023
FXUS63 KIND 101816
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
216 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/t-storms possible late this afternoon and
  overnight. Gusty winds and localized flooding possible.

- Hot and humid today and Thursday. Heat indices between 100 and 105
  degrees.

- Thunderstorms likely again late Thursday into Thursday night.
  Strong to severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with near average
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The pattern aloft is characterized by anomalous ridging over the
eastern US and into Canada with troughing over the western US. A
slow-moving vort max displaced from the jet stream meanders over the
Great Lakes. This feature is what has been bringing the near daily
rain chances to Indiana lately. As the western trough moves
eastward, the vort max will eject northeastward. Southwesterly aloft
then intensifies and a warming trend is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be near 90, with dew
points into the low to mid 70s. Heat indices between 100 and 105 are
possible, which may lead to enhanced heat risk for vulnerable
populations.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible once again today, mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours. Despite minimal forcing, it doesn`t
take much in such a humid environment to generate some convective
activity. Buoyant forces alone can get the job done. However, since
this is the case it will be hard to pin point exactly where these
showers/storms develop. Activity likely remains isolated to
scattered during the afternoon.

Things change as we head into tonight. Convection initiated from the
approaching trough may propagate southeastward out of Illinois. This
activity is likely to be more organized, especially if it develops a
cold pool and can consolidate into a line. Guidance does not
indicate an abundance of shear, so any line of storms may tend to
become outflow dominant as it heads deeper into Indiana. Strong
gusty winds are possible before this happens. Additionally, given
recent rainfall a flooding threat could again materialize.

Another round of convection associated with a wave ejecting from the
broader trough looks to arrive late Thursday. Guidance shows a bit
more energy in the atmosphere which could lead to severe
thunderstorms at times, especially northwestern portions of central
Indiana. Like Wednesday evening, storms likely become outflow
dominant as they head southeast away from the best forcing and
shear. Strong to severe wind gusts and localized flooding are the
primary hazards.

Once that system and its cold front pass through late Thursday
night, a transition to a cooler and less active pattern appears
likely. Broad troughing aloft looks to persist this weekend and
into next week, with near-average temperatures (highs near 80 and
lows near 60) along with lower humidity. A few weak waves embedded
within the broader trough may bring rain chances on Sunday and then
again on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. These are subtle
features and are hard to pin point this far out. So we will maintain
only chance PoPs next week until the signal become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Impacts:

-Gusty winds from SW this afternoon, between 20-25kt.

-Showers/storm chances return after 00z.

Discussion:

There is a blanket of scattered Cu across central Indiana this
afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period but
coverage of the low Cu may occasionally increase enough to to MVFR.
Other worsened condition potential, although low confidence, would
be with the next round of showers and storms expected tonight where
stronger cells could bring MVFR to isolated IFR conditions.

SW winds todays with gusts up to 25 knots are possible at times
during the afternoon hours.

Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop during the evening and into
the overnight. Not the highest confidence in how widespread the
thunder coverage will be so have kept to VCTS for a few hours
tonight. Additionally, showers/storms may continue into the night as
activity from the low pressure to our northwest spreads
southeastward. Showers are expected to come to an end by 12z
Thursday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff