RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Western and Central North Dakota
Eastern Montana
Western South Dakota
* HAZARDS...
Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds
A couple tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds
and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over
parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Gleason.. 06/07/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern
High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of
severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of
tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the
Ozarks region.
...20Z Update...
A Category 4/Moderate Risk was introduced to portions of the
northern High Plains. Confidence is increasing in a well-defined
cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS developing across portions of the
northern High Plains later this afternoon. A potentially dense swath
of 60-100 mph gusts appears likely, and a derecho may occur. Current
observations depict a near stationary surface boundary across far
southeastern MT northeastward into western ND along an elongated
surface trough. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance
(including HREF, REFS, and some of the latest WoFS runs) all depict
a classic bow echo MCS traversing this surface boundary, accompanied
by a widespread severe wind swath and scattered 75+ mph gusts. The
MCS would benefit from localized vorticity along this boundary,
which in turn could support book-end vortices and the subsequent
development and sustenance of a rear-inflow jet, lending
plausibility to the guidance consensus. Latest mesoanalysis also
shows continued eroding MLCINH and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Low-
to mid-level lapse rates are already exceeding 8 C/km in some spots,
coinciding with 50-60 kts of sfc-8 km bulk shear oriented normal to
the anticipated bow echo leading line, which is favorable for
derecho development. Alternatively, multiple severe-wind producing
multicellular clusters may occur, which would support higher
coverage of severe winds (with gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph).
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor
changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/
...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.
...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.
...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely
scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains,
with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.
...Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening,
with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and
eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the
international border.
A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and
across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and
cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into
southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front
is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in
dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode
for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation
forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some
capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with
40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to
produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of
North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian
border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles
near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor
stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will
maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.
Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN
will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures
with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.
Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with
hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend
southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a
conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker
in these areas.
..Jewell.. 06/07/2026
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