RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...
Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.
Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.
This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026
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