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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.
...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.
...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the
slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that
severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026
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