RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.
...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.
This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.
...Carolinas...
Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.
...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning
satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to
east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.
...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.
...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026
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