RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.
...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.
...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC...
Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist
across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the
southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning.
This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving
off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just
off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary
layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s,
supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.
Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at
the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead
of this activity and the front, intensification of morning
convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and
linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow,
isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear
in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could
also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected
to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.
...TX...
A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday.
Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the
central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These
features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level
northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest
southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture
northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak
surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains
and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a
focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far
north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday
night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is
not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe
thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe
probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will
shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the
eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across
the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of
the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central
to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization
will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible.
Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but
predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue
across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The
cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on
Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of
the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will
depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central
U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the
forecast period.
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