911
FXUS63 KIND 060858
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
458 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler weather through Tuesday

- Frost Advisory SE Central Indiana through 9am. Freeze Watch
  northern half of central Indiana tonight

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through next weekend

- Isolated to scattered rain chances return Thursday onward, which
  may bring receding rivers back into flood in some areas

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The week will start off cooler than usual with the threat of frost
and below freezing mornings as high pressure moves through the area.
Behind the front, temperatures swing back to above normal for
midweek. The passing surface high will also bring quieter weather to
central Indiana throughout the short term.

Temperatures this morning have already dropped into the 30s for much
of central Indiana, with the best threat of frost potential across
our SE where the ongoing advisory is. Southwest winds and dew
points in the mid 30s will help keep temps dropping below freezing
this morning.

The large high pressure system stretches from Canada into the
central Plains and south. A weak but fast moving cold front will
swing through the area today, shifting winds out of the NW. Aloft
will reside strong winds which will mix down to the surface
throughout the day. Expect sustained winds of around 15 mph and
gusts up to around 30 mph, mainly during the afternoon hours. Behind
the front, the Canadian center of the high will move into the Great
Lakes region, pulling in the cooler and drier air.

Highs today will reach into the 50s to near 60. Mainly clear skies
are expected tonight, although some cloud coverage looks to move in
nearer to daybreak. Lows tonight will be the coldest of the next
week, with lows in the mid 30s in the south but down to the upper
20s in the north. There remains some question as to how cold and the
southern extent of the freezing line, but the northern portion of
the forecast area will very likely freeze for several hours Tuesday
morning. The cold will linger into Tuesday with highs only in the
40s to low 50s.

As the high pressure system pushes eastward, central Indiana will be
on the backside and return surface flow from the south. Associated
WAA will quickly warm temperatures back above normal with highs in
the 60s to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching low
from the east will further endorse the S to SW flow for Thursday.
The cold front off of that low could bring rain chances for our NW
counties as early as late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Expectation for late this week into the weekend remains a return to
above normal temperatures and a potential return to active weather.

The strong Canadian high will be off the east coast by 00Z Friday,
with a northern stream low near James Bay and moving rapidly
eastward. An elongated cold front stretching from this low back to
the central high Plains will stall somewhere near the region late
week and may produce multiple opportunities for convection, though
model disagreement precludes more than chance PoPs. Potential will
exist for multiple rounds of precipitation, which could prolong or
exacerbate ongoing flooding on main stem rivers given antecedent
conditions as a result of the wet weather in recent weeks.
Hydrologic ensembles do show renewed river rises next weekend in
response to this potential rainfall, though a mostly dry week will
help to hopefully blunt these impacts a bit.

There is little to indicate significant severe threats during the
latter portion of the forecast, and this is backed up by
experimental machine learning guidance. That said, week two outlooks
continue to indicate enhanced likelihood of warmer than normal and
above normal precipitation conditions, thus we may well be back in
an active pattern for mid to late April.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 457 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts 20-27KT from 300-310 degrees from 15-00Z

Discussion:

Deep PBL mixing and a passing dry cold front will result in winds
turning back toward the northwest and strengthening again today,
with sustained winds peaking at 15-19KT with gusts as high as 20-
27KT from mid morning through the afternoon. Winds and gusts will
subside in typical diurnal fashion after sunset.

A few fair weather cu and thin high clouds will be possible at the
sites today, though skies should remain mostly clear. A slow
increase in mid and high cloud can be expected late in the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ042-049-056-
057-063>065-069>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield