RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great
Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight.
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the
cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak
forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional
12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and
buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of
sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures
around 600 mb.
A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will
spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds,
but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely.
Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern
Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient
for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the
threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.
Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX
through about midday until the cold front moves southward into
Mexico.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep
southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.
...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.
..Lyons.. 11/26/2025
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