RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma. More isolated severe
thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains,
southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.
...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.
...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/29/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are still expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas into northern Oklahoma. More
isolated severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the
central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The
biggest change made to the outlook was to extend 15 percent wind and
hail probabilities (hence the Slight risk) farther east into OK.
Though speed and directional shear are not expected to be overly
abundant, some hodograph curvature and elongation, amid 2500-3000
J/kg MLCAPE will support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing severe wind and hail (with a few stones potentially
exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Otherwise, more minor adjustments
were made to thunder and severe probabilities to account for
observations and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/
...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.
...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.
...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate from the Rockies into the
central Plains on Saturday as a lee surface cyclone develops across
western Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas
into the Texas Panhandle.
...Western Nebraska into southwest South Dakota...
A dryline will bend northwestward from central Kansas into the
Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday afternoon. As the mid-level trough
overspreads the region, inhibition will erode and storms are
expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Most guidance shows some
mixing of the shallow moisture across the region during the
afternoon. This casts some uncertainty on storm coverage across far
southern Nebraska and into northern Kansas. However, farther
northwest, where mid-level forcing will be stronger, storms are
anticipated across the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity. It is worth noting, that some guidance
which is a bit more progressive with northwestward moisture
transport would be more supportive for a tornado threat across the
region. However, this appears to be a more outlier solution rather
than a likely solution. Therefore, the 2% tornado probabilities seem
appropriate.
...Kansas to West Texas...
Isolated storm development is possible along the dryline from West
Texas to central Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level forcing will
be focused farther north and convergence will be weak along the
dryline from the Kansas/Oklahoma border southward. In addition,
shallow moisture is forecast to mix out ahead of the dryline.
However, despite these mitigating factors, strong surface heating is
expected which would result in a mostly uncapped airmass along the
length of the dryline. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected
to remain across the region which could result in a supercell or
two.
A more concentrated zone of storms may exist from southern Kansas
into central Kansas, closer to the upper-level forcing, where
convergence along the dryline is also greater. However, within this
zone, shear may be marginal (20 to 25 knots) within a relatively
weak area of mid-level flow. Therefore, higher probabilities have
not been added.
...Western Missouri...
Within a zone of weak isentropic ascent Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, strong to isolated severe storms may develop from
far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. A few storms may be
capable of large hail.
..Bentley.. 05/29/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible
on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the
central and northern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will build across the central portion of the CONUS
with a deepening trough moving from Quebec into the Northeast on
Sunday. A broad, weak surface trough will extend from the central
Plains to the northern Plains. A moist environment will exist ahead
of this trough with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
...Northern Plains into the Central Plains and Ozarks...
A frontal zone is forecast to extend from the northern Plains to the
Midwest Sunday morning. South of this boundary, moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop amid upper 60s to low 70s
dewpoints. Despite the strong instability along this frontal zone,
convective development (particularly strong storm development)
remains uncertain given strong height rises expected across the
region beneath the building ridge. However, if storms are able to
develop, 25 to 30 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
storm organization and perhaps some rotating updrafts. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
...West Texas to western Oklahoma...
Storms are expected to develop across West Texas Sunday afternoon
amid moderate instability. However, very weak mid-level flow will be
present across the region which will likely lead to storm mergers
and relatively quick upscale growth into a likely non-severe MCS.
Given the steep lapse rates across the area, some isolated severe
wind gusts may occur, particularly early in storm lifecycles. This
potential does not appear large enough for 5 percent probabilities
at this time.
..Bentley.. 05/29/2026
Read more
