887
FXUS63 KIND 310050
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries or light snow showers possible over mainly
  the northeast half of central Indiana this evening into the
  overnight hours

- Greater risk for snow and light accumulations Wednesday
  night along and northeast of Interstate 74

- Seasonably cold through much of the rest of the week with
  temperatures warming by late this weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Have made some adjustments to the going forecast based on area
surface observations, regional radar trends, and high resolution
model soundings.

Some flurries or light snow showers have begun to reach the ground
across mainly the northern/northeastern half of the area, and with
slightly more substantial returns inbound, have increased PoPs a bit
and brought the snow/flurry mention further south. A light dusting,
to perhaps a couple of tenths in spots, cannot be ruled out, but
minimal impact is anticipated.

The only minor complication is a couple of reports over eastern and
northern Illinois of light freezing drizzle, likely on the periphery
of the more substantial radar returns where moisture thins a bit and
cloud ice is lost. This should be very isolated and quite light at
worst, but will monitor and adjust as needed.

Temperatures should be nearly steady through the night with the
expansive cloud cover and increasing low level thicknesses.

Made minor adjustments late tomorrow into tomorrow evening based on
latest forecast soundings as well to slightly speed up arrival of
snow, but general forecast for the primary time frame to be
afternoon into evening remains roughly intact. Could pick up an inch
or less along the I-74 corridor, with around an inch to an inch and
a half or so along and northeast of a Lafayette to New Castle line
by the time snow winds down tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure
stretching from eastern TX to MO/IL and NW Indiana. A weak trough
was found over MN and IA. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a deep
low over Quebec and ridging in place over the western CONUS. This
was resulting in an quick and cold NW flow aloft. A pair of upper
level disturbances were shown in the flow over eastern WI and SW
Ontario. Neither of these were producing any precipitation. Dew
point temperatures across Indiana were quite dry, ranging from the
upper single digits to around 15. GOES19 shows mid and high clouds
upstream over WI, IL and Ontario associated with these upper
disturbances. These clouds were quickly diving southeast toward
central Indiana.

Tonight...

Models show the upper waves quickly pushing across north and eastern
parts of Indiana while the weak surface trough passes across Indiana
overnight. Forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation through
the night as these features pass. In fact, the lower levels across
the forecast area remain dry while passing clouds are shown aloft.
This is representative of the very dry air mass that remains in
place at the surface due to our recent arctic air mass that has
passed across the area. HRRR suggests some very light returns across
the OKK-MIE areas, but given the dry air mass, we will mention only
flurries.  Regarding temperatures, the core of the cold air mass is
drifting farther east, thus some warmer air is arriving along with
expected cloud cover. Thus lows in the lower 20s will expected.

Wednesday...

Mainly dry weather is expected during the last day of the year.
Models show the persistent northwest flow aloft remaining in place
while the previous disturbances have exited east and no new
disturbances are introduced. The weak surface troughing is suggested
to exit in the morning before another cold front arrives over
Northern Illinois, arriving for late Wednesday. Models are hinting
at some snow across Central Indiana during the afternoon ahead of
this boundary, but confidence is low due to an overall lack of
forcing across Central Indiana until later on Wednesday Night. Still
some low chance pops will be used. A cloudy day is expected as the
departing surface trough and the newly approaching second trough
will provide cyclonic flow within the lower levels. Time heights and
forecast soundings suggest lower level saturation indicative of
stratus.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as westerly
flow persists in the wake of the departed surface trough along with
minimal advection. Some thermal packing is suggested late in the day
across northern Indiana near the front. Still, highs in the lower
and middle 30s appear on the mark.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Much of the long term will see pretty persistent NW flow aloft,
helping to keep colder temps around. Some models are showing the
upper flow shifting more zonal by the start of next week, which
could return near to slightly above normal temperatures at least
briefly. At the surface, numerous quick moving high pressure systems
are expected to pass through, so looking at minimal to no PoPs much
of next week. The main exception however comes New Year`s Eve into
the early hours of the New Year, when some snow is expected due to a
passing upper wave with an associated cold front. A few more waves
could pass through but at this time (potentially Saturday and early
next week), there doesn`t look to be enough lift or moisture with
these to bring more than additional cloud coverage.

For New Year`s Eve celebrations, expect temperatures in the mid 20s
to mid 30s as the ball drops. Snow could start as early as the
afternoon hours on the 31st and continue into the early hours of the
1st. Snow accumulations are mainly expected along and near the I-74
corridor and N - most of this area for central Indiana will likely
see a few tenths of snow, but as much as an inch to 1.5 inches could
be possible in the far north. Watch out for the possibility of slick
roads if you are out and about.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 555 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions developing overnight and on Wednesday.

- Scattered light snow showers at KLAF overnight.

- Snow showers with occasional IFR visibilities late Wednesday
  afternoon at KLAF and KIND.

Discussion:

A weak storm system will move SE across the lower Great Lakes into
the Appalachians overnight aiding in lowering ceilings into MVFR
by 12Z Wednesday at all the terminal sites. Very light snow
showers will impact KLAF with occasional MFVR visibilities
overnight but are expected to stay far enough to the north of KIND
for only VCSH.

Another slightly further south weak storm system will move SE into
the region Wednesday afternoon into early New Years Day. Occasional
IFR visibilities are expected at KIND and KLAF with snow waiting
until after 00Z for KHUF/KBMG. Winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon with occasional gusts over 20 kts at KIND/KLAF out of the
WSW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Crosbie