340
FXUS63 KIND 090804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ends this early this morning.

- Turning colder, temperatures lingering in the 30s much of the
day. Chances for snow showers this afternoon into Monday.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph today.

- Lows in the 20s Sunday night and Monday night, with wind chills
  in the teens at times Sunday night into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure over SE
Indiana. Strong and cold high pressure was found entering MT and ND.
This was resulting in a cold northerly flow of air across the upper
midwest. Flow across Indiana at the moment was more variable due to
the location of the current low, but that cold, northerly flow will
be notable today. Radar shows the location of the upper low, over
east Central IL. Scattered showers were found within the warm
sector, pushing northeast across Central Indiana. More wrap around
type showers with snow were found across northern IL and northern
Indiana. Aloft, strong ridging was building across the western
CONUS, while a low over northern Ontario was deepening. This was
resulting in a strong surge of cold, Canadian air plunging southward
across the northern plains.

Today...

The upper low and associated surface low pressure system will push
east of Central Indiana, allowing the onset and arrival of a much
colder air air mass across Central Indiana. Models suggest a
continuation of cyclonic lower level flow across the area today amid
a tight pressure gradient.  Aloft, strong ridging will remain in
place over the western CONUS while a large, deepening trough will be
in place over the midwest. This highly amplified flow will bring much
colder air to Central Indiana on northerly winds. Within the lower
levels, strong cold air advection will be in play as 850mb temps
fall toward -10C by 00Z. This will result in steady or slowly
falling temperatures throughout the day with temperatures lingering
in the mid 30s for much of the day. Time heights and forecast
soundings reveal saturation within the low levels given the cyclonic
flow and cold air advection. Forcing will be weak through the day as
the clouds remain, however light precipitation will remain possible,
especially toward 21Z as a secondary upper trough begins to pass
across Indiana. Forecast soundings at that time will remain below
freezing, thus p-type will be snow. Precipitation amounts should be
minimal and contained to elevated and grassy areas.

Tonight...

The upper trough will continue to push across Indiana this evening,
with the best forcing expected to pass between 21Z Sun and 03Z Mon.
HRRR fails to pick up on this possible precip, but given the lower
level moisture and forcing arriving with the secondary trough/upper
low, pops with minimal accumulations will still be needed. Clouds
should continue to linger overnight as ridging aloft will remain
well to the west. Cold air advection looks to continue as the core
of the cold air with 850mb temps near -12C arrives across central
Indiana. By morning surface temperatures look to fall the middle
20s, should any flakes remain at that points, minimal, thin
accumulations could be possible on concrete and paved surfaces.

Further of note, a lake effect band is likely to set up in NW
Indiana. HRRR suggests this band may impact areas within the Wabash
valley overnight. Any snow amounts in central Indiana will not be
nearly as significant as near Lake Michigan, however, this area does
have additional potential for light snow showers lingering
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

The work week will begin on a cold and blustery note, with snow
showers likely, particularly Monday morning, though the tail end of
a potent lake effect band may keep flakes falling over northern and
northeastern portions of the area into the afternoon and evening
hours.

This will all occur as a strong upper low quickly pivots through the
area early Monday, along with a secondary surface trough. A fairly
strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place, promoting
wind gusts as high as 20-25 MPH Monday, and 25-30 MPH Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Subtle upper level disturbances will slide through the area Tuesday,
which could produce a few flurries with some midlevel moisture
present, though low level dry air will sublimate much of this
activity. Will carry a chance of flurries in the morning and
flurries or sprinkles in the afternoon on Tuesday.

Much of the remainder of the long term period will be dry as high
pressure at the surface dominates and heights aloft build, allowing
temperatures to steadily recover mid week onward, with highs
climbing back into the 50s and 60s.

The next substantial chance of precipitation comes late next
weekend, though significant guidance differences make this highly
uncertain, though temperatures should be warm enough for this to be
all rain.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1124 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Impacts:

- Rain showers with MVFR/IFR conditions developing overnight
- Low ceilings with scattered rain/snow showers Sunday
- NW wind gusts around 30kt into the early evening.

Discussion:

Current VFR conditions across Central Indiana will be quickly lost
in the next 1-3 hours. Low pressure over Central Illinois is
expected to arrive over Central Indiana and past east of the state
around 12Z Sunday.

As the low passes, winds will become westerly and cold air advection
will promote the arrival of MVFR/IFR Cigs. Showers ahead of the
front are expected, but appear scattered on radar. Thus have used a
large window of VCSH overnight.

Cyclonic flow with ongoing cold air advection will continue on
Sunday. This will result in continued MVFR Cigs along with chances
for a few snow showers. Again, VCSH has been used as any showers at
that time should be minimal. Forecast soundings and time height
sections continue to indicate saturation within the lower levels,
hence MVFR cigs. A moderate pressure gradient win the wake of the
front will allow for wind gusts on Sunday to around 30 knts.
These winds will gradually diminish this evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma