276
FXUS63 KIND 310301
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect tonight into Saturday morning

- Very cold temperatures expected through Sunday

- Scattered flurries and snow showers tonight into Saturday

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid
  week next week at the earliest

- Best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday next
  week with a potentially impactful winter system

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A small persistent area of flurries/very light snow showers
continues to move south across the forecast area, and is currently
in the Indy metro area. Expect this to continue south but gradually
weaken as it does so. Have adjusted the flurry mention to account
for this area as it moves south.

Lake effect/enhanced snow showers currently remain west of central
Indiana, so shrunk the size of the flurry mention west this evening.
The lake band will continue to drift slowly east, and have only made
tweaks to ongoing forecast of PoPs overnight as they look to remain
representative of current thinking. In central Indiana, only a
dusting at most is expected.

Temperatures vary across the area depending on cloud cover. The
initial band of stratocumulus will drift south, then lake enhanced
clouds will overspread the area from the north. Readings have shown
quick falls when clouds diminish, so feel that forecast lows look
reasonable. Only made some minor tweaks. Given this, the Cold
Advisory will remain as is. Wouldn`t be surprised if isolated areas
west of the Advisory briefly reach criteria, but don`t believe
enough will to justify expanding the Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a potent west-east oriented trough dropping
south out of the Great Lakes. Flow through the atmosphere generally
has a northerly component, even ahead of the advancing trough. As
such, a well-defined cold front is not currently seen dropping
south. Instead, slightly colder air aloft will gradually seep
southward tonight into Saturday.

Cloud cover associated with this feature is beginning to enter
northern portions of central Indiana. An area of stratus is
primarily located from South Bend, to Fort Wayne, southward to about
Indianapolis. Guidance shows this particular cloud deck dropping
southward tonight while gradually thinning out. Further north, a
more substantial cloud deck exists over Michigan. Additionally,
abundant cloud cover extends downstream into Illinois from Lake
Michigan.

Going forward, cloud cover will have a substantial impact on low
temperatures tonight. As of right now, it looks like a period of
clearing is likely across eastern portions of our area. Therefore,
assuming clearing holds and radiative cooling potential is
maximized, we`ve lowered forecast lows below guidance tonight. Lows
between 0 and -10 are expected. We`ve also issued a Cold Weather
Advisory for these areas, in effect from 06z to 14z. Further
northwest, a few instances of -10 to -15 degree wind chills are
likely but substantial cloud cover will limit the duration and
extent of such occurrences.

In addition to cloud cover, modest forcing associated with the upper
trough drops south tonight. Moisture from a long N-S fetch over Lake
Michigan will increase the odds of scattered snow showers tonight
over north and western portions of central Indiana. Snow showers
remain isolated for most of the night but a more concentrated area
of snow is possible from about 09z to 15z. Amounts look to be light,
generally from a dusting to half of an inch at most.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 303 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Little change in the long range pattern is expected. Global
teleconnections continue to favor west coast ridging and east coast
troughing (positive Pacific North American pattern and negative
Arctic Oscillation). Ensemble guidance does show the PNA becoming
more neutral to possibly negative by the middle of February.
GEFS/EPS likewise continue to show a continuation of the current
pattern through the first week of February.

Scaling down a bit, northwesterly flow aloft looks to prevail most
of next week. A few weak storm systems may be embedded within this
flow, bringing periodic cloudiness and chances of light snow. The
first of these is a weak clipper system passing to our north on
Monday.

Next is a weak system passing to our southwest on Tuesday/Wednesday.
This one, should it trend stronger with a greater gulf moisture
connection, has potential for accumulating snowfall. Additionally,
this system may pull the baroclinic zone far enough north to
introduce possibility of mixed/rain chances. Right now, guidance is
in poor agreement regarding the position and strength of this system.

Beyond that, generally more of the same is expected. Namely, colder
than normal temperatures, northwesterly flow aloft, and occasional
weak clipper systems diving southeastward out of Canada.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings Saturday
- Scattered snow showers especially 07-16Z.

Discussion:

First area of lower VFR clouds will continue across the sites
through the evening. There may be a break for KIND/KBMG around 05Z,
but confidence in timing and location isn`t high enough to include
this break.

More clouds will arrive during the overnight, with ceilings lowering
to MVFR after 12Z Saturday. These ceilings will likely linger
throughout the day, with perhaps larger breaks in the deck toward
00Z Sunday.

Flurries and scattered snow showers will be around, especially in
the 06Z-15Z time frame. Brief MVFR visibility is possible in the
snow showers.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for INZ037-039>042-
045>049-053>057-061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50