621
FXUS63 KIND 211043
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
543 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy flurries or an isolated light snow shower possible this
  morning

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible

- Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights along with wind
  chills at or below -10

- Potential for a winter storm this weekend, best chances for
  accumulating snow across southern Indiana

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 233 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a frontal boundary
stretching from eastern WI to northern MO to low pressure near the
TX panhandle. This was resulting in relatively warmer southwest flow
in place across Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor continued to
show broad cyclonic flow across the northern CONUS east of the
Rockies. This was keeping a cold, arctic flow, continuing to stream
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows mid and high
cloud over IL, NRN IN and northern MO, along and near the
approaching front. These clouds were pushing east within the flow
aloft. National radar mosaics show show some precipitation near the
nose of IA and virga has been seen across northern Indiana on Radar.
the lower levels remain quite dry as dew points were in the single
digits.

Today...

The upper level pattern is suggested to change little, keeping the
cold flow aloft in place. Models show a short wave within this flow
will push across Indiana this morning along with the associated
cloud cover as seen on GOES19. While this feature will provide
enough support for the clouds and virga, the dry air within the
lower levels may be just too much to overcome. Forecast soundings
never show deep saturation through the column today, only showing
limited lower level saturation this morning with expected clouds as
the associated trough passes. This may only be enough for a few
stray snowflakes or flurries and widespread measurable precipitation
will not be expected. Will use low to no pops in the forecast.

By mid to late afternoon, the front will have passed to the east
and forecast soundings trend toward a dry column amid subsidence
within the flow aloft. Thus partly cloudy skies will be expected by
the afternoon rush hours.

Warm air advection remains in place through mid day. This along with
cloud cover will result in our warmest day in a short while,
reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Tonight...

Clear and colder weather is expected tonight. Models suggest strong
subsidence in place in the wake of the passed wave as the upper
level pattern remains unchanged. Forecast soundings show a dry
column, resulting in a mostly clear sky. Within the lower levels,
Indiana will be caught between low pressure over eastern Ontario and
high pressure over KS. These to features will allow for a continued
westerly flow of cold air into Central Indiana. A weak spoke of a
trough, passing around the low to the northeast, is suggested to
pass overnight, but with the very dry air mass in place, it may only
result in a few passing mid and high clouds. Thus a dry forecast is
expected. Cold air advection remains in play tonight. The pressure
gradient across the area will allow for mixing to remain, but lows
in the upper teens to near 20F appear likely.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 233 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday Through Sunday.

The long term period begins with a sharp transition back to a colder
regime on Thursday following the departure of a mid-week clipper
system. A secondary, more potent arctic front is expected to sweep
through the Ohio Valley during the day bringing strong cold air
advection and falling temperatures. As a strong 1040mb+ surface high
pressure system dives out of the Southern Canada into the Upper
Midwest by Thursday night, the pressure gradient will begin to
tighten. This will result in gusty northerly to northwesterly winds
combining with single-digit overnight lows to produce wind chill
values potentially plummeting into the -10 to -20 degree range by
early Friday morning.

The main focus for the long term period continues to center on the
synoptic setup for the Friday through Sunday timeframe, where global
models and ensembles including the GEFS, Euro, and Canadian continue
to depict a phasing of jets inducing cyclogenesis along the Gulf
Coast. Run-to-run consistency among ensembles favors a storm track
south of the Ohio River, largely suppressed by the aforementioned
arctic high positioned over the Great Lakes which typically limits
the northward extent of precipitation through Saturday. Current
probabilistic guidance indicates that the highest chances for a more
impactful snowfall remains closer of the Ohio River and into
Kentucky.

That being said, a subset of ensemble members, particularly within
the Euro suite, continue to show a northerly trend with the
secondary portion of the system towards Sunday as the aforementioned
high begins to break down which brings accumulating snow to areas
along and south of the I-70 corridor. The GEFS remains more
aggressive with dry air entrainment associated with the polar high
which would keep the precipitation cutoff closer to the Ohio River
while the Euro and Canadian ensembles are more pessimistic with
snowfall totals across Indiana. Consequently, confidence is high in
much below normal temperatures but remains low to medium regarding
precipitation chances, warranting only chance PoPs across the south
and southeast while northern areas likely remain dry.

As mentioned above, temperature forecasts for the period carry very
high confidence regardless of the snow potential, as the NBM
temperature spread remains quite narrow in signaling a deep
intrusion of arctic air. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday
will likely struggle to exit the teens, while overnight lows are
expected to drop into the single digits to slightly below zero.
These values suggest that additional cold weather headlines may be
needed for portions of the forecast area late in the week and into
the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday.

The pattern looks to remain active but cold heading into early next
week, as the longwave trough persists over the Eastern U.S.
following the departure of the weekend system. This setup will
maintain northwest flow across central Indiana, keeping highs in the
20s and lows in the single digits or teens through Tuesday with
lower chances for sub-zero temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 542 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Impacts:

-Southwesterly wind gusts up to 27kts 15Z to 23Z
-Low chance for -SN at LAF along with MVFR cigs

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected for much if not all of the TAF period with
only minimal chances for MVFR cigs this morning and a few light snow
showers towards LAF. Cigs have begun to drop as the lower levels
gradually saturate but expect them to remain VFR through the morning
outside of a low chance at IND and LAF. Snow chances are minimal but
highest at LAF this morning with dry weather expected otherwise.
Winds will continue to gradually become more southwesterly this
morning with gusts as high as 27kts from 15Z to 23Z before dropping
to around 8-12kts tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White