RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
With an amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS, an upper low
will continue to cross the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior, with
preceding warm/moist advection and DPVA contributing to isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes region, mainly early
today.
In the West, a band of convection will continue to move inland early
this morning across coastal southern California in association with
a cold front. Diminishing convective potential is otherwise expected
today across most of California. However, isolated thunderstorm will
be possible later this afternoon and tonight across the coastal
Pacific Northwest and northern California as a secondary shortwave
trough digs southward along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
mainly this afternoon. Here, sufficient diurnal mixing and a zone of
stronger mid-level southwesterly flow aloft could account for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts, but overall severe potential
should remain minimal.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/18/2026
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