RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.
...20z Update..
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further
southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with
recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across
central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime
heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger
cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from
BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of
hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating
cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated
large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 11/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/
...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will
further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a
weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic
flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending
northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong
low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves
offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.
With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of
the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be
limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse
rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat.
Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern
Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind
the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold
thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase
precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to
deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.
..Lyons.. 11/25/2025
Read more
