912
FXUS63 KIND 140202
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1002 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely tonight into Sunday with a
  marginal risk of severe weather.

- Much cooler temperatures Sunday night through Monday night with
  highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

- Tuesday-Thursday: overall seasonable warmth/humidity...with
  potential for multiple rounds of unsettled weather.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mostly quiet weather conditions are ongoing across central IN this
evening. A subtle impulse brought light showers to portions of the
area earlier, but lingering dry air and surface ridging limited
coverage greatly. Precipitation chances were lowered tonight given
trends in observations. Latest guidance has also trended towards
lesser coverage. Isolated showers or a few storms are still possible
overnight with weak ascent and sufficient moisture in place. Look
for rain chances to gradually increase into Sunday ahead of an
approaching shortwave and associated cold front. Temperatures will
remain mild overnight as dewpoints remain well in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Rest of Today...

Several MCV`s over IL will shift eastward into IN late this
afternoon. Mesoanalysis a narrow axis of SBCAPE from 1500-2000 J/KG
associated with return moisture (dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s) across eastern IL. A few thunderstorms currently over IL
associated with the lead zone of WAA may make it into western IN
before weakening. Have carried showers with chances TS across
western zones this afternoon to account for this activity. There
is a narrow zone of stronger flow and potential for strong to
marginally severe TS in far SW zones. However in this area recent
satellite and radar imagery shows extensive cloud cover and light
elevated showers, so threat appears to be fairly marginal.

Thunderstorms over the Central Plains forming along a cold front
will shift eastward towards central Indiana. Forecast soundings show
little in the way of instability (MUCAPE less than 1000 J/KG). As
a result, convection is expected to be primarily showers with
some widely scattered thunderstorms. Marginal instability should
limit any severe threat, despite all of central Indiana remaining
in a marginal risk overnight.

Tonight....

Thunderstorms over the Central Plains forming along a cold front
will shift eastward towards central Indiana. Forecast soundings show
little in the way of instability (MUCAPE less than 1000 J/KG). As
a result, convection is expected to be primarily showers with
some widely scattered thunderstorms. Marginal instability should
limit any severe threat, despite all of central Indiana remaining
in a marginal risk overnight.

Sunday....

Surface front will push through central Indiana during the late
morning and Tonight into mid-afternoon period. Copious amounts of
clouds and light precip to start the day with remnants of
overnight convection will limit destabilization. There does appear
some sweet spot with convective redevelopment potential in SE
zones. Some of the RRFS cam guidance has showed this area as a
region of strong convection between 18-20Z. Day 2 SPC outlook
keeps IN out of any severe risk, but given the aforementioned
potential, there does appear to be some severe risk, albeit
marginal. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures and humidity
will slowly fall.

Sunday Night through Monday Night...

In the wake of a cold front, pleasant late Spring weather will move
into the region associated with high pressure. Highs in the 70-75 F
range and lows in the 50s will be 5-10 degrees below normal.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Late spring upper-level cut-off low will continue to spin near
northern Ontario, promoting a broad zonal trough off lowered heights
across the CONUS` north-central quadrant.  Indiana should be a
battle ground of sorts with corresponding warm/stationary frontal
boundary established near Midwest...focusing gradient between strong
deep moisture near Ohio Valley and any short wave energy sliding
eastward within the zonal flow.  Lower confidence in conditions for
any particular 12-hr period, yet potential certainly exists for at
least occasional moderate to very heavy rainfall, at least scattered
severe weather, and flash flooding.

Tuesday will begin the transition back to a more active pattern,
albeit still pleasant for mid-June with only upper 70s and 50s
dewpoints expected...ahead of a wave from the northwest that will
bring likely showers and possible thunder, especially into Tuesday
night.  Peak storm/severe potential to follow Wednesday into early
Thursday as strengthening low pressure to our west increases frontal
gradient near the area and pumps precipitable water aloft to 1.50 to
2.20 inches.  Lower certainty on how upper forcing will swing over
the local area, but heavy rain / flash flooding and at least
isolated strong/severe winds are on the table...with potential for
greater coverage of severe storms if mid-level vort better targets
central Indiana.

Canadian cut-off should shift its lobed structure going into late
work week...pushing the mid-week system to the Northeast, allowing
at least modest surface high pressure to descend across much of the
eastern two-thirds of the US.  A return to at least a couple periods
of WNW flow should bring more reasonable warmth/lower humidity to
end the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance for -SHRA through 01Z
- Additional low chance for -SHRA late tonight with greater chances
  between 14-19Z Sunday
- MVFR ceilings likely after 08-11Z Sunday
- Wind shift to northwesterly within 10Z-16Z Sunday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight. Isolated
showers could develop overnight, but confidence is low so only
included VCSH mention at times. Better rain chances are expected
Sunday with an approaching mid-level system around 14-19Z. MVFR
ceilings are also expected by 08-11Z and persisting through about 18-
20Z before lifting. Brief IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

Look for light S/SSW winds under 10 kt tonight. Winds then turn NW
and increase in speed Sunday morning with a cold front moving
through. Occasional 18-22kt gusts are possible.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Crosbie/AGM