543
FXUS63 KIND 201856
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River and stream flooding continues across southern portions of
  Central Indiana.

- Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before
  showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the
  holiday weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Large-scale troughing over the front range of the Rockies has placed
Indiana within broad southwesterly flow aloft. Subtle mid-level
disturbances have been embedded within this flow. Additionally, a
slow-moving cold front has been crossing Indiana from north to south
over the past day. All these factors combined has lead to prolonged
rainfall for much of the area.

Rainfall continues for most as of this writing, with some heavier
pockets noted south of the Indy metro. Rainfall totals overnight
were impressive in some areas, especially further south and west.
For instance, a pocket of 3-5 inches was observed in the Knox,
Daviess, Martin, and Greene County area. This has lead to flooding
along main stem rivers and smaller creeks and streams. Additionally,
minor overland flooding has been observed at times.

Most high-resolution guidance shows showers lingering at least
through the afternoon, potentially to as late as 8pm. After that,
the front exits to our southeast with surface high pressure building
in to our north. A chilly northeasterly breeze develops and a period
of below-average temperatures is anticipated to end the week.

Troughing persists to our west, however, so the overall weather
pattern is not expected to change much. Southwesterly flow quickly
reestablishes itself by Friday, with another embedded mid-level
disturbances lifting northward out of the lower Mississippi Valley.
A round of rain is likely across Indiana late Friday morning into
the afternoon.

The upper-level pattern continues into next week, with multiple mid-
level disturbances bringing on and off again rain chances Saturday,
Sunday, Monday and onward. These disturbances are hard to time,
since they depend on convective processes upstream that cannot be
resolved by medium-range guidance. As such, we will keep continuous
PoPs in the forecast for all of next week...capping them at chance
since the signal is modest at best.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings with rain at times, ending late this afternoon. IFR
  conditions at times at BMG

- MVFR ceilings continue overnight

Discussion:

A cold front has passed through central Indiana with all terminals
observing north-northeasterly winds. Winds become more northeasterly
with time as surface high pressure builds in to our north on
Thursday.

Rain continues from HUF to IND southward, with heavy rain in the
vicinity of BMG as of this writing. Rain is anticipated to diminish
in intensity but continue to some extent through the afternoon.

MVFR ceilings persist at all terminals except LAF. A few breaks in
the low-level clouds have occurred at HUF and IND with ceilings
briefly at 3500 feet. Overall, MVFR ceilings will be more common
through tonight. IFR conditions have occurred at BMG with the
heavier rain, these will become MVFR as rainfall intensity decreases.

VFR conditions are expected to return on Thursday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff