RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain
possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western
and central Missouri.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major
changes or additions made to the outlook.
..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/
...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.
...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.
...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a
cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a
weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great
Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the
Dakotas and into southern Canada.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into
the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and
toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain
from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far
north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas.
...Northern to Central High Plains...
Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will
reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel
lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to
westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few
supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into
the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very
strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes.
Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and
southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with
50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late
afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible
as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal.
...Northern FL and Vicinity...
A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids
moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around
the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support
mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern
FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may
produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells
may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively
stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop
along the east coast sea breeze.
..Jewell.. 05/31/2026
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