RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.
...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern CO through this evening, which will
promote continued northward transport of low-level moisture across
TX into OK/KS. A surface dryline will also extend southward from the
low over the southern High Plains. Daytime heating of this moist
airmass and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support
the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon along/east of the dryline. Most guidance continues to
suggest that convective temperatures will be reached by 21-23Z
across the southern High Plains.
While large-scale ascent will remain fairly nebulous, current
expectations are for increasing low-level convergence along the
dryline and a strengthening southerly low-level jet to encourage
convective initiation across the eastern TX Panhandle and vicinity.
Forecast deep-layer shear around 40 kt will easily support
supercells with an associated threat for large to very large hail
initially (potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter). Increasing
low-level shear through the evening will also foster enlarged
low-level hodographs and the potential for a few tornadoes with this
activity. With time this evening, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern OK and southern/central
KS.
Isolated severe hail may occur tonight with elevated convection
farther north in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern
NE/ northwest MO into IA. Farther south, isolated supercells may
also occur along the length of the dryline across west TX late this
afternoon/evening, with associated threat for occasional large hail
and severe gusts. However, confidence in any more than isolated
coverage remains low due to weak large-scale forcing.
...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the OH Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote
occasional damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that can
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the FL Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures will remain relatively cool. Scattered
convection appear probable along the western FL Peninsula during the
afternoon where low-level convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast owing to weak deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/05/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect
northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this
airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place.
Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days,
isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest
potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the
Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast
to be maximized.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across
northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much
of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast
over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent
associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over
the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered
thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the
progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow
is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This
suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm
development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is
expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the
upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is
forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon.
Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a
severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing
of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the
system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday,
then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also
develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western
Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be
possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front
passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
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