RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also
likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to
track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a
history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a
diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through
the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS
propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over
the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over
southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and
drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS
Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should
compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool
driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail
producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are
poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a
swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into
central KS.
..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and
marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from
southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern
SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern
MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front
will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool
temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime
heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield
moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess
of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of
damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but
some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may
support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging
winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY
with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint
depressions may be less.
...Central to Southern High Plains...
Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region,
temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb
as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a
moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM.
Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and
extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this
activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear
will remain weak.
Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the
afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and
hail potential.
...Far southern GA and AL into northern FL...
An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and
into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and
into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass
will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg.
Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with
increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a
few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as
they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including
the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern
FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence,
with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 06/01/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered
strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High
Plains.
...Northern Plains...
Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a
shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds
of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt
as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will
move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing
a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg
with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some
forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid
to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the
Red River Valley and into northwest MN.
...Central Plains and into NM...
A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central
and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the
air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures
aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of
thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of
the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push
westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or
small hail.
..Jewell.. 06/01/2026
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