RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.
...Discussion...
Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.
Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.
Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
... Discussion ...
A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on
Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US
mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much
of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface
anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a
mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal
intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm
development on Monday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.
... Discussion ...
The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a
mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break
down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow
across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest
flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of
the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough
will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and
the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated
with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California,
thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
Read more
