450
FXUS63 KIND 071839
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warning in effect for E/NE portions of central Indiana from
  11PM tonight through 9AM Wednesday.

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through the weekend.

- After rain chances return Thursday into Friday, dry weather is
  expected for the weekend.

- More rain chances on Monday and Tuesday may bring receding rivers
  back into flood stages for some areas with active weather
  potentially continuing beyond the 7 day forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

This afternoon through Wednesday Night...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the middle of
this week under the influence of a Canadian surface high across the
region. Large scale subsidence has promoted a mostly sunny and
seasonably cool spring afternoon. Expect the high pressure system to
shift eastward Wednesday allowing temperatures to quickly warm up.
Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s today will warm well into the 60s by
Wednesday, possibly near 70F for far SW counties. Look for even
warmer temperatures in the 70s on Thursday.

A Freeze Warning is in effect for E/NE portions of central Indiana
from 11PM tonight to 9AM Wednesday as temperatures drop to freezing
or slightly below freezing. Frost development is unlikely due to low
RH values and winds remaining slightly elevated. Some patchy frost
cannot be completely ruled out though in sheltered locations if
sufficient RH is present. Make sure to cover any sensitive outdoor
plants.

While mundane weather is expected Wednesday, there is slightly
elevated fire conditions. This is due to deep mixing promoting
minimum RH values around 25 to 30 percent while winds could
occasionally gust between 15 to 25 mph. These gusts should primarily
be focused over NW portions of central IN closer to an approaching
LLJ.

Thursday and Thursday Night...

A system moving in late Thursday will promote increasingly breezy
conditions with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Dry weather should
persist for much of the area due to lingering subsidence induced dry
air ahead of the disturbance. However, low rain chances do return
across the north as an associated cold front moves in late. Slightly
higher rain and storm chances can be expected into the overnight
hours once the boundary stalls over the area.

Friday and Friday Night...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms persist as a quick moving
upper trough along with forcing dynamics pass across Indiana aloft
through the day. A cold front is suggested to start the day over
northern Indiana and northern Illinois. This feature will sag
southward through the course of the day. Given these two features,
and adequate moisture available, chances for rain will be needed
through Friday night as the front sags southward toward the Ohio
river.

Saturday through Sunday...

Dry and warmer weather will be expected over the weekend. Models
suggest strong ridging to build across the Ohio Valley and the Great
Lakes aloft. This will result in subsidence across the area as seen
within the mid levels. Furthermore, strong surface high pressure is
expected to dominate our weather as it moves across the Great Lakes
through Sunday. Lower level flow looks to remain easterly on
Saturday, but southerly, warmer, return flow begins on Sunday. This
will result in Sunday being the warmer day of the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to return as warm
and moist low level southerly flow is expected to be in place at
that time. Models suggest the upper flow will develop into a trough
over the western CONUS and ridging along the east coast. This will
result in SW flow streaming into Indiana aloft, along with waves of
forcing dynamics passing across Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
Although there will be chances for precipitation on Monday and
Tuesday, the best chances for rain will be on Tuesday. This will be
due to the extra ingredient suggested of lower level forcing as a
cold front northwest of Indiana will push across our state through
the day on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Impacts:

- Winds veering through the period, shifting from northeasterly this
  afternoon to southerly by Wednesday afternoon

- Wind gusts between 18-23 kt possible Wednesday afternoon,
  primarily near LAF

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period with surface high
pressure across the region.

Winds will shift from the northeast to the east this evening,
generally around or below 10KT. Winds then shift to southeasterly
late tonight before becoming southerly by Wednesday afternoon. Wind
gusts between 18-23 kt are possible Wednesday afternoon, primarily
near LAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
INZ021-030-031-038>042-048-049-056-057-065.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Puma/Melo