RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is
anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.
...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.
...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.
...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Moore.. 06/24/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the
central Rockies into the central/southern Plains D2/Thursday. Within
the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across
the central/southern Plains. Further east, a more potent shortwave
trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Wisconsin
south and west into the central Plains shifting south and eastward
into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. A surface low will
deepen across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through the evening.
...High Plains...
A shortwave trough moving out of Montana will bring forcing for
ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions
of the High Plains. Guidance suggests that ahead of this feature,
widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the
central/northern Rockies Thursday morning/early afternoon. This may
inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into
portions of eastern Montana/northern Colorado. Nonetheless, it
appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late
afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the
Rockies. This in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts
will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. Somewhat
better heating is expected across southeastern Colorado, where less
cloud cover is expected. Across this region, supercells will be
possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
A quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an
MCS/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning into
portions of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The exact location of
this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a
large impact on afternoon severe potential. Model trends in the 12z
guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions
of northern Oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted
further south. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered
along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from
southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Moderate instability and
deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with
storm motions likely to be along-boundary. There remains strong
signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase
into the evening across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. This in
combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support
potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The main
uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative
to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis.
The 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to
account for recent trends. It is possible that if more confidence in
the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be
needed. For now, confidence remains moderate in supercells
developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging
wind.
...Portions of the Ohio Valley into southern New York...
Development is expected along the cold front from southern New York
into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across
the region with increasing forcing for ascent. Moderate instability
and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized
storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for
damaging wind and large hail. The Marginal Risk was expanded along
the front into portions of Indiana/southern Ohio/northern Kentucky
to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the
cold front.
...Northern Utah...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of Utah Thursday afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
expected with very dry near-surface conditions. Modest instability
will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern Utah by
the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles
and potential for severe winds. A Marginal Risk was added to the
area to account for this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2026
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