474
FXUS63 KIND 152301
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
601 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusts up to 35 mph possible through this afternoon along
  with near record warmth

- Mostly dry the rest of the weekend with increasing rain chances
  Monday night into Tuesday

- Additional rain chances Thursday into Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Latest surface analysis shows a low pressure system centered near
the northern Great Lakes with a cold front extending southwestward
towards Illinois/Missouri. Warm air advection ahead of the front
will continue to promote enhanced cloud cover through the afternoon.
A few showers cannot be ruled out as the front pushes through this
evening, but weak overall forcing is likely going to keep most of
the area dry.

Temperatures are well above normal today due to the strong
southwesterly flow. Much of central Indiana is already in the 70s.
Near record highs are likely with Indianapolis expected to reach 73F
which is one degree shy of tying the record.

Expect quiet weather tonight into Sunday as surface high pressure
builds over the region behind the departing cold front. The MSLP
gradient between the surface high moving in and the departing low
pressure system will allow breezy conditions to persist into Sunday
for at least the NE half of central IN.

Low Minimum RH values around 20-25% are also likely during the
afternoon due to deep diurnal mixing into a much drier airmass
aloft. This may lead to some fire weather concerns, but fuels remain
above critical levels which should help limit the threat. Cold air
advection will lead to much cooler highs in the low-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Sunday Night through Monday Night...

Mainly dry and warmer weather will be expected during this time as
strong ridging in place over the plains continues to provide NW flow
aloft over Indiana along with subsidence. Time heights show a very
dry column through this time. At the surface strong high pressure
will be in place, stretching across the upper midwest, across
Indiana to the deep south. Given the cooler air mass in the wake of
the front, temperatures will get closer to more seasonal normals.

Tuesday...

A quick moving short wave is expected to arrive on Tuesday along
with a warm frontal boundary that will set up across southern
Indiana. The arrival of these two features will bring good rain
chances to Indiana on Tuesday. Forecast soundings show deep
saturation arriving through the day, with pwats around 1 inch.

Wednesday...

Lesser chances will be in place on Wednesday as the upper wave will
have departed to the east, limiting forcing. Models suggest the
surface frontal boundary will shift slightly to the south, reaching
the Ohio River and KY. Cool high pressure across the Great Lakes at
this time will keep a dry and cool NE flow across Indiana. Thus any
precip chances will be less than Tuesday with cooler temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...

Chances for rain will continue to persist through this period. Models
suggest an active upper flow with a strong trough over the plains,
ejecting dynamics at Indiana on Thursday, before the main, strong
trough axis passes on Friday. The warm front will surge north on
Thursday as an associated area of surface low pressure pushes
northwest of Indiana. This will place Indiana within the warm sector
on Thursday night before the cold front passes on Friday. All of this
leads to continued rain chances. Thunder cannot be ruled out on
Friday. By Saturday, high pressure will try to build across the area
from the west, but progressive southwest flow will still be in place
aloft. Time changes of the previous passing systems could impact
this also. Thus continued low chances for rain may be a viable play
here.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 601 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Impacts:

- Wind gusts around 20kt into the evening for some sites
- Gusts near 25kt return Sunday

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the period. A cold front will
be near or just south of KBMG by valid time. West winds will become
northwest there early in the period. Otherwise northwest winds will
continue tonight at the other sites.

Some gusts near 20kt will persist for at least the first quarter of
the period, especially at KIND/KLAF. During the day Sunday, gusts
will return to all sites, with gusts near 25kt possible.

Some patchy lower VFR clouds near KBMG will move out early. Clear
skies are expected Sunday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...50