180
FXUS63 KIND 130700
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and
  storms

- Severe weather is a possibility later today and Tuesday focused
  mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional
  threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday

- Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in
  the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Scattered showers have been extremely efficient early this morning
in pulling strong wind gusts briefly to the surface. Multiple
observations of 40 to 50 mph winds have been seen across the
northern half of the forecast area since late last evening with even
a higher gust to 65mph at KIND around 0530Z. Temperatures remained
warm with 06Z readings generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Today through Tuesday

The ongoing showers are associated with a potent upper level wave
traversing the region this morning. The ACARS sounding at KIND
continues to show an excellent setup for pulling the 50kt winds at
3kft agl to the surface with any showers as the presence of dry air
within the boundary layer and a dry adiabatic flow up to about 700mb
has produced an inverted V sounding. Over the most recent ACARS
soundings the top level of the dry layer has been slowly falling and
as of 06Z resided at around 800mb. Showers will impact the area for
a couple more hours with ideal conditions for stronger gusts
potentially in excess of 50mph at times. Freshened the SPS to
highlight more recent observations and trends with the focus for
strongest gusts shifting to the Indy metro and points northeast
through about 08-0830Z.

The departure of the core of the low level jet to the east and a
gradual top down moistening of the boundary layer will end the
threat for the strongest gusts within the next couple hours but
general wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will persist through much of
the day. Moisture advection will arrive quickly on the heels of the
departing showers and with it will come increasing instability which
may be enough to generate additional isolated to scattered
convection through daybreak prior to the back edge of the forcing
aloft associated with the upper wave shifts away to the east. Much
of the rest of the day through mid afternoon will be quiet with a
blanket of stratus settling over much of the forecast area as a
shallow moisture layer becomes trapped beneath an inversion. The
arrival of subtle surface ridging later this afternoon will enable
the deck to lift and mix out somewhat. Highs will again be near 80.

Scattered convection may redevelop by late day but should be largely
focused north of the forecast area in closer proximity to the warm
front across the lower Great Lakes. Any convection that does fire
into the evening over northern Indiana will carry a severe risk as a
narrow band of moderate instability aligns with a rapid increase in
shear and SRH within the 0-3km layer. Some of this convection may
slip into far northern portions of the forecast area during the
evening but the presence of a cap around 750mb should be sufficient
to limit most convective development this far south. Much of the
rest of the night will be quiet under a muggy airmass with continued
breezy southwest winds. Lows will only fall into the mid and upper
60s.

Most of Tuesday will be warm and humid with temperatures likely to
threaten record highs in the afternoon as readings warm into the
lower and mid 80s. A surface wave tracking along the frontal
boundary into the upper Midwest will serve as a trigger for robust
convective development in the afternoon that will likely migrate
E/SE Tuesday evening and night into a modestly unstable airmass with
steep mid level lapse rates across the region. Severe weather is a
threat focused mainly across the northwest half of the forecast area
during the evening as the frontal boundary drifts into northern
Indiana and a nocturnal low level jet becomes established. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat but all hazards are in play.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well although the recent
stretch of drier conditions over the last 7 to 10 days will limit
any flooding concerns. Showers and storms will continue through the
night and likely be ongoing at daybreak Wednesday across far
northern portions of the forecast area.

Wednesday through Sunday

Active weather will continue into the weekend as the aforementioned
frontal boundary remains north of the region through late week. A
stronger surface low will track into the upper Midwest Saturday and
pull the boundary through the area as a cold front. Cooler and drier
weather will follow for the second half of the weekend.

The front will nudge itself closer to the forecast area Wednesday as
low pressure occludes over the upper Mississippi Valley with a more
widespread convective threat for the entire area that will persist
into Thursday. A few storms may be severe yet again with modest
instability across the Ohio Valley especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. The boundary should retreat back north Thursday night
into Friday with chances for rain and storms lowering. Signs are
pointing towards another risk for severe weather Saturday as a cold
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures from the upper 70s
to mid 80s will be common this week with Friday likely to be the
warmest day.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday as
high pressure builds in behind the front. The cooldown appears brief
as upper level ridging should return to the Ohio Valley by next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers through 09Z with gusts up to 40kts possible
- Low level wind shear developing through the predawn hours
- MVFR ceilings expected from this morning through late afternoon
- Wind gusts up to 20 to 25kts likely through this evening

Discussion:

A strong upper level wave is moving across the region early this
morning with scattered showers. With the ACARS sounding at KIND
showing dry adiabatic flow below 750mb...the 50+kt low level flow
at around 3kft is having no difficulty in being pulled to the
surface within some of the showers. Peak gusts up to near 40kts have
occurred across Illinois and the western half of Indiana over the
last few hours and expect that to continue until the showers shift
east of the terminals by 08-09Z. Outside of the showers wind gusts
around 25kts will persist. Low level wind shear will remain a
concern for a few more hours until the core of the low level jet
moves off to the east.

An increase in low level moisture advection behind the upper wave
will prompt an expansion of MVFR stratus into the area after
daybreak and likely linger into the afternoon before mixing back to
VFR levels into the evening. Southwest winds will remain breezy
throughout the day with gusts peaking at near 25kts before lowering
this evening. Cannot rule out isolated convection by late afternoon
focused over northern parts of central Indiana but coverage will be
too sparse to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record
temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday,
and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and
any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time.

Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but
the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines
up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy`s record high is 85, set in 1883.
On Friday April 17, Indy`s record high is 87, set in 1896.

Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the
warm and relatively humid airmass. The first opportunity for this
comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in
2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that
number.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan
CLIMATE...50/Ryan