RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with severe outflow gusts and large
hail will persist into early tonight across the High Plains and from
northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri.
...Northern OK to southern MO...
Multiple strong-severe storms formed late this afternoon along a
stalled front from the northeast TX Panhandle eastward into northern
OK into southern MO. Seasonably high moisture content in the
boundary layer (dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and lingering warm
temperatures are contributing to MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with only
weak convective inhibition, while vertical shear is sufficient for
supercells with large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). Storms will
likely persist into tonight as a result of cell interactions and an
increase in warm advection with a strengthening low-level jet,
immediately downstream from a subtle midlevel trough now approaching
northwest OK. The stronger cells/clusters will be capable of
isolated large hail and occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph
as storms spread slowly southeastward across
northern/central/northeast OK.
A similar environment extends into southern MO along and south of
the stalled front, with a few ongoing cells/clusters. There has
been some localized tornado threat across south central MO where a
discrete storm or two are interacting with a zone of slightly
enhanced low-level shear in a moist environment, though the tornado
threat will remain localized/marginal.
...High Plains...
Widely scattered storm clusters formed this afternoon and continue
to develop this evening with interacting outflows from MT across
eastern WY/NE Panhandle into eastern CO and the western OK Panhandle
on the west edge of the moisture in a largely upslope flow regime.
This corridor is downstream from a pronounced midlevel trough over
the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest, which will encourage a nocturnal
low-level jet to support some persistence of storms into early
tonight, despite weakening buoyancy and increasing inhibition with
eastward extent. Occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail
will be the main threats.
Potential for storms to maintain a wind/hail threat a little deeper
into the overnight hours will be across southwest KS and vicinity.
The storm clusters spreading eastward from CO will encounter
somewhat richer low-level moisture (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) on the
immediate cool side of a stalled front, coincident with a nocturnal
increase in the low-level jet and associated warm advection.
...KY area...
A remnant MCV is moving eastward over western KY with the primary
storm cluster from far southern IN into central KY on the leading
edge of the ascent. These storms have exhibited a primarily linear
mode with a trailing cold pool into western KY. Earlier discrete
storms have since weakened while moving atop the rain-cooled air,
though a few storms may persist into early tonight in the warm
advection regime on the southwest flank of the MCV. The primary
severe threat appears to be isolated wind damage with the leading
line segments across central/northern KY for the next 1-2 hours
before boundary-layer stabilization weakens the storms.
..Thompson.. 06/27/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce
swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the
northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight.
Isolated wind damage will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley to the Carolinas, as well as across west Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.
...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
Embedded speed maxima will rotate northeastward over the northern
High Plains, around the eastern periphery of a close midlevel low
evolving over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will continue to spread
northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas, east of a deep lee
trough/cyclone across the central/northern High Plains. The
moistening will occur beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, which
combined with daytime heating will result in large CAPE.
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along both the
surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big
Horn Mountains. The initial storms could be supercells with very
large hail (2-3 inch diameter) near the ND/MT border, and a couple
of tornadoes with any supercells anchored along the surface
boundary, though relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and
mode concerns could temper the tornado threat somewhat. By late
evening and early tonight, storms will likely grow upscale and move
northeastward across ND as one or more MCSs with severe outflow
winds (potentially 80+ mph) in the steep lapse rate environment.
More isolated supercells will also be possible farther south into
western SD/NE where isolated very large hail and significant severe
outflow gusts will be possible.
...TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon...
An MCV now over eastern KY will continue eastward near the VA/NC
border during the day, and additional MCVs are likely to emerge from
ongoing storm clusters moving eastward across OK, southwest KS and
the TX Panhandle. Ascent with the MCVs, as well as residual
outflow/differential heating zones, will help focus thunderstorm
development during the afternoon in a moist, unstable environment.
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storm clusters where
low-level lapse rates are relatively steep (south of persistent
clouds) and there is some enhancement of midlevel flow. An isolated
tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of
the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario is low.
...TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/27/2026
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