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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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314 FXUS63 KIND 011904 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 304 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet pattern through the week and into the weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall and renewed flooding along area waterways - Wind Advisory for Thursday Afternoon for Central and North Central Indiana where southerly winds may gust to 45 to 50 mph. - Warm with highs near 80 Thursday, then a few strong to potentially severe storms during the evening. Storms may produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. - Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potentially for lows in the low to mid 30s Monday morning. Frost and freeze conditions possible. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 An active short term period is in the forecast with numerous rounds of showers and storms through portions of the state, windy conditions, and large temperature swings. This Evening and Tonight... A frontal boundary remains draped across the state today leading to numerous showers and a few storms ongoing this afternoon. The front stretches from near Sullivan to Greensburg with temperatures in the 70s to the south and upper 40s to the north. Relatively weak elevated instability north of the boundary will put a cap on embedded thunder chances this afternoon and evening, though modest surface based instability has develop south of the front supporting thunderstorm development. While light rain showers persists along and north of the I-70 corridor this evening, focus shifts to the thunderstorms developing in South Central Indiana. Radar imagery shows thunderstorms developing right along and south of the front, along a sharp temperature and instability gradient. Effective shear of 25-30 kts, surface dew points in the 60s, and just enough skinny cape depicted on forecast soundings shows an environment conducive for multicell clusters of storms capable of producing lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Better dynamics remain further south toward the Ohio River and KY; however would not be surprised to see an isolated strong to severe storm this afternoon and evening from Martin County to Jennings County. The rest of Central Indiana should escape the severe weather threat for now. Another concern with these storms will be at least a minor flood threat as flow is largely parallel to the boundary, which could produce areas of training storms. For tonight, the area reemerges into the open warm sector with the warm front pushing rapidly northward in response to a strong surface low and upper level wave moving northeastward out of the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes. CAMs are showing the possibility of widely scattered storms overnight tonight as the boundary surges back northward as a warm front and the low level jet strengthens overhead. Forecast soundings do support the threat for elevated thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, and small hail. The wind threat should be fairly marginal in this set up with a strong low level inversion in place. Best chance for storms looks to be in the 10pm to 5am timeframe for Central Indiana; however confidence is lower on how widespread convection will be. Thursday... Thursday will again be quite windy, with PBL mixing and steep low level lapse rates likely able to mix down frequent gusts of 35-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible. While widespread clouds within the warm sector may inhibit boundary strong layer heating, strong warm air advection should steepen low level lapse rates enough for good mixing into the low level jet aloft. Short term models have all been in agreement with showing deep mixing Thursday afternoon leading to wind gusts over 45 mph mixing down to the surface; therefore issued a wind advisory from 11am to 7pm for portions of Central and North Central Indiana. In addition to windy conditions, expect highs approaching 80 degrees once again, with any area seeing sunshine likely warming into the lower 80s. The shower and thunderstorm threat will ramp back up again on Thursday evening into Thursday night as one or more rounds of prefrontal convection associated with the aforementioned system move through the region. A deamplifying negatively tilted trough and associated weakening surface low pushes into the Great Lakes tomorrow. While the best forcing for ascent will be further northwest toward Chicago and the track of the overall system, enough forcing should be present across Indiana to support some convective development. Deep layer shear will remain plentiful, and low level shear will be substantial as well owing to strong low level flow and some veering in the warm advection regime. The degree of destabilization is in question giving the threat a somewhat conditional nature, but even modest instability in such a flow environment would pose at least a decent wind threat with minimal trouble mixing down 50+KT flow within a few thousand feet of the surface, as well as concern for a tornado or two. Greatest threat for severe storms will be across Northwest portions of Central Indiana, where a better instability, shear, and helicity will be present to support organized severe storms and supercells. Forecast soundings for Thursday evening show a fairly saturated column with "skinny" CAPE, generally under 1000 J/kg. Any sunshine tomorrow may significantly increase lapse rates and instability leading to a more conducive environment locally for severe weather. But overall, best dynamics will be northwest of the region. This set up still supports storms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding. Expect convection to develop in Illinois during the afternoon hours, then shift eastward into Indiana during the evening. Best threat for any supercells will be along the IL/IN border and in NW portions of Central Indiana before storms begin congealing into clusters and bowing segments further east. CAMs shows several rounds of storms possible extending into the Thursday night timeframe as the front stalls out over the state again. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level flow pattern currently exists across the CONUS. Broad troughing is found over the western US with ridging over the east. Low-level flow has largely been out of the southwest across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, which has lead to generally warmer-than-average temperatures over the past week. Additionally, occasionally shortwaves have been ejecting from the deeper trough over the west. These features have provided us with periodic chances for showers and storms as well. Things change as we head into the long range, however, as the western trough begins to drift eastward. By late Sunday into early Monday, the trough axis is modeled to be over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow aloft returns to the Midwest, with colder air streaming southward. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing a trend towards cooler temperature through much of next week. Near to slightly below normal readings are favored, with daily highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s. Multiple nights next week have the potential to be near or even below freezing. As such, the probability of frost and freeze conditions is increasing. Days 8 - 14: Longer range ensembles hint at a return to the current pattern, featuring troughing out west with ridging to the east. A trend towards warmer-than-average temperatures and a more active storm track is favored around mid-month. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Impacts: - SCT TSRA near KBMG 18z-21z, then another chance for widely SCT TSRA at all sites 02-08z tonight - MVFR to IFR cigs persist through tonight - Winds becoming southerly and increase Thu AM, gusts to 35-40 kts possible Thu afternoon Discussion: A quasi-stationary boundary is currently draped across South Central Indiana this afternoon and will lift back north as a warm front overnight tonight. Continued MVFR to IFR cigs expected at all sites through tonight as low level moisture remains trapped under a stout inversion just above the surface. Satellite and radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms developing along the boundary south of KBMG. These storms should pass just to the SE of KBMG, however it is possible a storm may pass within a few miles of the airport, so have added a TSRA threat through around 21z. Plain rain showers continue for KIND, KHUF, and KLAF for the next several hours with little to no lightning threat through this evening. Tonight, the frontal boundary lifts northward, switching winds from northeasterly to southerly around or after sunrise tomorrow. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop overnight as the front moves northward; therefore have added a prob30 group for TSRA for all TAF sites. Highest confidence in storms is within the 02-08 timeframe. A few storms may be strong and produce small hail and lightning. For tomorrow, deep mixing into a strong low level jet will promote southerly wind gusts over 45 mph after 15z. Strongest winds expected at KHUF, KIND, and KLAF. While tomorrow should be mainly cloudy, any sunshine and increased surface heating could lead to higher wind gusts locally. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-028>031- 035>041-043>048-051>056-060. && $$ SHORT TERM...CM LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...CM |
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