477
FXUS63 KIND 111821
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
221 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds diminishing through this evening with patchy fog late
  tonight in eastern parts of central Indiana

- Near record highs Monday and Tuesday

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms for midweek

- Coolest air of the season so far next weekend with growing
  confidence in a widespread frost Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will move away to the east with
upper level ridging set to build in immediately for the early part
of the week. This will set the stage for near record breaking warmth
Monday and Tuesday. A frontal boundary will move into the area for
midweek with periodic rain and storms Tuesday night through
Thursday. The coolest air of the season so far will follow for next
weekend.

Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday

The back edge of the stratus deck continues to make slow but steady
eastward progress across central Indiana early this afternoon. Skies
were mostly sunny in the Wabash Valley with thicker clouds largely
confined to areas east of Interstate 69. Temperatures varied widely
as a result of the clouds...ranging from the lower 60 in eastern
counties to the mid 70s in the lower Wabash Valley.

The departure of the stratus associated with what is left of Isaias
will be followed by high pressure and mainly clear skies tonight.
With winds becoming near calm...potential exists for patchy fog
formation in the predawn hours through daybreak Monday focused
primarily over the eastern half of the forecast area. The fog will
burn off quickly Monday morning as boundary layer mixing commences.

The arrival and expansion of a broad upper level ridge into the Ohio
Valley on Monday will signal an abrupt transition...and the first of
several upcoming over the next seven days...as stronger southwest
flow develops between a frontal boundary over the upper Midwest and
the aforementioned high pressure as it settles along the Gulf coast.
Strong warm advection will commence and result in well above normal
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday across the region. Highs may
flirt with 90 degrees in the Wabash Valley both days. For KIND...
record highs of 86 for both Monday and Tuesday will be threatened.
The frontal boundary over the Great Lakes will drift south towards
the area late Tuesday but any convection is expected to remain
to the north through Tuesday evening.

Tuesday Night Through Sunday

An increasingly amplified flow aloft driven first by an upper low
over the Rockies and then more significantly by a deepening northern
stream trough will flatten the ridge over the Gulf coast while
initiating a substantial pattern change for the region late week
into next weekend. The aforementioned boundary will remain in a
quasi-stationary state over the Ohio Valley midweek before lifting
back north Thursday in response to a surface low ejecting out of the
Rockies and increased upper jet phasing. Rain with embedded
thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the region as a
result Wednesday and Thursday as multiple surface waves ride along
the boundary. There remains at least some potential for a few
stronger storms...especially ahead of a strong cold front Thursday
afternoon but the potential for an abundance of clouds and rainfall
poses some uncertainty in this prospect. With a deep moisture plume
pooling along the front aided in part from remnant moisture from the
two eastern Pacific hurricanes...there is the possibility for some
locations to see one to two inches by Thursday night.

The cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night and early
Friday. In the wake of the frontal passage...the aforementioned
upper trough will settle and amplify across much of the eastern half
of the country. A much cooler airmass will overspread the region
with strong cold advection in place. Highs primarily in the 60s on
Friday will remain in the 50s Saturday making for the coolest
daytime temperatures experienced in over 5 months. While a lack of
boundary layer decoupling may limit frost accrual to sheltered
locales Friday night...confidence continues to grow in a widespread
frost for much of the area on Saturday night as lows fall into the
30s. Subfreezing temperatures are squarely on the table for some of
our normal cool spots as well Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Impacts:

- Lower stratus diminishing from the west this afternoon
- Patchy fog at KIND early Monday morning

Discussion:

Stratus deck continues to steadily erode from the west early this
afternoon with the expectation that it will be east of all the
terminals within a few hours. Some cu development will develop on
the backside of the stratus deck but the overall trend will be
towards clear skies by late afternoon and early evening. N/NW wind
this afternoon will become light and variable this evening.

Patchy fog is expected to develop across eastern Indiana in the
predawn hours Monday and may spread back towards KIND for a few
hours near daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the forecast period with southwest winds around 10kts
developing Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan