RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through
Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.
...Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath
large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America
(across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude
is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an
initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a
developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of
this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it
appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical
eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central
Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...
It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing
lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate
from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a
modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While
forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing
layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to
negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection
capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas
coastal areas.
..Kerr.. 01/19/2026
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