RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels today, a trough will dig south-southeastward into the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of
the southern U.S. In response, moisture advection will take place
across the western Gulf Coast states. By mid to late evening,
surface dewpoints are expected to reach the middle to upper 60s F
along parts of the Texas Coast. This will result in an increase in
instability supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development. As warm advection continues into the overnight period,
a gradual increase in convective coverage should occur, mainly
offshore where instability and low-level flow are forecast to be
stronger. Due to this, some cell organization could occur just
offshore from the upper Texas Coast after midnight with a few
rotating storms possible. Over land, instability is forecast to
remain relatively weak, which is expected to limit the severe
potential through daybreak on Thursday.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/03/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday)
across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central
and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high
pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low
development should take place along the TX coastline during the day,
with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early
Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low
will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland,
where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain
just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the
severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears
very low.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern
CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the
eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains
on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be
present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit
thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast
will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level
moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the
Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period.
Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the
chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support
thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.
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