RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made with
this update. The primary addition was a CIG1 wind area over parts of
western/central SD. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will
evolve off the Black Hills and grow upscale as they intercept a
diurnally destabilized air mass and gradually strengthening
low-level jet -- promoting some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.
...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
forecast from the Northwest to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. At the
surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with
a more nebulous surface pattern elsewhere.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains through the
day Thursday as a ~50 knot jet streak emerges across the eastern
Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. As
this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen/moisten across southwest
South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. This upslope region will likely
be the zone for initial severe storm development Thursday afternoon.
Additional storms may also develop eastward along the front and
southward along the dryline. The most favorable zone for severe
supercells is across western South Dakota where moderate to strong
shear will overlap moderate to strong instability near the surface
low/triple point. All severe weather hazards (including very large
hail) will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with eventual
upscale growth into a MCS into the overnight hours.
Isolated to scattered storms are expected along the diffuse dryline
across the central/southern High Plains. However, mid-level flow is
expected to be weak across this region and lapse rates are not
expected to be that steep. Therefore, any severe weather potential
from this activity should remain quite isolated.
..Bentley.. 06/02/2026
Read more
