150
FXUS63 KIND 051407
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
907 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near daily rain and occasional thunderstorm chances this week into
  early next, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall likely from
  this morning into Saturday

- Widespread minor to moderate flooding expected across central and
  southern portions of the area, with localized major flooding possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible Friday into early Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth
  likely Friday and potentially early next week as well

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows a warm front stretched
across northern Indiana, just north of a LAF-OKK line, but just
south of Van Wert OH. Temperatures across Central Indiana were in
the 50s, while on the north side of the front temperature were
mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Radar this morning shows a
cluster of rain showers over southern Illinois and southern and
Central Indiana pushing NE just south of the front. Water vapor
showed a mid level short wave over IA and NW IL pushing east with
subsidence over MO and western IL pushing east.

Through late morning, the surge of rain showers will continue to
progress northeast across southern and central Indiana. Helping to
push this east will be the approach of the upper trough and
associated subsidence. Forecast soundings show this as top down
subsidence begins to build across the area through the afternoon
hours. Still, several more hours of high pops will be needed this
morning as the rain showers exit northeast. This afternoon, will
trend the pops lower as subsidence arrives. Overall clouds will
remain across the area as plenty of lower levels clouds across the
region remain. Forecast soundings support this, showing saturation
within the lower levels. Highs in the lower 60s will be expected
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Another round of light to moderate rainfall with heavier pockets is
moving through central Indiana this morning, which will require
close monitoring as the ground over central and southern portions of
the area is already heavily waterlogged due to a widespread 3-5 plus
inches of rain in the past 48 hours. Will maintain the ongoing flood
watch through noon as scheduled.

Global and high resolution models are in good agreement that a lull
is coming later today once this complex departs the area, though
will have to maintain at least chance PoPs with the warm front still
in the area. Forecast soundings do depict some weak instability
redeveloping this afternoon which may allow renewed development of a
few showers and storms this afternoon. Severe threat appears quite
minimal through tonight with weak lapse rates.

A lull is expected for much of the area this evening before rain
chances increase again from south to north as isentropic lift ramps
up again over the area. Weaker overall forcing for ascent suggests
significantly lighter amounts, though with climatologically extreme
precipitable water values remaining in place, any showers or storms
will have the potential to produce pockets of heavy rainfall and a
renewed areal or flash flooding threat, in addition to contributing
to the developing main stem river flooding problem.

Despite widespread cloud cover today and precip at least early in
the day, temperatures should climb well into the 60s across most of
the area as the warm front continues to make slow progress northward.

Onset of precip has increased mixing and scavenged fog droplets,
allowing visibilities to improve dramatically and allowing
substantial trimming of the dense fog advisory. Will be able to
allow the remainder to end on schedule in the next couple of hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

As the area moves into the open warm sector on Friday into Friday
evening, another lull in precip is likely, as at least some capping
will be present, though a few storms cannot completely be ruled out
Friday afternoon, which could pose an isolated severe threat given a
bit more substantial instability aloft and adequate deep layer
shear.

More widespread showers and storms are likely late Friday night into
Saturday as the cold front finally makes its way through the region.
Again, precipitable water values will be extreme for the time of
year, posing a heavy rainfall threat on heavily saturated ground.
Though frontal timing appears unlikely to be diurnally favorable for
severe, fairly strong deep layer shear and at least weak instability
may allow for one or more lines or clusters of weakening storms from
upstream to move into the area and pose at least an isolated severe
threat during this time frame as well, though hydrologic concerns
will be by far the more pressing issue.

In the wake of frontal passage, we look to see at least a 48 hour or
so dry period, though this will only marginally improve the soil
moisture conditions given what may end up being a widespread 4-8+
inches of rainfall in 4-5 days time by the time dry weather returns
Saturday night. Rain chances will return again by late Monday into
Tuesday as a closed low moving out of the southwestern CONUS directs
large scale moisture transport back into the region by early to mid
week.

Widespread minor to moderate flooding across the entirety of the
East Fork White basin, and the lower half or so of the Wabash and
White basins, is a virtual certainty given what has already occurred
and expectations over the forecast period. The lower portions of
these basins where they meet in southwest Indiana will likely see
flooding lasting at least a few weeks. Per both the latest
deterministic river forecasts and hydrologic ensembles, there is a
substantial chance of one or more points reaching major flood stage,
and those with interests along area rivers are strongly advised to
closely monitor the flooding situation in the coming days and weeks.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through nearly the entire
long term period, with records in danger on Friday and potentially
early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 635 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions redeveloping later today

- Widespread rain ending this morning, additional showers and storms
  possible later today into tonight

Discussion:

Low confidence forecast as guidance is struggling with details, but
borderline VFR/MVFR conditions early on are likely to return to MVFR
later this morning and remain there, if not drop to IFR again
tonight.

Widespread rain will come to an end later this morning, though
additional showers and some storms will be possible later today into
tonight. Thunderstorm chances will be highest near peak heating and
will carry a PROB30 group at IND/HUF/BMG.

Winds will trend more southwesterly with time before backing a bit
this evening, but will be below 10KT throughout the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon EST today for INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield