RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region
through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and
southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains
through Gulf Coast states.
There remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the
outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid
South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio
Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the
prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that
results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of
the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern
branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen
within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an
initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico,
becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern
stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United
States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface
ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far
south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated
forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing
thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas
late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling
frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by
late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively
minor at this time.
Read more
