218
FXUS63 KIND 060337
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1037 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70...with major
  flooding on East Fork White River at Seymour into weekend

- Widespread fog tonight, patchy dense fog possible.

- Near-daily rain and occasional t-storm chances through Saturday,
  with likely an additional 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall

- A few strong to severe storms possible Friday into early Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth
  likely Friday...and potentially next Monday-Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

One primary update this evening, mainly concerning fog potential.
We`ve increased the mention of fog in the forecast for the whole
CWA. Additionally, we`ve greatly expanded the mention of areas and
widespread fog with northerly extent. Fog has developed over much
of the area as of 10pm, though dense fog has not yet occurred. A
few locations have dipped down to a half of a mile visibility,
however.

High resolution guidance is quite aggressive with fog development
overnight, especially along and north of I-70. Thick stratus and mid-
level cloud cover remain the primary mitigating factor. Dense fog,
should it form, may result from the aforementioned stratus lowering
to ground level from broad subsidence currently in place. Model
soundings echo this, with a sharp inversion slowly lowering through
the night.

We`ve issued a Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog.
Trends will need to be monitored closely, and a Dense Fog Advisory
may be needed at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a warm front stretched
across northern Indiana, near a line stretching from Rensselaer to
Van Wert. Temperatures across Central Indiana were pushing into 60s,
while on the north side of the front temperature were mainly in the
lower to middle 40s. Radar this afternoon shows a shift southeast of
the rains that have been impacting central Indiana. However plenty
of cloud was still found across our area. Water vapor showed a mid
level short wave over IL pushing east with subsidence building
across Indiana, with a tropical plume of moisture that had shifted
south, streaming across KY and TN.

Tonight through Friday Night...

Models suggest strong troughing will develop over the western CONUS,
allowing the development of southwest flow aloft over the southern
plains streaming into Indiana and the Ohio Valley. This will begin a
warm and southwest flow of air into our area tonight, persisting
into Saturday. Within the lower levels the warm front to the north
will be expected to push farther north toward Michigan. This will
place Indiana deeper within the warm sector through Friday night.
Chances for rain will continue tonight as models disagree a bit on
available forcing aloft. At the moment, we will be unable to use a
dry forecast, but pops will be much smaller than the previous nights
and any precipitation will be much less and less widespread. HRRR
does suggest some spotty showers overnight. Some Fog will be
expected, but not the widespread dense variety as the warm front has
moved much farther north.  Overnight lows and Friday`s highs will
remain above seasonal normals with highs in the 70s expected on
Friday.

Friday will allow for more sunshine and much warmer temperatures as
we remain in the warm sector. Forecast sounding suggest dry lower
and mid levels, but with steep lapse rates and some CAPE present,
afternoon convective showers cannot be ruled out and small pops may
be used.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

Another rain event is expected at this time. Models show the western
CONUS trough sagging southeast through Saturday. This will begin to
influence the forcing across Central Indiana on Saturday through
Saturday Night as upper support streams across our state. Meanwhile
within the lower levels. Much of Saturday looks to be spent within
the warm sector, with the cold front pushing across Illinois. Storm
chances will be needed as forecast soundings show attainable
convective temperatures along shallow CAPE. More showers and storms
will be possible again on Saturday night as the associated cold
front passes. Ahead of the front, forecast soundings suggest pwats
over 1 inch, allowing the possibility of heavy rain. A training
pattern is not expected, as these should move rather quickly across
central Indiana, but given all the rain of recent days, additional
rainfall could lead to more flooding. Again, high confidence for
more rain is expected on Saturday morning and Saturday evening as
this forcing arrives amid the warm and humid airmass. High pops will
be used. Highs on Saturday should be a bit cooler than Friday, given
the expected rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 327 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Overall zonal H500 flow courtesy of retracted heights over northern
North America...will allow broad yet surface ridging across the
central to eastern US through the early week.  Light southwesterly
breezes will maintain well above normal temperatures...while
welcomed rain-free weather will be the rule per Gulf moisture
suppressed south of the Ohio River through Monday night. Near record
warmth, into the low 70s, is on the table both Monday and Tuesday,
with unseasonably mild conditions continuing amid increasing, mainly
southwesterly breezes into Wednesday.

More potent northern surface ridge will plunge into the Upper Midwest
before retreating to Quebec through the final days of the long term
period...this will translate to a cool front reaching the Midwest
around the Monday night timeframe...before stalling and likely
returning as a warm front by the mid-week.  Increasing warm/moist
advective flow will produce at least isolated showers by the Monday
night-Tuesday timeframe...with more organized showers likely into
the mid-week that should allow mainly moderate rainfall amounts.
The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term period is
49/31.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Impacts:

- IFR conditions developing this evening, persisting through tonight.

- Isolated showers, low ceilings and fog expected tonight into
  Friday morning.

- South winds 10-15 knots gusting to 25 knots expected Friday.

 Discussion:

A warm front just north of Central Indiana will continue to be the
focus during this TAF period. A moist air mass will remain across
Central Indiana as the front lifts northward through Friday.

Isolated showers have been present through the afternoon associated
warm front. These showers should persist on and off into tonight.
Showers have been numerous throughout the area but they are limited
in duration, lasting only a few minutes in any one location. As
such, we will go with VCSH through the night at all terminals.

Additionally, fog is beginning to develop across central Indiana.
Guidance suggests that fog may become dense at times from HUF to IND
northward. We included TEMPO groups for fog from 1/4 to 1/2 mile
visibility. These will likely need updates through the night as fog
develops. Otherwise, expect IFR ceilings through the night.

A quick return to VFR conditions is anticipated tomorrow afternoon
as strong southerly flow arrives behind the warm front. Winds out of
the south between 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt are possible.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Eckhoff