315
FXUS63 KIND 121729
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1229 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 30-35 mph this afternoon

- Dry with significantly warmer temperatures today through the
  weekend

- Low rain chances late Saturday through Sunday night

- Additional chances for rain Monday into midweek

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Only minor changes to the forecast this morning mainly with winds
and wind gusts. We bumped winds up based on latest observations and
high-resolution guidance. Winds between 15-25 with gusts 30-35 mph
are possible this afternoon.

Additionally, high cirrus continues to pass through the area and
should decrease in coverage as we head into the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 323 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong low pressure over
Ontario. Strong high pressure was found over the high plains states.
This was resulting in a moderate pressure gradient across Central
Indiana producing southwest winds of 10-15 mph. GOES19 shows clear
skies across Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed strong
ridging in place over the west coast, resulting in broad NW flow
aloft stretching from the Rockies to the Appalachians. Some high
clouds were noted streaming through the flow aloft over Dakotas into
IA. Temperatures were in the upper 30s and low 40s, but winds were
resulting in wind chill values in the 20s.

Today and Tonight...

Dry and warmer weather is expected today and tonight. The upper
ridging in place over the west coast is expected sharpen slightly
and slide eastward to the Rockies Today and Tonight. This will keep
lee side NW flow over Indiana along with continued subsidence. As
the ridge pushes east, ridge riding high clouds will be shifted
farther northeast, keeping skies clear across Central Indiana.

Meanwhile at the surface, the strong area of high pressure over the
high plains is expected to push east as its associated ridge axis
reaches the Mississippi valley by 12z Thursday. Forecast soundings
and time heights show a dry column, thus a mostly sunny day today
and a mostly clear night tonight is expected.

Warm air advection remains in place today and with a moderate
pressure gradient in place today winds will gust to around 20 mph.
This should aid advection and mixing on westerly winds. Thus highs
in the mid 50s will be expected. Tonight, low dew points and lighter
winds will allow overnight low temperatures to fall to the low and
middle 30s.

Looking ahead, the dry and warmer trend is expected to continue
through at least Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 323 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing upper-level ridging
building throughout the remainder of the week. Continued warm air
advection will allow the warming trend to bring highs in the low 70s
for Saturday. Some moisture advection in addition may support
isolate showers at times in the far south, but weak forcing should
keep any rainfall amounts very light.

An upper trough system and it`s associated cold front will push
through the region this weekend. Rain chances could arrive Saturday
night and last into Sunday, but the latest models are showing that
the best moisture and forcing will be further NE of the area and
best chances for central Indiana currently look to be across our
east. Higher confidence lies with temperatures cooling back to near
normal Sunday and beyond behind the passage of the front.

Models further vary going into next week as it is unclear how a low
pressure system out of the desert SW will evolve. There is decent
agreement on brief ridging behind this weekend`s system before the
next one arrives, but unsure beyond that. Latest models are showing
very different timing and tracks for the next surface low and even
show it weakening to varying degrees on approach. Will continue to
monitor how elements evolve and keep with the chance PoPs guidance
provided for the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 25-30 kt to 00z

Discussion:

A system passing to our north has brought some high cloud cover and
gusty surface winds. A west-northwesterly wind between 15-20kt
gusting to 25-30kt has been prevalent this morning into the
afternoon. Winds have likely peaked, and are expected to decrease as
we head into the evening.

Cirrus is expected to increase tonight becoming a SCT/BKN layer
through about 12z Thursday morning. VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff