402
FXUS63 KIND 121415
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
915 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions, slow moderation amid above normal readings
  through midday Saturday

- Rain showers likely south of I-74 corridor within late Saturday to
  Sunday morning...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches possible in this area

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures
 continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure continues to build southward within modest AVA. This
is leading to calming winds with most areas near or calm already.
There will likely be slight increase in winds later today (3-5kt) as
sensible heat fluxes increase beneath partly cloudy skies. Increased
cloud cover slightly for late this morning through the afternoon due
to mid level cloud cover increases within quasi-zonal flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across central
Indiana through tonight.

Some weakening upper energy will produce isentropic lift in the mid
levels and bring mid level clouds to the area today. Will go with
mostly cloudy skies for the bulk of the day. The lower levels of the
atmosphere will remain dry, and the lift aloft isn`t strong, so do
not expect any precipitation.

Temperatures have recently been running above blended guidance.
However, today will have the plentiful mid level cloudiness, which
should keep readings in check. Will stay close to guidance for highs
today. However, if clouds are fewer than expected, then highs may
have to be raised again.

As the upper wave exits tonight, cloud cover will decrease some.
Winds will remain light thanks to the surface high. These conditions
will allow temperatures to be cooler in areas where clouds decrease.
Will go near or a little below guidance for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Long term across central Indiana to feature an overall slow and
steady moderation from slightly above normal readings Friday to
anomalously mild temperatures by next Wednesday...amid mainly dry
conditions that will include a good chance of perhaps widespread
rain showers Saturday night into Sunday.

The workweek will end with the mid-level weakness embedded in quiet
northwest flow quickly departing to the southern Appalachians...
replaced by increasing southerly breezes under clearing skies, which
will allow the seasonably chilly morning to rebound about 25 degrees
to upper 40s/low 50s for most locations.  Saturday to be equally
pleasant with lighter winds under thickening clouds guiding above
normal readings into the 50s for most spots...with a few showers
possibly arriving late for far southwestern counties.

Southern stream cut-off system to then bring scattered to widespread
rain showers to most of the region, probably during an 18-hour
window within the Saturday night-Sunday timeframe.  High confidence
in rain only precip-type, no thunder, and overall greater rainfall
south...moderate confidence in 0.50-0.75 inches of precipitation
for most far-southern zones and at least 0.10 inches precipitation
for other southern/central areas...and low confidence in exact
rainfall amounts for any zone, as well as potential flooding from
run-off and/or ice jams. Hopefully, antecedent snow pack down to 1
to 3 inches or less and temperatures ranging from roughly 25F to
50F today through Saturday...will allow the remaining snow pack
and even a small/top portion of stagnant ground frost to
melt...which should help partially mitigate run-off from potential
0.25-0.75 inches of rain. Although isolated minor flooding is
still on the table, especially given ice jam potential amid the
moderating pattern.

Second half of the long term period will bring the zonal northern
portion of a strengthening H500 ridge across the Midwest, raising
the 1000-500 mb thickness above 550 dm by Tuesday.  Next weather
system will track from near Wyoming into the southern Great Lakes
through the middle of next week...bringing increasing southerly
winds ahead of it, at times considerable cloudiness, dewpoints
nearing 50 degrees, and temperatures completing their slow and
steady moderation Wednesday - most likely into the low 60s.  Record
high minimum temperatures through the third week of February vary
widely...yet the easiest to reach is next Wednesday`s (46F, 1981),
with latest forecast to tie this value.  Organized rainfall is
unlikely with the mid-week system, but widely scattered rain showers
are possible, especially over northern portions of the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Impacts: None

Discussion:

Surface high pressure aligned from the northern Great Lakes to the
Ohio Valley this morning, will drift east during the TAF period...
maintaining VFR conditions over central Indiana terminals through
Friday morning.  A couple small mid-level weaknesses will provide
ceilings generally above 10,000 feet...through much of today, and
again at times tonight, mainly after midnight.

Often light/variable winds will most likely be from west to WNW
headings this afternoon...with southerly flow Friday morning
increasing to 7KT by 18Z at KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM