920
FXUS63 KIND 050150
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
850 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near daily rain and occasional thunderstorm chances this week into
  early next, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall likely
  through Saturday, will produce widespread minor to moderate flooding
  across central Indiana creeks and rivers.

- A few strong to severe storms possible into tonight generally
  south of I-70.

- Much warmer late week into next week, with near record warmth
  likely Friday and potentially early next week as well.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Convection that was aided by an MCV will continue to diminish
and shift eastward and out of central Indiana by 02Z. Recent cell
training and heavy rainfall (amounts around 1.5 in/hr) has lead to
localized flood/flash flood threat in SE portions of central Indiana
that will last a few hours beyond the end of the rainfall.

In the wake of the MCV, ACARs soundings show subsidence layers
centered between 650 and 800 mb which have become well established
over western Indiana back towards St. Louis. Although a few
convective showers have recently developed along the IN/IL border,
these are not expected to intensify to thunderstorms owing to the 50-
100 j/kg of mucinh shown on recent mesoanalysis and a result of the
subsident layers. Patchy fog has recently developed over far western
IN in this region of subsidence aloft. Visibilities have not yet
fallen to less than 1/2 mile, but have done so in IL recently. We
will continue to monitor trends and may issue a Dense Fog Advisory
before 10 PM if dense fog conditions develop and increase.

Convection over MO which has developed in the last few hours will
continue to increase in coverage as it moves towards central Indiana
owing to increasing deep layer moisture convergence along the
leading edge of intensifying 850 mb jet, as well as DCVA
ahead of plains shortwave trough. A renewed threat for heavy
rainfall/minor flooding will develop after 05Z as high PWATS (1.2
to 1.3 inch per soundings) combine with convection focusing along
and just north of stationary front over southern portions of
central Indiana. The threat for flash flooding may increase yet
again late tonight, if sustained cell training can become focused
over the same areas that received heavy rainfall this evening,
namely along the U.S 50 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 323 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Tonight through Thursday....

Surface frontal boundary extends along the Ohio River valley of
southern Indiana just south of central Indiana. A weak-moderately
unstable airmass exists across the region, with elevated MUCAPE
values on the order of 500-1000 J/KG north of the front. A well
defined MCV in the vicinity of STL has supported recent convective
line development over the MS valley of Southern IL. This activity
is expected to be maintained and strengthened as it rides along
and just north of the surface frontal boundary into southern
portions of central Indiana late this afternoon/early evening.
With 30-40 kts of deep layer shear, updraft rotation will be
sufficient for organized multicells and weak supercell structures.
Mid level lapse rates are not overly steep (6.5-7 C/km) but
sufficient to enhance the potential for marginally severe hail
production. There is an outside chance of an isolated damaging
wind gusts/tornado along the frontal boundary in far southern
counties of central Indiana if sufficient surface based buoyancy
can be realized.

An increasing 850mb jet impinging on stationary front over the
central Plains/Ozarks along with an approaching mid level shortwave
trough will lead to regeneration and increase in a large area of
convection west of central Indiana later this evening moving into
central Indiana overnight.

Recent rainfall of 2-4 inches has lead to fairly saturated grounds
and rivers to rise into minor to moderate flooding generally along
and south of I-70. Expectation is for additional 1-3 inches of
rainfall to occur with these areas as multiple rounds of convection
move through Thursday morning. Therefore a Flood watch has been
issued through noon Thursday with the potential for minor low lying
flooding and continued increase in river/creek flooding.

The mid level shortwave is expected to pass through central Indiana
tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance for scattered TS development
prior to frontal/shortwave trough passage.

Thursday Night and Friday...

The frontal boundary is expected to become stationary along the Ohio
River valley Thursday night before lifting back northward as a warm
front on Friday. Areas of fog and or showers will be possible late
Thursday night early Friday prior to the warm frontal passage.
However, TS coverage appears negligible with building mid level
heights in the wake of the shortwave trough. As 850mb temps rise to
+13-14C Friday with moderate SW low level flow aiding in mixing,
expect temps to rise well into the 70s, with current record temps in
jeopardy (Indy`s record is 75 in 1973).

Friday night...

A fairly strong cold front will push east through the plains Friday
evening before reaching the MS valley by 12Z Saturday. A fairly long
and fast line of thunderstorms is expected ahead of this front,
possible reaching the border of Indiana by 12Z Saturday. A marginal
risk for severe weather seems more than appropriate considering the
very warm/moist airmass and strong deep layer shear vectors in
place.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 323 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

The wet pattern will dry out slightly on Saturday through
Wednesday.

Saturday...

Models suggest a moderate trough over the the plains on Saturday
morning within the upper levels. This feature will progress toward
Indiana through the day. Within the lower levels, Indiana will start
the day within the warm sector with a cold front to west poised to
push across the state. Showers and Storm chances will be needed
given the expected passage of the cold front as ample moisture and
forcing will be available. Forecast soundings show pwats over 1
inch, thus confidence is high for rain.

Saturday Night through Monday...

Zonal flow aloft is expected during this time in the wake of the
departed upper trough on Saturday. The departed upper trough will
lead to subsidence building across the area on Sunday and into
Monday. Model response to this with a elongated area of high
pressure suggested to build from the southern plains. This system
will bring dry and mild weather through this period. Forecast
soundings through the period show a dry column. Southwest flow
developing by Monday and Tuesday with allow for a warmer air to
continue to arrive resulting in mild and warm spring like
temperatures.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Another cold front along with an area of low pressure is expected to
settle across the Central Indiana on Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. An upper trough is will be settling over the Rockies at
that time, and this will eject some forcing dynamics toward Indiana
as the front is present. Thus given these signals, pops will be
needed, with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 649 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR-LIFR ceilings through Thursday morning.

- Widespread IFR visibilities through Thursday morning.

- Widespread showers with thunderstorms ending from west this
  evening with more development late tonight.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon
  for KBMG/KIND.

Discussion:

Thunderstorm threat has ended for the time being at KHUF AND KLAF.
Thunderstorms will end within the hours at KIND/KBMG. Widespread
IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR vsby will continue overnight, although
there maybe a brief window for 1-2 hrs of VFR in the immediate wake
of the showers/TS this evening.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms currently developing over
the Ozarks will move back into the TAF sites between 05-08Z, with
little to no impact expected for the cargo ops at KIND. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish between 10-15Z Thursday morning.
A weak front will move across Indiana during the afternoon hours
with a chance for scattered TS to effect KIND/KBMG during the
afternoon hours. In additional ceilings are expected to improve to
MVFR during the early afternoon hours.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ043>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Crosbie