RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.
...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.
Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.
..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas,
mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and
perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at
least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes.
...Discussion...
General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in
prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a
blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude
Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave
perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while
digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest
coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially
significant downstream trough inland across California and much of
the Great Basin by late Monday night.
As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop
farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming
centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern
Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate
that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting
northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great
Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric
cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin,
in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly
deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and
southern Atlantic Seaboard.
It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing
will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed
maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California
through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may
be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by
the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco
Bay vicinity during the day Monday.
...Southern California coast...
Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening,
along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may
gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support
deepening convective development while spreading inland across
coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los
Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning.
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,
thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm
development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind
profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb
level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse
Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of
near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may
become conducive to the development of supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Central Valley...
There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but
at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and
perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may
contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization
and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the
environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak
tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 02/15/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially
offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating
inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly
mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward
toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the
southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing
across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at
least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast
to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the
middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad
belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues
developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid
Atlantic Seaboard.
In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially
deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into
the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle
and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it
appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger
southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains
into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component.
Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf
Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a
warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the
central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.
...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small
hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic
profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe
limits.
...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that
the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential
lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak
elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor
spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.
..Kerr.. 02/15/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale
troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset
of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of
the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend.
It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a
series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However,
given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to
the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface
cyclogenesis, possible strong.
To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability
with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater
certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by
Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes
region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf
boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support
limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the
middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By
Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture
surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing
convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains
unclear at this time.
Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may
commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great
Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to
emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that
renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that
convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side
of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather
potential.
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