230
FXUS63 KIND 281439
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday,
  with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several
  degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid
  week next week at the earliest

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

The current forecast remains in good shape with only minor
adjustments needed to match observations. Latest surface analysis
depicts a weak low pressure system near the northern Great Lakes
Region while a strong is centered the central CONUS. Surface ridging
extending into Indiana will favor dry conditions throughout the day.

A weak gradient has kept winds slightly elevated limiting diurnal
cooling slightly overnight, but temperatures are still very cold
this morning. Temperatures generally range from a few degrees above
zero over the far south to negative single digits further north.
Wind chills are very cold as well ranging from near -10 to as low as
-20F in spots.

The Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory continues to
remain in effect through noon EST for this reason, but these
headlines could end earlier depending on when wind chills rise above
criteria. Look for temperatures to warm into the teens to low 20s
this afternoon under partly cloudy skies and modest warm air
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Dry conditions will persist through the short term as high pressure
remains the primary surface feature of note across the region.

The primary concern for the short term remains cold temperatures and
wind chill values.

A wide variation in observed temperatures is noted this morning with
2 AM surface temps ranging from just above zero to 7 below. With
plenty of night left to go should see at least some areas push
double digits below zero before daybreak, with wind chills pushing
20 below where winds remain strong enough. Will leave the current
cold headlines as is.

Clear skies will greet the start of Wednesday before increasing mid
and high cloud push into the region. Forecast soundings suggest at
least few to scattered lower stratocumulus should form this
afternoon. The cloud cover and lower starting point this morning
should result in highs ranging from just above 10 degrees in the
northeast to around 20 in the southwest, with wind chill values no
warmer than the positive single digits.

Cannot entirely rule out a flurry or two from any lower cloud that
forms, as temperatures would be within the range for snow crystal
growth, but any flakes that fly would be extremely minor and of no
impact. Will keep any explicit mention out for now.

Skies will clear somewhat this evening into early overnight, before
additional mid and high cloud begin to move into the region ahead of
weak low pressure well to our southwest. Despite this cloud cover,
lows tonight should again drop to below zero across much of the
area, with wind chills again in the advisory range across roughly
the northern half of the area. Have issued another Cold Weather
Advisory in these portions of central Indiana from 06-15Z Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Cold continues through the long term with a few nights still seeing
dangerous minimum wind chills. Models are in good agreement with the
current troughing pattern continuing with persistent northwesterly
flow aloft into the start of next week. Ridging aloft towards the
end of the period should bring slightly warmer, but still below
normal, temps to the region, at least briefly.

The remainder of the week and the start of the weekend will see
highs in the teens and lows below zero. Combined with winds, nightly
wind chills of -10 or less are probable at least a one or two more
times through the end of the week and could prompt additional cold
weather headlines. Behind an upper low prolonging the arctic air
into the week, temps look to slightly warm late this weekend into
the start of next week as highs could creep into the 20s and may
finally see lows above zero again. Some spots may even reach at or
above freezing near midweek.

Surface high pressure systems will dominate through the long term,
providing mostly dry weather, but a few passing waves could bring
periodic chances of flurries or light snow, mainly over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 552 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional westerly wind gusts of 18-22KT Wednesday afternoon

- Patchy MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday afternoon, with chances
  highest at IND/BMG

Discussion:

Arctic high pressure to the west is producing light to calm winds
and clear skies across the area this morning. Expect this to
continue until increasing mid and high level moisture brings some
cloud cover into the area, particularly for the afternoon hours.

Forecast soundings indicate the potential for convective
temperatures to be reached, producing some low stratocumulus
underneath a broken midlevel cloud deck this afternoon. Some MVFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out, but confidence is too low at this
point to go more than FEW-SCT025.

Shallow mixing layer of about 3KFT will tap into flow just off the
surface as strong as 20-25KT, allowing for some mixing down of this
momentum to the surface, thus will carry westerly gusts of around 18-
22KT depending upon the site. These gusts will end in typical
diurnal fashion by sunset.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-054>057.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ060>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Nield