301
FXUS63 KIND 201419
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
919 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Sunny Today, temperatures warming into the 20s this
  afternoon

- Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights with continued
  cold temperatures through early next week

- Snow possible late Saturday into Sunday as a winter storm passes
  to the south

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with little to no changes made.
Latest surface analysis depicts surface high pressure centered just
south of Indiana. Large scale subsidence from the high will keep
weather conditions quiet. Look for return flow combined with mostly
sunny skies to warm temperatures into the 20s after a cold start to
the day. Some gradual increase in clouds can be expected later today
into tonight ahead of an approaching weak system.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Surface analysis shows strong high pressure in place over OK. A
ridge axis was extending northeast from the high pressure system
across Indiana and Ohio. Low pressure was found well to the
northeast, resulting in NW flow across the Great Lakes and westerly
flow over Indiana. The high was an arctic air mass with temperatures
in the single digits at most points across Central Indiana. Aloft,
water vapor showed broad cyclonic flow in place across the CONUS
east of the Rockies, with NW flow prevailing across the upper
midwest, spilling into central Indiana. This puts Central Indiana in
a favorable location for subsidence. GOES19 shows a leaf of mid
cloud within the NW flow aloft, quickly pushing SE, with more clear
skies found upstream over IA and MN.

Today...

Cold and quiet weather is expected today. Models suggest the surface
high pressure system will drift to the east, pushing toward the
Tennessee river valley while maintaining control of central
Indiana/s weather also. The upper pattern remains relatively
unchanged, with the cold, northwest, Canadian flow in place. Again,
little in the way of forcing dynamics will pass. Forecast soundings
show a dry column through the day with an inversion aloft. Thus a
mostly sunny day is expected.

Warm air advection is in place today mainly due to the core of cold
air exiting the area. 850mb temp improve to near -10C by late
afternoon, which should allow for highs to reach the lower and
middle 20s.

Tonight...

Another quiet but not as cold night is expected tonight. The broad
NW flow aloft will remain in place, however by late overnight, a
short wave providing some forcing appear to approach Indiana after
09Z. This will provide limited upper level forcing. Meanwhile
within the lower levels, southwest lower level flow remains in
place due to the departing high to the east, but a trough is seen
approaching Indiana over IL and MO late overnight. This appears to
be associated with the upper wave. None the less, the lower levels
remain very dry as the high pressure to the south continue to block
true gulf moisture and dew points are suggested to be in the single
digits or teens. Not enough moisture. Forecast soundings show a dry
column through the evening with saturation arriving aloft late
overnight. Thus an increasing cloudiness forecast will be used.

Warm air advection and the arrival of clouds are also expected
overnight. Thus warmer lows in the lower 20s will be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Wednesday Through Thursday.

During the daytime hours on Wednesday a weak clipper system will
interact with the strengthening southerly flow which could bring
precipitation to portions of central Indiana but there still remains
a fair amount of uncertainty as to where precipitation onset occurs
with some models keeping rain/snow to the north and east of central
Indiana while others initiate over the area. Thus will continue to
keep low POPs across the area with highest values in the east. With
temperatures near freezing, precipitation type also remains
uncertain with the potential for both rain and snow. Another blast
of colder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday in the
aftermath of the system but the magnitude of the colder air doesn`t
look quite as robust as what is expected for the early this week.

Friday Through Early Next Week.

A much stronger blast of cold air looks likely Friday into the
weekend as arctic air slinks southeastward in the aftermath of the
exiting system and a 1048mb high builds over the Upper Midwest.
Confidence is high in much colder than normal temperatures for the
weekend with the potential for overnight lows at or below normal,
especially over portions of north central Indiana. There continues
to be some model differences on the northern extent of the
precipitation with at least some low chances for snow as far north
as central Indiana but with the strength of the high to the
northwest and the fact that models often overdo the precipitation on
the northern periphery of the system, feel fairly confident that
much if not all of central Indiana will remain dry.

The high will gradually begin to break down Sunday into early next
week, but the pattern continues to favor below normal temperatures
for much of next week with signs of another intrusion of cold air
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 559 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Impacts:

- Wind shift from west to south towards 18Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Cigs will be around
10kft today with some clearing towards the afternoon hours. Winds
will gradually shift from the west to the south during the morning
hours with southerly winds of 8-12kts after 18Z. There may be a few
gusts late tonight, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF
at this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White