RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.
...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.
...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.
...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.
..Hart/Halbert.. 07/03/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will be located over eastern Canada, with southern
periphery sweeping across the Northeast with 30 kt midlevel
westerlies extending as far south as PA/NJ. To the west, a weak
upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains, with
embedded disturbances related to thunderstorms into parts of the
Midwest. Relatively cool temperatures aloft will exist across the
Plains region, aiding destabilization.
At the surface, a trough will extend from the TX Panhandle into MO,
IL, and IN, with a moist and unstable air mass nearby. Easterly
winds north of this trough will maintain moderate moisture levels
into the central High Plains. A surface trough will also deepen over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic during the day, providing a focus for
storms during the afternoon from VA into PA/NJ.
...PA...VA...MD...DE...NJ...
Substantial moisture and instability will exist across the region,
with tall CAPE profiles and 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE common with 70s F
dewpoints and daytime heating. Storms may develop in several areas,
including southern NY into PA and OH, and, within the trough VA into
PA/NJ.
CAMs generally suggest scattered cells developing by mid afternoon
over much of VA and into PA, MD, DE and NJ. Scattered wind gusts of
40-50 kt appear likely, with isolated stronger gusts. Weak
westerlies aloft may support slow east/southeastward moving cells.
...CO...NE...KS...
Scattered storms are forecast to develop from southeast WY into the
Front Range, as well as western NE, during the afternoon beneath
cool temperatures aloft and where low-level easterlies will aid
moisture advection into the heated air mass. Directional shear may
favor a few cells capable of severe hail, including near the
Colorado Springs area. Addition cells or clusters may spread
southeastward across western NE and northwest KS, with damaging
gusts possible.
A more substantial severe risk may develop into south-central KS and
perhaps far northern OK late in the day. Here, locally larger SRH
will exist north of a weak surface low. Instability will be large as
temperatures warm into the 90s F and dewpoints remain in the upper
60s F. Veering wind with height and effective shear near 40 kt
suggest a few supercells initially, with large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. During the
evening, CAMs suggest an MCS may develop, dropping southeastward
across southern KS, including the Wichita area, and into northern
OK. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern.
...Parts of Central MO...
CAM signals are mixed with timing of convective systems near the
surface trough. However, strong instability will be present across
the entire region. Depending on later model output, the Slight Risk
may need to be extended farther into MO/I-70 corridor as
predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
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