627
FXUS63 KIND 101428
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
928 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible today.

- Mainly dry into the late week...with slightly above normal
  readings amid often light winds and ample sun

- Rain showers are likely Saturday night-Sunday, especially south of
  I-70...with uncertainty on the exact timing/amounts

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder
  conditions expected

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Nudged high temperatures upward this morning based on upstream
trends. Advection fog has developed last night across southeastern
Missouri and southern Illinois, but quite a bit less than guidance
initially depicted. Additionally, shallow mixing has occurred this
morning with a light south-southwesterly wind. Temperatures in
response have risen quickly into the 40s where this mixing has
occurred.

ACARS soundings out of IND show a very strong warm nose centered at
900mb. Temperatures at this level are roughly 15 degrees C. Assuming
full adiabatic mixing to this level, it would lead to temperatures
in the 70s. However, the boundary layer is not expected to mix as
efficiently as that. Mainly due to the presence of a deep snow pack
and a low-level jet that`s weakening with time. Furthermore, a
surface  cold front is advancing from the northwest and will arrive
early this afternoon.

So in terms of high temperatures, we went above guidance with weight
added to the HRRR. This places temperatures well into the 50s for
the bulk of our CWA with a few locations nearing 60 degrees. The
coldest locations are over the northeastern parts of the area where
snow is deeper and warm air advection isn`t as strong.

As mentioned before, there is some advection fog over southern
Illinois. This may continue or lift into a low stratus layer despite
the sun being up and modest boundary layer mixing. Should this
happen, then locations that see fog/stratus will not be as warm as
they otherwise would be.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 314 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Early this morning, some high clouds were passing across central
Indiana. Thanks in part to the clouds and to southerly winds,
temperatures were warmer than recent nights and in the middle 20s to
middle 30s.

A cold front was back across Wisconsin and Iowa. Water vapor
satellite was showing deeper moisture back in Texas and Arkansas.
Low level moisture had made it into Missouri and southern Illinois.

The main questions for this forecast are how much if any fog will
develop today, and what effects clouds/fog/snow cover will have on
temperatures.

Dewpoint depressions remain high across central Indiana. The better
moisture is back where the fog is across Missouri and southern
Illinois. Winds will take a while to become southwest, perhaps into
mid-morning. Thus, feel odds of advection fog are lowering for the
predawn hours. The SREF and HREF both show fog developing during the
morning hours into the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile,
the HRRR disagrees and says no fog.

For now, believe that enough moisture will be lifted over the deeper
inversion across the forecast area for stratus to develop rather
than widespread fog. However, will have to monitor closely,
especially if better low level moisture makes it to the deeper
snowpack across areas east and southeast of Indy and allows fog to
form.

Looking at temperatures, readings will start off mild. Warm
advection ahead of the cold front will work with some initial
sunshine to boost temperatures. However, the developing stratus deck
will limit sunshine during the afternoon. Monday`s temperatures did
well even with the snow cover, so that won`t be as much of a
limiting factor as previously thought.

Given the uncertainties in stratus cover and fog development, will
not stray too far from blended guidance. For now will go with lower
40s to middle 50s for highs. If thicker stratus and/or fog develop
over the deeper snow cover, readings will be colder.

The deeper moisture currently well to the southwest of central
Indiana will arrive too late to interact with the cold front enough
to produce any rain. Will continue a dry forecast.

Tonight will be dry behind the cold front. Cold advection will bring
some lower level clouds, especially across the eastern forecast
area. Lows will be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 314 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Wednesday through Friday...

Overall quieter pattern to continue into at least the first half of
the long term period.  Retracted and mainly zonal flow will prevail
across most of the central/eastern CONUS through the late week,
allowing late-winter surface high pressure to slowly cross the
Midwest.  Any small/brief mid-level weaknesses sliding from the
Dakotas to the Ohio Valley should not have enough gumption to get
any precipitation through the dry column....although overcast skies
that will be more likely around the Thursday to Thursday night
timeframe should be bookended by otherwise partly to mostly clear
conditions.

Perhaps moderate northwest breezes Wednesday when the high pressure
slides in, with unseasonably light winds then being the rule through
the rest of the workweek.  Readings to be suppressed only slightly
from the weaker ridge...with modest return flow through the late
week facilitating slight moderation.  Therefore expect temperatures
overall slightly above normal...ranging from 20s to 30s/40s, with a
noticeable north-sotuh daytime gradient courtesy of the zonal
heights pattern.

Saturday through Monday...

Weekend to likely turn cloudy yet with above normal temperatures as
stacked cut-off low crosses southern US under broadening upper ridge
across the northern states.  Less confidence in duration and amounts
of associated precipitation...with ensembles favoring moderate to
perhaps heavy rainfall along Ohio Valley Saturday night into much
of Sunday, yet perhaps only scattered showers near/north of I-70.
Despite southern track of surface low pressure, lack of polar air
will likely keep 1000-500 mb thicknesses above 550 dm, so at the
moment higher certainty in rain-only p-type.

Flooding will be a potential concern, especially across southern
zones where greater rainfall...and greater antecedent liquid will be
trapped in any lingering snow pack above frozen ground. The
potential for ice jam development this week will remain a concern
(through the entire long term amid moderation, again especially
south where readings are expected to near 50F Thursday and
onward)...with any ice jams potentially increasing impacts of
flooding from snow melt / partially-frozen ground / moderate-heavy
rainfall.

Moderate confidence that the weekend system departs in time for the
long term to end on a dry and even milder note as the synoptic H500
ridge builds north into south-central Canada.  Next area of low
pressure likely tracking near the northern Plains would provide at
least modest southerly flow...which could bring the highest
temperatures to central Indiana since early January.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 534 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Impacts:

- Low level wind shear this morning
- MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon
- Wind shift to NW this afternoon

Discussion:

A low level jet will continue LLWS conditions this morning.

Moisture moving into the area may create some patchy fog at KBMG
into early afternoon, but given recent observational trends, feel
that odds of fog are too low to mention.

As moisture continues to flow into the area ahead of a cold front
today, MVFR stratus will likely develop. Uncertainty remains on how
widespread it will be and on when it will form, but what develops
will get pushed out of the area this evening.

Lower clouds tonight should remain east of the TAF sites.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50