745
FXUS63 KIND 231323
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
923 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunder chances Friday and Friday night. Isolated strong
  to marginally severe storms are possible Friday afternoon.

- More showers and storms will return Monday, with a greater
  chance for severe weather at that time.

- Near to above normal temperatures through early next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Only notable change made to the ongoing forecast was to bump up
sky conditions across the eastern and northeastern counties where
some scattered stratocu is moving to the northeast. Temperatures are
already rising into the mid 60s with dew points in the mid 50s. The
main focus in the near term will be tracking a decaying line of
storms tonight as it moves into the forecast area towards the
morning hours tomorrow. Overnight CAM runs are struggling on the
timing of the line with uncertainty as to the strength of the cold
pool and how it would impact line propagation speeds. They do have
good agreement that the line is weakening which makes since
considering the diurnal timing and the gradually weakening LLJ and
the weak mid-level ridging that the line is moving into.

Current thoughts closely match the overnight forecast with arrival
time being near daybreak with a lull during the morning hours before
additional development occurs during the afternoon and evening hours
and more likely towards the eastern portions of the forecast area,
potentially near residual boundaries from overnight convection.
Additional adjustments to the forecast may be needed for the
afternoon package depending on the changes in the 12/18Z model
suites with overall forecast confidence likely to remain fairly low
until thunderstorm initiation occurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today...

An old boundary is keeping clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles near the far northeast forecast area early this
morning. This boundary may linger in the predawn hours, but then it
should get pushed off to the northeast. Odds of rain though are low
enough to keep a dry forecast.

Otherwise, upper ridging will bring dry and warm conditions. A few
to scattered cumulus may pop up, and high clouds will pass through
at times. Based on recent performance, nudged up guidance for highs,
which are forecast to be in the lower 80s. Mixing will likely drive
dewpoints down below guidance. The mixing will also bring wind gusts
near 25 mph this afternoon.

Tonight through Friday...

Much of the night will be quiet. However, late tonight into Friday
an upper trough will rotate around an upper low and bring forcing
along with a cold front to the area. Moisture arriving on southwest
winds will be adequate enough for rain.

However, there remain questions on storm coverage and intensity on
Friday. The initial round of showers and storms will likely be
diurnally weakening as they move in early on Friday. Some of the
rain may dissipate as it moves east if it weakens enough.

Afternoon heating may allow what`s left of the convection to
increase in coverage and intensify before it exits the area to the
east, or new convection may develop on leftover boundaries and
additional forcing from the front.

This additional development and intensity will also be influenced by
residual cloud cover from the morning rain. If clouds clear enough,
instability may be enough to interact with decent but weakening
winds aloft to cause an isolated strong to marginally severe storm
across the eastern forecast area. The threat would be damaging winds.

Since there are a number of caveats, confidence in coverage of
convection as well as intensity of convection is lower than average.
Will keep the high guidance PoPs for now, but these may need to be
lowered at some point.

Saturday and Sunday...

Surface high pressure will provide quiet weather this weekend. Highs
will be in the 70s.

Monday and beyond...

Another upper trough and surface cold front will move through on
Monday. This system will be stronger than the ones before and may
produce some severe weather depending on exactly how things
progress. Both analogs and machine learning forecasts are showing a
threat for severe across central Indiana.

Another cold front will bring more rain chances to the area
Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal on Monday, but closer to
normal or a little below normal readings will occur Tuesday into
Thursday.

There remains the potential for much cooler temperatures to open May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts around 20kt this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Some cumulus will pop up this afternoon, otherwise high clouds will
move through from time to time. Winds will increase during the
morning, with gusts to around 20kt expected this afternoon.

Weakening convection may get close to KLAF by 12Z Friday, but
confidence is not high enough to mention anything that far out.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50