720
FXUS63 KIND 241705
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1205 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog and drizzle expected tonight with the potential for dense
  fog

- Well above normal temperatures into the weekend with returning
  Thursday night

- Transition back to much colder conditions next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

With conditions improving across central Indiana, the Dense Fog
Advisory was allowed to expire at 14Z. Non-dense fog persists across
central Indiana but as temperatures begin to warm, any remaining 4-6
mile fog will dissipate. Overall the forecast is on track with
temperatures in the mid 30s with highs in the 50s with plenty of sun
through the early afternoon. The thicker clouds will arrive towards
the afternoon which will help to stifle the temperature warmth.
Surface winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range with a more
southerly component towards the late afternoon.

Focus then will shift to the likely return to fog tonight. Will
continue to look over the morning model runs, but confidence is
increasing in at least a combination of drizzle and non-dense fog
with cloud bases near the surface with the main remaining question
being the extent of dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

*Dense Fog Advisory* in effect for southern and east-central central
Indiana into this morning... Patchy areas of dense fog to continue
through pre-dawn hours amid weakening cold air advection...with
quick drops in visibility when driving near rivers, creeks, and low-
lying areas.

Broad subtropical upper ridge established over much of the southern
CONUS will continue to attempt to build farther northward through
the short term, while a weakness rides along its northern gradient
from the Chicagoland area to the eastern Midwest tonight.  Clouds to
break through several midday hours as light breezes veer through
easterly headings under the edge of surface high pressure quickly
passing to our north.

Clouds to thicken and ceiling to fall rather quickly from SW to NE
within late day/early evening timeframe ahead of approaching
weakness, with drizzle/mist, fog, and probably at times embedded
scattered rain showers through most of the overnight.  Decreasing
winds this evening will once again promote areas of fog, especially
from late evening on.  Low confidence in any appreciable rainfall
totals tonight, but can not rule out isolated 0.20 to 0.25 inch
totals, especially over northeast zones which will be closer to the
passing, albeit weak forcing.  Temperatures to exhibit modest range
from mainly 50s today to 45-55F tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Christmas Day through Sunday...

Unseasonably mild days and overnights will continue through most of
the weekend, including occasionally damp conditions through Friday.
Subtropical ridge will attempt to build north into the central CONUS
while a couple embedded ridge-riding waves prevent the region from
exceeding the 65 degree mark most days...and also provide drizzle
and and scattered showers over much of the region later Christmas
night through Friday morning.  Overall lighter breezes will include
steadier flow accompanying the rain chances through all AM hours of
Friday, with gusts up to 15-20 mph veering from southeast to west.

Periods of fog will likely be the greatest impact, from visibility
reductions lingering from the short term into much of CHristmas
morning...and also Friday evening when partial clearing and light
winds will favor patchy fog in low-lying and better exposed areas.
Temperatures to start the long term will trend from generally 50s to
low 60s under clouds on Christmas...to mainly mid-50s to mid-60s
Friday and Saturday...before a transitional day Sunday when a strong
cold front will likely cross the region.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...

Strong arctic cold front to cross the Midwest through the late
weekend, ahead of large, amplified 1040 mb surface high pressure
plunging through the North American Plains.  Increasing confidence
in very cold overnights, with subfreezing conditions perhaps lasting
through the final periods of 2025 for at least northern zones...
courtesy of the dome likely slowly advancing farther south from
Oklahoma to the Gulf coast around Tuesday.

Robust northwesterly gusts late this weekend through Monday...and
then more moderated flow backing through westerly headings as the
high passes southward to our west...along with temperatures ranging
within the teens to 20s most days...will make for wind chill values
most often in the negative 5 to 15 degree range... with Advisory
criteria wind chills possibly on the table early Monday for the
region`s typical colder spots.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Impacts:

-LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vsbys tonight, mainly after 06Z
-IFR conditions persist after 14Z through much of tomorrow

Discussion:

Areas of fog tonight with periods of dense fog will bring LIFR to
VLIFR conditions to much of central Indiana. Confidence in these
conditions is highest at LAF with periods of drizzle also expected
through much of the night. These conditions are likely to continue
through at least 12Z with some improvement towards 14Z. IFR cigs
will stick around through much of the day with the potential to
persist all the way through tomorrow night. Winds will generally
remain southeasterly today at 8-12kts before becoming light and
variable after 06Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...White