799
FXUS63 KIND 140245
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1045 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through early Friday

- Rain chances return late this week with additional chances for
  precipitation next week

- Much warmer this weekend into early next week with highs in the
  upper 80s to near 90F

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Very quiet and seasonable weather expected over the next 24 hours as
high pressure becomes centered over the region. Latest satellite
imagery shows clear skies over Indiana and the majority of the
midwest due to strong subsidence under the incoming high and a much
drier airmass associated with it. Winds around 10-15mph tonight with
gusts to 20 mph at times will be on a diminishing trend through the
overnight hours as the surface pressure gradient gradually weakens.
In fact, northerly winds during the day tomorrow should remain
fairly light and may go calm at times. Sunny skies will allow for
strong boundary layer heating, however below normal low level
temperature anomalies may only support highs in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Enjoy the relatively "cooler" weather as summer
like temperatures arrive this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Thursday as upper
ridging and surface high pressure are centered across the region.
Diurnal mixing along with a modest pressure gradient between a
departing low pressure system and the approaching high has promoted
breezy conditions today. Look for these winds to quickly subside
this evening once the PBL decouples. Efficient radiational will
allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s overnight. A few
locations across the far N/NW may briefly fall into the upper 30s.
Temperatures then quickly warm back up well into the 60s to near 70F
in some spots.

Friday through Saturday night...

Guidance depicts a more active pattern developing towards the end of
the week once upper ridging shifts east. A few low amplitude
disturbances traversing the region and sufficient moisture advection
supports increasing rain chances. The first shortwave moves in on
Friday with a better chance for convection on Saturday ahead of a
more organized upper wave. Warm moist advection and daytime heating
should promote destabilization through the day. Meanwhile, a low
amplitude shortwave moving through supports strengthening deep-layer
flow. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but this setup could
promote a few strong storms. There is the potential for
destabilization to be significantly limited by early day convection
so confidence on the severe weather remains low.

Sunday onward...

Upper ridging building in will likely keep weather conditions quiet
from Sunday through much of the day Monday. Increasing warm air
advection during this period should allow for temperatures to warm
well into the 80s. Dewpoints are also going to rise well into the
60s making it feel muggy. Rain chances quickly return late Monday
into Tuesday and onward as additional shortwaves move through the
region. Long range guidance depicts deeper gulf moisture returning
northward with these systems which should support the potential for
storms at times.

Severe weather is not expected at this time due to the more
favorable deep-layer shear and instability remaining further west,
but this will continue to be monitored closely. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Tuesday before returning to
near seasonal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Impacts:

- Northwesterly gusts up to 20kts through 01Z this evening

Discussion:

VMC to persist for the rest of the TAF period as high pressure
becomes centered overhead tomorrow. Satellite imagery shows diurnal
cumulus already waning resulting in mainly clear skies overnight. NW
winds diminish through the evening to under 10 kts then further
diminish Thursday as the pressure gradient significantly weakens
under the area of high pressure. No cig or vis concerns.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
AVIATION...CM
DISCUSSION...Melo