363
FXUS63 KIND 190523
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend with near Heat Advisory conditions by
  Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Adjustments were made to the latest forecast, mainly to POPs and
winds overnight. Convection has mostly subsided across central
Indiana as stronger forcing shifts east. Latest KIND radar imagery
and surface observations show a few storms lingering across the far
southeast. These storms will move push east shortly with the
potential for additional redevelopment later tonight.

Overall forcing is relatively weak, but lingering moisture and weak
forcing may promote scattered showers or a few storms at times. The
best chance would be near or south of I-70 where slightly stronger
forcing and deeper moisture will align. Look for temperatures to
bottom out near dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s tonight. Winds are
already diminishing across northwest portions of central Indiana.
Due to this, the Wind Advisory in effect will be allowed to expire
at 10PM EDT.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Buoyant low levels, low LCLs, and sufficient low level shear
continues to support a tornado threat late this afternoon. The
greatest threat will be associated with surges/RIJs within the QLCS,
and with discrete or quasi-discrete shallow supercells over southern
Indiana. Midlevel speed maxima enhanced by the upstream MVC will
enhance shear further over the next couple of hours. One potential
negative to a more robust tornado threat may be weakness in
hodograph aloft and poor venting.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE BETWEEN 1PM AND 9PM...

THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON

 A strong MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) has developed overnight
from yesterday`s convection and is currently located over east
central Missouri. This feature will be enhanced by a shortwave
trough aloft, strengthen further, and track northeast through the
afternoon. Latest ACARS soundings out of IND show a fairly stable
boundary layer with only modest lapse rates aloft. However,
instability will increase as the near-surface layer continues to
warm. The hodograph is long and slightly curved in the 0-3km layer
and quite messy above that.

Going forward, as mentioned above, continued surface warming will
lead to a very unstable air mass by this afternoon ahead of the
approaching MCV. Guidance is generally within the 2000-3000 J/Kg
MLCAPE range, with a few members even higher. Of particular note is
the abundance of near-surface instability due to a very moist
boundary layer. Guidance shows 3CAPE values between 100-200 J/Kg
across the majority of our area by 18z.

STORM MODE AND HAZARD TYPE

With a stronger MCV materializing, greater mesoscale forcing for
convection will likely be present in addition synoptic-scale forcing
from the shortwave aloft. Additionally, greater backing within the
surface wind field is expected as one heads northwest (closer to the
low center). This backing may act to locally enhance curvature
within the low-level hodographs, leading to an increased tornado
threat.

In the low to mid-levels, the strong MCV is acting to enhance the
low-level jet which may reach 45-55kt as low as 925mb. With steep
boundary layer lapse rates anticipated, it would not take much to
mix these winds to the surface. Should any cold pools form and help
convection organize into lines or line segments, then RIJ
enhancement may lead to a more widespread / significant wind threat.

As for large hail potential, given weakness within the 500-250mb
flow this may not be that widespread. Still, given the amount of
CAPE present and fairly high ELs (10-12km), some isolated instances
of severe hail are certainly possible.

Our primary severe hazard today will depend on storm mode. Shear
vectors are oblique to a wind shift that extends southwest from the
MCV/low center. Combined with relatively weak flow aloft, a linear
to quasi-linear mode is preferred with the potential for some
discrete storms in the open warm sector. With abundant low-level
shear and moisture, a tornado threat is present especially as one
nears the MCV center and along a pseudo warm front extending to its
northeast. The tornado threat may occur in discrete storms as well
as within linear elements...especially if low-level flow can align
in such a way that promotes mesoscale circulations. Strong to severe
wind gusts are likely to be the primary hazard today given the steep
low-level lapse rates and intense LLJ, combined with
enhancement from potential cold pool dynamics.

In addition to the above hazards, flash flooding will be possible
should any storm training occur. Recent rainfall has lead to quicker
flash flood response times. A broad non-convective wind threat may
evolve on the southwest and south side of the departing MCV. Some
members of guidance show wind gusts between 40-50kt across our
northwestern counties later this afternoon. A wind advisory may be
needed across these areas later on.

TIMING

With the low/MCV now apparent, CAMs have come into better agreement
regarding timing. Activity may reach the Indiana/Illinois line as
early as 1pm, traversing Indiana during the afternoon hours before
exiting into Ohio around 9pm. Storms may linger a bit longer across
our south as the MCV lifts northeastward and the trailing boundary
slows.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Thursday will see an exiting upper wave and seasonable temperatures.
Some lingering showers and storms could still be around in the
morning, or even a few isolated pop ups in the afternoon, but
largely expecting most of the rain to have come to an end by
daybreak Thursday.

The end of the week and into the weekend high pressure both aloft
and near the surface will be building, tracking from Texas and then
centering over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Heat and humidity will
dominate the long term as highs Saturday through mid next week will
be around 90 to 93 degrees and dewpoints persistently in the 70s.
With heat indices likely getting to above 100 for several days, it
is probably that heat advisories will be needed.

A few models are showing that isolated afternoon storms could be
possible given the heat and humidity, but would expect the high
pressure in place would be enough to suppress any showers or storms.
Chances for rain are looking better towards mid-next week when the
high pressure shifts further east, weakening over central Indiana.
Looking beyond the long term, hot, humid conditions are expected to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings (IFR at LAF) expected later tonight into Thursday
  late morning/midday

- A few showers or storms early in the period at a few sites

- Wind gusts in the 15-20KT range Thursday afternoon from 280-300
  degrees

Discussion:

As an upper trough passes through the region overnight, a few
lingering showers or storms may impact some of the sites early in
the period, followed by widespread MVFR ceilings (IFR likely at
LAF). The ceiling restrictions will last through late morning/midday
before VFR returns at all sites.

During the afternoon hours Thursday, west/northwesterly wind gusts
can be expected at times in the 15-20KT range. These gusts will
subside in the late afternoon/evening in typical diurnal fashion.

Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow night
across the area. This may allow for some patchy fog formation given
good radiational cooling conditions, though this is far too
uncertain for inclusion at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Nield