059
FXUS63 KIND 110839
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
339 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph at times

- Scattered snow showers this morning

- Scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday...with
  flurries and occasional snow showers late Wednesday-Friday

- Trend into dry yet colder conditions this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Upper-level water vapor imagery shows a well-defined vort max
moving southeastward across northern Illinois. A cold front passed
through ahead of it, roughly around midnight. Temperatures have
dropped into the 20s following a period of light to moderate
snowfall. Amounts upwards of an inch were reported near the Illinois
Indiana state line, with lesser totals further south and east.
Continued snow shower activity is likely as the cold unstable core
of the vort max passes overhead. Snow shower activity diminishes
around 14z as the vort max center passes east into Ohio. A few lake-
enhanced snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan may persist a bit
longer across northern Indiana. Some of these may reach as far south
as Muncie and points northeast.

Winds remain brisk through the morning hours and into the afternoon.
Surface low pressure to our northeast and high pressure rapidly
approaching from the southwest should promote a tight MSLP gradient.
West-northwesterly winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30kt are
possible at times. Winds rapidly diminish this evening as the high
builds in. The high center looks to pass just to our south, however,
so a period of calm wind is not likely. Instead, winds quickly
become west-southwesterly while increasing ahead of an upstream
system passing over the Great Lakes. Winds may once again gust
upwards of 20-25kt by Monday morning.

Temperatures likely reach near or just above freezing today, with
the coldest readings across locations that saw measurable snow
overnight. Persistent low stratus and wind should help keep
temperatures fairly steady for the most part. A period of clearing
is possible this evening, which may allow for a few hours of good
radiational cooling potential. As such, lows overnight drop into the
20s early before increasing winds and clouds level things off.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

This week will be overall seasonal as temperatures trend from
briefly mild into Tuesday...to near to slightly below normal
Wednesday night into the weekend.  A day of transition Wednesday
will feature scattered showers changing from rain to snow, with
additional flurries/snow showers into the weekend.

Broad polar trough over mush of central/eastern North America will
drag its more-zonal southern periphery over the Midwest through the
early workweek.  Moderate gradient between surface high well to our
south and seasonably strong low pressure crossing the northern Great
Lakes will provide robust southwesterly breezes gusting up to 20-30
mph both Monday and Tuesday...returning temperatures from the mid-
20s early Monday to around 50F later on Tuesday.  At time ample sun
Monday will shift to increasing cloudiness Tuesday ahead of the next
wave.

Wednesday`s colder transition will be accompanied by overall lighter
precipitation that may occur as two-parts...following plunging polar
surface high pressure that will guide the amplification of the
corresponding H500 trough southward from the Twin Cities to the TN
Valley. Increasing coverage of rain showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday will oversee winds increasing while veering to northwest.
A secondary flux of snow showers around the late Wednesday to
Wednesday night timeframe will have the potential for a rather brief
burst should forcing cross over southern Lake Michigan...with any
isolated stronger snow showers most likely west of I-65 given near-
northerly headings through the boundary layer.

Lowest wind chills of the long term expected for early Thursday as
hyper-amplified polar ridge builds east across the Mississippi
Valley into Indiana...allowing likely partial clearing, readings
below 20F and lingering moderate breezes...yielding wind chills as
low as the single digits.  Temperatures will struggle to exceed
seasonably chilly levels with any southwesterly breezes still
advecting out of the dome`s cold axis well to our south.  Flurries
and a few snow showers to continue through much of the late work
week with mositure-starved low levels beneath disturbed mid-level
pattern.  Outlook into weekend favors dry yet colder conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Impacts:

- Snow showers overnight, brief reductions in visibility possible
- MVFR ceilings return tonight through most of Sunday
- WNW gusts to 25-30kt through midday Sunday

Discussion:

A cold front is moving through Indiana with light to at times
moderate snowfall. Snow has been heaviest immediately along the
front, though scattered light snow showers persist behind it across
Illinois. Continued snow shower activity is possible into the
morning hours Sunday. Brief reductions in visibility are possible,
especially near the start of the TAF period.

Regardless, MVFR ceilings are expected to be widespread tonight into
the day Sunday. Clouds may persist well into the afternoon hours,
with VFR conditions returning around or a bit after sunset. An
increase in mid-level clouds is anticipated around 00z.

West-northwesterly winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30kt will be the
prevailing wind through about 18z. After that, winds diminish
quickly and become west-southwesterly. WSW winds increase after 00z
to around 10kt.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Eckhoff