046
FXUS63 KIND 051319
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
919 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler weather today through much of the first half
  of the upcoming week. Frost/freeze potential exists Monday and
  Tuesday nights

- Warmer weather returns for the second half of the upcoming week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Lower stratus within the trailing cold pool has settled over most of
the forecast area this morning as cold advection continues. 13Z
temperatures were primarily in the upper 30s and lower 40s with
brisk W/NW winds keeping wind chills in the 30s.

An upper level wave will pivot east across the region into the
afternoon which will aid in maintaining a modest amount of stratus
into the early afternoon. Eventually as low level mixing increases
and drier air begins to advect into the region from the west...
ceilings will lift with a gradual scattering of stratocu from the
west through the afternoon. It will remain brisk all day with wind
gusts peaking at 25 to 30mph at times before dropping off near
sunset.

Low level thermals support highs largely in the low to mid 50s with
the coolest readings northeast of the Indy metro where clouds will
take longest to scatter. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Much of the short term will be much cooler behind the cold front
that passed through the area yesterday. Temperatures will be below
normal through Tuesday night with highs in the 40s to 50s and
lows in the 30s or below. Wednesday will see a swing back to above
normal temps. A couple of passing surface highs will help keep
conditions dry through at least midweek.

The cooler airmass is being supported by NW flow aloft as well as at
the surface. A large surface high over the central plains will start
to influence conditions for central Indiana later today, starting to
strengthen subsidence and clear out skies this evening into the
overnight. Strong winds aloft will bring continued gusts near 25 mph
for much of the day, but will quickly drop off after sunset.

A stronger surface high will then make its way from central Canada
down through the Great Lakes, pulling in another surge of cooler air
Monday night into Tuesday. Monday night is expected to see mostly
clear skies and northerly winds near 10 mph. The winds prevent the
best conditions of radiational cooling, but still expected lows to
drop below freezing and into the upper 20s for at least the northern
half of the forecast area. Frost or freeze headlines will likely be
needed, so plan to cover any sensitive plants.

Once the surface high drifts NE of the area, surface winds will
shift to out of the south Wednesday, ending the short term with a
return to above normal temperatures, in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Expectation for late this week into the weekend remains a return to
above normal temperatures and the beginnings of a return to active
weather.

The strong Canadian high will be moving off the east coast by 00Z
Thursday, with a northern stream low moving eastward along or just
north of the international border. An elongated cold front
stretching from this low back to the central high Plains will stall
somewhere near or just north of the region late week and may produce
multiple opportunities for convection, though model disagreement
precludes much more than low chance PoPs until very late in the
period.

There is little to indicate significant severe threats during the
latter portion of the forecast, and this is backed up by
experimental machine learning guidance. That said, week two outlooks
continue to indicate enhanced likelihood of warmer than normal and
above normal precipitation conditions, thus we may well be back in
an active pattern for mid to late April.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Impacts:

- Period of high end MVFR ceilings this morning

- Winds gusting 20-25KT from 290-310 degrees from mid morning
  through the afternoon

Discussion:

In the wake of a cold front, northwest winds will be sustained from
10-17KT today with gusts of 20-25KT from mid morning through sunset.
An area of high end MVFR stratus will pass through the sites this
morning associated with the upper trough, but mixing should help to
break this up a bit and raise ceilings back to VFR by midday to
early afternoon.

Gusts will end in typical diurnal fashion this evening and skies
will go mostly clear.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. &&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield