RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.
...20z Update...
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res guidance.
...Northern FL and southern AL/GA...
5% wind and hail probabilities were both expanded across the FL
Panhandle/northern FL into adjacent portions of southern AL and GA
ahead of a persistent strong thunderstorms. This cell has shown
signs of period intensification to severe levels, and a downstream
18z JAX sounding sampled adequate buoyancy within a MUCAPE gradient
for storm maintenance, as well as very strong (57 knot) effective
bulk shear that may support additional periods of intensification
through late afternoon (see MCD #671 for additional details).
...Southern MS/AL...
Minor expansions of the 5% hail/wind contours were made across
portions of southern MS and southwest AL. Elevated convection
developing across northern LA will likely spread east/southeast
during the 09-12 UTC period, and may pose a risk of large hail and
perhaps damaging gusts. While clustered storm modes will likely
modulate the overall severe threat, sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer
wind shear should be in place to support a few stronger cells.
...Oklahoma...
The early stages of convective initiation are well underway across
north-central OK with a more expansive cumulus field noted across
northwest OK ahead of a cold front (see MCD # 670 for additional
short-term details). Recent high-res solutions (notably recent runs
of the HRRR) compare reasonably well these convective trends and to
a recent 19 UTC OUN RAOB. This lends reasonably high confidence in
the evolution of the severe hail and wind threat across central to
north/northeast OK through mid-evening. Although the greatest severe
risk will likely materialize along and north of the I-44 corridor
over the next several hours, the somewhat marginal thermodynamic
environment and widely scattered convective signal in guidance
sufficiently limited confidence for higher risk (namely 30% hail)
probabilities. However, slight expansions of the 5% and Intensity
Level 1 hail contours were made to account for recent observed
trends.
..Moore.. 05/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/
...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas
into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX
northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as
large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf
Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
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