651
FXUS63 KIND 311041
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
541 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow developing late today through this evening will bring
  light accumulations focused especially along and northeast of
  Interstate 74

- Seasonably cold and dry over the next couple days with
  temperatures warming late weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Flurries have ended across the forecast area early this morning as a
weak upper level wave moves away to the east. A brisk W/SW wind
persists with temperatures largely in the 20s at 07Z.

Another and more potent upper level wave with an associated surface
low  will rotate around the parent upper level low over James Bay
late today and tonight. A cold front will extend west from the
surface low and push south across the region this evening. This will
bring another round of light snow to the northeast half of central
Indiana in particular late today and this evening which will
unfortunately coincide with New Years Eve activities for many.

Stratus remains over much of the forecast area in the wake of the
weak wave aloft early this morning and will only thicken and lower
through the morning as moisture once again becomes trapped beneath
an inversion within the boundary layer.

By mid afternoon...light snow will arrive across north central
Indiana and will gradually expand to the southeast into the evening
as the cold front approaches. Model soundings show the column
saturating up to between 500 and 600mb and through the dendritic
growth zone for a couple hours this evening which may allow for a
brief period with higher snowfall rates focused across the northeast
half of the forecast area. Initially...low snowfall rates combined
with temperatures in the low to mid 30s will limit any accumulation.
After sunset though...temperatures will fall back below freezing
with an uptick in snowfall rates. Snow ratios will be near climo
norms in the 10:1 to 12:1 range to start but as progressively colder
air builds south this evening...expect ratios closer to 15:1 by the
time snow ends around or shortly after 06Z. There is a possibility
of a brief period with freezing drizzle as the precipitation wraps
up overnight as well but confidence is too low for inclusion in
the forecast at this time.

Light accumulations will focus primarily along and northeast of
Interstate 74 with up to an inch by the time snow ends late tonight.
An axis of 1 to locally 2 inches is possible focused from near
Lafayette southeast through Anderson and New Castle where snowfall
rates are likely to be greater. Across the southwest half of the
forecast area...little to no accumulation is anticipated and rain
may briefly mix in as well before temps fall below freezing.
Considering the potential for increased travel on the roads this
evening for New Years Eve festivities...will issue an SPS across
the northeast half of central indiana to highlight the light snow
and subsequent slick conditions developing.

Temps...low level thermals support most if not all of the forecast
area making it to or above the freezing level this afternoon.
Temperatures will begin to slide back this evening then drop more
substantially overnight in the wake of the cold front as a renewed
surge of Arctic air advects into the region. Lows by Thursday
morning will be in the teens north of I-70 with lower to mid 20s
further south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

A relatively quiet pattern will set up for much of the extended as
northwest flow aloft late this week gradually transitions to broad
ridging over much of the country by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will warm in response to above normal levels by early next week.

The first day of 2026 will be the coldest of the extended as a
renewed arctic airmass settles over the region in the wake of the
frontal passage tonight. High pressure will build in for the tail
end of the week. Temperatures will only make in into the mid and
upper 20s over the northern half of the forecast areas Thursday with
subtle warming through Saturday.

The amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a ridge in the
western U S and a trough over the eastern half of the country will
break down as the ridging weakens but presses east towards the area.
High pressure will maintain dry weather into the weekend as a
surface wave passes to the south across the Tennessee Valley. This
will be close enough to bring increased clouds for Friday and
Saturday focused especially across the southern half of the forecast
area. Surface flow will swing around to the south as the high shifts
east of the Ohio Valley by the end of the weekend.

The passage of a warm front early next week will enhance warm
advection across the Ohio Valley with highs rising into the 40s to
near 50. A lack of appreciable moisture will limit any precipitation
potential with the boundary as it lifts north into the Great Lakes.
Confidence in the forecast as next week progresses diminishes as the
upper level flow regime becomes quasi-zonal and messy highlighted by
the potential for quick moving waves aloft moving through the
region. There are signs of a return to an extended period of colder
and unsettled weather across the Ohio Valley by the second week of
January.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 541 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings developing by late morning and persisting through
  the day

- Light snow with occasional MVFR to IFR conditions late
  this afternoon and evening primarily at KLAF and KIND

- Wind gusts this afternoon and evening peaking at 20 to 25kts

Discussion:

VFR ceilings largely continued early this morning across central
Indiana but MVFR level stratus will expand south through midday and
into the afternoon. Another upper level wave in tandem with a
frontal boundary will move into the region late today into this
evening. This system will bring more widespread light snow focused
especially across the northeast half of central Indiana. Snow may
briefly mix with light rain across western Indiana into the evening
before colder air arrives. Occasional MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected at KIND and KLAF in snow by late day into the evening with
the possibility for brief impacts at KBMG and KHUF by mid to late
evening as well.

Winds will increase this afternoon with peak gusts to around 20 to
25kts from the W/SW. As the front passes this evening...winds will
veer to northwest. Snow will end after 06Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan