704
FXUS63 KIND 100259
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1059 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/t-storms possible late this afternoon and
  overnight. Isolated flooding possible.

- Humid and very warm Wednesday and Thursday. Storm chances
  Wednesday Night.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with lower rain chances

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Large convective line continues to push across central Indiana. A
well defined cold pool/mesohigh has become established across areas
generally along and north of I-70. Strengthening low level jet, as
noted by increasing 1 km winds on the Evansville VWP up to 45
kts in the last hour, will continue to support increasing mass
convergence into the outflow boundary extending across SW portions
of central Indiana.

Surface based inhibition has become well established across central
Indiana. This will continue limit any additional severe wind threat
and diminishment of the convective line over eastern portions of
central IN through 04Z. 3000 j/kg of MUCAPE over SW portions of
Indiana will aid in sustenance of ongoing convection with robust
updrafts and heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary threat.
as noted on satellite and radar imagery over SW portions of central
Indiana into the low level jet will support an increasing flooding
threat with storm total rainfall amounts possibly exceeding 4-5
inches by morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows warm and humid SW flow
in place across Central Indiana. A weak and small surface low was
found over WI and Lake Michigan, with a warm front extending south
into eastern IL. A few thunderstorms were developing along this
boundary, pushing east toward Indiana. Water Vapor shows this weak
ripple/disturbance within the flow over IL and MO. The warm and
humid air mass remains in place across Central Indiana.

Tonight...the upper wave and surface front is expected to push
across central Indiana. This in combination with the warm and humid
air mass in place across the area will lead to showers and
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and into the evening
once again. HRRR suggests best development chances and propagation
within the 23Z-04Z time period as forcing dynamics begin to interact
with the 2000-3000 J/KG of CAPE across Indiana. Thus will use high
pops for this afternoon and early evening. Convection should remain
to the south of Central Indiana overnight, focusing where the
remaining new boundary will likely reside. Again, given our very
warm and humid air mass heavy rain will be possible that
could result in localized flooding.

Wednesday...in the wake of the warm front, warmer temperatures are
expected to arrive on SW winds. A much drier column is suggested
to arrive on Wednesday as ridging is expected to build aloft.
Forecast soundings show attainable convective temperatures, but a
mid level inversion and 700mb temps near 11.5C should provide and
effective cap. Given the warm air mass and excellent mixing
expected, highs in the lower 90s will be expected.

Models are signaling for rain chances on Wednesday night as a weak
wave of forcing, possibly and MCS, could pass through the area.
Confidence is low for this as the wave of forcing appears broad and
weak, and models are differing on propagation after initiation that
is expected over IL. For now will include pops until a better
consensus is reached. Another warm and humid night with highs in the
lower 70s will be expected.

Thursday...Another hot and humid day will be expected as another
weak ridge is expected to pass within the flow aloft. Southwest flow
aloft suggests no forcing and a weak thermal ridge ahead of an
approaching cold front is expected to reside over Indiana. Again,
forecast soundings show very high 700mb temperatures and a cap. Thus
another hot and humid summer day will be expected with highs in the
lower 90s.

Friday Through Tuesday...

A cold front will be pushing across Central Indiana on Friday
morning. This feature looks to be accompanied by an upper trough,
providing ample forcing while a warm and humid air mass remains in
place within the lower levels. Shower chances will continue to be
needed.

On Saturday and Sunday, more of zonal flow come into play across
Central Indiana. In the wake of the cold front, strong high pressure
builds across the southern plains, quickly allowing the return of
south and southwesterly flow into Central Indiana. This should
result in dry weather on Saturday. A quick moving cold front
arriving overnight on Sunday may result in some lighter showers and
storms, continuing through the morning hours, before Canadian high
pressure builds dry weather in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures
will arrive in the wake of the front that will persist on Sunday
through Tuesday.

Models still trying to include some pops on Monday and Tuesday, but
the signal remains weak. Flow aloft suggests a mainly zonal flow
with perhaps a weak short wave passing on Tuesday. At the moment
better chances look to be on Tuesday with the weak short wave and
perhaps an approaching surface warm front from the southwest.
Uncertainty here remains high.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 818 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Impacts:

- Showers and Thunderstorms with strong gusts over 40 kts and
brief IFR conditions this evening gradually ending from NW-
SE overnight.

-Gusty SW winds from 20-23 kt Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion:

Convective line will move across the terminals through 03Z with
brief IFR conditions and wind gusts over 40 kts possible. There
is some indication that a few storms may linger or redevelop at KBMG
between 03-07Z so have opted to keep VCTS til 07Z.

In the wake of the convective line, winds will be mainly S-SW 5-10
kts with primarily VFR conditions into morning.

SW winds will increase by early Wednesday afternoon with gusts
from 20- 23kts until late afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma