462
FXUS63 KIND 132245
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures
  continuing

- Increasing risk for rain and storms over the weekend with gusty
  winds accompanying a cold frontal passage

- Turning cooler Sunday and Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Remnants mid and high level clouds from the weakening front to the
west have made it into the western half of the forecast area this
afternoon while a diurnal cu field had formed where dewpoints were
slightly higher further east. 18Z temperatures were in the 70s.

The aforementioned front to the west had a broader area of light
rain over central and northern Illinois earlier in the day but as
the front has weakened further and the rain has moved east into a
progressively drier airmass...have seen the precipitation area
diminish significantly. This trend will continue over the next few
hours although may see a few sprinkles sneak over the state line
into the northern Wabash valley before fully dissipating.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will remain prevalent over the Ohio
Valley through the short term with moisture aloft gradually
retreating to the west into Tuesday. The mid and high clouds
currently over the western counties will remain in part across the
area into the evening before clear skies reestablish. Easterly flow
will remain light through tonight across central Indiana.

Surface flow will back on Tuesday to more of a northeasterly
direction aided by the expansion of high pressure into the upper
Midwest. Model soundings do appear to be more favorable for
scattered cu development on Tuesday focused especially across the
northeast half of the forecast area.

Temps...lows will be warmer tonight with a range from the mid and
upper 40s over northeast counties to the lower 50s for most of the
area west of I-65. Low level thermals support highs in the upper 70s
for much of central Indiana with lower 80s possible in a few
locations in the Wabash Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Dry and quiet weather will continue through late week with broad
ridging aloft and at the surface. Skies will be mostly clear through
much of the period with the bulk of any increased cloud cover
largely confined to midweek as a weakening frontal boundary drifts
into the lower Great Lakes.

Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout
much of the extended...even as a brief cooldown arrives Wednesday
and Thursday in response to heights aloft buckling slightly as a
stronger upper low dives into New England and the ridge retrograding
back into the Mississippi Valley. Highs will slip back into a range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s east to west both days with lows
sliding back to near 40 or perhaps even a touch cooler over eastern
portions of the forecast area for Wednesday night.

The ridge will shift back east by late week with a noted increase in
southerly flow and warmer temperatures in the mid and upper 70s in
response to a strong cold front moving east out of the Plains.
Timing differences linger within the extended model suite but there
is a growing confidence in a frontal passage Saturday night and
early Sunday. This will bring the best chance for widespread rain
and storms over the next 7 to 10 days with a convective risk as
well. At this point...a damaging wind threat is likely to align to
our southwest from the lower Ohio Valley south into the mid South in
the first in this series of stronger Fall systems impacting the
region. The front will also usher in gusty gradient winds for the
weekend.

Behind the front for late weekend into early next week...a trailing
yet progressive upper trough will bring a brief but notable shot of
cooler air to the Ohio Valley before airmass modification and warmer
temperatures by the middle of next week as ridging aloft
reestablishes. Trends do suggest that this cold front this
weekend...which will be the strongest we have seen over the region
so far this Fall...is likely to be the initial transitional piece in
a more amplified and active weather pattern highlighted by increased
variability in temperatures and precipitation chances set to
extend through late month into early November.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Impacts:

- None. VFR through the period.

Discussion:

Mid level clouds associated with a remnant frontal boundary to the
NW of central Indiana will continue to diminish through the late
evening hours. Meanwhile, lower clouds with ceilings between 040 and
060 over northern Illinois/Indiana will push southward into portions
of central Indiana /primarily KLAF/ late tonight lasting through
midday Tuesday before scattering out during the afternoon. Otherwise,
broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will keep
winds generally light from the north-northeast.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Crosbie