RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Discussion...
A generally zonal pattern across the CONUS will become more
amplified on Saturday with a trough developing across the Plains by
the end of the period. A lack of moisture will limit severe weather
concerns Saturday and Saturday night.
Where greater moisture is present across Florida, isolated storms
are expected on Saturday amid moderate instability and weak height
falls. Shear will be on the weaker side (~25 knots) and mid-level
lapse rates will remain weak. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm
is possible, but more organized severe storms are not expected.
Isolated thunderstorms may be possible north of the warm front from
northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin early
Sunday morning given the strong isentropic ascent, but forecast
soundings show relatively meager moisture/instability at this time,
which may preclude more widespread thunderstorm development.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2026
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