RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.
...KS/MO...
Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.
While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this
scenario.
...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.
..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible
this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and
central Missouri.
...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.
...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.
...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.
..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026
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