173
FXUS63 KIND 031019
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
619 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds today with small afternoon rain chances. Warmer.

- Milder but still largely below normal for the upcoming week, with
  multiple chances for rain; heavy rain possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over southern IL and SW Indiana. GOES19 shows clear skies
across Indiana. Dew points were dry and mainly in the low to mid
30s. Aloft, water vapor shows a deep upper low over Quebec, allowing
cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country. The result
from this is cool NW flow spilling across Indiana from central
Canada.

Today...

A quiet and cool weather day is in store for today. Due to the start
of some warm air advection, High temperatures will be a bit warmer
compared to the past few days. Minimal forcing is suggested to pass
within the flow aloft, but the 850mb level does show strong warm air
advection today. Time heights and forecast soundings react to this
showing the arrival of mid clouds this afternoon. Furthermore
convective temperatures appear to be reachable. HRRR suggest some
late afternoon showers across the area. Thus will keep some low
chance pops in the forecast, although any precipitation will be
light. Look for highs in the mid 60s.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in play starting
tonight and continuing through Tuesday. The upper pattern is
suggested to become nearly zonal. Deep low pressure will be well to
the north over Ontario, while a tropical high is in place over the
Gulf. This will result in a steady westerly flow with several quick
moving waves poised to pass tonight through Tuesday. Within the
lower levels, Monday in central Indiana looks to be spent within the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. SSW flow across the
area on Monday will allow dew points to climb in to the 50s.
Forecast soundings within the warm sector on Monday afternoon
suggest a favorable set-up for storms with CAPE over 1200 J/KG,
steep lapse rates and pwats over 1 inch. This will be a favorable
set-up for thunderstorms. More rain looks in store for Tuesday as a
cold front slowly moves across Indiana through the day while surface
low pressure rides along the frontal boundary across Indiana. Here,
forecast soundings show a deeply saturated column with pwats over
1.2 inches. Thus confidence for a wet couple of day to start the
workweek is high. Given the expected clouds, rain and change in the
airmass on Tuesday, much cooler temperatures will be expected then.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...

As the upper level support arrives late Tuesday through Wednesday,
surface pressure falls across the southern Ohio Valley will likely
reinforce lift across central Indiana through deformation leading to
additional rain chances. Latest guidance is advancing this forcing
quickly eastward, with QPF on Wednesday trending downward.
Temperatures for Wednesday will be cooler with deep cloud cover and
consistent troughing aloft; expect highs in the upper 50s to low
60s. Frosty conditions once again cannot be ruled out for Wednesday
night with 850mb temperatures hovering just below freezing. That
said, this will greatly depend on if clearing will occur as surface
pressure increases.

To end the week, there will be a slight pattern change as the
Bermuda high slides westward and the deep troughing over the eastern-
half of Canada begins to flatten out. This will likely lead to more
a more consistent pattern of near seasonal temperatures with brief
periodic rain chances along quickly passing shortwaves. Timing of
these waves is still widely varied amongst ensemble members.

As we head into the middle of the month, teleconnection patterns are
hinting at a weakening of the NAO of which should aid in progression
of the troughing to the north and a return to SW flow, resulting in
a stretch of warmer than normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 619 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Impacts:

- VFR this Taf period

Discussion:

Little change from the previous TAF issuance.

GOES19 shows clear skies across the TAF sites as strong surface high
pressure was centered over western KY and western TN. This high
will slowly move south east today, but continue to maintain control
of Indiana/s weather. Models suggest the arrival of mid level AC
this afternoon associated with ongoing warm air advection aloft.
Some of these clouds were found over WI and IA, but were
encountering subsidence and dissipating upon arrival. Eventually
this will result in the arrival of VFR cigs this afternoon which
will persist into the evening hours. An isolated sprinkle or very
light shower will be possible with these clouds, but confidence is
not high enough for a mention at this point.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ030-031-
037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma/AU