RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.
...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.
...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.
30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.
..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the
southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western
Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend
east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day
near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by
00Z.
Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from
southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early
afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization,
relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall
threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited.
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited.
Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.
...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.
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