506
FXUS63 KIND 251941
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for precipitation Tonight into early Thursday, with a light
  coating of snow possible mainly central and north, though marginal
  temperatures should limit impact

- Warmer Friday and Saturday with highs well into the 50s and a few
  60s possible

- Wintry mix possible late this weekend into early next week,
  details uncertain at this point

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Skies have cleared behind a weak cold front that passed through last
night. The strongest cold air advection remains to our north,
however, and temperatures have warmed nicely under full sun this
afternoon. Winds remain on the gusty side, however, due to a tight
MSLP gradient over the region. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph have been common. The strongest winds are over the
northeastern half of our CWA, since the area of low pressure
associated with the front is over southern Ontario. Winds are
expected to diminish quickly this evening as the low pulls further
away.

Looking upstream, a vort max embedded within broad northwesterly
upper-level flow is diving southeastward across the northern Plains.
This feature is modeled to pass through Indiana between 09z-12z
tonight with light precipitation. Recent trends in guidance have
been towards a drier solution with some high-resolution members now
showing little if any precipitation. Still, enough of the guidance
suite continues to show at least light precipitation across the
southern half of our CWA. We`ll cap PoPs at around 40 percent, with
no mention of precipitation along our northern border.

Precipitation type may be an issue tonight, since temperatures are
not terribly cold ahead of this system. Model soundings suggest that
snow is the most likely outcome from about Bloomington northward
with rain becoming increasingly favored south of there. One factor
pointing towards snow as the primary precip type is the magnitude of
low-level dry air. Wet bulb temperatures are expected to be below
freezing, so once precipitation begins to fall the evaporative
processes should cool the column enough to allow snow to reach the
surface. The dry air is also a factor limiting the precipitation in
general, since precip appears to be light the majority of it may
evaporate before reaching the ground. As such, only light
accumulations of snow up to a half of an inch is expected.

Precipitation come to an end around 12z, with skies clearing
thereafter. With no real surface reflection associated with this
system, an air mass change is not anticipated behind it.
Temperatures tomorrow appear to be quite similar to those today,
with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 under mostly sunny skies.
Winds become light and variable, to near calm at times, as surface
high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 241 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

The current synoptic pattern is that of persistent troughing over
the eastern CONUS with ridging out west. Such a set up places
Indiana within broad northwesterly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance
shows this beginning to change by the start of the long range
(Friday). A transition to a quasi-zonal pattern is expected, and
eventually a reversal with mean troughing shifting to the western US.

Prior to this happening though, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is
expected to develop in the lee of the northern Rockies as a
supergeostrophic jet streak aids in cyclogenesis. As this low
deepens over the Canadian Plains later this week, broad, warm SW
flow will reach the region leading to a significant warm-up for
Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across the
state. This warmer airmass will stick around into most of Saturday,
until a weak cold front attempts to push cooler air into the region.
This cold front will be backed by significant cold air, but will
likely stall over the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Sunday
as the forcing from the aforementioned low becomes displaced with
eastward progression. The result will be a modest baroclinic zone
over the general region, with the previously discussed quasi-zonal
flow aloft.

An east-west baroclinic zone setting up somewhere over the region
places Indiana in a tough spot. Combined with the zonal jet, a west
to east storm track may take shape this weekend into early next
week. Guidance is in good agreement showing strong cold high
pressure over southern Canada. This would act to reinforce colder
air lingering over the region. Therefore, precipitation type may
become a forecast challenge later this weekend as a storm system
develops over the Plains.

Model uncertainty remains high in terms of placement of the
baroclinic zone and subsequent storm track. A deviation north of
south, especially in scenarios that feature a tight temperature
gradient, would have huge implications on what kind of weather any
particular location experiences. For now, we`ll go with a broad area
of rain snow mix, but it is also possible that a narrow area of
sleet or freezing rain occurs. Until the eventual storm track
becomes clear, assuming the storm develops at all, freezing rain
will be left out of the forecast.

Looking into next week, the zonal pattern begins to shift to mean
troughing out west with ridging across the east. This would imply a
warm up with broad southwesterly flow taking hold. Additionally, an
active storm track may develop as energy ejects from the western
trough and heads northeastward, interacting with the pre-existing
baroclinic zone. As such, warmer and wetter than average weather is
favored next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts 25-30kt this afternoon, diminishing this evening.
- MVFR possible late tonight with flurries and snow showers.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through 06z. Wind gusts out of the west
northwest between 25 to 30 knots are expected today, which will
diminish this evening. Winds remain under 10 knots from this evening
onward, gradually becoming northerly with time.

Tonight, a lingering frontal boundary along with a quick moving
upper wave will push across Central Indiana bringing a chance of
rain and snow, along with MVFR Cigs early on Thursday morning. The
best chance of precipitation is from HUF to IND and points
southward.

Precipitation comes to an end around 12z, with VFR conditions
returning quickly thereafter. Winds out of the northeast diminish
becoming light and variable to calm at times with surface high
pressure building overhead.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike/Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff