RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.
...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.
Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.
Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.
Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.
...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/05/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.
...20z Update...
No changes have been made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this
update.
Visible satellite continues to show continued mid-level cloud cover
across the far eastern Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma. A warm
front has shifted northward across central Oklahoma, with 60F dew
points as far north as a line from the Oklahoma City Metro to Tulsa
and northeast OK. Dew points in the Texas Panhandle are also slowly
increasing, with mid to upper 50s. Breaks in the clouds are
increasing across this region, with filtered heating and
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to 70s on the western edge of
the cloud cover. Cu development is noted across the dryline in far
western TX/eastern NM. Steady cumulus development is ongoing across
the southern Texas Panhandle into western OK, with billow clouds
downstream of Cap Rock from Motley, Childress, and Cottle Counties
indicative of continued low-level stability, which is noted in the
18z sounding from AMA.
Thunderstorm development is expected near/just east of the Caprock
Escarpment with a few more hours of additional daytime heating by
late afternoon (4-6 PM CST as mentioned below). Initial development
is expected to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very
large hail. Strengthening of the low-level jet and resulting
increase in low-level shear through the evening will enlarge
hodographs, with an increasing risk for tornadoes, with potential of
a strong tornado (EF2+).
Additional thunderstorm development may also occur across the length
of the dryline into west Texas where a Marginal Risk was maintained.
A Marginal Risk also continues across the Ohio Valley. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.
Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.
Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.
Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.
...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.
...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.
A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night.
...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.
..Grams.. 03/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses
will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. A closed
low over the Lower CO Valley will further retrograde to west of Baja
CA. A surface cyclone over eastern Upper MI at 12Z Saturday will
deepen as it rapidly progresses into QC. A full-latitude cold front
will arc southwestward, crossing the eastern Great Lakes and Midwest
on Saturday. The trailing portion will slow its southern movement
over TX and likely be modulated by convective outflows.
...TX to the Lower MS Valley...
Primary changes are to add a CIG1 area for very large hail potential
in TX, and shift/expand the cat 2-SLGT risk north-northeast per
latest guidance.
While TX will largely remain within a flat to low-amplitude
mid-level ridge between the aforementioned troughs/lows well to its
north and west, seasonably rich low-level moisture atop an
undercutting cold front should support regenerative convection
through much of the period. With the west-southwesterly mid-level
flow regime, steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained over the
pre-convective warm sector. Low-level flow will become increasingly
weak and diffluent, yielding a favorable deep-layer wind profile for
hail growth. Primary uncertainty is the degree of surface-based
development towards late afternoon/early evening along the composite
front/outflow. Current indications are that CIG2-type giant hail
potential might evolve with more discrete/isolated convection in the
south-central TX vicinity. For now, will incrementally add a CIG1
and defer to later outlooks for a possible categorical upgrade.
Farther east-northeast across the Lower MS Valley, clusters may be
consolidating into line segments by mid-late morning Saturday. These
may yield an increase in mainly damaging wind and brief tornado
potential as the warm/moist sector destabilizes downstream. An
extensive swath of widespread convection is anticipated during the
afternoon. But this should become increasingly aligned with the
deep-layer shear vector. In conjunction with decreasing low-level
hodograph curvature, setup may only favor sporadic damaging winds
before storm intensities wane after sunset.
...OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
No adjustment has been made to the level 2-SLGT risk area. At least
scattered convection should be ongoing upstream over parts of the
Midwest and Mid-South along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
This activity may not entirely decay, with renewed storm development
possible along the large-scale outflow that will probably remain
displaced appreciably east of the front. Where adequate insolation
can occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates, an uptick in storm
intensity should occur midday into the afternoon. Overall amplitudes
still seem to favor non-significant severe, but a scattering of
damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated marginally severe
hail all appear plausible. These threats should wane after sunset
and with eastern extent towards the Appalachians.
..Grams.. 03/05/2026
Read more
