250
FXUS63 KIND 081015
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
615 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Well above normal temperatures through the middle of the upcoming
  week

- Locally heavy rainfall is again possible late Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong ongoing flooding

- Potential for stronger storms to impact the region Tuesday night
  and Wednesday

- Cooler temperatures for late this week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Thick stratus remains across the forecast area early this morning as
moisture is trapped beneath a shallow yet sharp inversion around
925mb. W/NW winds remain brisk but have been steadily diminishing
since last evening. 07Z temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to
the mid 40s.

After the waterlogged last several days across the Ohio Valley...the
region will finally get a breather from the active pattern for a few
days as a broad area of high pressure drifts east from the southern
Plains into the lower and middle Appalachians by Monday night. A
quasi-zonal split flow regime aloft will maintain a mild Pacific
origin airmass across much of the country with low level southerly
flow advecting warmer air into the region once again by the early
part of the week.

The back edge of the stratus is making steady progress eastward
across Illinois early this morning and expect the stratus to begin
mixing out in the Wabash Valley in the next few hours. Model
soundings show the presence of very dry air above the inversion and
as subsidence increases through the column this morning...this will
help to erode the inversion with skies clearing across the entire
forecast area through the morning. Mostly clear skies are then
expected for the rest of the short term through Monday evening as
subsidence and dry air settles across the Ohio Valley. Thin mid and
high clouds may drift across the forecast area at times as subtle
waves aloft pass through the northern Great Lakes.

The presence of a strong low pressure tracking east across Ontario
and Quebec while the high passes by to the south will maintain a
modest pressure gradient across the region and support breezy
conditions focus especially during the afternoon today and Monday.
Peak gusts to around 25 mph will be possible across the northern
half of the forecast area in particular.

Temps...a slightly cooler airmass has overspread the region this
morning but temperatures will remain at above normal levels through
Monday. Low level thermals support highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s today...then near 70 degrees Monday as warm advection
strengthens with the onset of southwesterly flow. Lows tonight will
be in the lower and mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

After the dry start to the work week...rain chances will return as
early as Tuesday morning and continue through mid week as the
northern jet stream and a cutoff low over the southwest U S ejecting
east combine to promote broad moisture advection into the Ohio
Valley along and ahead of a frontal zone stretching from a strong
surface low over the Canadian Maritimes back to an area of lee
cyclogenesis kicking out of the central Rockies.

Guidance has trended back toward more phasing of the cutoff low and
the prevailing westerlies aloft...producing moist southwest flow
into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of the surface low
and an associated cold front tracking from the High Plains into the
Great Lakes. The potential for heavy rainfall to impact the forecast
area late Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday has increased
along with a risk for more intense convection within a high shear-
low instability regime ahead of the front.

Even with a 60 to 72 hour break in heavier rainfall for the
region...antecedent conditions between the ongoing river flooding
and waterlogged ground will mean that it will not take much in the
way of high rainfall rates to produce renewed areal and perhaps
flash flooding in addition to potentially prolonging if not
exacerbating the river flooding. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
are possible from late Tuesday through much of Wednesday with
locally higher amounts. Will continue to monitor trends as the
pattern evolves over the next few days.

After continued warmth Tuesday into early Wednesday with 70s likely
yet again and especially on Tuesday when record highs may be
threatened...cooler air will filter in with the passage of the front
late Wednesday with more seasonable readings in the 40s and 50s into
next weekend. Fast moving upper level waves to the north will bring
periodic threats for light precipitation at times into the first
part of next weekend. A stronger low pressure system will pivot
across the area Sunday with signs of another opportunity for more
plentiful rainfall. In the wake of this system...colder air will
filter into the area with an amplified upper level ridge west-trough
east developing in the 7 to 10 day time period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings dissipating through mid morning, then VFR expected
- Gusts to 20kts possible at KLAF this afternoon

Discussion:

Back edge of the stratus is about to clear KLAF and will gradually
shift east of the terminals over the next few hours. Expect clear
skies across the area by late morning with just a few mid and high
clouds drifting across the region through early Monday.

Winds will back to southwest and increase to 10-15kts this afternoon
Periodic gusts to 20kts are possible at KLAF. Light southerly flow
is expected tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan