RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.
...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.
...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.
..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.
...20Z Update...
A stronger storm has evolved out of activity in central Texas. This
activity is occurring along a buoyancy gradient along the surface
boundary. While storms will likely remain elevated, a strong to
severe storm or two may be capable of marginally severe hail. The
Marginal has been adjusted to account for this potential.
Additionally, the Slight risk has been moved slightly southward in
central Mississippi given persistent northerly winds and drying low
levels in northern portions of the state. See the previous forecast
for additional details.
..Wendt.. 01/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/
...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.
...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across
central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the
period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving
frontal wave.
Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to
promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a
couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a
couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent
on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The
window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z -- before
low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing
frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened
severe potential.
Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the
Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet
and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the
surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.
...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for
ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough
could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped
convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence
in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area
at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
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