744
FXUS63 KIND 120144
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
944 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry Sunday with much warmer air returning

- Chances for rain and storms returns next week, with the potential
  for severe weather focused on Tuesday and Wednesday

- Warm temperatures expected all next week with multiple days in the
  lower to mid 80s

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Light winds out of the east-southeast are expected to continue
overnight before increasing quickly after sunrise. Wind gusts on
Sunday may top out between 25-30kt at times as the MSLP gradient
tightens due to a system passing well to our north. Mid to high-
level cloud cover will be present at times through the next 24
hours. Despite light winds and relatively thin clouds tonight,
ongoing warm air advection should help keep lows in the 50s.

Winds gradually become southerly tonight into Sunday morning while
increasing. This should intensify warm air advection and allow
temperatures to rise quickly Sunday morning and afternoon. Though
clouds may be present, they should be thin enough to promote
efficient solar insolation and boundary layer mixing. Highs in the
80s are likely tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Sunday...

Clouds will continue to increase this afternoon, and temperatures
will peak a little above normal. Tonight, high pressure will slide
off to the northeast. This will allow a warm front to move across
the area.

There won`t be much upper support for forcing with the warm front,
especially with upper ridging nudging into the area. Also, overall
moisture is lacking. Light showers over Missouri will likely dry up
before reaching central Indiana due to this lack of moisture. Will
continue with a dry forecast tonight into Sunday morning, but
wouldn`t be surprised if a few sprinkles came out of mid clouds
across the far northwest overnight.

On Sunday, the pressure gradient will tighten up and stronger winds
aloft will mix down some. This will result in a breezy day with wind
gusts up to around 30 mph. The gusty southwest winds will usher
warmer air into the area, with highs topping out from around 80 to
the lower 80s.

Sunday night through Monday night...

An upper wave will move through southwest flow aloft, bringing a
round of forcing to central Indiana. Moisture will have increased
across the area with the southwest flow aloft and at the surface.
This will be enough to produce scattered to perhaps numerous showers
later Sunday night into Monday morning. Best forcing will remain
northwest of the area, closer to the upper wave itself. Some low
instability will allow for a few non-severe thunderstorms.

Rain chances will diminish Monday afternoon as the wave exits.
Clouds will decrease, allowing temperatures to peak in the upper 70s
to around 80.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this period. Locally heavy rain is possible, especially around
Wednesday.

Upper waves moving in southwest flow between upper troughing to the
west and upper ridging across the southeast USA will generate
thunderstorms to the west of the area. These storms may impact
central Indiana Tuesday and Wednesday. With a warm and moist airmass
in place, severe thunderstorms may occur, especially west and north
closer to a surface front. Will continue to monitor trends for
better clarity in timing and location.

An upper trough will move northeast through the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing more chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty remains high on any severe threat though. This wave will
bring the surface front closer to the area, but it should remain
west and north.

Uncertainty increases for the end of the period with guidance having
different ideas on how the next upper trough exits the western USA.
This will have impacts on the timing of forcing and of the surface
front moving through.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the period, with
near record highs possible on Tuesday depending on sky cover and any
showers or storms. Saturday could be closer to normal if the cold
front moves through by then.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts over 25kt Sunday afternoon
- LLWS developing after 02z Monday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Mainly high clouds are expected, with some mid clouds at times.
Winds will gradually veer to the south/southwest by 12Z Sunday.
Speeds will increase during Sunday, and gusts over 25kt will develop
late morning/early afternoon and continue through the afternoon.

A low-level jet intensifies Sunday evening to between 50-60kt at
around 3000ft agl. With surface stabilization causing winds at
ground level to diminish, a period of low-level wind shear between
40-50kt is anticipated after 02z Monday.

Rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, are possible Monday
morning just beyond the end of the current TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...50