RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes today...
* LOCATIONS...
Northern and Central Illinois
Northern and Eastern Missouri
Eastern Iowa
Southern and Eastern Wisconsin
Northwest Indiana
Lower Michigan
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a couple intense
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern
Missouri, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower
Michigan and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for
widespread/intense damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,
some of which may be strong to intense.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern Missouri,
northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower Michigan and
northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Portions of the region have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk.
Another very active day with widespread/intense severe storms is
expected regionally. A consequential severe risk is already ongoing
this morning across Iowa/far northern Missouri, and will continue
east-northeastward and become more prominent regionally during the
day. A well-organized/eastward-accelerating bowing cluster of
storms, now supported by an apparent MCV, has had a history of
measured severe-caliber wind gusts overnight and in the predawn
hours from southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa. A similar severe
risk should continue east-northeastward through midday across
eastern Iowa/far northeast Missouri toward northern Illinois, with
more of a surface-based/tornado risk potentially unfolding
relatively early today aside from a continued prominent damaging
wind threat.
Scenario is supported by a robust southwesterly low-level
jet/moisture transport, even with some diurnal weakening of the
low-level jet possible. Also influential is a prominent/increasingly
neutral-tilt-shortwave trough and jet streak crossing the Corn Belt,
notably strong features by mid-June standards.
Convective overturning/outflow from last evening's MCS are still
residual factors evident this morning in observational
data/supplemental 3D mesoanalysis across far eastern Iowa, far
northeast Missouri into central Illinois. This is sampled by the 12z
observed sounding from KILX/Lincoln, IL. These residual factors may
somewhat southward-focus the peak/most-intense severe weather later
today, with more uncertainty progressively northward in general
proximity to Lake Michigan latitudinally, including parts of
Wisconsin/Michigan. The timing/residual impacts of this morning's
MCS across Iowa/northern Missouri into northern Illinois and severe
potential in its wake near the surface low and front, and/or to its
(MCS) north-northeast are a bit less uncertain. That said, mass
response/fluxes related to the dynamic shortwave trough/speed max
will be notable and consistent with heightened severe-potential even
if outflow/cloud debris exists and sub-regional areas of
destabilization are sub-optimal.
Details of later-afternoon severe potential is somewhat contingent
on how the morning MCS further evolves, but a window for
redevelopment in its immediate wake will probably exist. This will
lead to a renewed round of severe storms as development occurs near
the cold front, and perhaps preferentially favors prior outflow,
with a damaging wind and tornado risk continuing eastward this
evening as the low-level jet re=intensifies and as storms gradually
grow upscale toward Lake Michigan and across Illinois/Indiana/Lower
Michigan.
...Eastern Kansas and Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the trailing
cold front into portions of the central/southern Plains. Deep layer
shear will be maximized in the post-frontal environment; however,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support some supercell structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Storm motions and boundary parallel shear
will likely lead to clustering and messy modes over time.
...Mid-Atlantic ad central Appalachians...
Forcing for ascent from multiple shortwave disturbances across the
northeast and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F will support development
of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though vertical shear
will be generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in
place will support stronger updrafts capable of damaging winds. It
is likely that several clusters will emerge with potential for
organizing along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging
wind potential.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/11/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday...
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough
and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great
Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave
trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the
Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the
trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and
TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold
front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass
destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled
with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable
for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially
into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Day 5/Monday...
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will
progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt
of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the
primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX
and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level
winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop
along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear
is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and
southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the
low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist
in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
...Day 6/Tuesday...
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a
mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the
lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of
the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary
surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast
states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent
and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather
appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the
potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
...Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday...
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level
jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that
feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At
the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering
across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across
the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return
of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the
surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe
weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and
perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
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