RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional
thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.
...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.
..Hart/Marsh.. 02/10/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...20Z Update...
...OH Valley into the Mid-South...
Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an
associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through
northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold
front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and
overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is
likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so,
this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest
buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV,
where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and
ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between
modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and
cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy.
As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust
or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of
severe storms remains low.
...TX Trans-Pecos...
A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos
and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of
northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected.
...CA...
Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated
this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but
strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are
possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe
weather is not expected.
..Mosier.. 02/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/
...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional
thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.
...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
An upper-level low will move from the eastern Pacific to the Great
Basin on Wednesday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient
instability will develop from central California to the Great Basin
with scattered thunderstorm activity likely. The weak instability
and shear will preclude any severe weather potential.
East of the Rockies, high pressure and cool/dry air will limit
overall thunderstorm potential.
..Bentley.. 02/10/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level ridge will build across the southwest into the southern
Plains on Thursday. To the northeast of this ridge, surface high
pressure will build across the Midwest. The combination of these
stabilizing factors, in addition to low-level moisture mostly
suppressed into the Gulf, will limit the thunderstorm threat on
Thursday.
..Bentley.. 02/10/2026
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