473
FXUS63 KIND 270642
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending this morning. Much cooler Today and Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures arrive for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Next best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday
Night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
southern Ohio, southern Indiana and southern IL. High pressure was
found over the northern plains and was emerging southeast into the
upper midwest. Winds across central Indiana  have become
northeasterly in the wake of the front but remain rather gusty due
to a moderate pressure gradient that remains in place. There was a
wide array of temperatures across the state this morning, with mid
70s in pace near the Ohio river and mid 30s along the Michiana
boarder. Looking aloft, water vapor shows weak ridging in place over
the western CONUS while the lee side flow was mainly westerly and
zonal across the northern plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Radar across the areas shows post frontal, elevated showers
and thunderstorms streaming across northern parts of Central Indiana
sagging southward across Central Indiana.

Early this morning...showers and thunderstorms will continue to push
southward across the forecast area and high pops will be used. HRRR
shows the bulk of this precip out of the forecast area by 12Z. Thus
pops will be limited to just the southern most tier of counties from
12Z-13Z.

The rest of today...The weak ridging aloft over the western CONUS is
expected to strengthen somewhat today and the lee side response
across the upper midwest is a more pronounced northwest flow along
with subsidence. Forecast soundings today show subsidence within the
column as strong cold air advection begins. HRRR wishes to keep
lower clouds present through the day while others suggest a dry
column with only high cloud streaming aloft. Given our strong cold
air advection and the presence of a mid level inversion, we will
expect mostly cloudy skies this morning with some improvement this
afternoon. With clouds today and 850mb temps falling to -5C by late
in the day temperatures this afternoon will linger in the low to
middle 40s. Overall, highs for the calendar day have been already
set, probably at 1201 AM.

Tonight through Sunday...The strengthening ridge over the western
United States will allow for NW flow to persist through the weekend
providing continued dry weather and lee side subsidence spilling
from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. No forcing appears to
pass within this flow. The coldest night will be tonight as lows
fall below freezing amid clear skies and light winds.

On Saturday, the surface high will drift across the area and a
mostly sunny and pleasant spring day is expected, with cool
temperatures as surface winds will remain out of the southeast. By
Sunday, southerly flow will return along with warm air advection as
the surface high will have drifted east of Indiana. 850mb temps by
Sunday are expected to return to around 5C,  which should allow
temperatures to return to the 60s with partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Mainly zonal flow is expected aloft for much of the next work week,
with a subtle short wave passing on Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
Starting on Monday and Tuesday, Indiana will still be under the
influence of the strong high pressure system that will be well east
of Central Indiana at that point. The southerly return flow around
the high will allow for strong warm air advection that will allow
850mb temps to rise to around 15C by Tuesday. This will allow for
temperatures to once again return to the 70s on Monday and near 80
on Tuesday.

By Tuesday Night, Indiana will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of
an approaching cold front associated with the previously mentioned
upper wave. Again, as we have seen with recent systems, another
round of showers and storms will be expected as this system passes
on Tuesday night and Wednesday. In the wake of the front on
Wednesday, the roller coaster temperature ride will continue as cold
air advection returns sending temperatures back to the 50s for highs.

Looking at Thursday, there remains some uncertainty as strong high
pressure remains overt the Great Lakes but the frontal boundary is
suggested to linger across KY and TN as a weak area of low pressure
passes. Depending upon how far south that frontal boundary gets,
will likely determine our rain chances. For now, rain chances will
be included, mainly south, but overall confidence on Thursday is low.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Impacts:

- Rain showers and thunderstorms overnight.

- MVFR ceilings overnight through Friday morning.

- VFR Returns on Friday afternoon.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms in the wake of a cold front will push across the TAF
sites through the overnight hours and MVFR conditions with brief IFR
conditions will be possible through the night.

Forecast soundings through the day suggest trapped stratocu amid
strong cold air advection. Even though precipitation should be done
by 12-14Z near BMG, the MVFR clouds will persist through the day.

Strong high pressure builds across the area this afternoon into the
overnight. This will lead to a return to VFR conditions as forecast
soundings show a dry column amid subsidence.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Puma