668
FXUS63 KIND 140232
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
932 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory for all but far southwest portions of
  central Indiana through 7AM Sunday for blowing and drifting snow

- Extreme cold warning in effect for northwest half of central
  Indiana from midnight tonight through 11AM Sunday.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect from midnight through 10AM Monday
  for all of central Indiana.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

The last of the snow bands is progressing through the area and
weakening slowly as deeper forcing aloft departs off to the east.
Temperatures continue to tumble with single digits now in the
northern Wabash Valley and 10 to 15 degrees elsewhere.

The focus is shifting quickly to the bitterly cold air that
continues to advect into the Ohio Valley in the wake of the clipper.
The back edge of the clouds is already working into the northern
Wabash Valley as of mid evening and expect a gradual clearing over
the next several hours across most of the forecast area. The only
exception will be across the northeast half of the area as a
pronounced area of stratus spreads S/SE from the Great Lakes and
will drift into northeast counties later tonight.

To this point...winds have not been quite as gusty as expected but
still have a steady 10-15mph wind for much of the region. This will
cause blowing and drifting of snow through the night with travel
likely to remain a challenge. With the widespread moderate to heavy
snow having ended...have cancelled the winter storm warning and
converting those counties back to an advisory. Considering the
impacts of blowing and drifting...have chosen to extend the winter
weather advisory out into Sunday morning.

But as mentioned above...the cold temperatures have become the
primary focus. Lows near or just below zero are likely with wind
chills expected to bottom out between -25 and -15F. The excessive
cold warning remains where the coldest wind chills are expected
across the northwest half of the forecast area with a cold advisory
elsewhere. Stay warm tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Current KIND radar imagery and surface observations depict
widespread moderate snowfall ongoing across much of central Indiana
with a few heavier bands of snow. This is associated with increasing
frontogenetical forcing ahead of an approaching shortwave and
associated cold front. These moderate snowfall rates with
visibilities around 1/2 to 3/4 of a miles are expected to continue
through the early evening hours. Heavy snowfall rates and
visibilities around 1/4 of a mile will be possible at times within
any heavier more organized bands. Temperatures have also steadily
dropped today due to cold air advection which is promoting higher
snow to liquid ratios. Look for travel to become increasingly
difficult as road conditions continue deteriorating.

Expect snow to begin tapering off from northwest to southeast during
the evening once drier air filters in behind the departing system.
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are then expected tonight
through Monday morning with arctic air ushering into the region.
Near zero or single digit sub-zero temperatures and wind gusts
around 15-25 mph at times may lead to wind chills as low as -15 to
-25F. An Extreme Cold warning is in effect from midnight tonight
through 11AM Sunday. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of
central Indiana from midnight tonight through Monday morning despite
slight recovery on Sunday. Another concern tonight is the potential
for blowing and drifting snow from the aforementioned wind gusts,
especially given high SLRs producing very light fluffy snow.

An arctic high will build in on Sunday providing mostly quiet
weather and clearing skies. Bitterly cold temperatures are still
expected with the potential for blowing snow mainly in the morning.
Winds should relax later in the day once the surface high moves
overhead. Efficient radiational cooling conditions thanks to the
surface high combined with a healthy snowpack will likely support
temperatures quickly dropping overnight. Look for near zero or
single digit sub-zero lows. Winds chills could be as low as -10 to
-18F, mainly over the northwest half of central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 304 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Monday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected to begin the work week with
surface ridging in place. Increasing warm air advection aloft and
southwesterly flow at the surface will allow for temperatures to
begin moderating. Partly cloudy skies should also aid in the
warming trend with temperatures likely reaching the 20s across
central Indiana.

Tuesday through Friday...

Moderate southerly breezes, courtesy of much-weaker surface high
pressure lingering over the southeastern US...will maintain steady
moderation through the mid-week. Afternoon highs climbing from the
30s Tuesday, to 40s Wednesday...will continue to moderate to around
50F for Thursday, with perhaps robust southerly gusts overcoming any
cooling effects of scattered/numerous rain showers around the
Wednesday Night-Thursday timeframe ahead of the next potent system`s
cold front.  Overall zonal upper level pattern into the late week
should prevent another arctic invasion, despite strong storm system
crossing Ontario.  Seasonably cool conditions expected as the long
term period ends.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 538 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Impacts:

- Snow ending this evening but blowing snow will continue tonight
- VFR conditions return for tonight into Sunday
- Northwest wind gusts peaking at around 20kts tonight

Discussion:

The back edge of the widespread snow is moving into the northern
Wabash Valley early this evening and should sweep quickly across the
terminals between 23Z and 01Z. KBMG and KIND may still have snow
falling at the beginning of forecast but that will end quickly. With
the onset of gusty northwest winds...blowing snow will be possible
through the night at all but KBMG. MVFR stratus will linger
throughout the evening but clouds will diminish overnight as the
high pressure builds in.

The development of lower ceilings off of the Great Lakes may spread
back into the northeast half of central Indiana towards daybreak
Sunday and could briefly impact all but KHUF. Increasing subsidence
through the day Sunday though will lead to the development of mostly
sunny skies. Northwest winds around 10kts will continue.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-070>072.

Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Sunday for INZ021-028>031-
035>040-043>047-051-052.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
INZ021-028>031-035>040-043>047-051-052.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for INZ041-042-048-
049-053>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan