RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/01/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.
...Synopsis...
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western
Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is
expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in
modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across
central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain
very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in
the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The
shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of
convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is
expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development
prior to the end of the period.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
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