461
FXUS63 KIND 240500
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
100 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and comfortable through Wednesday

- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through the weekend

- Hot and humid conditions increasingly likely by early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Another pleasant early summer evening taking shape over central
Indiana as lower-gradient yet very broad surface high pressure
occupying interior North America...drifts the axis of its eastern
appendage across Indiana.  Expect subtle diurnal drop in dewpoints
within respective low to mid-50s values across the region...which,
when combined with northerly flow becoming light/variable...will
promote patchy fog. Although partial increase in high cloud
through the overnight should generally mitigate any impactful
visibility reductions. Expect lows by early Wednesday ranging
from the low 50s north of the Indianapolis Metro...to upper 50s
southwest of Monroe County.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This afternoon through Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected as surface high pressure
continues to shift east across the region. Latest satellite imagery
depicts some diurnal cu has developed over portions of central IN
due to convective temperatures being reached. Temperatures have
already warmed into the lower 70s thanks to plentiful sunshine and
a drier airmass in place. Look for temperatures to continue
gradually climbing over the next few hours with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Light northerly surface may be limiting overall heating slightly.
The drier airmass across the region and mostly limited cloud cover
should continue promoting large diurnal temperatures swings. Expect
lows well into the 50s as winds become very light overnight before
then warming into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...

A low amplitude wave and associated weak surface low will move
through the region Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.
Modest moisture advection combined with sufficient forcing supports
the potential for some convection. However, uncertainty remains on
convective coverage as the antecedent dry airmass may be difficult
to overcome. Recent CAM runs are catching on to this scenario
showing less convective coverage. Severe weather or flooding from
heavy rainfall appears unlikely given relatively weak flow aloft and
lack of deeper moisture return.

Model guidance suggest the diffuse front associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system stalls over central Indiana by
Thursday. This will likely keep an active pattern in place through
the end of the week with multiple waves tracking across the
boundary. Widespread precipitation is expected late Thursday night
into Friday. The greatest rain chances are focused across the
southern half of the forecast area where the strongest forcing and
deeper moisture overlap.

Deeper moisture lifting north along with the potential for repeated
rounds of storms supports an elevated flooding threat, primarily
late Thursday into Friday morning. Modest enhancement of mid-upper
level flow on top of a modest-moderately unstable environment may
promote a marginal severe threat, but widespread severe weather
appears unlikely.

Saturday onward...

Rain chances remain in the forecast through Sunday as disturbances
continue to track across the meandering frontal boundary. Long range
guidance then depicts an amplifying upper level ridge shifting
eastward into eastern portions of the CONUS. The ridge axis should
be centered over the region late Sunday into Monday and remain
persistent through at least the middle of next week before possibly
retrograding. This will likely promote hot and humid conditions
Sunday through much of the following week.

Some uncertainty remains on exactly how hot temperatures will get
given high dewpoints in the 70s, but highs approaching the low 90s
appear increasingly likely by early next week. These temperatures
combined with dewpoints in the 70s could lead to potentially
dangerous heat indices approaching Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. High pressure
remains as the primary influence across the Ohio Valley with mainly
clear skies and light winds. It is not out of the question that a
brief visibility drop in patchy fog may impact KBMG in the predawn
hours but confidence is too low to mention at this time.

After a sunny start to the day...expect a slow increase in mid and
high clouds along with few to scattered cu during the afternoon as
an upper level wave approaches the region from the northwest. Widely
scattered convection may impact KLAF during the evening and possibly
KHUF and KIND towards the end of the period early Thursday morning
but anticipated coverage does not warrant inclusion in the TAF
forecast currently.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Melo