475
FXUS63 KIND 240200
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder and less humid through Tuesday

- Scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday evening to Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Near carbon copy of past couple nights on tap for central Indiana,
despite slightly lower readings and dewpoints as center of southern
Canada surface high pressure builds into the Midwest.  Winds to
become light and variable if not calm by pre-dawn hours...with
mostly clear skies promoting patchy fog by dawn...and low
temperatures in the 50s across the entire region, including 57F
inside I-465.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A progressively drier trend than the last couple weeks continues
through much of the upcoming week as high pressure resides over the
Ohio Valley for much of the forecast period. Deep upper level
ridging will remain tethered for the next several days over the
Intermountain West with a largely dry northwest flow over the
region. The passage of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday
will present the primary convective risk until the latter part of
next weekend.

Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday Night

Diurnal cu development has increased with heating as temperatures
warm through the 70s. Satellite shows more enhanced cu over the
Great Lakes extending south into northern Indiana with a few showers
near KFWA in response to the double barreled upper low pinwheeling
over Ontario. A piece of energy dropping south on the back side of
upper low will pivot across lower Michigan and Lake Erie later this
afternoon into the evening and may provide just enough lift in
tandem with the steep lapse rates and weakly unstable airmass
present to generate stray showers over northeast counties into the
early evening. This would be similar to what took place Saturday
evening but with lower instability levels limiting the coverage and
intensity of any showers. Most will remain dry but any location that
gets under a small shower may see a very quick downpour.

High pressure will fully settle over the Ohio Valley tonight through
much of the first half of the week with quiet weather and abundant
sunshine anticipated. Low level thermals support cooler than normal
temperatures through Tuesday with highs generally ranging from the
mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows
will be very comfortable in the 50s the next two nights before
return flow Tuesday night nudges lows back up into the low to mid
60s for most of the forecast area. Really cannot ask for a better
next 60 hours or so for the region...much deserved after the very
active and wet last few weeks.

Wednesday through Sunday

A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will
drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed
by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern
half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated
cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday in a
progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost.
There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately
ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the
front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday.

High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage
drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This
bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable
temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The
ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the
possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into
early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly
zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and
upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Impacts: MVFR in fog possible at outlying terminals 08Z-13Z

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through
Monday evening as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest.
Light northwest breezes early this evening will diminish by 01Z-02Z.
Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites again within 08Z-13Z Monday.
Overall light if not variable flow through the remainder of the
TAF period...excepting northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT
Monday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Ryan