RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific
Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the
Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected
to remain low.
...Discussion...
The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into
the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity
continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the
Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms
across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer
shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across
central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe
potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias
does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern
Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this
scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in
upcoming outlook updates.
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across
portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday
afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep
severe storm potential low.
A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as
enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast
overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40
kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the
morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal
instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a
few strong gusts will remain possible.
..Thornton.. 05/25/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday through D5/Friday...
The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with
the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low
confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details
on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and
weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across
the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low
end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now
confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday
through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across
Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe
potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but
uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better
moisture/instability.
...D6/Saturday through D8/Monday...
Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble
guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to
build in across the central/western US with rising heights and
warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the
Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states.
Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain
low through much of the CONUS.
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