RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of
northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to
marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.
...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and
across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually
extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt
will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,
resulting in elongated hodographs.
At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a
quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central
KY, though this front will sink south late.
Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting
midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result
in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with
marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds
around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline
hodographs, favoring cells.
00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor
lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift
overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the
marginal area.
..Jewell.. 11/22/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will
gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling
aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will
eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and
NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the
instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC
during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out
to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,
residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result
in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting
isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer
shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse
rates do not appear to favor severe hail.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025
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