578
FXUS63 KIND 021042
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
642 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy Skies Today with periodic light rain showers.

- Dry weather arrives Tonight through the start of the work week.

- Additional rain chances arrive late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure centered over
Central Indiana.  Radar shows a few showers across the northwest
parts of the forecast area, stretching from Tipton to near Terre
Haute, spinning around the low. GOES shows abundant cloud cover in
place across the forecast area due to the low. Water vapor imagery
shows a deep trough in place over Indiana with strong ridging over
the northern plains. Subsidence was filling into the low from the
southwest, wrapping across KY and into SW OH.

Today...

Models continue to keep the upper low lingering across Indiana,
slowly sagging southeast. The associated surface low will push
across Indiana today before reaching Appalachia tonight. Time
heights through the day keep plentiful lower level moisture
available and this should lead to continued periodic light showers.
Heavier rain is not expected as dry air continues to infiltrate the
system. Thus will continue to use high pops today for light
precipitation amounts. Clouds and precip will keep temperatures down,
resulting in below normal highs in the middle 70s.

Tonight...stronger surface high pressure is suggested to build
across WI and MI and spill into Indiana. This will result in
continued clearing skies as the earlier low drifts east and mid
level dry air and subsidence arrives across Indiana. Thus clearing
skies this evening. Lows will only fall to the middle 60s.

Monday and Tuesday...

Strong mid level ridging in place over the upper midwest on Monday
and Tuesday will continue to provide strong subsidence and dry air
across Indiana to start the work week. Forecast soundings show a
very dry column in place with a mid level inversion in place each
afternoon. Meanwhile strong surface high pressure will be moving
across the southern Great Lakes, providing cooler easterly flow.
Thus expect mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights with high sin
the middle 80s.

Wednesday...

Dry weather appears in store on Wednesday as high pressure
stretching from the upper midwest and across the Great Lakes will
continue to maintain control of our weather. Forecast soundings
suggest a dry column on Wednesday that should lead to just partly
cloudy skies.

Thursday through Saturday...

The upper pattern during this period looks to consist of shallow and
broad troughing in place across the northern CONUS east of the
Rockies. A few embedded short waves look to pass during this time
within the flow aloft. Within the lower levels a weak frontal
boundary is depicted lingering across Indiana on Thursday into
Friday. This lower level convergence in combination with weak
forcing aloft and more humid air mass in place will result in the
need for pops each day. By Saturday, warm and humid southerly flow
is depicted. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates favorable for
diurnal convection. Thus once again, pops will need to be included
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to IFR Cigs improving to MVFR through midday, with VCSH.
- Return to VFR by late afternoon.

Discussion:

Low pressure over southern Indiana is expected to slowly drift SE
through the day. Radar shows a band of showers still near Kokomo to
Terre Haute and many other observations were reporting DZ due to the
weak forcing of the cut-off upper low. Models suggest periodic light
rain showers passing SE across the TAF sites through the day as
the low exits. Thus VCSH will be used to cover that.

By late afternoon the surface high to the northwest will begin to
build across Indiana, allowing for mid level subsidence and
associated drying. This will lead to clearing skies this evening and
a return to VFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma