RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.
...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/02/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level ridge across the western Great Lakes will
deamplify through the day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a mid-level
shortwave trough will progress across the Canadian Prairies with an
additional mid-level trough across the Northwest. An expansive area
of surface high pressure will lead to stable conditions across much
of the eastern CONUS. A weak surface trough will extend from the
primary low pressure center in southern Canada and into the
northern/central Plains.
...Northern Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing on Wednesday morning
across portions of western and central South Dakota amid weak
isentropic ascent. An isolated hail threat may exist with these
morning storms. By mid-afternoon, storms are expected to develop as
height falls overspread a southeastward moving cold front. 40+ knots
of effective shear will support supercell mode with a threat for
large hail (some very large). As the front continues southeastward,
expect upscale growth into a linear segment with an increasing
severe wind threat. A tornado threat may also exist during the
supercellular phase, particularly if a stronger 30+ knot low-level
jet develops as forecast by some guidance. This tornado threat could
also be aided by any potential outflow boundaries remaining from
morning convection.
Farther south, isolated to scattered storms are possible along a
diffuse dryline. Mid-level flow is very weak farther south which
will limit storm organization. However, moderate instability and an
uncapped airmass will support some marginal hail/wind threat.
...West Texas into southern New Mexico...
A cluster of storms associated with a weak mid-level shortwave
trough will likely be ongoing across portions of West Texas on
Wednesday morning. Moderate destabilization south and southwest of
this activity is expected during the day. This zone will likely be a
focus for strong to isolated severe storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Modest deep-layer flow may result in a messy
storm mode, but moderate instability and steep lapse rates will
support the potential for some large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/02/2026
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