RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper
Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the
southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley,
parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
...20Z Update...
No major changes were made to the outlook with this update. In the
wake of earlier convective overturning in north-central/northeast
SD, cloud breaks are supporting diurnal heating and gradual
boundary-layer recovery. This, combined with a strengthening
low-level jet into this evening, will promote some northward
movement of an east/west-oriented surface boundary currently draped
across southern/central SD. This boundary may be the focus for a few
supercells later this evening, though it is unclear if this activity
will develop on the immediate cool side of the boundary or in the
moist/unstable warm sector. If these storms can develop into the
warm sector, they could pose a locally greater risk of large hail,
damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes -- given ample low-level
hodograph curvature. However, given a large component of
boundary-parallel deep-layer shear and strengthening warm advection,
storms may tend to grow upscale and pose mainly a severe-wind risk.
Additionally, there is a scenario where a severe MCS could emerge
from this activity or storms forming to the west as they track
along/south of the boundary in the strongly unstable warm sector.
However, confidence in this scenario is too low for higher
severe-probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...MN...WI...IA...
As the tail end of a shortwave trough sweeps across the region,
storms will likely be ongoing Wed morning near and north of a
quasi-stationary front extending from southern MN into northern WI
and MI, in an area of veered 850 mb winds providing a feed of
elevated instability. This activity should transition to surface
based during the day as heating occurs to the south of the boundary,
with area of damaging wind potential.
Additional storms likely to develop during the afternoon farther
southwest along the front, where moderate instability and marginal
shear will exist. Some clusters of storms may produce damaging wind
gusts, and isolated marginal hail may occur.
...Central Plains...
Weak height falls may occur late in the day into the northern and
central Plains as a weak disturbance moves across the northern
Rockies. Low pressure is likely to develop into western KS, with
weak lee troughing into eastern WY. Relatively cool midlevel
temperatures, sufficient moisture and east/northeast surface winds
suggest a corridor of afternoon storms over the from eastern WY into
CO, with 30 kt effective shear supporting areas of hail and locally
damaging gusts. Some of this activity may cluster and move into NE
and KS overnight, possibly linking with other storms as they
propagate southwestward along the boundary in eastern to southern
NE. Area of damaging wind gusts appear most likely.
..Jewell.. 07/07/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the
central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valleys, and over parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through
Thursday night.
...Central Plains...
Modest 20-30 kt westerlies will exist across the High Plains, with
the stronger wind speeds from MT into ND. Temperatures aloft will
remain seasonably cool with -8 to -10 C from CO into MT. Storms are
forecast to develop over eastern WY and CO after 21Z near the Front
Range where heating will be strong, and spread across western NE,
KS, and the OK Panhandle late. An MCS may develop into KS, where
stronger instability will persist. Large hail appears probable with
the initial activity, before transitioning to mainly damaging wind.
The steep lapse rates aloft will support robust storms propagating
into the backed boundary layer easterlies.
...MO eastward across IL, IN, KY...
Persistent west to southwest winds near 850 mb will maintain a
theta-e plume as a weak upper trough moves across the region. Early
day storms are possible moving out of KS, and some reorganization is
possible as the air mass destabilizes with locally damaging gusts.
Afternoon activity is also expected from lower MI into northern IL,
and this may increase in coverage overnight across IL and IN,
perhaps into KY. Shear will be marginal in all areas, with a moist
and unstable air mass. Predictability is low for this setup, but a
large area of at least isolated severe gust potential is evident.
...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A low-amplitude feature aloft with 35 kt midlevel winds is forecast
to move across the Appalachians and into VA/NC area during the day.
Meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the afternoon with a
moist air mass contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The increased
winds and deep shear may aid storm longevity somewhat, with cells or
clusters developing and moving quickly southeast across the area.
Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, but storms
coinciding with peak heating may yield a few severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/07/2026
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