RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
for parts of the Southeast, far west Texas, southern New Mexico,
central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead,
and northern Rockies.
...Southeast...
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level south-southwesterly flow over
the Southeast. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is analyzed over
eastern Mississippi with onshore southerly flow located from the
Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. In this area, surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F and the RAP has an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. A
line of strong thunderstorms is located along a low-level
convergence zone in far southeast Alabama, just to the west of the
instability axis. Also, the RAP shows 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km
shear. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in far southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia could be as great as 100 to 125 m2/s2, suggesting that an
isolated tornado threat will be possible. A few of the stronger
storms may also have an isolated wind-damage threat.
...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
southwestern New Mexico extending southeastward into far west Texas.
Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within a
weakly unstable airmass with the RAP showing MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
In addition, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots and low-level lapse rates are very steep over parts of far
west Texas. This environment may support a potential for isolated
severe wind gusts early this evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over southern Ontario. A line of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing ahead of a front across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Ahead of
the storms, a narrow axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
suggesting an isolated severe threat will continue for another hour
or so. The line is expected to weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters of Lake Superior later this evening.
...Northern Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota/Northwest Iowa/Southwest
Minnesota...
The latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate instability
located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Isolated
strong thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis from northeast
Nebraska into far northwest Iowa. Although deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates will continue to
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.
Hail may also occur with the stronger cells. As the low-level jet
increases across the central Plains later this evening, convective
coverage is expected to increase. A cluster of strong thunderstorms,
that is currently in northeast Colorado, is forecast to move
northeastward across southwest Nebraska. Isolated severe wind gusts
may occur with some of these storms.
...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
far eastern Pacific to the northwest of Washington. A trough extends
southward just off the coast of the Washington and Oregon, with
southwesterly mid-level flow located over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Within this flow, a pocket of weak instability is
analyzed by the RAP over northern Idaho and western Montana.
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for
isolated severe gusts.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2026
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