733
FXUS63 KIND 292257
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
557 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday,
  with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several
  degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Potential for very light snow along and south of the U.S. 50
  corridor this evening into the overnight hours.

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid
  week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shortwave centered over the central plains will shift E-SE towards
the lower MS valley tonight and into the TN valley and the Southern
Appalachians on Friday. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave will rotate
southward out of southern Canada into the Great Lakes/upper MS
valley tonight into Friday. At the surface a large area of high
pressure will continue to extend from southern Canada into the
Southern Great Lakes, while a weak area of low pressure over the
Southern Plains moves towards the southeast CONUS through Friday.

Despite some FGEN located in the dendritic growth zone expected to
skirt far southern portions of central Indiana tonight associated
with the MS valley shortwave trough, very dry air below 8kft will
likely lead to nothing more than flurries. Have opted to keep a slim
corridor along and south of U.S 50 with a slight chance of light
snow, but QPF was removed from the fcst grids.

Copious mid-high cloud cover will gradually thin across northern
portions of the forecast area later this evening, before filling
back in later tonight in the region of upper divergence ahead of the
next stronger shortwave moving south over the upper MS valley. Mid-
high clouds look to stay across southern portions of central Indiana
through the night. Meanwhile, veering of the 925-850 mb flow over
northern indiana will slowly push lake effect low clouds into far
northern zones. There will likely be enough clearing in northern
portions of the forecast area to fall to their overnight mins before
06Z, before steady or slow rise afterwards with the increasing cloud
cover. Generally light winds (5 mph or less) combined with higher
min temps (+6 to -2 F) than we`ve seen the last 2 nights owing to
the cloud cover, will support min wind chills staying above the -10F
cold weather advisory criteria. However, widespread wind chills in
the negative single digits will still be noteworthy enough that a
SPS will be issued for tonight into mid-morning tomorrow.

As the stronger shortwave progresses southward into the Great Lakes,
northerly flow will increase through the BL. Expecting increasing
lake clouds to spread southward through the forecast area as a
result. Forecast soundings show fairly strong CAA aloft as 850 temps
fall to as low as -19C by 00Z Saturday. Steepening low level lapse
rates combined with some lake enhancement moisture flux may support
some very light snow showers. For now, have opted to add flurries
into northern portions of central Indiana during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Cold continues through the long term but relief, albeit quite
relative, is finally in site with highs returning to the 20s next
week. This weekend will provide one last blast of frigid air and the
chance for flurries at times. Highs will be in the teens Friday and
Saturday with lows near 0. A short wave passing through will produce
just enough wind to potentially drop wind chills back into advisory
criteria Friday night so one last headline may be needed. The wave
could also bring chances for flurries periodically this weekend, but
moisture will largely be lacking thanks to blocked Gulf moisture and
nearby surface high pressure.

Going into the new week, the highly amplified trough is expected to
finally break down, becoming more zonal and allowing for a warmer
southerly flow at times. Parts of the area could even creep into the
30s around midweek with lows in the teens. Models remain in decent
agreement of another trough passing through that could bring
additional snow midweek, potentially accumulating snow. Beyond this
system, the upper pattern hints at a cold airmass stretching back
into the area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 557 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for MVFR ceilings Friday afternoon

Discussion:

Mainly mid and high clouds will continue at times tonight. Some
short term guidance has been showing areas of dense fog developing
overnight near KIND, but given expected sky cover and very low
dewpoints at the moment, feel that odds of fog are too low to
mention.

Lower clouds will move in Friday afternoon. Ceilings will be low VFR
or potentially high MVFR. Some flurries may accompany these, but no
visibility impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...50