RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is
beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA
trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening,
00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify
as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High
Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will
overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to
respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK
ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will
begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to
overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further
moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight
hours.
Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted
from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is
expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer
shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ
should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z
and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms
evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This
activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it
spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind
profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the
primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was
given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but
instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will
continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern
Plains.
..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains
into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central
into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of a prominent
building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level
trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through
Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis.
Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue
building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern
California through much of the Four Corners states. Guidance
indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive
across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of
larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard.
However, there remains notable spread among the various model output
concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the
lower Mississippi Valley through this period.
Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to
support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but
this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern
Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast
to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...
It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation
will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central
U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for
appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf
boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F
surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma. At least
somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red
River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level
overcast. However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a
70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend
toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary
contributor to destabilization. Based on forecast soundings, most
unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated
near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates,
particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.
Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+
J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become
supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe hail, at least initially. Aided by favorable large-scale
forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger
convection to consolidate and organize across central toward
southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening. As this
occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of
the question. Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near
surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could
become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens.
..Kerr.. 02/13/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may continue into the day Sunday across parts of
the eastern Gulf Coast region.
...Discussion...
Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, a prominent
blocking ridge centered over the mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W)
may undergo further amplification toward the higher latitudes,
across and north-northwest of the Aleutians in mid/upper levels. As
this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs
near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level
trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is
forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast. It
appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the
base of this feature will support renewed cyclogenesis, but this is
generally forecast to occur and remain offshore of central and
southern California coastal areas through 12Z Monday, as an initial
occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest.
Downstream, guidance suggests that flow across the Rockies into the
western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments
within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.
In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden
eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi
Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing
into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Sunday night.
Spread within the latest model output appears to be decreasing
concerning this troughing. A mid-level cyclonic circulation,
associated with a weakening surface cyclone, may progress to the lee
of the southern Appalachians before weakening, as trailing short
wave troughing tends to dig across the northeastern Gulf and
adjacent eastern Gulf coast through Florida Peninsula.
...Eastern Gulf States...
The strongest portion of the weakening jet core, particularly at
mid-levels, may remain largely offshore across the north central
through northeastern Gulf through much of the day Sunday. At the
same time, southerly warm sector low-level wind fields are also
forecast to weaken, as the surface cyclone begins to weaken. It
appears that this may commence during the morning, though how fast
remains uncertain due to lingering model spread.
It is possible that a fairly organized convective system may be
ongoing at 12Z Sunday across eastern Mississippi through parts of
southeastern Louisiana, though NAM forecast soundings suggest that
this activity may be based above at least a shallow saturated
surface-based layer with moist adiabatic or more stable lapse rates.
This may remain the case as activity develops eastward, with
stronger convection becoming increasing focused closer to eastern
Gulf coastal areas, and perhaps being maintained into northern
portions of the Florida Peninsula by Sunday evening. However,
strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail may still be
possible with stronger storms, before convection weakens.
..Kerr.. 02/13/2026
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