RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE OZARKS...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across
the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel
temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch
from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result
in midlevel drying across the central Plains.
A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of
the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX
during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and
southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of
this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the
MO Valley.
...Dakotas southeastward into AR...
Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday
morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting
continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with
potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later
in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would
be possible.
Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and
may support hail despite weak shear.
To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into
western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to
strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much
early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist.
Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and
brief tornado risk.
...OK into western TX...
Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from
north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F
dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield
isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely
be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX,
where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the
area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with
locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
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