325
FXUS63 KIND 021902
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and
  storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall
  and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Wind Advisory for this afternoon with southerly winds gusting up
  to 45 MPH

- Strong to severe storms possible late today into tonight, as well
  as Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday; all hazards possible,
  though damaging winds will be the primary concern

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows
  in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or
  freeze conditions possible

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An active next 24 hours expected for Central Indiana with strong
winds and a few rounds of potentially strong storms.

Soundings from around the region show a mixed boundary layer
resulting in strong winds within the low level jet mixing down to
the surface. The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7PM for
sporadic gusts to 45 mph. Winds remain elevated overnight; however
gusts should drop off after sunset and remain under 30 mph through
Friday.

Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly
within the warm sector of a 1000mb low near Des Moines, IA. The
overall system shifts to the northeast tonight into the Great Lakes
while weakening, taking the best forcing for ascent and wind shear
with it. A trailing surface front stalls out tonight over North
Central Indiana as the entire system pulls away. While this isn`t
the best scenario for strong to severe storms, there is still a
marginal threat for severe weather this evening and tonight.

Latest IND ACARs sounding shows a moist boundary layer with dew
points around 60F and CAPE nearing 500 j/kg. CAPE isn`t overly
impressive and is expected to wane some going into this evening as
mixing dries out the boundary layer some. Also noting weak mid to
upper level lapse rates which could limit the overall severity and
coverage of storms as they track east into Central Indiana. CAMs
have been consistent in showing plentiful shear to support strong
to severe storms, however the overall profile including instability
and upper level lapse rates are only marginal. And with the best
dynamics and forcing closer to the parent system, confidence is
increase in the best severe threat remaining closer to the IL/IN
border and in NW portions of Central Indiana. 18z ILX special
sounding confirms the marginal environment for severe weather this
afternoon. In fact, the environment over Central Illinois is a
little more supportive for supercells this afternoon with more
instability and higher shear. Latest Hi-res guidance does show storm
initiation within the 19-21z timeframe in South Central Illinois and
near the MO border , however hi-res ensemble probs depict storms
struggling to vertically grow above 30kft. Based on the current
environment and hi-res guidance trends, thinking the best chance at
any severe storm will likely remain in Western Indiana before sunset
with damaging winds being the main threat. But as mentioned above,
the limiting factors to severe weather should prevent the high wind
or tornado threat from being widespread in Indiana. Nonetheless,
best timing for storms to approach the IL/IN border is around 22z-
23z, pushing east/ northeast 00z-02z into Central Indiana. Do think
discrete cells will begin to merge into a mixed mode line with
embedded lower topped supercells and bowing segments. There is a
strong signal that storms fall apart during their eastward
progression as the entire mid latitude system and supportive
dynamics pull away. Lower confidence exists in any severe threat
this evening and tonight east of the I-65 corridor.

In addition to the marginal severe threat, any thunderstorm has the
potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding, especially in
areas that get repeated rounds of storms tonight where 1-2" of rain
could fall locally. Outside of those localized areas, widespread
rainfall amounts through tonight should remain around or below a
half inch.

Later tonight, The cold front won`t make it fully into the area
before pushing back northward in response to development and
northeastward movement of another low pressure system tonight into
Friday. This set up keeps the area within the warm sector and
continuing thunderstorm potential into the day on Friday. With the
increase in the LLJ ahead of the front overnight, CAMs has been
consistent in showing additional storms developing in the 04-08z
timeframe within Central Indiana. Weak, yet positive theta-e and
moisture advection right along the front may increase instability
enough to support a few storms overnight. With a marginally unstable
and humid environment and sufficient shear still present for
organized storms, would not be surprised to see a strong to severe
storm or two behind the main line of storms. This secondary round
likely will not be as widespread as the first round, remaining more
isolated to scattered in nature. A marginal damaging wind and hail
threat exist with this second round but not expecting anything
significant.

For Friday, Soundings indicate early day capping eroding eventually
being overcome by diurnal heating, with much better instability in a
modest shear environment supporting potential for strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon into evening as the front remains draped
over North Central Indiana. Overall, Friday should not be a washout
of a day. Expect cloudy, warm, and humid conditions the first half
of the day with storms developing along the front within Central
Indiana during the afternoon. Highs once again will be above average
in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level flow pattern
currently exists across the CONUS. Broad troughing is found over the
western US with ridging over the east. Low-level flow has largely
been out of the southwest across the Mississippi and Ohio River
valleys, which has lead to generally warmer-than-average
temperatures over the past week. Additionally, occasionally
shortwaves have been ejecting from the deeper trough over the west.
These features have provided us with periodic chances for showers
and storms as well.

Things change as we head into the long range, however, as the
western trough begins to drift eastward. By late Sunday into early
Monday, the trough axis is modeled to be over the Great Lakes.
Northwesterly flow aloft returns to the Midwest, with colder air
streaming southward. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing
a trend towards cooler temperature through much of next week. Near
to slightly below normal readings are favored, with daily highs in
the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s. Multiple nights next week
have the potential to be near or even below freezing. As such, the
probability of frost and freeze conditions is increasing.

Days 8 - 14: Longer range ensembles hint at a return to the current
pattern, featuring troughing out west with ridging to the east. A
trend towards warmer-than-average temperatures and a more active
storm track is favored around mid-month.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to VFR cigs through the period

- Strong to severe storms possible 22z to 04z, additional scattered
storms 05-10z.

- Southerly winds sustained at 15-25KT with gusts approaching 40KT
at times

Discussion:

Multiple aviation hazards to discuss over the next 24 hours for
Central Indiana. Strong southerly winds are ongoing this afternoon
as Indiana remains well within the warm sector of a mid  latitude
low pressure system to the west. Steepening near surface lapse rates
have led to a deep mixed layer into a strong low level jet
supporting wind gusts nearing 40 kts at times. These gusts will
persist into the evening hours as the front and associated storms
approach. SSW winds remain elevated around 10-15 kts overnight and
into Friday with gusts only around 20-25 kts max.

Short term guidance has honed in on the 22z-04z timeframe for best
chance for strong to severe storms to track SW to NE through Central
Indiana. Expect storms to be near the IL/IN border around 22z, then
work their way northeastward... weakening likely as they approach
the I-65 corridor. KHUF and KLAF have the best chance at seeing the
most severe storms with high winds, lightning, and  IFR or worse
cigs and vis. Storms should be in a weakening phase as they approach
KIND and KBMG, but still expect erratic wind speeds and directions
and lightning to be threats to aviation. Hi-res guidance has been
consistent in showing a secondary round of showers and a few storms
within the 05-09z timeframe. Confidence is lower on the overall
strength and coverage of this next round, but still wanted to
mention it in the TAFs with a Prob30 group. Expect a brief break in
the convection around sunrise Friday through early Afternoon before
scattered convection redevelops again over Central Indiana.

MVFR to VFR cigs expected to persist through this evening with IFR
or worse cigs and vis likely under any thunderstorm. Keeping cigs
MVFR to IFR going into Friday morning slowly rising into Friday
afternoon, but likely remaining MVFR to low VFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...CM