RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.
...20z Update...
No categorical changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook.
A corridor of more favorable tornado potential is possible this
evening near the interface of the surface low and warm front across
far southeastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. Here,
within the warm sector cells may develop ahead of the cold front
within an region of enhanced low-level shear (given the placement of
the warm front and forecast increase in south-southwesterly
low-level jet). There are some complicating factors, such as ongoing
cloud cover and convection in the warm air advection regime this
morning. Some sheltered heating is ongoing with breaks in the cloud
cover, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg nosing in from the west. The 18z
soundings from Lamont, OK and Topeka, KS show this trend in
instability as well as enlarged/curved hodographs and strong 50 kt
flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict further enlargement of
low-level hodographs this evening, amid steep lapse rates and dew
points in the low to mid 60s, and STP values around 2. Given the
favorable parameter space, tornado probabilities were increased with
this outlook.
Otherwise, the Enhanced remains unchanged. See previous discussion
below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/
...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.
Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.
A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.
...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.
Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday
morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great
Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should
occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO
Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore
from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the
Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing
cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO
Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep
east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its
southern progression through early Sunday.
...OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath
along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the
central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening
surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in
vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately
downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop
from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley.
This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during
the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective
intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the
stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed
shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however
linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly
parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail
may occur in deeper updrafts.
...TX to the Deep South...
Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface
front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The
western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous
undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an
initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most
predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast
across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with
downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be
strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A
brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of
damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated
severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening,
but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing
severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast.
Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater
boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande,
should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow
will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist
sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite
front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the
evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary
hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a
meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of
very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2
delineation in later outlooks.
..Grams.. 03/06/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.
...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint
Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from
the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface
front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the
coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring
over the Southeast during the evening/night.
...Carolinas and southeast VA...
The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap
the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing
cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop
by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the
mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to
scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain
through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along
the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid
to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient
mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind
magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5
percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z
NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.
..Grams.. 03/06/2026
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