RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A trio of shortwave troughs will rotate through the primary upper
trough over the central and eastern CONUS today, resulting in
significant amplification to the overall upper pattern. By early
tomorrow morning, deep upper troughing will cover the central and
eastern CONUS with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS as
well.
Lead shortwave trough within the trio is currently moving east
across the OH Valley with an attendant surface low over southern OH.
A cold front extends southwestward from this low into the northwest
Gulf. A stalled frontal zone also exists from the southern Delmarva
Peninsula into northwest NC. The cold front is forecast to move
quickly eastward throughout the day, while the stalled front
transitions into a warm front and moves northward into more of the
Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts
with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass from the FL
Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic States.
...FL Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic...
Filtered heating of the modestly moist airmass over the region will
result in airmass destabilization. Poor lapse rates will limit
buoyancy, but the overall buoyancy should still be sufficient for
deep updrafts, particularly from the central FL Panhandle into
northern FL/southern GA where the highest temperatures are
anticipated. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front as it quickly moves eastward across the region. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southern GA, with
decreasing coverage with northern extent.
Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well,
supporting the potential for organized storm structures. However,
front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear suggest a linear
mode, with the fast-moving front likely undercutting updrafts
quickly. Even so, a few damaging gusts are possible, particularly
with any bowing structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated
hail is possible as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity
where buoyancy is greatest.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/09/2025
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