336
FXUS63 KIND 120533
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1233 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming partly cloudy and warmer through Monday

- Scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday...with
  snow showers at times late Wednesday into the early weekend

- Turning colder mid week onward

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments made
to match observations. Current surface analysis depicts a strong
broad surface high centered near the region. This will provide quiet
weather conditions through the overnight. Low stratus is still
lingering over much of the area at this time. Strengthening
subsidence with drier air filtering in should clear out this stratus
deck from west to east over the next several hours. Latest satellite
imagery already shows southwest portions of central Indiana have
cleared out.

Current temperatures are generally in the upper 20s. Southwesterly
flow and clouds over the next few hours should limit diurnal cooling
tonight. Look for lows in the low to mid 20s as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure over Quebec
and high pressure over OK. A ridge axis extended north from the
high, stretching to MN and the western Great Lakes. GOES16 showed a
shield of cloud cover within the cyclonic flow stretching across the
Great Lakes and including Indiana. Clear skies were found to the
southwest with the associated high, while northwest flow aloft has
allowed mid and high clouds within that flow to stream across the
upper midwest. The earlier snow showers/flurries have exited.

Tonight...

Northwest upper flow is expected to continue...allowing a steady
stream of mid and high clouds to push across Indiana overnight.
Meanwhile within the lower levels the surface high is expected to
build eastward, allowing the ridge axis to push across Indiana
through the night. Forecast soundings show a dry column within the
lower levels with some saturation aloft, which is indicative of the
passing high clouds. Thus after this pesky stratus deck exits, skies
will be partly cloudy overnight. Warm air advection is in play
tonight on westerly winds aloft. Thus will trend lows to the middle
20s.

Monday...

Another dry, quiet weather day will be in store. Indiana will remain
under NW flow aloft while an upper level disturbance pushed across
Michigan and the Great Lakes. This forcing will stay well north of
central Indiana. Strong surface high pressure will be settling
across the deep south. This will result in a dry and mild southerly
flow in place across Indiana.  Time heights show a dry column
through the day as do the time height sections. Thus will expect a
partly cloudy and warmer day. Warm air advection will continue to be
in play, and this will allow temperatures to recover to the lower to
middle 40s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

With very brief exception, upper level longwave troughing will be
present across the eastern portion of the country throughout much of
the week and into the coming weekend. This will produce a general
cooling trend through the work week and weekend, as multiple
individual shortwaves and cold fronts drop through the region.

Precipitation chances will arrive as early as Tuesday afternoon with
the first cold front, though temperatures should be warm enough in
the low levels for this to fall as rain Tuesday into Tuesday night.
A secondary cold front accompanied by the main push of Arctic air
follows shortly after on Wednesday, which will allow a gradual
changeover of rain to snow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night,
with some potential for light accumulations.

A brief break is expected Thursday, though there is at least some
potential for lake effect flurries to sneak into central Indiana,
before the next systems in the wave train bring additional low snow
chances Thursday night into Saturday night. Guidance inconsistencies
prevent more than low to middling chance PoPs at this point, but
additional light accumulations cannot be ruled out. Yet another
reinforcing shot of Arctic air appears likely, which will bring lows
down into the teens most nights and highs no warmer than the low to
mid 30s, with several days likely to struggle to get out of the 20s.

Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits at times from
mid week onward, with subzero wind chills not out of the question
depending upon snow and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 25-30kt this morning into the afternoon

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings have departed to the east, leaving VFR conditions in
place which are expected to persist through the TAF period.

South-southwest winds between 5-10kt are expected through sunrise
today, before diurnal mixing allows speeds and gustiness to
increase. Winds sustained between 15-20kt gusting 25-30kt are
likely. Winds should diminish later this afternoon as a system to
our north exits eastward.

A period of BKN/OVC mid/high-level cloud cover is likely this
morning as the aforementioned system passes by.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff