570
FXUS63 KIND 062302
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions continuing into Thursday morning, with a
  low chance for showers Thursday afternoon and night north

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with showers and perhaps a
  thunderstorm Friday afternoon into Friday night

- Additional chances for showers and a storm or two late in the
  weekend and again mid week, with temperatures remaining near
  to below normal

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Guidance continues to indicate that the next week or so will be
dominated by large scale cyclonic flow across much of the nation.
This will produce a continued pattern of near to below normal
temperatures and multiple opportunities for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

Quiet, dry, and cool weather is expected tonight into Thursday
morning under the influence of surface high pressure to the
southeast. Will carry low chances for showers tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow night across the northern portions of the area as a
broad upper level impulse swings through the broader cyclonic flow,
aided by large scale ascent on the poleward side of a curved jet
streak. A significant lack of instability and dry low level air will
limit intensity and amounts of any precip, as well as make thunder
unlikely.

A slightly more substantial disturbance, accompanied by a weak
surface reflection, will require higher rain chances Friday into
Friday night, as well as an isolated thunder threat given the
additional forcing for ascent, as well as deeper saturation. Minimal
instability will prevent an appreciable severe threat, though
hydrologic concerns will need to monitored given precipitation
amounts on the order of 150 to 300 percent of normal in the past 7-
14 days, which has already produced minor flooding in many areas,
and primed smaller watersheds to quick response to heavy downpours.
Precipitable water values will be notable but not extreme
- roughly 75th-80th percentile climatologically, which should keep
the flood threat more localized.

A relatively quick approach of another boundary will force surface
flow back to the southwest on Saturday, which, along with plentiful
sunshine, will help to drive high temperatures into the low to mid
70s and may represent the most pleasant day of the next week.

The aforementioned boundary will push through the area Sunday,
bringing another round of rain chances along with additional low
chances for thunder. Precipitable water values will again be
enhanced but unremarkable, though antecedent conditions will again
require monitoring of the hydrologic situation. Minimal instability
will again be present, however, limiting strength of any storms that
do develop.

A brief break under the influence of an axis of surface high
pressure can be expected early next week with temperatures again
about 5-10 degrees below normal, with additional disturbances
bringing low chances for showers as we move into mid week.
Uncertainty increases as we get toward the end of the seven day
period, as model discrepancies grow. There is some indication that a
brief warmup may occur late in the period as shortwave ridging
pushes eastward, but other guidance indicates a persistence of
broader cyclonic flow into and beyond the end of the seven day
period, which would keep temperatures suppressed. Longer range
outlooks indicate more persistent warmth may wait until well into
the week 2 if not the week 3-4 period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance of fog near sunrise at most sites

Discussion:

Broken VFR ceilings between BKN060-BKN090 will continue at times
early in the period, then mainly high clouds are expected at times
into Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon, more scattered to perhaps
broken clouds around 6000FT will move in from the northwest. A few
showers are possible late in the period, mainly at KLAF.

The other concern will be the potential for fog near sunrise. Winds
not far off the surface may be enough to produce enough motion to
prevent fog, and higher clouds will also be moving in. Thus, while
the odds remain non-zero, feel odds are too low to include.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Nield