153
FXUS63 KIND 091922
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
222 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing cloudiness this evening, becoming cloud overnight.

- Cloudy and mild on Saturday with a brief period of rain showers
  during the late morning or early afternoon.

- Rain showers to snow showers Saturday night, minor accumulations
  up to a few tenths of an inch possible through early Sun AM

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a cold front pushing
east over Central OH and Central KY. This was associated with a
strong low pressure area moving rapidly NE across Ontario. The low
was providing moderate cyclonic flow across Indiana. This was
resulting in wind gusts near 30 mph. A ridge of high pressure was
building into Indiana from the plains states. Aloft, water vapor
showed southwest flow in place over Indiana and another upper low
was found emerging over the TX and OK panhandles. Another upper
trough was found over the northern plains. Subsidence was shown in
the wake of the front.

Tonight...

Models show SW flow in place aloft over Indiana tonight. This is
associated with a deepening trough over south central Canada,
pushing into the Great Lakes. All the best forcing with this feature
will remain well to the northwest of Indiana tonight, but it will
come into play on Saturday. Meanwhile within the lower levels
surface high pressure will be moving across Indiana. Forecast
soundings appear to have begun to pick up on possible evening
clearing as subsidence builds across the region. Given upstream
trends, will try to trend toward a decreasing cloudiness sky this
evening, but increase cloud cover tonight as lower level moisture
will return as warm air advection begins again on southerly winds
aloft along with the approach of Saturday`s system. Overnight lows
should fall to the middle and upper 30s, with some brief clearing in
place early in the evening.

Saturday...

Models show the upper low diving SE across WI and toward Indiana on
Saturday. Strong cyclonic flow is suggested to develop aloft. A wave
of forcing is pulled into the low and across Indiana during the day.
With this wave models agree a thin band of showers will push across
Indiana during the middle of the day. As this wave passes, forecast
soundings show good lower and mid level saturation with pwats near
0.67. Thus confidence is high for a brief period of rain showers
during the late morning and early afternoon due to these features.
Gusty 20-30 mph winds will return as a stronger pressure gradient
arrives across the area. Highs should reach the middle and upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Saturday night through Sunday...

Look for colder air to filter into the region over the second half
of the weekend behind a departing low pressure system. The parent
trough remaining overhead along with low-level cyclonic flow and
marginal moisture supports the potential for scattered light snow
showers or flurries Saturday night through early Sunday morning.
Only very light snow accumulations between a trace and a few tenths
of an inch are expected. However, steepening low-mid level lapse
rates within the cold air advection regime favors increasing 0-3km
CAPE and the potential for locally heavier snow showers. This may
lead to slightly higher snow amounts in localized areas, but CAMs
still show considerable disagreement regarding snow shower coverage
with the HRRR being the most aggressive.

Model trends will continue to be monitored closely. Be cautious of
any slick spots on roadways late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning, especially if any heavier snow showers develop like some
CAMs suggest. Flurries or an isolated light snow shower may linger
over northeast central Indiana Sunday morning. Surface high pressure
will then build in through the day providing quiet weather along
with decreasing clouds.

Sunday night through Friday...

Model guidance depicts surface high pressure remaining in control
for much of this period providing quiet weather conditions. A few
shortwave troughs aloft are expected to pass through the area, but
very limited moisture return should inhibit precipitation. Low rain
chances return late Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary and deeper trough. An additional wave embedded
within deep broad troughing aloft combined with sufficient moisture
will increase precipitation chances into Wednesday. Falling
temperatures due to cold air advection should allow for light snow
to mix in.

Surface high pressure building in Thursday supports dry weather
though guidance depicts another system quickly approaching late week
leading to additional low chances for precipitation. Thermal
profiles suggest snow would be the predominant precipitation type as
colder air settles over the region. Exact details remain uncertain
due to diverging model solutions, but relatively weak forcing and
marginal moisture return should keep any QPF amounts light.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Impacts:

- Strong W wind gusts between 30-40kt, diminishing this
afternoon.

- MVFR stratus expected.

- Precipitation chances on late Saturday morning.

Discussion:

The strong pressure gradient in place across Central Indiana will
depart to the northeast along with its associated low pressure
system this afternoon. This will allow high pressure over the
plains to build across Indiana and gusty winds will end.

GOES19 shows extensive stratocu...MVFR CIGS...upstream over IL. Some
clearing is noted over IA. Confidence is medium on whether this
clearing may arrive tonight. Forecast soundings and time height keep
lower level moisture in place across the TAF sites tonight and into
Saturday amid cold air advection and inversion aloft. Thus will keep
the MVFR cigs in the TAfs for now.

Another upper level wave is expected to drop out of Canada and merge
with a upper disturbance moving northeast within the flow aloft.
This will bring upper support and forcing to Central Indiana on
Saturday morning. At this time the HRRR suggest a wave of light
showers pushing across the TAF sites near 18Z. For now, have used
VCSH mention.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Puma