481
FXUS63 KIND 280507
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1207 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and dry through at least Friday evening, with wind chills
  well into the teens tonight and tomorrow night

- Winter Storm Watch Saturday through early Sunday with snow
  impacting travel Saturday

- Wind chills in the teens through much of early next week

- Additional chances for snow early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface analysis late this evening shows strong high pressure
centered over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending southeast
across MO and then east to KY. GOES19 shows clear skies across
southern Indiana, while cyclonic flow across the northeast parts of
Indiana was still allowing mid level stratocu to be present. Radar
shows some lake snow over far northern Indiana, but this was not
impacting Central Indiana. Gusty winds across the area have
subsided.

Overnight, the surface high pressure will continue to build east
into Indiana. as this occurs, clouds across the northern parts of
the forecast area are expected to exit as the lower level flow
becomes less cyclonic. This will lead to clear or clearing skies
through the night across the forecast area. Temperatures will remain
cold. Clouds across the northern parts of the forecast area may
insulate the surface for a next few hours, but as skies clear, all
temperatures will fall to the upper teens or around 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday night)...
Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cold Canadian high pressure will be the predominant feature across
the area throughout the vast majority of the short term period.

As the high traverses the area tomorrow into tomorrow evening and
the surface pressure gradient relaxes, breezy conditions will
finally relent, though this will only modestly improve the biting
early season chill in the air, with wind chills a few degrees warmer
Friday and Friday night than today and tonight.

Modest mixing will continue to promote gusts to around 20KT at times
through sunset, and sustained winds tonight will remain up a bit.
This will keep temperatures from completely bottoming out despite
the clearing, though lows will still likely drop to near 20 if not
the upper teens in spots.

Friday will be the "nicest" day of the holiday weekend, with some
thin mid and high cloud but plenty of sunshine despite the cold
highs in the low to mid 30s.

Friday night should be dry for the most part, with gradually
increasing clouds ahead of the incoming weekend winter system.
Models want to move some measurable precip into the area as early as
just before daybreak Saturday, but this is uncertain given the
magnitude of the low level dry layer that will take some time to
saturate in a top down manner. The more significant precipitation is
likely to hold off until the daytime hours.

Light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly Friday evening,
but the increasing cloud cover and the beginnings of very weak warm
advection should help to slow this drop late.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Saturday.

The main focus for the long term period will be tracking the
accumulating snow threat for Saturday. Synoptically, an upper level
shortwave will push southeast out of the Northern Rockies with weak
southeasterly surface flow ahead of the arrival of the low. As the
low nears, both surface and LLJ winds will begin to ramp up with the
strongest winds aloft expected during the evening hours. The low
track continues to look well to the northwest of central Indiana
with the main question being the strength of the WAA and its impacts
to surface temperatures and any warm nose aloft.

Basic pattern recognition continues to counterbalance model output
with the latest GFS/NAM runs bringing a broad 6-10 inches across the
state with the NAM coming in hottest in SW Indiana where QPF is
maximized. The positive snow depth change is much more modest at 4-6
inches which makes sense in a marginal thermodynamic situation as
temperatures will hover around freezing. Ahead of the arrival of
snow, temperatures will be well below freezing so there won`t be any
issues with snow accumulation initially but as the evening and early
overnight hours roll around, near to slightly above freezing
temperatures will help to lower snow ratios and lead to at least
some melting. The warm nose also looks to be underdone by the models
which could further help to lower snow ratios, especially across the
southern half of central Indiana.

Travel impacts look increasingly likely during the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday. It remains very uncertain on specific
snowfall totals, but a reasonable expectation at this time looks to
be 3-5 inches across north central Indiana with 2-4 towards
Indianapolis and around 1-3 in points to the south. There remains
the potential for both higher amounts anywhere in central Indiana
and an all-rain scenario across far southern portions of central
Indiana. Confidence in the higher end solution is higher than a
lower end scenario. Much of the impacts will be over a 6-8 hour
window beginning sometime in the late morning/early afternoon hours
with impacts lessening towards midnight as temperatures warm.

After consulting with neighbors, we`ve decided to issue a Winter
Storm Watch covering early Saturday morning through Sunday morning
with the understanding that some of the areas may not reach the
typical 5 inch snow criteria. With the holiday weekend travel and
the potential for the higher end amounts we feel confident in a
Winter Storm Warning being necessary for at least parts of central
Indiana and a Winter Weather Advisory likely for much of the rest of
not all of the rest. The area highlighted is where we are most
confident in the higher-end amounts.

Sunday Through Thursday.

Going into Sunday much cooler temperatures will quickly move in as
the low moves into the Great Lakes and much colder air pushes in on
the backside of the system. There will be at least some mid-level
forcing on the backside of the system which will bring the potential
for additional rain/snow chances through the day Sunday with some
signs of lingering flurries into Monday. Temperatures will then
remain below normal through Wednesday with another low-end chance
for additional snow Monday night into Tuesday while areas to the
south of central Indiana may see potential heavy rain. Wind chills
in the single digits are expected at times Tuesday and Wednesday
with the much below normal temperatures and breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1206 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Bulk of the stratocumulus will be east of the TAF sites at the start
of the period. Similarly, the bulk of the lake effect clouds will
remain east of the sites during the night. Will have a scattered
layer where needed.

Sky cover will be minimal during the day Friday, but then some mid
and high clouds will move in Friday evening.

Winds of 10-15kt will slowly diminish during the day Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50