RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...20z Update...
Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based
on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be
initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed
by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across
eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK. Given the
prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent
surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale
corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop,
however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors
will be give the expectation of upscale growth. For additional
short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.
..Moore.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.
General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.
A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.
Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.
Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.
Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.
...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.
...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION OF PANHANDLE
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of
the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the
eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the
north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.
At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern
Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the
Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the
aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
... Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle ...
Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some
potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS
capable of producing isolated damaging winds.
... Northern Gulf Coast States ...
Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the
sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass
should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well
south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential
should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water
values and the number of storms across the region may support an
isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less
than 5%.
... Northern/Central Plains ...
Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area,
strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum
moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support
isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be
possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain
fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 06/13/2026
Read more
