886
FXUS63 KIND 070759
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70

- A line of storms producing strong wind gusts will move across
  central Indiana this morning followed by showers into the afternoon

- Additional rainfall amounts will remain under an inch but may
  exacerbate or prolong ongoing flooding

- Well above normal temperatures into next week

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Unseasonably warm early morning with skies mainly clear at the
moment along with breezy S/SW winds. At 07Z...temperatures remain in
the mid and upper 60s with convection still to our west over western
Illinois back into Missouri.

That convection has surged out ahead of a cold front that extends
from the upper Midwest southwest into the southern Plains early this
morning. Storms will continue to press east into the region towards
daybreak with a conditional but non-zero threat for severe storms
this morning followed by periodic showers for much of the rest of
the day until the cold front can cross the forecast area late this
afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build in tonight with
drier air gradually advecting into the region and finally bringing a
respite to the wet and unsettled conditions into early next week.

The primary focus through the morning is on the approaching
convection and the conditional severe risk in play. The timing of
the arrival of the convection will likely work in our favor across
central Indiana...impacting the forecast area during a typically
unfavorable time for greater instability and mitigating a more
widespread concern for severe weather. Storms have continued to
weaken over the last few hours with the loss of more robust
instability with the strongest storms currently across southern
Missouri. Extrapolation brings the convection to the Wabash Valley
between 10 and 11Z then shifting east across the area throughout the
morning.

With that being said...trends do support a surge of slightly deeper
moisture along a narrow axis into the western forecast area shortly
before daybreak. That would lead to a nudge up in CAPE values and
with ample shear and SRH values present within the boundary layer...
it is not out of the question that we see a subtle uptick in
convection as it moves into the forecast area. In addition...the
deeper moisture plume will also aid in weakening a lingering shallow
inversion. With the low level jet over the area and 50kt flow as low
as 2500ft AGL...there will be a narrow window along the leading edge
of the convection for storms to generate stronger wind gusts in
excess of 50mph. The winds will be the primary concern from the
storms with largely unidirectional flow present through the column.
Brief heavy rainfall will also accompany the storms and while overall
rainfall amounts today should remain under an inch in most
locations...any additional rainfall will exacerbate or prolong
ongoing flooding.

Convection will press east across the forecast area and should move
out of the forecast area by midday. Showers will linger behind the
initial convective line...ending from northwest to southeast through
the first part of the afternoon. A narrow line of showers will
accompany the trailing cold front which will swing across the
forecast area late this afternoon into the early evening. Rain
should be out of the area by mid to late evening with drier air
expanding into the region above a sharp boundary layer inversion
which will hold for most if not all of tonight. This will keep a
broad area of stratus over the forecast area tonight.

Winds will be gusty through this evening peaking at 25 to 30mph at
times this afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Southwest
flow will veer to W/NW in wake of the frontal passage late today.

Temps...expect another mild day with temperatures rising slightly
from current readings through early afternoon then falling late day
with the frontal passage. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s
in the northern Wabash Valley to the mid 40s across southeast
portions of central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

A break from rain chances can be expected to last through Monday
evening as a broad surface high moves through the region in the wake
of the departing front, but rain chances will return as early as
late Monday night and continue through mid week as the northern
stream and a southwestern CONUS cutoff low combine to promote
moisture transport back into the region along and ahead of a lengthy
frontal zone stretching from a strong surface low over the eastern
Canadian provinces back to an area of lee cyclogenesis over the high
Plains.

Guidance has trended back toward more phasing of the southwestern
cutoff low and the prevailing westerlies, which may enhance heavy
rainfall potential, primarily late Tuesday into Wednesday as the
front moves through.

Even with a short break from rain, antecedent conditions between the
ongoing river flooding and waterlogged ground will mean that it will
not take much in the way of heavy rainfall rates to produce renewed
areal and perhaps flash flooding, as well as potentially prolonging
if not exacerbating the river flooding situation, so this will need
close monitoring as the situation evolves over the weekend into next
week.

Will have to keep an eye on potential for at least a marginal severe
threat per experimental ML/AI severe guidance, though the hydrologic
concerns would be the more pressing of the two at this point,
obviously, and any severe threat would be supported by details that
are conditional and extremely unclear at this point.

The quasizonal flow along with broad warm advection ahead of the mid
week front will keep temperatures well above normal throughout much
of the coming week, with near record highs again not completely out
of the question Monday and Tuesday. A bit of a cool down appears
possible post front late in the period into next weekend and perhaps
beyond, though uncertainty is high on just how long it lasts - but
latest 8-14 day outlook does show a tendency toward below normal
temperatures for the third week of the month. Warmer NBM forecasts
near climatology late in the long term will likely end up falling
with time if model trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1158 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 25 to 30kt at times through the forecast period,
  with highest gusts likely Saturday afternoon

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive after 10Z, impacting the
  terminals with a stronger line of storms impacting the terminals
  near and just after daybreak

- Cold front arrives Saturday evening with a wind shift to WNW.

- MVFR ceilings possible for much of the day Saturday into Saturday
  night

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue into the predawn hours with S/SW winds
at 10-15kts. Convection across the Missouri Valley late this evening
will expand into the state prior to daybreak...impacting the
terminals after 10Z. At the leading edge will be a line of stronger
storms that will likely bring brief restrictions and perhaps gustier
winds as it passes near and just after daybreak. Behind the
storms...showers will continue through midday before moving off to
the east. MVFR ceilings will become prevalent throughout the morning
but should scatter some by the afternoon as slightly drier air
advects in behind the area of rain. Peak wind gusts to around 25kts
will develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon.

The cold front will lag back and not pass through the region until
late day Saturday with the potential for additional showers along
the boundary. Winds will veer to W/NW with the passage of the front
with post-frontal MVFR stratus settling back in as well.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan