RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.
...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/01/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.
...20z Update OK/KS/MO...
Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid
destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front
gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and
southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly
tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects
eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the
front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight
before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic
ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and
shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some
tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the
5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM
guidance shows storm persisting overnight.
Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior
outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains
likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern
OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a
moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large
hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible
some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms
congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt
low-level jet.
...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to
gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal
zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front,
moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm
organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY
into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps
some hail are possible with the stronger storms.
..Lyons.. 04/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/
...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin,
northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.
...Discussion...
While a notable mid/upper high persists across the southwestern mid-
into subtropical western Atlantic, flow emanating from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to remain progressive into and
across the Pacific coast through this period. Within this regime, a
strong mid/upper jet streak, short wave trough and embedded
mid-level cyclone are forecast to dig across the northern U.S.
Pacific coast through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain Region
and Rockies by early Friday. It appears that this will be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies late Thursday through Thursday night.
As this occurs, a preceding short wave trough, which has emerged
from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, likely will be forced
north-northeast of the central Great Plains through the Upper
Midwest and upper Great Lakes region by late Thursday night. Models
suggest that it will deamplify as it does, but an initially deep
associated surface cyclone may maintain considerable strength as its
center migrates from northeastern Kansas through northeastern Iowa
by late afternoon, before undergoing more appreciable weakening
while continuing across the eastern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan
vicinity overnight.
...Great Plains into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
Considerable convective development may be ongoing at the outset of
the period across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes, and southward across the eastern Great Plains into central
Texas. Much of this is likely to be well in the process of
weakening, particularly across the southeastern Great Plains, as the
mid/upper wave continues accelerating across/north-northeast of the
central Great Plains during the day.
Due to still somewhat modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture,
and convective cloud cover spreading downstream across the potential
near-surface inflow environment, models suggest little potential for
appreciable destabilization and re-intensification of the initial
pre-cold frontal convective development as it spreads across and
east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley during the day.
However, in its wake, a corridor of better pre-cold frontal
low-level moisture return, beneath a plume of a steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with a developing dry slot, is forecast to
contribute to at least a narrow corridor of substantive
boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg along/ahead of a developing
dryline/closely trailing cold front, from the vicinity of the low
across east central Iowa southwestward toward the Missouri Ozarks by
20-21Z.
Particularly near the surface low and warm front intersection,
forcing for ascent probably will be sufficient to support intense
convective development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear
and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (beneath a 50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet). This should, at least initially, include
discrete supercell development with potential to produce tornadoes,
before perhaps growing upscale while developing east-northeastward
ahead of the surface cyclone into Thursday evening.
Additional supercells are likely to continue developing
south-southwestward along the trailing dryline, before it is
overtaken by the cold front, toward the lower Missouri Valley.
Embedded within south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the
order of 50+ kts, fast storm motions roughly aligned with the axis
of destabilization could support a couple of long-lived/long track
supercells with potential for strong tornadoes, before convection
weakens Thursday evening.
..Kerr.. 04/01/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.
...Discussion...
While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great
Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday,
a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast
while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the
middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive
large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It
appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front
advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a
modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will
weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains
and occluding late Friday through Friday night.
It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold
front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate
boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of
northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by
Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the
stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into
parts of the lower Ohio Valley.
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale
trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output
that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward
advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front
late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with
potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts
and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing
meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows
upscale and forward propagates.
It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the
Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for
higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable
air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the
surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather
probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front
across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this
period.
..Kerr.. 04/01/2026
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