142
FXUS63 KIND 100736
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
336 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered pre-dawn showers will include a stray rumble of
  thunder south/west of Bloomington

- Dry and partly to mostly clear today-Tuesday with 40s overnight and
  afternoons nearing 70F

- Showers and a few t-storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
  especially north

- Stronger moderation with a few showers late this week

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A couple areas of convective showers will continue to cross central
Indiana through the pre-dawn hours amid a smaller fetch of marginal
Gulf moisture aligned west to east and steadily sinking
southeastward within parent anafrontal position behind recently-
passed weak cool front.  Scattered light to locally moderate rain
will steadily progress east across the northern tier east of
Lafayette...while a better organized yet weak thunderstorm/stronger
showers track east from southeastern central Illinois into our CWA`s
southwestern zones.

Current cell crossing northern Knox/Daviess Counties could bring
very brief ponding of low-lying areas and perhaps a half inch of
rainfall.  Cannot rule out very small hail given recent public
report from earlier cell that rolled trough Hancock County around
midnight. No severe weather is expected through the near or short
term periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Dry conditions to return over central Indiana by daybreak as a few
overnight showers yield to Canadian high pressure arriving on light
northerly winds.  This larger air mass will slowly cross the Great
Lakes/Midwest through the early week, bringing another cooler trend
of cool overnights and slightly below normal afternoon readings to
the Hoosier State.  Expect April-like conditions to prevail both
today and Monday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and light cold-
advective breezes promoting highs in the mid-60s to around 70F.
Despite light overnight winds, any frost potential should be
thwarted by low dewpoints limiting condensation, and temperatures no
lower than the low to mid-40s.

Amid steady northwest flow aloft, upper riding on Tuesday and
strengthening south-southwesterly breezes to return seasonably warm
conditions with 70s and dewpoints climbing to 50F by late day.
Broadening short wave pushing through the Great Lakes will bring a
better chance for organized convective showers around the Tuesday
night timeframe along with overall isolated thunder.  Mediocre
duration of better precipitable water and better forcing staying
north should limit any non-zero severe threat, with light rainfall
most likely northeast of Indianapolis.

Remainder of the forecast period to feature an upper ridge building
over the western US...across the Plains and into the Midwest as a
generally zonal flow aloft.  Next round of northern high pressure to
hold mainly near-normal temperatures and rain-free conditions
through the remainder of the mid-week...before possibly more
pronounced moderation towards the weekend which would include
chances for at least widely scattered showers to end the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Impacts:

- VCSH possible overnight, especially near KHUF
- Weak boundary to pass KBMG around 06Z-07Z, shifting winds to NNE

Discussion:

VFR conditions to prevail near central Indiana terminals through
Sunday night.  Anafrontal mid cloud amid passing weak cold frontal
zone will be SCT to mainly BKN through dawn...with embedded VCSH
possible, mainly near KHUF and south through 10Z.  Light NNE winds
will be the rule after the boundary passes KBMG by 07Z.

Flow to back slightly to NNW after daybreak, with modest increases
in sustained winds to 5-10KT through midday and afternoon hours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...AGM