RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.
...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today,
with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A
surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the
Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime
heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates
aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and
perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on
the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode
storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal
hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt.
...Southern TX...
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak
warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at
the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft,
supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The
weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail)
chances today.
..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...
A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3
km.
Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2026
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