RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
deep South Texas.
...Synopsis...
Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa
vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing
through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present
across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern
evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the
mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on
Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the
base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from
the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western
Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf
Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,
with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries
serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.
...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...
Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a
west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern
AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a
warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level
jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist
boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing
into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.
That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates.
The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong
near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the
instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is
forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the
morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during
the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast
through the level 2/Slight Risk area.
Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to
generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will
be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts
with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the
cold front from late morning into afternoon.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...
There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm
development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the
location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based
soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a
stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment
with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't
expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for
supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect
to remain confined to the morning hours.
..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave
upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys
through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX
coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will
lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return
across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the
OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.
...KS/OK/MO/AR...
Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s.
Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast
soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support
MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,
isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is
stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening
low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe
wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and
eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of
MO/AR.
...TX to the Lower MS Valley...
Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe
potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and
cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across
portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest
shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating
warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms
are not expected.
It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe
potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave
trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing
within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the
higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande
in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.
However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at
this time.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.
...KS/OK...
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.
The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day
4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move
from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger
northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time,
while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast
states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of
the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms
to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm
potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central
Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly
flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow
will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of
the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in
thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge
will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping.
Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward
extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the
Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
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