472
FXUS63 KIND 191955
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
255 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gloomy conditions through Thursday with a persistent low stratus
  deck; areas of fog tonight, potential for locally dense fog.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend with the next round of
  rain Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry Sunday and Monday, Rain chances return Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Current satellite and surface observations depict extensive low
clouds across the region. This stratus deck has kept temperatures
nearly stagnant through the day and has helped fog linger in most
spots. Most locations are still seeing marginal visibility
reductions around 4-7 miles. Marginal solar insolation may help to
briefly clear out the fog in spots before sunset. Visibilities have
improved across portions of the area.

Model guidance and forecast soundings suggest weather conditions
remain fairly unchanged through early Thursday within a stagnant
airmass. A subsidence inversion promoted by surface high pressure
will continue to trap lower tropospheric moisture resulting in a
persistent stratus deck during the period. Winds becoming very light
or even calm at times tonight is expected to promote redevelopment
of fog with the potential for locally dense fog. The stratus deck
will also greatly limit diurnal temperature swings. Look for
temperatures to only cool into the low 40s tonight.

Increasing warm air advection ahead of an approaching system
Thursday should help to clear out fog through the morning and help
lift the aforementioned stratus deck some. Mostly cloudy skies are
still expected during the day though. Look for low rain chances,
primarily late in the day, due to increasing warm-moist advection in
addition to strengthening mid-upper level forcing. While rain
chances do begin to increase on Thursday, latest guidance shows the
bulk of precipitation will fall after the short term period. Most
high resolution guidance keeps much of central Indiana as lingering
dry air delays top-down saturation. Any rainfall amounts will likely
be very light.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday night through Saturday...

Zonal flow aloft is expected on Thursday night as a weak, stalled
surface frontal boundary will be lingering across southern Indiana.
Abundant lower level moisture appears to remain in place on the
north side of the this front across Central Indiana, which will lead
to cloudy skies for much of the night. Late Overnight and on Friday,
a surge of warm air advection from the southwest is expected ahead
of developing low pressure over the plains. This will result in a
tightening of the temperature gradient across central Indiana and
overruning from the south along with isentropic lift. Forecast
soundings through the day on Friday show a deeply saturation column,
with a surge of warm air advection within the lower levels. Pwats
are suggested to reach near 1.30 inches and remain there through the
day as the surface low approaches. Thus confidence is high for a dry
Thursday evening, but also high for the arrival of rain late
Thursday night through Friday. The warm air advection will allow
temperatures to reach the 50s.

On Friday Night night and early Saturday, the surface low will be
pushing across southern Indiana, continuing to provide a source of
forcing and cyclonic flow along the frontal boundary which will, at
this time, be reaching southern Indiana as a cold front. Forecast
soundings here suggest a gradual drying through Saturday afternoon
as strong high pressure begins to build across Indiana from the
northwest. Forecast soundings here show a top down drying through
the day, suggesting the arrival of the surface high and associated
subsidence. Thus some lingering chances for rain in the morning, but
dry weather returns in the afternoon on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday...

The large surface high will be in control of our weather on Sunday
and Monday as a quick NW flow will be in place aloft. Little in the
way of forcing dynamics will pass, thus dry weather will be expected
with partly cloudy skies. Of note here, an upper low, cut off from
the NW flow will be lingering across the American southwest. This
will be our weather maker for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned upper low will drift into the quick upper
flow and quickly push across the plains states toward Indiana.
Strong forcing ahead of the low is suggested to arrive over Indiana
late Monday through Tuesday. A surface low accompanying this system
is expected to track northwest of Indiana, placing our area within
the warm sector, which will also have ample moisture available. Thus
Tuesday again looks like another wet but mild day.

Models suggest the upper low will quickly exit on Tuesday night
before another, weaker upper trough along with a cold front passes
on Wednesday. Once again precipitation will be possible as this
secondary system passes on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR ceilings ongoing, expected to gradually improve to
  low end MVFR later today or into tonight for most sites

- Ceilings may bounce back down to IFR overnight for some sites,
  potential for fog redevelopment

Discussion:

Cool and stable northeasterly flow across the area has allowed for
the persistence of widespread IFR ceilings across the area around
400-800 feet. These will gradually improve to low end MVFR this
afternoon, but may build back down to IFR tonight, though this
remains uncertain. Have brought ceilings back down to 900 feet for a
few sites after sunset tonight to account for the potential.
Ceilings should return to low end VFR during the day Thursday, but
confidence on exact timing for this remains uncertain as well.

Visibilities are generally still ranging from 2-6SM midday. Expect
these visibilities to gradually improve to VFR later this afternoon.
Fog is expected to redevelop with the potential for MVFR or worse
visibilities at some sites again tonight. There is an outside shot
at IFR visibilities as winds go calm at some sites, but for now will
leave MVFR.

Winds will become more easterly as the day goes on then
southeasterly this evening. Late tonight, where winds are not calm
to light and variable, winds will become more southerly or
southwesterly. At all times, winds will be less than 10KT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Melo