RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.
Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/01/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening
into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming
was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern
Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to
account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance
consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.
Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.
on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the
period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold
front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.
...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of
this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in
a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm
layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest
cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is
expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon
of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold
front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the
convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters
could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would
likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still
a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm
mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet
will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east
through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be
out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the
overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow
zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and
boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning.
Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics
is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.
..Wendt.. 05/01/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS
will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave
troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to
shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the
northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
move southeastward into the Midwest.
...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys...
Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F
dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited
moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at
500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms
can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this
outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
guidance trends.
..Wendt.. 05/01/2026
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