906
FXUS63 KIND 231309
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
909 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances diminish this morning from west to east

- Rain chances return Sunday and will continue for much of the
  next week. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the
  period

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast with conditions
generally evolving as expected. Rainfall is now mostly limited to
light showers across the far southern counties with weak lift behind
the exiting surface low currently across northwestern Ohio. The
lowered visibilities due to patchy fog and drizzle have mostly gone
away with most sites now at or above 6 miles. The low clouds will
persist across the forecast area through the early afternoon
hours before gradually lifting and dissipating.

Forecast highs in the mid 70s look reasonable at this time based on
latest hi-res model guidance and the current expected cloud cover,
but if clouds persist longer than expected a small downward
adjustment may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Early This Morning...

Upper energy along with surface low pressure will continue to
generate scattered to numerous showers along with some drizzle
across central Indiana early this morning. With limited instability,
thunder has been confined to areas south and east of the area, and
even then is isolated.

As the low continues to move slowly northeast, similar conditions
will persist for a while, then coverage will start to diminish
toward 12Z as the low gets farther to the east.

The threat for heavy rain continues to diminish with the chances for
rain, so will likely cancel the Flood Watch early.

Today...

By 12Z, only roughly the eastern half of the area will still have
some PoPs (a tail of which will extend across the southwest early).
Will keep PoPs below the likely category given forcing will be
mainly east of the area. PoPs will then diminish from west to east
during the morning, with most areas dry by early afternoon.

With no real push of dry air behind the system, clouds will likely
linger well into the afternoon before more sunshine appears. This
will keep temperatures relatively cool into the early afternoon,
with most areas experiencing highs late in the day. Those late day
highs will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, with the lowest
readings northeast.

Tonight and Sunday...

Much of the night will be quiet, but as forcing from upper energy
approaches late, some isolated to scattered showers may arrive in
the western third of the area by 12Z Sunday.

Models are hinting that forcing on Sunday could come from two close
but separate upper impulses. How these interact could impact the
timing of the best chances for rain. If their forcing is closer to
each other, showers and storms may move through faster with most of
it east by 20Z (4 PM EDT). However, if one lags, rain will linger
into late afternoon/early evening.

With plentiful moisture lingering behind Saturday`s system, the
impulses should be able to generate numerous showers Sunday
afternoon. Will go likely PoPs most areas, with highest PoPs in the
afternoon. Didn`t try to get detailed with the afternoon PoPs given
the uncertainties mentioned above.

There will be enough instability for a few thunderstorms, but
parameters do not support severe storms.

Lows tonight will be around 60, with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 on Sunday if more cloud cover/shower coverage holds off
until afternoon.

Memorial Day...

Surface high pressure will nudge into the northern forecast area on
Memorial Day and provide dry conditions there. The southern forecast
area will remain close enough to an old front for some low PoPs, but
confidence isn`t high in these PoPs with overall weak forcing.

Tuesday and beyond...

A lingering surface front to the south of the area combined with
moisture and some upper waves at times will keep chances for rain in
the forecast through next week. Stronger upper waves may bring
better chances for rain around Wednesday, but confidence is low in
any details with uncertainties in the timing and strength of the
upper waves.

Above normal temperatures will continue for much of the period, with
perhaps closer to normal readings returning early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 554 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Impacts:

- Poor flying conditions through around 15Z with IFR and LIFR at
  times
- Patchy fog and drizzle/light rain very early in the period
- Gradual improvement from around 15Z onward with VFR potentially
  returning by 22-24Z
- Potential for more fog tonight

Discussion:

Poor flying conditions will persist as surface low pressure exits
the area into the mid-morning hours. Patchy drizzle/fog and light
showers will continue very early in the period.

Some uncertainty remains on how fast ceilings will improve today,
but continued to trend more pessimistic with the return to VFR,
which could occur closer to 00Z Sunday.

If clouds remain scattered long enough tonight, some fog could
develop.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50