RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
... Overview ...
A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.
... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...
A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.
In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.
By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours.
... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and
western Kentucky ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along
and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection
is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic
fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential --
including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early
evening.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave approaching
the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to translate
east/southeastward over the next 48 hours, eventually ejecting into
the central Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As
this occurs, robust cyclogenesis is expected along a residual
baroclinic zone across the southern to central Plains. Low to mid
60s dewpoints will spread north from the southern Plains/Ozark
Plateau into the Midwest as the baroclinic zone lifts northward as a
warm front. By late afternoon a cold front will begin pushing
southeast across NE, KS, and OK, which will support scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development by early evening. Elsewhere,
more isolated thunderstorms are expected along the warm frontal zone
draped from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley.
....Iowa and northern Missouri...
Regionally, the best convective environment will most likely emerge
immediately south of the warm front and ahead of the developing
surface low. Here, seasonally rich low-level moisture coupled with
several hours of synoptic-scale ascent/cooling aloft will support
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear magnitudes
should be maximized within the warm sector given closer proximity to
the upper jet. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a
favorable tornado environment along the northern fringe of the warm
sector, characterized by effective SRH values on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 and STP values likely increasing into the 2-4 range by
early evening.
This environment will likely support a threat for significant
tornadoes given discrete storm modes; however, guidance continues to
suggest that initially discrete cells developing along the cold
front will likely grow upscale within a few hours. CAM solutions
continue to vary regarding the possibility of pre-frontal supercell
development along the warm front and/or within the warm sector.
Limited confidence in a prolonged supercell tornado threat precludes
higher tornado probabilities at this time, though the strongly
sheared low-level wind profile will likely support an embedded
tornado threat within the line to the south of the warm front. If
pre-frontal supercells can develop along/near the surface warm front
(as hinted by recent ARW and RRFS solutions) they will likely pose a
threat for strong tornadoes. As the convective line matures and
spreads east, severe gusts should become more prevalent, including
the potential for a significant wind gust or two given the focused
low-level mass response in close proximity to the surface low.
...Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by
late afternoon along the trailing cold front from eastern KS into
northern OK. Wind vectors through much of the profile will promote
storm motion and orientation along the initiating cold front, which
will result in quick upscale growth into a convective line.
Propagation southeastward into the warm sector may be modulated by
the mean southwesterly flow regime, though the line should
eventually move east/southeast through late evening and overnight as
the cold front advances southeast. While severe hail may be an
initial threat as convection develops, strong to severe wind gusts
should quickly become the predominant hazard with some threat for
embedded circulations.
Further southwest into southwest OK/northwest TX, weaker forcing for
ascent will likely yield more sparse storm coverage but a higher
probability for discrete cells. Forecast hodographs depict marginal
low-level wind shear, but favorably elongated wind profiles aloft
that will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. There is also a signal in some guidance
for somewhat more scattered, potentially elevated, convection
developing by early afternoon across northwest to north-central TX
within a weak warm advection regime. While confidence in how
widespread or intense this activity will be is limited due to model
variance, the environment should support organized cells capable of
large hail.
...Ohio Valley...
Ascent along the residual boundary should promote isolated
thunderstorm by late afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition.
While deep-layer flow will be more modest compared to locations
further west, 30-35 knot mid-level winds will help support a few
organized cells capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.
...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.
...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into
the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong
synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and
lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and
northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may
materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon,
it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage
with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt
appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building
surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through
early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the
Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the
West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West.
This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains
with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+
dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time
frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be
limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
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