859
FXUS63 KIND 260333
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1133 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible later Wednesday afternoon
  into Thursday

- Some severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening

- Dry weather returns for late week into the weekend

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Tonight...

Quiet weather will continue through the period, with surface high
pressure in control. Scattered cumulus will dissipate this evening,
but there will be some increase in high and perhaps mid level clouds
by morning.

The weak lift ahead of an approaching trough that will increase the
cloudiness overnight will also try to bring some light showers to
the northwest portion of the area toward sunrise. The lower
atmosphere should remain dry enough to evaporate any rain that
forms, so will continue a dry forecast.

Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

The initial round of high and mid clouds and potential virga will
move across the area early Wednesday. An upper trough and surface
cold front will move into the area through Wednesday night. Best
forcing will remain north of the area closer to better upper energy.

Advection on the west side of the surface high will bring in upper
60s to around 70 degree dewpoints. With highs in the 80s, decent
instability will build. Shear will increase as the upper trough
moves in, especially north.

The combination of these will lead to a severe weather threat mainly
400 PM to Midnight. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats, but with the higher shear north, isolated tornadoes
will be possible in the northern third or so of the forecast area.

With the best forcing north of the area, will keep PoPs in the
chance category and used scattered coverage wording.

Coverage will diminish Wednesday night as the front sags south and
instability diminishes.

Thursday...

The front will linger in the southern forecast area, so will keep
some lower PoPs there. Decent shear/instability looks to remain east
of the area, so not expecting any severe weather on Thursday. Highs
will be in the lower to middle 80s.

Friday and beyond...

An upper ridge will push its way into central Indiana for much of
this period. The result will be warming temperatures, with highs in
the middle 80s to lower 90s common by Sunday. Heat indices will
rise into the lower to middle 90s early next week.

The ridge should keep the area dry through the day Monday.
Uncertainty on how the upper pattern evolves leads to some low PoPs
for Tuesday, but confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Impacts:

- Low probability ground fog early this morning at outlying
terminals; Mainly VFR
- Scattered thunderstorms late in the TAF period

Discussion:

Surface high pressure over eastern OH was extending a ridge across
Indiana into Illinois. GOES19 shows some high and thin CI over
Central Indiana and IL.

Overnight, diurnal fog formation will be possible with low dew point
depressions and light winds. However cloud cover and warm air
advection aloft, may prevent this. confidence is low.

CU development is expected on Wednesday afternoon as a cold front
approaches. HRRR suggests a thin line of showers and storms near the
front, passing during Wednesday evening. Thus have included pop30 at
this point due to low confidence in precise timing.

MVFR conditions or worse with wind gusts are possible during any
thunderstorm.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...50