824
FXUS63 KIND 151038
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
638 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms return late today, with severe storms possible
  mainly from 8 PM to 1 AM EDT

- WIND ADVISORY in effect from 11 AM today to Monday at 8 AM

- Wind gusts today between 45 to 55 mph

- Snow showers likely on Monday with up to an inch possible

- Much colder air early this week, wind chills near zero Tuesday
  morning

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

In terms of precipitation, much of today will be quiet with
stronger forcing limited to the cold front as it moves through this
evening. Some guidance tries to create some showers in some weaker
lift ahead of the front this afternoon, but confidence is low in
this happening. Cut back guidance PoPs for the afternoon, but did
allow some chance PoPs to move into the western forecast area later
in the day.

The main story during the daytime will be gradient winds thanks to a
tight pressure gradient from a deepening low pressure system.
Strong winds aloft will be across the area today (50-70kt at 850mb,
with near 50kt perhaps as low as 2000ft AGL). Most guidance keeps
the area free of lower clouds in the warm sector, and this would
help mixing this afternoon. Gusts over 50mph will be possible in
this setup. However, will have to watch lower clouds developing
across Mississippi now to see if they can make it up here and lower
the high end of gust potential.

Given the above, will keep the Wind Advisory as is and continue to
mention gusts over 50mph possible. Warm advection and some partial
sunshine through mid and high clouds will bring highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Current timing of the cold front and associated line of convection
is in the 00Z to 05Z time frame from west to east. The system will
provide strong forcing to maintain the line of convection as it
moves east across central Indiana. Plentiful moisture will be
advected into the area on the strong winds.

With the potent wind fields, shear will be strong across the entire
area. Dewpoints in the 50s will help limit CAPE, but it won`t take
much CAPE to interact with the shear and wind fields to create
severe convection with damaging winds. Mesoscale features may
influence the line of convection and produce a few tornadoes as well.

Temperatures will fall quickly behind the front, with readings going
from the 60s at 00Z to the 30s and 40s by 06Z. A dry slot will work
in behind the front, potentially providing a dry period overnight
before snow chances return from the west toward sunrise.

Temperatures will be below freezing by 12Z Monday, perhaps bringing
some slick spots on elevated surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Monday...

Winter returns with a vengeance Monday. The upper trough will move
across the area, providing some forcing. Very cold air aloft will
move into the area as well. Thus, expect scattered snow showers to
continue through the daylight hours on Monday. The snow squall
parameter is positive across the area, so some briefly intense snow
showers are possible.

Some areas may see an inch of snow, and if heavier snow showers do
develop, isolated 2 inch amounts are possible.

Breezy winds with gusts near 40mph will make it feel very cold,
especially given the warm temperatures on Sunday.

Tuesday...

Winter continues Tuesday with well below normal temperatures
expected. Lows will be in the teens Monday night and in the lower
20s Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will only be around 30. Wind chills
near zero remain likely Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and beyond...

A clipper system could bring some light snow to the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Questions remain on the path and strength of
the system, but some light accumulating snow is possible.

A large upper ridge across the western part of the USA will try and
build east into the area late week and may return temperatures to
above normal. However, guidance continues to diverge on the
development of the upper pattern next weekend, so confidence is low
in details then.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Impacts:

- Non-convective LLWS this Sunday morning.
- South winds with gusts between 40-45kt late this morning into
  the afternoon
- Thunderstorms and MVFR conditions expected after 00Z Monday.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through about 00Z Monday. There is a low
chance of some MVFR clouds developing during the afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include.

Strong winds aloft will continue LLWS this morning, then mixing will
bring down gusts of 40-45kt in the afternoon.

A few showers are possible in the afternoon, but a line of
thunderstorms is expected to move west to east through the sites
mainly in the 00Z-04Z time frame. Convection may be severe. MVFR and
worse are possible within convection, then general MVFR behind it.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50