578
FXUS63 KIND 261044
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
644 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely through 7am this morning

- Record temperatures in the lower 80s are expected by this
  afternoon with wind gusts up to 35 mph

- A round of strong to severe storms are expected this evening into
  tonight, all hazards are possible

- Cooler on Friday, with a warming trend resuming over the weekend

- Active pattern may develop first week of April

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Latest KIND radar imagery shows increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. This is associated with increasing
isentropic ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level wave approaching and
an advancing warm front. Weak instability will keep thunderstorms
sub-severe, but increasing effective shear and sufficient elevated
instability may be enough to support small hail in any stronger
storms. These storms will move out of the forecast area by daybreak
once the associated shortwave departs.

The primary concern in the near term is the severe weather threat
later this evening into tonight. Initially, a capping inversion will
likely limit any potential for convection through much of the day.
Forecast soundings depict deep mixing up to around 850mb with a
capping inversion just above that layer supporting a dry forecast.
The deep mixing will promote strong southwesterly wind gusts up to
35 mph and near record temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

A weak surface low is expected to develop near central portions of
Iowa later today before tracking east along the aforementioned warm
front stretching from Iowa to northern portions of IN/OH. This along
with daytime heating and moisture advection will allow for numerous
thunderstorms to develop by the evening hours near northern Indiana,
primarily near the front where the strongest low-level convergence
will be.

Dewpoints in the low 60s and near record warmth will promote
moderate instability by the evening hours. This combined with strong
effective bulk shear of 45-50+ kt supports supercells capable of all
hazards. The tornado threat still exist with any supercells that are
able to stay ahead of a cold front advancing southward. Forecast
soundings depict low-level veering hodographs with strong deep-layer
shear supporting the threat, but relatively high LCLs may limit the
overall tornado risk slightly. Any storms undercut by the cold front
will also quickly become elevated. Initial discrete supercells could
produce very large hail given the favorable parameters and around 70
kt of anvil level flow.

Shear vector orientations roughly parallel to the frontal boundary
and strong frontal forcing is expected to result in eventual upscale
growth. The damaging wind threat will increase while the threat for
large hail decreases once this occurs. Some tornado threat may still
exist along the squall line. Look for the severe weather threat to
extend into the overnight hours, but limited low-level theta-e
advection should allow for instability and the overall severe threat
to gradually diminish.

There is also a flooding threat as most guidance shows training
storms along the west to east oriented cold front which will slowly
push south. A swath of rain between 1 to 3 inches appears likely
with locally higher amounts possible across portions of central
IN. High resolution guidance still shows slight disagreement on
exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Anomalous ridging continues to dominate the synoptic pattern over
the CONUS. Low-amplitude troughing persists over the northeastern US
and eastern Canada. Wedged between these two dominant features,
Indiana`s weather will be influenced strongly by progressive
northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern has been in place for a
while, and has been defined by warmer-than-average temperatures
interrupted by brief but potent cold fronts.

Fast-moving, relatively weak surface low pressure zips by well to
our north this afternoon. This feature will drive a strong cold
front southward after it passes to our northeast tonight.
Another significant cool-down is expected tomorrow with highs back
into the 40s/50s. As with previous iterations of this pattern, the
cool-down is short-lived and a warming trend begins again over the
weekend. Temperatures may once again push into the 70s early next
week.

Furthermore, ensembles are hinting at an active weather pattern
taking shape during the first week of April. Guidance is trending
towards the western ridge gradually shifting eastward with time,
ending up somewhere over the southeastern US. Troughing in turn
develops over the western US. The flow pattern aloft over Indiana
becomes southwesterly in response. Such a pattern is favorable for
above-average temperatures and precipitation as moisture streaming
northward from the Gulf interacts with energy ejecting from the
predominate western trough.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Impacts:

- Showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible through 11-12Z today
  near IND/BMG

- Peak wind gusts at 25 to 33 kt this afternoon

- Intense convection will impact the terminals after 22Z today,
primarily at LAF/IND initially before shifting south and gradually
weakening

Discussion:

A few lingering showers or an isolated thunderstorm may impact
IND/BMG through 11-12Z today. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for
much of the day with peak wind gusts between 25 to 33 kt. Robust
convective development is expected along a cold front across the
lower Great Lakes by this evening. Look for storms to push south
into central Indiana during the evening and overnight.

Primarily LAF/IND will be impacted first with initial storms. The
storms should eventually congeal into a line and shift south during
the overnight, impacting the remaining sites. MVFR ceilings are
likely tonight into early Friday morning. A wind shift from SW to NE
will also occur as the cold front pushes through overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Melo