658
FXUS63 KIND 101747
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
147 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain arriving late day into tonight as tropical remnants
  move into the Ohio Valley with a likely sharp cutoff in rainfall
  on the western edge

- Rain ends early Sunday with clouds gradually decreasing into the
  afternoon

- Near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday

- Rain and storms possible late Tuesday through Thursday

- Coolest air of the season so far next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This Evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will lift up the western side of
the Appalachians through Sunday with light showers overspreading
most of the forecast area later today through early Sunday morning.
Upper level ridging will build in immediately as the tropical
remnants depart...setting the stage for near record breaking warmth
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will return late Tuesday into
Thursday with the coolest air of the season so far to follow next
weekend.

Rest of This Afternoon through Sunday Night

Mid and high level clouds associated with Isaias continue to expand
across the region early this afternoon with the leading edge of
light rain now into southern Indiana. Temperatures early this
afternoon were largely in the 70s.

The primary focus in the near term remains on the remnants of Isaias
and impacts to the area. Trends continue to shift the storm track a
bit further to the east resulting in lower rainfall amounts for
central Indiana with growing confidence that much of the northwest
half may see trace amounts or nothing at best.

Drier air is already being ingested into the weakening system with
the rain shield approaching from the south gradually diminishing in
coverage and intensity. By far the greater concern for heavy
rainfall will reside in the central Appalachians where a persistent
easterly flow in the lower levels will support upslope flow and
enhanced rainfall rates coinciding with the deeper moisture plume.
Across the Ohio Valley...rainfall will be reliant on the remnant
upper low as it pivots to the northeast tonight. The best chance for
widespread light rain will come this evening into the early
overnight and focus across the southeast half of the forecast area
as an increase in 850mb flow pivots across eastern Kentucky into
West Virginia and southern Ohio. An attendant band of convergence
will promote more widespread rainfall but with the lack of deeper
moisture...amounts will largely remain in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch
range along and east of I-69 dropping to nothing in the northern
Wabash Valley. Will also pull any mention of thunder for tonight
with virtually no instability available.

The passage of the 850mb jet to the southeast this evening will also
aid in a period with gusts to 20-25mph focused again primarily
across the southeast half of the forecast area. Winds will back and
decrease overnight with any lingering rain ending shortly after
daybreak Sunday. Lower stratus will develop late tonight and persist
through Sunday morning as model soundings show moisture within the
boundary layer trapped beneath an inversion. The trend will be for a
gradual mixing out of the stratus from the west into the afternoon
with much drier air advecting into the region as what is left of
Isaias moves away to the east.

Temps...clouds tonight will keep much of the area in the upper 50s.
Low level thermals support highs Sunday in the low 70s over eastern
counties to near 80 in the Wabash Valley.

Monday Through Saturday

Broad upper level ridging will quickly reestablish across the region
by Monday with stronger southwesterly flow developing between a
frontal boundary over the upper Midwest and high pressure along the
Gulf coast. Strong warm advection will commence and result in well
above normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday across the region.
Highs may flirt with 90 degrees in the Wabash Valley on Monday and
Tuesday. For KIND...record highs of 86 for both Monday and Tuesday
will be approached. The frontal boundary over the Great Lakes will
drift south towards the area Tuesday afternoon with the potential
for isolated convection increasing in coverage Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the front shifts through the forecast area and
eventually stalls south of the Ohio River.

An increasingly amplified flow aloft driven by a deep upper low over
the Rockies will flatten the ridge over the southeast states while
initiating a significant pattern change for the region by late week
into next weekend. The aforementioned boundary will remain in a
quasi-stationary state just south of the forecast area Wednesday
before pulling back north in response to a surface low ejecting out
of the Rockies and upper jet phasing. Rain with embedded
thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the Ohio Valley as a
result Wednesday night into Thursday before a stronger cold front
sweeps across the region late week.

In the wake of the frontal passage...a broad upper trough will
settle across much of the eastern half of the country as a much
cooler airmass will overspread the region with strong cold advection
in place. Highs primarily in the 60s on Friday may struggle to get
to get out of the 50s over the northeast half of the forecast area
next weekend. Confidence continues to grow in the first frost of the
Fall for much of the area next Saturday and Sunday nights as lows
fall into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Impacts:

- Easterly wind gusts to 20kt at KBMG and KIND this evening
- Light rain developing late day into tonight with best chances
  between 00Z and 06Z
- Ceilings falling to IFR/low MVFR late tonight into Sunday morning

Discussion:

Clouds continue to thicken as the remnants of Isaias lifts north.
Light rain will gradually lift north to encompass all but KLAF by
early this evening then continue into the first half of the
overnight before pivoting east of the terminals prior to daybreak
Sunday.

The bigger impact to aviators will initially be easterly wind gusts
to around 20kts at KBMG and KIND for several hours this evening...
and then IFR ceilings developing in the predawn hours and lingering
into Sunday morning. Low clouds will mix out from the west on Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan