627
FXUS63 KIND 101900
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight into Wednesday, which
  will exacerbate or prolong ongoing flooding

- Scattered severe storms with all hazards are possible tonight and
  Wednesday

- Record warmth today but cooler temperatures expected Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Through 6PM:

Warm air advection has induced pressure rises over the
eastern Ohio Valley, with a resulting status layer draped across the
region. This has begun to erode some as a EML pushed eastward into
southwest portions of Indiana. This should lead to broken sky cover
progressing through a majority of the stratus deck throughout the
afternoon. SW portions of the state are likely to mixout first and
therefore may see slightly higher afternoon temperatures versus the
rest of central Indiana. It`s still not impossible to break the 74F
daily maximum temperature, but we will need to clear out quickly in
order to reach this before peak heating ends.

The 12Z suite of high resolution models continues to show central
Indiana capped in the otherwise buoyant warm sector keeping central
Indiana rain free through 6PM.


6PM to 10PM Severe Threat:

A deep wave will continue its push eastward, with a split jet streak
currently across the mid and upper Mississippi Valleys. This
split jet stream is leading to a modest surface low, with
confluence zones creating an instability gradient over central
Illinois and NW Indiana. This will be the main focus for initiation
this afternoon as the remainder of the warm sector will remain too
capped and cloudy for broad synoptic rising motion to be sufficient
for initiation.

The parameter spacing near this W/E boundary will be rather potent
with steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient low level lapse
rates with high levels of moisture. This will create a corridor of
150 J/kg of 3CAPE along with a very elongated and veered low level
hodograph early this evening over N/NE IL and NW Indiana. All severe
weather threats will be possible, with hail and strong tornadoes as
the main threat. The current expectation is for these supercells to
remain north of our CWA, but with still some boundary variance and
the potential for right turning cells, we cannot rule out this
threat for our far NW locations including Lafayette, Delphi and
Kokomo.


12AM to 12PM (WED) Severe Threat:

The primary threat for central Indiana will be tonight as the
aforementioned low nears and greater moisture advection within a
strengthening LLJ leads to widespread initiation of showers and
thunderstorms. The afternoon and evening thunderstorms over IL and N
IN will likely also induce deep cold pools as well, creating a
tricky severe and flooding forecast for central Indiana. The
emergence of the strong LLJ is still creating a wide area of
destabilized air with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. This along with
effective shear of 40+kt will be plenty for clusters of
thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The tornado threat does not look as high as the 6PM-10PM
threat, but the strong LLJ is still leading to a broad area of 150
m2/s2 of 0-1km helicity, of which could lead to isolated tornadoes
throughout the night.

Also of note will be the potential for a narrow corridor of 2-3" of
rain along a stalled cold pool near and north of I-70 between 4AM
and 10AM tomorrow. This could lead to areas of stream/street
flooding along with isolated pockets of flash flooding throughout
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The long term period will see a somewhat active pattern as a general
upper troughing pattern will be overhead with multiple more
amplified waves pass through. This will also lead to a variety of
temperatures through the period and a few chances of precipitation.

Behind the low pressure system tomorrow, cooler temperatures will
briefly settle in for Wednesday night through Thursday. Surface high
pressure will allow temperatures to trend warmer from the end of the
week to Sunday as well as expected dry conditions aside from the far
north being brushed with the potential for rain due to a short wave
to the north. The short wave will likely bring gusty conditions
Friday as well. The main event for the long term will be a surface
low pressure system and associated strong cold front moving through
central Indiana Sunday into Monday. WAA will likely allow for highs
Sunday in the 60s but by Sunday night, temps should drop into the
20s and possibly teens followed by highs for the start of the new
week in the 20s to 30s. The front will also bring a good chance of
breezy conditions and precipitation for this timeframe mainly for
the latter part of the day Sunday through Monday morning. For this
being an event several days out, models are in good agreement for
general timing but still unclear for exact location and strength of
the low, thus details on impacts and precip amounts are unclear at
this time. For p-type, there is good confidence that it will start
out as rain and should have snow mix in overnight before likely
ending as all snow which could impact Monday morning commute next
week. Winter isn`t quite over yet for our area.

Beyond the long term, near normal to slightly below normal temps
should stick around for at least the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR through 22Z
- MVFR returning after 06Z with showers and thunderstorms
- Periodic wind gusts peaking at around 30kt this evening through
most of tomorrow.

Discussion:

Stratus encompasses much of central Indiana early this afternoon,
but should start to break down some over the next 3-6 hours. By 22Z,
SCT decks around 2000ft are expected, but pockets of BKN may still
be possible. Convection will fire to the northwest of the region
late today and spread east into northern Indiana this evening. There
remains a possibility that storms may make it as far south as KLAF
mid to late evening but overall confidence is growing in convective
impacts at the terminals holding off until late tonight continuing
into Wednesday morning.

S/SW winds will continue through tonight with peak gusts at around
25kts this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Updike