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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook
      
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening...

* LOCATIONS...
  Far Eastern Iowa
  Northern and Central Illinois
  Southern Wisconsin
  Northern Indiana
  Northern Missouri
  Lower Michigan

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Several tornadoes, a couple intense
  Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
  including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
  Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern
  Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense
  damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several
  tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
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SPC Jun 12, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes region. This includes the potential for
tornadoes (possibly strong), widespread/intense damaging winds (some
75+ mph), and isolated hail.

...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes...
A rather volatile environment remains in place this evening across
parts of IL/IN and southwest Lower MI, especially in the vicinity of
a modified outflow across northern IL/IN. Rich low-level moisture,
moderate to strong buoyancy, and strong low-level shear/SRH will
continue to support all severe hazards through much of the evening.
Convection has largely taken on a linear or cluster mode, with an
attendant threat of severe/damaging gusts and line-embedded
tornadoes. Any discrete cells that can be maintained within or ahead
of ongoing convection will continue to pose a conditional
strong-tornado threat, along with isolated hail potential. See MCD
1101 and MCD 1102 for more information regarding the short-term
threat in this area. 

Increasing CINH and decreasing MLCAPE with eastward extent should
eventually result in a weakening trend, though an organized severe
threat may reach parts of southeast MI and western OH later tonight.


...OK/TX into MO/northern AR...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing from parts of
western/central OK into MO, generally along or just behind a
southward moving cold front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and
deep-layer shear of around 25-35 kt near the front will continue to
support occasional storm organization and a continued threat of hail
and localized severe gusts, though convection may increasingly
become undercut by the front with time. An isolated severe threat
may eventually spread toward the Red River into western/northern AR
late tonight. 

...Mid Atlantic vicinity...
Loosely organized storm clusters with a history of producing wind
damage are approaching the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. While
deep-layer shear will continue to be modest at best, a very
warm/moist boundary layer and moderate buoyancy will continue to
support potential for strong to locally severe gusts and scattered
wind damage, before convection weakens and/or moves offshore later
tonight.

..Dean.. 06/12/2026

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