714
FXUS63 KIND 291738
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
138 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and possibly a rumble of thunder this afternoon and
  evening

- Below normal temps to continue through the weekend with frost
  possible Saturday and Sunday

- Slow warm up with rain chances returning early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Overview.

Generally quiet weather is expected for much of the 7 days with the
synoptic pattern being dominated by cyclonic flow aloft associated
with a deep low across the Great Lakes. The first round of rain will
be this afternoon and evening with weak instability due to cold air
aloft. Additional chances for rain arrive Thursday night into Friday
as another weak shortwave moves through the broader flow. Cyclonic
flow will then become weaker towards the weekend with a cold air
mass bringing marginally favorable conditions for frost Saturday and
Sunday mornings. Additional rain chances return early next week as
another low moves in from the northwest.

Rest of Today through Friday.

The primary forecast challenge through the next 24 hours revolves
around the potential for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
across central Indiana in the aftermath of the exiting system that
brought active weather to the state over the last few days. Mid-
level water vapor imagery reveals a compact shortwave trough
pivoting across the broader cyclonic flow across Great Lakes,
providing modest ascent and allowing for at least isolated showers
through the early evening. With the CAA aloft, temperatures will
continue to cool even as the surface slowly warms which will allow
for a skinny CAPE profile up to around 12-15kft. This low LFC will
help to limit the thunder potential with the LFC expected to remain
at or warmer than -10C, but the strongest cells of the day could
produce a few rumbles of thunder or graupel.

As we transition into Thursday, cyclonic flow will continue with
another shortwave bringing additional showers during the late
overnight into Friday. Recent model runs have trended to towards a
slightly more robust shortwave even as timing differences continue,
so will plan on bringing POPs up slightly during the overnight hours
and early Friday. Moisture return will be somewhat limited by the
preceding dry air mass, so any precipitation should remain light and
primarily shower-based rather than widespread heavy rain.

Saturday Through Wednesday.

Attention then shifts to the potential for frost as we head into the
weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air behind the Friday front will
drop temperatures well below seasonal norms, with highs struggling
to reach the 60 degree mark. On Saturday morning, the surface
high pressure ridge axis remains slightly to the northwest, which
may keep enough of a breeze and cloud cover in place to limit
widespread frost with patchy to areas of frost more likely.
However, by Sunday morning, the ridge axis is forecast to settle
directly over or just south of central Indiana. Radiational
cooling looks more favorable Saturday night into Sunday but with
the surface flow becoming more southerly, there remains some
question as to how cool temperatures fall and whether it will be
cold enough for frost.

Looking ahead to next week, a gradual pattern shift is anticipated
as the persistent eastern trough begins to deamplify. A modest
warmup is expected to bring temperatures back toward late-spring
normals by Monday and Tuesday. While latest ensemble guidance
suggests low probabilities for precipitation early in the week due
to weak shortwaves in the west-northwest flow, confidence in
significant rainfall is low. Recent frontal intrusions into the Gulf
have suppressed deeper moisture, which will likely keep any early-
week activity disorganized and moisture-starved.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers this afternoon, with a low chance of thunder at
  KIND and KLAF
- Northwesterly winds up to 25kts this afternoon, ending towards 00Z

Discussion:

Cigs have risen to VFR with expectations of VFR conditions through
the TAF period outside of brief MVFR vsbys during showers this
afternoon. Coverage of showers is expected to be minimal and not
worthy of a mention in the TAF at this time. Northwesterly winds
have begun to gust as high as 20kts with expectations of gusts up to
25kts through 00Z before gusts come to an end. Additional gusts will
be possible towards tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White