RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the
U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move across the Rockies today, as a trough
translates eastward toward the West Coast. As large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough moves into northern
California late tonight, isolated thunderstorms will become possible
near the coast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorm
development is not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/12/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Very isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
CA, on Thursday into Thursday night. The southern portion of a broad
upper trough will remain offshore of the CA coast through the
period. The low-level warm conveyor will be most pronounced Thursday
morning before waning somewhat as it gradually shifts southward in
CA. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak to poor, but flimsy,
generally elevated buoyancy may sporadically develop within this
regime. Most CAM guidance suggests occasional bouts of more
pronounced low-topped convection should occur, supporting overall
thunder probabilities around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 11/12/2025
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