RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and
central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South...
A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent
MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance
suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some
flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the
wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is
expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately
unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into
forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds
through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection
intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic,
locally backed flow may support development of at least transient
supercells, with some tornado potential.
Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS
over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South
region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very
warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is
expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV
along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the
strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV,
but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon
into early evening.
...Central/northern High Plains...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a
relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential
for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot
be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not
depict organized MCS development at this time.
...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region...
The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe
threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period,
though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning.
Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow
into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late
tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this
redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to
limit a more organized severe threat.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the
northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.
...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains...
As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across
western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.
...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail
threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.
...Southeast...
A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast
to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on
Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.
...Synopsis...
Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level
flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The
surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in
the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains.
...Central High Plains to the Ozarks...
An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe
risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and
into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the
low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow.
High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope
flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast
from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate
to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat
mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is
most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not
that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is
unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to
be expanded eastward in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/22/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains...
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains
on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High
Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and
shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development
across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from
northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South
Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the
unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe
weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the
Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern
Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this
time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of
each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of
the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into
the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond
Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
Read more
