RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex
region.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The
primary changes made to the current outlook were to trim severe
probabilities across portions of the OH Valley/Great Lakes, and the
Mid-MS Valley, where either the passage of a surface cold front, or
robust convection, has promoted boundary layer stabilization. More
minor changes involved small adjustments to current severe and
thunder probabilities ahead of storms to account for observations
and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.
The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.
Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the
southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...
A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the
south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of
eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.
Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.
Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this
afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.
...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.
...Western Nebraska...
A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts
of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily
Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue
to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the
western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough
initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward
toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern
Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment
across the south-central Plains by afternoon.
At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across
the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending
southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX.
An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend
east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary
is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across
parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.
...Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will
result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the
dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of
diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least
isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool
side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the
approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the
stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be
somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually
develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in
coverage into the evening.
Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will
generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near
the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater
tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an
organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and
potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability
gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing
damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to
pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.
Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain,
since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent.
However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated
supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very
large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk.
Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from
central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and
deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward
extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could
support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with
the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening.
...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the
afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia,
near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles
will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized
storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the
primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from
late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to
expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better
resolved.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant jet maximum are forecast
to emerge from the large-scale trough across the West, and begin to
impinge upon a moist and potentially very unstable airmass across
parts of the Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low is expected to
consolidate and deepen across the south-central High Plains during
the day, and then move toward the lower MO Valley by Monday morning.
A surface front (whose initial position will be influenced by
extensive Friday/Saturday convection) will move northward as a warm
front across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. A Pacific
Front/dryline will extend southward from the surface low through
late afternoon, with the northern portion of this boundary expected
to push eastward across parts of KS/OK Sunday night.
...Great Plains...
A volatile environment is still expected to develop across parts of
KS/OK/TX Sunday afternoon and evening, with moderate to strong
buoyancy and increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. However, the
signal for diurnal warm-sector development remains rather muted in
most guidance, with the strongest large-scale ascent and midlevel
height falls expected to be displaced north of the stronger
instability.
Storm coverage through early evening may be maximized across parts
of the central High Plains, in closer proximity to the ejecting
shortwave trough. While low-level moisture will remain relatively
modest in this area, backed low-level flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and moderate buoyancy could support initial supercell
development, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Storms
in this area may consolidate into an MCS, resulting in an organized
severe threat spreading toward the lower/mid MO Valley later Sunday
night.
Farther south, development along the dryline into parts of southern
KS, OK, and TX remains more uncertain. If isolated supercells can
develop and be sustained within this regime, they would be
accompanied by a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong), very large
hail, and localized severe gusts.
A separate area of nocturnal storm development will be possible
within a warm-advection regime from eastern KS into the Ozark
region. Buoyancy and shear may be sufficient to support some severe
threat with the strongest storms within this regime.
...Lower MS Valley...
Nocturnal storms from D2/Saturday may persist into Sunday morning
across the lower MS Valley, with additional diurnal development
possible along the remnant surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy could
support a localized severe threat across the region, within a modest
northwesterly flow regime.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
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