RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms capable of producing small to
marginally severe hail are possible overnight across parts of
central and eastern Iowa.
...01Z Update...
The categorical thunderstorm area across the Midwest has been
shifted southward a bit to account for the current position of the
low-level baroclinic zone, and its motion downstream of a surface
cyclone overnight. The center of the cyclone is forecast to migrate
from eastern Colorado into central Kansas through late this evening,
before reforming northeastward toward the St. Joseph MO vicinity by
early Sunday. Latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
moisture return to the immediate cool side of the developing warm
frontal zone may contribute to 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE,
near the nose of an intensifying south-southwesterly low-level jet
(including 50-70 kt around 850 mb) across the southern Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley by 15/09-12Z.
Strongest thunderstorm development seems likely to focus along a
tightening mid-level thermal gradient (centered around 700 mb) to
the north of the Missouri/Iowa state border vicinity, as warming
(and capping) elevated mixed-layer air advects northeast of the
central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley. Given the
generally cool overall profiles, storms may, at least initially,
become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, before
this risk perhaps diminishes as convection becomes more widespread.
..Kerr.. 03/15/2026
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