526
FXUS63 KIND 071102
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming partly cloudy with a low chance for showers this
  afternoon and tonight across northern Central Indiana.

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with showers and perhaps a
  thunderstorm Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- Additional chances for showers and a storm or two late in the
  weekend and again mid week, with temperatures remaining near
  to below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure centered
over KS, with a ridge axis stretching east across MO to IL and
Indiana. A cold front was draped across the deep south, resulting in
thunderstorms in its vicinity. Aloft, water vapor shows a broad
trough over Ontario into the Great Lakes and sagging into Indiana.
Subsidence was mainly in place across Indiana. GOES16 shows clear
skies across central Indiana with dew points mainly in the 30s.

Today and Tonight...

The strong area of high pressure to the west will push east and
slowly push across Central Indiana today and into the evening.
Forecast soundings show a dry column across the area this morning,
but hint at mid level saturation this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached. Furthermore, models show a weak upper
disturbance pushing across northern Indiana this afternoon. Thus
with these two features, clouds will increase this afternoon. HRRR
has been suggesting some light rainshowers this afternoon across the
northern parts of the forecast area. Will include low chances for
this from mid afternoon toward 00Z to account for this weak wave.
Westerly winds today will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in
the mid 60s.

Forecast soundings keep mid level cloudiness across the area tonight
while the lower levels remain dry. Little to no forcing appears
aloft within the NW flow, yet the HRRR continues to try to keep
some showers in play across the northern parts of the forecast area.
Thus may keep some very low confidence pops across the northern
parts of the forecast area, otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be
expected.

Friday and Friday Night...

Higher confidence for rain will be in play for Friday and Friday
Night. Models show the arrival of a stronger short wave within the
flow aloft on Friday afternoon into Friday Night. This will be
accompanied by the a warmer and more humid air mass in place across
Central Indiana. A cold front will be found to the west of Indiana
on Friday, allowing, warmer, southerly flow to push across Indiana
through the day. By afternoon, forecast soundings show a mostly
saturated column with pwats approaching 1 inch and some convection
will be possible. Severe threat appears limited as instability is
not strong. The 295K GFS Isentropic surface shows good lift with
specific humidities approaching 6 j/kg. Thus summing this up, Friday
may start off dry, but rain chances will increase as the day
progresses as moisture and forcing arrive by late afternoon and into
the evening. Look for highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

The previous cold front looks to stall across the area on Saturday,
while the cyclonic flow remains in place aloft. The best forcing
energy looks to exit on Saturday morning and forecast soundings
suggest mid and upper level subsidence as the day progresses. Still,
there appears some uncertainty with the overall timing of the
departure of the front and how much lower level moisture will remain
across the area. Thus will keep some pops in forecast, focused
mainly on the morning hours.

Sunday through Wednesday...

The only dry day during this time period looks to be Monday. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be needed in the forecast on
Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The upper flow during this time is suggested to remain rather
unchanged during this period, continuing northwest flow from central
Canada spilling into the Ohio Valley. This flow remain due to
persistent ridging over the western United States and a persistent
upper low over Quebec.

Several short waves are expected to pass across Indiana within this
flow. The first is looks to be on Sunday, as a cold front is
expected to be crossing the state on Saturday Night and exiting the
southeastern parts of the Indiana on Sunday. Subsidence and dry air
should arrive from the northwest as the day progresses, thus dry
weather will be expected by late in the day into the evening.

Monday looks to be the only dry day as a large, cool and dry high
pressure systems settled over Indiana from the upper midwest and
Canada. This will result in a dry and cool day with below normal
temperatures.

Two more upper short waves with in the NW flow aloft look to pass on
Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Tuesday/s system may be a bit
moisture starved as the preceding air mass looks to be quite dry,
however within the lower level a moderate warm front is suggested to
be pushing toward central Indiana and forecast soundings suggest
some mid level saturation as pwats climb through the day. Thus some
chances will be needed for Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.
Another subtle wave looks to pass on Wednesday and Central Indiana
will be in the warm sector with a surface low in place north, over
the Great Lakes. For the moment, forecast soundings suggest steep
lapse rates favorable for convection. A cold front also looks to be
approaching by late afternoon into the evening. Thus a warm day in
the 70s with chances for showers and storms is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Impacts:

- Low-VRF ceiling at KIND after 15Z Friday

Discussion:

VFR will prevail over central Indiana terminals into Friday morning.
High cloud crossing the region this morning...will eventually yield
to generally SCT/BKN mid cloud this afternoon through tonight.  A
few showers crossing northern areas later today-tonight may reduce
visibility briefly at KLAF but confidence in MVFR too low to include
in TAF.  Lower ceilings to arrive late Friday morning over KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Puma