103
FXUS63 KIND 110304
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending late this afternoon.

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph tonight

- Snow showers possible late tonight.

- Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the
  potential for light snow showers late Wednesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

A band of snow showers has entered central Indiana from the NW.
These showers have been moving pretty quickly and producing brief
heavy snow and reduced visibilities. As of 10 PM, Lafayette was at
half a mile so expecting heaviest snow to continue across our
northern counties, dropping a quick inch of snow, maybe even as much
as 2 inches before its done.

As far as the forecast, made some adjustments to PoPs to match
current observations as well as increased winds overnight. Other
than that, forecast is in good shape.

Watch out for potentially slick roads as snow moves through and a
quick change is visibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad area of low
pressure over Ohio and the Great Lakes. An associated cold front was
found pushing across Indiana. Aloft, a deep upper low was found over
MN, with a clear signature found within water vapor imagery. The low
was associated with a deep upper trough, stretching across IA, MO/KS
to the southern plains. This was resulting in southwest flow across
Indiana, ahead of the approaching surface trough. Radar shows an
area of showers pushing into Western and Central Indiana.

Tonight...

Models suggest strong cyclonic flow in place aloft as the upper low
pushes southeast to MI. A trough pivoting around the low is expected
to push across Indiana overnight, providing some forcing. Within the
lower levels a weak trough is noted passing, poised to push across
Indiana overnight while much strong high pressure builds across the
plains. Time heights and forecast soundings show good lower and mid
level saturation with this weak trough and HRRR suggest a quick
moving band of snow showers pushing across the state associated with
this within the cyclonic flow. At this point forecast soundings show
the entire column below freezing due to ongoing cold air advection.
Overall forcing and moisture remains limited, thus snow is expected
but amounts and impacts should be quite minimal for this short
duration, quick moving event. Of note, the strong pressure gradient
across the area will once again lead to gusty winds tonight and on
Sunday. Given the strong cold air advection, lows tonight will into
the lower 20s.

Sunday...

Quiet but cold weather will return to the area for Sunday. The
previous low pressure system will continue to rapidly depart
northeast, allowing the strong surface high pressure system over the
plains to build across Indiana through the day. This will lead to a
gradual shift shift of morning cyclonic flow to afternoon anti-
cyclonic flow. Aloft, ridging in the wake of the departed upper
trough will develop over the upper midwest, placing Indiana within
NW flow and subsidence. Thus this will lead to a mostly cloudy start
to the day with decreasing cloudiness expected in the afternoon.
Given the cold air mass in place over Indiana Highs will only reach
the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Sunday night through Wednesday...

Model guidance depicts mostly quiet weather to begin the extended as
surface ridging remains across the area. Impulses moving through
aloft will enhance cloud cover at times early in the work week, but
very limited moisture return should inhibit any precipitation. A
more organized system is then expected to push a frontal boundary
across central Indiana late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sufficient moisture and strengthening dynamics from the approaching
disturbance will promote increasing precipitation chances. Thermal
profiles suggest rain as the dominant precipitation type through
Tuesday night. Falling temperatures due to cold air advection behind
the departing cold front should allow for some light snow to mix in
Wednesday.

Highs in the low-mid 40s will warm into the mid 40s to low 50s
within persistent southwesterly flow. Highs then fall into the mid
30s to low 40s Wednesday once colder air filters in Wednesday.
Breezy conditions are likely each day as a sufficient pressure
gradient remains.

Wednesday night through next Saturday...

A few light snow showers or flurries may linger through early
Thursday morning before surface high pressure builds across the
region. Quiet weather conditions are then likely for much of the day
due to increasing large scale subsidence. Expect cold air advection
to continue trending temperatures colder. Lows wednesday night are
likely going to range from the mid teens to low 20s with highs on
Thursday in the upper 20s to low 30s. Wind chills Wednesday night
into Thursday morning may fall into the single digits for areas near
or north of I-70.

Another deep trough approaching late week into next weekend will
promote additional low chances for precipitation. Thermal profiles
suggest snow would be the predominant precipitation type as colder
air remains over the region. Exact details remain uncertain due to
diverging model solutions, but relatively weak forcing and marginal
moisture return should keep any QPF amounts light. Below normal
temperatures are likely to persist with deep troughing over the
eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 923 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Impacts:

- Snow showers possible overnight, brief drop in vis possible
- MVFR ceilings return again late tonight through part of Sunday
- WNW gusts to 20-30kt again overnight through midday

Discussion:

The TAF period will start off with mostly clear skies but prior to
midnight clouds will return with chance of snow showers through the
night. Ceilings are expected to drop back to MVFR with this band of
snow and could remain into midday although there is low confidence
on when the ceilings lift. A quick drop in vis will also be possible
within the snow, further west some sites have dropped to a mile or
less. Not sure it will drop that low within central Indiana but
possible. LAF will have the best chance of lowest vis. Wind gusts of
up to 20-30 kts will return tonight and should last through midday
tomorrow.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...KF