222
FXUS63 KIND 120204
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Cooler weather arrives for Thursday and Friday.

- After today, the next best chance for rain will be Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Central Indiana will finish transitioning back to early spring chill
tonight...as the mesoscale pattern over the region trends from
cloudy and breezy cold frontal zone...to mostly clear Canadian high
pressure.  Higher stratus will continue to slowly lift over the next
couple hours before likely scattering out for most locations by the
early overnight.  Robust northwest breezes will take a bit longer to
drop...with gusts to 20-30 mph slowly diminishing from west to east
through pre-dawn.  Dewpoints will help guide temperatures falling
through the 30s...with lows by 12Z around 30F for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon morning shows low pressure
over SW Ontario. A cold front extended southwest from the low across
Central Indiana, near a MIE-IND-south of HUF line. Radar continued
to show scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front over southern
Indiana. More stratiform rain was found in the wake of the front.
Water vapor across the CONUS shows a moderate trough in place across
the plains states, with moist southwest flow ahead of the trough
streaming into the Ohio Valley.

An isolated severe storm through late this afternoon cannot be ruled
out as radar trends show development across southern Central Indiana
within the warm sector. Main threat would be damaging straight line
winds.

Tonight...The forcing associated with the upper trough is expected
to exit west tonight, allowing the precipitation across the area to
end. This however will take until 22Z to 24Z per the HRRR trends.
Strong cold air advection in the wake of the trough will allow for
the arrival of low stratocu through the evening as forecast
soundings show moisture trapped beneath an inversion aloft.
Furthermore, winds will begin to subside this evening as the strong
LLJ departs and the pressure gradient becomes weaker. Thus will keep
some ongoing pops through the afternoon hours and into the evening,
before skies just become cloudy. Overnight, forecast soundings
become dry due to stronger subsidence across the area and will trend
toward a partly cloudy sky overnight. Lows around 30 will be
expected in most locations.

On Thursday through Friday...a colder pattern will be in place as
the upper flow becomes more northwesterly. Some weak upper ridging
is hinted at on Thursday. The ridging is better within the lower
levels on Thursday within the lower levels as strong subsidence will
be in place and high pressure builds across the area. Thus will
trend toward a mostly sunny day with cooler highs around 50 on
Thursday.

On Thursday Night and Friday low pressure is suggested to be moving
across the Great Lakes but best forcing and moisture looks to remain
well north of Central Indiana. Forecast soundings show saturation
aloft, but dry air within the lower levels through the night and
into Friday. Additional subsidence is shown to arrive by Friday as
forecast soundings show top down drying and the quick moving upper
low over the Great lakes is suggested to depart to the east by late
afternoon. This will lead to another partly cloudy day along with
slightly warmer temperatures as the core of the coldest air will
have moved east. Highs on Friday will reach the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Saturday Through Wednesday...

On Saturday, models suggest a quick NW flow in place aloft with
ridging present within the lower levels. This will result in dry and
cool weather on Saturday, however a warm front will be approaching
through the day from the southwest.

Chances for rain will return on Sunday and Monday as a trough
develops over the plains and pushes across Central Indiana on Sunday
into Monday. A strong cold from will accompany this system, and with
a warm and humid air mass in place ahead of the front showers and
thunderstorms will be expected.

The upper pattern looks to become highly amplified over the CONUS for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong ridging will take shape over the
western CONUS while a deep trough will be found across the east
coast. This will lead to NW flow and subsidence across the upper
midwest and Indiana. Strong surface high pressure is expected to
build across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys before exiting by
Wednesday. Chances for precipitation return on Wednesday as a
surface area of low pressure is suggested to push through the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility improving to VFR around 04Z-05Z tonight
- Northwest winds gusting to 22-34KT...gusts down to 18-22KT by 06Z
- West-northwest winds Thursday gusting up to 12-16KT
- Surface flow backing after 18Z Thursday to SSW

Discussion:

Cold frontal zone will continue to cross over central Indiana
terminals this evening, with ceilings slowly improving through
widespread MVFR amid northwest gusts slowly diminishing from 22-34KT
early this evening.

VFR conditions will return around 04Z-05Z tonight as surface ridging
builds into the region from the northwest.  Thursday will feature
lighter breezes as flow slowly backs to westerly by 19Z...and SSW by
23Z.  Winds will then increase Thursday evening at KIND ahead of the
next system with gusts up to 20KT by 06Z Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...AGM