RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.
...Southern High Plains...
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level flow regime, lee side cyclogenesis
today will influence additional northward moistening regionally, in
the presence of low-level upslope trajectories with diurnal
differential heating along the higher terrain including the Raton
Mesa. Thunderstorms will develop/increase through mid/late afternoon
across eastern New Mexico/far southeast Colorado, and could expand
northeastward into southwest Kansas by evening. Modest buoyancy and
30-40 kt effective shear regionally will be supportive of a few
supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation
into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Isolated
instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts may occur
mainly late this afternoon through mid-evening.
...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Influenced by a clipper-type southeastward-digging shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a
southeastward-moving pre-frontal trough/cold front this afternoon.
While overall moisture/buoyancy will be limited, diurnally
steepening lapse rates and strengthening mid-level
west-northwesterly winds could yield some hail, and more so,
strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset.
...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
Some stronger pulse-type storms with gusty winds may occur this
afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment to the
south of a front. However, current expectations are for the
severe-storm risk to remain highly localized with organized severe
potential remaining limited overall.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/15/2026
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