713
FXUS63 KIND 281057
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
557 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and dry through the early overnight tonight, with wind
  chills in the teens this morning and again tonight

- WINTER STORM WATCH Saturday through early Sunday with snow
  impacting travel Saturday

- Additional snow chances Monday-Monday night

- Wind chills in the teens at night through most of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cold and dry conditions can be expected across central Indiana
today.

High pressure moving into the area from the west today will shift to
the east any lake effect clouds that are in the eastern forecast
area. Most of the high clouds from the approaching storm will remain
west of the area during the day, so there will be a good amount of
sunshine today.

Even with the sunshine, temperatures will only peak in the lower and
middle 30s.

Mid and high clouds will increase and thicken tonight as moisture
and lift move in ahead of the storm. The lower levels of the
atmosphere will remain quite dry for much of the night. Enough
forcing and moisture may arrive late tonight in the west to warrant
some low PoPs for light snow.

Low temperatures will likely occur in the first half or so of the
night, then readings will level off or rise a bit as clouds thicken.
Lows will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Saturday through Sunday...

*WINTER STORM WATCH NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW*

First significant winter storm of the season to impact central
Indiana and points west and north this weekend...with greatest
impacts from burst of moderate to potential heavy snow around the
mainly Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe.  Trend to mixing with
or changing to -RA Saturday night...although this brief window above
32F will be followed by icy conditions amid continued sub-freezing
readings Sunday through at least Tuesday night.

Lower heights across eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will couple
with strong confluence off southeastern Canadian coast to produce a
winter type synoptic pattern favorable for slow and steady surface
cyclogenesis across the central US.  Next short wave positioned over
western Kansas early Saturday will tilt negatively while progressing
to the Middle Mississippi Valley by early evening.  Corresponding
surface low pressure will track from northwestern Oklahoma to near
Chicago Saturday night.  Meanwhile, the amplified ridge of high
pressure that maintained unseasonably cold conditions through the
short term will slide east to the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Snow will continue to develop/expand from eastern Nebraska into the
Midwest through the end of the short term...with the onset of snow
for central Indiana`s westernmost counties around dawn Saturday.
Light to moderate snow will overspread the region from west to east
Saturday morning as the low crosses Missouri.  Snowfall rates to be
greatest within the 18Z-00Z period Saturday afternoon/evening...
which could, by early evening, bring moderate accumulations to
northwest zones and light accumulation to at least central and
northeast counties.  Higher confidence in a cold thermal profile
through 00Z promoting an all-snow type to start for most of the
region, although limited depth within the dendritic growth zone
should limit snow to liquid ratios to the 8-12 range for most
locations.  While the surface low will track to our northwest...its
occluded nature will delay the arrival of warmer air, with the
column generally under negative 3 degrees Celsius into Saturday
evening.

Confidence drops with the second portion of this winter storm, when
the warm advective frontogenetical band of precipitation pushes
north through the region...followed by what should be a mixture or
changeover to -RA with temperatures creeping above 32F for most
areas through the middle of the Saturday night period.  As the
forcing pushes north...at least for spots south of I-74, rain will
be the most likely precip-type while tapering to lighter intensity.
Lowest certainty in timing of any p-type changes along the Lafayette
to Muncie corridor, where readings may not exceed 32F Saturday
night, although all hydrometeors are expected to drop to light
intensity by 06Z Sunday morning.

A faster transition will be in order on the backside of the system
with the surface circulation progged to quickly cross southern
Michigan pre-dawn Sunday, promptly dragging the system`s cold front
across the CWA from west to east.  Westerly winds gusting to at
least 15-25 mph out of the next polar air mass quickly invading the
central US will promote sub-freezing temps to most locales by Sunday
morning.  Additional light precipitation through perhaps midday
Sunday will transition back to all flurries/snow showers by early in
the day. While any additional accumulations are expected to be very
light...untreated surfaces will be slick.  Any snow will be sticking
around into the week with forecast highs mainly around 30F and
overnights well below freezing.

Continued unseasonably low wind chills are also worth noting...with
values ranging from up to 25-35 degrees Saturday...to teens Saturday
night...and wind chills most often around 15-25 degrees on Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...

Hemispheric upper low parked near Hudson Bay will maintain broad
trough of low heights over much of the lower 48 through the
remainder of the long term.  The polar high that builds in quickly
on Sunday will be more progressive, crossing the Midwest Monday...
ahead of the next short wave that should take a very similar track
to the weekend system...albeit much quicker per better connection to
flow around Hudson Bay.  Thermal profile featuring H850 temperatures
around negative 10 to negative 8 degrees Celsius over CWA...
northwest of open-wave low hustling across Kentucky...will promote a
period of light accumulating snowfall late Monday and Monday night.

Pattern to finally calm down thereafter as next polar ridge actually
comes out southern Plains, serving a more zonal upper flow into the
Midwest.  A clipper type system might bring yet another shot at
light snow around the Wednesday night timeframe...with the continued
unseasonably cold conditions the bigger story.  What may be a
lingering moderate snow pack for the region`s northern tier will
encourage overnights in the teens and discourage readings exceeding
30F for these zones.  Central/southern counties may receive a modest
moderation through midweek, although most hours will be below
freezing, with lows 10 degrees below normal...and wind chills
consistently into the teens at night.  The long term is expected to
end with yet another surge of polar high pressure plunging across
the Plains towards the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 557 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Impacts:

- Chance for snow very late in the period at KLAF
- Chance for snow at KIND after 12Z Saturday

Discussion:

Lake effect clouds should remain east of the sites early in the
period.

Sky cover will be minimal during the day, but then some mid
and high clouds will move in this evening. Winds of 10-15kt will
slowly diminish during the day.

Some light snow will be possible at KLAF late in the period, and for
the 30 hour KIND TAF, light snow will be possible after 12Z Saturday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50