487
FXUS63 KIND 121413
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
913 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds up to 30 mph, diminishing this afternoon. Gusty
  winds return on Tuesday up to 30 mph.

- Low rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday...with snow showers
  at times late Wednesday into the early weekend

- Well-below normal temperatures possible late this weekend into
  early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows a large area of high
pressure stretching from Texas across the deep south to the
Virginias. Low pressure was well to the north over Hudson Bay. This
was resulting SSW flow across Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor
showed weak ridging over the Rockies, which was leading to northwest
flow aloft over Indiana. GOES16 shows a band of clouds over IL and
NW Indiana, pushing SE within the flow aloft.

A quiet and warmer weather day is in store. 850MB surface shows warm
air advection in play today as cold air exits east. Surface high to
the south will continue to block Gulf flow, allowing for dry but
mild Pacific air to arrive. Mid and high cloud mass seen upstream
should pass across the are through the day, leading to a partly
cloudy afternoon. Given our warm air advection, highs in the lower
40s appear on the mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Yesterday`s deep upper-level trough has rapidly departed eastward,
leaving broad northwesterly flow in its place. Embedded within this
flow is a weak vort max currently moving over the Great Lakes
region. At the surface, high pressure has passed to our south
allowing winds to become southwesterly. Wind speeds and gustiness
are expected to increase this morning as the vort max makes its
closest approach. Diurnal mixing timed with the maximum MSLP
gradient should promote wind gusts between 25-35mph at times. Speeds
and gusts decrease during the afternoon hours as the system departs.

A period of mid/high-level cloudiness is anticipated with the
passing system as well. The short-lived period of broken or
overcast skies should begin to clear early in the afternoon,
allowing for a period of mostly clear skies. Modest warm air
advection from the southwest combined with efficient mixing and
sunshine will allow for a warmer day than yesterday. Highs in the
40s are expected for most of the area.

Though the MSLP gradient relaxes a bit following the departing
system, it doesn`t relax completely. With surface high pressure
remaining well to our south, a southwesterly breeze is expected to
persist into the night tonight. As such, lows will likewise be
warmer than the day before though still below freezing. Expect lows
in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The CONUS will remain in a East Coast troughing pattern through a
majority of the long term, placing the Ohio Valley on the western
extent. This will lead to variable temperature swings, beginning
with much above normal temperatures on Tuesday. The surge of warm
air to begin the long term will be through westerly WAA out ahead of
a very positively tilted upper trough. Current expectation is for
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, but given strength of WAA, a few
areas may exceed 55. Wind gusts Tuesday afternoon should also be
fairly strong (between 20-25kt) as the PBL lifts to above 3000ft,
mixing into a 25-35kt LLJ.

There is some chances for rain later on Tuesday as a cold front
dives southward. However, due to the lack of southerly low level
flow ahead of the front, minimal convergence is expected along the
passing low level boundary late Tuesday, limiting rain coverage. If
rain does occur, most areas should see less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures will fall off quickly Wednesday as this surge of cold
air behind the aforementioned front reinforces upper level troughing
over the region. This will be further supported by a strong Rex
block over the West Coast, promoting a strong N to S oriented jet
streak later this week over the Inter-Mountain west and a retrograde
to the upper level troughing. This will place the trough axis much
closer to the Ohio Valley. In return, much colder temperatures are
expected towards the end of the long term, with multiple chances for
light snow along passing weak shortwaves. Best chance for snow as of
this forecast issuance is late Friday through Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 25-30kt this morning into the afternoon
- Gusty winds resume on Tuesday with gusts to 30kt

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings have departed to the east, leaving VFR conditions in
place which are expected to persist through the TAF period.

South-southwest winds between 5-10kt are expected through sunrise
today, before diurnal mixing allows speeds and gustiness to
increase. Winds sustained between 15-20kt gusting 25-30kt are
likely. Winds should diminish later this afternoon as a system to
our north exits eastward. Winds increase again on Tuesday as another
system approaches passes by to our northwest. Expect SW wind gusts
up to 30kt late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

A period of BKN/OVC mid/high-level cloud cover is likely this
morning as the aforementioned system passes by.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Eckhoff