RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and a conditional tornado threat are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
northern Mid Atlantic region.
... Overview ...
A weak shortwave trough will gradually amplify today as fast
west-northwesterly flow translates across the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through
the Ohio Valley, with a series of weak frontal waves moving eastward
into the Mid-Atlantic.
... Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ...
Favorable deep-layer shear will be in place across the area as
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates advect into the region,
originating within an unseasonably hot and well-mixed airmass across
the Southwest and central US. The key uncertainty regarding severe
potential will be how aggressively moisture returns. Strong
antecedent heating and mixing upstream may limit moistening across
the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, but relatively cool
midlevel temperatures should still support moderate buoyancy.
Storms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the surface front
across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, where modest warm advection
and a weakening cap favor development. Moderate instability combined
with the favorable wind profile will support a supercell threat.
Large hail -- potentially greater than golf balls -- will be
possible with any sustained supercell. Damaging winds are also
possible, particularly where surface heating is maximized and steep
low-level lapse rates can develop. With time, the surging cold front
should undercut thunderstorms, limiting the potential for a more
organized, widespread damaging wind event. The low-level wind field
will support some tornado potential before thunderstorms are
undercut, with the tornado threat tied closely to how aggressively
the boundary layer moisture returns.
An additional round of convection is expected to develop during the
late afternoon into the overnight hours as the front surges
south-southeastward. This activity is likely to be post-frontal and
elevated in nature, but given strong cloud-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates, severe hail will still be possible with these
later storms.
..Marsh.. 03/22/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts
of the Carolinas and Georgia.
...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on
Monday, as a cold front advances southward through the Carolinas.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the front will
contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm and
low-level convergence increases along the front, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form. These cells will move
southeastward toward the coast during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far
southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is
forecast.
...DISCUSSION...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Tuesday
across much of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southward to near the central Gulf Coast and northern
Florida. As surface heating and low-level convergence increase near
the front, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible. No
severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 03/22/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as
northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the
eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it
moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is
forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability
is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development
will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the
stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into
north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward
across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe
threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat
is still uncertain.
...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move
southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front
both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any
severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the
continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
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