RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.
...Eastern North Dakota into Minnesota...
Some convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning
in eastern North Dakota. Given the time of day, it is not clear how
intense this activity will be, but some risk for damaging
winds/large hail may exist. With time, a plume of rich surface
moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will lift northward as the
upper ridge builds in the Midwest. The morning activity may be able
to intensify as is moves into northern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin.
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact evolution, the
Slight Risk has been shifted eastward to account for this potential.
...Northern Plains...
Convection is possible during the late evening as another shortwave
pivots into the High Plains and a surface low deepens in the lee of
the Rockies. The position of this shortwave is not certain. The
ECMWF shows the surface low developing in the central High Plains
while the NAM suggest this will occur farther north into
Nebraska/South Dakota. In either case, steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer winds, and adequate buoyancy will support a risk
of large hail and isolated severe gusts during late evening into
parts of the overnight.
...Midwest into Tennessee Valley Vicinity...
Models suggest potential for an MCV to move southeastward through
the day. The position of this feature varies substantially between
models, however, and it will depend on if/how much convection
develops late Saturday night. Marginal severe probabilities may be
needed if confidence on the location of the MCV increases.
..Wendt.. 06/26/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will
continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday.
This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest
height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To
the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture
advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the
southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected
to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential
for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most
favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that
could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15%
area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS
to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given
the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe
weather ultimately occurs.
From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into
Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large
reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in
place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are
possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger
scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will
weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result,
predictability is reduced.
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