RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.
...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.
Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.
...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
..Guyer/Moore.. 06/23/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was a westward expansion of
severe probabilities (including the ENH) toward the higher terrain
in southern/central CO. Rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) along the western edge of convectively reinforced
outflow in the central High Plains will spread westward beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates toward the higher terrain through this
afternoon into tonight -- in response to a passing midlevel wave to
the north. This rich moisture/outflow and enhanced easterly upslope
flow should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along
the higher terrain into this evening. Around 50 kt of effective
shear and strong surface-based buoyancy will promote supercells
capable of producing very large hail along the I-25 corridor.
Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made to the outlook, to
include trimming severe probabilities behind eastward-spreading
convection in the Mid-Atlantic, and a southward expansion of
probabilities in the southern Plains (ahead of southward-moving
thunderstorm clusters).
..Weinman.. 06/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/
...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.
Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.
...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.
...Synopsis...
Strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level
wave moving out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba will overspread the central
Rockies on D2/Wednesday. A surface low will be located across
northern Wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending
southward into the central high Plains. Lee cyclogenesis is progged
late in the period across eastern Colorado/western Kansas in
response to the increased westerly flow across the central Rockies.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high
terrain in the central/southern High Plains before moving into the
central/southern Plains by the evening. More isolated severe storms
are possible near the surface low in Wisconsin, across portion of
the Ozarks to Mississippi, and northern Utah.
...Central/Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the
upslope flow across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming
Wednesday afternoon. This will support initial supercell modes with
development into the afternoon. Easterly surface flow becoming
westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level
curvature of hodographs. Large to very large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. Damaging
wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along
outflow and spread eastwards. The Slight was shifted further
eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle to account for this downstream
potential.
...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...
Confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions
of Oklahoma Tuesday night is decreasing. It remains possible that an
MCS will be ongoing towards the beginning of the D2/Wednesday period
shifting eastward into portions of Arkansas by day break. It is
possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be
ongoing across portions of eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. For
now, a Marginal Risk was maintained across this area for potential
for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of
convection overnight.
...Upper Great Lakes...
Filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow
for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across
portions of the western Great Lakes. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger
mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the
strongest updrafts.
...Northern Utah...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Wednesday, with weak to moderate instability
progged by the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed
sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable
of damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very
large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for
portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on
Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Embedded waves within a predominately zonal flow pattern and broad
westerly flow aloft will extend across the central Rockies into the
central/southern Plains on D3/Thursday. At the surface, a low will
deepen and shift eastward across western Texas into eastern Oklahoma
with attendant frontal boundary extending eastward across northern
Oklahoma into the Missouri and Ohio Valley.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma as a
shortwave trough rotates through the pattern. Afternoon thunderstorm
development will focus along the residual outflow/frontal boundary.
Guidance suggests that though residual cloud cover may remain behind
the morning convection, strong heating/destabilization should occur
near the two boundaries into the afternoon. Strong deep layer shear
around 40-50 kts should support supercell modes with potential for
large to very large hail and damaging wind. With the deepening of
the surface low, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase to
around 40-50 kts into the afternoon/evening, which will enlarge
low-level hodographs and lead to increasing tornado potential. There
remains some uncertainty in the exact axis and strength of the
low-level jet at this time.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with the combination
of easterly upslope flow and upper-level forcing for ascent across
portions of eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Moderate instability and
strong deep layer shear will support supercells capable of large to
very large hail and damaging wind. Storms will eventually cluster
and move eastward, with potential for a few instances of damaging
wind into western NE/KS.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
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