545
FXUS63 KIND 061742
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler weather through Tuesday

- Freeze Warning in effect for northern half of central Indiana
  late tonight into Tuesday morning, including the Indianapolis
  metro

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through next weekend

- Isolated to scattered rain chances return Thursday onward, which
  may bring receding rivers back into flood in some areas

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Current surface analysis and satellite imagery depicts quiet
weather across central Indiana as surface ridging extends
northeastward from high pressure centered near the southern Plains.
A weak surface low is located over the Great Lakes Region, but no
precipitation is expected over the area from this feature.

The low pressure system is pushing a weak cold front through at this
time. However, temperatures are still warming due to deepening
mixing and sunny skies. Look for highs mostly in the 50s with far
southern counties expected to the low 60s. The deep mixing will
support gusty winds between 20-30 mph today.

The Freeze Watch for the northern half of central Indiana has been
upgraded to a Freeze Warning from 2 to 10AM Tuesday with near or
below freezing temperatures expected. The Freeze Warning includes
the Indianapolis metro, but urban heat island effects could keep
many nearby surrounding areas slightly above freezing. Elevated
winds overnight should prevent frost development. Make sure to
cover any sensitive outdoor plants.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The week will start off cooler than usual with the threat of frost
and below freezing mornings as high pressure moves through the area.
Behind the front, temperatures swing back to above normal for
midweek. The passing surface high will also bring quieter weather to
central Indiana throughout the short term.

Temperatures this morning have already dropped into the 30s for much
of central Indiana, with the best threat of frost potential across
our SE where the ongoing advisory is. Southwest winds and dew
points in the mid 30s will help keep temps dropping below freezing
this morning.

The large high pressure system stretches from Canada into the
central Plains and south. A weak but fast moving cold front will
swing through the area today, shifting winds out of the NW. Aloft
will reside strong winds which will mix down to the surface
throughout the day. Expect sustained winds of around 15 mph and
gusts up to around 30 mph, mainly during the afternoon hours. Behind
the front, the Canadian center of the high will move into the Great
Lakes region, pulling in the cooler and drier air.

Highs today will reach into the 50s to near 60. Mainly clear skies
are expected tonight, although some cloud coverage looks to move in
nearer to daybreak. Lows tonight will be the coldest of the next
week, with lows in the mid 30s in the south but down to the upper
20s in the north. There remains some question as to how cold and the
southern extent of the freezing line, but the northern portion of
the forecast area will very likely freeze for several hours Tuesday
morning. The cold will linger into Tuesday with highs only in the
40s to low 50s.

As the high pressure system pushes eastward, central Indiana will be
on the backside and return surface flow from the south. Associated
WAA will quickly warm temperatures back above normal with highs in
the 60s to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching low
from the east will further endorse the S to SW flow for Thursday.
The cold front off of that low could bring rain chances for our NW
counties as early as late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Expectation for late this week into the weekend remains a return to
above normal temperatures and a potential return to active weather.

The strong Canadian high will be off the east coast by 00Z Friday,
with a northern stream low near James Bay and moving rapidly
eastward. An elongated cold front stretching from this low back to
the central high Plains will stall somewhere near the region late
week and may produce multiple opportunities for convection, though
model disagreement precludes more than chance PoPs. Potential will
exist for multiple rounds of precipitation, which could prolong or
exacerbate ongoing flooding on main stem rivers given antecedent
conditions as a result of the wet weather in recent weeks.
Hydrologic ensembles do show renewed river rises next weekend in
response to this potential rainfall, though a mostly dry week will
help to hopefully blunt these impacts a bit.

There is little to indicate significant severe threats during the
latter portion of the forecast, and this is backed up by
experimental machine learning guidance. That said, week two outlooks
continue to indicate enhanced likelihood of warmer than normal and
above normal precipitation conditions, thus we may well be back in
an active pattern for mid to late April.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts 20-27KT from 300-310 degrees through 00Z this evening

Discussion:

Deep PBL mixing and a passing front earlier in the day will continue
promoting strong winds with sustained winds peaking at 15-19KT and
gusts as high as 20-27KT through the afternoon. Winds and gusts will
subside after sunset, but remain slightly elevated across northern
portions of the area.

A few fair weather cu and thin high clouds will be possible at the
sites today, though skies should remain mostly clear. A slow
increase in clouds can be expected by late tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-054>057-065.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Melo