983
FXUS63 KIND 111028
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
528 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild today with showers and embedded thunderstorms developing late
  day

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible late today into this
  evening focused primarily across the southwest half of central
  Indiana. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A
  few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Mild weather continues today ahead of low pressure that will
approach the region this afternoon. The low will track quickly
across the Ohio Valley late today into this evening with showers and
a few thunderstorms accompanying an associated cold front. In its
wake...a much cooler airmass will overspread the Ohio Valley as a
strengthening upper level trough expands across the eastern half of
the country. Chilly temperatures are expected with the chance for
scattered light precipitation Thursday and Friday. As the upper
trough moves away to the east over the weekend...dry and seasonable
weather will return and continue into next week.

Through Tonight

Thin cirrus is slowing increasing across the region early this
morning with patchy fog having developed in response to shallow
moisture and largely calm flow in the near surface layer. 07Z
temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

Fog has remained localized to this point with visibilities largely
remaining above one mile. The remnants of the weak boundary that
moved into the forecast area on Tuesday appears to be located just
south of Interstate 70 early this morning and may serve as a focal
point for further expansion of the ongoing fog through the predawn
hours as temperatures fall to the dewpoint. Will continue to monitor
through daybreak with fog diminishing by mid morning.

The greater focus for today will be on the low pressure currently
organizing over northwest Iowa early this morning. The low will
continue to strengthen as it tracks southeast with an associated
cold front today then across the forecast area late this afternoon
and evening. Convection will rapidly develop along the boundary by
late day and at least presents a sneaky yet conditional risk for a
few severe storms. Initially the approach of the low and cold front
will promote an increase in S/SW flow across the Ohio Valley with a
narrow axis of subtly higher dewpoints and MLCAPE values from 600-
1200 j/kg drawn poleward along the front by mid afternoon. This will
approach the Wabash Valley after 20Z with increasing convective
development expected after that as BL shear increases and lapse
rates steepen. Convection will surge east along the front with
impacts from 21Z through about 01Z from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area.

The combination of best moisture and instability with strongest
shear will occur just south of the surface low track with the
greatest risk for a few severe storms focusing south of a line from
near or just north of Terre Haute E/SE through Bloomington and
Columbus. While the low level jet is not particularly impressive...
it will not take much to pull some of the higher winds to the
surface with any stronger cell in this zone across the southwest
half of the forecast area. The presence of a narrow one to two hour
timeframe with increasing 0-1km SRH and favorable directional shear
through the boundary layer supports a low but non-zero threat for a
tornado as well. Stronger cells will carry a risk for small hail but
anticipated updraft strength is likely not to be sufficient for
larger hail. The convective line will shift east quickly and be out
of the forecast area by mid evening.

Strong cold advection will commence immediately in the wake of the
frontal passage with gusty N/NW winds developing. Scattered light
showers will continue tonight focused largely across the northeast
half of the forecast area as cyclonic flow aloft gradually
establishes. Temperatures will fall quickly to around 40 by daybreak
Thursday.

Thursday through Friday Night

The coldest air of the Fall so far arrives for Thursday and Friday as
an upper trough amplifies and then closes off an upper low that will
drop into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night. Multiple waves
will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining
plenty of low level clouds and periodic precipitation through the
period.

The strongest of the short waves will track across the region on
Thursday. As it does so the wave will interact with strong cold
advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered
to numerous light rain showers peaking in coverage during the
afternoon and focused particularly across the northeast half of the
forecast area. The addition of brisk northwest winds and broad
stratus will make for a raw chilly day across the area with highs
remaining in the 40s.

Subtle ridging Thursday evening will aid in decreasing shower
coverage but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region
Friday morning which will maintain at least a broken stratus deck
with the potential for renewed light precipitation that may linger
into the day. A more pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan
Thursday night into early Friday supports the development of a more
persistent north-south band of rain and snow across northwest
Indiana that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the
northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs
and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in
response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Model soundings do
show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates
into Friday afternoon. This will maintain a healthy stratocu deck
across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles
or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of
Interstate 65. Drier air will gradually advect into the region
Friday night as upper level cyclonic flow relaxes resulting in a
slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night progresses.
Lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s over the entire forecast
area.

Saturday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
well into next week. Other than the potential for lingering
scattered diurnal cu on Saturday as the upper low moves away...
expect a return to quiet weather with mainly clear skies as strong
high pressure settles over the region. The onset of warm advection
will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for
mid November. Highs will rise from the mid and upper 40s this
weekend back into the mid 50s by next Wednesday. Lows will range
between the mid 20s and lower 30s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 528 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog early this morning with lowest visibilities at KHUF

- Scattered showers with embedded storms impacting the terminals
  late today into the evening

- Gusty N/NW winds with MVFR ceilings developing tonight into early
  Thursday

Discussion:

Patchy fog continues early this morning with the lowest visibilities
at KHUF over the last few hours. Fog will linger through daybreak
for diminishing by 14Z as mid and high level clouds slowly increase
in advance of a surface low pressure approaching from the west. Near
calm winds to start will increase to 5-10kts by late morning from
the south.

As the low moves into the region during the second half of the
afternoon...convective coverage will quickly increase along the
trailing cold front as it sweeps across central Indiana into the
early evening. May see embedded thunder with briefly stronger wind
gusts accompany the convection with the bulk of the activity east of
the terminals by mid evening. Winds will veer to N/NW and become
gusty immediately behind the front during the evening. MVFR stratocu
will gradually fill in as well for much of tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan