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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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076 FXUS63 KIND 060813 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 313 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday, especially first half of the day - Much colder starting Sunday with chances for light precipitation late Saturday-Monday...snow flurries most likely Sunday night && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Moderate CAA behind yesterday frontal passage has led to building high pressure and quickly diminishing winds. This combination of clear skies and calm winds will lead to PBL decoupling and a steep surface inversion of which could lead to pockets of dense fog along river valleys. Expected lows in the low to mid 30s this morning. High pressure will remain throughout the day. A robust jet stream remain aloft, contributing to the development of another shortwave over the upper Mississippi Valley. As pressure trough deepens, winds will veer back towards southerly, although the surface high will still be influencing the overall conditions keeping skies mostly clear outside of some upper cirrus this afternoon. The progressive pattern will continue this evening into tonight as the aforementioned shortwave nears from the west. Once again, a developing nocturnal jet is expected, leading to breezier conditions to develop shortly after sunset this evening. This edition of the shortwave will have some moisture convergence along the developing frontal boundary of which will lead to numerous showers to approach from the NW late tonight. Antecedent dry air should curtail precipitation onset some, but by 10Z, showers should be entering the CWA, and quickly progressing eastward through central Indiana Friday morning (more on this in the long term). Lapse rates are rather weak, but with a strong LLJ, there could be enough lift for some areas of elevated instability and therefor a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out tonight. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 Friday through Monday... Increasingly active pattern surrounding this weekend`s staunch transition to well below normal temperatures and the season`s first consecutive hard freezes early next week...will begin with a weaker wave producing scattered to briefly widespread rain showers Friday. While a few strong storms are possible along and southeast of the Ohio Valley as the wave strengthens...low confidence in anything more than a brief downpour over central Indiana`s southeastern zones. Another breezy day will see gusts up to 20-30 mph veering through southwest headings...bringing the last unseasonably mild day for the foreseeable future, with highs around 65-70F. Saturday`s generally fair conditions and still slightly-above normal readings will be the calm before the cold blast...as various short waves across the central CONUS work with a 510 dm H500 cut-off trough that will plunge from south-central Canada on Sunday along an axis over the Mississippi Valley. Surface cyclogenesis ejecting east just ahead of this synoptic shift...while likely tracking across our northern counties Saturday night will bring rain showers, especially north of I-70 late Saturday and Saturday night. Mass of corresponding arctic surface high pressure plunging down the High Plains will also push its eastern extent into central Indiana, arriving early Sunday and likely mixing snow into any lingering showers. The upper trough`s core/axis will most likely swing east across the region by the late weekend...favoring an only-snow precipitation type to any flurries or few lake-enhanced snow showers that may occur. Any impacts would likely be limited to around the Sunday night/early Monday timeframe when flurries would overlap with temperatures falling below 25F...especially north and east of Indianapolis which would have the best chance of catching the fetch of lake-enhanced precipitation. Heights/temperatures aloft will be the lowest around the Monday morning timeframe...with the 1000-500mb 510 dm thickness nearing the region`s northern counties, and H850 temperatures within the CWA as low as negative 13 degrees Celsius. Gradient flow should continue through the early week as the broad, deep trough`s H500 height minimum spins from Michigan to western Quebec. Expect snow flurries to wane around the Monday timeframe as decent vort wrapped around the upper trough`s core spins east of southern Lake Michigan, with occasional light snow most likely to linger north/east of the Indy Metro. Temperatures should fall below 25F for most locations for at least two overnights, with probably only one daytime held under 40F. Tuesday and Wednesday... A return to a more zonal, albeit now slightly northwesterly, flow is expected for the mid-week as the massive upper trough progresses off the Atlantic coast/lifts into Canada. The once huge/cold surface ridge will set-up shop over the Deep South...and combine with a Clipper-type disturbance crossing southern Ontario...to provide robust southwesterly gusts. Resultant moderation should be about 10 degrees/day, with at least 40s Tuesday and perhaps slightly above normal/50s for the end of the period. Partly cloudy yet rain-free conditions will be the rule into the mid-week. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 Impacts: - Low probability for fog near 12Z Thursday Discussion: Winds will continue to quickly diminish this evening as high pressure brings lower winds through the morning hours. Light winds and mostly clear skies may allow some ground fog to form by 12z but confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs. Mainly high clouds are expected at times through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...Updike |
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