RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...20z Update central Plains and mid MS Valley...
Isolated convection may develop across portions of central KS late
this afternoon/evening northeast of the effective triple point.
Low-level moisture continues to rapidly advect northward across
central KS but deep mixing will likely limit the extent of the more
robust 60s F dewpoints. With moderate forecast MLCAPE (1500-2000
J/kg) amid veering wind profiles, isolated, high-based supercells
remain possible, mainly with a large hail and damaging wind risk.
Additional storms are also possible later tonight at the terminus of
a forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet across far eastern KS into MO. It
remains unclear if these storms will be robustly organized, but some
risk for hail and damaging winds may exist. Wind and hail
probabilities were expanded slightly eastward to capture this
threat.
...Southern and central High Plains...
High-based showers and a few thunderstorms have begun developing and
should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon. Weak buoyancy
(500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop a very deep mixed layer is evident on 12
and 18z area RAOBs supporting the risk for damaging/severe gusts. A
few stronger high-based storms could also produce marginally severe
hail across parts of western KS where buoyancy is somewhat better.
See MCD#718 for additional short term information.
..Lyons.. 05/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
...Synopsis...
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the
central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level
disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward
across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS
River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest
deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with
continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the
east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the
Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the
overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River
Valley/Midwest.
...Lower Missouri River Valley...
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across
central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions
on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped
thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central
Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection,
including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level
storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote
outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick
upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the
potential for large/very large hail.
Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and
ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly
placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective
initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends,
15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward.
Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into
portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and
elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the
overnight hours.
...Southern Plains...
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9
C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through
the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the
dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates
should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late
afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based
convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support
strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint
that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop
as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable
spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward
expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for
this potential.
To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML
will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM
solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for
isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot
mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any
deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential
for a supercell or two capable of large hail.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the
western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly
mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central
Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough
through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and
central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the
Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a
diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an
embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains
late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote
thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone
across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline
across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as
along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley
regions.
...Central Plains...
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the
central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective
initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the
surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely
exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast
guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could
pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale
growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms
propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly
good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective
environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central
NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best
convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were
adjusted northward to reflect this trend.
...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective
development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest
TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow
through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and
considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation.
While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range
CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection.
Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will
likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30
knots of effective bulk shear.
...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east
towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of
low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some
degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently,
isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across
central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the
order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and
effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal
zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for
severe hail and wind.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
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