409
FXUS63 KIND 020209
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
909 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cold and dry over the next couple days

- Temperatures warming next week to well above normal

- Rain chances return mid to late week with the potential for a more
  potent storm system Thursday into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Surface analysis late this evening shows a large area of cold high
pressure stretching from the northern plains Illinois, Indiana and
the Ohio Valley. Low pressure was found over the TX panhandle. Skies
were mainly clear across Indiana, however a thin, small pesky deck
of stratocu was lingering over Indianapolis and I-74, SE of Indy.
Aloft, continued quick NW flow was in place due to strong ridging
over the western CONUS and a deep low over Quebec. This has been a
persistent pattern over several days. Temperatures across Central
Indiana were mainly in the 20s with dew points in the teens.

No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Models suggest the large
surface high to the northwest will continue to build across Indiana
overnight and into Friday. Forecast soundings show a mainly dry
column with subsidence. Thus mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
will be expected as the lingering stratocu deck should eventually
exit. Weak warm air advection is in place overnight as the cold core
of the recent air mass begins to retreat northeast. Given this, lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s will be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight.

Dry and quiet weather is expected for the short term period with the
main focus being mid and high level clouds moving southeast across
the northern counties and the very low-end potential for flurries
this evening into tonight. Synoptically, strong northwesterly flow
aloft persists across the Great Lakes region in the aftermath of the
exiting low pressure system. Radar imagery continues to show light
returns across northern Indiana, but surface observations indicate
none of this is making it to the ground due to dry air between the
surface and the cloud layer at around 10kft. There are some signs in
saturation going into the evening hours, but think that any flurries
should stay to the north of the forecast area.

Elsewhere, the last of the low clouds are exiting the southern
counties with sparse mid and high level clouds left in the
aftermath. Temperatures remain cooler than normal with the strong
CAA aloft and weak flow near the surface. With the mostly clear
skies and light winds tonight, efficient diurnal cooling should
allow for temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s.

Friday.

The stronger flow aloft will gradually begin to weaken going into
the daytime hours tomorrow with weak northwesterly surface flow
expected through the day. This will help to keep temperatures on the
cool-end again with highs in the 30s. A weak wave across the
Tennessee Valley may help to bring some high clouds across southern
Indiana, but otherwise expect similar conditions to today with
fairly sparse and thin high cirrus.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday Night Through Tuesday.

The long term period begins with a transition towards a more
progressive and eventually zonal upper level flow regime. A weak
shortwave embedded within the broader northwesterly flow will clip
the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. Model soundings
show a lack of notable moisture across central Indiana with the best
forcing well to the north of central Indiana which keeps confidence
high that any snow will remain well north of central Indiana. Sky
cover will remain dominated by mid and high level clouds which will
help to keep temperatures at or below normal for Saturday with the
pattern beginning to shift into early next week as a ridge builds
across the central US.

As the upper level ridge builds, surface flow will become southerly
and help to bring warmer temperatures back to central Indiana with
good model agreement for highs to climb into the upper 40s to 50s
Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as another weak low pressure system moves across the Great
Lakes region with a weak surface front stretching south into central
Indiana. The low will gradually strengthen through the night into
Wednesday but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty if the
forcing along the front will be strong enough to produce
precipitation before the front exits. Will keep low POPs in the
forecast, but think the better threat for precipitation will be
across northern Indiana and into Ohio.

A much more potent system then will impact the Ohio Valley Thursday
into Friday as a low pressure pressure system ejects out of the
Rockies and moves towards the Midwest. While there is still
considerable spread in the timing and track of the associated
surface low, the general consensus has fairly widespread
precipitation for central Indiana with the precipitation type being
dependent on the final track. Given the antecedent warmth,
confidence is much higher in rain being the predominant
precipitation type although some ensembles bring the low further
southeast and puts the far northwestern counties within the zone of
possible snow. Another potent system then looks likely towards the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 527 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

Indiana will remain under the influence of a strong area of high
pressure stretching from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley
during this TAF period. This high pressure system will build
southeast toward Indiana tonight and Friday, keeping cold and dry
air in place across the TAF sites along with VFR conditions.

A small caveat is that a band of VFR SC was seen on GOES10 over
southern IL stretching east to HUF and BMG. Progression on this is a
bit uncertain at the moment, but an eventual dissipation is
expected. Used a tempo group for now to account for this.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma