RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.
These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving
thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.
The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.
Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central
Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.
..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms capable of hail,
are possible Friday night and early Saturday over parts of the
Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Low amplitude but progressive mid-level flow will continue across
the southern CONUS Day2/Friday. A shortwave trough and 100+ kt
mid-level jet over the southern Great lakes will move quickly
eastward and deamplify as subtropical ridging build to the south. A
second shortwave, initially over the Desert Southwest will move
quickly northeastward reaching the lower MS Valley by early
Saturday. A deep surface low over the Great Lakes will gradually
fill as its associated cold front surges eastward toward the
Atlantic coast. Trailing portions of the front will slow and
eventual stall, east to west over portions of the lower MS valley
and northern Gulf Coast States.
Thunderstorms are expected to persist from Day1/Thursday east of the
surface low early Friday across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid
Atlantic vicinity. However, scant low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy will preclude severe potential. Scattered storms are
expected overnight across portions of the northern Gulf Coast
States.
...Northern Gulf Coast States....
Mid-level flow is expected to remain quite strong over much of the
Southeast Friday as weak subtropical ridging builds in behind the
departing eastern shortwave. With weak to neutral mid-level heights,
large-scale ascent will be muted for much of the day. Continued
southerly flow off the Gulf will support moistening south of the
stalled front with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s F.
Low/mid-level warm advection is expected to increase later Friday
evening into early Saturday. While the primary ascent from the
Southwest US shortwave should remain along the cool side, slight
enhancement of the low-level jet is expected to be sufficient for
elevated destabilization over parts of northern LA, MS, AL into
northern GA and far southern TN. While not overly large, MUCAPE ~
500 J/kg amid strong deep-layer shear (50+ kt) may allow for a few
instances of hail with the stronger elevated storms overnight and
early Saturday.
...Upper OH Valley...
East of the occluding surface low, modest low-level moistening is
expected early Friday morning. A narrow plume of relatively higher
dewpoints (40s and 50s F) ahead of the surging front could support
shallow convection across eastern OH, southwest NY and western PA.
Current forecast guidance shows little if any buoyancy. However,
given the strong ascent, shallow convective elements are possible
along the front. With 100+ kt of mid-level flow, sporadic damaging
wind gusts cannot be ruled out should any stronger convective
showers develop. Cooler and more stable air farther east into the
Mid Atlantic should limit any further wind gust potential later
Friday.
..Lyons.. 02/19/2026
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