762
FXUS63 KIND 072353
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
653 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70

- Rain ends this evening

- Well above normal temperatures into next week

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

- Strong storms possible mid-week next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

The back edge of the main area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
continues to move east northeast across the area this afternoon.
This area will exit central Indiana by late afternoon. A rumble of
thunder remains possible with this area, but strong storms are not
expected with limited instability.

Meanwhile, a cold front was approaching the area from central
Illinois. Surface observations show some light rain with the front,
with visibility dropping to a couple of miles in spots. Winds were
gusting to near 30kt ahead and behind the front.

Will have high PoPs across the southeast this afternoon, with lower
PoPs elsewhere outside of the vicinity of the cold front. Will have
a narrow band of higher PoPs with the front as it moves east, up to
the likely category.

This evening, will keep some chance PoPs in the southeast to cover
the front`s exit. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight.
Gusty winds early this evening will diminish as the front moves
farther to the east.

Colder air flowing in will bring temperatures closer to where they
should be in early March, with lows generally in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

High pressure will be the main influence across the area on Sunday.
With cooler and drier air in place, sunny to mostly sunny conditions
are expected for most of the day. With the sunshine, temperatures
will rebound to around 60 for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Sunday night and Monday will be quiet with near zonal upper flow
becoming southwest and high pressure in control. Temperatures will
be well above normal by Monday with highs around 70.

Models are in better agreement that northern and southern stream
systems will phase near the middle of the country and become a
decent upper trough. This trough will move through by around
Thursday.

The system will have a surface cold front and low pressure system
that will bring rain chances from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Integrated water vapor transport progs show plentiful moisture being
brought into the area for the system to work with. This will bring a
threat for heavy rain to the area once again, which could prolong or
worsen ongoing flooding across the southern forecast area.

There is a potential for severe convection around Wednesday as well,
with warm temperatures (70s Tuesday and around 70 Wednesday) working
with the moisture and strong wind fields that are expected to be
present. However, uncertainty remains high in specifics as they will
depend on timing and other details that remain unknown this far out.

Colder air will flow in behind the system and keep temperatures near
or below normal into next weekend. Another (but weaker) low pressure
system could bring some precipitation chances at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts near 25-30kt possible this evening

- MVFR ceilings persisting through much of tonight, IFR possible

Discussion:

A cold front is passing through central Indiana as of the beginning
of the TAF period. The front has passed through all terminals except
BMG, which will occur within the hour.

Gusty winds between 25 to 30 knots are possible with the front as
winds become west-northwesterly. Winds slowly decrease throughout
the night, becoming southwesterly once again Sunday morning.

MVFR ceilings persist through the night with a period of IFR
possible. Clouds should clear up Sunday morning with a return to VFR
conditions by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Eckhoff