432
FXUS63 KIND 140719
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and
  storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week.

- Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central
and North Central Indiana, a few of which may be strong to severe.

- Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with
multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Through Tonight...

Central Indiana remains firmly within the warm sector of an elongated
area of low pressure stretching from Minnesota into the Central
Plains. Southwesterly flow remains in place aloft with numerous
waves of energy within the mid and upper levels bringing renewed
chances for convection in Indiana. While the main storm track over
the next 24 hours remains to the west and northwest, closer to the
surface fronts and area of low pressure, this pattern does support
scattered convection developing or tracking near Central Indiana. A
very warm and humid environment with modest shear aloft will support
at least a marginal threat for severe weather for the next several
days as this same pattern persists.

Current satelitte imagery and observations show an overnight MCS
along a warm front in Wisconsin and Michigan while a dying area of
showers and storms is located near St. Louis. CAMs guidance has a
poor handle on the evolution of mesoscale features within this broad
southwesterly flow regime within the warm sector; therefore forecast
confidence on timing and placement of thunderstorm chances the next
several days is fairly low. The greatest storm threat and timing
will is all dependent on mesoscale and microscale boundaries which
develop as these dying complexes of storms enter Central Indiana.
This is a typical warm season set up where the forecast for the next
12 hours all depends on such small minute details which even CAMs
struggle to resolve. Therefore, numerous forecast updates will
likely occur as the convective set up for each day evolves.

Based on current trends early this morning, it appears the southern
end of the MCS pushing into Northern Illinois may clip portions of
North Central Indiana within the 6am to 9am timeframe as the MCS
backbuilds to the southwest under a strong southwesterly LLJ aloft.
Elsewhere across Central Indiana, higher clouds will continue to
overspread the region from dying storms to the west and the
approaching storms to the northwest. Not concerned with severe
storms this morning; however based on current soundings showing
steep low level lapse rates, any shower has the capability to bring
down higher gusts aloft in the 40-55 mph range.

A lull in the precipitation chances is likely late morning through
early afternoon across Central Indiana; however this is where there
is lower confidence in the forecast. Will have to watch where
leftover boundaries from this morning`s convection set up as this
will be where evening storms likely develop. Since Central Indiana
is well within the warm sector away from synoptic level fronts,
forcing along any leftover boundary will be fairly weak, keeping
overall coverage of evening storms widely scattered. However, any
storm does have the threat to be severe with all hazards on the
table. 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE and 20-35 kts of shear will be enough to
support a supercell threat along any of these boundaries. Current
thinking is that along and north of I-70 will have the threat for
these widely scattered storms 4PM to around 10PM. Will monitor how
everything evolves through the day and provide forecast updates as
confidence increases on exact locations of potential storm
development and associated threats.

Outside of storms, deep low level mixing within a warm and humid
environment with continued warm air advection will result in near
record high temperatures in the 80s today for Central Indiana.

Wednesday through Saturday...

The overall pattern remains relatively the same going into midweek
as the elongated area of low pressure and fronts slowly shift closer
to Indiana. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse
moving through the flow will have the potential to generate
scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated
by the front to the north could also impact North Central Indiana at
times. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given
expected parameters.

Temperatures on Wednesday depends on sky cover and rain coverage,
but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south. No
matter where convection forms, it will likely feel more like July
than Mid April in this type of pattern with such high humidity
levels.

Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough moves into the area,
providing better forcing for more widespread storms. The surface
front could move into the area, but there is a good amount of
uncertainty on timing of greatest coverage for storms Wednesday
night into Thursday depending on when the front moves through and
also associated smaller shortwaves, which guidance likely can`t
resolve at this time. While confidence is high in more widespread
rain and storm chances, timing and overall extent of the severe
threat is still uncertain.

Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and
warm to hot day. A larger upper trough moves in on Saturday bringing
a strong cold front through the area. This will result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe
once again.

Sunday and Monday...

A brief cool down expected for the region latter half of the weekend
and into early next week. Longer range guidance continues to hint at
upper troughing developing over SE Canada and the NE CONUS going
into early next week, allowing for cooler airmasses from Canada to
drop southward behind Saturday`s front. Still uncertainty on the
overall location and track of the incoming high pressure, but
confidence remains high in a few days of much cooler weather and the
potential for a few frosty mornings in the 30s. Highs will be below
normal, with the coldest readings Sunday in the 50s. Lows in the
middle to upper 30s may occur Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost
potnetial is certainly there but confidence is only marginal at this
time as the placement of the high pressure will ultimately determine
if optimal conditions for radiational cooling and frost occur over
Central Indiana or elsewhere within the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 25 to 35kts likely through the period
- Scattered convection may impact sites 13-16z then again 21z-03z.

Discussion:

Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly
within the warm sector of an elongated area of low pressure in the
Central Plains. Low level south-southwesterly flow will continue
through the period with gusts of 25-35 kts to continue. Latest IND
ACARs sounding still shows a well mixed boundary layer under an
inversion at almost 2km agl. This is a fairly deep mixed layer for
the overnight hours. With a strengthening nocturnal low level jet
overhead, expect these stronger gusts at or above 35 kts to persist
into the mid to late morning hours, diminishing some into the 20-25
kt range by the afternoon as the LLJ weakens.

Lower confidence forecast regarding convection in this type of
pattern as short term hi-res guidance struggles to handle these
overnight storm complexes. Watching a complex in both Missouri and
Wisconsin which could impact Central Indiana in the 12-16z
timeframe. The Missouri complex should weaken as it tracks east,
however there`s a good possibility that the complex of storms entering
Northern Illinois clips portions of Central Indiana later this
morning as the atmosphere is conducive for convective maintenance
into the area. Best threat for any morning storms would be at KLAF
and KIND and points northeast. Confidence is only marginal in this
threat, but high enough to include a Prob30 group for showers.

Leftover boundaries later this afternoon within a very unstable and
moist airmass should result in some afternoon convective development
within Central Indiana, mostly likely along and north of I-70 in the
21z-03z timeframe. These storms would have the potential to be
severe if they get going. Low confidence in finer details in this
pattern. Will be able to determine where the highest threat is later
this afternoon once boundaries for storms actually develop. Even
when storms do develop, they may be widely scattered, but still
think the threat is high enough to include a Prob30 group for storms
this evening for the sites along and north of I-70.

Cigs and vis should remain VFR for the most part today, with brief
periods of MVFR or worse conditions under any shower or
thunderstorm.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record
temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday,
and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and
any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time.

Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but
the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines
up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy`s record high is 85, set in 1883.
On Friday April 17, Indy`s record high is 87, set in 1896.

Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the
warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for
this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set
in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for
tying that number.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...CM
DISCUSSION...CM
CLIMATE...Ryan