692
FXUS63 KIND 021750
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
150 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant early summer weather the next several days.

- Next chance for widespread rain will be late Saturday into
  Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Little to no changes made for this morning`s update. Fairly dry and
benign weather persists across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for
early June as Canadian high pressure remains the dominant influence
locally. Easterly low level flow is keeping the anomalously dry and
slightly below normal airmass in place, preventing warmer Gulf
moisture from streaming northward. IND ACARs soundings confirm dry
air through the entire column with steep low level lapse rates under
a subsidence inversion near 3 km agl. Once the surface inversion
mixes out by late morning, strong solar heating and deep mixing will
promote a quick rise in temperatures toward the upper 70s to low 80s
this afternoon. In fact, dry air mixing down to the surface should
bring dew points into the 30s and RH values into the 20s or lower
for portions of Central and North Central Indiana. Will have to
monitor wind and humidity levels as guidance may be underdoing wind
gusts and not low enough for humidity values this afternoon as
conditions near critical fire weather thresholds. Due to recent
rains, not too concerned with fire weather issues, but this will be
something to monitor the next few days as grounds and fuels dry out
with this extended stretch of little to no rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over
Ontario, settling southward across the Great Lakes. This was
providing dry easterly surface flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows the
remains of Monday`s mid and high cloud near the Ohio River as clear
skies were building across Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows
a strong ridge across the plains states, stretching north into
western Ontario. Strong subsidence was shown across the Great Lakes
within the lee side flow of this highly amplified ridge. This
subsidence was building across Indiana.

Today through Thursday...

The upper level weather pattern through Thursday will be the
transition of the strong ridge axis west of Indiana today,
gradually passing through our area before reaching the Appalachians
on Thursday. Strong subsidence under the ridge will be a continual
component through Thursday, preventing cloud cover and also
generating a very strong and large high pressure system that will
build across Indiana today and tonight, before departing for the
southeastern states on Thursday. Forecast soundings show a dry
column through Thursday as the strong high moves through the area,
leading to three days of mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

There will be little in the way of temperature advection until
Thursday. Easterly surface flow today and Wednesday will result in
daily highs at or just above persistence. A southerly and warmer
return flow begins on Thursday. Highs in the middle 80s will arrive
then.

Friday and Saturday...

Rain chances will begin to return to the area on Friday afternoon as
the pattern of ridging aloft begins to flatten out and become a more
zonal. This will allow the passage of a few waves of forcing within
the upper flow. Stronger surface high pressure will be found over
the southeastern states, and this will allow a warmer and more humid
flow of gulf air to stream into Indiana. This allows forecast
soundings to show favorable profiles for convection, particularly on
Saturday afternoon and evening when some CAPE will be available.
Thus will continue the use of higher pops on Saturday, but start
introducing pop chances on Friday afternoon and night as the first
forcing arrives within the flow aloft.

Sunday and Monday...

There is more uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.
Models suggest stronger ridging re-developing aloft on Sunday and
Monday, however with the lower levels warmer southerly gulf flow
will continue to stream in to the Ohio valley, providing higher dew
points in the 60s. The development of a surface warm front is hinted
at, lingering near Central Indiana on Sunday and Monday. Forecast
soundings show a bit of different story, showing a strong intrusion
of dry air aloft due to the strong ridging and subsidence aloft.
Thus with mixed signals at this time confidence is low. Given the
warm and humid air mass along with attainable convective
temperatures, some small chance pops will be reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected this TAF period.
- Gusts 20-25 kts through 00z

Discussion:

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period as high pressure
remains the dominant weather influence over Central Indiana. Latest
ACARs soundings show deep mixing to nearly 2km agl allowing for
higher gusts to mix to the surface. Going well over guidance for
wind gusts this afternoon in the 20-25 kt range. NE winds should
subside to under 10 kts after 00-02z as a nocturnal surface
inversion sets up. As high pressure shifts south, winds will become
easterly on Wednesday with sustained winds likely under 10 kts due
to weaker low level flow. No vis or cig concerns in the near future.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
AVIATION...CM
DISCUSSION...Puma