RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.
..Darrow.. 02/22/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
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