RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern
Rockies.
...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.
The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.
...Northern High Plains...
Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.
...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.
...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead.. 06/05/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of
broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into
northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to
translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile,
a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt
wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low
pressure and associated front are expected to remain
quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing
slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through
the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.
...Northern Plains...
A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon
with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture
on the backside of the surface front will support air mass
destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as
well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm
regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT
into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from
the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms
appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas
as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.
Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of
mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening;
however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado
threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night,
especially across western and central ND.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected
to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front.
Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with
an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early
evening.
..Mead.. 06/05/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Monday...
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally
good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into
central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West
Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level
heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface,
a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central
High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling
pressures over the Rockies.
A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the
decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO.
There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow
upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional
diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central
High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale
processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains
storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.
...Day5/Tuesday...
The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the
continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western
U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the
northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave
trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough
base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the
surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee
cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into
the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a
cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models
suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low
and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear
contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather
episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into
night.
...Day6/Wednesday...
The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern
Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some
indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the
northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the
deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and
associated jet streak translating through the northern and central
Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface,
ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains
surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold
front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward
the upper MS Valley.
Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide
with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the
overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across
the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.
...Day 7/Thursday...
The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the
Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions
begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration;
however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High
Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger
ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general
consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest
Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows
would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.
There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and
forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of
the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be
included.
...Day8/Friday...
The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse
the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the
Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models
indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable
spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal
systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather
threat.
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