355
FXUS63 KIND 150528 AAA
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
128 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances this morning associated with a decaying storm complex

- Better chances for showers and storms Saturday along with much
  warmer temperatures

- Daily storm chances continue Sunday into early next week with much
  warmer than normal temperatures continuing through Monday

- A frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday will bring additional
  chances for strong to severe storms along with cooler weather afterwards

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Overview.

Today will be the start of a significant transition from the recent
cool and dry conditions toward a much warmer, more humid, and active
pattern. Rain chances today will mostly be limited to the morning
hours with daily chances for showers and storms continuing Saturday
into early next week. The much warmer pattern will also bring highs
into the 80s starting Saturday and continuing through much of early
next week with a low-end chance for the first 90 degree day of the
year. More seasonable temperatures look likely late next week
towards the weekend with additional low rain chances.

Today through Saturday.

A shift in the broader synoptic pattern will begin today as surface
high pressure departs to the east, allowing southerly winds to draw
moisture northward from the Gulf. A weak upper-level disturbance is
projected to cross the area on Friday morning, bringing decaying
storm complex which is expected to bring showers to the western half
of the forecast area with some uncertainty as to the eastern extent.
Daytime temperatures will recover into the lower 70s under mostly
cloudy skies.

Conditions become more favorable for organized weather on Saturday
as a plume of higher moisture and atmospheric instability pushes
into the Ohio Valley. Latest Hi-Res guidance indicates a stronger
shortwave of energy will arrive from the west, likely triggering
scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. While widespread severe
weather is not currently expected for Saturday, the increasing
moisture content and rising temperatures into the low to mid 80s
will provide enough instability for some storms to produce heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Total rainfall amounts through Saturday
could vary, but the main impact will be the change to a more humid
and unstable environment that will continue into early next week.

Sunday through Thursday.

The most significant weather impacts are expected during the first
half of next week as an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure
builds over the East Coast with the Ohio Valley within stronger
southwesterly flow. This setup will push a warm front north of the
region on Sunday, bringing both warmer temperatures and some of the
highest dewpoints of the season. High temperatures on Sunday and
Monday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s, with some
locations potentially flirting with the 90-degree mark for the first
time this year.

Monday appears to be the most favorable day for potential strong to
severe storms. A strong low-level jet stream will transport deep
moisture into the area, raising surface dew points into the upper
60s. Currently, model ensembles suggest a potent cold front will
approach late Monday or Tuesday with numerous to widespread showers
and storms ahead of the frontal passage. Given the high levels of
instability available, a threat for severe thunderstorms including
damaging winds and large hail will be possible during this window.
The timing of the cold front remains slightly uncertain, with some
simulations holding the boundary back until Wednesday. Regardless of
exact timing, a noticeable cooling trend will follow the front, with
high pressure likely returning by next Thursday to provide drier
conditions and more seasonable temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for rain from 13-16Z.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly clear
skies and light winds through tonight. Rain chances begin to
increase after 12Z as a decaying complex of storms moves in from the
west. Highest confidence for precip will be at HUF and BMG with
lower chances at IND and LAF. Cigs will drop to around 050 with the
rain with a gradual clearing towards mid to late afternoon. There
could be a rumble of thunder or two, but confidence is too low to
mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will generally remain
southwesterly to southerly at 7-12kts through the TAF period with a
few gusts up to 20kts possible.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White