004
FXUS63 KIND 032007
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
307 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7AM to 7PM today
  across far SE counties, greatest chance for impacts during the
  afternoon.

- Chances for above freezing highs late this week and again mid-
  next week

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Band of moderate to briefly heavy snow will continue to gradually
shift SE across southern portions of central Indiana through 22Z.
Hourly snowfall rates from 0.5 to 1 inch will be possible across
southern portions of Lawrence, Jackson and Jennings counties over
the next 2-3 hrs before the snow diminishes/ends between 21-23Z.

Ahead of a sharp mid-upper shortwave trough axis over the MS valley
an axis of steep mid level lapse rates (7-7.5C/km) extends into a
zone of FGEN forcing between 700-600 mb. The combination of these
steep lapse rates with elevated instability (MUCAPE around 25 j/kg)
has contributed to convectively enhancement to the FGEN forcing.
This enhancements are also collocated with the DGZ further
supporting heavier snowfall rates.

As the shortwave progresses towards central Indiana, the best FGEN
forcing and axis of steep mid level lapse rates moves to the E-SE of
central Indiana between 21-23Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Weak surface cyclogenesis has led to deepening low pressure over
the southern Ohio Valley throughout today, of which is creating a
narrow corridor of frontogenesis within southern Indiana. In
return, banded snowfall has formed over this region, with moderate
snow rates being observed. Further analysis on the specifics of
this banded snowfall is in the mesoscale section at the top of the
AFD.

These snowbands are expected to continue throughout the afternoon
and evening, but will likely be south of the central Indiana CWA
within the next 3 hours. Still, a quick 1-2 inches is possible in
places like Seymour and North Vernon before the snow ends. The
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7PM, but this will
likely be ended early once the snow exit to the SE.

Overnight, cold air advection will push in cooler temperatures but a
consistent broken to overcast stratus deck will likely limit diurnal
cooling some with lows in the teens to near 10 degrees tomorrow
morning. Tomorrow will have relatively quiet but cold weather as the
bulk of the cooler airmass arrives beneath mid-level pressure gains.
This should result in some clearing, but there will likely still be
some mid to upper level cloud cover within a strong jet stream.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

An upper trough will be making its way eastward for the end of the
week before more zonal upper flow moves over central Indiana. This
weekend into next week may see some ridging at times but models lack
clear agreement past this weekend. Generally temperatures will trend
warmer than we have seen in several weeks. Highs on Friday are
expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s but a quick moving system
will drop highs back to the 20s on Saturday before another warming
trend returns from Sunday and on.

Dry weather is expected for much of the long term period due
partially to limited moisture availability but a few passing waves
would make light precipitation possible at times. The far north
could see some snow showers early Friday with the passage of a
frontal system. The next best chance of precip will come at the end
of the period with the potential for an approaching trough and
surface low.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible at times this afternoon and again late
overnight

- Confidence in snow decreasing and may only impact BMG this
afternoon.

Discussion:

Surface Low pressure moving across KY this afternoon may result in
some light snow showers across southern parts of Central Indiana,
including Bloomington. Radar currently shows most precipitation as
virga or very light across the area. HRRR shows band development
this afternoon as the low passes to the south near BMG, Bedford and
eastward toward Seymour. Models suggest these snow showers should
exit near 00Z, as surface high pressure begins to build from the
northeast.

Diurnal cooling should allow for some stratocu cloud development
overnight and this may result brief MVFR Cigs overnight. VFR should
return by mid Wednesday morning as high pressure continues to build
across the area.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ064-
065-071-072.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma