908
FXUS63 KIND 091828
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
128 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Wednesday Morning.

- Rain and turning colder on Wednesday Night, with more rain chances
  through Friday. Highs on Thursday and Friday may only reach the
  40s.

- Mainly dry weather for the weekend with temperatures at or below
  seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 127 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over Arkansas
and TN, with a ridge axis extending north across IL and IN. Aloft,
water vapor shows a Pacific stream of moisture flowing across ID and
MT to the upper midwest, running into a ridge axis, before diving
southeast toward the middle Atlantic States. Subsidence was in place
over IL and IN. GOES19 shows clear skies over Indiana. Dew points
were mainly in the lower 40s

Tonight and Tuesday...

Dry and mild weather is expected through Tuesday Night. The dry,
Pacific NW flow aloft will continue to flow across Indiana with
little in the way of upper level forcing passing within the flow. A
weak and dry frontal boundary found stretching from MN to western KS
will continue to push east and pass across Indiana tonight, allowing
the arrival of another area of strong high pressure from the
northern plains states. Forecast soundings tonight through Tuesday
Night suggest a dry column. After warmer lows tonight, highs will
also be warmer on Tuesday, reaching the mid 60s. Mostly clear skies
are expected.

Wednesday...

A moderate short wave will push toward Indiana on Wednesday,
reaching our area late in the afternoon and into the evening. This
initial wave will set the stage for the coming cool down over the
weekend. An associated area of low pressure will push across IA,
placing central Indiana within the warm sector as we start the day.
Mild southerly flow will be in place through much of the day, until
the surface low and a cold front arrive in the area late in the day.
Forecast soundings start the day quite dry but trend toward deep
saturation by late afternoon. Thus a dry morning will be expected
with increasing pops during the afternoon. With the cloud cover
arriving as the day progresses, highs on Wednesday should be a
little cooler than Tuesday. Look for rain and much colder
temperatures on Wednesday night as the low and cold front passes
as winds become northerly.

Thursday through Monday...

A change in the weather will be in play during this time. Models
suggest a highly amplified upper flow across the CONUS in place by
Thursday and persisting through the weekend.

Starting on Thursday, A strong upper ridge will be in place over the
Rockies while a deep trough is found across the Great Lakes and into
the TN valley. A pair of short waves within that flow are poised to
push through Indiana amid a much colder northerly flow. A deep area
of associated surface low pressure will be found over OH and KY,
providing strong cyclonic and wrap around flow across Indiana.
Although best moisture should be cut off at that point, wrap around
moisture will persist and pops will be needed into Thursday Night.
Strong cold air advection and cloud cover will be in play on
Thursday. High temperatures around 50 may be optimistic as high may
not get out of the 40s.

More chances for precip will be in play on Friday as strong and deep
troughing looks to be in place across the eastern United States and
several embedded short waves within that flow will push across
Indiana. Moisture will remain limited due to the cold northerly
flow, but early forecast soundings suggest convective temps near 40F
with a convective signal within the column. Thus pops will need to
be used again. With the arrival of even colder air, highs in the
lower 40s will be possible.

Dry but continued colder weather looks to be in store for Saturday
through Monday. The previous ridging in place over the western
United States will push eastward and build across Indiana through
Monday. An initial ridge axis will arrive on Sunday with a secondary
ridge arriving Monday. Meanwhile a very large area of Canadian high
pressure will arrive across the eastern United States on Saturday
before settling over the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring dry
weather, a bit more sunshine, and temperatures at or below seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1122 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions this TAF period

Discussion:

A strong ridge of surface high pressure stretching from Arkansas to
IL/IN and then to MI will drift east of the TAF sites this
afternoon, as another dry cold front as seen over the plains states
is expected to pass on tonight. This front has little in the way of
clouds available and no precipitation. Thus continued VFR.

A new area of high pressure will build across Central Indiana on
Tuesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma