263
FXUS63 KIND 031107
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
707 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of reduced visibility in fog through 900 AM this morning

- Rain-free conditions with highs around low 80s through Wednesday

- Generally humid, seasonably warm with occasional rain/storm chances
  Wednesday night through Sunday...rain most likely Thursday-Friday

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Damp morning across central Indiana will continue to feature locally
dense fog for areas within Delaware, Henry, and Madison Counties...
with Muncie locked in at 1/4 SM...and more recent drop to 1/2 SM at
the airport 3 miles east of the center of Anderson.  Visibility is
expected to be generally 1 mile or greater for the rest of central
Indiana...per a thickening low stratus deck that has enveloped most
other areas excepting the far-southern US-50 corridor.  This
overcast will continue to mitigate more significant visibility
reductions from fog...with VIS readings 2-8 SM common.  Fog is
expected to dissipate around the 12Z-13Z timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Early this morning through tonight...

Areas of reduced visibility are possible through the pre-dawn hours
and Monday morning commute among light winds and rather damp
conditions in the mid-60s.  Quick changes/drops in visibility are
possible, especially around open fields and bodies of water.  Fog is
expected to clear by 900 AM EDT.

Narrow upper riding will slide from the Upper Midwest to
southeastern Canada over the next two periods...while corresponding
amplified, yet weak surface high pressure shifts from the Great
Lakes to central Appalachians by early Tuesday.  Despite ample
sunshine by this afternoon, light northeast breezes under H850
temperatures near 16 degrees Celsius...will yield sub-seasonal
readings, with highs around 80F for most locations. Lack of
stronger northerly advection will, however, still allow
seasonable/moderate humidity...with dewpoints maintained in the
mid-60s through much of this evening.

Tonight will feature a smaller transition to brief cooler conditions
as the surface ridge`s center passes just to the north of the CWA.
Flow will likely veer towards an easterly heading while trending
to light and variable...as noticeably lower dewpoints around
55-60F reach most counties by dawn. Mostly clear skies will
promote temperatures falling to the upper 50s/around 60F for most
zones...which will present potential for widespread fog and and
patches of visibility under 1 mile...especially where heavy
rainfall has fallen since Saturday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Central Indiana will be in between an upper low to the southeast and
a large upper trough approaching from the northwest. At the surface,
high pressure looks to remain in control. Will continue with a dry
forecast, but will have to keep an eye on the upper low. If it
drifts farther to northwest than expected, some low PoPs may have to
be added to the forecast for parts of the area.

Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 80s.

Wednesday night and beyond...

The large upper trough will move into the area at least into
Saturday. Various shortwaves will move through this trough, bringing
rounds of forcing. At the surface, a front will meander across the
area. These will be enough to keep PoPs around through the period.
Uncertainty remains relatively high on when the best forcing will be
in the area, but for now odds favor Thursday afternoon and night.

With increasing moisture, instability will be able to increase
across the area late in the week. For now, odds are low for any
severe storms, but will continue to monitor in case one of the
shortwaves becomes stronger than currently expected.

Some guidance hints at the ridge across the western USA nudging into
the area late in the weekend into early next week. This would lower
rain chances and allow temperatures to return to around 90 degrees.
Given the uncertainty, will keep highs mainly in the middle and
upper 80s into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Impacts:

- LIFR/IFR ceilings possible through 13Z
- MVFR/worse visibility in BR through 13Z at KHUF/KBMG
- Potential MVFR ceilings in cumulus through 16Z

Discussion:

Damp early morning underway for all central Indiana terminals, with
stratus ceilings at only 200-500 feet locked-in, with lowest decks
over KBMG/ KHUF...and concurrent visibility reduction from BR to
MVFR at KHUF and IFR/MVFR at KBMG.  Expect conditions to improve
through 13Z...with ceilings rising to MVFR and/or scattering out by
14Z for most locations.

Further occasional MVFR ceilings are possible across the region thru
midday should low cumulus field reach BKN coverage.  Remainder of
TAF period to favor most-often VFR conditions amid light northeast
flow through 06Z tonight.  Calm and mostly clear conditions later
tonight could once again promote fog.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...50/AGM