018
FXUS63 KIND 071340
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather today, low chances for rain Wednesday across
  southern Indiana

- Daily chances for showers and storms return Thursday into next
  week

- Greatest coverage Thursday night into Friday where isolated
  flooding will be possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Sunnier start to the morning versus Sunday and Monday as high
pressure to the north exerts its influence over the region. Much
less coverage to stratus earlier and most of it has already
diminished. 13Z temperatures were in the 70s.

Forecast is in excellent shape. Drier air will continue to advect
south into the region through the course of the day with high clouds
and diurnal cu gradually being forced south this afternoon closer to
the deeper moisture plume which is now largely south of the Ohio
River. This will also keep any scattered convection south of the
forecast area for the rest of the day.

Highs will be in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Zone and grid
updates out.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Overview.

Dry and quiet weather today before rain chances increase in the
coming days. Wednesday will be mostly dry across central Indiana,
except for a few isolated afternoon storms in the far south. A
front is then expected to stall over the region from Thursday
through the weekend. This setup will bring daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. While organized severe weather is not
expected, heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms will create a
risk for localized flash flooding late in the week and through the
weekend.

Today through Wednesday.

Patchy fog is expected to form over the next few hours with
generally light winds and dew point depressions dropping to near
zero. Coverage is likely to be similar to the last few days with
patchy, non-dense fog along with widespread low stratus.

Today the weak surface low that has brought pockets of rain to
the area in recent days departs toward the East Coast, allowing
weak surface high pressure and drier air to advect into the region
from the north. Concurrently, rising mid-level heights and large-
scale subsidence will strongly suppress convective development
across most of the area. The exception will be towards the Ohio
River, which remain positioned along the periphery of the
retreating moisture plume where weak low-level convergence may
yield isolated, diurnally driven afternoon convection. High
temperatures will track near seasonal normals in the mid to upper
80s.

On Wednesday, ensemble guidance shows a mid-level ridge axis
shifting over the region. This ridge will begin to suppress
southward late in the period as a weak upper-level closed low
migrates through the lower Ohio Valley and heights begin to fall
over the Great Lakes. However, persistent dry air in the mid-
levels and accompanying large-scale subsidence will continue to
cap the environment across central Indiana. Any storms will remain
tightly confined to the immediate southern forecast area
boundary. Seasonable temperatures will continue, with values
hovering in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday Through Monday.

After a quiet stretch, the pattern will begin to transition on
Thursday. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to dig into
the Great Lakes, driving a surface cold front southward. This
frontal boundary will stall and become quasi-stationary across the
Ohio Valley from Friday through Sunday, likely lingering into next
Monday. The stagnation is driven by a flat, broad subtropical ridge
anchored over the Gulf Coast states, which forces the mid- to upper-
level steering flow to run parallel to the surface front, limiting
further southward progression.

Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level
shortwaves will propagate along the stalled frontal zone. This
continuous upper-level support will interact with a deeply saturated
troposphere, as a replenished moisture reservoir yields PWAT values
hovering near 2 inches. This high-PWAT environment will favor
daily convective clusters and multi-cell arrays from Thursday
through Monday. Given weak deep-layer wind shear, organized or
long- lived severe weather is not anticipated.

However, strong localized precipitation loading within robust
updrafts could generate isolated downburst wind gusts. High
precipitation efficiency and the high probability of training cells
along the stationary boundary will make localized heavy rainfall and
flash flooding the primary threats. High temperatures will be muted
by extensive cloud cover and precipitation, generally remaining in
the mid-80s. Drier Canadian air will remain locked well to the
north, keeping surface dewpoints elevated through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs through 13Z

Discussion:

Patchy non-dense fog is expected to continue for another couple of
hours along with a lower chance for low stratus. Any fog/stratus
should dissipate by 13-14Z with VFR conditions expected through the
remainder of the TAF period. Diurnal cu around 050 is expected to
form after 16Z and will then dissipate towards 00Z. Winds will
generally be out of the north at 7-12kts today followed by 3-7kts
tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White