214
FXUS63 KIND 130543
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1243 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly cloudy and mild tonight and again on Tuesday

- Gusty winds end this evening. Gusty winds up to 30 mph return on
  Tuesday and again Wednesday

- Low rain chances Tuesday night into early Wednesday

- Snow showers at times Wednesday into the early weekend with minor
  accumulations around 1 inch possible.

- Well-below normal temperatures later this week into early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Current surface analysis depicts a strong surface high
centered over the deep south with ridging extending north to
Indiana. Surface ridging over the area will provide quiet weather
conditions through the overnight. A weak impulse aloft is promoting
enhanced high clouds, but look for these clouds to clear out over
the next hours as the subtle disturbance departs.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high across
the south and a low pressure system near Manitoba Canada has kept
southwesterly winds elevated. The warm southwest flow combined with
high clouds have limited diurnal cooling. Current temperatures range
from the mid-upper 30s and are expected to bottom out in the low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 319 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a large area of high
pressure stretching from Texas across the deep south to the
Virginias. Low pressure was well to the north over Hudson Bay. This
was resulting SSW flow across Central Indiana. A moderate pressure
gradient was in place across Indiana, resulting in gusty winds.
Aloft, water vapor showed weak ridging over the Rockies, which was
leading to northwest flow aloft over Indiana. Water vapor imagery
shows abundant Pacific upper level moisture within the flow across
the upper midwest flowing toward Indiana.  GOES16 shows a band of
clouds over IN, exiting quickly to the southeast.

Tonight...

Little overall change is expected tonight as the strong high
pressure system to the south continues to block gulf moisture and
dominate the lower levels across Indiana, the Ohio valley and points
south. Aloft a wave within the northwest flow will begin to deepen
and push across Central Canada, but this forcing will remain well
north of Indiana while we remain under the influence of the NW flow
aloft and little in the way of forcing available. As seen on
satellite, high clouds upstream will pass through evening and
overnight, resulting in partly cloudy skies. Forecast soundings are
on board with this, show dry air within the lower levels but
saturation aloft from time to time.

Although the pressure gradient will not change too much overnight,
as heating and mixing is lost tonight, gusts will diminish. Warm air
advection remains in play tonight. This will allow for a warmer night
than last as the previous cold air mass departs further. Lows in the
lower 30s will be expected.

Tuesday...

The previously mentioned wave moving through Canada is expected to
get deeper on Tuesday and begin to dive southeast toward the Great
Lakes. This feature will remain too far north within the NW flow
aloft over our region to impact Indiana. The ongoing Pacific NW flow
aloft is expected to remain, allowing for continued passing high
clouds. Within the lower levels strong high pressure in place across
the deep south will also block gulf moisture and continue to
dominate our weather. A moderate pressure gradient will once again
be in place across Central Indiana, allowing for some gusty winds
through the afternoon. Again, forecast soundings are on board
showing dry air within the lower levels. Thus a partly cloudy sky
will be expected.

Warm air advection continues on Tuesday as 850mb temps surge to near
7C by mid day, before a mid level trough passes by late afternoon.
This along with good mixing in place should allow for highs to reach
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Looking ahead, a much strong cold front will be lurking across the
Great Lakes looking to bring much colder temperatures later this
workweek.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The large scale pattern during the extended will be dominated by a
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with ridging centered along
the west coast, classic for a positive PNA pattern coupled with a
negative AO pattern. This pattern tends to lead to well below normal
temperatures (10-15 degrees) as well as generally near to below
normal precipitation for central Indiana.

The long term starts with the first of several cold fronts that will
push south through central Indiana late Tuesday night. Wednesday`s
high temperatures will be set before sunrise as colder air continues
to filter south through the period, as 850 mb temps fall from near 0
C at 06Z Wednesday to -10 C by 18Z Wednesday. In addition, light
rain will be possible along the front in a region of modest
frontogenesis. In the wake of the front, strong CAA will lead to
gusty winds from 25-30 mph during the day with near steady temps in
the 30s. Deep layer N-NW BL fetch coming straight off Lake Michigan
will support snow showers into the NE parts of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Have maintained the minor
accumulation and 50 pop wording in this region.

After a brief respite from the winter weather on Thursday as
shortwave ridging moves across the region, another shortwave will
dive south into the Great Lakes. Despite the presence of strong
frontal forcing, the pattern looks very favorable for a combination
mid level PVA forcing and orographic effect snow event. These events
tend to be over productive and would not be surprised to see some
areas along and east of I-65 receiving 1-2 inches. Recent NBM
blend was trying to tone down the pops for Friday into early
Saturday but increased them back to the previous 50 pops.
Preference would have been to go even higher but will defer to
later shifts for timing details of likely or greater potential.

Beyond the late week snow event, good agreement exist in the coldest
air of the period moving into the region over the weekend as mid
level height fields continue to lower. EPS and GEFS both show around
-250 dm height anomalies for 500 mb this weekend. 850 mb temps
around -15C anomalies also spread into central Indiana, translating
to highs 15-25 F or about 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Impacts:

- Winds gusts between 25-35kt today
- Marginal LLWS this morning possible
- Rain showers developing after 00z with MVFR ceilings possible

Discussion:

Winds will be the primary impact to aviation today, with gusty
southwesterly winds between 15-20kt gusting 25-35kt at times. The
boundary layer may be stable enough this morning to promote a brief
period of marginal low-level wind shear (30-40kt at 1500ft), mainly
from 12z to 15z. Boundary layer mixing will then allow this to
diminish and surface gustiness to increase.

Mid/high-level clouds are streaming in from the northwest signaling
the arrival of a weak storm system. Mid/high ceilings are expected
to develop this morning and continue into the evening. By tonight,
continued lowering may allow for a period of MVFR ceilings. MVFR
ceilings become more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period as
the system`s cold front passes through. Additionally, a period of
rain showers is likely along and ahead of the cold front, mainly
from 04z onward. A transition to snow showers is expected after the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Eckhoff