RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to
move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico
throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave
will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it
moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of
the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.
Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will
occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the
low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to
the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by
early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of
this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e.
08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from
southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE
from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture.
Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60
kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of
these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level
stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely
hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate
the low-level stability as well.
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through
the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another
southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA.
Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the
frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some
deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.
...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.
Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday...
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast
into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on
D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and
progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A
deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley
toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared
convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday
morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the
southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually
overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these
regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward
extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of
the warm sector with time.
...D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday...
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to
limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the
wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize
severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
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