211
FXUS63 KIND 211321
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
921 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range this afternoon

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday

- Rain chances again Friday into Saturday and early next week

- Above normal temperatures through early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made.
Latest surface analysis depicts surface high pressure centered near
the Mid-Atlantic while surface ridging extends into the Ohio Valley.
This will provide quiet weather through the day. That said, windy
conditions are expected into the afternoon hours due to a
strengthening MSLP gradient between the surface high and an
approaching weak low pressure system from the northwest. Increasing
diurnal mixing will also help promote stronger southwesterly gusts
up to 35 mph. A few gusts near 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Look
for southwesterly flow to warm temperatures well into the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Today...

Breezy conditions are expected today across central Indiana. A
relatively tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the
southeast and low pressure to the northwest will increase sustained
winds. At the same time, mixing will tap into some stronger winds
aloft. This will produce gusts into the 30 to 35 mph range, with
some gusts near 40 mph possible.

The mixing will also bring dewpoints down, even with moisture trying
to advect in from the southwest. Went closer to the 25th percentile
of guidance for dewpoints this afternoon. Minimum humidity will be
in the 20 to 30 percent range. Fortunately, fuels are moist enough
that no significant fire danger is expected.

The gusty southwest winds combined with sunshine (filtering through
high clouds at times) will boost temperatures into the middle 70s
for highs.

Convection forming north of central Indiana should remain north of
the area through the day.

Tonight through Thursday...

An upper wave and a cold front will be the forcing for the
thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon. Forcing will move
ahead of the cold front, allowing some convection to move south into
central Indiana tonight. Moisture isn`t great, and surface dewpoints
will only be in the 40s and 50s.

Thus, instability doesn`t look great for the convection. Shear isn`t
good either. However, stronger winds won`t be far off the ground,
with 40 plus knots starting about 3000ft off the ground per forecast
soundings. With an inverted V sounding, wouldn`t be surprised if a
few storms have 40-50mph gusts, with a very low chance for a severe
gust. Small hail is also possible.

With the limited moisture, feel coverage will be more scattered than
numerous. Kept PoPs below the likely category.

The surface front will briefly stall out in the vicinity Wednesday
before returning north. With little upper support, just kept some
low PoPs around during Wednesday. Brief upper ridging will build in
for Thursday, providing dry conditions.

Depending on where the front ends up Wednesday, there could be some
clouds/fog around in the morning.

Highs will remain warm, reaching around 80 by Thursday.

Friday and beyond...

Upper energy coming out of an upper trough to the west will work
with a cold front to bring some showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Weak forcing could keep lower coverage of rain on Saturday. Ridging
will bring dry conditions Sunday, but rain could return early next
week with another stronger upper trough. Temperatures look to remain
above normal.

However, confidence remains low for Saturday into early next week
with guidance differing on the details of how things will evolve.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 627 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Impacts:

- Marginal LLWS at all terminals continues this morning
- Southwest wind gusts 25-30kt this afternoon
- Scattered convection this evening into the overnight

Discussion:

Marginal LLWS conditions early will end as mixing kicks in during
the day, and this mixing will allow for gusty winds up to 30kt or
so. Gustiness will diminish early evening, but LLWS should return
overnight tonight.

Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected. High clouds
at times will give way to mid clouds late day into the night.
Scattered convection will move in from the north mainly after 00Z
Wednesday, and these will spread south through the night.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50