RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.
...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.
...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection.
Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.
...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.
...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.
...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable
thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Moore.. 06/19/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.
...20z Update MN/WI...
Severe potential remains evident this afternoon and evening across
the upper MS Valley. Despite modest buoyancy, anomalously strong
deep-layer flow and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
splitting supercell structures across parts of MN and WI. This will
support a risk for hail and damaging gusts with the strongest
storms. Have adjusted the 15% hail probabilities further north for
the latest radar trends. See MCD#1200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#355 for additional details.
...NC/VA...
The circulation associated with remnants of former TC Arthur have
moved offshore and severe potential has decreased. Severe
probabilities were removed.
...Southeast...
A broad area of thunderstorms is ongoing along a diffuse frontal
zone from east TX across the Gulf Coast States. Occasional
downbursts remain possible with stronger multicell clusters through
this evening, given large buoyancy and the high PWAT air mass.
Vertical shear is minimal and broader storm organization is not
expected. Have adjusted the 5% wind probabilities slightly to better
capture ongoing storms. No other changes were made to the outlook.
See the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 06/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026/
...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.
...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection.
Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.
...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.
...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.
...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable
thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are
possible.
...Central Plains...
With the approach of the modest shortwave trough, a lee cyclone will
deepen through the afternoon near the Colorado/Kansas border. Mid
60s F dewpoints are possible in parts of the central High Plains
with upper 60s F dewpoints more probable into central/eastern
Kansas. Convection is expected to develop within the higher terrain
of southeast Wyoming/southwest South Dakota and within the lee
trough/cyclone by mid/late afternoon. Earlier thunderstorm
development does appear possible within weak warm advection near the
northward lifting surface boundary in central/eastern Nebraska.
40-50 kt of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will
promote initial supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe
winds, and tornadoes. The degree of tornado risk is somewhat
uncertain as there could be a relatively quick transition to linear
modes. Discrete storms that can persist into the evening would
encounter greater low-level shear as the low-level jet strengthens.
A strong tornado would be possible especially near the surface
boundary where surface winds will remain backed. QLCS circulations
will remain possible within linear modes as well. As linear/bowing
segments develop during the evening, the risk for severe wind gusts
(some 75+ mph) will increase. The southern extent and eastern extent
of the most intense activity is a bit uncertain, but some risk will
remain even into the overnight on account of the very moist airmass
and limited MLCIN.
...Northern Utah into far southeast Idaho...
Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible along the
southern fringe of the upper-level trough. Strong heating and
limited moisture will promote large temperature-dewpoint spreads at
the surface. Convection will be capable of severe wind gusts.
..Wendt.. 06/19/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large
hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Models indicated that convection will likely be ongoing during the
morning in portions of Missouri and will move into central/southern
Illinois. The degree of airmass recover behind this activity is not
certain. There will certainly be a corridor of greater severe
potential along the trailing outflow from central Missouri into
southern Illinois, but confidence in such a scenario remains low at
this point. Furthermore, upper-level flow is not going to be overly
strong and any supercells that can develop may struggle to maintain
intensity. Even so, the potential for large hail, severe winds, and
tornadoes is evident.
...Central High Plains...
Lingering moisture behind the weak surface front and upslope flow
during the afternoon will promote thunderstorm development within
eastern Colorado. A belt of stronger westerly flow will bring
effective shear of around 45 kt. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
long hodographs suggest potential for large to very-large (up to 2
in.) hail will be possible along with isolated severe gusts.
Activity may not move very far east given increasing MLCIN farther
into western Kansas.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks...
Heating of a moist airmass south of the surface boundary will
promote strong buoyancy (perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). As the
shortwave trough continues east, the cold front will begin to move
southward by the evening. The low-level jet will strengthen and
provide additional lift along the boundary. A line of thunderstorms
is expected to move southward. Damaging winds are the main hazard
with this activity.
...Middle Ohio Valley Vicinity...
Convection that will move through Missouri/Illinois in the morning
may continue eastward. Given the modest surface low expected to
develop, some airmass destabilization is possible into Indiana/Ohio.
Strong low-level wind fields would support a risk for damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Wendt.. 06/19/2026
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