RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.
Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
ARK-LA-MISS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday
mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.
...Synopsis...
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a positive-tilt trough
over the central to southern High Plains will move east-northeast
towards the Lower OH and TN Valleys through early Tuesday. These
impulses will dampen Monday night downstream of a shortwave trough
digging from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains.
Weak surface cyclone near the KS/OK border may decay as it tracks
into the Ozarks. A warm front will advance north from south-central
TX and the central Gulf Coast.
...Central TX to MS...
Primary change this outlook has been to shift/expand severe
probabilities east/south based on latest guidance trends. Confidence
remains too low for highlighting a mesoscale corridor of strong
tornado potential with a level 3-ENH risk.
Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central
TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these
storms through midday. Downstream of these storms, the surface warm
front will accelerate northward across east TX. Amid rich
boundary-layer moisture south of the front, a plume of moderate
buoyancy will become pervasive from south into most of east TX.
Primary severe potential should commence around mid-afternoon amid
weak mid-level height falls and minimal inhibition. Activity should
intensify/increase along the outflow from early-day convection and
in confluence bands immediately downstream. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures, but convective
mode will likely remain quite messy along the progressive outflow
that nearly parallels the shear vector. The more semi-discrete cells
just ahead and trailing southward will have the best potential to
produce large hail. The tornado threat will be influenced by the
degree of discrete convection that forms eastward in the warm sector
through early evening where low-level hodograph curvature remains
large. Nocturnal tornado and some wind threat will persist into the
late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture is
maintained across the Sabine Valley and expands east through MS.
..Grams.. 11/23/2025
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