RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region.
...Carolinas/Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic States...
Multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest, within the
base of the broad upper trough centered over Canada/Great Lakes,
will progress east-northeastward with steady height falls and
strengthening flow aloft particularly for the Mid-Atlantic region
and Delmarva. Prevalent showers/some thunderstorms early today will
accompany an east/southeastward-moving cold front, but cloud breaks
should allow for pre-frontal heating particularly across the coastal
plain over the Carolinas and far southeast Virginia.
A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic
shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon,
a line of storms should develop and intensify along the cold front.
Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support linearly
organizing clusters/bands of storms, with a few damaging wind gusts
possible during the afternoon.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will be rather limited, thermodynamic
profiles may be sufficiently supportive of a few lightning flashes
late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin in vicinity of a
southeastward-spreading front. Gusty winds may also occur with this
convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and
strengthening northwesterly winds aloft.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINE
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm
development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from
the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface
high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge
of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is
forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of
the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening.
Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe
threat.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the
southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into
the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the
central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development.
Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and
to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated
severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently
destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into
Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an
upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model
spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial
distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the
timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons,
will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show
better agreement.
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