706
FXUS63 KIND 210141
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
941 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend begins on Tuesday, with above normal temperatures
  continuing into the weekend

- Rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Friday into
  the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Skies have been mostly clear this evening across central Indiana.
However satellite imagery shows the beginning stages of the an
increasing trend of high clouds moving in from northern Indiana.
Temps as of 9 PM EDT have fallen quickly in the preceding 1-2 hrs
owing to generally light SE winds 6 mph or less, along with the
mostly clear skies and low dewpoints in the 25-35F range. Have
updated the forecast to account for the colder start to the
overnight period. Expect most areas to see low temperatures prior
to 06Z. Afterwards, steadily increasing high clouds combined with
increasing S-SE winds up to 8-12 mph should bring temps up
several degrees from the lows by sunrise.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

High pressure today is providing central Indiana with predominately
clear skies aside from some passing occasional cirrus. As the high
pushes eastward, some cumulus clouds may form later in the day.
The clear skies and shift to more southerly winds through the day
will help aid highs in the mid 50s to low 60s today. Increased
winds will set up aloft from tonight through the day tomorrow due
to increased pressure gradients forming between the exiting high
and an approaching surface low. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are
expected to mix down tomorrow, with highest gusts in the
afternoon.

The approaching surface low pressure system could bring rain and
thunderstorm chances for Tuesday late evening into the day
Wednesday. Best PoPs will be across the north, where a larger
systems boundary will be draped across. Less than a quarter inch of
rain is likely with this system as there won`t be much moisture to
work with. Behind it, a combination of upper ridging and surface
high over the Tennessee Valley will prompt dry weather from late
Wednesday to late Thursday at least.

There will be a few days of potential fire concern this week due
largely to low relative humidities. Today will see min RH of 25-30%
but luckily winds are light today. Tuesday could see min RH values
near 30% with higher gusts ongoing as previously mentioned. Thursday
will see values near 40% and is also expected to see gusts of around
25 mph. Be cautious if working with any open flames.

Deep upper troughing across western portions of the United States
will eject multiple impulses towards the region late this week
through early next week. The greatest precipitation chances are
still on Friday when a low pressure system and associated cold front
push into the area. Severe weather is not expected at this time due
to limited instability and deep layer wind shear, but a few strong
storms cannot be ruled out. Rain chances range from 50 to 80
percent.

For Friday and beyond, the cold front is expected to stall near
central Indiana by Saturday morning keeping low chances for rain or
storms in the forecast through the weekend. The primary forcing by
the weekend would likely be driven by mesoscale factors or wherever
the diffuse front ends up so confidence is low. Slightly higher rain
chances return towards early next week when long range guidance
suggest another developing low pressure system could move towards
the region. Specific details remain highly uncertain as there is a
large spread in model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain
slightly above normal during the period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS at all terminals late tonight through mid morning tomorrow
- SW Wind gusts 25-30 kt tomorrow midday to afternoon
- Showers and possible isolated thunderstorms along with LLWS during
  tomorrow nights KIND cargo ops.

Discussion:

Quiet evening with light and variable winds gradually increasing and
becoming S-SE 5-8 kts overnight. As an area of low pressure lifts NE
from the Central Plains into the upper MS valley overnight an
increasing gradient between this feature and high pressure over the
Carolinas will support increasing winds. Initially these winds will
be aloft, with speeds between 35-40 kts centered around 020 after
08Z. This will favor LLWS conditions late tonight through mid
morning tomorrow (13-14Z). Once the low level inversion "breaks"
winds will begin to increase quickly at the surface. Wind gusts out
of the SW (220-230 degrees) will average 25-30 kts at the terminals
tomorrow afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the lower Great Lakes late tomorrow afternoon.
This activity is expected to approach KLAF around 00Z, so carrying
VCSH for now. Further south, this activity will reach KIND later in
the evening. At present the timing favors it reaching KIND during
the cargo ops period (03-06Z). In addition to the potential for
brief IFR vis in -TSRA, there also will be another round of LLWS as
winds around 020 will average around 45 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...KF/Melo