851
FXUS63 KIND 121947
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
247 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers through tonight, possibly mixed with
  snow tonight into Friday.

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible this evening into tonight.

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low pressure currently resides over western Pennsylvania with broad
cyclonic flow extending throughout the Great Lakes region. Broad
lift combined with multiple subtle surface troughs are leading to
scattered showers this afternoon. With cold air advection ongoing
aloft and steepening lapse rates, precipitation has been convective
in nature. There have been a few reports of graupel at times. Mixed
precipitation will remain possible overnight as temperatures
continue to cool.

Additionally, fetch off of Lake Michigan is maximized with
northwesterly flow. This could allow for an enhanced band of
precipitation extending into the northern or northwestern portions
of our CWA. Some snow may mix in especially within this lake band
tonight into Friday morning.

Winds remain elevated as the MSLP gradient around the low remains
tight. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible through tonight.
These winds should gradually diminish tomorrow as the low pulls
away. Cloud cover may linger well into the afternoon and evening
hours on Friday as cyclonic flow maintains enough weak lift to
support stratocumulus.

As for temperatures a small diurnal spread is anticipated due to
wind and cloud cover. Highs today in the 40s will drop into the 30s
overnight. Temperatures rebound into the upper 40s again on Friday.
Skies clear over the weekend which will allow the temperature spread
to widen. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to dip
into the 20s both Friday night and Saturday night.

One caveat to the temperature forecast Saturday and Sunday is
lingering northwesterly flow. A narrow band of cloud cover extending
downwind of Lake Michigan may persist so long as the fetch remains
off the primary axis of the lake. These clouds will insulate the
boundary layer keeping lows closer to 30 compared to the mid 20s
elsewhere. Based on the expected wind field, this temperature
uncertainty is greatest across our northeastern counties.

Monday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
for much of next week. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into
the Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to
quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of
next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming
trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of
next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s
through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and
lower 30s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous showers this afternoon continuing into
  tonight

- Gusty northwest wind this evening, gusts around 25 kt possible

- MVFR ceilings expected most of the day and into tonight. IFR
  possible after 04z.

Discussion:

Northerly flow continues behind a cold front that passed through
central Indiana last night. The low pressure system responsible for
the cold front is located to our east now. Cyclonic surface flow
remains in place. Multiple subtle surface troughs are pivoting
around the low, causing winds to oscillate between west-
northwesterly and northerly. Winds speeds between 10 to 15 kt with
gusts 20 to 25 kt can be expected through tonight.

Additionally, broad lift and fetch off of Lake Michigan will lead to
scattered showers at times through this afternoon and into tonight.
Showers may briefly lead to reduced visibility. Some snow may mix in
as well, especially near LAF overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected
to expand in coverage and lower overnight. IFR conditions are
possible after 04z to about 16z Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Eckhoff