018
FXUS63 KIND 071607
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1207 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/t-storms today and especially Monday, with
  greater coverage in afternoon...isolated flooding possible

- Humid and very warm this week...daily rain chances continue
  through Friday...readings near 90F on Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows a frontal boundary across
northern Central Indiana, stretching into Central Ohio. This
boundary was caught between high pressure over the Great Lakes and
another high over the southeastern states. Warm and humid southerly
flow was in place across the majority of Central Indiana. Dew point
temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Aloft, an upper
trough was found over the Central Plains states. Water vapor shows a
plume of tropical moisture ahead of the trough flowing into the
Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, providing deeper moisture within
the column. Radar shows some TSRA development over NE Illinois near
the boundary.

This afternoon, the combination of warm and humid air and daytime
heating should lead to the development of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Convective temperatures appear to be in the middle
80s. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates this afternoon with
plentiful CAPE. However wind shear profiles are weak. Pwats remain
very high with values over 1.8 inches. Thus chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with best chances this afternoon and evening near the
frontal boundary will remain in the forecast. Ongoing forecast
handles this rather well. Look for highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Generally humid conditions to continue early this week as H500
subtropical ridge builds north from Great Lakes today to much of
eastern North America by late Monday.  Associated quasi-blocked
pattern including short wave slowly progressing from central Plains
this morning to Midwest by late Monday...will focus broad ribbon of
deep Gulf moisture from Deep South north into Indiana and vicinity,
with precipitable water values exceeding 2.00 inches over much of
the region Monday.  Overall weakly-forced environment will promote
mainly diuranlly-driven convective showers and at least a few
thunderstorms, that will be favored near remnant subtle west-east
boundaries that flowed out of yesterday`s storms.

Pre-dawn small downpours, setting up along stale boundary from AM
Saturday storms... will continue to drift east towards Anderson/
Muncie areas by daybreak.  Otherwise, expecting overall less active
weather today as building ridge`s axis crosses local region,
although embedded small weakness drifting from SW to NE through
midday/ afternoon hours will likely kick up a few showers and
perhaps a few weaker storms.  Rainfall could become enhanced
near/north of the I-74 corridor this afternoon when this feature
crosses boundary from Saturday evening cells.  Tolerance for further
flooding will be weakest northwest of the Indy Metro where six
counties received 2-6 inches of precipitation through PM Saturday.

More active conditions/convective potential Monday as short wave
slides into region while lifting northward.  Unfortunately greatest
chances for numerous showers and also potentially training rain will
be over western zones, including northwest counties that will
continue to be susceptible to further flash flooding chances through
the mid-week.  Arrival of forcing aloft Monday will at least provide
a decent breeze amid the muggy air, albeit reinforcing dewpoints
into the low 70s for most areas with gusts 15-20 mph.  Temperatures
to range from lows around upper 60s to 70F to highs in the
80s...with the far southern tier nearing 90F today but few places
exceeding 85F Monday from thicker cloud decks and numerous showers.

Previous discussion follows for mid to late week timeframe:

Tuesday through Friday Night...

Chances for rain will persist through much of the week ahead. An
upper trough will push across Indiana on Tuesday, and some weak
forcing dynamics will pass on Wednesday. Thereafter, upper ridging
is expected to be found east of Indiana, allowing southwest flow
aloft as a stronger trough approaches for Friday and Friday night.
Meanwhile through all this time, forecast soundings suggest steep
lapse rates and favorable CAPE each afternoon. The lower level flow
will predominately be warm and humid gulf flow as surface high
pressure will be stagnant east of the Carolinas. Thus best chances
for rain will be on Tuesday and again on Friday and Friday night
when the best forcing chances area expected to pass. Otherwise,
daily diurnal showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Given our
expected warm and humid gulf flow, warm and humid conditions will be
expected with highs in the upper 0s by late in the work week.

Saturday...

For the moment, dry and mild weather looks in store for Saturday.
The moderate passing wave and cold front on Friday Night will allow
surface high pressure over the northern plains build across Indiana,
allowing a cooler and less humid air mass to arrive across the area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1206 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Impacts:

- VFR this afternoon and tonight; showers possible especially near
LAF.
- MVFR Cigs expected on Monday with Rain

Discussion:

Diurnal heating amid the warm and humid air mass in place across
Central Indiana will lead to CU development this afternoon along
with scattered rain showers. A lingering boundary from near LAF to
Richmond IN will continue to be a focus for development this
afternoon and evening. Cigs this afternoon will be VFR.

As heating is lost tonight any showers should diminish, but warm air
advection and moisture arriving ahead of an upper trough will
continue to keep CIGS in place.

Upper forcing and more moisture is expected to arrive on late Monday
morning. This will lift the frontal boundary farther north but more
widespread rain showers will be expected within the warmer and moist
air mass. MVFR Cigs will be expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...AGM