RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.
...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland
Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of
strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread
much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the
eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east
oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed
over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer
(surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to
locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250
J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will
lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to
high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A
risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense
cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear
structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland
Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.
...Mid South...
Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave
trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this
morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket
(-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR
this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints
and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated
thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to
upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several
cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon.
The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk
for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest
low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity
and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller
clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind
threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid
evening.
...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...
Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although
neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the
latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm
development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer
low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western
north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly
100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately
buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly
yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early
evening.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026
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