RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of
the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of
strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are
possible.
...01Z Update...
A prominent shortwave trough now nearing the Colorado/Kansas border
is promoting elevated convection ahead of it. An 8.2 C/km mid-level
lapse rate was sampled on the 00Z DDC sounding this evening. These
steep lapse rates should shift eastward along with the shortwave
trough. Additional, stronger convection remains possible in parts of
central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Earlier convection
has complicated the low-level thermodynamic environment, though
large hail and damaging winds are possible with organized cells and
linear structures. The tornado threat through the evening is
somewhat less clear, but a deepening surface low should advect
richer moisture northward. Depending on storm mode and low-level
stability, tornadoes remain possible in parts of northern Oklahoma
and south-central Kansas later this evening. In the short term, the
greatest threat for a strong tornado is in southeast Kansas. In
Oklahoma into North Texas, the dryline is surging westward. This
area will become increasingly removed from large-scale ascent. An
isolated storm or two remain possible at least trough mid-evening.
Lastly, convection in Missouri and southeast Kansas will eventually
grow upscale. A buoyancy gradient within the Mid-South region may
serve as a focus for continued southeast movement through the
evening. Marginal wind and hail are possible with this activity.
..Wendt.. 04/27/2026
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