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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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276 FXUS63 KIND 310301 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1001 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect tonight into Saturday morning - Very cold temperatures expected through Sunday - Scattered flurries and snow showers tonight into Saturday - Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest - Best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday next week with a potentially impactful winter system && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 A small persistent area of flurries/very light snow showers continues to move south across the forecast area, and is currently in the Indy metro area. Expect this to continue south but gradually weaken as it does so. Have adjusted the flurry mention to account for this area as it moves south. Lake effect/enhanced snow showers currently remain west of central Indiana, so shrunk the size of the flurry mention west this evening. The lake band will continue to drift slowly east, and have only made tweaks to ongoing forecast of PoPs overnight as they look to remain representative of current thinking. In central Indiana, only a dusting at most is expected. Temperatures vary across the area depending on cloud cover. The initial band of stratocumulus will drift south, then lake enhanced clouds will overspread the area from the north. Readings have shown quick falls when clouds diminish, so feel that forecast lows look reasonable. Only made some minor tweaks. Given this, the Cold Advisory will remain as is. Wouldn`t be surprised if isolated areas west of the Advisory briefly reach criteria, but don`t believe enough will to justify expanding the Advisory. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 303 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Synoptic analysis shows a potent west-east oriented trough dropping south out of the Great Lakes. Flow through the atmosphere generally has a northerly component, even ahead of the advancing trough. As such, a well-defined cold front is not currently seen dropping south. Instead, slightly colder air aloft will gradually seep southward tonight into Saturday. Cloud cover associated with this feature is beginning to enter northern portions of central Indiana. An area of stratus is primarily located from South Bend, to Fort Wayne, southward to about Indianapolis. Guidance shows this particular cloud deck dropping southward tonight while gradually thinning out. Further north, a more substantial cloud deck exists over Michigan. Additionally, abundant cloud cover extends downstream into Illinois from Lake Michigan. Going forward, cloud cover will have a substantial impact on low temperatures tonight. As of right now, it looks like a period of clearing is likely across eastern portions of our area. Therefore, assuming clearing holds and radiative cooling potential is maximized, we`ve lowered forecast lows below guidance tonight. Lows between 0 and -10 are expected. We`ve also issued a Cold Weather Advisory for these areas, in effect from 06z to 14z. Further northwest, a few instances of -10 to -15 degree wind chills are likely but substantial cloud cover will limit the duration and extent of such occurrences. In addition to cloud cover, modest forcing associated with the upper trough drops south tonight. Moisture from a long N-S fetch over Lake Michigan will increase the odds of scattered snow showers tonight over north and western portions of central Indiana. Snow showers remain isolated for most of the night but a more concentrated area of snow is possible from about 09z to 15z. Amounts look to be light, generally from a dusting to half of an inch at most. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 303 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Little change in the long range pattern is expected. Global teleconnections continue to favor west coast ridging and east coast troughing (positive Pacific North American pattern and negative Arctic Oscillation). Ensemble guidance does show the PNA becoming more neutral to possibly negative by the middle of February. GEFS/EPS likewise continue to show a continuation of the current pattern through the first week of February. Scaling down a bit, northwesterly flow aloft looks to prevail most of next week. A few weak storm systems may be embedded within this flow, bringing periodic cloudiness and chances of light snow. The first of these is a weak clipper system passing to our north on Monday. Next is a weak system passing to our southwest on Tuesday/Wednesday. This one, should it trend stronger with a greater gulf moisture connection, has potential for accumulating snowfall. Additionally, this system may pull the baroclinic zone far enough north to introduce possibility of mixed/rain chances. Right now, guidance is in poor agreement regarding the position and strength of this system. Beyond that, generally more of the same is expected. Namely, colder than normal temperatures, northwesterly flow aloft, and occasional weak clipper systems diving southeastward out of Canada. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 558 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings Saturday - Scattered snow showers especially 07-16Z. Discussion: First area of lower VFR clouds will continue across the sites through the evening. There may be a break for KIND/KBMG around 05Z, but confidence in timing and location isn`t high enough to include this break. More clouds will arrive during the overnight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR after 12Z Saturday. These ceilings will likely linger throughout the day, with perhaps larger breaks in the deck toward 00Z Sunday. Flurries and scattered snow showers will be around, especially in the 06Z-15Z time frame. Brief MVFR visibility is possible in the snow showers. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for INZ037-039>042- 045>049-053>057-061>065-067>072. && $$ UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...Eckhoff LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...50 |
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