392
FXUS63 KIND 270534
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blowing and drifting snow, especially in rural areas, possible
  tonight into Tuesday morning

- Extreme Cold Warning tonight with wind chills between -20 to -25
  degrees

- Dangerous wind chills through at least Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Winds have shifted to the SW ahead to an approaching weak shortwave.
This is keeping winds elevated at 8-12kt this evening, of which is
likely keeping temperatures from completely plummeting after dusk
despite dew point temperatures between -7 and -10F. Still, slow
drops are expected over the next few hours under mostly clear skies,
with overnight lows of around -2 to -5F occurring between midnight
and 2AM EST.

Temperatures are still expected to rise slightly before dawn within
stronger winds and increased cloud cover ahead of the aforementioned
wave. Wind chill values will likely remain stagnant from midnight
onwards as marginal temperature increases early this morning are
counteracted by increasing winds. Expected wind chills of around -18
to -23F.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Skies have cleared behind yesterday`s storm system as surface high
pressure passes closely to our southwest. The high quickly skirts
south of us with southwesterly winds returning by tonight. Further
north, a weak clipper zips eastward over the northern Great Lakes
tonight. A tightening MSLP gradient between the two will allow for a
potent low-level jet to develop overnight.

With relatively clear skies currently overhead, we`ll see a brief
period of efficient radiative cooling right after sunset. Low
temperatures tonight likely occur before midnight before SW winds
and clouds begin to increase. Expect lows between 0 to -5 with
locally colder readings. Wind chills down to -20 to -25 are possible
before a gradual warming trend begins late in the night. As such, an
Extreme Cold Warning will remain in effect tonight.

Despite the potency of the LLJ, the upstream air mass is still very
cold along with a deep snowpack extending all the way back to Texas.
Therefore, even though high temperatures tomorrow may be 10 to 20
degrees warmer than the previous day...they will still be very cold.
Highs in the upper teens to low 20s are about as warm as we`ll see.
The clipper`s attendant cold front arrives late morning or early
afternoon, which puts an end to the brief warm up. Clouds associated
with the clipper begin to dissipate during the afternoon as well.

Another period of efficient radiative cooling is likely tomorrow
night into Wednesday morning. This time, it will last through the
night allowing temperatures to cool to well-below zero. Widespread
lows of near -10 are possible, especially in rural areas. Locally
colder readings as low as -15 to -20 cannot be ruled out...though
these readings would likely be outliers.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing continued east coast
troughing with persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Occasional
clipper systems passing to our north may allow for brief periods of
SW return flow, but little in the way of temperature relief is
expected. A strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and positive
Pacific North American pattern add weight to the continuation of the
current weather pattern.

Our primary weather hazard through the coming week will be the cold.
Daily highs well below freezing are expected, with lows at or just
below zero each night through the weekend. Combined with winds,
nightly wind chills of -10 to -20 are possible.

The coldest in terms of ambient air temperatures looks to be
Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure, clear skies, relatively
light wind and a deep snowpack will create optimal radiative cooling
conditions. Lows between -10 to -15 degrees are possible, especially
in rural areas. Another strong surface high arrives later in the
weekend which may allow for another period of very cold ambient air
temperatures.

A potent upper trough looks to drop southward out of Canada this
week into the early weekend. This may allow for a period of
scattered flurries or snow showers at times Wednesday through
Friday. Significant amounts are not expected, as these snow showers
appear light and scattered in nature.

Day 8-14: peeking beyond the Long Range we see good ensemble
agreement on a continuation of our current pattern. Additionally,
the global teleconnections above remain in their current phase
through early February with good ensemble agreement as well. The
combination of negative AO and positive PNA favors troughing over
the eastern US. As such, below-normal temperatures likely continue
into early February.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Impacts:

- Low Level Wind Shear through the night

- Gusts of 20-30KT at times tonight into Tuesday

- Period of MVFR ceilings possible, mainly at IND/LAF this afternoon

Discussion:

Strong winds just off the surface will promote a low level wind
shear concern through daybreak, along with increasing likelihood for
gusts through the night and particularly during the daytime hours on
Tuesday, with gusts approaching 25-30KT at times out of the
southwest through west as the day goes on.

Lower clouds will move in during the day as another cold front
passes through the region. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible,
primarily this afternoon at LAF/IND. Cannot completely rule them out
at HUF/BMG, but guidance has trended higher with ceilings there.

Winds may produce some blowing snow, though it remains to be seen
whether it will be enough to actually impact visibilities/be
observed at the sites after a day or two of compaction of the
snowpack.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Nield