RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.
Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.
...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.
Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.
...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
required based on recent convective trends. As of 19:30 UTC, MRMS
imagery depicts an intensifying squall line with a history of severe
gusts moving eastward across northeast OH. This section of the
squall line remains well-phased with ascent and stronger mid-level
flow associated with the shortwave trough aloft. Downstream of the
squall line, a recent 18 UTC RAOB from PIT sampled a strongly
sheared and uncapped environment that should maintain squall line
intensity through early evening and lends confidence in the ongoing
wind forecast.
Further south across the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures continue to warm
into the mid 90s with the early stages of organized convection noted
along the Appalachians and within a surface trough in north-central
NC. Regional 18 UTC soundings sampled a sufficiently buoyant and
strongly sheared environment that will likely promote further
organization and intensification through the evening hours as
convection spreads east/northeast. See MCD #1141 for regional
details and the previous discussion below for additional forecast
information.
..Moore.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.
Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.
...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.
Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US on
Monday. Embedded within the larger-scale trough will be several
short-wave troughs quickly moving through. The first of these will
be located across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the start of the
forecast period before quickly moving east off the East Coast by the
end of the period. A second short-wave trough will dig southeast out
of Canada across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary will hangup across the
northern Gulf states, with a warm, moist airmass to the south and a
continental cooler, drier airmass to the north. A secondary cold
front will push quickly south and east across much of the Plains,
stretching from southeast Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday
morning.
... Southern Rockies/High Plains into Southwest Kansas ...
Easterly winds early Monday will turn southeasterly to southerly by
late afternoon in response to surface troughing associated with the
approaching mid-level short-wave trough. This will draw modest
surface moisture northwestward into higher terrain of southeast
Colorado (upper 40Fs dewpoints) and plains of southwest Kansas
(upper 50Fs dewpoints).
At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen in
response to the approaching short-wave trough. The result will be
effective shear in the 30-40 knot range across the area by late
afternoon, strengthening into the evening hours as the southerly
nocturnal boundary layer wind maximum develops.
Thermodynamically, the northwesterly flow will maintain steep
mid-level lapse rates. These lapse rates, coupled with diurnal
heating, will yield MUCAPE values from around 500 J/kg in the higher
terrain of southeast Colorado to around 1000-1500 J/kg across
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas.
Continued low-level theta-e advection overnight should maintain or
increase instability across the area during the overnight.
Current thinking is that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop across terrain favored areas of eastern New Mexico and
southeast Colorado. Strengthening mid-level flow should then support
storm movement to the east/southeast into the High Plains. Initial
thunderstorms should be capable of producing marginally severe hail.
The potential exists for some isolated significant hail where higher
instability exists. With time congealing thunderstorm outflows
should result in an east/southeast moving cluster of storms with a
potential for strong, gusty winds.
A small 15% hail or wind probability may be needed in later updates
if confidence in storm coverage across southwest Kansas and portions
of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles continues to increase.
... Northern Plains and Upper Midwest ...
Despite scant low-level moisture, steepening mid-level lapse rates
may support thunderstorm development during the afternoon and
evening. These storms should be relatively high-based with dry
sub-cloud layers. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with these
storms. A 5% wind area was considered, but low confidence in overall
coverage of gusty winds precluded the introduction at this time.
... Northern Gulf Coast States and Florida ...
A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the sagging/stalled
surface front. Poor lapse rates should limit CAPE generation, but
diurnal heating of this very moist airmass should yield MUCAPE
values around 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of the area. This area
is south of the main mid-level flow, which should limit overall
thunderstorm organization, but high water content may result in a
few wet downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging wind. The
overall coverage looks to remain too low to warrant unconditional 5%
wind probabilities at this time, but will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks, particularly across portions of northern
Florida and southern Georgia.
..Marsh.. 06/14/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower
Michigan.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern US will persist on
Tuesday. A short-wave trough will move across the Great Lakes as it
moves through the basal region of the eastern US long-wave trough.
Late in the forecast period, a second short-wave trough will dig
southeast into the northern Plains.
At the surface, one front will be draped across the northern Gulf
Coast states, suppressing the richest boundary layer moisture to the
south. A second front will quickly move from the Upper Midwest
across the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning as a surface low slowly pivots across the Lake Superior.
Overnight Tuesday, cyclogenesis will occur across the northern
Plains in response to the approaching short-wave trough. A deepening
surface low will induce more substantial northward moisture
advection from the southern into central Plains.
... Midwest into Lower Michigan ...
Low-level moisture return will be tempered on Tuesday, owing to the
stalled front across the northern Gulf Coast states and only modest
low-level mass response to the approaching mid-level short-wave
trough. That said, modest southwesterly moisture advection ahead of
the cold front should support a narrow corridor of surface dewpoints
rising into the upper-50Fs to low-60Fs. At the same time, mid-level
lapse rates should steepen with the approaching trough, resulting in
MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, conditioned on the quality of the
moisture return. Storms, perhaps multiple rounds, should develop
along or ahead of the advancing front. Gusty winds and hail should
be the main hazards, with storms generally weakening with eastward
extent due to the loss of diurnal heating and weaker moisture
return.
..Marsh.. 06/14/2026
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