385
FXUS63 KIND 270200
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances into tonight with additional convection
  possible on Wednesday

- Localized flash flooding possible tonight through Wednesday

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A few small adjustments made to forecast with rain showers still
expected to increase in coverage from south to north tonight, with
the potential for small-scale convective downpours and possibly non-
severe thunderstorms after 07Z, mainly along and just south of the I-
70 corridor from Morgan County and points east.  Latest CAMs
indicating potential for as much as 2.00-3.00 inches in under 3
hours under lone most-intense cells, but confidence is too low in
even widely scattered extreme rainfall...so have held off on any
Flood Watch.

Otherwise thickening stratus ceiling will continue to fall, holding
damp conditions amid light breezes.  Weakness responsible for rain
over the next 12-18 hours may fail to reach far northwestern corner
of the CWA through 12Z, with perhaps only sprinkles around Lafayette
through dawn.  Overnight lows to mirror dewpoints, ranging from low
60s along the Upper Wabash to mid-60s in Marion County and southern
zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

A challenging forecast lies ahead as a mid level vort max pushes
northward, impinging on a broad area of high pressure. This is
leading to a dichotomy of weather conditions across the forecast
area, with slightly warmer and dry surface conditions over far N/NW
central Indiana, and the rest of central Indiana slightly cooler and
elevated dew points. Clouds will remain over most of the area, with
a few pockets of sunshine possible over that same N/NW portion of
the area.

Current radar imagery depicts rain pushing northward with our
southern tier of counties currently beneath light rain. This area of
rain will mix out some as it lifts northward and interacts with the
previously mentioned high pressure. Still period of light rain will
be possible all the way up to the I-70 corridor through the early
evening.

After 02Z, mid level lapse rates will begin to cool and broad lift
will continue to push northward, eventually leading to a narrow zone
of weak elevated instability. This zone is expected to be about 50-
100mi wide and produce consistent convective cells. Models still
vary on where this zone of convection will be located, ranging from
just north of the I-70 corridor a line from Bloomington to Seymour.
Those within this zone will likely see a broad inches of rain, with
pockets of 2 inches depending on how transient this line progresses.

As cold pools develop some of the available energy for updrafts will
diminish leading to a brief period of lower PoPs tomorrow morning.
PoPs and thunder chances will increase again in the late morning to
early afternoon S/E of Indianapolis, with rain and thunder pushing
east with time.

Thursday onward:

Look for rain chances to quickly diminish as a disturbance moves out
of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Long range guidance
depicts an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging
centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the
north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week
through early next week. The stagnant mundane weather pattern
could continue beyond day 7. Expect another warm day Thursday in
the low 80s with temperatures then holding nearly steady in the
mid to upper 70s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings advance north tonight, MVFR to I-70 corridor by 06Z,
  and IFR/worse likely at KHUF/KBMG 10Z to late morning Wednesday
- -SHRA likely by 03Z at KBMG...with scattered/numerous -SHRA at all
  all terminals (excepting KLAF) during 06Z-20Z Wednesday
- MVFR visibility at times 07Z-14Z for all TAF sites, except KLAF

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings already at KBMG...will slowly advance northward, with
VFR conditions at KIND/KHUF early this evening falling to MVFR at
KIND/KHUF by 06Z.  Supporting weak disturbance will slowly advance
northward into central Indiana tonight-Wednesday...bringing an area
of numerous -SHRA near KIND/KHUF/KBMG later tonight through at least
midday Wednesday.

Between areas of organized -RA, associated low stratus will likely
fall to IFR/worse at KBMG/KHUF, and possibly at KIND, after 06Z
tonight.  Ceilings progged to be worst 07Z-16Z, although VFR should
continue at KLAF.  MVFR elsewhere to scatter out Wednesday afternoon.

Visibility under isolated steadier SHRA, which may be briefly heavy
and/or include TSRA to fall to MVFR within 07Z-13Z.  Can not rule
out brief IFR but confidence too low to include in any TAF.
Ceilings will drive flight rule deterioration.  Rain showers to
taper off quickly from NW to SE late Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Updike/Melo