RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern
Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong
wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow
remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an
outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and
lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will
move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is
expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of
tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in
the line.
Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into
far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate
during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level
convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move
southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the
late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near
3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with
supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line
segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front,
a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley
northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to
weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level
convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the
front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead
of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.
In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.
...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and
boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.
At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.
Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
Arkansas.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
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