071
FXUS63 KIND 180131
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
931 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow likely late tonight into early Wednesday.

- Up to an inch of snow possible. Possible impacts to the
  Wednesday morning commute on untreated roads.

- Light rain chances on Thursday morning.

- Above normal temperatures return late week with highs near 70
  expected Friday and near 80 possible on Saturday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The main focus remains on the arrival of light snowfall ahead of a
weak clipper system. Given that parent wave is passing well to the
north, and a modest amount of low level dry air, there is still some
uncertainty on how far S/E accumulating snow will reach within
Indiana. Current observations still show 10SM visibilities all the
way to the Mississippi River in NW IL. This on top of latest high
resolution guidance indicating a downward trend in QPF over the area,
is leading to less confidence in anywhere in central Indiana nearing
1" tonight, with locations south of I-70 likely to remain at 0.2" or
less. Still, even a few tenths of inch could cause slippery road
conditions tomorrow for the morning commute. The current expectation
is for 0.3-0.6" in the Lafayette to Kokomo regions, with a gradual
decline in expected amounts the closer you get to the I-70
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Rest of the Afternoon...

Have adjusted temps downward thanks to persistent clouds, with highs
expected to remain in the 20s across central Indiana. These are the
coldest temperatures for St. Patrick`s Day since 1941 when the
high temperature at Indianapolis was only 20 degrees! Accumulating
snow has ended, but relatively steep lapse rates from the surface
to 2km and remnant BL moisture has kept flurries going this
afternoon. Flurries will gradually end from the west through 22Z
as the BL continues to dry and inversion tops lower with
increasing subsidence.

Tonight and Wednesday...

The evening will be quiet with increasing mid-high clouds ahead of
the approaching weak clipper system. Light snow is expected to move
in after midnight, with PoPs being bumped up slightly. Some of the
negatives with this system are; fast speed, the fact that the
strongest forcing remains below the favorable dendritic growth zone,
and a large area of drier air below 700 mb which will need to be
saturated before snow develops at the surface. Fairly weak, but
there is noteworthy FGEN in the 850-700 mb layer which should help
in saturating the low levels within an a few hour period.

Given the speed of the system, a short lived 4-6 hr light snow
event is anticipated with minor accums. Both the 00Z and 12Z HREF
12 hr snow amounts ranged from only a few tenths of an inch to a
max member between 1-1.5 inches across central Indiana. Have opted
to take the middle ground with most areas seeing around 0.5 or
less with up to 1 inch in NW portions where slightly longer
snowfall time should boost totals. Despite the minor accumulations,
the only issue worth noting is the timing of the snowfall with
the morning rush hour. Will issue an SPS to account for this
impact to the traveling public.

The snow may mix with or change over to light rain before ending in
the southeast part of the forecast area late tomorrow morning. SW
winds will increase during the afternoon with highs warming into the
40s and 50s by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Wednesday Night into Thursday...

Another weak mid level shortwave will move SE across the western
Great Lakes and upper MS valley ahead of the building upper ridge
over the Rockies/High Plains. Associated WAA and increasing SW flow
may support some elevated showers as mid level WAA kicks in and aids
in saturation. Some of the forecast soundings suggest there is
ever so slight amount of  MUCAPE (100-200 j/kg) centered around
700-600 mb layer that an isolated TS can not be ruled out, but
chances are low enough that have left it out of forecast.

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Shower activity should move quickly out of central Indiana by
Thursday afternoon. As heights continue to build and SW flow
strengthens in the boundary layer, expecting temps to be closer to
75 percent NBM guidance with highs 70-75 Friday and 75-80
Saturday, as opposed to the current NBM forecast highs 62-67 on
Friday and 67-72 on Saturday. Moisture will continue to flow
northward and will keep min RH values relatively high to preclude
any significant fire weather concerns.

Sunday and beyond...

Guidance becomes a little more uncertain going into early next week.
General agreement exists in a pattern change with the upper ridge
over the plains flattening as stronger shortwave energy rides all
the CONUS/Canadian border. Depending on the timing of an associated
cold front, (faster with the Operational Euro) current forecast
NBM temps for Sunday near 70 could be in jeopardy. In addition,
little to no Pops from the NBM during the Sunday to Monday period
is concerning considering the ample moisture (PWAT 150% of
normal) ahead of the front. Albeit it there will be a fairly
stout EML originating from the Desert SW/Plains. By Tuesday
seasonably cool temps and mainly dry conditions are expected with
high pressure building south out of the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Impacts:

- Snow with MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR VIS overnight. Ending by
  15Z at all sites.

- VFR conditions tomorrow afternoon with increasing winds.

Discussion:

A weak storm system will move across the terminals, beginning around
07Z at KLAF and ending around 13Z at KIND and KBMG. VFR ceilings
will likely remain until this system arrives, with MVFR ceilings and
MVFR visibilities developing from west to east. Pockets of IFR
visibilities are possible mainly at KIND/KLAF. Snow and MVFR
conditions are expected to improve between 12 and 15Z from west to
east. Winds will remain out of the S/SSW throughout the TAF period,
but there may be periods of gusts tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Updike