441
FXUS63 KIND 121026
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
526 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous light showers developing today with much
  cooler air

- Periodic light precipitation remains possible tonight and Friday.
  A few snowflakes possible as well late tonight through midday Friday

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow
  warming trend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 211 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

A strengthening upper level trough will expand across the eastern
half of the country through the end of the week marking a drastic
shift to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Chilly temperatures
are expected with the chance for scattered light precipitation
through Friday. As the upper trough moves away to the east over the
weekend...dry weather will return with temperatures gradually
warming through next week.

Today through Friday Night

Light rain lingers across northeast parts of central Indiana early
this morning as low pressure tracks across southern Ohio. An initial
surge of lower stratus in the immediate wake of the cold front was
moving into the southeast half of the forecast area with breaks in
the clouds further to the northwest. Northerly wind gusts were
dropping off from speeds Tuesday evening with temps dropping quickly
in the 40s as cold advection establishes.

The coldest air of the Fall settles over the region in the short
term as an upper trough amplifies and then closes off an upper low
that will drop into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night.
Multiple waves will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough
maintaining plenty of low level clouds and periodic precipitation
through Friday.

A few light showers are possible through late morning focused
largely over the northeast half of the forecast area but subtle
ridging aloft will briefly track through the area and largely limit
precipitation through midday. This will also aid in delaying a
broader stratocu deck from settling over the area until later today
with the potential for at least some breaks in the clouds this
morning across the southwest half of the forecast area.

The strongest of the short waves within the amplifying upper level
trough will track across the region this afternoon. As it does so
the wave will interact with strong cold advection and steepening mid
level lapse rates to generate scattered to numerous light rain
showers peaking in coverage by mid to late afternoon and focused
particularly across the northeast half of the forecast area. The
resumption of gusty northwest winds along with increasing stratus
will make for a raw chilly day across the area with highs remaining
in the 40s.

Subtle ridging this evening will aid in decreasing shower coverage
but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region Friday
morning. This will maintain at least a broken stratus deck with the
potential for renewed light precipitation that may linger into the
day Friday. A more pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan
Thursday night into early Friday supports the development of a more
persistent north-south band of rain and snow across northwest
Indiana that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the
northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs
and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in
response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Model soundings do
show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates
into Friday afternoon. This will maintain a healthy stratocu deck
across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles
or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of
Interstate 65. Subfreezing temps within the boundary layer also
supports the potential for graupel to mix in at times as well. Low
level thermals suggest 45 degrees is probably the upper bound for
temperatures Friday afternoon.

Drier air will gradually advect into the region Friday night as
upper level cyclonic flow relaxes resulting in a slow scattering of
low clouds from the west as the night progresses. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 20s over the entire forecast area.

Saturday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday
with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist
for much of next week. A scattered to broken cu field will linger
Saturday across the northeast half of the forecast area as the upper
low moves away. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into the
Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to
quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of
next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming
trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of
next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s
through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and
lower 30s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 526 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous showers developing at all but KHUF by this
  afternoon

- Gusty northwest winds mid morning continuing into this evening

- MVFR ceilings expected at KLAF/KIND for most of the day and at all
  terminals tonight

Discussion:

A few rain showers continue to track across the northeast half of
central Indiana early this morning. As a much stronger wave aloft
drops south from the Great Lakes...light showers will increase in
coverage by the afternoon and evening across most of the area. MVFR
stratocu will persist at KIND and KLAF for much of the day then
spread to KBMG and KHUF tonight. Northwest wind gusts up to 25kts
will resume later this morning and continue for the rest of the day
before decreasing tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan