RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026/
...SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold
front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe
storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the
Great Basin.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A deep, positively tilted upper trough is expected to extend from
the northern Intermountain West southwestward off the central CA
Coast and into the eastern Pacific early Thursday. This trough is
forecast to progress slowly southeastward throughout the day, while
trending towards a more neutral tilt as a strong shortwave trough
rounds its base. Another embedded shortwave trough is expected to
move southward along the central CA coast before pivoting more
southeastward towards southern CA late Thursday/early Friday.
Overall evolution of this system will likely result in troughing
from the western Great Basin into the west-central Pacific by 12Z
Friday.
Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected from the Great Basin
into the central Rockies downstream of this deepening trough.
Additionally, persistent southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to
some low-level moistening beneath these cooling mid-level
temperatures. Combination of these factors will result in modest
buoyancy and deep/persistent enough updrafts for isolated lightning
flashes. Highest coverage is expected across north-central UT.
Surface ridging is expected across much of the central and eastern
CONUS early Thursday, although a weak surface low will likely be
over southeast CO. This low may deepen slightly throughout the day
while also dropping gradually southward in northeast NM and the
northwest TX Panhandle. Some modest moisture return is anticipated
east/southeast of this low across central/east TX and the Lower MS
Valley, with low 60s dewpoints forecast along the TX Gulf Coast by
Friday morning. However, warm temperatures aloft will preclude deep
convection within this modifying airmass.
..Mosier.. 02/11/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas.
...Synopsis...
Positively tilted upper troughing is expected to extend from the
western Great Basin southwestward into the east-central Pacific
Ocean early Friday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to be
embedded within this larger troughing. The southernmost shortwave
trough expected to progress quickly eastward through the base of the
parent troughing before then pivoting more northeastward at it moves
into the eastern periphery of the troughing over northern Mexico.
The northernmost shortwave trough will be less progressive at it
moves across southern CA and the Lower CO Valley. Evolution of the
system will likely result in a relatively consolidated
southern-stream trough extending from the central High Plains
southwestward through northern Mexico by early Saturday.
...West TX...
Downstream mass response will result in considerable airmass
modification across the southern Plains ahead of this system, with
upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching through much of west TX by
Friday evening. Afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low
70s, which will combine with the increasing moisture and cooling
mid-level temperatures to support modest buoyancy (i.e. 500 to 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE). The stronger forcing for ascent associated with the
approaching wave will likely lag peak heating slightly, but a few
surface-based storms are still possible amid weak capping and
low-level convergence. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
modest low-level southeasterlies and moderate/strong southwesterlies
aloft, suggest that any storms that do develop could organize and
become severe. Large hail would be the primary hazard.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase as stronger ascent
associated attendant to the approaching wave and a strengthening
low-level jet arrives during the evening. Given anticipated
nocturnal stabilization, much of this activity will likely be
elevated, but strong deep-layer shear could still support updrafts
capable of isolated hail.
...Northwest TX into OK...
Strengthening low-level southerly flow and moistening low levels
ahead of the approaching wave will contribute to increasing showers
and thunderstorms from northwest TX into much of OK Friday evening
and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in weak
buoyancy, but moderate vertical shear could still contribute to a
few stronger updrafts capable of small hail. Severe coverage in this
area is currently expected to be less than 5%.
..Mosier.. 02/11/2026
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