630
FXUS63 KIND 151856
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
156 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected over the next 7 days

- Progressively warmer through the upcoming week with highs into the
  60s by Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 156 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over IL. Cool NW surface flow was in place over Indiana. GOES19
shows Lake cloud streaming across central Indiana. These clouds were
narrow, impacting Kokomo, Indianapolis, Columbus and Bloomington
while points to the west were under sunshine. Additional diurnal
stratocu had developed over eastern Central Indiana.  Aloft, water
vapor imagery shows strong ridging in place over the plains and
upper midwest extending into western Ontario. This was resulting in
lee side subsidence across Indiana within the column. Temperatures
were in the 40s.

Tonight...

The combination of weak warm air advection arriving from the west
along with the loss of diurnal heating should allow for skies across
Central Indiana to clear this evening and overnight. The surface
high pressure system to the west is expected to build eastward to
Indiana and Ohio overnight. Forecast soundings and time heights also
trend toward a dry column. Low dew point depressions along with
clear skies and light winds may result in patchy diurnal fog
development overnight. Look for lows in the lower 30s.

Monday through Tuesday...

The strong ridging aloft over the upper midwest is expected to sag
southeast, building across Central Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This results in strong mid level subsidence through the start of the
workweek. Furthermore, by Tuesday the ridging to the west rebuilds
and strengthens, keeping additional subsidence and drying in play
along with strengthening the already strong area of high pressure
that is in place over the eastern half of the country. Forecast
soundings remain dry through the period amid subsidence. Thus mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights will be expected. Weak warm air
advection is in place on Monday and Tuesday as the core of cold air
we have been dealing with moves farther east. Thus highs in the
lower 50s will be expected on Monday with middle 50s on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Strong surface high pressure will slowly continue to settle into the
region through the week. Deep subsidence and increasing heights from
the subsequent surface high will keep skies mostly clear through
Saturday. By Wednesday, models are hinting at a subtle shortwave
trough forming over the Great Plains in the wake of the upper level
ridge. A subsequent surface low pressure system is expected to form
over the Northern Plains with a cold front extending south towards
the Southern Plains/MS River Valley. 15-20 kts of southerly WAA
ahead of the cold front coupled with sufficient boundary layer
mixing during the day will promote a slow warming trend this week
with highs mid week in the low 60s rising to near record high
temperatures in the low 70s by the end of the week. Low temperatures
will be less mild ranging from the upper 30s midweek to the upper
40s by the end of the week.

Any chance for rain through the forecast period will be confined to
Saturday night into Sunday with the passage of the cold front.
Uncertainties in timing/track of the surface low and whether enough
moisture will be advected for measurable precipitation reduce
confidence in this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1152 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions this period
- Patchy MVFR fog possible late tonight at KHUF, KLAF and BMG.

Discussion:

An axis of stratus lake clouds was extending southeast from Lake
Michigan and south along the US 31 through central Indiana. Ceilings
have generally been around 3500ft. The clouds have shown signs of
dissipation or being less organized as weak warm air advection comes
into play. Stratus will mix out from the west this afternoon with
skies clearing. Patchy fog may to impact HUF, K and BMG as the
strong high pressure system to the west build across Indiana.
Clear skies, light winds and low dew point depressions will lead
to ideal radiational cooling conditions.

Any fog will quickly burn off on monday morning leading to a return
to VFR conditions with high pressure overhead.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma/SM
DISCUSSION...Puma/SM