RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...
...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing
southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.
...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.
Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.
...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.
..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/20/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHERN CAROLINAS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A few
stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are
possible.
...Discussion...
An initially low-amplitude zonal flow regime over the CONUS is
forecast to amplify considerably as a shortwave trough over the
lower MS Valley deepens while moving into the Southeast. A stalled
frontal boundary will be in place from southern North Carolina
southwestward toward the northern Gulf Coast. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before moving quickly
out to sea by Sunday morning. Sufficient moisture and ascent will
likely support widely scattered thunderstorms with some potential
for damaging gusts and a brief tornado over parts of the Southeast
and southern Carolinas Saturday and Saturday night.
...Northeastern Gulf Coast States and the southern Carolinas...
Early morning elevated storms should gradually become surface-based
as they track east/southeastward ahead of a subtle wave low along
the front. South of the front, modest diurnal heating amid mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will result in an environment with up to 500
to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Driven mostly by
low-level warm air advection, mid-level lapse rates will remain
generally poor (~6.5 C/km) which in combination with the lagged
primary upper forcing may tend to limit initial updraft intensity.
As the upper trough amplifies, the low will gradually deepen,
potentially serving as a local focus for more sustained convection
in southern GA and far southern SC. Long straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone could allow a few more organized
line/clusters Saturday afternoon/evening. Given the strong
deep-layer shear and some buoyancy from heating, damaging gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. Forecast guidance shows a few stronger
storms in this region through Saturday evening. Should coverage and
overall intensity increase, higher wind probabilities may be needed
in future outlooks.
Farther west, the surging front will likely undercut convection
across the western flank of the warm sector as the surface low
deepens. However, stronger heating and relatively larger buoyancy
suggests isolated strong gusts remain possible with any stronger
storms able to persist. Convection should gradually diminish as it
moves southeastward toward the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle into
early Sunday.
..Lyons.. 02/20/2026
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