605
FXUS63 KIND 141856
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through tonight

- Rain chances return Friday morning with additional chances for
  precipitation Saturday and much of next week

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday,
  primarily Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night

- Much warmer this weekend into early next week with highs in the
  upper 80s to near 90F

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This afternoon through Friday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through tonight as surface
high pressure traverses the region. A subtle shortwave and strong
LLJ will lead to the development of a thunderstorm complex overnight
near western IL. This complex will then propagate eastward into
central Indiana Friday morning while weakening. Lightning is
unlikely due to very little instability.

Expect the complex to move out of the area Friday morning with
mesoscale subsidence and increasing heights aloft likely supporting
quiet weather conditions later in the day. Low rain chances remain
in the forecast during the afternoon hours across far S/SW counties
due to another subtle impulse pushing through. Warm air advection
should help warm temperatures slightly closer to seasonal despite
early day rain and clouds.

Saturday through Saturday night...

Expect higher rain chances on Saturday as strengthening
southwesterly flow advects deeper gulf moisture northward. This will
promote warmer temperatures in the 80s. A more unstable airmass
along with guidance depicting a few low amplitude disturbances
pushing through supports the potential for numerous showers and
storms. The first impulse moves in Saturday morning with another
disturbance likely to pass later in the day.

Confidence has increased slightly regarding the potential for
isolated strong to severe storms, but uncertainty remains in the
forecast. One of the caveats is early day convection may result in
mesoscale subsidence which could limit convective development later
in the day. That said, guidance generally depicts a quick recovery
amid low-level theta-e advection. There is a non-zero threat for
strong storms during the morning though the better threat appears to
be later in the day when the second impulse approaches.

Increasing mid-upper level flow above a moderately unstable
environment suggest isolated severe storms are possible with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Localized flooding
also appears possible given some models depict a favorable setup for
backbuilding convection towards the evening or overnight hours.

Another caveat resulting in uncertainty is that model
disagreement remains. Subtle shortwaves can be difficult to
discern so look for confidence to remain somewhat limited until
guidance becomes better aligned.

Sunday onward...

Upper ridging building over the eastern CONUS will keep weather
conditions quiet from Sunday through much of the day Monday.
Meanwhile, increasing warm air advection during this period should
allow for temperatures to continue warming well into the 80s to near
90F while dewpoints remain in the 60s. Rain chances quickly return
late Monday within the warm air advection regime and increasing PVA
ahead of an approaching shortwave.

Long range guidance features multiple shortwaves moving across the
upper Midwest keeping the strongest forcing northwest of central IN.
PVA and warm air advection will still support elevated rain chances
through much of next week. Some guidance depicts a few subtle
shortwaves moving closer to central IN supporting stronger forcing
and higher precipitation chances. Expect specific details on the
forecast to remain limited until models become better aligned.

Severe weather is not expected at this time due to the more
favorable deep-layer shear and instability remaining further west,
but this will continue to be monitored closely. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Tuesday before returning
closer to seasonal towards mid week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for rain from 12-16Z Friday.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly clear
skies and light winds through tonight. Winds will from N/NW this
afternoon to southerly this evening into tonight as high pressure
shifts east. There is increasing confidence in the potential for a
brief period of rain towards daybreak Friday with a weakening storm
complex moving in. Lightning is not expected. A low end VFR
stratus deck will likely develop as the complex moves in.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo