RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern is expected today as a pair of shortwave
troughs progress across the central and eastern CONUS. The eastern
shortwave, which is currently over the Upper OH Valley, will
continue quickly eastward/northeastward, moving off the Northeast
coast by this afternoon. The western shortwave will dig
southeastward across the northern/central Plains, reaching the Lower
OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. Evolution of these shortwaves
will maintain a cyclonic belt of enhanced westerlies from the
central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic States throughout the
period.
At the surface, a weak frontal zone extends from central NY
southward to just off NJ and DE before arcing back southwestward
across central NC/far western SC and continuing west-southwestward
across the Southeast. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary will
remain progressive while the western portion stays largely in place
through the afternoon. During the evening, this boundary will likely
begin shifting northward as a warm front ahead of the next shortwave
and its associated surface low. Thunderstorm coverage will increase
during this time across eastern GA and the Carolinas.
...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, northward progression of a warm front
will bring increasing low-level moisture into GA and the Carolinas
this evening. A weak surface low will likely move across the region
as well. Much of the large-scale forcing for ascent will be
displaced north and west of the region, but a combination of
localized lift near the surface low and persistent warm-air
advection is still expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
coverage from the late afternoon through the evening. Buoyancy will
be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates, but vertical shear will be
strong, and the overall environment could support some more
organized updrafts. A more cellular mode is favored and hail appears
to be the primary severe risk, although a damaging gust or two is
also possible. Additionally, given favorable low-level wind
profiles, a low-probability tornado threat also exists, particularly
near the surface low. However, increasing low-level stability and
meager buoyancy should keep the tornado risk low.
...OH Valley...
Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will
support an arcing band of thunderstorms over the region, beginning
across central/southern IL and far western KY early Sunday morning.
The stronger mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the
deeper convection and some low-level stability will be in place, but
a few stronger gusts could still reach the surface. Some small hail
is possible across the region as well.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/08/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.
...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.
...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.
..Smith/Leitman.. 11/08/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
FL/SOUTH GA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon
into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central
Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the
expected hazards.
...Synopsis...
Further amplification of an already deep upper-level trough is
expected over the eastern CONUS on Sunday. An embedded shortwave
trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes region during the day,
while a reinforcing shortwave trough will dig southward near the
Upper Great Lakes. The primary surface low will accompany the
leading shortwave and move from the eastern Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast.
...Central FL into Southeast VA...
Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE of generally 500-1000 J/kg) is
expected along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon from parts of GA
and the FL Peninsula into the southern Mid Atlantic. Deep-layer
shear will be favorable for organized convection, but guidance
continues to be relatively sparse with storm coverage across the
warm sector, likely due to the stronger large-scale ascent being
displaced to the west/north of the region. Any storms that can be
sustained within the prefrontal environment could pose a threat for
isolated hail and damaging wind. The strongest relative signal for
organized storm development is from south GA into north FL during
the afternoon and early evening, but confidence is too low to
introduce greater probabilities at this time.
...OH/PA/WV vicinity...
Relatively low-topped convection will likely be ongoing Sunday
morning across eastern OH, associated with the ejecting shortwave
trough. Guidance generally suggests some weakening with this
activity prior to the start of the period (12Z), but locally gusty
winds cannot be ruled out through the morning as this convection
moves into parts of WV and western PA.
Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization,
low-topped convection may persist into parts of western/central NY,
and potentially develop southward across western/central PA during
the afternoon. Guidance generally depicts MUCAPE in the 100-200 J/kg
range in the presence of moderate low-level flow (generally 25-35 kt
at 850 mb), which would likely be insufficient to support an
organized severe threat. However, if heating/destabilization is
stronger than currently anticipated, then convection with locally
gusty/damaging winds and transient low-level rotation could not be
ruled out.
..Dean.. 11/08/2025
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