RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and
severe winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential
may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
risk (driven by CIG1 wind) across parts of western OK, the eastern
TX Panhandle, and far south-central KS. Thunderstorms are evolving
across the OK Panhandle and vicinity, ahead of a surface low/triple
point. Current expectation is for this activity and additional
storms to track east-southeastward through a hot/well-mixed air mass
-- favorable for strengthening/expanding cold pools with time.
Around 40 kt of effective shear should promote a mix of organized
clusters and supercells tracking east-southeastward into
increasingly rich boundary-layer moisture and a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. This evolution should favor a swath of
severe/damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph or greater).
A focused corridor of relatively greater tornado potential is
possible across parts of southwest KS into northwest OK -- along a
recovering outflow boundary. There was some consideration for higher
tornado probabilities here, though confidence in the exact corridor
was too low for the upgrade at this time.
Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the severe
probabilities based on the latest convective and environmental
trends.
..Weinman.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks...
Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas
into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to
settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been
organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal
intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses
southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled
air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.
The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper
convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest
flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow
modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east
proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal
low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also
expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range
southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.
This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused
in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from
southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial
supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts
and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably
tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge
with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase
near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet
strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the
potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can
remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH
near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell
mode can be maintained.
Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across
northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into
western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a
severe wind threat before eventually weakening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this
evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great
Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the
lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in
the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York
where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should
exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to
exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from
mid-afternoon through early evening.
...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into
Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related
categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms
as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed
boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of
Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should
support more robust convection.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains,
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and
isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough across the northern Pacific will deepen and begin
to shift inland across the western US on Friday. Height rises will
begin as ridging builds in across the central/northern Plains.
Between these features, strong southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the northern Rockies, with resulting lee cyclogenesis
occurring across Montana/northern Wyoming. Further east, a shortwave
trough will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley,
with a surface low possibly deepening and moving northeast from
Texas into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Across the
northeastern US, a belt of strengthening mid-level flow will shift
through the broader mid-level trough as a surface low shifts into
Quebec. A broad cold front will extend from the northeastern surface
low back into the Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains.
...High Plains...
Increasing mid-level ascent and surface low development will support
scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain from
eastern Montana south into Wyoming and Colorado. Height rises across
the central/northern Plains may inhibit coverage a bit with eastward
extent. Weak to moderate instability is progged by the afternoon
along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear will
be strongest across eastern Montana, weakening into
Wyoming/Colorado. Given modest shear, potential for a mixed mode of
supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of damaging winds and
large hail.
...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley...
A broad area of showers/thunderstorm activity is likely to be
ongoing near the start of the period from the Mid Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes region. The focus for afternoon redevelopment
across portions of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois/Indiana
will likely be where the residual outflow/differential heating
boundary intersects the surface cold front by the afternoon.
Guidance suggests that though cloud cover may linger, air mass
recovery through filtered heating will lead to moderate instability
by the afternoon. Recent trends in 06z ECMWF guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement with the NAM, which was an outlier in the
00z guidance, suggesting that a surface low may deepen across
southern Illinois/Indiana by the afternoon. This would result in
much stronger low-level jet response across the region and potential
for an increase in tornado potential. Some limiting factors may be
the relatively weak mid-level flow and storm mode. Nonetheless,
tornado probabilities were increased to 5% to account for some
potential for a tornado or two. The main threats will likely be
damaging wind and hail with supercells and multi-cell clusters
developing near and ahead of the front by the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the front south
and westward into portions of the Southern Plains. Forcing for
ascent will be weaker to the west, but sufficient deep layer shear
for a few organized storms will be in place near the frontal zone
amid moderate to strong instability. These storms will pose
potential for damaging wind and hail also.
...Northeast...
A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will overspread the
Northeast in the wake of morning convection. While it remains
uncertain how much destabilization can occur behind the morning
activity, it does appear that additional thunderstorms are likely
to develop by the afternoon. Given strong deep layer shear profiles
amid strengthening upper-level flow, these storms will pose some
potential for damaging wind and few instances of large hail.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough across the western US will ejected across the
northern Rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the High
Plains on D3/Saturday. In response, a surface low across eastern
Montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the High
Plains. A secondary surface low will move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the period.
...Northern Plains...
As southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone
across eastern Montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into
portions of the northern High Plains. Guidance suggests that a
narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place
ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern Montana into the
western/central Dakotas. Additionally, a plume of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in
eastern Montana/northern Wyoming. It is likely that as this moves
into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one
or more clusters/MCS moving north and east into the Dakotas through
the afternoon/evening. These may be further supported by the
increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to
produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). Higher
probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher
confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along
a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the southern Ohio
Valley. Flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear.
Guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop
across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Despite
weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters
capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts.
A more favorable corridor for wind will exist from North Carolina
into Virginia. Here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a
modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. This may
support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to
shift eastward to the coastline. Forecast soundings indicate steep
low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further
supporting potential for downward momentum transport. A Slight Risk
was added across this area to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
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