721
FXUS63 KIND 061036
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
536 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will diminish by mid morning

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70, with major
  flooding on East Fork White River at Seymour into weekend

- Another round of rain and thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday
  with an additional one half to one inch possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight and early
  Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth
  today, and potentially next Monday-Tuesday

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

An area of showers was moving out of the southeast forecast area
early this morning associated with a weak wave aloft. Fog had become
widespread across much of the rest of the forecast area with
visibilities at 1/2SM or less. 07Z temperatures were in the mid and
upper 50s.

An amplified regime aloft persists across much of the country with
an upper level trough moving through the Rockies and a downstream
ridge across much of the eastern part of the country. An upper low
will develop as the western trough deepens and retrograde off the
Baja California coast by Saturday evening. The remnants of the upper
trough will gradually deamplify as it moves east into the weekend as
an associated surface low tracks from the Missouri Valley later
today into Quebec by late Saturday. Unseasonably warm temperatures
will remain over the Ohio Valley into Saturday prior to the arrival
of a trailing cold front as the low lifts off to the northeast.

The primary issue early this morning is the expansion of dense fog
that has encompassed most of the forecast area since 04Z as deep
moisture is trapped beneath a shallow inversion. Introduced a Dense
Fog Advisory for all but the far southeast part of central Indiana
through 14Z as obs and webcams show the lowest visibilities have
become widespread. The inversion will weaken as the morning
progresses with fog diminishing by 14-15Z over most of the area.

Model soundings continue to highlight subtle instability above the
inversion which may be just enough to generate isolated to scattered
showers moving northeast from the predawn hours into the morning but
the overall trend into the early afternoon will be to mix out the
stratus in addition to the fog dissipating as S/SW winds increase
through the boundary layer. Peak wind gusts will increase to near
25mph by this afternoon in response to a tightening pressure
gradient. Cannot rule out isolated convection this afternoon with
modest lapse rates through 500mb with weak instability. Some of the
short range guidance appears to be overdoing surface moisture later
today...with the HRRR grossly so highlighting Tds into the upper 60s
over southern parts of the forecast area. This is consequently
producing SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 j/kg later today which
appears unreasonable. With a lack of more appreciable forcing
aloft will largely cap pops for the afternoon at 25 to 30%.

The main focus later today will be on temperatures as the increase
in warm advection along with some sunshine should enable temps to
soar to record levels. Nudged highs a degree or two above model
guidance with mid and upper 70s across the entire forecast area. A
few locations over southern parts of the forecast area could make a
run at 80 degrees. The record high of 75 from 1973 at KIND is likely
to be met or broken.

Convection that develops over the southern and central Plains late
today will drift towards the region late tonight in a weakened state
as it surges out ahead of the trailing cold front which will still
be west of the Mississippi River by 12Z Saturday. Much of tonight
will be dry and breezy with temperatures likely to remain in the
60s. Storms will approach the Wabash Valley shortly before daybreak
Saturday then spread east across the forecast area through the first
half of the day Saturday. The timing of arrival of the convection
Saturday morning supports only a conditional threat for severe
weather across the area with limited heating and instability. Cannot
rule out isolated damaging winds with any stronger convection but
additional rainfall on already saturated ground from rains the last
few days will be the greater concern on Saturday with precip water
values once again rising to above the climatological max for early
March. There is potential for another half inch to inch over most of
the area with locally higher amounts possible which could certainly
exacerbate ongoing flooding. Temperatures will rise back to near 70
prior to the cold front sweeping across central Indiana during the
late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

A break from rain chances will come Saturday night into Monday as a
broad surface high moves through the region in the wake of the
departing front, but rain chances will return as early as Monday
night and continue through mid week as the northern stream and a
southwestern CONUS cutoff low combine to promote moisture transport
back into the region along and ahead of a lengthy frontal zone
stretching from a strong surface low over the eastern Canadian
provinces back to an area of lee cyclogenesis over the high Plains.

Guidance has trended toward less tendency of the cutoff low to
rejoin the prevailing westerlies, and now move the frontal zone
through the area more quickly, though substantial integrated vapor
transport is noted along the boundary and a heavy rain threat will
remain a concern, primarily late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
front moves through.

Even with a short break from rain, antecedent conditions between the
ongoing river flooding and waterlogged ground will mean that it will
not take much in the way of heavy rainfall rates to produce renewed
areal and perhaps flash flooding, as well as potentially prolonging
if not exacerbating the river flooding situation, so this will need
close monitoring as the situation evolves over the weekend into next
week.

Will have to keep an eye on potential for at least a marginal severe
threat per experimental ML/AI severe guidance, though the hydrologic
concerns would be the more pressing of the two at this point,
obviously.

The quasizonal flow along with broad warm advection ahead of the mid
week front will keep temperatures well above normal throughout much
of the coming week, with near record highs again not completely out
of the question Monday and Tuesday. A bit of a cool down appears
possible post front late in the period into next weekend and perhaps
beyond, though uncertainty is high on just how long it lasts - but
latest 8-14 day outlook does show a tendency toward below normal
temperatures for the third week of the month.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 536 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Impacts:

- Sub-IFR ceilings with dense fog through mid morning

- Southerly winds gusting up to 25kts this afternoon

- Showers arriving towards daybreak Saturday with periodic MVFR
  ceilings

 Discussion:

Poor flying conditions will continue through much of the morning
with rapid improvements to VFR into the early afternoon. Dense fog
should begin to dissipate by 14-15Z with ceilings lifting out by 17Z
as low level mixing commences. Southerly wind gusts will peak up to
25kts this afternoon before diminishing by this evening. Sustained
winds will remain at 10-15kts however tonight with a tight
pressure gradient developing as a cold front approaches from the
west.

Convection ahead of the boundary will arrive in the Wabash Valley in
the predawn hours before spreading east across central Indiana
Saturday morning. Most rain should hold off at the terminals until
after 12Z Saturday but pockets of MVFR stratus will return to the
region late tonight along with wind gusts at 20-25kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>062-067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan