596
FXUS63 KIND 052340
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
640 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds diminish by early evening

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday, especially first half
  of the day

- Much colder starting Sunday with chances for light precipitation
  late Saturday through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Winds will continue to be gusty as a cold front moves through the
area, with direction becoming northwest.

Very warm temperatures will continue, with the warmest readings
south. Temperatures in the north will steady out or even cool a bit
as cold advection kicks in.

Tonight...

Winds will diminish quickly as heating is lost and as high pressure
builds into the area.

The high will continue to move in during the night, keeping the
weather quiet. With a dry atmosphere and light winds, temperatures
will fall into the 30s for lows.

Even though the atmosphere is dry, some guidance, including the
HRRR, is showing patchy fog developing late in the night. Confidence
isn`t high, but given the HRRR`s inclusion over multiple runs, will
go ahead and mention patchy fog for parts of the area.

Thursday...

High pressure will slide east on Thursday, but its influence will
still be felt across the area. Some high clouds will move in during
the day, but skies will still be partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Friday...

An upper trough and surface cold front will move through the area
and bring decent forcing. Enough moisture will be drawn north ahead
of the front to interact with this forcing to produce a period of
widespread showers, especially during the first half of the day.
Will go with high PoPs.

Even though rain will fall, amounts do not look impressive with the
best moisture confined farther south. There will be some instability
ahead of the front, enough to mention thunderstorms. However, given
the timing of the front, and the fact that better shear and
instability will be confined to the south and southeast of central
Indiana, severe storms are not expected.

Breezy conditions can be expected with highs in the 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

During the day Saturday a stronger upper wave and an area of surface
low pressure will approach the area. Southerly winds ahead of the
system will bring in another round of moisture, but forcing won`t be
much during the day. Will have low PoPs then.

During Saturday night, the best forcing will move in as a surface
low moves across Indiana. Questions remain on the path and strength
of the surface low, but for now enough forcing will be present to go
with likely category PoPs most areas.

Cold air will flow into the area later Saturday night, but it may
not arrive fast enough for any of the main area of precipitation to
mix with snow. Will continue to monitor.

Sunday and Monday...

The main surface low will move east of the area by early Sunday, but
the upper trough will still be digging into the area. This may
provide some weak forcing. Much colder air will continue to flow
south into central Indiana during Sunday, most likely resulting in
near steady or slowly falling temperatures during the day.

The cold air flowing over warm Lake Michigan will create some lake
effect snow showers. The eventual wind direction will determine
exactly where these set up and how far they reach into central
Indiana. Will keep some lower PoPs across mainly the eastern half to
two-thirds of the forecast area. Will continue to mention a mix of
rain and snow as questions remain on how cold the lowest levels of
the atmosphere will be.

The 00Z ECMWF showed a secondary surface low coming south Sunday
night, while the 12Z shows more of a trough. If the secondary low
occurs, the snow showers could be enhanced. Will continue low PoPs
Sunday night and continue to monitor.

For now only expect little or no snow accumulation, with any
accumulations mainly in the northern forecast area. If some of the
stronger solutions pan out, minor accumulations could occur north.

A few lake effect snow showers may still impact the northeast
forecast area Monday, so will keep slight chance PoPs there.

Temperatures will fall Sunday into Sunday night, eventually
bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s late Sunday night. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 30s to around 40.

Tuesday and beyond...

Temperatures will return to closer to normal by Wednesday ahead of
another front. The front won`t have any moisture to work with, so
will continue with a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability for fog near 12Z Thursday

Discussion:

Winds will continue to quickly diminish this evening as high
pressure brings lower winds through the morning hours. Light winds
and mostly clear skies may allow some ground fog to form by 12z but
confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs.

Mainly high clouds are expected at times through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KF