742
FXUS63 KIND 170115
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
915 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry Tonight and Friday. Showers and Storms return late Friday
  Night.

- Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with
  multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s

- Much cooler Sunday into Monday with the potential for
  frost early Monday morning

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface analysis late this evening shows ridging in place over IL,
building east toward Indiana. A weak cluster of thunderstorms were
moving across southern KY, away from central Indiana. GOES16 shows
this cluster diving southeast, but some high CI blowoff was
overspreading southern Indiana. Aloft strong ridging was also in
place.

Overnight, the ridging to the west will continue to build across
central Indiana, providing ongoing subsidence. The high clouds to
the south will quickly depart east, resulting in mostly clear skies
overnight. Overall, the ongoing forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Central Indiana is currently in the wake of a prior MCS with the
parent surface low still to the NW. Remnant mid-level moisture is
aiding in cu development as the atmosphere destabilizes, but there
still is currently not enough forcing across central Indiana for
these to grow into showers/storms. That said, there is a weak
confluence boundary over NW Indiana that is allowing for isolated
convection to occur, and a brief shower/storm cannot be ruled out
through 22Z over NW central Indiana. Now that the cu-field is
starting to expand, temperatures are likely to plateau, with the
expected high only a few degrees above current temperatures.

Tonight, high pressure will move into the area, clearing skies and
calming winds. This will lead to very efficient diurnal cooling
with temperatures quickly dropping to near the expected dew point
temperature and lows in the mid 50s. River valleys may drop even
further, potentially into the upper 40s.

During the day on Friday, warm and dry air advection will arrive,
pushing 850mb temperatures toward the 90th percentile of
climatology. This will likely lead to temperatures slightly above
guidance; highs are expected to be in the mid 80s. Upstream,
prefrontal boundaries will ignite explosive convection across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley, of which should quickly grow
upscale and develop strong cold pools. Model guidance is
suggesting this will reach central Indiana between 06-09Z Saturday
morning, but given the magnitude of the expected cold pools,
these solutions may be slightly too slow. The earlier the MCS
reaches central Indiana, the greater likelihood the cold pool
will be strong enough to create damaging wind gusts for our area,
and will be something to watch closely throughout tomorrow.

Due to the strong cold pool, there will be a corridor behind the
aforementioned MCS and the frontal boundary, likely to be within
central Indiana between 11-16Z. Within this corridor, modest mid
level moisture, but weaker lapse rates should lead to sub-severe
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once frontal passage occurs,
CAA induced pressure gains should lead to drying conditions and
end the rain threat fairly quickly. The morning frontal passage
will lead to a non-diurnal temperature curve with morning
temperatures likely to be warmer than afternoon temperatures on
Saturday.

Below normal temperatures will start off the new week in the wake of
the exiting cold front and as a surface high slides south from
Central Canada. Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to only reach
the 50s to low 60s with the threat of frost early Monday morning.

Temperatures will quickly warm again for Tuesday and on as the
Canadian high pushes east. Models also show the potential for a
boundary setting up somewhere in the region by midweek, which could
provide enough lift for some precipitation chances. For now keeping
with the low PoPs during that time that guidance has provided as
confidence in low in the long range solutions at this time.

Central Indiana will continue to often sit between systems with
tight pressure gradients, so a few breezy days are expected for next
week. Main concerns for now are Sunday, behind the exiting low, and
Tuesday, ahead of the boundary setting up in the area. Both of these
days could see gusts near 25-30 mph, mainly during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows diurnal CU across the area, pushing east with clearing
skies found across IL. A ridge of high pressure over IL will be
moving across Indiana during this period. This will result in
subsidence and dry air across the Taf sites. Forecast soundings
suggest a dry column. Thus diurnal CU is expected to dissipate
toward sunset leading to mostly clear skies overnight and only some
high passing CI will be expected on Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...KF/Updike