730
FXUS63 KIND 260735
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of drizzle,fog and light rain through the first half of
  today

- Warm through the weekend with near record highs Sunday

- Rain with a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening,
  possibly ending as a brief period of light snow early Monday

- Much colder next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Another dreary early morning ongoing with a warm front draped across
the Ohio Valley. Areas of drizzle have gradually expanded north over
the last few hours along with lower visibilities to the immediate
north of the boundary. Temperatures varied widely across central
Indiana at 07Z...from the upper 30s over north central Indiana to
the lower 60s in the lower Wabash Valley.

Low pressure over northern Missouri early this morning will track
northeast into the lower Great Lakes by this afternoon. This will
force the warm front north across the forecast area through midday
followed by a weak cold front late this afternoon and evening.

First off...the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect over the lower
Wabash Valley has been cancelled as visibilities have largely
improved since 03Z with the onset of S/SE winds as the warm front
presses north. Visibilities will trend lower through daybreak
further north across central Indiana with the approach of the warm
front but widespread dense fog is not anticipated. Will continue to
monitor trends over the next few hours and may introduce an SPS for
localized dense fog.

Drizzle and a few areas of light rain will become increasingly
prevalent over the next several hours with an axis of deeper
moisture pivoting across the forecast area between 12 and 16Z that
may be able to generate a few hundredths of an inch of rain prior to
midday. Areas of drizzle or very light rain will linger into the
first half of the afternoon over the southeast half of the forecast
area until the cold front can sweep east of the region. Wind gusts
will peak at 20 to 25 mph from late morning through the afternoon as
the front passes.

In the immediate wake of the frontal passage...drier air aloft will
filter into the boundary layer and may be able to weaken the shallow
inversion just enough for a few breaks in the stratus late today.
This will be temporary as the combination of expanding ridging
aloft...surface high pressure and light winds will enable the
inversion to reestablish overnight with mainly cloudy skies. Cannot
rule out patchy fog late tonight but coverage should remain
localized.

Temps...despite the abundance of clouds today...expect well above
normal highs ranging from the upper 50s north to near 70 degrees in
the lower Wabash Valley. Light northerly flow overnight will enable
lows to fall into a range from the upper 30s to mid 40s from north
to south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

The extended period will be a tale of two seasons: first a
continuation of the milder springlike temperatures of the last few
days followed by an abrupt return to winter for the last few
days of 2025 with the passage of a cold front Sunday night.

Saturday Through Monday

Broad upper level ridging will amplify across the eastern half of
the country this weekend resulting in well above normal temperatures
for the Ohio Valley. The passage of high pressure through the Great
Lakes on Saturday will bring slightly cooler air south into parts of
the region as winds remain largely from the east and southeast into
Saturday night. Low level thermals support above normal highs
ranging from the lower 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s over
the lower Wabash Valley. Drier air aloft should be able to erode the
stubborn inversion in the near surface layer to enable some sun on
Saturday...especially focused across the southwest half of the
forecast area.

A deep, positively tilted trough will begin to dig into the Central
and Northern Plains Saturday night which will serve to enhance a
surface low and associated cold front as it presses east towards the
region. Rain chances will increase early Sunday then become
widespread throughout the day as the front approaches. An anomalous
surge of Gulf moisture for this time of the year will advect into
the Ohio Valley by the afternoon aided by a strong low level jet.
Precip water values will rise to levels near if not slightly above
climatological max levels for late December with brief...localized
heavy rainfall possible associated with any low topped convection
that can form. A few rumbles of thunder are possible during the
afternoon and evening Sunday as the front moves into the region and
the overall dynamic nature of the system in tandem with the deep
moisture present ahead of the boundary does present a narrow window
for stronger convection that may be able to pull higher winds aloft
to the surface. The lack of any appreciable instability remains a
limiting factor in a more organized convective risk at this time.
Highs on Sunday will flirt with near record levels in the mid and
upper 60s.

The transition to much colder temperatures occurs as the cold front
moves through the region Sunday night into Monday morning with
temperatures likely to tumble 30 to 35 degrees in roughly 12 hours
in the wake of the frontal passage. While the bulk of the moisture
will exit before the deepest cold air arrives, a brief period of
rain changing to light snow is possible. Accumulations should be
minimal given the antecedent warm ground, but the rapid freeze up of
residual moisture on roadway could produce a flash freeze in
surfaces that have remaining standing water. There will be enough
drying time and stronger winds to limit the overall impacts. A tight
surface pressure gradient in the post frontal airmass will support
blustery conditions and wind chills falling into the single digits
on Monday. Flurries may linger as well before skies begin to clear.

Monday Night through Thursday

Winter returns in earnest as a large high pressure dives out of the
Canadian prairies then reloads through the middle of next week. High
temperatures through the final days of 2025 will generally remain
between the upper 20s and mid 30s. While generally dry conditions
will prevail through midweek under the influence of the polar
high...some lake effect clouds and a few flurries may drift across
northern portions of the forecast area at times. The cold
temperatures will continue right into the first couple days of the
new year with growing confidence in a reinforcing shot of arctic air
for late next week pulling highs back mainly into the 20s with lows
in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1151 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Impacts:

- IFR and lower ceilings into Friday afternoon, then subtle
  improvements to MVFR
- Fog and drizzle at times overnight into Friday morning
- Wind gusts to 20kts Friday late morning through the afternoon

Discussion:

Low stratus remains draped over the area late this evening with
areas of fog across southwest parts of central Indiana. Scattered
drizzle and light showers will expand northeast through the
overnight in response to a warm front lifting north. Ceilings will
drop below 1000ft at all of the terminals overnight and persist into
Friday morning with pockets of drizzle and light rain continuing.
Visibilities at times over the next several hours may drop as low as
1/2 to 1SM focused especially at KBMG and KHUF.

As low pressure passes by to the northwest on Friday...the E/SE flow
overnight tonight will veer to a W/SW direction by midday Friday and
become gusty at times. The influx of slightly drier air will enable
some breaks to develop within the stratus during the afternoon with
a likelihood of a period of MVFR ceilings lasting into Friday
evening. Gusts will diminish late Friday as winds become light
northwest. There remains a possibility for ceilings and visibilities
to drop back down to IFR or lower levels by early Saturday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan