786
FXUS63 KIND 280201
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably high temperatures to continue through Friday,
  afternoon highs in the 70s

- Patchy fog may occur in low lying areas tonight into tomorrow
  morning.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Latest surface analysis depicts surface high pressure
centered near the Northeast while ridging extends back into Indiana.
Large scale subsidence from the surface high will continue to
promote quiet weather conditions through the overnight. Satellite
imagery shows high clouds streaming across Indiana. These clouds are
associated with an upper trough pushing through tonight. No
precipitation is expected as subsidence induced dry air remains in
the low-mid levels. Forecast soundings support this showing very dry
air in the low-mid levels. There is a low chance for patchy ground
fog to develop in climatologically favored locations towards
daybreak due to light winds and clearing skies late.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The Ohio Valley still remains beneath the influence of a strong area
of high pressure over the SE CONUS. That said, troughing and
continued CVA over the Upper Mississippi Vally this week will work
to break down the ridge resulting in a slowly progressing long wave
pattern throughout the long term.  In the meantime, broad subsidence
and surface high pressure to the east will keep conditions quiet
through the work week.

Winds will remain weak today, but starting tomorrow, slight
increases in the pressure gradient due to pressure depletion over
the Plains and Upper Midwest will allow for a more consistent light
breeze out of the S/SW. This should start to mitigate the diurnal
fog development we`ve been experiencing over the last few nights.
On Thursday, there should be enough mid to low level flow and an
increase in PBL mixing for occasional gusts of 13-17kt during the
afternoon. This consistent SW flow will also provide a slight
warming trend with afternoon highs approaching 80 by Thursday.

Ensemble guidance is starting to pick up on the development of a
modest 850-700mb low late Friday through Sunday passing through the
Ohio Valley late Saturday into Sunday. While uncertainty on
magnitude and placement is still high, there is enough mid level
moisture return to warrant increase PoPs for Saturday night. Cannot
rule out rain for Saturday evening, but there should be enough
antecedent dry air to evaporate initial rainfall attempts holding off
measurable rain until well into Saturday night.

As the ridge breaks down late this week through the weekend, a more
progressive longwave pattern is expected to develop. This will
likely place deeper troughing over the central CONUS by early next
week with increased chances for precipitation and larger temperature
fluctuations likely for central Indiana to begin November.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy MVFR Fog possible Wednesday morning at KLAF

Discussion:

Surface high pressure remains across the region with weak upper wave
passing through. This is resulting in VFR conditions with SCT to BKN
cirrus throughout the TAF period. Due to calm winds overnight,
patchy MVFR fog is possible at KLAF and KHUF tomorrow morning, but
confidence in duration and coverage is low at this time.

Winds tomorrow will increase slightly out of the SW. Occasional
gusts to 15kt cannot be ruled out, but look sporadic enough to avoid
inclusion.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Updike