RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
...Oklahoma and North Texas...
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.
...Central High Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.
...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
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