233
FXUS63 KIND 060248
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
948 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light rain possible tonight into Friday, mainly north

- Cool temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend, with
  lows near freezing Saturday night and Sunday night

- Highs return to the 60s early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Have updated forecast to reflect recent radar trends of greater
leading edge sprinkles/light rain showers and additional activity
moving in from central/northern IL associated with cold front.
Changed wording from chance to coverage PoPs given the showery
nature with ongoing activity and expected SE movement across areas
generally north of I-70 in central Indiana. Drier air in the lower
levels across areas south of I-70 will limit overall coverage and
therefore have more isolated wording of showers or sprinkles for
these areas late tonight with the cold frontal passage.

Other noticeable change was to bump up northerly wind gusts behind
the cold front with gusts to 20 mph based on modest 2-3 mb pressure
rises noted to the north. These conditions expected across many
locations by sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 202 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Friday...

Clouds covered the northwest half or so of the forecast area this
afternoon, with mostly clear skies southeast. Under clouds, readings
were in the 50s, with 60s in sunshine.

As an upper trough and surface cold front approach the area, the
clouds will gradually overspread all of central Indiana into this
evening. Best forcing with this system will be north of central
Indiana, closer to the heart of the upper system. Moisture isn`t
great, but the system may be able to squeeze out some light rain as
it moves through.

Will generally cap PoPs at the chance category tonight, with the
highest PoPs north.

On Friday, colder air flowing in from the northwest will generate
some lake enhanced showers across northern Indiana. Some of these
may sneak into the far northern forecast area, so will have some low
PoPs there. Otherwise, cold advection should aid in keeping skies
mostly cloudy.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs on Friday in the lower
50s thanks to cold advection and lack of significant sunshine.

Saturday onward...

Central Indiana will remain in northwest flow aloft, with upper
systems moving well to the north or south of the area. Moisture will
be kept south of the area, so any weak forcing that does move into
the area will have nothing to work with. Will continue a dry
forecast into mid-week next week.

Temperatures will start out cool in the 50s this weekend, but then
moderate into the 60s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 619 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional wind gusts between 18-20kt at KLAF overnight and
all terminals Friday late morning and afternoon.

- MVFR conds spread across terminals overnight, with brief IFR
vis/ceiling possible at KLAF.

- Drizzle and/or light rain developing this evening becoming VCSH
early Friday morning.

Discussion:

Recent radar imagery shows an expansion of very light rain/drizzle
occurring over western portions of Indiana, ahead of mid level storm
system moving through IL. As a result, drizzle conditions were added
through roughly 03Z at all the terminals except KBMG.

In the wake of this initial drizzle/light rain band, a band of light
rain will increase in coverage ahead of a cold front that will be
pushing southward across the terminals overnight. Roughly a 3 hr
window of light rain is expected with ceilings lowering to lower end
MVFR. There may even be a brief period of IFR ceilings/vis at
KLAF, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include with this TAF
issuance. Behind the front, winds are expected to gust 15-18kt
with the strongest being at KLAF. Shower activity will continue to
stream southward from Lk. Michigan in the wake of the front, so
have opted to carry VCSH to account for this activity through mid
morning.

Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR by late morning with gusty
winds from 18-20kt expected during the late morning/early afternoon
as breaks in the overcast support greater mixing of stronger winds
aloft towards the surface.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...50