397
FXUS63 KIND 191033
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
533 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for much of Central Indiana
  through 9AM Tuesday

- Bitterly cold temperatures and gusty W/NW winds will produce
  wind chills as low as -15 at times today and tonight

- Cold snap likely this weekend with the potential for sub-zero
  temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure over
Ontario and the Great Lakes. This was providing cyclonic lower level
flow across Indiana amid a moderate pressure gradient. A cold front
within the cyclonic flow was found over eastern Illinois, poised to
push into Central Indiana overnight High pressure was found across
the northern plains states, spilling south across the plains. GOES19
shows plentiful cloud cover across Indiana, IL and WI. Radar shows a
few lingering light snow showers or flurries across Indiana ahead of
the front, exiting quickly east. Temperatures were quite cold with
values mainly in the teens and low 20s.

Today...

Models show the upper pattern remaining quite cyclonic today and
tonight as it remains rather unchanged from the past few days.
Strong ridging remains in place aloft over the western CONUS while a
deep upper low was providing broad cyclonic circulation across much
United States east of the Rockies. This flow is expected to remain
in place today and tonight, keeping a cool northwest flow of polar
air streaming across Indiana. Within the lower levels, the surface
low over Ontario is expected to pull farther northeast through the
day as the high pressure system over the plains begins to build
across Indiana and the Ohio valley. Strong surface ridging is shown
to arrive across the Ohio river by this evening. Forecast soundings
respond to this showing lower level saturation across the area
through the morning hours, but improves as the day progresses
showing subsidence and drying, which should lead to clearing skies.
Thus after a cloudy morning, some sunshine will be expected this
afternoon.

Cold air advection remains in place today in the wake of the passed
cold front. 850mb temps are suggested to fall to near -20C,
translating to temperatures lingering around 10 for much of the
day. High temperatures in the 20s have already been reached for the
calendar day. Thus expect steady or slowly falling temperatures
through the day. Wind gusts across the area will result wind chill
values around -15F this morning improving to around 0F this
afternoon as winds diminish. Cold weather advisory remains a go.

Tonight...

Quiet and cold weather is expected tonight as the upper pattern
remains unchanged with little in the forcing dynamics passing.
Within the lower levels strong high pressure stretching from the
Dakotas to Texas and the Ohio valley will keep control of our
weather providing clear skies. The cold air mass will remain across
our area with lighter winds allowing for better radiational cooling
conditions. This will allow for single digit lows tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Tuesday Through Thursday.

Surface flow will gradually become more southwesterly and weaker
Tuesday as the upper level system exits to the northeast. This will
help to bring somewhat warmer temperatures into Wednesday, but
overall only expect an 8-10 hour window late Wednesday morning into
the afternoon where temperatures will climb above freezing. A
clipper system will interact with the strengthening southerly flow
during the daytime hours on Wednesday which could bring
precipitation to portions of central Indiana but there remains quite
a bit of model spread on the timing of the clipper and how much
moisture is available across central Indiana by the time the better
forcing arrives.

With temperatures near freezing, precipitation type also remains
uncertain with the potential for both rain and snow. Another blast
of colder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday in the
aftermath of the system but the magnitude of the colder air doesn`t
look quite as robust as what is expected for the early this week.

Friday Through Early Next Week.

A much stronger blast of cold air looks likely Friday into the
weekend as arctic air slinks southeastward in the aftermath of the
exiting system and a 1050mb high builds over the Upper Midwest.
Confidence is high in much colder than normal temperatures for the
weekend with the potential for overnight lows at or below normal,
especially over portions of north central Indiana. With models
trending towards a stronger high pressure, this increases confidence
in keeping the subtropical jet well south of the Ohio River and
keeping conditions dry vs how things looked a few days ago when a
major winter storm was being predicted across the Ohio Valley.

The high will gradually begin to break down Sunday into early next
week, but the pattern continues to favor below normal temperatures
for much of next week with signs of another intrusion of cold air
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 532 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 30kts possible through 21Z

Discussion:

Snow has come to an end across the terminals with skies quickly
clearing. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside
of a low chance for MVFR cigs this morning in pockets of residual
low clouds. Westerly winds will continue to gust as high as 30kts
through the morning with gusts gradually becoming less frequent
through 00Z. Any gusts should then come to an end tonight with winds
of 8-12kts tonight through much of tomorrow.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.

Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for INZ060-
061-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White