830
FXUS63 KIND 121919
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
319 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely late Saturday, with severe
  weather possible Saturday night into Sunday.

- Much cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s.

- Unsettled weather with near normal temperatures next Tues-Thurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Forecast is quiet as high pressure builds eastward from the MS
valley into the OH Valley. Winds will become light and variable this
evening as a result. Mostly clear skies along with mild temperatures
and dry air with dewpoints mainly in the 50s will make star gazing
in rural areas exceptionally good tonight.

Saturday...

Convection tonight over the central Plains will move
into the Ozarks by Saturday morning. An associated MCV will move
into the Lower OH valley early-mid afternoon. Expectation is that
mid level clouds and light precip will overspread roughly the
southern half of central Indiana during the afternoon associated
with this system. Surface front presently becoming stationary over
KY will begin to lift northward in response to pressure falls
associated with departing high pressure as well the approaching MCV.
Forecast soundings show just enough instability /MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/ to warrant TS over far SW portions of the forecast area, so
have added low chances for that during the afternoon.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

A second stronger shortwave will push SE across the northern plains
into the upper Midwest Saturday Night. An associated cold front will
reach a line from DTW to OKC by 12Z Sunday. Thunderstorms are
expected to be numerous forming longer lines to the west of central
Indiana Saturday afternoon along the frontal boundary. Activity
moves into central Indiana generally after 04Z Sunday with
relatively meager instability to work with MUCAPE from 1000-1400
J/KG. Given the timing and lack of stronger instability the updated
Day 2 outlook taking the Slight Risk out of central Indiana seems
prudent. Main severe threat with any storms will be damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph, and possibly large hail, but with weakening mid
level flow with eastward extent and consequently weakening EBS to
under 30 kts, the hail threat looks very marginal.

The surface front is expected to cross central Indiana during the
day. The GFS is more of an outlier showing the front crossing dry
during the afternoon. A result of overnight/early morning convection
will be to stabilize much of the boundary layer. Questions remains
as to how much if any storms develop along the front namely along
and SE of I-69 during the early afternoon as the BL destabilizes. If
storms can develop as the Euro and NAM suggests, there is a small
risk of severe weather given stronger deep layer shear. Threat for
storms/severe will be done by 20Z as the front shift east into
KY/OH.

Sunday night into Monday...

Pleasant late Spring weather will develop across central Indiana in
the wake of the frontal boundary with temperatures below normal with
highs 70-75 and lows in the mid-upper 50s.

Tuesday through Friday....

Another unsettled period should unfold as several weak shortwave
moves SE along the broader long wave trough centered near Hudson`s
Bay Canada. Timing of threat for showers and storms during this
period is tenuous at best and recent NBM highlighting 80 POPs for
Wednesday evening is very aggressive.

Despite the uncertainties in timing precip during the extended,
temps should remain near seasonal norms with no indication of
another heatwave next week. In fact, model consensus shows that
another front is expected late week with temperatures returning to
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty W-NW winds this afternoon from 15-20 kts

Discussion:

VFR Conditions through the period. Mostly clear skies presently
across central Indiana thanks to the high pressure building into the
region from the NW. Deeper mixing than earlier forecast has allowed
for wind gusts from the W-NW from 15-20 kts to develop in the last
hour. Have included gusts except for KBMG through 23Z.

Overnight as high pressure builds into central Indiana, winds will
become light and variable. Skies also be clear. Increasing high and
eventually mid level clouds will occur on Saturday ahead of a storm
system over the plains moving towards the MS valley. A few light
showers out of a mid deck of clouds are expected around KIND during
the mid-late afternoon. So have included VCSH for this reason.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Crosbie