RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.
...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel
west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great
Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast through the period.
At the same time, a related cold front will advance eastward across
the OH Valley during the afternoon, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coast during the overnight hours.
...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, focused within a pre-frontal trough extending
from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the lee of the southern
Appalachians. From roughly southern/eastern VA southward, upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints and steepening boundary-layer lapse rates
will yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storms. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited midlevel height
falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable air mass will
favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. Over the Mid-Atlantic region, stronger midlevel
westerly flow will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective shear amid
moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered damaging
wind gusts. Here, 30-percent wind probabilities remain in place, and
while a locally higher concentration of wind damage will be possible
with any longer-lived clusters that may evolve, this will be largely
dependent on mesoscale factors.
...Upper OH Valley into southern New England...
Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms will spread
eastward from the lower Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley and
southern New England during the afternoon into the evening hours.
Stronger midlevel height falls and around 40 kt of front-parallel
effective shear should favor a linear mode, with the primary concern
being strong-severe wind gusts.
...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail. Additional
storms are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central TX to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer shear
should limit storm longevity/organization here.
..Weinman/Halbert.. 06/14/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
...Synopsis...
Broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Monday. A surface front will be
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the Gulf
Coast states and into central/southwest TX.
...Southern Rockies/High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in southeast
CO/eastern NM and possibly as far east as western parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave
impulse is expected to move over the southern Rockies while
southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return
within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Southerly low-level
flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb
will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
High-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts,
with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across
eastern NM toward the Panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions.
Overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet
development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of
severe storms will be possible.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A shortwave impulse rotating across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass.
Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of
boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe
probabilities.
...Southeast...
Across the Southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the southward sagging surface front. Poor lapse rates will limit
stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
possible across southern AL/GA into northern FL. Thunderstorm
clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe
potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates,
and little large-scale ascent.
..Leitman.. 06/14/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest.
...Midwest...
An upper shortwave trough over the MO Valley will develop eastward
across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Tuesday. A stalled surface
front across the Gulf Coast region will suppress boundary-layer
moisture across the Midwest. Surface dewpoints are forecast to
generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. This will support MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg across
portions of the Mid-MS Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity. A weak
surface low is forecast to move across WI/Lower MI and a trailing
front will move across IL/IN and vicinity. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Sufficient shear
will exist for organized storms, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow
depicted in forecast soundings. Gusty winds and hail will be the
main hazards with this activity during the afternoon and evening.
Severe potential will diminish with eastward extent due to
decreasing boundary layer moisture and weakening instability toward
the Ohio Valley.
..Leitman.. 06/14/2026
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