128
FXUS63 KIND 311346
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
946 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather expected today through next week.

- Near-average temperatures, highs near 80, lows in 50s/60s.

- The next best chance for rain will be on Saturday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Only minor adjustments made to the forecast for the next 24 hours,
mainly focusing on increasing clouds tonight into Monday morning and
the threat for a few isolated showers.

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday`s weather, high pressure over
Ontario will be the main weather influence across Indiana today.
Light ENE low level flow will keep a fairly dry airmass over the
state for this time of year with dew points in the 40s this morning.
GOES Simple Water Vapor RGB depicts a plume of moisture along the
ridge axis overhead stretching from the SE CONUS, northwestward into
Illinois and into the Northern Plains. A building ridge over the
Central CONUS sharpens the ridge axis over the next 24 hours,
placing Indiana  briefly within a NW flow pattern. The moist airmass
just south and west of Indiana shifts slightly eastward tomorrow,
resulting in just enough moisture to support isolated showers as a
shortwave dives southeast around the ridge and into the Lower Ohio
Valley Monday morning. CAMs has been picking up on this threat for
the past 24 hours. While the deepest moisture and forcing for ascent
will likely remain over Illinois near the shortwave, there should be
enough moisture to support an isolated shower threat across Central
Indiana and southwestern portions of the state. The threat is fairly
low and most locations should stay dry, but it is worth mentioning
that Monday will have thicker cloud cover overhead with isolated
showers around. Still expect a warm day with near normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over the eastern Great Lakes. This was providing a cool and
dry easterly surface flow to central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor
showed a highly elongated upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley
stretching north into Manitoba and western Ontario. Lee side
subsidence was found over OH and MI with this feature as water vapor
showed some mid and high level moisture across Indiana and IL. The
pressure gradient across the area was allowing for the occasional
wind gust.

Today and Tonight...

Little change is expected in the weather today and tonight. The
strong ridging in place aloft to the west of Indiana will remain
anchored there, providing continued subsidence and surface high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and into eastern Indiana. This
will provide continued mild and dry easterly flow across the
forecast area, resulting in mostly clear skies. High temperatures
today should reach the upper 70s to near 80.

Monday through Thursday...

Models show the upper ridge remaining to the west of Indiana during
this time. However a moderate trough within the flow around the
ridge is expected to push from the Great Lakes across Indiana on
Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will have little to no lower
level moisture to work with as days of persistent dry easterly will
allow dew points to only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. Models
suggest strong and dry surface high pressure continuing to build
into our state with dry easterly winds. Forecast soundings do
suggest the passage of some mid and high cloud with this upper
trough, but dry air within the lower levels will be too much to
overcome. Expect more dry and mild weather with some passing mid and
high clouds on Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday Morning...

Dry and pleasant weather is expected to continue during this period
as models continue to suggest the stubborn Omega block will remain
in place over the region, providing non-changeable, stagnant
weather. During this period, the ridge axis will be mainly over
Indiana and the eastern Great Lakes with associated upper lows over
the Carolinas and Saskatchewan. This will result in a large area of
surface high pressure in place over Indiana stretching to the
northeast through the period. Forecast soundings show a dry column
through the Friday morning. All of this will lead to continue mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights. As the airmass slowly modifies,
highs should reach the lower 80s.

Friday Afternoon and Saturday...

Models here hint at the first chances for a pattern change. The
strong Omega block is shown to break down, as a flatter, more zonal
flow begins to develop on Friday afternoon. Models suggest the
arrival of some forcing dynamics arriving on Saturday afternoon, as
surface frontal boundary begins to sag into the area from the
northwest. Forecast soundings show limited CAPE available on both
Friday and Saturday afternoons. Best chances for rain will be in
place on Saturday as the lower levels appear a bit more favorable
with a frontal boundary in the area. Very low confidence afternoon
pops may be included on Friday afternoon due to the low chance of a
stray instability shower or storm.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 614 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Impacts: None; VFR expected.

Discussion:

No impactful changes to the ongoing forecast. Strong high
pressure northeast of Indiana will continue to provide dry lower
level easterly flow across the TAF sites. High cloud caught up
within the upper ridging to the west will continue to pass across
the TAF sites providing high, sometimes thin cigs.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma