314
FXUS63 KIND 131903
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
303 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week

- Peak heat indices around 100 degrees each afternoon mid-late week

- Chances for showers and storms return Friday through the weekend,
  primarily during the afternoon and evening

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Model guidance depicts upper ridging and surface high pressure
remaining centered across the central CONUS. These features will
provide quiet weather during the first half of the forecast period.
Gradually increasing 850mb temperatures from the upper ridge
shifting overhead combined with deeper moisture returning northward
towards the middle of the week may lead to heat indices as high as
100 degrees or a few degrees above, primarily Wednesday or
Thursday afternoon.

Expect light and variable winds at times due to a weak pressure
gradient from the surface high. The weak flow leaves some
uncertainty on how high dewpoints will be towards the middle or end
of this week as moisture could be slow to return northward. How much
evapotranspiration occurs and the depth of diurnal mixing are other
factor to monitor in the coming days. Slightly higher dewpoints
could lead to portions of central Indiana approaching heat advisory
criteria. These trends will continue to be monitored closely.

Friday through the weekend...

Long range guidance is generally in good agreement regarding the
upper level pattern, but model solutions begin to diverge by this
point leading to lower confidence. Models generally depict the upper
level ridge breaking down while northwest flow and upper troughing
develops into the weekend. By Friday, deeper moisture will likely
already be in place with most models suggesting dewpoints in the low
70s. Daytime heating atop this humid airmass supports the potential
for scattered diurnal convection as large scale subsidence from the
aforementioned ridge weakens.

A shortwave passing through the region late Saturday through early
Sunday will provide another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, primarily Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
Low chances for convection linger into Sunday, but this will depend
on the strength of the system moving in late Saturday. A more
organized low pressure system like the GFS is suggesting would
filter in drier air behind the associated front resulting in more
tranquil weather. The ECMWF stalls the boundary just north of
central Indiana, keeping the warm-humid airmass in place along with
chances for convection. Exact details will remain uncertain until
models become better aligned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with northeasterly
winds of 8-12kts this afternoon. There could be a few gusts up to
19kts, but this should remain infrequent enough to not warrant a
mention in the TAF at this time. Skies will be mostly clear
through the period with diurnally driven cu around 050 possible,
mainly near BMG. Winds may become light and variable or calm at
times tonight into Tuesday for some sites as surface high pressure
moves overhead.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo