702
FXUS63 KIND 111650
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1150 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph at times

- Scattered snow showers this morning

- Scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday...with
  flurries and occasional snow showers late Wednesday-Friday

- Trend into dry yet colder conditions this weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Radar late this morning shows areas of light snow showers pushing
across Central Indiana from the northwest. This was amid broad
cyclonic flow in place across Indiana due to deep low pressure in
place over western Quebec. Strong high pressure was in place over
the southern plains with a ridge axis that stretched north to
Minnesota. GOES shows plentiful cloud cover upstream over northern
IL and WI.

Snow showers should continue to persist through the morning hours
across central Indiana as they continue to pull away to the
northeast with the associated low pressure area. This will also
allow for a gradual decrease in cloud cover arriving from the
southwest by mid to late afternoon. Thus minor adjustments to the
forecast, including some low pops for snow through the morning
hours. Given the lingering clouds and ongoing cold air advection,
trended highs slightly cooler to the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Upper-level water vapor imagery shows a well-defined vort max
moving southeastward across northern Illinois. A cold front passed
through ahead of it, roughly around midnight. Temperatures have
dropped into the 20s following a period of light to moderate
snowfall. Amounts upwards of an inch were reported near the Illinois
Indiana state line, with lesser totals further south and east.
Continued snow shower activity is likely as the cold unstable core
of the vort max passes overhead. Snow shower activity diminishes
around 14z as the vort max center passes east into Ohio. A few lake-
enhanced snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan may persist a bit
longer across northern Indiana. Some of these may reach as far south
as Muncie and points northeast.

Winds remain brisk through the morning hours and into the afternoon.
Surface low pressure to our northeast and high pressure rapidly
approaching from the southwest should promote a tight MSLP gradient.
West-northwesterly winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30kt are
possible at times. Winds rapidly diminish this evening as the high
builds in. The high center looks to pass just to our south, however,
so a period of calm wind is not likely. Instead, winds quickly
become west-southwesterly while increasing ahead of an upstream
system passing over the Great Lakes. Winds may once again gust
upwards of 20-25kt by Monday morning.

Temperatures likely reach near or just above freezing today, with
the coldest readings across locations that saw measurable snow
overnight. Persistent low stratus and wind should help keep
temperatures fairly steady for the most part. A period of clearing
is possible this evening, which may allow for a few hours of good
radiational cooling potential. As such, lows overnight drop into the
20s early before increasing winds and clouds level things off.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

This week will be overall seasonal as temperatures trend from
briefly mild into Tuesday...to near to slightly below normal
Wednesday night into the weekend.  A day of transition Wednesday
will feature scattered showers changing from rain to snow, with
additional flurries/snow showers into the weekend.

Broad polar trough over mush of central/eastern North America will
drag its more-zonal southern periphery over the Midwest through the
early workweek.  Moderate gradient between surface high well to our
south and seasonably strong low pressure crossing the northern Great
Lakes will provide robust southwesterly breezes gusting up to 20-30
mph both Monday and Tuesday...returning temperatures from the mid-
20s early Monday to around 50F later on Tuesday.  At time ample sun
Monday will shift to increasing cloudiness Tuesday ahead of the next
wave.

Wednesday`s colder transition will be accompanied by overall lighter
precipitation that may occur as two-parts...following plunging polar
surface high pressure that will guide the amplification of the
corresponding H500 trough southward from the Twin Cities to the TN
Valley. Increasing coverage of rain showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday will oversee winds increasing while veering to northwest.
A secondary flux of snow showers around the late Wednesday to
Wednesday night timeframe will have the potential for a rather brief
burst should forcing cross over southern Lake Michigan...with any
isolated stronger snow showers most likely west of I-65 given near-
northerly headings through the boundary layer.

Lowest wind chills of the long term expected for early Thursday as
hyper-amplified polar ridge builds east across the Mississippi
Valley into Indiana...allowing likely partial clearing, readings
below 20F and lingering moderate breezes...yielding wind chills as
low as the single digits.  Temperatures will struggle to exceed
seasonably chilly levels with any southwesterly breezes still
advecting out of the dome`s cold axis well to our south.  Flurries
and a few snow showers to continue through much of the late work
week with mositure-starved low levels beneath disturbed mid-level
pattern.  Outlook into weekend favors dry yet colder conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Impacts:

- Snow ends this afternoon with MVFR.
- Return to VFR tonight.

Discussion:

Radar continues to show snow showers diminishing across Central
Indiana. This trend will continue through mid afternoon as high
pressure slowly build across Indiana by late afternoon from the
plains states. A moderate pressure gradient across the area will
result in gusty winds through the afternoon. GOES19 continue to show
MVFR cigs across the area. These are also expected to persist
through some of the afternoon before clearing tonight as high
pressure builds.

Tonight and into Monday, the cyclonic flow and clouds will have
exited to the northeast allowing high pressure and warm air
advection aloft to build across central Indiana. Forecast soundings
trend toward a dry column. Thus have trended the TAFs toward VFR
conditions tonight and Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Puma