332
FXUS63 KIND 011450
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures will continue, with below normal temperatures
  likely to persist well into mid February

- Chances for light snow tonight into Monday morning, Tuesday, and
  Thursday night into Friday, with light accumulations possible each
  time

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Minor updates made to the forecast this morning, mainly regarding
temperatures as rural areas continue to be quite cold. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions overnight have lead to numerous
lows in the -10 to -15 degree range. In cities/urbanized areas
temps were more modest in the 0 to -10 range. A strong but very
shallow surface inversion was able to develop. This will take some
time to mix out and temperatures are expected to remain a bit
colder than guidance through the morning. However, once the
inversion mixes out we`ll warm up nicely (relatively speaking)
with highs rising into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The persistent north-south lake effect stratus streamer off lake
Michigan has finally started to thin along the Illinois-Indiana
border with most of the forecast area under clear skies. There was a
wide variation in temperatures across central Indiana with some
locations as cold as -10 to -5 while some spots primarily within the
lower Wabash Valley where stratus still lingered remained in the
teens.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will drift across the Ohio Valley
today with dry weather and warmer temperatures as winds pivot around
to the southwest by this afternoon. A fast moving upper level wave
will spread clouds back into the region tonight with light snow late
tonight into Monday morning.

CAMs have continued to struggle mightily with the specifics within
the bitterly cold Arctic airmass that has now been in place over
the region for more than a week. Those issues are present within the
early morning model suite in overdoing yet again potential
fog/freezing fog concerns through the predawn and into the morning.
While shallow moisture remains within the near surface layer...
analysis of ACARS soundings over the last few hours at KIND show
that the hi-res models are exaggerating both the lingering inversion
and moisture trapped beneath it. Observations across the area have
shown localized freezing fog already early this morning and
anticipate that to continue and likely expand slightly in coverage
through daybreak. That being said...the widespread dense freezing
fog and subsequent expansion of low stratus being suggested by the
model suite over the next several hours is far overdone.

There will be sunshine this morning but any localized fog and
stratus may take a bit of time to mix out through the morning as the
surface ridge axis moves across the region with continued light and
variable flow. As the ridge axis shifts east this afternoon...
southwest flow will develop with partly cloudy skies anticipated
before cloud cover returns from the west after sunset.

An upper wave will swing across the region late tonight with a mid
level vort lobe moving through the forecast area during the predawn
hours. While the overall model blend has struggled to depict this
feature...the presence of the upper level forcing should be
sufficient to spread an area of light snow across the forecast area
after 06Z Monday and likely lasting through daybreak. Light
accumulations around a half inch if not slightly higher are possible
with elevated snow ratios in play.

Temps...the Cold Weather Advisory continues across the northeast
half of the forecast area through 14Z and have seen wind chills
within the advisory slip at times into the -15 to -10 range. This
will be the last cold weather headline for the next few days as
temperatures modify into the upcoming week. The onset of southwest
flow this afternoon will aid in temperatures rising into the low and
mid 20s across most of the forecast area. Lows tonight will range
from the high single digits in the east to the mid teens over the
Wabash Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Expectations for the long term period remain roughly consistent as
in recent days - for the most part, continued below normal
temperatures, and at least a couple/few opportunities for light
accumulating snowfall.

The tail end of a weak clipper system tonight may allow flurries or
light snow to persist into Monday. Guidance in general, but
especially blended guidance struggles with low QPF light snow, and
have kept snow chances here in lieu of the dry blend.

Deterministic models have continued to stick with a weaker and
further south depiction of the mid week system, though some
potential for light accumulations will still exist, primarily during
the day on Tuesday across the southern half or so of the area in a
deformation zone north of the surface low.

A third, fairly potent clipper will move through the upper Great
Lakes into the northeast late in the work week, and appears likely
to produce another opportunity for light accumulations Thursday
night into Friday, with some potential for additional flurries or
lake effect snow showers into the early portion of the weekend
depending upon the flow orientation in the wake of the system.

The continued intrusion of Arctic airmasses into the region will
keep temperatures below normal, sometimes well below normal,
throughout the period. If the freezing mark is going to make it into
Indy metro, it may be on Friday ahead of the aforementioned clipper,
though this will depend significantly upon timing of said system,
and there is a perhaps substantial chance that guidance temperatures
are too warm here. It is entirely possible Indianapolis does not
reach the freezing mark until well into mid February.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 542 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog early this morning
- Pockets of MVFR ceilings today, becoming more widespread late
  tonight with a chance for light snow predawn Monday

Discussion:

Much of central Indiana remained clear early this morning with
localized fog. The fog will take some time to diminish this morning
while MVFR stratus currently developing across eastern Illinois and
northwest Indiana may expand back into KHUF and KLAF later this
morning. The lower clouds will mix out for the afternoon as a high
pressure ridge passes through the Ohio Valley. Clouds will return
for this evening into the overnight in advance of a fast moving
upper level wave. Scattered light snow is likely to accompany the
wave and overspread the region in the predawn hours Monday. Have
introduced prob 30s for snow at both KIND and KLAF where confidence
in impacts is highest.

Light and variable winds this morning will become S/SW at 5 to 10kts
in the afternoon before becoming light again tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan