RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.
...Southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the
central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley today and tonight. As this
occurs, a swath of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
overspread portions of the southern Plains to the OH Valley. Height
falls will remain modest with this system, resulting in on a weak
surface wave migrating northeast along a quasi-stationary baroclinic
zone/surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front,
southerly return flow will support dewpoints climbing into the low
60s F. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around
7-8 C/km will foster MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
(possibly higher toward North TX where stronger heating is
expecting).
Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized
convection. However, storm mode may tend to be somewhat messy given
broad ascent within the warm advection regime near the surface
boundary. Additionally, morning convection and cloudiness could
hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization. Nevertheless, a
broad area of severe storm potential exists. First with elevated
convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into
MO and southern IL. By afternoon, surface-based convection will be
more likely closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and
clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Where stronger heating
occurs, some wind damaging potential will also materialize within
steepened low-level lapse rates. A low-end tornado risk will also
accompany supercells near the surface boundary, especially where
stronger heating can occur.
..Leitman/Chalmers.. 03/04/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.
...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.
Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.
...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central
Iowa...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.
..Broyles.. 03/04/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains
north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line
segment.
...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.
..Broyles.. 03/04/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains
southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A
cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern
Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F
with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe
threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable
concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current
thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two
areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into
northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A
15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in
later outlooks.
On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the
western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal
severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.
...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday
across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture
return is forecast to take place over the southern and central
Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be
possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be
possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any
severe threat will be the greatest.
On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an
upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An
associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of
the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the
trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This
combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered
severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe
threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central
Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the
Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as
the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is
considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this
extended range.
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