RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to
coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south
across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier
convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of
thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence
with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this
region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates,
should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or
two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained
near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest
medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude
Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next
weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more
unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the
Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms
of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses
south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of
the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to
modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return
could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend
into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive
of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface
cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,
the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of
limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
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