927
FXUS63 KIND 141052
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
552 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues with highs in the 60s to near 70 today and
widespread highs in the low 70s on Saturday

- Low rain chances late Saturday through early Sunday

- Slightly cooler, but seasonable temperatures early next week along
with better chances for rain late Monday into Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

The short term will start off with ridging aloft with high pressure
at the surface leading to warm but relatively quiet weather through
tonight. CAMs have backed off on the chance for light rain this
morning but still a non-zero chance of precipitation within lower
clouds forming and pushing in from the west early this morning. This
lower deck of clouds will continue to push eastward through the
day, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.

The surface high will also drift southeastward through the period
while the leading edge of a surface front will begin to push in from
the NE tonight. While precipitation chances from the front won`t
reach the area by daybreak tomorrow, increased cloud coverage ahead
of it will arrive tonight. Pressure gradients aloft will also
tighten some between these two systems so expect winds to pick up
some this afternoon and more so overnight when gusts of 20-25 mph
will be possible.

WAA and moisture advection from the SW flow in place will lead to
highs in the 60s to near 70 today while dew points gradually
increase over the next 24+ hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Saturday Through Monday.

Much warmer than normal conditions will continue into Saturday with
strong southwesterly surface flow helping to bring dew points into
the upper 50s. This seasonable humid airmass will interact with a
weak upper level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes
region to bring isolated showers, mainly during the overnight hours
into Sunday. Confidence in these showers is highest across the
northeastern counties but at a minimum, mostly cloudy skies will
impact much if not all of central Indiana.

Cooler air is expected to move in beginning Sunday with the surface
flow becoming northwesterly. There is some model differences as to
how strong the exiting trough will be as it moves into the
Northeastern states which will impact the strength of the CAA and
resulting temperature drop. Generally models are honing in on the
stronger low solution which could bring northwesterly gusts up to 25
mph and temperatures in the low 50s along with dry conditions.

Tuesday Through Thursday.

Confidence in the forecast then begins to fall going into early next
week with a wide range in model solutions of a low pressure system
moving to the east into the Ohio Valley and how it may interact with
a surge of Gulf moisture. The Euro continues to be the most
consistent model among major global models with a closed low
transitioning into a broader trough with rain impacting central
Indiana late Monday night into Tuesday.

The latest GFS and Canadian runs are a bit more progressive with
rainfall as early as Monday evening, but feel these are overdoing
the forcing ahead of the low. There may be some lingering
drizzle/low clouds in the aftermath of the system, but otherwise
quiet and dry conditions should dominate the forecast through at
least late Wednesday with the next potential system moving in
towards the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 551 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Impacts:

-Southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25kts after 10Z Saturday

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with a broken cloud
deck between 050 and 080 gradually dissipating towards 14Z leaving
behind some sporadic diurnal cu. This cu will dissipate after sunset
with mostly clear skies for much of the night before additional mid
level clouds arrive towards Saturday morning. Winds will generally
remain southerly through today at 8-12kts with a few gusts up to
20kts possible. Winds will then become more southwesterly towards
10Z Saturday morning with gusts of 20-25kts by mid-morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White