948
FXUS63 KIND 020142
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
942 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers or sprinkles into the early overnight mainly
  across southern portions of central Indiana

- Dry weather expected Sunday through at least Thursday...amid
  seasonably cool temperatures

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally
evolving as expected. The main forecast challenge for the remainder
of the night will be tracking rain chances associated with a low
pressure system over southern Missouri. No changes really needed to
the POPs with the scattered light rain wording matching well with
the expectation of periodic sprinkles/light rain through the
remainder of the night. Dry air will slowly move into the
northwestern counties towards daybreak which should allow for some
sub-freezing temperatures along with the potential for some patchy
fog in the river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad cyclonic flow
across Indiana. This was extending from a deep area of low pressure
northeast of New England. This broad cyclonic flow extended across
much of the northeastern quarter of the United States. Strong High
pressure was found over the high plains and another area of high
pressure was found over the southeastern states. Aloft, an upper
level low was found over SE IA, along with a deep and trough through
the Mississippi Valley. This feature was spreading scattered light
rain showers over southern MO and southern Illinois. Dew points
across Central Indiana were mainly in the 30s as dry air remained in
place at the surface.

Tonight...

The models suggest the upper low over SE IA will continue to dive
SE, reaching southern IL late tonight. This will allow the clouds
and precipitation ahead of the low to spread eastward. Clouds will
engulf Indiana tonight while the precipitation should remain across
southern Indiana. Several past runs of the HRRR suggest very light
to minimal precip brushing across the southern parts of the forecast
area, and minimal pops will be needed there. Otherwise, forecast
soundings show good saturation this evening and into the early
overnight hours, particularly within the lower levels where MVFR
cigs appear to be present overnight with the low passing to the
south. Thus will trend toward a mostly cloudy sky, but given the
lower level saturation and weak forcing, some non-measureable
drizzle or sprinkles will be possible along and near an I-74
corridor. Overnight lows will fall to upper 30s to around 40.

Sunday...

Models show the upper low continuing to push southeast, crossing
into Central TN through the course of the day. In the wake of the
low strong ridging aloft is show to develop across IA and WI, and
begin to sag southward toward Indiana. As the low departs our area,
mid levels also show the arrival of drying within the mid levels
late tonight and continuing through Sunday. Forecast sounding trend
toward a dry column during the afternoon, indicating a decreasing
cloudiness type of day. Meanwhile at the surface, an elongated area
of high pressure stretching from IL to TX will be building eastward
toward Indiana. Thus a decreasing cloudiness type forecast will be
used. Highs will reach the lower 50s as there will be little overall
change in the air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Zonal pattern to prevail next week, providing mainly dry conditions
with near to slightly above normal temperatures.  An embedded short
wave will cross the Great Lakes Wednesday, dragging its weaker cold
front through the Midwest.  A polar vort max plunging within Ontario
Friday will phase with a trough crossing the central CONUS to
produce a more amplified system whose approaching cold front could
bring a convective threat to the local region to end the workweek.
Long term will likely end with a more amplified upper pattern
typical of November.

Specifically for central Indiana, rain-free conditions will be the
rule through Thursday, with the mid-week front being pushed by
weaker forcing and having barely 0.50 inches of precipitable
water in the column to work with...although suspect a few robust
wind gusts while flow veers through westerly directions.  The late
week system will have a better set-up of broad/amplified surface
high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard promoting 1-2 periods of
moderate to robust return flow, although doubt dewpoints exceed the
mid-50s and ensembles indicate lower confidence on better forcing
this far south.

Temperatures will fairly consistently reach the low to mid-60s. Lows
often around the mid-30s...with a couple milder overnights amid WAA
and clouds ahead of the frontal boundaries for both Tuesday night
and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs at BMG 07Z to 15Z
-MVFR to IFR vsbys at HUF/LAF 11Z to 13Z due to fog
-Occasional light rain at BMG through 12Z

Discussion:

Cigs are expected to gradually fall through the night but remain VFR
outside of BMG where MVFR cigs are likely. There may be a few light
showers at BMG through daybreak tomorrow, but vsbys will remain VFR.
Additional vsby restrictions are possible towards daybreak with
patchy fog. Confidence in fog is highest at LAF and HUF with lower
chances at BMG and IND. Winds are expected to be light and variable
through the TAF period with a predominately westerly direction
through 06Z and then more northeasterly through the remainder of the
TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...White