SPC Jun 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible this evening across much of South Dakota
into parts of northern Nebraska and south-central Minnesota.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible in
parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, west-southwesterly flow is evident over much of the
north-central U.S. A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the far western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1002 mb low
is analyzed in eastern Wyoming with a quasi-stationary front
extending northeastward into central South Dakota and north-central
Minnesota. An axis of low-level moisture is located from near the
Black Hills east-northeastward across South Dakota into
south-central Minnesota, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to
mid 60s F. Along and near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE mostly in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in the vicinity
of the Black Hills in southwestern South Dakota. The latest 00Z
sounding at Rapid City has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with large
hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible for a few more hours this evening. The wind-damage threat
will likely increase if a cell cluster can become organized and move
into central South Dakota later this evening...see MCD 983. The
southern edge of any cluster could impact parts of northern Nebraska
later this evening.

Further east into eastern South Dakota, a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing. The 00Z sounding at Aberdeen has
MUCAPE around 1800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and a
700-500 mb lapse rate just above 7 C/km. This should support
supercells with large hail early this evening. 0-3 km lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km will also be favorable for severe wind gusts. The
severe threat is expected to increase in southeast and central
Minnesota later this evening, as the storms in eastern South Dakota
move along the instability axis.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
eastern Kansas. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from
much of central and eastern Kansas northeastward into Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Moderate to
strong instability is analyzed by the RAP from central Kansas into
far western Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the
northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Kansas into
southwest Iowa. These storms are being supported by a low-level
speed max of 35 to 45 knots, and could be associated with a threat
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. As low-level
flow increases from this evening into the overnight period, the
redevelopment of storms may occur over parts of central and eastern
Kansas, where a continued marginal severe threat will be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/05/2026


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