513
FXUS63 KIND 311415
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
915 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect through 9 am this morning

- Very cold temperatures will continue through Sunday

- Scattered snow showers through mid morning with flurries possible
  for much of the day

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before early
  in the work week, and if they do not, chances may be low well into
  February

- Chances for light snow Sunday night into Monday, Tuesday into
  Tuesday night, and Thursday night into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Light snow has increased in coverage and intensity as a vort max
aloft drifts southward. Broad lift, combined with some lake-
enhancement, has allowed snow to become moderate at times. Model
soundings show lift and saturation concentrated within the dendritic
growth zone. This will lead to rather efficient snowfall formation
and accumulations despite very limited liquid equivalence. A dusting
to as much as a half of an inch is possible with only 0.01" liquid.
Given the light and fluffy nature of the snowfall, impacts are
expected to be minimal as snow easily blows off of roadways. Still,
a few slick spots are possible especially within embedded heavier
snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Much of the forecast area has been mainly clear since late last
evening which has once again allowed much of the region into the -5
to 5 range for temperatures as of 07Z. Snow showers across northern
Indiana were continuing to progress south and were on the doorstep
of the northern Wabash Valley early this morning.

A sharp elongated east-west oriented upper trough continued its
southward pivot across the region early this morning. Light snow
showers and flurries accompanying the trough will move into the
forecast area from the north during the predawn and continuing
through mid morning. The upper trough will shift south of the Ohio
River after daybreak with ridging aloft and at the surface
developing by tonight. Bitterly cold temperatures will continue.

Light snow has made steady progress south from the lower Great Lakes
since last evening and will expand into the northern half of the
forecast area over the next several hours through daybreak.
Intensity has been diminishing further away from the influence of
Lake Michigan but lingering forcing aloft in tandem with the upper
trough will enable scattered light snow showers and flurries to
continue past sunrise and through mid morning before gradually
tapering back to pockets of flurries. A dusting remains a
possibility in spots across far northern portions of the forecast
area over the next several hours.

Model soundings show moisture becoming trapped beneath a
strengthening boundary layer inversion by midday with lower stratus
increasing in coverage this morning then persisting in abundance for
much of the rest of the day. While the upper trough will pull away
to the south...the dendritic growth zone will remain within the
moist boundary layer with flurries likely lingering on and off
through late today. Progressively drier air will build into the
region this evening as a high pressure ridge builds in from the
west. The inversion will weaken tonight as a result with stratus
decreasing in coverage as a result. Clouds may linger a bit longer
in the northern Wabash Valley as a persistent north-south lake
effect snow band maintains over northwest Indiana through late day
before diminishing as low level wind fields back and weaken in
response to the approaching surface ridge.

Temps/Wind Chills...the ongoing Cold Weather Advisory over the
southeast half of the forecast area this morning will continue
through 14Z. Skies should remain largely clear across much of the
Advisory area over the next few hours and have already seen
observations of wind chills between -15 and -10 in a few spots.

Nudged high temperatures down a degree or two from the model blend
with plenty of cloud cover and cold advection continuing. Expect
readings to top out between 15 and 20. Lows tonight will vary from
just below zero across eastern counties to around 5 degrees in the
Wabash Valley where clouds will linger longest. Minimum wind chills
tonight will approach -10 over eastern Indiana and it is quite
possible that yet another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. Have
held off on a new headline for now...both to limit confusion with
the ongoing headline and to utilize another round of model runs
later this morning that should provide a bit more detail on how cold
wind chills will get early Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Models continue to suggest little change to the ongoing wintry
pattern, with below normal temperatures prevailing, and occasional
opportunities for light snow through the coming week and beyond.

The large scale pattern looks to remain the same, with ridging over
or just off the western CONUS, and large scale troughing dominating
the central and eastern CONUS, allowing for occasional clipper
systems to drop through the Great Lakes, as well as one system which
looks to develop within the southern stream Monday night into
Tuesday and push eastward, with additional Arctic intrusions
possible at times in between these systems.

Guidance has trended weaker and a bit further south with the mid
week system, though this will still bear monitoring in the coming
days as it could pose a threat for additional accumulating snowfall
somewhere in the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. At least a low
chance for light accumulations will come late in the work week with
another fairly substantial clipper as well.

Temperatures appear unlikely to get much warmer than the freezing
mark for highs at any point in the seven day forecast, and even that
is in question. If Indianapolis does not get to 32 degrees at some
point this week, it may not happen until mid February.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings developing this morning and lingering for much of
  the day
- Scattered flurries at KIND and KLAF through mid morning

Discussion:

Clouds continue to expand south early this morning and will slide
down into the MVFR category as the morning progresses. Scattered
flurries and a few light snow showers will accompany the expansion
of the stratus this morning but not anticipating any impacts from
the snow at KIND or KLAF.

Stratus will linger all day and through the evening as moisture
becomes trapped beneath a shallow inversion. Northerly winds will
become gusty for a brief period from mid morning into the afternoon
before becoming light this evening. Scattering of the MVFR deck is
possible late tonight as drier air arrives with high pressure...but
stratus may linger at KHUF for most of the night.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan