995
FXUS63 KIND 231851
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
251 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today with a warming trend through the workweek.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday Night,
  some of which may be severe.

- Cooler on Friday, with a warming trend resuming over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The cool, windy conditions will continue through the afternoon and
evening as central Indiana remains within broad upper level
troughing and N/NW flow. Initially, surface high pressure beneath a
shallow saturated layer led to mostly cloud skies. However,
afternoon mixing has allowed for breaks, with a scattered to broken
cloud deck now across most of central Indiana. Increasing
downwelling radiation will try to counteract the CAA this afternoon,
but we will still likely remain in the mid 40s, about 10 degrees
below normal for late March.

A strong surface high will continue to develop over the Mississippi
Valley throughout the day, veering winds to the NNE and eventually
ENE tomorrow morning. Winds will stabilize be likely remain elevated
early tonight around 8-12kt, but eventually subside in the morning
hours with sustained winds between 4-7kt throughout tomorrow. Less
winds along with slight 850mb warming and a warm March sun will
increase temperatures for tomorrow. Expect highs back near normal in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A moderately negative PNA with a positive NAO has led to a
consistent Intermountain West ridge to East Coast trough pattern, of
which is expected to continue through most of the long term. This in
combination with a slowly lifting polar jet will kick off multiple
vort maxes east of the Canadian Rockies, of which will the main
source of weather for central Indiana late this week into early next
week. Current expectation is for 3 to 4 day swings of slow warming
trends following by frontal passages dropping temperature briefly
below normal.

For the middle of the week, this pattern will initially lead to broad
W to NW flow in the 700 to 300mb layer, keeping conditions
relatively seasonal on Wednesday. There is a weak signal for a
shortwave passage Wednesday night into Thursday that could provide
scattered convection within modest mid level lapse rates, but
confidence is low at this time. By midday Thursday, the lower levels
(surface to 850mb) will begin to shift to the SW ahead of one of the
aforementioned vort maxes, leading to strong WAA across the Ohio
Valley and temperatures rising well into the 70s, and potentially
nearing 80 again depending on the thermodynamics of the PBL.

The low to the north will become mature late on Thursday, with a
steep baroclinic zone and NW flow backing the progression of the
CAA. This will likely lead to a frontal passage late Thursday
through Thursday night, pushing temperatures back below seasonal to
end the work week. This front will also increase precipitation and
thunder chances for Thursday evening. This severe setup looks very
similar to yesterday with a strong, positively tilted trough pushing
eastward and a subsequent nocturnal low level jet overriding a
passing front. This may lead to anafrontal development once again,
with elevated storms intensifying behind a shallow but strong cold
front surging southward. Details still need to be ironed out,
including timing and how steep mid/upper-level lapse rates are which
will determine storm intensity behind the front. Shear is plentiful,
and given the elevated nature of modeled convection it would appear
large hail is again the primary hazard.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Impacts:

- Temporary MVFR ceilings through 21z
- Veering winds from NNW to ENE with gusts

Discussion:

Brisk northerly winds continue behind a cold front that passed
through yesterday. Winds out of the north to north-northwest are
sustained between 12-15kt gusting to 20-25kt at times. Gusts should
begin to subside early this evening, and veer to the NNE through
03z. Overnight, winds should diminish further, with sustained
winds out of the ENE below 10kt from 08z onwards.

An MVFR cloud deck is slowly eroding from west to east across
central Indiana this afternoon, with KHUF and KLAF mostly VFR as of
17z. KIND and KBMG will be slower to reach VFR, with temporary MVFR
through 21z. VFR ceilings are expected for the remained of the TAF
period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Updike