RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the
Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large
hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the
Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the
Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO
during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A
stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will
become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout
the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the
eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS
overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western
TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in
the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms,
particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late
in the day and into the evening.
...TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS...
Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the
warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some
concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern
areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a
few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX
Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX.
Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will
clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and
tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely
continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps
toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be
quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.
...Northern KS...NE...IA...
After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop
overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt
low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE
developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within
the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells,
and a few storms could produce hail.
...Western FL Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s
F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively
cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula
during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not
currently forecast.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a
north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.
A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.
Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will
take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the
day will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
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