147
FXUS63 KIND 090807
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
307 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs generally in the low to mid 60s are expected over the next
  few days before temperatures cool down significantly

- Increasing precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
  with the potential for lingering precipitation on Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Today through Tuesday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected to persist as upper ridging
and surface high pressure build eastward into the region. Current
satellite and surface observations depict surface high pressure
centered near the central CONUS with clear skies across Indiana. A
very weak pressure gradient is contributing to light or even calm
winds at times early this morning. These light winds combined with
clear skies could allow for patchy fog to develop in
climatologically favored locations towards daybreak. Any fog that
develops should quickly mix out after sunrise.

Model guidance depicts a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes
Region around Tuesday morning with an associated weak cold front
pushing into central Indiana. No precipitation is expected from the
approaching boundary due to gulf moisture remaining cutoff. The weak
frontal boundary could cool temperatures slightly.

Return flow will moderate temperatures through Tuesday before the
cold front arrives. Look for highs to generally range from the low
to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs on Tuesday
could end up being a few degrees cooler than currently forecasted
depending on when the front arrives. A quicker FROPA Tuesday morning
would likely limit daytime heating.

Wednesday through early next week...

A deepening shortwave trough moving in from the northwest on
Wednesday is expected to promote surface cyclogenesis across the
Midwest. Latest ensemble guidance depicts the surface low developing
near Illinois and continuing to strengthen as it progresses
eastward. Increasing dynamics from these features combined with
sufficient gulf moisture surging northward supports increasing rain
chances. Scattered to numerous showers are possible and weak
destabilization late Wednesday may support a few thunderstorms.

The parent trough is expected to continue deepening across the
eastern CONUS through late this week with strong cold air advection
across central Indiana. Broad cyclonic flow, steepening lapse rates,
and lingering low-level moisture will continue to promote the
potential for showers on Thursday. Latest guidance continues to
suggest precipitation will linger through Friday given a favorable
fetch off of Lake Michigan. Isolated rain/snow showers are possible
to end the work week, but QPF amounts are expected to be minimal due
to very limited moisture and weak forcing.

The aforementioned low pressure system and parent trough will shift
eastward over the weekend while an amplified upper ridge builds into
the central CONUS. Warm air advection ahead of the upper ridge is
expected to help moderate temperatures over the weekend into early
next week. Drier conditions are also likely. Look for a
roller coaster in temperatures from the middle of this week
through early next week. Highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday
will quickly cool down well into the 40s by Friday before then
warming back up into the 50s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for patchy fog with MVFR visibilities at the outlying
  TAF sites towards daybreak

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will generally light out of a WSW direction through this
morning. Patchy ground fog will once again be possible towards
daybreak at the outlying TAF sites. Maintaining a period of MVFR
vsby to account for this potential. Any ground fog would be very
shallow and should not limit vsby into the IFR category for any
length of time.

As the inversion breaks during the late morning, WSW winds will
increase slightly, but remain under 8 kts at all terminals through
the day. Skies will be mostly clear through the period with just a
few passing cirrus clouds expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo