807
FXUS63 KIND 020802
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and patchy drizzle expected at times through today

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue through mid week

- Rain chances return Tuesday night with a few rumbles of thunder possible

- Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler but still near to above normal temperatures are expected this
week along with an active stretch through mid week.

A couple of weak upper level waves moving through the area today
will continue to promote widespread low cloud cover and occasional
patchy drizzle owing to weak forcing and shallow low level moisture
remaining in place across the area. This will limit diurnal
temperature range with lows this morning likely no cooler than the
low to mid 50s, and highs this afternoon eking out a  modest
recovery into the low to mid 60s.

Some breaks in the cloud cover are expected later tonight into
Tuesday, which, along with good low level mixing and strong warm
advection ahead of a potent approaching mid week system will push
temperatures to their warmest of the forecast period on Tuesday,
with highs likely well back into the 70s. This reprieve will be
brief, however, with a cold front poised to push steadily through
the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing widespread
showers and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder, with
lingering precip likely to taper off late Wednesday. Forecast
profiles continue to depict very strong deep layer shear but
functionally zero upright instability, which will largely eliminate
any sort of organized severe threat, although there is always the
concern that a stronger shower could briefly mix down some stronger
gusts to the surface as a 50-60KT low level jet traverses the area
with the boundary. Outside of showers, synoptic winds will be fairly
strong ahead of and immediately behind the boundary Tuesday into
Tuesday night, with gusts of 35-40+ MPH possible.

Conditions will turn cooler again in the wake of the front, though
will still be near seasonal normals, with highs toward the end of
the period in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. A few periods will need at least slight chances for showers
as models depict the large scale upper low slowing and pivoting over
the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS late week into early next week,
and likely another upper level disturbance pinwheeling around or
being absorbed into the larger scale low, which may bring additional
showers and perhaps reinforcing shots of cool air to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions likely deteriorating for a time to IFR in drizzle
  and some patchy fog overnight into midday Monday

Discussion:

Low level moisture coupled with weak forcing from a departing upper
level wave will likely produce areas of drizzle at times through at
least midday Monday, which will produce deteriorating conditions,
with widespread MVFR likely dropping into the IFR category for
several hours just after daybreak through midday or early afternoon.
VFR appears set to return Monday evening. Visibility fluctuations
are likely in both patchy fog and the aforementioned drizzle, with
ceilings being the more consistent variable.

Winds will generally be between 140-170 degrees during the period
around 7-10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Nield