042
FXUS63 KIND 031715
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1215 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor snow accumulations from a trace to less than half an inch
  possible today across much of central IN with the potential for 1-
  2 inches across far SE counties.

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7AM to 7PM today
  across far SE counties, greatest chance for impacts during the
  afternoon.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Early signs of mesoscale banding have begun across the I-74 corridor
this morning, quickly eroding the dry layer, with LCLs now around
2500ft. This has allowed for flurries to begin near and west of
Indy, with accumulating snow beginning east of Indy in the
Shelbyville to Rushville regions. This banding should shift
southward with time as the low continues to deepen and push eastward
across the Ohio River Valley. Still expected T-0.5" along the I-74
corridor east of Indianapolis with 1-2" likely from Bedford to North
Vernon.

In regards to the Winter Weather Advisory, there is less confidence
in greater than one inch in Bartholomew and Decatur counties, of
which will greatly depend on how quickly the meso-banding will lead
to moderate snow accumulations this morning before shifting
southward. Given this uncertainty, the Advisory will be left alone
for now, but may be dropped for the aforementioned counties later
this morning into the afternoon if banding shift southward fast
enough to avoid impactful snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Temperatures have remained steady overnight underneath a low stratus
deck. Current temperatures are in the 20s across central Indiana.
Latest KIND radar imagery and surface observations depict a narrow
band of snow over northern IL moving southeastward towards the area.
This band of snow is associated with a mid-upper level wave quickly
approaching. Guidance has been struggling with some high resolution
models not even depicting precipitation where visibilities are
around 2 miles or lower in the narrow band of snow.

Given recent trends and high-res models overdoing the low-mid level
dry air across northern IL, POPs were increased slightly over
northern central IN later this morning. Drier air ahead of the
incoming narrow axis of snow should still result in gradual
weakening or dissipation, but it appears some light snow could work
its way into northern counties. Minor accumulations from a trace to
a few tenths of an inch are possible. Will continue monitoring near
term trends to see if the dry air can manage to win out like some
guidance suggest.

Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected near the Ozarks this morning
ahead of the aforementioned wave aloft. Current surface analysis
already shows the developing surface low over SW Missouri slowly
moving eastward. Modest moisture advection and forcing ahead of the
system is expected to result in increasing coverage of flurries or
light snow later this morning. Low-mid level frontogenetical forcing
shifting into the area towards the late morning or early afternoon
hours will then likely lead to a developing narrow band of heavier
snow. Uncertainty remains on the evolution or exact location of this
band, but guidance continues to favor far southeastern counties and
locations eastward for the greatest snow chances.

Where exactly the band develops and how long it takes to organize
will determine exact snowfall amounts. At this time, guidance
suggest the potential for around 1 to possibly 2 inches of snow over
far southeast central IN. If the heavier band takes too long to
develop though these amounts could end up lower as forcing shifts
eastward. The rest of the forecast area should see minor
accumulations between a trace and half an inch. Mesoscale trends are
going to be key today given the uncertainties so continue to monitor
the forecast for updates.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far southeast
portions of central Indiana from 7AM to 7pm today with no changes
made at this time. The greatest chance for impacts would likely be
during the afternoon. Expect quiet weather conditions tonight as
surface high pressure builds in behind the departing system. Look
for cold air advection to drop temperatures into the single digits
to teens.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

An amplified upper level trough will remain the prominent feature
across much of the eastern part of the country through the end of
the week with another strong upper low diving southeast from James
Bay on Friday and deepening the trough along the East Coast for the
weekend. With the Ohio Valley on the back side of the trough in a
northwest flow regime...moisture return will remain limited with
only a limited opportunity for light snow late week as low pressure
passes to the northeast of the region. The eastward expansion of
ridging aloft by early next week will initiate the onset of milder
air into the region and most likely the warmest temperatures in a
few weeks.

Dry weather is expected for most of the second half of the week with
the exception of the aforementioned low pressure passing through the
eastern Great Lakes on Friday. This could provide a glancing blow of
snow showers to the northeast part of the forecast area late
Thursday night into Friday morning with the potential for a few
flurries to follow during the day Friday in the wake of a cold
frontal passage. Dry conditions then return for the weekend into
early next week as high pressure passes through the Ohio Valley.

Highs will remain colder than normal through much of the extended
but a more pronounced warming trend will commence near the end of
the forecast period early next week. Highs will hold in the 20s
Wednesday and Thursday followed by a brief bump up in temperatures
Friday before resuming daytime highs in the 20s and lower 30s for
the weekend. There remain signals for a more active weather pattern
developing next week as the ridge expands east with high uncertainty
in precipitation type as temperatures reside near or above the
freezing mark with increasing frequency.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible at times this afternoon and again late
overnight

- Confidence in snow decreasing and may only impact BMG this
afternoon.

Discussion:

Surface Low pressure moving across KY this afternoon may result in
some light snow showers across southern parts of Central Indiana,
including Bloomington. Radar currently shows most precipitation as
virga or very light across the area. HRRR shows band development
this afternoon as the low passes to the south near BMG, Bedford and
eastward toward Seymour. Models suggest these snow showers should
exit near 00Z, as surface high pressure begins to build from the
northeast.

Diurnal cooling should allow for some stratocu cloud development
overnight and this may result brief MVFR Cigs overnight. VFR should
return by mid Wednesday morning as high pressure continues to build
across the area.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ064-
065-071-072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Puma