095
FXUS63 KIND 040535
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7AM to 7PM today
  across far SE counties, greatest chance for impacts during the
  afternoon.

- Chances for above freezing highs late this week and again mid-
  next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Satellite trends show mid level clouds are having a difficult time
eroding in southern parts of central Indiana owing to weakening
flow and an upstream vort max moving towards the region. Low
cloud deck continues to move south 15-20 kts across northern zones
and will fill in the remainder of the clear skies in central
zones by 05Z. Have gone more pessimistic with the cloud cover
overnight as a result. The caveat is in the far NW/NC counties
where a clearing/subsidence zone over southern lower MI should
move SE and clip this region late tonight (after 09Z). In this
region, have bumped down the overnight low temps and wind chills
by a few degrees. For the rest of the forecast area, have
maintained roughly a blended guidance for lows. Rest of the
forecast is on track with no pops and winds generally 5-10 kts
from the N-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Weak surface cyclogenesis has led to deepening low pressure over
the southern Ohio Valley throughout today, of which is creating a
narrow corridor of frontogenesis within southern Indiana. In
return, banded snowfall has formed over this region, with moderate
snow rates being observed. Further analysis on the specifics of
this banded snowfall is in the mesoscale section at the top of the
AFD.

These snowbands are expected to continue throughout the afternoon
and evening, but will likely be south of the central Indiana CWA
within the next 3 hours. Still, a quick 1-2 inches is possible in
places like Seymour and North Vernon before the snow ends. The
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7PM, but this will
likely be ended early once the snow exit to the SE.

Overnight, cold air advection will push in cooler temperatures but a
consistent broken to overcast stratus deck will likely limit diurnal
cooling some with lows in the teens to near 10 degrees tomorrow
morning. Tomorrow will have relatively quiet but cold weather as the
bulk of the cooler airmass arrives beneath mid-level pressure gains.
This should result in some clearing, but there will likely still be
some mid to upper level cloud cover within a strong jet stream.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

An upper trough will be making its way eastward for the end of the
week before more zonal upper flow moves over central Indiana. This
weekend into next week may see some ridging at times but models lack
clear agreement past this weekend. Generally temperatures will trend
warmer than we have seen in several weeks. Highs on Friday are
expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s but a quick moving system
will drop highs back to the 20s on Saturday before another warming
trend returns from Sunday and on.

Dry weather is expected for much of the long term period due
partially to limited moisture availability but a few passing waves
would make light precipitation possible at times. The far north
could see some snow showers early Friday with the passage of a
frontal system. The next best chance of precip will come at the end
of the period with the potential for an approaching trough and
surface low.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings potentially for much of the period

- VFR conditions are possible at times as low clouds scatter out,
  particularly after daybreak through the early afternoon

Discussion:

A low stratus deck is overspreading central Indiana behind a weak
frontal boundary moving in from the north. MVFR ceilings are being
reported at all sites except BMG as the stratus deck will not move
in for another hour or two. MVFR ceilings are likely to continue
through daybreak before some dry air helps to scatter out the clouds
for a time.

A period of VFR conditions with SCT025 is possible, but uncertainty
remains on how long it lasts before low clouds increase in coverage
again. The best chance for clearing appears to be mid-morning to
early afternoon. A few flurries may develop in the afternoon with
some minor instability and an approaching weak upper level storm
system. Winds will be N-NE 5-10 kts much of the period. Winds then
become light and variable towards the end of the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Melo