RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ARKLATEX...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and numerical guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A generally zonal pattern will exist on Wednesday, with various
disturbances moving across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. One
disturbance will affect the upper MS Valley to Great Lakes during
the day, with another developing late into the northern High Plains.
Within the entire zone, midlevel westerlies will average 30-35 kt.
In the low levels, a front should stretch from near Lake Superior
into central NE, where it will stall. Widespread mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will remain ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon.
Early activity is likely moving out of MN and into WI, and may
overturn some of the air mass and push the effective boundary
around. New diurnal storms are then likely during the afternoon,
roughly from WI into southern MN and IA, with wind and hail
potential.
Farther west, scattered strong to severe storms are likely across
the High Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates will
favor development beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Moisture and
instability look sufficient, but not overlay strong, and will
support scattered strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
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