204
FXUS63 KIND 062336
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal, especially
  Thursday and Friday

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Saturday, with widespread
  moderate rainfall totals possible

- Seasonably chilly weather returns this weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

A weak surface low over southern lower Michigan will continue to
push off to the east overnight. A cold front is passing through the
area at the moment, and some clearing is making it into southwestern
portions of the area as expected. A few stray sunbeams may make it
as far as Indy  metro before sunset, but the persistent inversion
aloft will likely allow for redevelopment of low stratus overnight
across much of the area before further drying aloft and a resumption
of low level warm advection on Wednesday allows substantial clearing
during the day tomorrow. Despite cool advection, the cloud cover
will limit diurnal cooling, with lows dropping into the mid 30s to
around 40 tonight. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid
50s across most of the area with plentiful sunshine by mid to late
morning and southerly surface flow resuming.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Temperatures through the remainder of the work week will remain well
above normal, with low to mid 60s likely for much of the area
Thursday and Friday despite rain potential.

Ridging will keep the area dry through at least Wednesday night,
with a developing panhandle low ahead of a large scale upper trough
pushing northeast into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night
bringing the next opportunity for rainfall, with chances highest
Thursday night. Stability indices suggest at least an isolated
thunder potential Thursday night as well.

A couple of upper level vort maxes are likely to combine over the
central CONUS Friday into Friday night, allowing for development of
a second, likely stronger low pressure system over the western Gulf
coast/lower Mississippi valley as we move into the weekend, which
would then push rapidly north/northeastward into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes as well, likely bringing another round of widespread
precipitation to the area.

At this point, it appears we will be plenty warm enough for the
majority of this precipitation to fall as rain, but trends will need
to be monitored. Some low chances for light snow will be necessary
towards the tail end of the low`s influence Saturday night.

Late in the weekend into early next week, high pressure will keep
the area dry but significantly cooler, with Sunday looking to be the
coldest day with highs back down into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 635 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR ceilings into Wednesday with brief exceptions at
  HUF/BMG

Discussion:

A system departing to our northeast will bring a brief period of
west-northwesterly winds tonight into Wednesday. This may allow for
MVFR ceilings to once again drift southward back into the HUF/BMG
corridor. MVFR stratus likely persists into the early afternoon
hours Wednesday.

Gradual clearing become increasingly likely later Wednesday as
surface high pressure passes to our east, allowing winds to become
southerly. High cirrus begins increasing as well towards the end of
the TAF period ahead of the next system.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff