066
FXUS63 KIND 091430
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
930 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry through midweek with mix of rain and snow chances
  returning late Thursday through the weekend, uncertainty remains

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder
  temperatures expected

- Generally near seasonal temperatures this week, except Tuesday
  when highs are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Only minor updates needed to the forecast this morning, mainly
concerning cloud cover. Stratus associated with broad isentropic
lift persists across the northeastern portion of central Indiana.
The clouds have a uniform and stable appearance, indicated by the
presence of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. The clouds are trapped beneath a
stout warm nose situated at roughly 7000 ft agl. This should keep
the clouds intact through the morning hours as they slowly lift
northeastward.

High cirrus simultaneously builds in from the northwest as a weak
system ejects from the Rockies and interacts with an existing low
over southern Canada. High-level cloud cover could become thick by
the evening before a clearing trend takes over overnight.

In the meantime, areas that are not currently underneath the stratus
layer will see a nice warm up today. Temperatures are expected to
rise into the 30s and even the low 40s across our far southwest.
Temperatures should be moderated by snow cover somewhat, especially
since winds look to be on the light side (under 10kt). Underneath
the stratus, temperatures may remain relatively stable in the 20s
for a good portion of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Early this morning, a persistent band of clouds continued across the
northeast half or so of the forecast area, on the edge of a
baroclinic zone aloft. Warm advection and isentropic lift are
producing the clouds.

The baroclinic zone and the lift will gradually move northeast this
morning, and this will take the clouds with it. Some uncertainty
remains in the speed of this occurrence though. Meanwhile, high
clouds will move into the area from the northwest today.

The result will be skies becoming partly cloudy across the entire
area today. Weak warm advection at the surface will still allow
readings to rebound into the 30s to lower 40s. Blended guidance
looks a bit warm given the snow cover, especially northeast. Will
trim back a bit.

Tonight, warm advection will increase ahead of an approaching cold
front. Dewpoints will rise with the warm advection, and this air
moving across cold ground/snow cover could generate some fog,
especially southwest where the best moisture advection will be.

Some models are aggressive with the fog, but confidence isn`t high as
the southwest generally has the warmest ground. For now will stick
with a patchy fog mention.

The warm advection will keep temperatures warmer than previous
nights, with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday through Wednesday...

An upper wave and cold front are expected to move through early in
the extended. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the cold front
will promote mild temperatures with highs on Tuesday ranging from
the 40s across the northeast to the 50s further southwest.

No precipitation is expected as the front passes through the area.
While modest moisture advection occurs ahead of the front, mid-upper
level forcing from the parent trough should remain well north of
central Indiana. A southern stream wave aiding in moisture transport
should also remain well south with only weak forcing in place across
central Indiana. The forecast remains dry for these reasons.

Look for dry conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface high
pressure builds in behind the departing front. Cold air advection
will also lead to cooler temperatures. More seasonal highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s are expected Wednesday.

Thursday through the weekend...

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the latter half of the
week as there due to diverging model solutions, especially into the
weekend. Guidance depicts a weakening system approaching from the
northwest late Thursday into Friday leading to increasing
precipitation chances. However, limited moisture return and some
models quickly weakening the system leads to lower confidence in the
potential for precipitation. At this time, 20-30% POPs remain in the
forecast and any QPF amounts should be light. Thermal profile
suggest snow as the predominant precipitation type Thursday night
with some rain possibly mixing in Friday.

Guidance suggest another shortwave moves through the region this
weekend keeping chances for precipitation in the forecast, but large
variability leads to low confidence in exact details at this time.
Given the large spread, will stick with blended which keeps POPs
through the weekend. It is worth mentioning some long term guidance
depicts the potential for a strong low pressure system to develop
with heavy rainfall likely somewhere across the central CONUS.
Ensemble solutions keep this threat mostly south of the forecast
area at this time, but will continue to monitor trends closely. Rain
should be the predominant precipitation type as temperatures slightly
warm into the weekend. Some snow could mix in at times though.

The milder temperatures this week along with rain chances late week
will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for
flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the
threat so will continue to monitor the potential weekend storm
system closely.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 559 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Impacts:

- Low level wind shear after 06Z Tuesday

Discussion:

Stubborn clouds around 5000ft will linger early in the period.
Afterward, some mid and high clouds will move through from time to
time.

Winds will be E to SE through much of the period with speeds
generally 10kt or less. Winds will become southerly overnight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50