RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...20Z Update...
No changes.
..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region.
A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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