919
FXUS63 KIND 191053
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon
  and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the
  primary concerns

- Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before
  showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the
  holiday weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Today and Tonight -

Quiet but mostly cloudy conditions are expected early this morning.
The rapidly weakening northern extent of a line of showers currently
over western Illinois will move into the area this morning and may
produce some light rain in spots, though somewhat more substantial
rain and thunderstorm chances will wait until later in the day when
the cold front approaches the region.

Ample instability and modest deep layer shear will exist to promote
organization of developing convection this afternoon, and at least a
localized severe threat, primarily driven by wind, will exist. This
threat will persist into the evening hours when the front pushes
through.

Hydrologic concerns, particularly given precipitable water values
near the top end of climatology and widespread significant rainfall
yesterday of 1.5 to 3+ inches, will be at least an equal concern to
the severe threat, with flash flood guidance values as low as three
quarters of an inch in one hour across central Indiana. HREF
probability matched means indicate at least a low chance of reaching
these amounts in a few areas through tonight, though perhaps not
quite enough for another flood watch.

Wednesday through Monday -

Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a
bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its
wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief
cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into
Thursday evening.

Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper
level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls
a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with
the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given
significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts Tuesday 20-27KT

- Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into this
  evening

Discussion:

A few showers or isolated storms are present over north central
Indiana this morning, which will necessitate some VCSH early in the
period.

Winds will strengthen as mixing ramps up Tuesday morning, with gusts
of 20-27KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold
front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal
passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period,
with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening.

Ceilings post frontal will likely drop into MVFR, though some IFR
cannot be entirely ruled out. Later packages will refine this.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Nield