376
FXUS63 KIND 051739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Friday night with isolated
  thunder possible amid unseasonably mild conditions

- Seasonably chilly weather returns this weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

High clouds are gradually streaming overhead as a weak system
approaches from the northwest. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
through the day and into tonight, though the OVC layer may be quite
thin early on. A separate system departing to our northeast is
expected to bring a period of breezy southwesterly winds this
morning/afternoon. Some gusts 20-25kt are possible at times. Enough
sunshine should make it through the thin cirrus in conjunction with
the southwesterly flow to allow for a warm up. Highs topping out
around 50 are expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Quiet conditions will continue across central Indiana today. Upper
flow will become briefly quasi-zonal ahead of an upper wave. At the
surface, high pressure will be to the east while a weak cold front
drops into far northern Indiana.

Warm advection will occur through the lower levels of the
atmosphere. The southerly winds will also bring in low level
moisture. However, believe that during the day that there won`t be
enough moisture or lift to generate much in the way of low level
clouds. Mainly mid and high level clouds will move through.

Will go with partly cloudy skies today. The warm advection will
bring temperatures into the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.

Tonight, an upper wave will move into the upper Mississippi Valley,
while a surface low moves from Kansas City to near Chicago.
Southerly flow will continue across the area, and some weak lift
will occur in the lower levels. The result will be low clouds
developing across central Indiana.

Wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog/drizzle by late in the
night. Thanks to the southerly flow and increased clouds, lows will
be in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Moderation through unseasonably mild conditions to continue through
the mid-week as upper zonal upper pattern oversees warm-advective
trend amid often moderate to robust southwesterly breezes.
Precipitation-free conditions to also continue courtesy of overall
dry column through Wednesday night.  Although considerable
cloudiness expected to prevail much of Tuesday as open wave system
crossing Great Lakes boosts wind gusts to at least 20-25 mph...
bringing widespread 50s back into central Indiana.  The visually
nicest day of the week is scheduled for Wednesday when low to mid-
50s will be the rule with lighter breezes under ample sun.

Transition back to rather damp and at times rainy conditions on
Thursday as surface high pressure aligns over Atlantic coast and
combines with next area of low pressure deepening over central
Plains to establish southerly flow that will advect deep Gulf
moisture into the region as well as surface dewpoints into the 50s.
Surface low is most likely to track into the Great Lakes as the
workweek ends, as parent deep, broad and rather complex H500 trough
slowly trucks across the central US.  Local region`s proximity in
the system`s warm sector will allow periods of organized rain
showers and possibly isolated thunder.  So far low confidence in any
organized storms with overall positive tilt of upper wave, and
likely the better deep moisture departing east before better forcing
arrives from the west...although complex progression of various
vorts within the system will be watched with future updates.
Hopefully moderate to heavy rainfall totals will reach most of the
CWA before the tailing cold front crosses around the early weekend.

Temperatures progged to peak around 60F for the Thursday and Friday
timeframes.  The record high minimum at Indianapolis on January 9th
is 44F...49F is the current forecast low for the calendar day.
Westerly breezes amid a few flurries this weekend to restore near
normal temperatures by the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Impacts:

- Marginal LLWS tonight.

- MVFR conditions developing late tonight, possible IFR Tue morning.

- Drizzle with minor visibility reductions Tue morning.

- WSW wind gusts 20-25kt Tue.

Discussion:

High-level clouds are increasing ahead of an approaching system.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of it will promote a 35-45kt low-
level jet overnight. This may lead to a period of low-level wind
shear around 40kt generally between 04z-10z.

Additionally, low-level moisture advection is expected to increase
leading to MVFR stratus tonight. Ceilings may drop throughout the
night into Tuesday morning, potentially dipping into IFR at times.
Drizzle with minor reductions in visibility is also possible,
especially between 10z-14z.

Drizzle should end later Tuesday morning as the system departs.
Winds turn more westerly with increasing gustiness (up to 25kt).
Guidance is hinting at IFR/MVFR stratus lingering through a good
portion of the day Tuesday, which is more likely than not this time
of the year. We will retain MVFR ceilings through the end of the TAF
period for now.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Eckhoff