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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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124 FXUS63 KIND 212259 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 559 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts up to 40 mph overnight, strongest north of I-70. - Near zero or Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights along with potentially dangerous wind chills at or below -10F. - Increasing confidence in impacts from a winter storm this weekend, but uncertainty remains in exact details. - At least minor impacts from snow expected across much of central Indiana with the potential for more significant impacts south of the I-70 corridor. - Very cold temperatures persist into next week with potentially dangerous wind chills possible at times. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 304 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 Compact shortwave/vort center over the Mid-MO valley will shift quickly SE into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Model guidance (even the CAMS) have been undoing the strength of the surface winds associated with steep low level lapse rates/strong CAA and a strong pressure fall/rise couplet over the central plains. Despite some decrease in the BL lapse rates, have bumped up the winds and gusts across the forecast area with northern portions of central Indiana likely to see a few hours of wind gusts from 35-40 mph between 05 and 09Z in the wake of the surface frontal passage. An SPS will be issued highlighting these wind gusts tonight. Winds should subside towards morning as the shortwave shifts rapidly eastward and pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure builds into the lower Ohio/MS valley. Westerly wind gusts around 20 mph are expected during the afternoon hours tomorrow owing to another day of steep low level lapse rates on the fringes of the high pressure ridge. High temperatures on Thursday will be colder than today, owing to the cold advection associated with this compact vort crossing the region. However, the airmass in the wake of the tonight`s front is a modified airmass from downslope conditions in the high plains. Therefore temperatures will not be significantly colder than today (only -8 deg C fall at 850 mb). Increasing high clouds during the day will be the prelude to the developing storm system over the plains which will move into the region this weekend. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 304 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 Thursday night through Friday... Surface high pressure remaining in control will keep weather conditions quiet. The main concern during this period is model guidance continues to be in good agreement showing additional shots of colder air with an arctic front pushing south. Look for stronger cold air advection to drop temperatures into the single digits and teens Thursday night into Friday morning with highs only in the single digits to teens Friday. Near or slightly below zero lows are possible for far northwestern counties. These temperatures and breezy conditions behind the front will likely lead to potentially dangerous wind chills between -10 to -19F towards daybreak Friday. Look for wind chills to then remain below zero for most locations through the day. Friday night through next Wednesday... High confidence remains for below normal temperatures to persist with potentially dangerous wind chills at times as the much colder airmass settles in. Single digit or near zero lows are likely for many areas through early next week. Wind chills could be as low as - 10F to -18F at times, primarily over the northwest half of the forecast area. The concern then shifts to the synoptic setup over the weekend as model guidance depicts a strong system developing, likely resulting in major travel impacts for a large part of the country. The aforementioned arctic front should settle south of the region by this weekend leading to a strong baroclinic zone over the mid-south. Meanwhile aloft, the sub-tropical jet and polar jet will phase together. This will promote strong divergence within the right entrance region of an impressive upper level jet supporting surface cyclogenesis across the mid-south. Strong dynamics combined with an associated strong LLJ surging anomalous gulf moisture northward favors widespread wintry precipitation late Saturday into Sunday. Latest guidance over the past 24 hours has trended further north, especially the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles leading to higher confidence in impacts from snow across portions of central Indiana. That being said, the GFS ensemble continues to remain further south regarding the storm track and heavier snowfall amounts which limits confidence in exact details. At least minor impacts appear likely for much of the area. Locations near or south of the I-70 corridor have the potential for more significant impacts from heavier snowfall, especially across far south/southeast portions of central Indiana, if the more northern solutions in guidance hold. The very cold airmass in place should promote high SLRs. Confidence in exact details regarding snow amounts or impacts will remain limited until models become better aligned. These details should become clearer over the next 24-48 hours. The greatest chance for accumulating snow would likely still be across the south/southeast where the strongest forcing and deepest moisture should overlap. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely for any changes so stay tuned. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 558 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 Impacts: - LLWS between 02-06Z during cargo ops - Wind shift to WNW with brief gusts 25-35 kts from 05-09Z Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the period, as MVFR ceilings look to remain just east of KBMG early in the period. Otherwise, some mid and high clouds will be around from time to time. Winds at 2000ft will increase to around 50 kts between 02-06Z ahead of a cold front leading to LLWS during this time period (and during the KIND cargo ops). Behind the cold front, winds are expected to shift to the WNW and gusts increase to 25-35 kts for a few hour wind through about 09Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Crosbie LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...50/Crosbie |
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