RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the central Plains into the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms are possible, but
severe-thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
central Plains toward the mid MS Valley through the period. Upstream
of this shortwave, a stronger and more amplified upper trough will
dig southeastward across California. A surface low associated with
the lead shortwave is forecast to move across the central Plains. In
response to this surface low, seasonably rich low-level moisture
will advect northward from TX/LA into parts of OK/AR/MO.
...Southern/central Plains into parts of the mid MS and OH
Valleys...
Moderate destabilization is expected Monday afternoon from parts of
TX into eastern OK. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized
convection, but there is currently little signal for diurnal storm
development across the warm sector, likely due to lingering capping
and generally weak large-scale ascent (with stronger ascent
displaced to the north).
Farther north, elevated convection is expected to develop within a
low-level warm-advection regime from parts of the Ozarks into the
mid MS and OH Valleys, mainly during the evening and overnight
hours. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE,
though relatively strong deep-layer flow could support some modest
storm organization. Small to near-severe hail could accompany the
strongest storms. If confidence increases in sufficient
destabilization and robust elevated convection within this regime,
then severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Dean.. 11/16/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move
slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A
surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to
move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts
of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a
warm front late in the period.
...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across
parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread
eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians.
Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will
continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong
storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out
before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and
convection moves into a more stable environment.
Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer
moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west
TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm
front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be
conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most
guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will
remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of
the period.
Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front
during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may
struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat
greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm
development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX
into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level
jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding
storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other
guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.
..Dean.. 11/16/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday...
An increase in severe potential remains evident across the
south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but
uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude
of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding
the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough
that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains
from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat
nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop
late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while
isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized
storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak
until late Wednesday night.
As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture
and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become
increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead
of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the
southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for
storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a
surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central
Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into
parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday,
though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward
extent.
Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level
mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread
storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and
the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties
appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest
probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the
likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous
low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks.
...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday...
Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by
late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into
parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy
will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z
ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains
next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite
large within other extended-range guidance.
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