937
FXUS63 KIND 031741
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
141 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and
  storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall
  and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening into
  Saturday; damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows
  in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or
  freeze conditions possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A weak cold front has entered Indiana from the northwest, following
a potent surface low passing to our north last night. The front is
quickly losing steam, and has slowed to a crawl over our
northwestern counties. High-resolution guidance show this front
progressing as far as perhaps Indianapolis before lifting northward
as a warm front.

Most guidance depicts showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon along the front. Model soundings show sufficient CAPE,
between 1500-2500 J/Kg, but little in the way of large-scale lift.
As such, convective activity this afternoon looks to be scattered in
nature. There may be enough shear (30kt) for some loose organization
into clusters or even brief supercells. Hodographs show some
curvature in the low-levels. Severe potential is low, overall.
Should a supercell form, however, it may pose a severe risk with all
hazards possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An active pattern persists for central Indiana into the weekend with
a few more rounds of showers and storms expected. Early this
morning, a line of isolated showers is moving across parts of the
area, but these are not expected to do much other than a few strikes
of lightning and should diminish again by daybreak.

Another surface low will track NE of the area later today and
tomorrow, forming a few additional periods of showers and storms
that could be strong to severe at times. Central Indiana will
generally stay within the warm sector today, providing a warm moist
environment. Models are in decent agreement that the associated warm
front will set up near or over our northern counties and drift
northward as the low approaches. Model soundings show some capping
over the area into midday before diurnal heating eventually erodes
it. Increasing instability and modest shear could support strong
to severe storms this afternoon into evening with damaging winds
and hail being the main threats.

As the low continues its NE track over the Great Lakes, the
associated cold front will then slowly push eastward across central
Indiana Saturday. Along the front is yet another line of showers and
storms will impact the area. Saturday`s rain is expected to be
heavier by comparison and could lead to isolated flooding concerns
but generally less than an inch is expected at this time. Some
storms could be strong to severe, particularly in the afternoon to
evening hours, but confidence is low at this time. Showers should
push out of the forecast area by Sunday morning. Behind the cold
front, cooler temperatures return while the influence of high
pressure to the west further pushes rain away. Sunday and Monday
will only see highs in the 50s while lows are expected to drop
into the 30s. Depending on just how low the temps get Sunday
night, frost could be a concern in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Strong Canadian high pressure will dominate the area during the
early to mid portion of next week, with a significant cooldown
(along with frost/freeze potential), and dry weather likely
continuing through at least Wednesday.

Morning lows will likely drop into the low 30s Tuesday morning, and
mid 30s Wednesday morning. Each day could see frost depending upon
overnight winds, potentially damaging sensitive emerging vegetation,
and Tuesday morning may see a freeze - a few upper 20s readings
would not be out of the question.

As we move later into the work week, strong low pressure is likely
to pass through James Bay and north of the Canadian Maritimes, with
an extensive, elongated frontal boundary extending
west/southwestward from this low back to the central Plains, and
stalling out somewhere in or just north of the region. This will
reintroduce chances for showers, and perhaps a few storms, though
warm advection will help to moderate temperatures significantly by
the latter part of the work week.

Fluctuations of the front and indications of another chain of upper
level disturbances as we get into the week 2 period suggest a return
to active weather is possible again for mid April. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 20-30kt possible throughout the TAF period
- Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening
- Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday morning
  into afternoon.

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings this afternoon. MVFR or lower on Saturday with
rain/storms.

A warm front is lifting north across Indiana and breezy
southwesterly winds have taken hold. Winds should range from 10-15kt
with gusts between 20-25kt at times. Speeds decrease a bit overnight
to around 10kt while becoming more southerly. A return to
southwesterly is anticipated Saturday morning. Winds continue from
the southwest until a cold front arrives late Saturday afternoon
with a wind shift to westerly.

Most guidance shows showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along
the warm front. However, this activity will be scattered in nature.
Timing these showers/storms for any particular terminal will be
tricky, so a Tempo group was added to cover the most probable time
frame.

A stronger line of storms associated with the cold front arrives
Saturday morning. Rain is likely, with embedded thunderstorms. A
prob30 was included for thunderstorms with reductions in visibility.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff