RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri.
...Southern Plains/Central MO...
Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to
eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max
translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will
progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the
surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful
cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the
synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the
overnight hours.
Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into
the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be
breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However,
forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the
dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating
will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based.
Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the
day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much
colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings
suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely
during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the
strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a
corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms
may generate severe hail.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern
Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the
primary threats.
...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward
across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the
surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across
north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface
temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support
convective initiation along the front during the mid to late
afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the
front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early
evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
organize along and ahead of the front.
Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith,
Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear
up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8
C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail,
especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be
discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should
organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage
potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should
persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a
low-level jet strengthens.
...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday
across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and
instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of
instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will
create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and
near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be
around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present.
In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep,
generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an
isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal
wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi
Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/03/2026
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