RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may affect south Florida this morning.
...South FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a persistent large upper trough
over the eastern states, with a significant shortwave trough digging
southeastward over LA/MS. This feature will quickly rotate across
the Gulf and approach FL by early afternoon. Strong large-scale
ascent ahead of the feature could be sufficient for showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the moist and marginally unstable airmass
along/ahead of a cold front over far southern FL, the Straits, and
near-shore waters. This threat will end by early afternoon as the
front moves off the east coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and
marginal instability should limit any severe threat.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/15/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on
Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in
most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but
weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms.
..Hart.. 01/15/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified
mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to
the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming
weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and
perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread
remains evident within and among the various model output concerning
shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts
on the downstream flow remain unclear.
In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf
Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening
belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific,
and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies
near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week.
However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface
cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the
period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland
destabilization.
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