RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Coastal central into southern CA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over
the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA
through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense
cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose
east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this
afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.
In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will
migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and
subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.
An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow
convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front.
Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead
of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts.
Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few
stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the
broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before
this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it
dissipates by early evening.
...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the
immediate coast.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving
eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.
Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.
...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the
Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as
across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday
night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
...California...
In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across
the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig
southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful
mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast.
Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will
support low-topped convection along much of the California coast,
and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest
low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and
valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal
region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be
possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this
time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is
expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will
continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability
wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.
...Missouri Valley/Midwest...
The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern
Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward
and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the
central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to
this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across
the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A
trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains.
Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above
the surface could support elevated convection from very late
afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper
Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with
the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but
nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal
heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will
be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if
deep convection can be sustained.
..Dean.. 02/16/2026
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