472
FXUS63 KIND 081847
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
247 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 20-35 mph possible on Thursday with an elevated
  fire weather threat during the afternoon.

- Numerous rain showers are expected Friday with an isolated t-storm
  possible, dry weather is expected for the weekend.

- More rain chances on Monday through Wednesday may bring receding
  rivers back into flood stages for some areas with active weather
  potentially continuing beyond the 7 day forecast period.

- Above normal temperatures expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

This afternoon through Thursday...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected as surface riding
extends back into central Indiana from a surface high centered near
northeast portions of the CONUS. Return flow combined with a
strengthening MSLP gradient between the departing high and an
approaching low pressure system near the Canadian/US border has
helped warm up temperatures significantly. Highs well in the 60s
to near 70F this afternoon are about 20 degrees warmer than
yesterday. Look for even warmer temperatures well in the 70s on
Thursday due to stronger southwesterly flow.

Latest CAMs are suggesting the potential for 20 to 35 mph gusts
tomorrow ahead of an approaching front associated with the
aforementioned system. Between increasing diurnal mixing through the
day and a strong LLJ weakening during the day, it appears there
could be a sweet spot for these strong winds. The strongest gusts
are likely going to occur from mid morning through the early to
mid afternoon hours before gusts diminish. Some increase in
clouds ahead of the approaching front may limit daytime mixing
though which limits confidence slightly regarding the intensity of
wind gusts.

While mostly mundane weather is expected, there is a low chance for
a few showers or a stray thunderstorm across the far north as the
front approaches. Weak forcing and very limited moisture should
largely inhibit convective development though with POPs only around
10 to 20 percent. Latest CAMs are even less bullish keeping central
Indiana completely dry so would not be shocked to see rain chances
completely removed in the overnight forecast update.

There is an elevated fire weather threat Thursday afternoon due to
diurnal mixing promoting minimum RH values around 25 to 30 percent
in the afternoon along with the strong southwesterly winds and
drying fuels.

Thursday Night through Friday Night...

Most guidance depicts the aforementioned frontal boundary stalling
across northern Indiana Thursday night as the parent trough pushes
further northeast across Canada. An additional shortwave moving in
on Friday will help to eventually push the front through central
Indiana. Low-level convergence along the front along with more
favorable large scale scent from a passing shortwave to the north
supports increasing rain chances. Expect numerous showers during the
day and perhaps a few storms. Thunder chances are quite low, around
20 percent, due to weak instability. Drier air filtering in behind
the front should lead to decreasing rain chances late Friday
afternoon into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Sunday...

Moderate upper ridging is expected to be moving through Indiana and
the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. This will be accompanied by
an area of surface high pressure moving through the Great Lakes on
Saturday and reaching New England by Sunday. Thus dry weather and
mainly partly cloudy skies will be expected. Surface flow around the
high on Saturday will be southeasterly, however on Sunday as the
high pushes farther east, warmer, southerly flow will develop across
Indiana. This will result in Sunday being a bit warmer than Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...

A wetter, rainy pattern is expected to take shape as we start the
next workweek. Constant rain is not expected and there will be many
dry hours, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
each day.

Aloft, a moderate trough is expected to be in place over the western
CONUS, while a weaker ridge is in place over the eastern third of
the country. This will result in a southwest flow in place across
the Ohio Valley. Multiple upper waves and energy are expected to
pass within the flow on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, providing
forcing. Within the lower levels, southerly flow is expected to be
in place on Monday and Tuesday, allowing warmer and more humid air
to flow into the Ohio Valley. This combined with the passing forcing
aloft will provide sufficient forcing for showers and storm
development. An even better setup for rain looks to take shape on
Wednesday as a frontal boundary is expected to slowly sag across
Indiana from the northwest. This will result in an additional
ingredient for rain, building confidence. Monday through Wednesday
looks to remain within the warm sector as southerly flow will remain
in place. Look for temperatures to remain above seasonal normals as
highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional 18-22kt at LAF through 23Z

- LLWS threat from 06z tonight into early tomorrow morning

- Southwesterly wind gusts between 20-27 kt expected on Thursday,
  potential for higher gusts but confidence is limited

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue near central Indiana terminals through
the period. Winds will be veering from the south to southwesterly
late tonight into Thursday morning. Occasional 18-22kt gusts are
possible near LAF through about 23Z today. Tonight will see a LLWS
threat from 06z through tomorrow morning, ending by 13-14Z.

Southwesterly wind gusts between 20-27 kt are expected on Thursday.
Higher gusts cannot be ruled out from mid-morning through the early
afternoon before winds begin to diminish, but confidence is limited
at this time.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Puma/Melo