558
FXUS63 KIND 280540
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
140 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms at times today

- Locally heavy rainfall possible today

- Above normal temperatures expected through Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Showers and storms have moved out of Central Indiana this evening as
high pressure settles into the region from the north. Satellite
imagery shows mainly skies already with a few observations around
Indiana and Ohio indicating early signs of patchy fog development.
The main focus with this evening`s update will be the fog potential
later tonight for portions of the region. Confidence on where and
when fog develops is only marginal as it will be a race against the
incoming drier airmass. Observations across Northern Indiana already
show dew points in the 50s while most of Central and South Central
Indiana is still quite saturated near the surface with dew points in
the mid 60s to near 70. Thinking tonight could be a scenario where
the best time for fog development will be earlier in the night,
around midnight to 5am, before drier air pushes south. Winds are
already near calm in spots and clearing skies should allow for good
radiational cooling and resultant fog development. Thinking the best
threat for fog and dense fog will be the counties along the I-70
corridor and southward, any location where heavy rain fell earlier
today. Fog may persist toward and just after sunrise along and south
of I-70, while drier air to the north helps eradicate any fog a few
hours earlier. Will be monitoring the fog threat tonight and
updating the forecast as needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Today through tonight...

Surface low pressure located roughly over Knox County, per visible
satellite imagery, is slowly moving eastward today. A surface trough
extends from the low eastward into Ohio. This has been the source
of numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning. Shower activity
had largely diminished earlier this afternoon, however, as upper-
level support exits eastward. Nevertheless, showers have once again
begun slowly intensifying as sunshine warms the boundary layer
leading to some weak instability.

ACARS soundings out of IND show meager lapse rates but rich moisture
throughout the column. A deep warm cloud layer has lead to high
efficiency rainfall production, and heavy rainfall rates have been
observed (2 to 3 inches have fallen in a few localized areas).
Though shower/storm activity is less numerous than earlier, some
very localized totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible this afternoon.

Guidance shows surface low pressure weakening and drifting east this
evening, taking any lingering showers/storms with it. Clearing skies
are expected tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This
process may take some time, and low-level moisture from today`s
rainfall may take most of the night to scour out. If skies clear
soon enough, and dry air from the high doesn`t arrive until morning,
then fog may develop tonight. Locally dense fog is possible.

Thursday through early next week...

Long range guidance continues to depict an Omega Block pattern
developing aloft with ridging centered over the central CONUS and
central portions of Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds
into the region from the north. This will promote dry weather
conditions late this week through early next week. Expect another
warm day Thursday in the low 80s with highs then holding nearly
steady in the mid to upper 70s through early next week.

A few models have hinted at the ridge retrograding slightly,
allowing for a shortwave to move in aloft early next week. These
solutions are outliers, but this will continue to be monitored as
this could impact temperatures. Precipitation still appears very
unlikely during the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Impacts:

- Fog expected through 13Z at KBMG/KHUF with some potential near KIND

- Patchy dense fog possible near KBMG/KHUF

Discussion:

High pressure has built in from the north providing mostly clear
skies and light winds. Currently watching the progression of drier
air advecting in with the High as there will be a fog threat during
the overnight hours before the drier air arrives. Thinking the best
threat for any fog will be in the Wabash River Valley and those
areas which received heavy rainfall earlier today in Central and
South Central Indiana. Fog has already developed near KBMG/KHUF and
may develop near KIND after 08Z. KLAF remains drier with fog
unlikely. Look for fog to diminish by mid morning.

N/NE winds will be around 5 kts or less through daybreak. During
peak heating of the day tomorrow, NE winds of 08-12 kts are
expected. A few gusts up to 18kt cannot be ruled out, but the
potential is far too low to include in the TAFs. Expect VFR cigs and
vis during the day tomorrow.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo/Eckhoff