RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place
during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the
central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into
the Mid-South/Southeast.
...Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central
Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow
will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low
developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow
will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop
within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface
low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be
expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches
is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where
upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be
possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds
east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can
be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will
promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level
lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind
threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit
duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of
greater wind probabilities.
...Mid-South...
Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of
this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the
Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of
the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected
into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be
overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears
reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South
to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some
question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning.
Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on
observational trends.
...Arkansas...
Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow
and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the
Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the
intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with
southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
possible with the strongest activity.
...Northern Plains...
Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this
region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold
temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms
that develop in the surface trough.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.
Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.
...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.
..Broyles.. 06/01/2026
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