RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S.
today to near the eastern Seaboard tonight. At the surface, cold
high pressure will settle into the southern Plains. This dry airmass
will dominate much of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms could occur
in south Florida near a front early in the day, and along the New
England coast near an inverted surface trough. Isolated lightning
strikes may also occur with snow over and near Lake Michigan. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today and
tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/10/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry or stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible offshore of the coastal
Mid-Atlantic States and NC, as the mid-level cold core of the
departing eastern trough overspreads the northern periphery of the
Gulf Stream.
..Grams.. 11/10/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Stable and/or dry conditions will preclude lightning-producing
convection across much of the CONUS. One exception is along coastal
OR/northern CA on Wednesday night into early morning Thursday.
Instability should initially be negligible within the low-level warm
conveyor preceding a broad upper trough over the northeast Pacific.
As the trough approaches the West Coast late, steepening of
mid-level lapse rates may be sufficient for scant buoyancy within an
onshore flow regime, yielding an isolated thunderstorm risk.
..Grams.. 11/10/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week,
with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next
weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to
mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States.
Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on
D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend.
While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater
alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough
across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity
remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance
such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large
amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly
unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC's
latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this
weekend's forecast.
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