RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast states. Large hail will be the primary threat in
the southern Plains. Wind damage and large hail will be possible in
the parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
states.
...Southern Plains...
Westerly mid-level flow is in place over much of the southern Plains
this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located over the Texas
Hill Country extending westward toward the Big Bend. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong
instability over much of south-central and southwest Texas, where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of
the instability max, a robust supercell is ongoing in the western
Texas Hill Country. Large to very large hail will continue to be
possible with this supercell as it moves southeastward across
south-central Texas this evening. Other supercells with potential
for large to very large hail may develop a further west and
southwest toward the Rio Grande this evening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave
trough over east Texas. At the surface, a cold front is located in
east Texas extending eastward into central Mississippi. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. The axis of instability is
located from southeast Texas eastward into southern Mississippi.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a severe convective cluster
may develop this evening ahead of the shortwave trough over east
Texas and move east-southeastward along the instability gradient
into western Louisiana. If this cluster does materialize, then it
will likely be associated with a potential for large hail and wind
damage. Otherwise, convection that develops near the instability
axis in the central Gulf Coast states this evening will have a
potential for isolated severe gusts...see MCD 623.
Further north into parts of northeast Mississippi and north-central
Alabama, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe threat this
evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats...see MCD 625.
..Broyles.. 04/30/2026
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