RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For much of the D4-D8 period, an upper trough is forecast to reside
over the Northeast, with high pressure over the Great Lakes and much
of the Midwest to Mid Atlantic. West of this surface high, southerly
winds across the Plains will maintain a moist air mass with 60s and
70s F dewpoints prevalent.
In the upper levels, a weak negatively tilted trough will shift
slowly northward across the northern Plains & Rockies on Sunday/D4
and Monday/D5, providing cooler temperatures aloft and slightly
stronger wind speeds. Farther south into the central and southern
Plains, winds aloft will be even weaker, however, the midlevels will
remain relatively cool, supporting areas of strong instability due
to steep lapse rates aloft.
In general, areas of strong thunderstorms appear likely on a daily
basis across much of the Plains during the peak heating hours. Areas
of severe storms will be possible as well due to the widespread
2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized hail & wind potential where
clusters develop. The NE/KS/OK/MO area in particular will be within
the heart of the instability axis, with 3000-4000 J/kg possible.
Predictability is low in this pattern due to lack of large-scale
forcing, and the fact that clusters of storms may persist overnight
as various outflow boundaries affect storm potential each subsequent
day. However, smaller/more focused areas of potential may become
evident in subsequent outlook cycles.
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