RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 03/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure over the Southeast and a dry airmass over the
Gulf Basin will result in a persistent stable environment east of
the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. A drier airmass is
also expected across south FL compared to previous days. Offshore
thunderstorms may approach the east-central FL coast tonight.
However, meager instability and nebulous forcing will likely limit
any thunderstorm coverage on land to less than 10 percent.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of
the Upper Midwest.
...Synopsis...
Some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
Saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the
western and central CONUS. A large-scale upper trough will remain in
place across much of the East, with a weak embedded shortwave
expected to move from the Mid MS Valley toward the Southeast.
...TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas...
A weak front that moves into the region late D2/Friday is forecast
to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a
surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central
Plains. A remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by
guidance to be draped from TN into the southern Appalachians and SC
by Saturday afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE
potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) will be possible along/south of
the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as
the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region.
Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak
northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited
due to weak large-scale ascent. As a result, confidence in an
organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities,
though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage
potential cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk may eventually be
needed for parts of the region.
..Dean.. 03/19/2026
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