503
FXUS63 KIND 251137
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
637 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning today through Monday morning

- Total snow amounts between 8 to 12 inches possible near the I-70
  corridor and south. Slightly lower amounts expected north.

- Cold Weather Advisory Sunday night through midday Tuesday,
  Extreme Cold Warning along and west of I-69 Sunday night through
  Monday morning, additional dangerous cold through much of the
  upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 326 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Latest observations show snowfall rates have picked up gradually
across central Indiana over the past few hours as stronger
frontogenetical forcing is moving in. Lower visibilities around 1/2
to 1 mile across far south-central IN support increasing rates. The
most widespread lower visibilities has generally been near the I-70
corridor south with even a few sites briefly reporting less than 1/4
of a mile visibility across the far south. Reported snowfall amounts
have generally ranged from 2 to 3.5 inches at this time.

The antecedent dry airmass from a strong Arctic high centered near
Wisconsin is no longer a limiting factor for NW portions of central
IN as the atmospheric column has saturated. Deeper moisture
continues to surge northward this morning with strengthening
frontogenetical forcing towards daybreak today. Look for this to
continue promoting increasing snowfall rates, particularly for
locations near or south of the I-70 corridor. The Winter Storm
Warning is in effect through 7AM ET Monday morning.

Current KIND radar imagery depicts widespread snow ongoing with the
heaviest snow across far south-central IN where the strongest
frontogenetical forcing is located. Expect this heavier snow to
continue gradually expanding northward through daybreak. While rates
should increase, SLRs are expected to slowly decrease with time,
mainly over south-central IN as thermal profiles warm due to warm
air advection aloft. The increased frontogenetical lift and a deep
isothermal layer remaining below the DGZ should also lower SLRs.
This could limit the potential for heavy snowfall rates over an inch
per hour over next few hours until more impressive frontogenetical
forcing moves in towards daybreak.

Overall forcing from the system shifts east this evening allowing
snow to taper off from west to east. Lingering flurries are possible
overnight though no additional accumulation is expected.

Total Snowfall Amounts.

Latest trends in CAMs has shifted the heavier axis of snowfall
slightly further north due to the surface low near the Tennessee
Valley likely tracking a little further north. Locations near the I-
70 corridor and south are still expected to see the highest amounts
with between 8 to 12 inches possible. Snowfall rates have been
relatively modest, but intensifying rates and the long duration of
snow through today should allow for these high amounts. Locally
higher amounts are possible, especially where banding develops.
Locations further north are likely going to see higher snowfall
amounts generally around 6-10 inches. The higher end amounts are
less likely towards a Covington to Delphi line where amounts may end
up slightly lower around 5-9 inches. Another concern today,
especially going into the afternoon hours, will be northerly gusts
of 20-25 mph which may cause drifting with the very powdery snow.

Temperatures.

Bitterly cold temperatures will define the thermodynamic environment
of this storm. Highs today will struggle to reach the mid-teens,
with overnight lows plummeting to near or below Zero behind the
departing system. Dangerous wind chill values are expected tonight
into Monday morning with minimum wind chills values around 20 to 25F
below zero for at least west/northwest portions of central Indiana.
An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to 11AM
Monday for the west/northwest half of central IN. Because surface
temperatures are so far below freezing, chemical treatments like
salt will have severely limited effectiveness.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 326 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Dangerous cold is the main story of the long term period as
temperatures remain well below freezing and wind chills are expected
to be below zero often. A few nights could even see the actual lows,
not just the wind chill, down to -5 to -10 in spots, especially
given the snow pack that will be in place. We have issued a Cold
Weather Advisory through midday Tuesday, which could be quite
impactful with wind chill values as low as 15-20 below at times.
Additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed as the week
goes on, so will continue to monitor those temps and wind chills.
Although the temperatures won`t warm much through the week, wind
speeds should subside by the latter half of the week.

Much of the period has minimal PoPs, but can`t rule out periodic
flurries as it doesn`t take much energy for that. The best chance of
additional snow accumulation will come midweek as a weak
perturbation in northwesterly flow moves through.

Beyond the long term, below normal temperatures are expected to
continue but the start of February should see slightly less
miserable temperatures than the upcoming week is bringing.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 637 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Impacts:

- Snow continues through 00z.
- IFR vis probable this morning, LIFR possible at times
- Mainly MVFR ceilings into tonight

Discussion:

Snow will continue through most of the day today. Snow may be heavy
at times, mainly this morning. Predominant IFR visibilities possible
through the morning, with LIFR vis at times. MVFR ceilings expected
to continue into tonight, with gradual clearing on Monday.

Northeast winds will become north this afternoon. Gusts near 20kt
are possible during the afternoon. Surface high pressure arrives on
Monday allowing winds to become westerly and then eventually west-
southwesterly.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Monday
for INZ021-028>031-035>039-043>047-051>054-060-061-067-068.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
INZ021-028>031-035>039-043>047-051>054-060-061-067-068.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Tuesday
for INZ040>042-048-049-055>057-062>065-069>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White/Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff