583
FXUS63 KIND 101922
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
222 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry into the late week...with slightly above normal
  temperatures amid often light winds and ample sun

- Rain is possible Saturday night-Sunday, especially south of I-
  70...with uncertainty on the exact timing/amounts

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder
  conditions expected

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front is working its way through central Indiana as of 19z.
The front is advancing from the northwest, and is roughly halfway
between Lafayette and Indianapolis. Surface observations show little
in the way of a temperature change behind the front, at least not
immediately. One has to go much further upstream to find the cooler
air. Currently across central Indiana, temperatures range from the
upper 40s into the low 60s. Temps have been running well above
guidance today, at or near the NBM 90th percentile. Blended guidance
has a difficult time in situations like today, because quite a few
model members suffer from a cold bias that brings the blend down a
bit.

Going forward into tonight, temperatures cool gradually in the post-
front environment. Some clouds may develop along the boundary as it
exits the region, with any rain showers expected to be south of
our CWA. Winds do not appear to calm down entirely overnight,
especially in open areas. A few sheltered areas likely see a
period of light and variable winds tonight. Overall, the primary
wind direction will be from the northwest. With generally clear
skies, relatively light winds, and patchy residual snow
pack...modest radiative cooling potential is possible. Lows in the
20s will be common, with pockets of low 20s in the calmer
locations.

Heading into Wednesday, guidance is in good agreement showing a
broad area of stratus dropping southward out of the Great Lakes
tonight. These clouds may be more prevalent across the eastern half
of our CWA. The primary forecast challenge they pose is how they
modulate high temperatures. If the clouds are persistent, then highs
may be stuck in the mid 30s. Away from the clouds, temperatures may
rebound into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Troughing will persist to our east late this week, with high-
latitude ridging building to our west into Canada. Ridging and
associated anomalous midlevel heights will prograde into the eastern
part of the country this weekend in tandem with a relatively compact
midlevel low. Trends have been for the low to track well south of
our area, with ascent/precip in the majority of ensemble members
staying south of central Indiana. Given the trends, our
precipitation probabilities and amounts will be lower this weekend.
Early next week ensemble mean has strong anomalous ridging over our
area with ~20 degree positive 2-m temperature anomalies for Indiana.
At some point the deepening western ridge and associated strong mid-
latitude system moves east impacting the area, but timing
discrepancies exist in the medium range guidance and it appears this
will happen later in the week, after the 7-day forecast period.
Until this system passes, above normal temperatures are expected to
persist.

Ice jam flooding may occur into the weekend or early next week. With
rain amounts trending lower, this may help alleviate the magnitude
of the concern as river rises and resulted breakup may not be as
dramatic or rapid. Still, a warming pattern will cause some breakup
and potential river flooding. Details will become more clear as the
week progresses.

In the 8-14 period, ensemble mean has continued ridging in the east
and troughing in the west with above normal temperatures for Indiana
and at least normal precip amounts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon and Wednesday morning
- Wind shift to NW this afternoon

Discussion:

A cold front is approaching from the northwest and will bring a wind
shift this afternoon. Guidance is in good agreement showing some
cloud development along the front as it encounters rich boundary
layer moisture over central Indiana. There is a chance that the
resulting stratus becomes BKN to OVC resulting in brief MVFR
conditions. The best timing for that would be as the front is
passing through between 19z-00z this afternoon/evening.

With winds taking on a northerly component today into Wednesday,
another period of stratus is possible Wednesday morning. This
stratus is arrives from the north and may also become BKN at times.
The best chance for MVFR ceilings is from IND to BMG between 10z and
18z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Eckhoff