455
FXUS63 KIND 241834
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
234 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers late this afternoon, a few
  thunderstorms possible.

- Dry weather tonight through much of Tuesday.

- Chances for showers and storms much of the week ahead. Best
  chances for dry weather on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure
over MO and western IL, building eastward. Aloft, an upper trough
axis was found over WI and IL, pushing east toward Indiana. Radar
shows two areas of rain showers along and ahead of this trough. The
first was pushing across SE Central Indiana. The second area was
found entering western Indiana and was linear in fashion, with
daytime heating leading to some convection near this boundary.

Late this afternoon and tonight...

Models suggest the upper trough axis will continue to quickly move
across Indiana, exiting the state near 00Z. The ongoing rain ahead
of this trough will push across most areas, resulting in at least a
brief period of showers or a TSRA through 00Z. Dry weather will
arrive after 00Z in the wake of the upper trough as forcing is lost.
Models show the upper flow has weak ridging available and strong
subsidence arrives promptly after 00Z. Strong drying is seen within
the forecast soundings. Thus a trend toward mostly clear skies is
expected. With little change in the overall air mass, lows will be
mainly in the mid 50s.

Monday and Monday Night...

Dry and warmer weather is expected for Memorial Day and Monday night.
Models show the strong area of high pressure in place over the
plains will be moving across our state though Monday, arriving over
NY and PA by Monday night. Forecast soundings and time heights show
a dry column with ongoing subsidence as a strong ridge axis builds
within the upper levels. Convective temperatures appear unreachable
as a mid level inversion will be present. Thus a mostly sunny sky
and mostly clear night will be expected. A day of full sun should
allow us to reach highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

The upper pattern suggests upper ridging in place over the upper
midwest, with a NW tilt to western Canada. A weak upper trough over
OK and AR will provide southerly gulf flow across Indiana. Models
suggest some forcing dynamics within that flow will pass across
Indiana on late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Thus chances for showers
and storms will continue to be needed on those days.

Thursday and Friday...

Dry weather will be expected for now on Thursday and Friday. Strong
high pressure will be over the Great Lakes along with strong ridging
aloft on those days. This will lead to subsidence and dry weather
along with above normal temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday...

Smaller rain chances will return next weekend. The upper ridging is
expected to drift to the east while a warm front and and upper
trough approaches the area on Saturday. This will bring rain chances
to the area for the weekend. Although there is no signal for high
confidence pops, enough ingredients remain where precipitation
cannot be ruled out yet.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected
- Brief MVFR conditions possible in any SHRA/TSRA through 2000Z

Discussion:

Moisture surging northward from southern Indiana along with
additional storms northwest of the TAF sites will push across the
Taf sites through afternoon. HRRR suggests continued devlopment and
progression across the TAF sites through 20Z. Thus have focused a
windows of showers and possible thunderstorms during this period.

High pressure over the plains is then expected to build across
Indiana and the Taf sites for Monday. This will lead to a return to
VFR conditions tonight in the wake of the storms. Forecast soundings
through the night and into Monday show a dry column with the arrival
of the high.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma