762
FXUS63 KIND 101403
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1003 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued threats for thunderstorms with heavy rain and possibly
  localized flooding through Saturday; an isolated strong storm
  with damaging winds cannot be ruled out

- Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity
  than experienced the first week of the month

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Fog has mixed out across most of the area, but a large area of
stratus remains south of I-70. This will gradually lift and mix out
into this afternoon, providing partly cloudy skies. Elsewhere,
cumulus will pop up along with cirrus moving in, also providing
partly cloudy skies.

Isolated convection had briefly popped this morning along the
boundary in the far northern forecast area, but it has since
dissipated. Still expect additional convection to develop along this
boundary this afternoon, so kept chance PoPs north. To the south,
more isolated convection should pop up during the afternoon as
instability builds.

Still watching how an MCV evolves to the west this afternoon for
impacts tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

TODAY INTO SUNDAY -

Some patchy fog and low clouds will be possible near daybreak into
the morning hours today, with a relative lull in convective activity
early today.

An upper level wave will move slowly through the region late today
into Sunday, though models differ in their handling and intensity of
the disturbance. A continued moist airmass will promote at least
modest destabilization, and one or more clusters of storms will be
possible, primarily later today into tonight though the threat will
lessen and shift southward with time, and be focused primarily along
remnant boundaries from previous convection, limiting the
predictability. The bulk of convective activity should be south of
the area by Saturday night.

An isolated strong to severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out,
though hydro concerns will likely be slightly more pressing as the
area has been decently wet in recent weeks, and the aforementioned
plentiful moisture combined with what may be fairly slow storm
motions outside of more organized clusters could present a localized
flash flood threat - WPC excessive rainfall outlooks outline this
well. Deep layer shear is relatively weak for the most part as well,
though if any cold pools can become established, this may not be as
important with decent instability to work with.

00Z HRRR solution does show a line segment clipping far southwestern
portions of central Indiana this evening with a localized damaging
wind threat, and this will require monitoring, but again the
localized hydro concerns are more pressing given continued
precipitable water values near or above 90th percentile through much
of the weekend.

NEXT WEEK -

The predominant story next week will be a reassertion of summertime
heat as a brief pseudo-Rex block pattern forms with the western
CONUS ridge sliding back eastward atop weak upper level low pressure
to our south, gradually reconnecting with the Bermuda high over the
southeast. Temperatures will climb back towards the 90 degree mark
in spots, though with slightly more reasonable dewpoints than the
first week of the month, keeping max apparent temperatures still
toasty but far more manageable in the low to mid 90s.

The high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep the area dry
for the most part, though airmass thunderstorms cannot be entirely
ruled out near peak heating many days. That said, these are quite
low predictability days ahead of time and will not merit at most
slight chance afternoon PoPs later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Impacts:

- Low ceilings and patchy fog possible late tonight into Friday
  morning

- Chance for additional thunderstorms this afternoon

Discussion:

Guidance suggests the plentiful low level moisture will produce
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities at several sites late
tonight with some IFR ceilings possible for a few hours around
daybreak. These restrictions will likely persist to around midday or
early afternoon before widespread VFR returns.

Additional thunderstorm activity will be possible during the
afternoon hours at most sites, and will carry a PROB30 group at all
but LAF for this potential. This activity should wane in the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

Winds will generally be southwesterly much of the period below 10KT
but may become light and variable late in the period/Friday night.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Nield