624
FXUS63 KIND 090137
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into
  tonight.

- Additional chances for precipitation late Saturday night into
  Sunday and again towards mid week

- Milder temperatures Saturday with highs in the 70s before
  slight cooldown late weekend into next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Rain continues as of 9pm across much of the area along and south of
I-70. High-resolution CAM guidance is handling the rain quite well,
based on recent radar trends. We`ve trimmed PoPs across our northern
counties since most guidance now depicts rainfall remaining where it
is rather than spreading northward.

Winds are becoming light across the region as well, now between 5-10
knots. Further weakening is anticipated with some locations expected
to become light and variable by morning. Steady rain is slowly
adding moisture to the boundary layer, though ceilings remain
elevated at around 6000-7000ft.

These clouds are expected to clear after about 06z as rain begins to
depart to the east. Residual boundary layer moisture could condense
into either a low stratus layer or fog. Fog development is dependent
on wind speeds, which may remain around 5kt through the night. The
locations that have the best chance at fog are across our north and
west, where winds become light/variable and skies clear earliest.
Should fog develop, it could become locally dense.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

This afternoon through Saturday...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are ongoing across much of central
Indiana as weak surface ridging remains in place. Current
radar/satellite imagery does show an extensive area of clouds to
the west with precipitation now moving into northwestern counties.
This is associated with an approaching shortwave which will
support numerous showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms
later today into tonight. Severe weather is not expected due to
weak instability, but a strong sub-severe storm cannot be
completely ruled out if sufficient destabilization occurs given
strong flow aloft.

Localized flooding appears to be a slightly greater threat into the
overnight hours. While the environment does not support efficient
rainfall rates, there is some concern for training due to the weak
boundary slowly progressing southward. Latest CAMs suggest the
potential for a corridor of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain near or
south of I-70. These rainfall amounts on top off recent rainfall
earlier in the week could lead to minor localized flooding.

Precipitation is expected to gradually clear out from NW to SE
during the overnight as the aforementioned system and weak boundary
move out. Increasing heights aloft along with weak surface ridging
building in on Saturday will allow for quiet weather conditions.
That said, a stray shower cannot be ruled out across northeastern
counties. Breezy conditions are expected into the afternoon hours
due to diurnal mixing into a modest LLJ. Warm air advection will
allow temperatures to warm into Saturday with highs in the 70s.

Saturday night through Sunday...

Rain chances return to the forecast late Saturday night into Sunday
following another subtle wave moving in. The subtle wave and an
associated cold front should promote isolated to scattered showers.
Diverging model solutions limits forecast confidence, but the
greatest precipitation chances are late Saturday night when the cold
front moves through. Cold air advection behind the departing system
will then advect cooler-drier air across central Indiana. Isolated
light showers may linger into Sunday, mainly across south-central
IN. Expect cooler temperatures into the 60s again on Sunday.

Sunday night onward...

Quiet weather conditions are likely Sunday night through Monday with
most guidance depicting strong high pressure building in. Rain
chances return once again on Tuesday ahead of another low pressure
system. Coverage of precipitation and overall QPF amounts remain
uncertain this far out. One of the main caveats is moisture return
appears subtle ahead of the approaching system. An amplified
shortwave should promote surface cyclogenesis north of the area so
light precipitation does appear likely for at least parts of central
Indiana. This system is expected to depart on Wednesday supporting
drier conditions. Look for temperatures to gradually moderate
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Impacts:

- Rain throughout the evening, to around 07z
- MVFR or worse CIG after 04Z, through 12Z
- Fog possible after rain ends, especially HUF and LAF
- Wind gusts to 20kt Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

Rain has moved into central Indiana with MVFR visibilities at times.
The primary axis of rainfall will be from HUF, IND, and BMG
continuing through about 06z, with only scattered showers possible
at LAF. A rumble or two of thunder is possible, with the best chance
at BMG.

After the rain ends, light winds along with clearing skies could
lead to patchy fog formation. This depends on where the heaviest
rainfall occurs, however, and how fast skies clear after it ends.
For now, tempo groups have been included at HUF and LAF for reduced
visibility.

MVFR/IFR ceilings likely develop over night along with potential fog.
These conditions could persist into the morning hours on Saturday.
Clearing is expected with a return to VFR by 16z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Melo