994
FXUS63 KIND 201744
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1244 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dreary conditions continue with areas of fog this morning and only
  modest warming today under expansive low cloud cover

- Rain returns late today into tomorrow, amounts up to an inch
  possible

- Additional rainfall early next week with much cooler weather
  likely post-Thanksgiving

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Some changes made to the forecast this morning primarily concern fog
and precipitation potential. Latest trends in high-resolution show
rain arriving a bit later and so PoPs have been trimmed a bit this
evening and into tonight. Additionally, with less in the way of
rainfall the odds of fog lingering into tonight appear higher. We`ve
included patchy fog for the entirety of the CWA after 00z. For the
northern portions of the CWA we`ve included areas of fog. Some
locally dense fog is possible, especially if any clearing occurs
before the large cloud shield associated with the approaching system
arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Continued dreary conditions can be expected today, as a persistent
inversion aloft and only slight warming at the surface allows an
expansive stratus deck to remain in place.

Areas of fog will persist into the morning hours and should improve
midday as light southerly winds help produce very modest boundary
layer mixing.

The blend appears far too warm today. While weak warm advection is
expected, the severe hampering of insolation by the cloud cover
should limit warming to maybe 5-7 degrees at most from the nearly
steady overnight temperatures in the low to mid 40s, bringing
highs into the upper 40s to low 50s.

The continued cloud cover and weak warm advection will keep
temperatures from dropping much tonight as well, with perhaps a
few degrees of diurnal cooling at most, and temperatures steady
much of the night.

As isentropic upglide ramps up late today into tonight, expect
drizzle or light showers to begin to overspread the area.
Midlevel dry air may initially produce more drizzle than rain
before profiles saturate more deeply and forcing for ascent
increases late tonight.

Reductions in visibility may occur again tonight, either in the form
of areas of fog or drizzle. This would be more likely during the
evening hours before more substantial rain scavenges droplets and
significantly improves visibilities.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Friday Through Saturday.

By Friday morning, precipitation is likely to begin across
southwestern Indiana as a low pressure system moves across Kansas
with a warm front stretching eastward to near the Ohio River or
perhaps just to the north. Confidence is increasing that much of
central Indiana will remain just to the north of the warm front
through the course of the event with a good surge of Gulf air
pushing north of the front and undergoing fairly significant
isentropic lift. The best forcing looks to be during the morning and
early afternoon hours with precipitation amounts upwards of a half
inch to an inch likely across the area.

By Friday evening the moisture transfer vectors will be more
westward as the LLJ shifts which should bring an end to the heavier
precipitation even as the front remains stalled near the Ohio River.
The front should fully push southeast by late Friday night into
Saturday morning with precipitation ending and the surface flow
becoming more northerly. There may be some lingering drizzle with
low clouds persisting, but otherwise expect generally dry conditions
for much of the day.

Sunday Through Wednesday.

Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather are then expected for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week with weak southerly
flow across Indiana as the jet stream remains locked to the north.
Confidence has gradually been ticking up on the timing of the next
low pressure system impacting central Indiana Monday night into
Tuesday with another surge of Gulf air moving northward and
interacting another front. Central Indiana will remain in the warm
sector through much of early Tuesday with some evidence of a dry
slot somewhere along the I-69 corridor sandwiched between broader
TROWAL precipitation to the northwest and the stronger forcing with
the Gulf air to the south. The front is then expected to pass through
by Tuesday night with only lingering light precipitation continuing
into early Wednesday.

Thursday Into The Weekend.

Looking at the Thanksgiving forecast and beyond, strong wrap-around
flow behind the system will keep conditions fairly breezy Wednesday
night into Thursday with cooler air working into the area. A
seasonably strong low pressure system to the north will further
increase CAA into the weekend which keeps confidence high in much
cooler air and breezy conditions bringing quite chilly wind chills.
Details remain uncertain as to exact temperatures/wind chills but
confidence is high in cooler than normal temperatures and a lower
end potential for some light snow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions improving to low end MVFR later
  this afternoon at some sites

- Return to IFR this evening into tonight with LIFR conditions
  expected at most sites by late tonight

- Drizzle or light showers moving in tonight into Friday morning

Discussion:

Widespread low stratus and fog continue across the area with
IFR/LIFR conditions. Some light drizzle has been reported at times
as well.

Gradual improvement in ceilings and visibilities is expected over
the next few hours, with low end MVFR returning for a time this
afternoon into early evening, before deteriorating back to IFR and
eventually LIFR overnight. Some sites may not improve to MVFR
similar to yesterday so will continue to monitor this.

Drizzle or light showers will move in during the overnight hours
with conditions again deteriorating as previously mentioned. Areas
of fog are also expected, especially across the northern half of
central Indiana where precipitation will take longer to move in.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo/Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Melo