811
FXUS63 KIND 141905
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
305 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and
  storms. Friday likely to be the driest day of the week.

- Scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening for Central
and North Central Indiana, scattered severe possible.

- Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with
multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An MCS over the upper Mississippi Valley decayed over central IL
early this morning, but its outflow boundary continued to push
through central Indiana, of which led to isolated thunderstorms and
showers north and west of Indianapolis. This boundary is now
stalling over central IL as it interacts with modest SW flow ahead
of a developing low pressure system. Visible satellite imagery is
starting to define this boundary, of which is currently along a line
from Bloomington to Terre Haute; this is supported by the mass
fields in the surface analysis. North/East of this boundary there is
still signals of some mid-level stability both in the cloud features
and from ACAR sounding analysis at KIND. However to its South/West,
modest moisture advection is aiding in quick destabilization
showcased by areas of "popcorn" cumulus.

Convective initiation is expected to begin over the next few hours
over this area, quickly pushing eastward, reaching central Indiana
between 4 and 6PM. Cells initially could begin elevated, but should
quickly erode the weak cap and become surface based with
progression. Parameter spacing for severe weather is rather robust
today with an expected 2-3 kJ/kg of CAPE and greater than 40kt of
effective shear. This should allow for organized/strong updrafts to
develop with a broad risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail.
While tornadoes are not the primary threat, there will be a chance
of isolated tornadoes this evening. The primary concern will be with
cells that become highly deviant along the aforementioned boundary
and brief spin-ups within cell mergers.

The severe threat should wane after 02Z as subsidence on the
backside of the MCS increases convective inhibition. Focus will then
turn to upstream convection over the western Great Lakes. The
primary threat will likely stay well to the north overnight, but
residual outflow boundaries tomorrow could focus initiation over
northern portions of the area in the morning and early afternoon,
with the thunderstorm threat continuing into the early evening.
Confidence in specific locations for thunderstorms is low, and will
greatly depend on the evolution and progression of upstream
convection tonight. Instability will remain high tomorrow but shear
will not be quite as organized leading to a lower overall severe
threat, with a marginal threat of damaging winds and large hail for
most of central Indiana.

The active pattern will continue into the
weekend with multiple waves bringing additional chances for storms
then upper ridging expected to bring drier and cooler air for the
start of the new week.

Wednesday night will start off with an upper short wave tracking
from the central plains to the Great Lakes with showers and storms
along and ahead of the associated cold front. Main threats with this
system will be lightning and stronger wind gusts mixing down within
stronger storms.

The persistent SW flow will prolong the above normal temperatures
through Saturday as highs will range from the 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the 50s to 60s.

Friday will see a break in rain chances then a deep trough will
prompt another round storms for Saturday. Models show that the
surface low with this system will be unaligned and tracking ahead
of its upper component. This will potentially make Saturday`s
system more diurnally driven rather than synoptically forced. At
this time, strong deep layer flow will be parallel to the cold
front which could be enough to form a line of storms with damaging
winds being the main concern. Outside of storms, stronger gusts
are likely Saturday and into Sunday since the elevated portion of
the system will be lagging behind. General gusts Saturday could
reach as high as 35-40 mph and around 25 mph on Sunday. There are
still some differences on when the associated cold front would
exit, but likely sometime late Saturday into the overnight hours,
behind which cooler and below normal temperatures will return at
least for the first couple of days of the new week. Lows Monday
morning could be approaching near freezing to mid-30s. Surface
high pressure behind the front looks to track over the Ohio
Valley, allowing for dry weather for the start of the new week as
well.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 25 to 30kt likely through the period
- Scattered convection at times, especially during the
  afternoon and evening hours

Discussion:

Scattered to broken low VFR cumulus will be around to start the
period, but bases will rise during the afternoon. Scattered low
level clouds will continue through the period, with some possibility
of broken low VFR conditions returning Wednesday morning.

Multiple boundaries through the period lead to a very uncertain
convection forecast. Will put some PROB30s for a couple of periods
where odds are higher. On Wednesday, the northern sites will have
the most likely odds of convection. MVFR and worse conditions are
possible in convection.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...KF/Updike