RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.
...IL/IN/MI/OH...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of
hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow
aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable
of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78
and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to
persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with
a continued severe risk.
...Southern NY/Northern PA into New England...
Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across
northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and
stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with
strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM
solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will
intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also
possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening
with a continued marginal severe threat.
...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level
lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and
western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge
southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm
development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These
storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging
winds and hail with these storms.
..Hart/Jewell.. 03/31/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains and Central Plains...
A midlevel trough and accompanying 50-60-kt speed max will advance
eastward from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains by
Wednesday evening. As related height falls overspread the High
Plains, a lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern CO, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains.
Ample diurnal heating and parcel residence time along the dryline
will promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20-00Z time
frame -- aided by the strengthening large-scale ascent. Steep
midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML and lower 60s dewpoints
will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector. This, combined
with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters/line segments initially.
The risk of large to very large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) should
be greatest with these initial semi-discrete storms over the
southern/central High Plains. With time, the strengthening DCVA and
expanding cold pools will promote upscale growth into a
north/south-oriented band of storms with embedded supercell
structures -- given elongated hodographs and a substantial
line-orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear. Large hail will
remain possible, though scattered severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will become the main concerns. Additionally, a 40-50+ kt
low-level jet will strengthen ahead of the upscale-growing
convection into the evening, resulting in expanding clockwise-curved
hodographs and additional concerns for a few tornadoes. Higher
tornado probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence in
where the risk will be maximized spatially. Storms will track
eastward across the I-35 corridor into the overnight hours and
continue to pose a damaging-wind risk and perhaps embedded
tornadoes. However, confidence in the overall severe-risk decreases
with eastward extent.
Farther north, additional thunderstorm development is expected near
a warm front extending across northeastern KS and vicinity during
the evening/overnight hours. While buoyancy will be weaker here,
40-50 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level shear in the
warm-advection regime will support organized clusters and
potentially a couple supercells. The primary concern with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid
upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
upgrade at this time.
..Weinman.. 03/31/2026
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