RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
...South Florida...
Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the
upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong
surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most
part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore
around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep
convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor
lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look
favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly
buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the
southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10
percent.
..Darrow.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the
central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge
along the west coast. Model guidance suggests that low-level
moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable
conditions. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.
..Hart.. 01/14/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level
troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be
maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent
ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even
as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent
westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may
continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold
surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become
less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf
Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that
low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive
of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by
Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not
yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or
become particularly strong.
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