960
FXUS63 KIND 241618
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1218 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 50s today with a warming trend through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday Night,
  some of which may be severe.

- Cooler on Friday, with a warming trend resuming over the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Forecast is in good shape this morning, so only made some tweaks to
match current trends seen on satellite and in hourly observations.

High pressure will continue to provide quiet and seasonable weather
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Expect quiet weather conditions through the period as surface high
pressure remains in control. Relatively favorable radiational
cooling aided by weakening winds and scattered high clouds has
allowed for temperatures to steadily fall overnight. Current
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s have cooled slightly
quicker than anticipated so slight adjustments were made. High
resolution guidance was incorporated to drop lows a few degrees.
Expect lows to generally range from the mid 20s to low 30s this
morning.

The surface high will progressively shift eastward today into
tonight leading to winds becoming more S/SE compared to ENE flow at
this time. Wind speeds are likely going to remain light under 10 kts
across central Indiana. Northwest flow remains aloft, but subtle
warm air advection beneath this and partly cloudy skies is expected
to promote warming temperatures. Look for highs to warm well into
the 50s.

Diurnal mixing into a very dry airmass just above the surface should
also support min RH values around 25 to 30 percent this afternoon.
Light winds and recent rainfall will tend to limit fire weather
concerns for the moment though. Some increase in clouds appears
likely towards the early evening and overnight hours as a weak upper
wave moves through. No precipitation is expected from the
disturbance due to a dry airmass still in place in the lower levels.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Anomalous ridging out west combined with low-amplitude troughing
over the northeast will promote progressive northwesterly flow aloft
across the Midwest. This pattern has allowed for variable conditions
with periods of above-normal warmth interrupted by brief but potent
cold fronts. This is expected to continue, as the cold air mass
behind Sunday`s strong front will already be in the process of
moderating as of this writing.

High pressure slides east of the region today, allowing winds to
become southerly with gradual warm air advection taking hold. By
Wednesday, guidance shows a subtle vort max approaching from the
west. This feature causes surface MSLP gradient to tighten as well
as allowing a potent low-level jet to begin forming. Winds also
become more southwesterly in nature which allows warm air advection
to accelerate. Highs may climb into the upper 60s/low 70s Wednesday
afternoon.

MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

The low-level jet reaches peak intensity late Wednesday night into
Thursday. The aforementioned vort max, combined with isentropic lift
from warm air advection, and surface convergence at the nose of the
LLJ...all point towards an area of broad lift arriving late
Wednesday night. Guidance has come into better agreement showing
isolated convection developing before sunrise Thursday. Instability
appears low, which would limit updraft intensity...but shear is
plentiful and long straight hodographs suggest a non-zero hail risk.

The pattern then repeats again with another strong cold front
modeled to drop south late Thursday. Temperatures may once again
approach record levels with highs pushing into the 80s across the
region before the front arrives. The synoptic set up is actually
very similar to yesterday. Strong warm/moist advection, broad
synoptic-scale forcing, with moderate to high levels of shear and
instability. This all points towards another round of showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for severe weather, late Thursday.

Guidance is already trending towards anafrontal convective
development, with elevated storms intensifying behind a shallow but
strong cold front surging southward. Details still need to be ironed
out, including timing and how steep mid/upper-level lapse rates are
which will determine storm intensity behind the front. Shear is
plentiful, and given the elevated nature of modeled convection it
would appear large hail is again the primary hazard.

THIS WEEKEND ONWARD

Another significant cool-down is likely by Friday with highs back
into the 40s/50s. As with previous iterations of this pattern, the
cool-down is short-lived and a warming trend begins again over the
weekend. Temperatures may once again push into the 60s/70s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High and mid clouds
will pass by at times. Surface high pressure will keep the
weather quiet, with winds generally from the southeast at 10kt or
less.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50