SPC Apr 17, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for
the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to
increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the
week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints
across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern
remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a
developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with
multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a
consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more
substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains.
At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe
weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.


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