RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
Arizona.
...Mid Atlantic...
Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of
the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and
temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough
passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development
of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA
southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening.
Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result
in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in
southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far
east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several
hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.
...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form
over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters
favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an
increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level
moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong
intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of
damaging winds.
...ND/SD...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across
ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by
late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western
SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible.
...MO/IL/KY/IN...
The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking
eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass
over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but
some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over
east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development
of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could
pose a damaging wind threat.
Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will
result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO
by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this
corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for
supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible over the central and southern High
Plains and eastern Kansas into Missouri Friday afternoon and
evening. More sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and large hail
are possible from the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the western Florida Peninsula, and
parts of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.
...Synopsis...
Considerable amplification of a mid/upper-level ridge is forecast
from the lower CO Valley into central Canada on Friday into Friday
night. To the immediate east of the building heights, the 12Z models
indicate multiple perturbations (some of convective origin)
progressing through the central Plains into the mid MS, lower OH,
and TN Valleys. At the surface, the primary front, the position of
which may be modified by convective outflow, is expected to stretch
from the southern High Plains through the mid MS Valley into the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the CO
Front Range and Raton Mesa, where moist upslope flow will coincide
with an EML to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Despite only modest westerly flow in the mid levels, an
easterly low-level wind component will augment deep-layer shear,
allowing for some supercell structures with a risk for isolated
large hail. 12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in
depicting the upscale growth of the initial storms into a bowing,
linear mode with an associated severe wind risk spreading east into
far southwest KS and the OK and TX Panhandles.
...Eastern KS into the mid MS Valley...
The eastern extension of the EML will overlie a moist boundary layer
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s to yield moderate to
strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+
J/kg. Convergence along the synoptic front and/or residual outflow
boundaries will be aided by forcing for ascent attendant to a
remnant MCV to support scattered afternoon storms. Some enhancement
of the mid-level wind field is forecast in the vicinity of the
MCV/shortwave trough, which will locally augment vertical shear,
supporting organized storm modes with an attendant risk for large
hail and severe wind gusts.
...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast...
An area of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday
near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers. That activity may
weaken or dissipate by mid morning over the TN Valley; however, a
remnant MCV may support a reinvigoration of storms by afternoon from
the TN Valley through the southern Appalachians toward Carolina
coast. The presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass,
featuring steep low-level lapse rates, will support sporadic
damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Some mid-level flow enhancement is forecast Friday afternoon in
association with a shortwave trough moving through the region. That
feature, coupled with the synoptic front in the area, will support
scattered afternoon storms amidst a moist and at least modestly
unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen to
30-35 kt, which may contribute to some storm organization with the
primary hazard being isolated damaging wind gusts.
...Western Florida Peninsula...
A number of the 12Z CAMs suggest some degree of cold pool
organization with afternoon thunderstorms moving west/northwest
through the area. The presence of moderate to strong instability
will aid in the water loading of downdrafts with an associated risk
for locally damaging wind gusts.
...MN and Eastern SD...
Despite building mid-level heights, there is a fairly consistent
model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development along a
front during the afternoon. The combination of moderate to strong
instability and a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt
of deep-layer shear will favor some storm organization with the
potential for a few large hail occurrences.
..Mead.. 07/09/2026
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