RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.
...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be
supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.
...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
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