RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.
...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.
..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.
...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.
...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.
...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.
..Hart/Moore.. 06/22/2026
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