RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...Discussion...
Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters
of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm
activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern
California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central
California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater
instability in the central Valley.
A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday.
Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently
scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does
show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated
instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the
strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening.
However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.
..Bentley.. 02/15/2026
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