RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and
central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk
into the late evening/overnight.
...20z Update...
The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities
across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in
the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic
shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX
into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z
RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through
late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to
erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in
regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat
through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains
highest across southern MS where convection originating in central
LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment
(where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to
undercutting by the cold front later this evening.
..Moore.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.
The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated
large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle
Rio Grand Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on
Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley
and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push
south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front
stalling near the central Gulf Coast.
To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern
Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at
the surface but elevated instability in place.
...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front
Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the
Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into
central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind
gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as
SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level
winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in
the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.
...Middle Rio Grande Vicinity...
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection
above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm
development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of
the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail
potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated
instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer
conditionally favor hail.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS
Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio
Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.
At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.
To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward
toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe
probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2026
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