the afternoon as a weak
storm system passes well to the southwest. Winds will respond by
becoming more northwesterly and then northerly by this evening. Wind
speeds will generally be well below 10KT.

Lake effect clouds from 030-040 will begin to push south into
northern terminals tomorrow morning. A few flurries are possible but
but will exclude from the TAF for now.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Crosbie