287
FXUS63 KIND 120530
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
130 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few t-storms tonight, gusty winds possible

- Dry and seasonable Wednesday through Friday

- Warming trend this weekend and into next week, above normal
  temperatures likely

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Overview.

Surface high pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes
continues to dominate the weather pattern across central Indiana.
This feature is providing clear skies, light winds, and comfortable,
near-normal temperatures. Atmospheric moisture profiles remain quite
dry, ensuring a quiet night ahead with excellent radiational
cooling. Rain chances then arrive tonight as a low-pressure
disturbance over the northern Plains tracks eastward. Dry and quiet
weather is then expected through the early weekend when the next
upper level wave brings low rain chances.

Tuesday through Wednesday.

The primary focus for impactful weather arrives Tuesday night as a
cold front sweeps through the region. High-resolution forecast
models indicate that mid and high-level cloud cover will thicken
during the afternoon and evening hours today ahead of the
approaching boundary. Widespread rain showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected to overspread central Indiana tonight,
persisting into the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Meteorologically, moisture transport will improve as low-level wind
profiles shift to the southwest ahead of the front late today. Any
severe weather potential is heavily constrained by a lack of
atmospheric instability. Despite the lack of robust instability,
strong winds aloft within the lower kilometers of the atmosphere
could be efficiently transferred to the surface. Consequently, the
main hazard with these showers will be sporadic, sub-severe wind
gusts, along with brief heavy downpours and lightning.

Precipitation will taper off rapidly from west to east on Wednesday
morning as the cold front departs. Strongly building high pressure
behind the front will clear out remaining cloud cover by Wednesday
afternoon. Cooler, drier air filtering into the region will keep
daytime temperatures near or slightly below seasonal averages, with
highs generally resting in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday through Monday.

A prolonged period of tranquil and increasingly warm weather is
expected late this week and through the early weekend. Surface high
pressure will firmly establish itself over the Ohio Valley on
Thursday and Friday, promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and
highly favorable outdoor conditions.

By the weekend, a significant shift in the upper-level atmospheric
pattern will take place. Both global deterministic models and
ensemble clusters exhibit strong consensus regarding the
amplification of a prominent upper-level ridge of high pressure
across the eastern half of the United States. Strong warm air
advection on the backside of the departing surface high will draw an
unseasonably warm airmass into Indiana. High temperatures are
projected to climb from the low 70s on Friday into the lower to mid-
80s by Saturday through Monday, which is well above normal for the
middle of May.

While a few individual model simulations attempt to introduce
isolated showers over the weekend via weak, localized atmospheric
disturbances, ensemble means suggest that the capping influence and
sinking air associated with the building upper-level ridge will
suppress most convective development. Furthermore, low-level
moisture return looks quite subtle, which will limit the fuel
necessary for shower production. Therefore, the forecast maintains
only 20-30 percent chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind shift from north to southwest towards daybreak
- MVFR to briefly IFR vsbys due to SHRA after 03Z
- LLWS after 03Z
- Southwesterly gusts up to 20kts after 17Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Cigs will
gradually fall during the day today as upper level moisture begins
to increase ahead of likely rainfall late this evening into tonight.
Earliest chances for rainfall look to be around 01Z at LAF with
chances increasing through 04Z. Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys will be
possible at times with cigs expected to remain VFR. There may also
be a few rumbles of thunder, but confidence is too low to mention in
the TAF at this time. In addition to the rain, a strengthening LLJ
will introduce LLWS from 03Z onwards. Rain chances then look to end
towards 09Z with cigs around 050. Winds will gradually shift from
the north to east to southwest through the night with southwesterly
gusts up to 20kts during the afternoon and overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White