823
FXUS63 KIND 230648
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
248 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and comfortable through midweek

- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night into the first half
  of the weekend

- Hot and humid conditions increasingly likely by early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Skies have cleared early this morning as high pressure settles in
across the region. 06Z temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to lower
60s.

A much needed respite from the recent active weather is expected
through Wednesday as high pressure slides across the Ohio Valley. A
broad upper level trough will shift east through midweek...
eventually transitioning to a quasi-zonal regime that will
reintroduce an unsettled pattern as a frontal boundary becomes
trapped over the Ohio Valley by early Friday. The front will be
forced north of the region by late weekend as deep ridging
encompasses the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a transition to
hot and humid conditions by early next week.

Today through Thursday

Sunshine returns today with the high expanding over the region.
There remains a hint of a low level convergence axis across the
eastern half of the forecast area which may serve as a focal point
for scattered cu development for this afternoon...but expect a
gradual diminishment of coverage towards late day as progressively
drier air advects into the area. The high will linger over the
region into Wednesday with a more pronounced return flow advecting
higher dewpoints delayed until the evening ahead of an upper level
wave.

Despite less than optimal moisture initially...model soundings
do show weak instability aloft developing Wednesday night which
should support scattered convection as precip water values rise
throughout the night. The primary concern from any thunderstorms
will be locally heavy rainfall as PWATs rise to around 1.50 inches
by daybreak Thursday. Weak surface ridging will follow in the wake
of the convection which should keep most of Thursday dry across the
forecast area. The approach of a warm front from the west by late
day may allow for renewed convection in advance of more widespread
rain and storms for Thursday night.

Highs will be comfortable over the next three days as they slowly
return to near normal levels...rising from the mid and upper 70s
today to the low to mid 80s by Thursday.

Thursday Night through Monday

The next round of moderate-heavy rainfall and at least a few t-
storms should advance east across the region Thursday night, with a
supporting, smaller area of low pressure resembling the recent
Sunday evening episode in scope and position of track, yet
noticeably lower shear/helicity and perhaps near-zero instability
which should prevent a more substantial severe weather threat. That
said, flash flooding will again be on the table, and possibly
through this nocturnal period with moderate certainty the system`s
precipitation maximum, in excess of 2.00 inches, crosses the CWA and
lower confidence so far in which counties this will intersect.

Unlike recent active weather, the Thursday night round should not be
followed by a cooler Canadian flow as strengthening surface low
pressure over the central/northern High Plains promotes a quasi-
stationary boundary lingering across the central US and likely east
to near the local region. This feature should combine with better
deep Gulf moisture supplied by flow out of stagnant surface high
pressure over the SE CONUS to provide frequent periods of showers,
and often diurnal convection late week into the weekend. Widespread
flooding concerns are not expected Friday-Saturday, but local
ponding of low-lying areas and minor flooding is certainly on the
table given possible training of steadier rain amid the stagnant
front.

Rain and convection will push northeast of the region by Sunday,
replaced by high humidity and southerly breezes boosting afternoon
readings to near 90 degrees and maximum heat indices towards
Advisory thresholds by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Impacts:

- Brief visibility restrictions possible at KBMG predawn through
  daybreak

Discussion:

Remnant clouds have largely diminished early this morning as high
pressure expands into the region from the northwest. Cannot rule out
patchy fog impacting KBMG over the next several hours through
daybreak otherwise mostly clear skies are expected with light N/NW
winds.

Drier air will advect into the region later today but subtle
convergence lingering across the eastern half of central Indiana may
promote scattered diurnal cu development for this afternoon. Cu will
dissipate this evening. Northerly winds to around 10kts later
today will diminish to 5kts or less this evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan/AGM