RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of
the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over
the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind
damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
...Dakotas into Minnesota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds
aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and
NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into
central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with
strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front
with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND
where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may
transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS
developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will
support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the
late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the
surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along
with locally damaging gusts.
...Northeast Texas into western Louisiana...
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley
into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and
70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX
area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse
rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration
storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina...
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface
trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500
J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by
peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing
clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
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