746
FXUS63 KIND 270353
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1153 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather returns for late week into the weekend.

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Minor adjustments to PoPs to match ongoing radar trends, otherwise
the going forecast is in fine shape.

Broken line of convection continues to push south/southeastward,
producing sporadic areas of wind damage and heavy rainfall, with
slowing of the western extent of the main cluster in the past hour
to 90 minutes producing several inches of rain in south central
portions of the area.

This activity should be out of the area by about midnight, with
focus then shifting toward fog and low cloud potential overnight,
particularly in the areas that received the most rain this evening.
Weak cold advection in the low levels coupled with lagging drier air
and the prior rainfall may produce areas of dense fog and stratus
near daybreak Thursday, though uncertainty in extent and timing
remains fairly high. Will maintain fog mention in the grids and
monitor trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

Weak lift well ahead of the surface cold front produced isolated
showers across the northern forecast area earlier. These have since
exited, but the lift continues to produce some clouds across
the area. Can`t rule out another isolated shower developing through
mid-afternoon with this lift.

A line of showers and storms has developed in central Illinois this
afternoon. This line is ahead of the surface cold front, which is
farther to the northwest in Illinois. Instability continues to
increase ahead of this line, with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. With some
heating and moisture advection to go before the line arrives in
central Indiana, the storms should become more numerous and
intensify.

The line will move through the area from northwest to southeast late
this afternoon through this evening. Decent shear will work with the
aforementioned instability to keep a threat of some severe storms
around. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
However, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially north
where shear is best.

After midnight, only the southeast third or so will still see some
scattered convection around. Instability will have waned by then,
ending the severe threat. By 3 or 4 AM, convection should have
exited the area.

Drier air will lag well behind the front, and winds will diminish
overnight. This will set up the potential for some fog, especially
south where rain will have fallen last.

Lows will generally be in the 60s.

Thursday...

The upper trough will linger across the area on Thursday. Low level
moisture will remain. Any fog will lift early in the day, with a
scattered to broken cumulus field developing. Some CAMs generate
isolated convection Thursday afternoon with some weak forcing from
the upper trough. This certainly cannot be ruled out, but for now
feel odds are below mentioning in the forecast at this time.

Highs will be in the lower and middle 80s.

Friday through Monday...

An upper high will nudge its way into the area during this period.
This will keep the area dry with increasingly warmer temperatures.

Initially dewpoints will be relatively low, but they will increase
Sunday into Monday, making conditions more humid to go along with
the elevated temperatures.

Highs in the lower to middle 80s on Friday will warm to the middle
80s to lower 90s by Sunday. On Monday, highs could reach the upper
80s to middle 90s. Heat indices may be near 100 degrees on Monday.

Tuesday and beyond...

Uncertainty increases in how much influence the upper high will
continue to have across the area. For now, believe it will hang on,
so will go dry the vast majority of the area on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, it may lose enough influence for isolated convection to
develop in the afternoon.

Heat will continue, with highs most likely from near 90 to the
middle 90s. Heat indices near 100 would also then be likely.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Impacts:

- Areas of MVFR fog and/or ceilings possible early this morning;
Otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms have exited south of the TAF sites. The associated
cold front was progressing across our state also, with light
northwesterly winds arriving in its wake.

GOES19 shows clear skies across the TAF sites, but dew point
depressions were already getting quite small. Patchy MVFR fog will
be possible overnight as light winds and clear skies will be
expected. Any morning fog will quickly burn off as heating resumes.

On Thursday, high pressure to the northwest will build across
Central Indiana, allowing for dry weather. Forecast soundings
suggest CU development due to to diurnal heating, and this will
result in some afternoon VFR Cigs.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...50