408
FXUS63 KIND 131031
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
531 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers today, possibly mixed with snow
  this morning

- Chilly temperatures through the weekend

- Dry weather returns this weekend through much of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A strong upper low will pivot across the eastern Great Lakes
through early Saturday...maintaining scattered light precipitation
and chilly temperatures today. As the upper trough moves away to the
east this weekend...dry weather will return with temperatures
gradually warming next week as broad ridging aloft and at the
surface expands across the region.

Today through Saturday Night

Scattered light showers continue to drift south across parts of the
forecast area early this morning. A north-south fetch of heavier
showers was organizing off of Lake Michigan and extending south
along the Illinois-Indiana border across the northwest part of the
state. Brisk northwest winds persisted with 07Z temperatures in the
upper 30s and lower 40s.

Central Indiana will remain under the influence of the deep upper
level trough over the eastern part of the country today and at least
to some degree on Saturday as well. Additional shortwaves will pivot
around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low
level clouds and periodic light precipitation today.

As mentioned above...a pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan
has led to the development of a persistent north-south band of rain
across northwest Indiana over the last few hours. As the boundary
layer cools into the predawn hours...rain is expected to mix with or
changeover to snow within a narrow band that should primarily
confine itself to immediate downwind areas of Lake and potentially
western Porter Counties. A mix of light rain and snow will extend
further south and may be able to briefly make it into the northern
Wabash Valley largely to the west of KLAF later this morning...aided
by another shortwave axis dropping through the region. As low level
temps modify slowly...the predominant precip type should transition
back largely to rain into the early afternoon.

Model soundings do show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with
modest lapse rates through early afternoon...with slightly drier air
filtering into the boundary layer by late day. Expect a healthy
stratocu deck to linger across much of the area as a result with the
potential for sprinkles or flurries for parts of the forecast area
generally to the east of Interstate 65 through mid afternoon. The
aforementioned north-south precipitation band will persist in the
vicinity of the Illinois-Indiana border into this evening before
decreasing flow within the boundary layer enables it to retreat
northward. Will maintain at least a small chance for light rain or
snow showers over the far northwest parts of the forecast area to
account.

As a final shortwave swings south of the region during the second
half of the evening...low level flow will back in tandem with drier
air gradually advecting into the region overnight. This will result
in a slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night
progresses. Scattered to broken stratocu will redevelop on Saturday
but should largely remain confined to the northeast half of the
forecast area in closest proximity to the departing upper low. Low
clouds will linger across northeast counties Saturday night with
skies clearing elsewhere as a strong high pressure ridge expands
into the area from the west.

Temps...nudged temperatures below the model blend for today as highs
should range from the low to mid 40s from north to south. Saturday
will only see marginal improvement as cold air aloft lingers on the
western flank of the upper trough. Highs Saturday will range from
the mid 40s northeast to near 50 in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows
will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s both tonight and Saturday
night.

Sunday through Late Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
for much of next week. Scattered to broken stratocu is likely to
linger across the northeast half of the forecast area on Sunday as
the upper low slowly moves away. A broad high pressure ridge will
then pivot into the Ohio Valley with a return to quiet weather and
mainly clear skies that will last for much of next week. Any
potential for rain will likely hold off until next weekend at the
earliest at this point. The onset of warm advection will usher in a
slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by
the middle of next week. Highs will rise steadily through the period
with lower to mid 60s by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 530 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered light showers at times through the first part of this
  afternoon

- MVFR ceilings through this afternoon with brief periods of IFR
  this morning

Discussion:

A large upper level low will continue to pivot over the area during
the forecast period with widespread low stratus...scattered light
showers and chilly northwest winds expected. Widespread MVFR
ceilings will persist into this afternoon with improvements late
today into tonight. Some brief drops to IFR ceilings will continue
this morning.

Northwest winds will be the rule through the period. Expect winds at
10 to 15kts for most of today...diminishing to light northwest
tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan