177
FXUS63 KIND 161902
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions expected again today, isolated showers
  and storms possible through this evening

- Peak heat indices around 100 degrees each afternoon through
  Saturday

- Greater chance for showers and storms Friday through the first
  half of the weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday PM,
  Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This afternoon through tonight...

Upper ridging and weak surface high pressure will continue to
promote mostly quiet weather for much of the area. The stagnant
suppressed airmass has kept hot-humid conditions in place with a
Heat Advisory still in effect for north/northeast portions of
central Indiana, including the Indianapolis metro, through 8PM EDT
today.

Isolated to scattered diurnal convection has developed across far
southwestern counties where deeper moisture is located. Latest
observations depict dewpoints well in the 70s in those areas.
Slightly lower dewpoints further northeast along with weaker
forcing has limited convective development, but isolated showers
or a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Convection will
likely dissipate shortly after sunset. Patchy Canadian wildfire
smoke may slowly move into far north/northeast portions of the
area as light winds turn more northerly into the evening.

Friday through Saturday night...

A more active pattern is expected with multiple disturbances moving
through the region. The first disturbance will move in on Friday
supporting higher rain chances. Modest ascent from the mid-upper
level feature combined with daytime heating of a hot-humid airmass
will promote numerous showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is
not expected, but efficient rainfall rates from warm rain processes
could result in localized flooding, especially if any training
occurs. Additional scattered convection can be expected late
Saturday as another shortwave and associated cold front push
through.

Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the approaching cold
front late Saturday along with modest enhancement of mid-upper level
flow could promote isolated severe thunderstorms, primarily across
northern portions of central Indiana. Forecast soundings depict
around 20-30 kt of effective shear, strong destabilization with
steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values as high as 1000 to
1400 J/KG which support the threat. The primary convective hazard is
damaging wind gusts. Isolated large hail cannot be ruled out either,
but the threat will quickly lessen as upscale growth occurs. The
main timing appears to be from the mid afternoon through the early
overnight hours.

Sunday into next week...

Long range guidance generally depicts upper ridging and weak surface
high pressure building in Sunday behind the departing cold front.
This will provide quiet weather with cooler-drier conditions.
Guidance then suggest another shortwave approaches late Monday into
Tuesday morning. Exact details remain uncertain with this
disturbance due to diverging model solutions. It is worth noting
guidance suggest more significant cold air advection with this
disturbance which favors even cooler and drier conditions towards
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers and storms possible through this evening, mainly
  near BMG

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through much of the period
with light winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing
this afternoon across southwest portions of central Indiana.
Convection could impact BMG so a PROB30 was added from 20Z to 01Z
later today. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out further
north, but confidence is far too low for a TAF inclusion.

More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon.
Winds may be light and variable at times through tonight before
turning south or southwesterly Friday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-029>031-
036>042-045>049.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo