366
FXUS63 KIND 081616
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1116 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwesterly flow will warm temperatures into the
  upper 50s to low 60s today

- Highs will warm well into the 60s on Tuesday before temperatures
  cool down significantly mid-late this week

- Scattered showers are possible late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Surface analysis this morning shows low pressure over Ontario with a
trailing cold front across the Great Lakes to IA and MO. This was a
dry front as no precip or cloud cover was found near the front. A
ridge of high pressure was found over the plains. GOES19 shows sunny
skies across Indiana. Water Vapor strong ridging in place over the
Rockies with a trough in place over the Great Lakes. Subsidence was
seen across WI and northern IL, in the wake of the front. Dew points
across Indiana were in the lower 30s.

Little overall change will be needed with the ongoing forecast. High
pressure to the west will continue to build across Indiana through
the day along with the subsidence as seen on the water vapor
imagery. Forecast soundings indicate a dry column and convective
temperatures will not be reached. Thus expect a Sunny afternoon.
Look for highs to reach the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Today through Tuesday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue as surface high
pressure remains in control. Current satellite and surface
observations depict surface high pressure centered near southern IL
with clear skies across the forecast area. A very weak pressure
gradient from the surface high is contributing to very light or calm
winds. This combined with clear skies has allowed for patchy fog to
develop in climatologically favored locations. Any fog that develops
should quickly mix out after sunrise.

A low pressure system moving across southern Canada is expected to
push a weak cold front through the region tonight. Meanwhile, high
pressure remaining south of central Indiana will continue to greatly
limit gulf moisture return, allowing for dry conditions to persist.
Breezy conditions are likely ahead of the boundary due to a moderate
pressure gradient. Winds should quickly taper off during the evening
hours once the pressure gradient begins to relax and the PBL
decouples. Winds becoming light overnight combined with mostly clear
skies will support additional fog development into Monday morning.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure building across the region
early in the work week will continue to promote quiet weather.
Ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave pushing another weak cold
front into central Indiana on Tuesday. However, no precipitation is
expected due to gulf moisture remaining cutoff. It remains uncertain
if the front pushes through the entire forecast area as the front
eventually stalls Tuesday night.

Return flow will moderate temperatures over the next few days. Look
for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s through Monday with highs then
warming well into the 60s on Tuesday.

Wednesday through the end of the week...

A shortwave moving in from the northwest late Wednesday into
Thursday will promote increasing rain chances. Latest ensemble
guidance depicts surface high pressure breaking down across the
South. This should allow for sufficient gulf moisture return ahead
of a developing low pressure system associated with the shortwave.
Increasing dynamics combined with sufficient forcing supports the
potential for scattered showers.

The parent trough is expected to continue deepening across the
eastern CONUS through late week with strong cold air advection
across central Indiana. Model guidance also depicts surface high
pressure building in Friday and Saturday. Look for much cooler
temperatures late this week and quiet weather. Highs are only
expected to reach the low to mid 50s by Thursday while highs
struggle to get out of the 40s by Friday. Lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s return Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1116 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period

- Wind gusts near 25 knts possible this afternoon.

- Potential for fog with MVFR visibilities at the outlying TAF sites
  late tonight into Monday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. High
pressure to the northwest will build across Indiana today and
tonight. Strong subsidence will remain in play, preventing ceilings
or low clouds.

Overnight dew point depressions may fall to less then 3F. Thus
patchy MVFR fog cannot be ruled out.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Melo