RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through
the day.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.
...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...
Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).
...Mid-South...
A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.
..Moore.. 04/01/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours across Iowa southward into the southern Plains. Very
large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
Medium and long-range guidance continue to show reasonably good
alignment in the progression of an upper wave into the central CONUS
through the day Friday into early Saturday. Ahead of this wave,
robust cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Plains along a
residual baroclinic zone that should be draped from the Plains
eastward into the OH Valley in the wake of a leading system on
Wed/Thu. Northward advection of seasonally rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low 60s) ahead of the intensifying low and
attendant cold front will establish a fairly broad warm sector from
the Midwest southward into the southern Plains. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front
through late afternoon and early evening with a threat for all
convective hazards.
...Iowa/northern Missouri...
The most robust convective environment will likely emerge across
northern MO into southern and central IA by late Friday afternoon.
Here, strong moisture return behind a northward lifting warm front
should support MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong
synoptic ascent ahead of the surface low and ejecting upper trough
will erode warm sector inhibition, and closer proximity to the upper
jet will allow for 35-45 knot effective bulk shear values nearly
orthogonal to the approaching cold front. This should favor
initially discrete cells capable of large hail as well as tornadoes
given forecast effective SRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2.
With time, strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth with
an increase in the severe wind threat, though some extended-range
CAM guidance hints a line-preceding supercells within the weakly
capped warm sector (though confidence in this scenario is low).
Regardless, convection traversing the best CAPE/shear parameter
space in the region should yield a higher potential for severe
thunderstorms, warranting the introduction of 30% risk
probabilities.
...Kansas into Oklahoma...
Further south/southwest, rapid upscale growth is anticipated along a
southeastward pushing cold front by late afternoon from eastern KS
into northern OK. Storm motions and deep-layer flow more parallel to
the initiating boundary may result in initially slow southeastward
propagation of the convective line, though more substantial
progression of the line is likely by early evening as the nocturnal
jet slowly strengthens. Regardless, a severe wind threat appears
likely with this activity.
...Southwest Oklahoma into Western Texas...
A dryline will likely be draped from western OK southward into
western TX. Although forcing for ascent will be weak with southward
extent, weak capping and ample diurnal heating should support at
least isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. While
low-level wind shear may be somewhat marginal, forecast soundings
depict elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail.
..Moore.. 04/01/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist
through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH
Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week,
a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic
cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West
will limit severe weather chances.
...D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley...
An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly
translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday
through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing
cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization
Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however,
long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in
surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely
support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become
sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the
combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement
regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating
precludes risk probabilities.
...D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic...
The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by
late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding
the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF,
suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon
hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong
low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the
primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this
time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.
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