RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST
OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central
Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also
occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho, and also across parts of central California.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes
region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper
low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the
Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper
shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast.
...Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks...
In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced
cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon
and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool
temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg
along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in
the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK
into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front
and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.
With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may
generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may
briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some
enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large
hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized
strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest
storms.
...Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern
CA...
In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and
interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level
moisture.
Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with
time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability
currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID.
Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells
may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe gusts.
A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer
shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great
Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may
support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest
storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell
organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this
potential remains very uncertain at this time.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing
boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.
Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk.
Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.
...Central CA...
Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.
...Great Basin vicinity...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.
..Leitman.. 04/10/2026
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