RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains
into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains,
and across parts of western Texas.
...Synopsis...
Latest GOES imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level low over southern
UT with a modest (25-35 knot) subtropical jet emanating from
northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Several shortwave
vorticity maximum are noted along the MS River Valley and across the
Southeast within a broad upper-level deformation zone. Over the next
12-24 hours, the low over southern UT will drift northeast, likely
overspreading the central High Plains by late afternoon/early
evening. As this occurs, more focused surface pressure falls and lee
cyclone development will become apparent across eastern WY/CO and
into portions of western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle.
00 UTC RAOBs across the central to southern Rockies sampled very
steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates, which should advect eastward in the
wake of ongoing convection through this afternoon given the
southwesterly mid-level flow regime. Additionally, late-evening
surface observations across the central CONUS reveal an expansive
reservoir of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s spanning from central OK into the Southeast. This
moisture will advect west/northwest through the morning and
afternoon hours in response to the surface pressure
falls/cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.
The combination of destabilizing thermal profiles aloft and
increasing low-level moisture content will promote a broad swath of
moderate to very high buoyancy from the central High Plains
southward into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development within
this unstable air mass appears likely as ascent increases through
the day along the surface trough/sharpening dryline.
...Central High Plains...
35-45 knot southerly mid-level flow across the central High Plains
will yield elongated hodographs with deep-layer shear vectors
oriented off the dryline/surface trough. This will result in
high-based supercell development initially across northeast
CO/western NE into western SD with an attendant threat for large
hail and strong outflow winds. With time, upscale growth is
anticipated as convection spreads north/northeast across NE and SD
with an increasing threat for severe winds.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Most guidance depicts a sharpening dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into western TX through the afternoon hours.
More focused forcing for ascent across central KS to northern OK
ahead of a subtle low-amplitude upper wave will likely favor
scattered thunderstorm coverage with more isolated thunderstorms
likely with southward extent into western TX. Although ample
buoyancy will be in place (MLCAPE values between 3500-4500 J/kg),
the primary limiting factor across the central/southern Plains will
be modest deep-layer wind shear. Consensus among forecast guidance
suggests effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-35 knots are
likely, which will promote a combination of supercells and
multicells. However, the steep lapse-rate environment coupled with
sufficient deep-layer wind shear will support the potential for
large hail along with severe wind gusts.
A focused corridor for a tornado threat may emerge across northern
OK to central KS where southeasterly low-level flow should support
effective SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. However, the tornado
threat will likely be highly conditional on achieving a sustained
supercell with balanced inflow/outflow. Given the increased
convective signal across northern OK/KS, 15% hail/wind
probabilities, as well as 2% tornado probabilities, have been
introduced.
...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor given MUCAPE values
upwards of 3000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear should be
in place for a few organized cells capable of large hail and perhaps
strong/severe downburst winds.
..Moore/Marsh.. 05/30/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.
...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.
Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.
Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S....AND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Monday from the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the Carolinas and southern
Appalachians.
...Central Plains/Lower To Mid Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Northern Ozarks...
Mid-level heights will rise across the central U.S. on Monday as a
ridge builds northward across the region. A broad moist sector will
be in place from the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, moderate to strong instability will develop over much of this
airmass. Due to rising heights, large-scale ascent in the central
U.S. will be limited. However, model forecasts suggest that zones of
low-level convergence will become focused, most prominently from
southern Kansas eastward into the northern Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may form along these
zones of convergence during the afternoon. The strongest instability
is forecast over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where forecast
soundings have MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, 0-6 km shear in this area is forecast to be in the 25 to
30 knot range, which should be enough to support an isolated severe
threat. Hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Further west into parts of central High Plains, some model forecasts
show an axis of low-level moisture and instability from western
Kansas into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms that
can develop near this axis of instability during the mid to late
afternoon may be associated with hail and isolated severe wind
gusts.
...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move southward from the Great
Lakes into the central Appalachians on Monday. At the surface, a
slow-moving cold front is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio
Valley southeastward into the Carolinas. South of the front, surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Lift along the frontal
zone will support thunderstorm development, with these storms moving
southeastward into the moist sector during the afternoon. Model
forecasts to the south of the front in South Carolina suggest that
MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition,
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are
forecast. This could be enough for an isolated potential for severe
wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the
upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by
Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon
and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the
Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi
Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe
threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough
and the location of maximum instability.
...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central
U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and
instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As
surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and
potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a
relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the
convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where
the greatest severe threat will be.
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