372
FXUS63 KIND 090254
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
954 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect Mostly clear and cool weather tonight. Sunny and warmer
  weather is expected on Monday.

- Highs will warm into the 60s on Tuesday before temperatures cool
  down significantly mid-late this week.

- The next best chance for rain will be late Wednesday through
  Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Quiet evening across central Indiana and surrounding areas. Broad
area of high pressure centered over the southern Plains with ridge
axis extending into the Mid-MO valley will keep light winds
generally from the W-SW. Mostly clear skies will again lead to
excellent radiational cooling conditions. Have added patchy fog to
low lying areas across mainly western and southern portions of
central Indiana. Rest of the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows low pressure over Ontario with
a trailing cold front across the Great Lakes to IL and MO. This was
a dry front as no precip or cloud cover was found near the front. A
ridge of high pressure was found over the plains. GOES19 shows sunny
skies across Indiana. Water Vapor shows strong ridging in place over
the Rockies with a trough in place over the Great Lakes. This was
resulting in NW flow aloft and subsidence was seen IN and IL. Dew
points across Indiana were in the mid 30s.

Tonight...

Quiet and cool weather will be expected tonight. The northwest flow
is expected to remain in place aloft as the ridging over the Rockies
pushes east and subsidence continues to build across Central
Indiana. The surface high pressure system to the west will also
build east into Indiana. Forecast soundings and time heights show a
dry column. Thus clear skies will be expected. Some Patchy fog,
particularly in rural or low lying areas cannot be ruled out as dew
point depressions may reach 3F or less. Look for lows in the middle
and upper 30s.

Monday through Tuesday...

Quiet and dry weather is expected to start the work week. Upper
ridging is expected to reside over Indiana and the Great Lakes on
Monday, providing little in the way of forcing. Meanwhile the
surface high pressure will remain in place across the area. Again
forecast soundings show a dry column. With southwest winds expected
highs in the lower 60s should be reached.

The cool and dry weather will continue on Monday night through
Tuesday Night as northwest flow aloft slowly become a bit zonal by
late Tuesday Night. A strong area of surface high pressure will
remain in place across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys along
with the deep south. Little to no moisture will be available through
this time and forecast soundings continue to show a dry column.
Westerly winds through the period will allow for a a continued slow
and small warming trend with warmer lows in the low to mid 40s on
Monday Night and highs in the middle 60s on Tuesday.
and
Wednesday through Sunday...

Weather conditions across the Ohio Valley late this week through the
weekend will largely be dictated by the expected development of an
amplified mid to upper ridge across the Western CONUS. Ensemble
guidance is in large agreement for a very amplified ridge to develop
along the Intermountain West Tuesday through Friday of next week, of
which will have cascading impacts to central Indiana. Initially,
upper level height depletion within modest CVA upstream of the ridge
will aid in a deepening trough over the Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday. This will likely lead to lee cyclogenesis downstream of
central Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still modest
ensemble spread on the specifics of this surface low, but there is
general agreement on the low nearing maturity over the Great Lakes
to Ohio Valley sometime late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Specific impacts to central Indiana will vary depending on low
placement and magnitude, but regardless of outcome, general
probability of precipitation will increase throughout Wednesday.
Given strong dynamics of the mid to upper pattern, along with
potential for veering flow aloft ahead of the low, there is some
potential for severe weather next Wednesday. That said, confidence
is not high at this time with still a wide variety of potential
outcomes and thermodynamic solutions.

Continued amplified ridging upstream of the aforementioned low will
likely lead to a strong push of cold air into the Ohio Valley on
Thursday as the low deepens and prolonged NW flow develops from the
Canadian Plains into the region. Ensemble are still fairly spread on
the axis of this cold air, but in general 850mb temps are expected to
drop well below freezing of which should push highs into the 40s
with lows in the 20s Thursday night through Saturday. Strong
temperature differences between the lake and low level air mass will
likely lead to, a few weakly forced snow/rain showers over central
Indiana Thursday night and Friday, but QPF is expected to be
minimal.

Late Saturday through Sunday, the longwave pattern will being to
progress with WAA entering the Upper Great Lakes region as NW flow
impinges on the anomalous heights. This should result in a gradual
warming and drying trend Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 629 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for patchy fog with MVFR visibilities at KLAF/KBMG early
  Monday morning.

Discussion:

Nocturnal inversion has set in and will keep winds much calmer
overnight from this afternoon. High pressure centered over the
southern Plains with a ridge axis extending into the mid MO valley
will keep winds generally light out of a WSW direction overnight.

Patchy ground fog will once again be possible early Monday morning
near KLAF/KBMG owing to proximity of lower lying terrain to these
terminals and excellent radiational cooling conditions. Maintaining
a period of MVFR vsby to account for this potential. Any ground fog
would be very shallow and should not limit vsby into the IFR
category for any length of time.

As the inversion breaks during the late morning, WSW winds will
increase. However overall weak winds in the lowest 2-3kft
AGL boundary layer suggest no gust potential with winds expected
to remain under 8 kts at all terminals Monday. Skies will be
mostly clear through the period with just a few passing cirrus
clouds expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma/Updike