124
FXUS63 KIND 212259
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
559 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph overnight, strongest north of I-70.

- Near zero or Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights
  along with potentially dangerous wind chills at or below -10F.

- Increasing confidence in impacts from a winter storm
  this weekend, but uncertainty remains in exact details.

- At least minor impacts from snow expected across much of central
  Indiana with the potential for more significant impacts south of
  the I-70 corridor.

- Very cold temperatures persist into next week with potentially
  dangerous wind chills possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Compact shortwave/vort center over the Mid-MO valley will shift
quickly SE into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Model guidance (even
the CAMS) have been undoing the strength of the surface winds
associated with steep low level lapse rates/strong CAA and a strong
pressure fall/rise couplet over the central plains.

Despite some decrease in the BL lapse rates, have bumped up the
winds and gusts across the forecast area with northern portions of
central Indiana likely to see a few hours of wind gusts from 35-40
mph between 05 and 09Z in the wake of the surface frontal passage.
An SPS will be issued highlighting these wind gusts tonight.

Winds should subside towards morning as the shortwave shifts rapidly
eastward and pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure builds into
the lower Ohio/MS valley. Westerly wind gusts around 20 mph are
expected during the afternoon hours tomorrow owing to another day of
steep low level lapse rates on the fringes of the high pressure
ridge.

High temperatures on Thursday will be colder than today, owing to
the cold advection associated with this compact vort crossing the
region. However, the airmass in the wake of the tonight`s front is a
modified airmass from downslope conditions in the high plains.
Therefore temperatures will not be significantly colder than today
(only -8 deg C fall at 850 mb). Increasing high clouds during the
day will be the prelude to the developing storm system over the
plains which will move into the region this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday night through Friday...

Surface high pressure remaining in control will keep weather
conditions quiet. The main concern during this period is model
guidance continues to be in good agreement showing additional shots
of colder air with an arctic front pushing south. Look for stronger
cold air advection to drop temperatures into the single digits and
teens Thursday night into Friday morning with highs only in the
single digits to teens Friday. Near or slightly below zero lows are
possible for far northwestern counties. These temperatures and
breezy conditions behind the front will likely lead to potentially
dangerous wind chills between -10 to -19F towards daybreak Friday.
Look for wind chills to then remain below zero for most locations
through the day.

Friday night through next Wednesday...

High confidence remains for below normal temperatures to persist
with potentially dangerous wind chills at times as the much colder
airmass settles in. Single digit or near zero lows are likely for
many areas through early next week. Wind chills could be as low as -
10F to -18F at times, primarily over the northwest half of the
forecast area.

The concern then shifts to the synoptic setup over the weekend as
model guidance depicts a strong system developing, likely resulting
in major travel impacts for a large part of the country. The
aforementioned arctic front should settle south of the region by
this weekend leading to a strong baroclinic zone over the mid-south.
Meanwhile aloft, the sub-tropical jet and polar jet will phase
together. This will promote strong divergence within the right
entrance region of an impressive upper level jet supporting surface
cyclogenesis across the mid-south. Strong dynamics combined with an
associated strong LLJ surging anomalous gulf moisture northward
favors widespread wintry precipitation late Saturday into Sunday.

Latest guidance over the past 24 hours has trended further north,
especially the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles leading to higher
confidence in impacts from snow across portions of central Indiana.
That being said, the GFS ensemble continues to remain further south
regarding the storm track and heavier snowfall amounts which limits
confidence in exact details. At least minor impacts appear likely
for much of the area. Locations near or south of the I-70 corridor
have the potential for more significant impacts from heavier
snowfall, especially across far south/southeast portions of central
Indiana, if the more northern solutions in guidance hold. The very
cold airmass in place should promote high SLRs.

Confidence in exact details regarding snow amounts or impacts will
remain limited until models become better aligned. These details
should become clearer over the next 24-48 hours. The greatest chance
for accumulating snow would likely still be across the
south/southeast where the strongest forcing and deepest moisture
should overlap. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely
for any changes so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS between 02-06Z during cargo ops

- Wind shift to WNW with brief gusts 25-35 kts from 05-09Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, as MVFR ceilings
look to remain just east of KBMG early in the period. Otherwise,
some mid and high clouds will be around from time to time.

Winds at 2000ft will increase to around 50 kts between 02-06Z ahead
of a cold front leading to LLWS during this time period (and during
the KIND cargo ops). Behind the cold front, winds are expected to
shift to the WNW and gusts increase to 25-35 kts for a few hour wind
through about 09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50/Crosbie