292
FXUS63 KIND 020217
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1017 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain expected tonight into Friday morning, with amounts
  of one half to one inch

- Dry and much cooler weather expected over the weekend into next
  week; potential for first lows to drop into the 30s across portions
  of central Indiana Tuesday morning

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

End of summer cold front to cross central Indiana tonight, bringing
increasing POPs from NW to SE...as an area of numerous rain showers
cross the region, with residence times of 4-6 hours for most
locations, passing the Indy Metro through pre-dawn.  So far this
evening scattered showers have only reached the Upper Wabash Valley,
but with adequate northerly flow behind approaching boundary...
expect fropa to reach the US-50 corridor by dawn Friday...with at
least a few hours of anafrontal RWs through the overnight for most
areas.

Cannot rule out isolated non-severe thunder which may promote
moderate to briefly heavy rain rates, although overall trend is now
suggesting lower rainfall totals closer to 0.50 inches through 12Z,
and greatest amounts northwest of a Crawfordsville-Kokomo line.
Ceilings will plummet behind the cold front with low stratus the
rule for the CWA by daybreak.  Limited CAA by early Friday will only
allow readings to drop to 60F in Warren County and to 67F south of
US-50.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Last day of warmth, at least for a while, before below to near
normal temperatures return behind a cold front passing through
central Indiana. The front will slowly sag southeastward through the
area starting late this evening lasting through midday tomorrow.

Rain will be associated with the front and while instability will be
limited, can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Precipitable water
values may approach 2 inches at their peak, which is near
climatological maximum for the time of year, but without a more
substantial convective component or stronger forcing, expect QPF
amounts to be limited to a widespread one half to one inch through
the event.

Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front leaving the
remainder of the forecast period to have dry and pleasant fall
conditions for the start of October. Highs this weekend into at
least mid next week will be in the 60s to 70s while lows are
expected to be in the 40s to 50s. There is a chance Monday night
that the first appearance of frost could arrive, mainly in our N/NE
as lows could drop into the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Impacts:

- Numerous showers overnight

- IFR CIGs possible between 08Z-14Z

Discussion:

Winds will generally remain out of the WSW/W around 8-10kt as the
front nears overnight. Conditions will deteriorate as the front
passes, with low clouds likely to develop, and VIS dropping within
showers. Showers are expected to become more numerous after 08Z,
clearing up shortly after dawn tomorrow morning. Widespread MVFR
ceilings are expected, but there may be periods of IFR during the
morning.

Conditions improve rapidly after frontal passage late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with VFR at the northern 3 sites after
15Z. Winds will back towards the N/NNE with occasional gusts in the
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...KF