RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have
been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest
observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in
coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary
low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector.
Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly
due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please
see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends).
However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of
the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as
upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the
Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection
continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments
capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain
possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.
..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.
Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF AL AND
EASTERN MS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep
South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple
tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A leading shortwave impulse over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
dampen as it moves quickly northeast, downstream of an amplifying
shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, aiding in
sharpening/acceleration of a trailing cold front on Tuesday night in
the Southeast.
...Deep South...
A high shear-low CAPE environment should be present across
southern/central MS into western AL, where remnants of early-morning
supercells may yield a lingering tornado threat beyond 12Z.
Convection should generally weaken into midday, in the wake of the
leading shortwave impulse departing the TN Valley. Diurnal
destabilization should occur following early-day convection, ahead
of the initially slow-moving cold front. With upper 60s surface dew
points nosing north from the central Gulf Coast, even modest
diabatic heating will sustain moderate buoyancy.
Guidance is consistent with suggesting scattered convection
along/ahead of the outflow-modulated cold front during the
afternoon, despite otherwise nebulous large-scale ascent. Deep-layer
wind fields are expected to be subsiding from strong values early,
but likely remaining adequate for semi-discrete supercell
structures. Modest mid-level lapse rates and expected mode may
curtail greater than isolated severe hail/damaging wind threats.
Tornado potential will be dependent on timing of afternoon
convective development and the degree of low-level hodograph
curvature reduction. But there is sufficient signal to warrant a
corridor of level 2-SLGT for the risk of a couple tornadoes from
lingering storms in the mid-morning and afternoon to early evening
redevelopment. Overall severe threat should become marginal by late
evening/overnight, but may persist on a very isolated basis
east/southward in GA to the FL Panhandle.
..Grams.. 11/24/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
An amplified shortwave trough will further deepen as it swings
across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Associated
deep surface cyclone will track across the central Great Lakes to
the Ottawa Valley. Downstream frontal occlusion should arc to a
weaker low moving across New England, with the leading cold front
trailing southward and exiting much of the Atlantic Seaboard by
Wednesday night.
...East...
Surface-based thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the
aforementioned front is expected to remain sparse on Wednesday,
limiting unconditional severe probabilities. Instability should be
weak north of south GA/north FL, where strong deep-layer shear will
be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned front.
Rather low-topped convection may precede the most pronounced
mid-level DCVA in the western/upstate NY vicinity on Wednesday
afternoon. While it may be insufficient to produce lightning amid
flimsy buoyancy, it could be accompanied by strong gusts along a
secondary surface frontal surge with a strengthening pressure
gradient in its wake.
..Grams.. 11/24/2025
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