RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge centered across the Rockies will become less
amplified through the period as a strong mid-level jet moves from
the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. A surface low will
emerge across the northern Plains by this evening. Strengthening
southerly flow ahead of this surface low will moisten regions from
the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
...Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough (evident at both 850mb and 500mb)
will move through the Ohio Valley tonight. As isentropic ascent
strengthens ahead of this trough, thunderstorms are expected.
Instability will remain quite weak (<500 J/kg) and therefore, no
severe weather threat is anticipated, despite strong deep-layer
shear.
...Florida....
Thunderstorms are expected across the central Florida peninsula
today, particularly along the sea breeze on the west side of the
peninsula. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps
could support some stronger storms, especially given the well-mixed
boundary layer across the region. However, weak effective shear
(mostly 20 knots or less) should limit the overall severe weather
threat.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are possible across northeast Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and western Nebraska, parts of the northern
Plains, and western Washington. However, these storms should remain
isolated and pose minimal severe weather threat.
..Bentley/Wendt.. 03/25/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be
possible.
...Synopsis...
Latest GOES water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave encroaching
upon the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and southern British
Columbia as it rounds the apex of a stout upper ridge situated over
the West. This feature is expected to migrate eastward over the next
48 hours, reaching the Great Lakes region by late Thursday.
Early-morning surface observations reveal the early stages of lee
cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains with a long fetch of
southerly flow from the TX Gulf Coast into the Plains. While
moisture return is currently fairly weak, a plume of upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints will spread northeastward into the Midwest/OH
Valley by Thursday afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold
front. Strong forcing along the front within a destabilizing air
mass, combined with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upper
wave, will promote scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across
portions of the Midwest and OH Valley Thursday afternoon and
evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon across the
southern Lake Michigan region as the cold front begins to impinge on
a plume of returning moisture. Stout capping at the base of an EML
will likely limit initial storm coverage, and elongated hodographs
(featuring 40-50 knot effective bulk shear values) will promote
organization of discrete/semi-discrete supercells for at least an
hour or two. Given the very favorable convective environment
(characterized by SCP values upwards of 8-12), large to very large
(2-3 inches in diameter) hail appears possible. However, it remains
unclear how long storm modes will remain discrete with latest HRRR,
RRFS, and MPAS solutions all suggesting relatively quick upscale
growth along the front by early evening. These solutions appear
reasonable given strong frontal ascent and deep-layer flow
predominantly along the boundary. This may modulate the
duration/coverage of the significant hail threat, and would favor a
scattered severe wind threat downstream into IN and OH.
Regardless, 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH immediately ahead of the
front will support some threat for tornadoes, including the
potential for a significant tornado if supercells can be maintained
just ahead of the front. Additionally, the consensus among HREF/REFS
solutions is a northward shift in the primary severe risk corridor
towards northern IL/IN, southern lower MI, and northwest OH. 15%
hail and wind probabilities were adjusted accordingly. More isolated
strong/severe storms appear possible with southwestward extent along
the front into central MO, but confidence in storm coverage west of
the MS River is limited due to displacement from the richer moisture
and stronger upper-level ascent.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into
the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.
...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential on Friday will primarily be focused along and
ahead of a strong synoptic cold front that is forecast to push from
the upper OH Valley early Friday southward into the Southeast
through Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are likely at the
start of the period along the frontal zone, but thunderstorm
potential should wane from west to east through the day as the front
migrates into an environment with poor mid-level lapse rates south
of the OH Valley. Seasonally high dewpoints (mid to upper 50s)
coupled with daytime heating across the Carolinas into southern VA
will likely yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (100-250 J/kg MLCAPE
and lifted indices around -1 C) where thunderstorm re-development is
probable by late afternoon. Despite strong mid-level flow over the
region, paltry buoyancy will likely limit updraft intensities and
the overall severe threat. This idea is supported by recent
extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, which show very limited
convective signals over the Carolinas.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend,
though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by
the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on
D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the
eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions
for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight
re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the
Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the
southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a
reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the
upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high
pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote
moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of
GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of
slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time
frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through
mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly
predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the
northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range
guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the
D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS
Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing
cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through
next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective
environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too
limited to warrant highlights at this time.
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